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Global markets navigate political fault lines as technical rebound meets institutional crosscurrents

Global markets navigate political fault lines as technical rebound meets institutional crosscurrents

While US markets observed the Labour Day holiday, the quiet trading session masked underlying tensions simmering across multiple continents.

Europe on edge: France’s political turmoil spreads to bonds

European bond markets experienced broad-based weakness, particularly in France, where the spectre of a confidence vote threatening the stability of the government sent ripples through sovereign debt markets. The spread between French and German 10-year yields, a critical gauge of perceived risk within the Eurozone’s core, stabilised at 79 basis points. This figure, while slightly below the August 27 peak of 82 basis points, the highest level since January, remains deeply concerning.

Historically, such widening indicates heightened investor anxiety about fiscal sustainability and political cohesion. The French situation is not merely a domestic issue; it directly impacts the broader European project. A collapse of the current government could derail crucial budget negotiations and reignite fears about the Eurozone’s structural fragility, potentially forcing the European Central Bank into an uncomfortable position between managing inflation and preventing a sovereign debt flare-up.

The market’s nervousness reflects a very real possibility that political paralysis could lead to delayed fiscal adjustments, increasing the risk of a ratings downgrade and further capital flight from French assets.

Indonesia’s market shock: Politics trigger capital flight

Turning eastward, Indonesia emerged as a focal point of volatility. Its main stock index, the Jakarta Composite Index, plummeted 3.6 per cent on Monday, marking the steepest single-day decline in nearly five months. This sharp selloff was directly attributable to escalating political tensions following the recent presidential election.

The specific nature of these tensions involves contested results and legal challenges that have cast doubt on the smooth transition of power, a critical factor for emerging market stability. Investors reacted swiftly and severely, withdrawing capital perceived as exposed to potential policy uncertainty or social unrest.

The immediate consequence extended beyond equities; yields on Indonesia’s 10-year government bonds surged to their highest level in almost three weeks. Rising bond yields signal increased borrowing costs for the government and corporations, tightening financial conditions within the economy.

This dual pressure on stocks and bonds creates a challenging environment for the Bank of Indonesia, which must now weigh the need to potentially support the rupiah and contain inflation against the risk of further stifling economic growth. Indonesia’s vulnerability highlights a recurring theme in emerging markets where political instability can rapidly translate into significant financial market stress, deterring foreign investment and increasing the cost of capital across the board.

Commodities react to sanctions and safe-haven demand

Commodity markets displayed a more mixed picture. The US Dollar Index held relatively steady at 97.81, reflecting a temporary pause in the greenback’s recent trajectory as traders awaited key US economic data. Gold, however, saw a modest increase of 0.8 per cent, climbing to US$3476 per ounce.

This movement suggests a slight shift towards safe-haven assets, possibly driven by the European political anxieties and broader global uncertainties, even if the US market holiday limited overall activity. Brent crude oil futures rose 1.0 per cent to settle at US$68 per barrel.

This gain stemmed from a specific supply disruption: Saudi Arabia and Iraq halted crude oil shipments to a refinery in western India following European Union sanctions. While the immediate impact on global supply appears contained, it underscores the persistent vulnerability of energy markets to geopolitical friction and the complex interplay of international sanctions.

The incident serves as a reminder that regional political conflicts can quickly constrict supply chains, creating localised price spikes even amidst generally stable global oil fundamentals. Early Tuesday trading saw Asian equity indices open higher, potentially reflecting a degree of relief or positioning ahead of anticipated US economic data releases later in the week, though this initial move requires confirmation as trading volumes increase.

Crypto divergence: Bitcoin finds support, Ethereum stumbles

The cryptocurrency sector presented a stark contrast between Bitcoin and Ethereum, revealing divergent market dynamics.

Bitcoin edged up 0.81 per cent over the past 24 hours to US$109,151, slightly outperforming the broader crypto market which saw only a negligible 0.03 per cent gain. This minor recovery, while modest, carries significance as it occurred against a backdrop of a 3.5 per cent monthly decline.

The technical structure provided the immediate catalyst. Bitcoin stabilised just above a critical pivot point at US$108,804 after its Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated oversold conditions, climbing from 38.59 to 40.56. This technical rebound suggests short-term traders actively bought the dip near this psychological and technical support level, anticipating a bounce.

Simultaneously, institutional activity offered a glimmer of positive sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial inflows totalling US$550 million during the week, a notable figure given the prevailing market uncertainty. This institutional accumulation, even amidst volatility, signals continued long-term conviction from major players, providing a structural underpinning for the asset. However, the broader technical picture remains cautious.

