April 13th, 2026

The alarming reason crypto now moves like gold but falls like stocks

Financial markets worldwide faced significant pressure this week as escalating geopolitical tensions triggered a broad-based retreat from risk assets. The cryptocurrency market declined 1.17 per cent to reach US$2.42T over a 24-hour period, moving in lockstep with traditional equities and commodities in what analysts describe as a classic risk-off response to mounting global uncertainty. This synchronised movement reveals the extent to which digital assets have become integrated into the broader financial system, with crypto now showing a remarkable 94 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 and an 88 per cent correlation with gold.

The catalyst for this market-wide decline emerged from the collapse of US-Iran peace talks and the subsequent announcement of a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12. This dramatic escalation sent oil prices surging nearly eight per cent to cross US$104 per barrel, reigniting fears of supply disruptions and asymmetric inflation shocks that could derail the global economic recovery. Traditional equity markets responded immediately to the heightened tensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 269.23 points to close at 47,916.57, representing a decline of 0.56 per cent. The S&P 500 slipped 7.77 points to 6,816.89, down 0.11 per cent, while Asian markets bore the brunt of the selling pressure. The Nikkei 225 plummeted 477.85 points to 56,446.26, a drop of 0.84 per cent. Only the Nasdaq Composite managed to post gains, rising 80.48 points to 22,902.9 for a 0.35 per cent increase, while the FTSE 100 Index edged up 0.03 per cent to 10,600.53 despite falling 2.95 points in absolute terms.

What makes this particular sell-off noteworthy is the degree to which cryptocurrency has shed its reputation as an uncorrelated alternative asset class. The 94 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 indicates that digital assets now move almost in perfect tandem with traditional equities during periods of market stress. Even more telling is the 88 per cent correlation with gold, traditionally considered the ultimate safe haven during geopolitical crises. This suggests that investors are treating crypto as a risk asset rather than a hedge, liquidating positions across the board as they seek to reduce exposure to volatile markets. The implication is profound for those who believed cryptocurrency would serve as a portfolio diversifier during times of global instability.

Ethereum faced particular headwinds during this downturn, falling 3.65 per cent as asset-specific pressures compounded the broader market weakness. The cancellation of Ether Machine’s planned US$1.5B Nasdaq listing removed a significant vote of confidence in the institutional adoption of Ethereum-based ventures. Large treasury sales by entities like Trend Research added further selling pressure, suggesting that even sophisticated institutional players are reducing their exposure amid the uncertainty. Ethereum’s ability to hold the US$2,100 to US$2,200 support zone has become critical for the broader altcoin market, as a break below this level could trigger additional cascading liquidations across smaller cryptocurrencies.

The timing of this geopolitical crisis could not be worse for risk assets. Wall Street is shifting its focus to Q1 earnings season, with analysts projecting profit growth of roughly 12 per cent, marking the weakest performance since mid-2025. Goldman Sachs kicks off the major financial reporting cycle today, and investors will scrutinise every word for indications of how the banking sector is navigating the twin challenges of geopolitical instability and persistent inflation concerns. The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings also begin this week, with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warning of potential downgrades to global growth forecasts due to the ongoing conflict. This confluence of negative catalysts creates a challenging environment for any sustained market recovery.

Looking ahead, the cryptocurrency market faces several critical inflexion points that will determine whether this decline represents a temporary setback or the beginning of a deeper correction. The SEC and CFTC roundtable on the CLARITY Act scheduled for April 16 could provide regulatory clarity that stabilises market sentiment, though investors should not expect transformative announcements from what is likely to be a preliminary discussion.

From a technical perspective, the market is currently testing the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$2.42T. Holding above the US$2.39T level, which represents the 38.2 per cent retracement, is crucial for short-term stability. A break below US$2.34T would signal that deeper correction risks are materialising, potentially opening the door to further downside.

The path forward hinges on two primary factors: whether geopolitical tensions subside and whether regulatory developments provide reassurance to institutional investors. A de-escalation in the Middle East or renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran could trigger a relief rally across risk assets.

