Tag Archives: nasdaq

Tech crash 2.0: AI hype meets labour reality as Nasdaq and Bitcoin tumble in tandem

Tech crash 2.0: AI hype meets labour reality as Nasdaq and Bitcoin tumble in tandem
At the heart of this turmoil lies a potent mix of deteriorating labour market conditions, evaporating liquidity in digital asset markets, and a sharp repricing of artificial intelligence-driven equity valuations that had been stretched to unsustainable levels. The data paints a coherent picture of a market losing its nerve, with investors rapidly rotating out of speculative assets and into safer havens, even as technical indicators flash warnings of oversold conditions that may soon invite a countertrend move.

The trigger for this week’s pullback was unequivocally the labour market report from Challenger, Grey & Christmas, which revealed that US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October 2025. This figure represents a staggering 175 per cent increase compared to the same month last year and marks the highest number of October layoffs since 2003.

The scale of these cuts, driven by a combination of slowing consumer and corporate spending and the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence for cost optimisation, sent shockwaves through equity markets already anxious about lofty valuations in the tech sector. The data provided tangible evidence of an economic slowdown that many investors had previously dismissed as transitory, forcing a reassessment of the resilience of the US economy in the face of persistent inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates.

This reassessment was immediately reflected in the performance of US equities on Thursday, November 6, 2025. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the selloff, plummeting 1.9 per cent, while the broader S&P 500 declined by 1.1 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.8 per cent. The sharp move lower in the Nasdaq, in particular, was a direct consequence of investors taking profits from AI-related stocks that had powered the market’s rally for much of the year.

The behaviour of the US Treasury market further validated this flight from risk. As investors sought safety, yields on government debt fell sharply. The yield on the two-year Treasury note dropped by 7.2 basis points to settle at 3.557 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year yield declined by 7.6 basis points to close at 4.083 per cent. This rally in bonds signalled growing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle may be nearing its end, or that a more severe economic downturn could be on the horizon, prompting a potential pivot in monetary policy.

The US Dollar Index, a traditional safe-haven asset, paradoxically weakened, falling by 0.5 per cent to 99.71. This counterintuitive move can be interpreted as a sign that the market’s fear is not of a global crisis that would boost demand for the dollar, but rather a more domestic US-centric slowdown. In such a scenario, the expectation of future rate cuts by the Fed outweighs the currency’s safe-haven appeal. This narrative was reinforced by the action in the commodities market.

Gold, the ultimate monetary hedge, saw its price rise to US$4,001 per ounce, a gain of 1.5 per cent, as capital rotated into a store of value perceived to be outside the direct influence of central bank policy. Conversely, oil prices weakened as the prospect of a US economic slowdown dented demand expectations. Brent crude settled at US$63.38 per barrel, down 0.2 per cent, a move exacerbated by Saudi Arabia’s decision to lower the official selling prices of its crude oil to Asian customers, a clear signal of its own concerns over future demand.

In the digital asset space, the market’s reaction was swift and severe. The crypto market fell 1.65 per cent over the last 24 hours, extending a 7.2 per cent weekly loss. This selloff was not driven by a single factor but by a perfect storm of negative catalysts. The primary trigger was a decisive technical breakdown in Bitcoin’s price structure.

For weeks, the US$100,000 level had served as a critical psychological and structural support. When Bitcoin’s price dropped below this key threshold, it activated a cascade of automated sell orders from a fragile market that had been clinging to hope. This breakdown was confirmed by its close below its 365-day moving average at US$102,000, a long-term trend indicator whose breach is a serious bearish signal for long-term investors.

Compounding this technical failure was a dramatic evaporation of market liquidity. In an environment of fear, traders became unwilling to take on risk. Derivatives volume plunged by 39 per cent in 24 hours, with open interest collapsing to its lowest level since May 2025.

The spot-to-perpetual trading ratio of 0.24, a metric that shows the dominance of leveraged trading over simple spot transactions, indicated that traders were not just selling but were also actively avoiding any form of leveraged position. This lack of liquidity amplified the price moves, creating a negative feedback loop where a small sell order could create a disproportionately large price drop due to the absence of buyers.