Bitcoin continues to trade below all key moving averages, including the 7-day Simple Moving Average at US$110,039, indicating that the dominant momentum trend is still bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, while showing slowing selling pressure at -625, remains firmly in negative territory.

The critical juncture now lies at the US$110,000 psychological and technical resistance level. A sustained break above this mark could trigger significant short-covering and attract fresh buying, potentially altering the near-term trajectory. Conversely, failure to hold above US$108,804 risks a retest of the June swing low near US$107,271, deepening the correction.

Ethereum told a markedly different story, falling 2.26 per cent to US$4,307.74 and significantly underperforming the broader market. Two primary forces drove this weakness. First, a decisive technical breakdown occurred as Ethereum breached the critical support zone at US$4,350 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average around US$4,342. Such breaks often trigger automated stop-loss orders from algorithmic trading systems, accelerating the downward move.

The technical indicators confirmed the bearish shift. The RSI dipped to 42.24, showing weakening momentum, while the MACD histogram at -60.16 exhibited bearish divergence, meaning the price made a lower low but the momentum indicator did not confirm it strongly, often a sign of exhaustion before a potential reversal, though currently reinforcing the downtrend.

The immediate path of least resistance points lower, with the next significant support identified at the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near US$4,344. A decisive close below this level could propel the price towards the stronger 50 per cent Fibonacci support at US$4,155. The second major factor was a substantial outflow from Ethereum ETFs.

On August 18, a significant US$196.6 million was withdrawn from these newly launched products, effectively reversing the positive momentum generated by earlier institutional interest. This outflow directly increased sell-side pressure in the spot market.

Compounding this, large holders, often termed whales, reduced their Ethereum holdings by approximately 1.2 million ETH, representing a value of roughly US$5 billion over the preceding 30 days. Such movements by major players historically erode market confidence and can trigger follow-on selling.

However, a nuanced detail offers a potential counterbalance. Smaller addresses, holding between 10 and 100 ETH often categorised as “sharks” representing active retail or smaller institutional players, accumulated a substantial 4.4 million ETH during the same period.

This suggests that while large entities retreated, a different segment of the market saw value at lower prices, potentially establishing a floor. The long-term picture retains a stabilising element, as approximately US$6.3 billion worth of Ethereum remains locked within the ETF structures, providing a foundational level of institutional support even during periods of outflow volatility.

A fragile global balance ahead

The convergence of these disparate market movements paints a picture of a global financial system operating under significant strain but not yet in crisis.

Political risks in Europe and Asia are actively pricing in potential instability, forcing investors to demand higher compensation for perceived sovereign and emerging market risks. Commodity markets react to both geopolitical friction and the underlying strength or weakness of the US dollar.

Within the volatile cryptocurrency sector, the divergent paths of Bitcoin and Ethereum underscore the maturation of the market. Bitcoin increasingly demonstrates characteristics of a macro asset, reacting to broader risk sentiment and attracting institutional capital flows even during downturns, while Ethereum remains more susceptible to technical breakdowns and specific product dynamics like ETF flows.

Traders globally are now intensely focused on upcoming US economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report. This data will be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates. A stronger-than-expected report could delay anticipated rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and increasing pressure on risk assets including equities and cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, weaker data could accelerate expectations for monetary easing, potentially providing relief across risk markets. The current environment demands constant vigilance. Thin holiday trading can amplify moves, political risks can escalate rapidly, and technical levels can trigger significant momentum shifts.

The stability observed in some areas, like the US Dollar Index, feels provisional, dependent on the next data point or political development. Investors must navigate a landscape where traditional correlations can fracture under stress, and localised political events can have outsized global financial repercussions.

The coming weeks will test whether the current market structure can absorb these pressures or if the underlying tensions will coalesce into a broader reassessment of risk across multiple asset classes. The path forward hinges on the interplay between political resolution, central bank communication, and the resilience of technical support levels holding firm against waves of selling pressure.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-navigate-political-fault-lines-as-technical-rebound-meets-institutional-crosscurrents-20250902/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

TradFi feels the chill, crypto heats up: US slowdown meets Asia’s digital surge

TradFi feels the chill, crypto heats up: US slowdown meets Asia’s digital surge

The recent retreat in global risk sentiment, driven by a cocktail of weaker-than-expected US economic data and shifting investor moods. The numbers coming out of the US last week painted a concerning picture: manufacturing growth slowed more than anticipated, services took an unexpected dive into contraction territory, and consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, slumped to its lowest level since November 2023.