Analysts warn that supply disruptions in the energy market will persist even if a ceasefire holds, meaning inflation pressures may remain elevated for longer than markets currently anticipate. This creates a challenging environment where even positive geopolitical news may not be sufficient to drive a sustained recovery if macroeconomic fundamentals continue to deteriorate.

Investors should monitor several key indicators in the coming days. Price action around the US$2.42T pivot level will reveal whether buyers are willing to step in at current valuations. Any news flow from the April 16 regulatory event could provide short-term catalysts, though the market has become increasingly sceptical of regulatory promises. Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin will indicate whether altcoin-specific pressures are abating or intensifying. The ability of traditional equity markets to stabilise despite ongoing geopolitical tensions will also influence crypto market sentiment, given the high correlation between these asset classes.

The current market environment demands caution and discipline from investors. The coordinated sell-off across cryptocurrencies, equities, and commodities demonstrates that no asset class exists in isolation during periods of systemic stress. Those who viewed cryptocurrency as a hedge against traditional market volatility have received a stark reminder that digital assets remain firmly embedded in the global financial system, subject to the same macroeconomic forces that drive traditional markets.

The coming weeks will test whether the crypto market can establish support at current levels or whether further downside awaits as geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties continue to unfold. Market participants must remain vigilant, focusing on concrete data rather than speculative narratives, as the intersection of geopolitics, regulation, and institutional behaviour continues to shape the trajectory of digital assets in an increasingly interconnected global economy.

Source: https://e27.co/the-alarming-reason-crypto-now-moves-like-gold-but-falls-like-stocks-20260413/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 7th, 2025

Trump’s policy effect: From semiconductors to Bitcoin, how government moves are shaping markets

News of US President Donald Trump imposing a 100 per cent levy on semiconductor imports, paired with exemptions for companies relocating production to the US, has sparked a wave of optimism among investors. This development has lifted global risk sentiment and fuelled a rally in US stock markets, especially in big tech.

At the same time, the Bank of England’s anticipated interest rate cut, mixed signals from US Treasuries, a weakening US dollar, and movements in commodities like gold and Brent crude paint a complex picture. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has caught attention with a modest rebound, bolstered by surging ETF inflows, technical support, and corporate accumulation.

Let’s unpack these interconnected events and explore what they mean for the world economy and financial markets.

Trump’s semiconductor levy: A game-changer for US markets

The announcement of a 100 per cent levy on semiconductor imports stands out as a pivotal move. Semiconductors are the backbone of modern technology, powering everything from smartphones to cars to defence systems. By slapping such a steep tariff on imports while offering exemptions to companies that shift production back to the US, Trump aims to rewire global supply chains in America’s favour.

The immediate market reaction has been telling. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7 per cent, the Dow Jones edged up 0.2 per cent, and the Nasdaq surged 1.2 per cent, with big tech stocks leading the charge. Investors clearly see this as a boon for US-based firms, especially those in the technology sector that rely heavily on these critical components.

This policy could spark a renaissance in US manufacturing. Companies that move production stateside might tap into tax breaks, create jobs, and bolster national security by reducing dependence on foreign suppliers. For tech giants, the exemptions could translate into lower costs and a competitive edge, explaining the Nasdaq’s outsized gains.

Yet, the picture isn’t all rosy. The levy could jolt global supply chains, raising costs for companies unable to relocate quickly. Many firms operate intricate networks spanning multiple countries, and uprooting those operations might prove costly or impractical. Consumers could feel the pinch too, as higher production costs trickle down to product prices.

On the geopolitical front, this move might ruffle feathers. Major semiconductor exporters like Taiwan, South Korea, and China could view the levy as a shot across the bow, potentially sparking retaliatory tariffs or trade disputes. The long-term success of this policy hinges on execution, whether companies can realistically shift production without derailing efficiency or profitability. For now, though, the market’s bullish response signals confidence in the short-term upside, even if uncertainties loom on the horizon.

