As I unpack the current state of the cryptocurrency market, particularly with Bitcoin edging higher to US$84,000 and analysts issuing warnings of potential downturns, it’s clear that we’re navigating a fascinating yet turbulent moment in financial history.
The crypto markets rose modestly alongside US equities on Monday, with the CoinDesk 20 index climbing 2.4 per cent over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin, the bellwether of the crypto world, is trading at around US$84,000 as of today, March 18, 2025. This uptick feels like a brief sigh of relief after a rollercoaster ride, but the warnings from analysts like Joel Kruger at LMAX keep me grounded.
Kruger suggests that a sustained correction in US equities could drag Bitcoin back down to its March 2024 peak range of US$73,000 to US$74,000. It’s a sobering thought—while the market is showing some resilience, the broader economic currents could easily pull it under.
Let’s go a bit deeper.
The interplay between crypto and traditional markets has grown increasingly pronounced over the years. Bitcoin’s modest gains this week align with a pickup in global risk sentiment, buoyed by US retail sales data that, while softer than expected on the headline figure, showed strength in control group sales. This suggests a slowdown rather than a full-blown recession, which is music to the ears of investors who’ve been jittery about the health of the US consumer.
The MSCI US index advanced 0.7 per cent, with sectors like Real Estate and Energy leading the charge. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dipped slightly to 4.30 per cent, and the Dollar Index weakened by 0.3 per cent. These are subtle shifts, but they paint a picture of a market that’s cautiously optimistic, yet still bracing for what the Federal Reserve might do next.
Markets fully expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady this week, and there’s chatter that policymakers might even pause the balance sheet runoff—a move that could inject some liquidity back into the system and potentially support risk assets like Bitcoin.
But here’s where I start to feel a bit uneasy. Even with these positive signals, the crypto market isn’t out of the woods. Kruger’s warning about a potential leg down for Bitcoin isn’t just idle speculation—it’s rooted in the historical correlation between equities and crypto during periods of uncertainty.
If US stocks falter, Bitcoin could lose its footing, retreating to that US$73,000-US$74,000 range. And it’s not just Bitcoin feeling the heat. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is facing its own challenges. Standard Chartered recently slashed its 2025 price target for Ether by a whopping 60 per cent, dropping it from US$10,000 to US$4,000.
That’s a dramatic revision, and it reflects a growing skepticism about Ethereum’s near-term prospects. As of March 15, Ether was trading at US$1,937.39—well below its late 2021 peak of US$4,400. Compare that to its heyday when a digital art piece sold for 38,000 ETH (equivalent to US$69.3 million) as the world’s most expensive NFT, and you can see how far the mood has shifted.
Ethereum’s price history offers some context here. Back in 2021, it rode a wave of excitement fuelled by technological advancements like the Berlin update and the anticipation of the Ethereum Merge, which eventually rolled out in 2022. These upgrades promised lower transaction fees (or “gas prices”) and a shift to a more energy-efficient proof-of-stake system, sparking a rally that set it apart from Bitcoin’s Coinbase-IPO-driven surge.
But the collapse of FTX in late 2022 was a gut punch to the entire crypto ecosystem, and Ethereum wasn’t spared. Its ties to Decentralised Finance (DeFi)—the blockchain-based financial ecosystem that it powers—mean its fate is intertwined with the health of that sector.
DeFi has been a game-changer, cutting out intermediaries with tools like Uniswap, Maker, and Compound, but it’s also been a volatile space prone to hype and crashes. If DeFi struggles, Ethereum feels the ripple effects, and right now, the US$4,000 price target from Standard Chartered suggests a lack of confidence in a robust recovery anytime soon.
Shifting gears to the broader economic landscape, there’s a lot to unpack. Global risk sentiment is picking up, and that’s partly thanks to US retail sales data easing fears of a consumer collapse. Gold is testing the US$3,000 per ounce mark, though it pulled back slightly after the OECD downgraded its global growth forecasts, citing the impact of looming US tariffs under President Trump.
Speaking of which, Trump’s reminder that broad reciprocal tariffs—and additional sector-specific ones—will kick in on April 2, 2025, is keeping markets on edge. Brent crude oil settled at US$71 per barrel amid supply disruption risks in Yemen, adding another layer of geopolitical tension to the mix.
Over in Asia, China’s economic data for January and February 2025 beat expectations, with industrial production, retail sales, and urban fixed asset investment all showing strength. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is also rolling out measures to boost consumption, which could bolster their aggressive five per cent GDP growth target for the year. These developments suggest a two-speed global economy—one where Asia might be finding its footing while the US grapples with tariff uncertainty.
Back to crypto, there’s more news stirring the pot. South Korea’s central bank has ruled out holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset, a decision that dashes hopes of institutional adoption in that corner of the world. Meanwhile, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is in flux—acting Chair Mark Uyeda has directed staff to reconsider a proposed crypto rule change for the second time this month. It’s unclear what this means for the regulatory landscape, but it signals ongoing uncertainty that could keep investors cautious.
For me, this all adds up to a market that’s caught in a tug-of-war between optimism and caution. Bitcoin at US$84,000 feels like a tentative step forward, but the warnings of a pullback to US$73,000-US$74,000 loom large. Ethereum’s struggles, underscored by Standard Chartered’s bearish outlook, highlight the unique challenges facing altcoins in this environment.
I think we’re in a holding pattern. Bitcoin’s current bounce is encouraging, and the alignment with US equities suggests it’s still got some wind in its sails. But Kruger’s caution about a potential correction tied to stock market weakness feels all too plausible—especially with Trump’s tariffs on the horizon and the Fed’s next moves still up in the air.
Ethereum, meanwhile, is at a crossroads. Its price might not plummet to 2022 lows, but the US$4,000 target for 2025 reflects a market that’s lost some of its earlier fervor. DeFi could be the wildcard—if it regains momentum, Ethereum might surprise us yet.
“For now, though, I’d approach both Bitcoin and Ether with a mix of hope and skepticism. The data tells me there’s room for growth, but the risks—economic, regulatory, and geopolitical—are impossible to ignore.”– Anndy Lian
I’ll keep digging into the numbers and the narratives, because in a market this dynamic, the story’s far from over.
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Source: https://e27.co/tariffs-fed-moves-and-crypto-navigating-a-volatile-march-2025-20250318/
Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.
Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.
An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.