Add to that the spectre of rising inflation expectations, and it’s no surprise that markets reacted with a collective wince. Major US equity indices ended Friday in the red, with the MSCI US index dropping 1.8 per cent, led by steep declines in Consumer Discretionary (down 2.7 per cent) and Information Technology (down 2.5 per cent). Treasury yields also pulled back, with the 10-year dipping seven basis points to 4.42 per cent and the 2-year falling 6 basis points to 4.20 per cent.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index edged up 0.2 per cent, hitting a high of 106.74 before settling at 106.61. Gold, despite a slight 0.1 per cent dip on Friday due to profit-taking, is still on track for an eighth consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by safe-haven demand tied to uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals. Brent crude, however, slid 2.7 per cent, reflecting jitteriness over a potential Ukraine peace deal.

Over in Asia, the mood was a bit more upbeat, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index climbing 1.76 per cent to notch a sixth straight week of gains, powered by a rally in Chinese tech stocks—Hang Seng soared 4.0 per cent, CSI 300 rose 1.3 per cent, and TAIEX gained 1.0 per cent. Germany’s election results, announced this morning, aligned with polls, with Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc taking nearly 29 per cent and the far-right Alternative for Germany doubling its share to over 20 per cent. Asian markets opened mixed today, but US equity futures suggest a rebound might be on the horizon.

Let’s unpack this a bit.

TheUS data from S&P Global was a double whammy—manufacturing PMI for February came in weaker than economists had hoped, signaling a slowdown in one of the economy’s key engines. Even more surprising was the services PMI, which flipped into contraction after months of resilience. This isn’t just a blip; it’s a red flag that the US economy might be losing steam faster than anticipated.

The University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropping to its lowest in over a year only adds fuel to the fire. Consumers are clearly rattled, and the culprit seems to be inflation expectations creeping higher. With Trump’s tariff threats looming large—potentially slapping hefty duties on imports from China and elsewhere—households and businesses alike are bracing for higher costs. That fear is palpable in the equity markets, where riskier sectors like Consumer Discretionary and Info Tech bore the brunt of the sell-off.

Investors appear to be rotating out of growth stocks and into safer bets, as evidenced by the drop in Treasury yields. Lower yields typically signal a flight to safety, though the modest uptick in the US Dollar Index suggests some lingering confidence in the greenback as a haven currency amid global uncertainty.

Gold’s performance is particularly telling. Even with Friday’s slight retreat, its eight-week winning streak underscores how jittery investors are. Trump’s tariff talk isn’t just a domestic issue—it’s a global one. If he follows through, we could see supply chain disruptions, higher input costs, and a ripple effect across commodity markets. Gold thrives in times like these, and its resilience despite profit-taking shows that safe-haven demand isn’t going anywhere.

Brent crude’s decline, on the other hand, reflects a different dynamic. The prospect of a Ukraine peace deal could ease geopolitical tensions and reduce oil supply risks, but the uncertainty is keeping traders on edge. A 2.7 per cent drop isn’t catastrophic, but it’s enough to signal that energy markets are grappling with mixed signals.

Asia’s story offers a glimmer of hope amid the gloom. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index’s 1.76 per cent bounce on Friday, driven by Chinese tech giants, suggests that some pockets of the global economy are still finding their footing. The Hang Seng’s 4.0 per cent surge was a standout, fueled by optimism around China’s tech sector, which has been clawing back ground after years of regulatory crackdowns.

The CSI 300 and TAIEX followed suit, though gains were more modest at 1.3 per cent and 1.0per cent, respectively. This resilience could be a sign that Asian markets are decoupling—at least temporarily—from US woes. China’s stimulus measures and a weaker yuan might be giving exporters a boost, while tech firms benefit from renewed investor appetite. That said, Monday’s mixed start in Asian equities hints that the rally might not have legs unless US markets stabilise.

Switching gears to Europe, Germany’s election results are worth a closer look. Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc securing nearly 29 per cent of the vote isn’t a shock—polls had been pointing that way for weeks. What’s more eyebrow-raising is the Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubling its share to over 20 per cent. The far-right’s gains signal a growing populist undercurrent that could complicate Merz’s coalition-building efforts.

A Merz-led government might lean toward fiscal conservatism and tougher trade stances, which could clash with Trump’s tariff agenda and add another layer of uncertainty to global markets. For now, though, the immediate market impact seems muted—Asian equities didn’t flinch much this morning, and US futures are pointing to a higher open, suggesting traders are more focused on domestic data than Berlin’s political shuffle.

Then there’s the crypto angle, which feels like a subplot that’s gaining traction. Deribit’s push into Hong Kong is a fascinating development. The city, alongside Singapore, is racing to become Asia’s crypto hub, and Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric is fanning the flames. Deribit’s chief commercial officer, Jean-David Péquignot, hit the nail on the head—Hong Kong’s appeal lies in its status as a financial nexus and its growing pool of family offices and asset managers dabbling in digital assets. This isn’t just about retail speculation anymore; institutional interest is picking up, and Hong Kong wants a piece of the pie.