Bank of England’s Rate Cut: Stimulus with Strings Attached

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England has investors on edge as it prepares to announce its policy decision on Thursday. Analysts widely expect a 25-basis-point cut, bringing the key interest rate to 4.00 per cent. This move aims to juice up the UK economy by making borrowing cheaper, encouraging businesses to invest and households to spend. After a period of tighter policy to tame inflation, this shift suggests the central bank sees room to prioritise growth.

What does this mean for the UK? Lower rates could lift demand, supporting sectors like housing and retail. Exporters might also catch a break if the British pound weakens, making UK goods more attractive overseas. However, a depreciating pound could stoke inflation by driving up import costs, a risk the Bank of England will need to monitor closely.

The decision’s ripple effects will depend on the central bank’s messaging. If it hints at more cuts ahead, markets might cheer, but any sign of hesitation could dampen the mood. For now, anticipation of this stimulus has added a layer of optimism to the global risk rally.

US treasuries and the dollar: Mixed signals abound

Back in the US, Treasury yields are sending mixed messages. On Wednesday, the 2-year yield dipped 1.1 basis points to 3.714 per cent, while the 10-year yield ticked up 1.6 basis points to 4.226 per cent. This split suggests investors expect short-term rates to stay low, perhaps reflecting faith in a dovish Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the uptick in longer-term yields points to worries about inflation or stronger growth down the road. It’s a tug-of-war between near-term caution and longer-term bets.

The US Dollar Index, or DXY, underscores this uncertainty. It dropped for a fourth straight day, landing at 98.18. Recent disappointing US economic data, like sluggish job growth or softer consumer spending, might be fueling speculation that the Fed will ease policy further. A weaker dollar boosts US exporters and multinational firms by making their goods cheaper abroad and inflating overseas earnings. Yet, it also reflects a broader shift in confidence, with investors looking beyond the dollar for returns as global risk appetite picks up.

Commodities and Asian markets: Riding the wave

Commodities offer another lens on market dynamics. Gold slipped 0.3 per cent to US$3,369 per ounce, a modest pullback after a four-day winning streak. Profit-taking likely drove the dip, but gold’s lofty price underscores its role as a haven amid uncertainty. Brent crude, meanwhile, fell 1.1 per cent to US$66.89 per barrel, nudged lower by news of a potential Trump-Putin meeting. If that summit eases geopolitical tensions over energy sanctions or conflict zones, oil’s risk premium could shrink further.

Asian stock markets, on the other hand, caught the upbeat vibe. They rallied Wednesday and opened higher Thursday, buoyed by hopes of Fed rate cuts. Cheaper borrowing in the US often floods global markets with liquidity, lifting risk assets like stocks. US equity futures echoed this sentiment, hinting at a strong open. The interplay of US policy shifts and Asian market gains highlights how interconnected the financial world has become.

Bitcoin’s bounce: Institutional faith and technical grit

Then there’s Bitcoin, which rose 0.85 per cent in the past 24 hours to US$114,592.79, shaking off a 3.23 per cent weekly slide. Three forces are at play here. First, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw US$91.52 million in net inflows on August 6, snapping a five-day outflow streak. BlackRock’s US$41.9 million and Bitwise’s US$26.35 million led the charge, pushing total ETF assets to US$146.73 billion. This flood of institutional money signals growing trust in Bitcoin’s stability, with heavyweights like BlackRock holding roughly 625,000 BTC. If inflows persist, they could anchor prices above US$115,000.

Second, Bitcoin’s technicals tell a story of resilience. It held firm at the US$112,000 support level, buoyed by the 50-day simple moving average at US$112,860 and a key Fibonacci level at US$113,455. Traders are buying dips, pushing it toward resistance at US$115,500. The RSI sits at 49.15, showing neutral momentum, but a bearish MACD hints at caution. A break above US$115,500 could eye US$117,500, while a slip below US$113,500 might test US$110,800.