The behaviour of the spot Bitcoin ETFs provided the most compelling evidence of a macro-driven selloff. This week, these funds saw a staggering US$3.6 billion in net redemptions, marking one of the worst outflow streaks since their inception. This was not a retail-driven panic but a wholesale retreat by institutional investors. These large players, who are more attuned to macroeconomic signals and portfolio risk management, used the ETFs as a convenient vehicle to exit their crypto exposure en masse.

Their actions decisively tethered the fate of the entire crypto market to that of the Nasdaq, with the two assets showing a near-perfect 0.95 correlation this week. This link demonstrates that for the current market cycle, crypto is being treated not as a separate, uncorrelated asset class, but as a high-beta, risk-on component of the broader technology and growth equity complex.

The path forward for the markets is now precariously balanced on a knife’s edge. The current oversold conditions in both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin, with the latter’s RSI at a low 31.5, suggest that a short-term bounce is a distinct possibility. A sustained recovery will require a fundamental shift in the underlying narrative. For equities, that would mean evidence that the labour market is stabilising or that the Fed is ready to signal a clear pivot towards rate cuts.

For Bitcoin, the critical threshold is a decisive daily close back above the US$100,000 level to invalidate the bearish technical structure, coupled with a halt to the ETF outflows and a return of institutional confidence. Until these conditions are met, the market will remain vulnerable to any further negative macroeconomic data, and the current risk-off environment is likely to persist.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why crypto can’t escape the Nasdaq and what it means for the next 30 days

Why crypto can’t escape the Nasdaq and what it means for the next 30 days
The current market environment presents a textbook case of how macroeconomic uncertainty, structural leverage, and sector-specific stress can converge into a self-reinforcing selloff across both traditional and digital asset markets. The recent 5.32 per cent drop in crypto prices over the past 24 hours is not an isolated event but rather the culmination of three interlocking dynamics: miner distress, derivatives deleveraging, and heightened correlation with equities, particularly the Nasdaq-100. Each of these forces feeds into the other, creating a feedback loop that amplifies volatility and accelerates liquidations.

Miner capitulation stands out as one of the most critical bearish catalysts in this cycle. Publicly traded mining firms like Canaan and Hut 8 have seen their equity valuations hammered, with Canaan plunging 14.6 per cent on November 4 to close at US$1.1280 per share. This sharp decline reflects investor anxiety over the sustainability of mining operations as Bitcoin’s price hovers dangerously close to breakeven production costs. Recent data indicates that average mining costs reached US$114,233 as of November 3, while Bitcoin traded below US$101,000 by November 5.

This negative margin environment leaves miners with few options other than selling accumulated Bitcoin reserves to cover electricity, maintenance, and debt obligations. Hut 8’s Q3 2025 earnings report, which showed US$83.5 million in revenue, a 91 per cent year-over-year increase, nonetheless revealed underlying fragility. Despite strong top-line growth driven by scaling operations, the company’s aggressive 1,530 MW expansion plan introduces significant execution and financing risk in a deteriorating price environment.

When miners sell into a falling market, they exacerbate downward momentum, especially when hashprice, the revenue per terahash per second, has already collapsed by 23 per cent since October. The critical technical level to watch remains US$103,000. A decisive break below this support could trigger a wave of forced sales from marginal operators, further depressing spot prices.

Simultaneously, the derivatives market has undergone a dramatic reset. Total open interest in crypto derivatives has contracted by 27.5 per cent month-over-month, falling to US$786 billion, a clear signal that leveraged participants are rapidly de-risking. On November 4 alone, US$851 million in long positions were liquidated, predominantly on perpetual futures contracts where average leverage ratios hover around 25x on major exchanges like Binance.

The shift to negative funding rates, currently at -0.003 per cent, confirms that the market structure has flipped from bullish speculation to defensive shorting or passive hedging. Historically, sustained negative funding often precedes short squeezes, but only after sentiment reaches extreme pessimism. The spot-to-perpetual volume ratio of 0.26 underscores that price discovery is now dominated by derivatives traders reacting to macro headlines rather than organic spot demand.