Singapore’s in the game too, with both cities rolling out regulatory frameworks to lure crypto firms. The broader market, however, is showing some cracks—AI Agents like ai16z, Fartcoin, and Turbo tanked over five per cent in the last 24 hours, though AIXBT bucked the trend with a 4.06 per cent gain. Ethereum’s holding steady, up 0.58 per cent, thanks in part to buzz around the Ethereum Ecosystem Conference.

But the real wild card is Ye’s “Swasticoin” stunt. His now-deleted posts teasing a token launch next week—after years of slamming similar projects—reek of provocation. Whether it’s a serious move or just Kanye being Kanye, it’s a reminder of how chaotic and hype-driven the crypto space can be. Investors would be wise to steer clear until the dust settles.

So, what’s my take on all this?

The retreat in global risk sentiment feels like a natural response to a US economy that’s flashing warning signs. Manufacturing and services data don’t lie—growth is slowing, and consumers are spooked. Trump’s tariff threats are amplifying the unease, pushing investors toward gold and away from equities. Asia’s resilience is a bright spot, but it’s fragile—dependent on China’s tech momentum and broader market stability.

Germany’s election adds a political twist, though it’s not the main event yet. And the crypto boom in Hong Kong and Singapore? It’s exciting, but the Ye drama underscores the sector’s volatility. We’re in a choppy phase—markets hate uncertainty, and there’s plenty of it to go around.

My gut says we’ll see more turbulence before any clear trend emerges, but if US futures are right, a short-term bounce could be in the cards. Long term, though, it’s anyone’s guess until we get more clarity on Trump’s policies and the US economic trajectory. Stay sharp—this ride’s far from over. Hope you like my observations for 24 February 2025.

 

Source: https://e27.co/tradfi-feels-the-chill-crypto-heats-up-us-slowdown-meets-asias-digital-surge-20250224/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Anndy Lian Meets Crypto Curry Club: Trading, Investing And The Lessons Learned Along The Way

Anndy Lian Meets Crypto Curry Club: Trading, Investing And The Lessons Learned Along The Way

Erica Stanford, Founder of Crypto Curry Club meets Anndy Lian, book author and intergovernmental blockchain expert. They talked about trading, investing and other lessons learnt when dealing with crypto.

It’s hard to miss news of the meteoric rise in prices for several coins but crypto’s nature consists of a lot of plunges along the way due to its volatility and unpredictability and one of the biggest challenges for investors when it comes to crypto is to not get caught up in the hype. This is especially so for now that we live in an era where a tweet can easily dictate its rise and fall.

If you’re tempted to invest or are looking to have a little exposure to crypto in your portfolio, Anndy Lian, Chairman of BigONE Exchange lets you in on what to consider before taking the leap.

Give us an overview of all the different ways for people and institutions to get involved in crypto. What are some of the different ways that are being offered on the BigONE Exchange?
[00:01:59] Anndy Lian

Do you see any new trends in terms of what type of people or users are being drawn to these products and strategies?
[00:05:17] Anndy Lian

What methods would you say you see to mitigate with as less risk as possible if somebody is new to crypto and sort of cautious to get in?
[00:08:39] Anndy Lian

How do you see institutional investment in crypto going?
[00:13:21] Anndy Lian

What else do you see needs to come in for crypto to be fully ideal for new investors, but also for institutional money aside from the regulation and ease of use?
[00:19:26] Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an all-rounded business strategist in Asia. He has provided advisory across a variety of industries for local, international, public listed companies and governments. He is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur, book author, investor, board member and keynote speaker.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. He is also the Chairman, Asia for BigONE Exchange. BigONE is a global cryptocurrency exchange that provides a platform for trading various cryptocurrencies. It was founded in 2017 and registered in the Netherlands. The group operates in Russia, Brazil, Vietnam, Seychelles, Singapore, Japan, and Indonesia, providing marketing, investment, and blockchain technology research & development.

At Crypto Curry Club, we create opportunities to build meaningful relationships, and exchange value through shared experiences on a range of topics from Blockchain, Digital Assets, Crypto to Tech for Sustainability. The club connects like-minded individuals to come together and affect real change that innovates our future while driving businesses forward.

More information about Crypro Curry Club can be found at https://www.cryptocurryclub.com/. You can visit Anndy at his personal page at https://anndy.com. BigONE Exchange’s information can be found at https://big.one.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j