Third, corporate moves are turning heads. Japan’s Metaplanet snapped up 463 BTC for US$53.7 million at US$115,895 per coin, while Tether unveiled plans to become the world’s top Bitcoin miner by 2025, aiming for 80,000 BTC. These steps shrink exchange supply and cement Bitcoin’s “digital gold” allure. Tether’s mining push, in particular, could tighten long-term supply, nudging prices higher if demand holds.

For now, the data backs a cautiously optimistic view: markets are climbing, liquidity is flowing, and innovation is humming. The threads tying it all together feel fragile, and keeping a sharp eye on the numbers will be key to navigating what’s next.

As markets climb on policy tailwinds, keeping a sharp eye on the numbers will be crucial to seizing opportunities and sidestepping pitfalls.

Source: https://e27.co/trumps-policy-effect-from-semiconductors-to-bitcoin-how-government-moves-are-shaping-markets-20250807/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

July 2nd, 2025

Gold hits US$3,339 as markets brace for Fed moves and Bitcoin’s next big drop

I find myself drawn to the complexity of this moment, a trading session marked by mixed signals, yet brimming with implications for investors worldwide.

Let’s dive into the details, explore what’s driving these shifts, and offer my perspective on where things might be headed, all grounded in the facts and data at hand.

Global risks sentiment and economic backdrop

The global risks sentiment during this recent trading session was undeniably mixed, a reflection of the myriad forces tugging at investor confidence.

On one hand, there’s optimism stemming from stronger-than-expected US economic data: May’s US JOLTS job openings surged to 4.6 per cent, signalling robust labour market demand, while the ISM Manufacturing index ticked up to 49.0, hinting at a stabilisation in industrial activity despite remaining below the expansion threshold of 50.

These figures paint a picture of an economy that’s holding its own, defying some of the gloomier forecasts that have lingered in recent months. This resilience is a reminder that the US economy often finds ways to surprise on the upside, even amid uncertainty.

Yet, this positivity is tempered by caution. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks reinforce a “wait-and-see” approach, a stance that keeps markets guessing about the Federal Reserve’s next move. His acknowledgment that a rate cut in July isn’t off the table adds a layer of intrigue, suggesting flexibility but no firm commitment.

I see this as the Fed walking a tightrope: balancing the need to support growth against the risk of overheating an economy that’s already showing strength. It’s a prudent strategy, but one that leaves investors hungry for clearer signals.

Adding to the mix is a significant legislative development: the US Senate’s razor-thin approval of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passing 51-50 with Vice President Vance casting the decisive vote. This bill now heads to the House of Representatives for a final showdown, and its outcome could ripple through fiscal policy, government spending, and market sentiment.

While the specifics of OBBBA remain broad in public discourse, its passage in the Senate signals potential shifts in economic priorities, perhaps more stimulus or infrastructure investment, that could bolster growth or stoke inflationary pressures. The House’s decision will be a litmus test for how aggressively the US leans into fiscal expansion, and I’ll be watching closely.

US markets: A tale of divergence

Against this backdrop, US stock markets closed the session with a split personality. The S&P 500 dipped by 0.11 per cent, while the NASDAQ took a sharper hit, falling 0.82 per cent, which may reflect a cooling in tech-heavy growth stocks. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shone brightly, climbing 0.91 per cent to claim the title of best performer among the trio.

It suggests that investors are rotating into value stocks or sectors less sensitive to interest rate speculation, such as industrials or financials, while taking profits in high-flying tech names. It’s a classic flight to stability in uncertain times, and I suspect the Dow’s strength is tied to solid economic data lifting confidence in traditional industries.

US Treasury yields, however, tell a different story, one of rising expectations. The 10-year UST yield edged up by 1.4 basis points, while the two-year yield jumped 5.3 basis points to 3.772 per cent. Higher yields across the curve signal that bond investors are pricing in either stronger growth, creeping inflation, or the possibility of tighter Fed policy down the road.