This dynamic makes the market hypersensitive to external shocks, such as shifts in US Treasury yields or Federal Reserve commentary. With the 10-year yield settling at 4.083 per cent and the 2-year at 3.572 per cent, the yield curve remains inverted, a classic recession warning that weighs heavily on risk assets.

Perhaps most concerning for proponents of crypto’s digital gold narrative is its persistent correlation with tech equities. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin exhibited a 0.86 correlation with the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), directly contradicting earlier hopes of decoupling.

While some analysts had pointed to a temporary breakdown in correlation during October, the reversion to high co-movement in early November demonstrates that institutional investors still treat crypto as a high-beta tech proxy rather than an independent store of value. This linkage became evident as US equities tumbled, Nasdaq down two per cent, S&P 500 down 1.2 per cent, dragging crypto lower despite fundamentally different supply mechanics.

Meanwhile, traditional safe havens like gold rose 0.8 per cent, reinforcing the flight-to-quality behaviour that excludes volatile digital assets during risk-off episodes. The strength of the US Dollar Index, which climbed to 100.20 for a fifth consecutive day, further pressures dollar-denominated commodities, including Bitcoin, by increasing the relative cost for foreign buyers.

Taken together, these forces create a precarious equilibrium. Miner selling adds persistent spot supply pressure. Derivatives unwinding removes liquidity and amplifies moves through forced liquidations. And macro correlation ensures that any stumble in US equities instantly transmits to crypto markets. Within this turbulence lies a potential opportunity. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 20, Extreme Fear, the lowest reading since March 2025.

Historically, such extremes often coincide with local bottoms, as panic selling exhausts weak hands and creates conditions for a contrarian rebound. If Bitcoin holds above US$103,000, miners may stabilise their balance sheets, derivatives funding could normalise, and the narrative might shift from capitulation to accumulation. But if that support fails, the path of least resistance points lower, potentially toward the US$95,000 zone where mining economics become untenable for a broader swath of the network.

In either scenario, the market is undergoing a necessary cleansing, a washout that tests conviction and separates speculative froth from durable conviction. For now, all eyes remain on price action at the margin, where every candlestick carries the weight of macro fate and miner survival.

Source: https://e27.co/why-crypto-cant-escape-the-nasdaq-and-what-it-means-for-the-next-30-days-20251105/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The great decoupling: Bitcoin breaks from Nasdaq as macro forces reshape crypto

The great decoupling: Bitcoin breaks from Nasdaq as macro forces reshape crypto

The global risk sentiment appears buoyed by positive signals in US-China trade diplomacy and tangible progress in artificial intelligence deployment across enterprise and consumer sectors. These developments have provided a psychological cushion for equity markets, which responded with record-breaking closes across all three major US indices. The S&P 500 edged up 0.2 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 0.8 per cent gain, driven largely by technology stocks that continue to benefit from AI-related earnings momentum and investor enthusiasm.

Beneath this surface calm lies a more complex reality. Consumer confidence, while technically beating consensus expectations at 93.4, has nonetheless slumped to its lowest level in six months. This subtle but significant detail suggests that household sentiment is fraying even as financial markets climb. The divergence between Wall Street and Main Street has rarely been more pronounced.

Meanwhile, the bond market tells its own story of caution. US Treasuries closed narrowly mixed on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield slipping 1.4 basis points to 3.983 per cent and the yield curve flattening, a classic signal of economic uncertainty. Investors appear to be pricing in a near-term rate cut but remain wary of the Federal Reserve’s longer-term inflation outlook and policy trajectory beyond 2025.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped 0.1 per cent to close at 98.67. This modest decline reflects sustained risk appetite among global investors, but also growing anticipation ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s upcoming decision. With markets almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut, the focus has shifted from the magnitude of the move to the tone of the accompanying statement and Chair Powell’s press conference. Any hint of a less dovish stance than expected could trigger a sharp reversal in risk assets.

Commodities, too, betray underlying stress. Spot gold fell 0.7 per cent to settle at US$3,951.56 per ounce, marking a three-week low. This retreat from safe-haven assets typically signals confidence in risk markets, but in this context, it may also reflect dollar strength expectations or portfolio rebalancing ahead of the Fed.