I lean toward a mix of the first two: the economic data supports growth, but persistent supply chain pressures and energy costs (more on that later) could be nudging inflation concerns. For bondholders, it’s a demand for better returns in a world where cash might not stay cheap forever.

Currency, commodities, and global cues

The US Dollar Index slipped by a modest 0.06 per cent, a subtle retreat that doesn’t scream panic but hints at a pause in the greenback’s dominance. In contrast, gold rallied 1.1 per cent to US$3,339 per ounce, a clear sign of its enduring allure as a safe-haven asset when sentiment wavers.

I’ve always viewed gold as the market’s emotional barometer, and its climb here feels like a hedge against the unknowns: Fed policy, legislative outcomes, and geopolitical risks.

Speaking of which, Brent crude oil rose 0.6 per cent to US$67 per barrel, a modest gain overshadowed by the looming OPEC+ meeting on July 6. Word is, the cartel might agree to pump an additional 411,000 barrels per day starting in August—a move that could ease tight supply but also cap oil’s upside.

I’m cautious here; energy markets are a wild card, and any surprises from OPEC+ could sway inflation expectations and, by extension, Fed thinking. For now, the market seems to be holding its breath.

Globally, Asian equity indices reflected the mixed mood in early trading, while US equity futures indicated a higher open. That flicker of optimism could stem from the US data or hopes of Fed accommodation; either way, it’s a tentative sign that sentiment isn’t all doom and gloom.

Bitcoin: Institutional moves and technical tensions

Now, let’s pivot to the cryptocurrency realm, where Bitcoin is stealing headlines once again. Hong Kong-based DDC Enterprise, a publicly traded food company, has secured US$528 million in fresh funding and plans to acquire 5,000 BTC over the next three years. This isn’t pocket change, it’s a bold bet on Bitcoin as a treasury asset, signalling that institutional adoption is gaining steam.

It’s a vote of confidence in crypto’s staying power, even as traditional markets grapple with their own dramas. Companies like DDC are betting that Bitcoin can hedge against inflation or currency weakening, a narrative I think holds water in today’s climate.

But the price action tells a more cautious tale. Bitcoin pulled back to US$105,250 on Tuesday after failing to breach US$109,000 over the weekend, and selling picked up pace, raising the spectre of a drop to US$104,000. We might be at a local top or entering consolidation, given the choppy trading. Let’s break down the charts to see what’s cooking.

On the daily BTC/USDT chart, Bitcoin’s caught between a downtrend line and its moving averages. The upsloping averages tilt slightly bullish, suggesting that buyers aren’t out of the game, but the RSI, hovering near neutral, shows that momentum has stalled.

If the price cracks below those averages and holds there, we’re looking at a slide to US$104,500, maybe even US$100,000, keeping it trapped in a bearish descending triangle.

But if it bounces off the averages and punches above the downtrend line, that bearish setup collapses, and we could see a run toward the inverse head-and-shoulders neckline, potentially a bullish breakout. I’m torn here; the technicals are poised for either outcome, and it’s a coin toss until momentum picks a side.

The four-hour chart sharpens the focus: Bitcoin has slipped below the moving averages, a sign that short-term traders are cashing out. The US$104,500 level is the line in the sand; buyers will fight tooth and nail to hold it, because a break could send it tumbling to US$100,000. Psychologically, that round number looms large, and I’d wager it’s where dip-buyers might step in.

Bitcoin’s at a crossroads. The institutional interest from DDC is a long-term tailwind, but near-term selling pressure could test those lower supports. If it holds US$104,500, I’d see it as a base for another push; if it folds, US$100,000 feels like a natural floor before sentiment shifts.

We’re in a volatile stew, but with sharp eyes and steady hands, there’s profit to be made. That’s my lens on this whirlwind- Complex, thrilling, and ripe for the astute.

Source: https://e27.co/gold-hits-us3339-as-markets-brace-for-fed-moves-and-bitcoins-next-big-drop-20250702/