More telling is the slide in oil prices. Brent crude tumbled 2.0 per cent to US$64.40 per barrel, pressured by persistent concerns over global demand and mounting evidence of oversupply. Weakness in crude often foreshadows broader economic softness, especially when it coincides with flattening yield curves and declining consumer sentiment.

Turning to crypto, the market declined 1.55 per cent over the past 24 hours, a move driven less by idiosyncratic factors and more by macro crosscurrents. Traders, wary of potential volatility around the Fed decision, shifted capital into stablecoins, a classic risk-off manoeuver in digital asset markets.

This flight to safety drained liquidity from spot and derivatives markets alike, exacerbating price sensitivity. The result was a cascade of forced liquidations, totalling US$552 million in just one day. Of that, US$122 million came from long positions in Ethereum, underscoring the fragility of leveraged bets in altcoins during periods of macro uncertainty.

This derivatives shakeout reveals a critical vulnerability in the current market structure. Perpetual futures funding rates plunged by 76 per cent, indicating a rapid unwinding of bullish leverage. When funding turns deeply negative or collapses in magnitude, it often signals that speculative longs have been flushed out, leaving the market in a more balanced but also more fragile state.

Ethereum’s 3.8 per cent underperformance relative to Bitcoin during this episode highlights a recurring theme. In times of stress, capital rotates toward the perceived safety of BTC, while altcoins bear the brunt of deleveraging.

Technically, Bitcoin’s rejection at the US$116,000 level proved decisive. The failure to sustain a breakout above this psychological and structural resistance triggered a cascade of stop-loss orders and algorithmic selling, which spilled over into the broader altcoin complex. The asset subsequently lost the US$114,200 support zone, breaking a key bullish trendline that had held since early October.

The total crypto market capitalisation now hovers near US$3.94 trillion, which aligns with the 50-day simple moving average, a critical inflection point. The Relative Strength Index at 52.66 suggests neutral momentum, neither oversold nor overbought, leaving the path of least resistance unclear.

What makes this juncture particularly delicate is the shifting correlation between crypto and traditional equities. Historically, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq have moved in tandem, especially during risk-on regimes. But recent data shows that correlation has flipped to negative 0.53, signaling a rare decoupling. This divergence suggests that crypto is no longer simply riding the coattails of tech stocks but is instead responding to its own set of macro and micro drivers, most notably Fed policy expectations, on-chain liquidity dynamics, and derivatives positioning.

From a strategic standpoint, the next 48 hours will be pivotal. The Federal Reserve’s communication today will likely set the tone for asset allocation decisions across all markets. A dovish cut accompanied by clear forward guidance could reignite risk appetite and catalyse a buy the dip rally in crypto, especially if liquidity returns from stablecoins to volatile assets.

Conversely, a hawkish tilt, perhaps emphasising sticky inflation or a higher-for-longer rate path, could trigger another leg down in crypto, with Bitcoin testing the US$112,000 support level and Ethereum struggling to hold above US$3,950.

For long-term participants, this volatility may represent opportunity rather than threat. The current flush of leverage creates a cleaner market structure, reducing the risk of cascading liquidations in the near term. Moreover, the macro backdrop still contains supportive elements, including AI-driven productivity gains, improving US-China relations, and a Fed that remains inclined toward easing, albeit cautiously.

The question is not whether these tailwinds exist, but whether they can overcome the immediate headwinds of policy uncertainty and technical fragility.

The market stands at a crossroads. The data paints a picture of cautious optimism tempered by real economic anxieties. Crypto, once again, finds itself caught between its aspirational narrative as a new asset class and its practical reality as a highly sensitive barometer of liquidity and risk sentiment.

The resolution of this tension will depend less on technical levels or liquidation metrics and more on the Federal Reserve’s ability to navigate the narrow path between inflation control and growth preservation. Until then, expect volatility, watch price action at key supports, and prepare for either a relief rally or a deeper correction. Both remain plausible in this finely balanced macro environment.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-great-decoupling-bitcoin-breaks-from-nasdaq-as-macro-forces-reshape-crypto-20251029/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j