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Tariffs, Fed moves, and crypto: Navigating a volatile March 2025

Tariffs, Fed moves, and crypto: Navigating a volatile March 2025

As I unpack the current state of the cryptocurrency market, particularly with Bitcoin edging higher to US$84,000 and analysts issuing warnings of potential downturns, it’s clear that we’re navigating a fascinating yet turbulent moment in financial history.

The crypto markets rose modestly alongside US equities on Monday, with the CoinDesk 20 index climbing 2.4 per cent over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin, the bellwether of the crypto world, is trading at around US$84,000 as of today, March 18, 2025. This uptick feels like a brief sigh of relief after a rollercoaster ride, but the warnings from analysts like Joel Kruger at LMAX keep me grounded.

Kruger suggests that a sustained correction in US equities could drag Bitcoin back down to its March 2024 peak range of US$73,000 to US$74,000. It’s a sobering thought—while the market is showing some resilience, the broader economic currents could easily pull it under.

Let’s go a bit deeper.

The interplay between crypto and traditional markets has grown increasingly pronounced over the years. Bitcoin’s modest gains this week align with a pickup in global risk sentiment, buoyed by US retail sales data that, while softer than expected on the headline figure, showed strength in control group sales. This suggests a slowdown rather than a full-blown recession, which is music to the ears of investors who’ve been jittery about the health of the US consumer.

The MSCI US index advanced 0.7 per cent, with sectors like Real Estate and Energy leading the charge. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dipped slightly to 4.30 per cent, and the Dollar Index weakened by 0.3 per cent. These are subtle shifts, but they paint a picture of a market that’s cautiously optimistic, yet still bracing for what the Federal Reserve might do next.

Markets fully expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady this week, and there’s chatter that policymakers might even pause the balance sheet runoff—a move that could inject some liquidity back into the system and potentially support risk assets like Bitcoin.

But here’s where I start to feel a bit uneasy. Even with these positive signals, the crypto market isn’t out of the woods. Kruger’s warning about a potential leg down for Bitcoin isn’t just idle speculation—it’s rooted in the historical correlation between equities and crypto during periods of uncertainty.

If US stocks falter, Bitcoin could lose its footing, retreating to that US$73,000-US$74,000 range. And it’s not just Bitcoin feeling the heat. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is facing its own challenges. Standard Chartered recently slashed its 2025 price target for Ether by a whopping 60 per cent, dropping it from US$10,000 to US$4,000.

That’s a dramatic revision, and it reflects a growing skepticism about Ethereum’s near-term prospects. As of March 15, Ether was trading at US$1,937.39—well below its late 2021 peak of US$4,400. Compare that to its heyday when a digital art piece sold for 38,000 ETH (equivalent to US$69.3 million) as the world’s most expensive NFT, and you can see how far the mood has shifted.

Ethereum’s price history offers some context here. Back in 2021, it rode a wave of excitement fuelled by technological advancements like the Berlin update and the anticipation of the Ethereum Merge, which eventually rolled out in 2022. These upgrades promised lower transaction fees (or “gas prices”) and a shift to a more energy-efficient proof-of-stake system, sparking a rally that set it apart from Bitcoin’s Coinbase-IPO-driven surge.

But the collapse of FTX in late 2022 was a gut punch to the entire crypto ecosystem, and Ethereum wasn’t spared. Its ties to Decentralised Finance (DeFi)—the blockchain-based financial ecosystem that it powers—mean its fate is intertwined with the health of that sector.

DeFi has been a game-changer, cutting out intermediaries with tools like Uniswap, Maker, and Compound, but it’s also been a volatile space prone to hype and crashes. If DeFi struggles, Ethereum feels the ripple effects, and right now, the US$4,000 price target from Standard Chartered suggests a lack of confidence in a robust recovery anytime soon.

Shifting gears to the broader economic landscape, there’s a lot to unpack. Global risk sentiment is picking up, and that’s partly thanks to US retail sales data easing fears of a consumer collapse. Gold is testing the US$3,000 per ounce mark, though it pulled back slightly after the OECD downgraded its global growth forecasts, citing the impact of looming US tariffs under President Trump.

Speaking of which, Trump’s reminder that broad reciprocal tariffs—and additional sector-specific ones—will kick in on April 2, 2025, is keeping markets on edge. Brent crude oil settled at US$71 per barrel amid supply disruption risks in Yemen, adding another layer of geopolitical tension to the mix.

Over in Asia, China’s economic data for January and February 2025 beat expectations, with industrial production, retail sales, and urban fixed asset investment all showing strength. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is also rolling out measures to boost consumption, which could bolster their aggressive five per cent GDP growth target for the year. These developments suggest a two-speed global economy—one where Asia might be finding its footing while the US grapples with tariff uncertainty.

Back to crypto, there’s more news stirring the pot. South Korea’s central bank has ruled out holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset, a decision that dashes hopes of institutional adoption in that corner of the world. Meanwhile, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is in flux—acting Chair Mark Uyeda has directed staff to reconsider a proposed crypto rule change for the second time this month. It’s unclear what this means for the regulatory landscape, but it signals ongoing uncertainty that could keep investors cautious.

For me, this all adds up to a market that’s caught in a tug-of-war between optimism and caution. Bitcoin at US$84,000 feels like a tentative step forward, but the warnings of a pullback to US$73,000-US$74,000 loom large. Ethereum’s struggles, underscored by Standard Chartered’s bearish outlook, highlight the unique challenges facing altcoins in this environment.

I think we’re in a holding pattern. Bitcoin’s current bounce is encouraging, and the alignment with US equities suggests it’s still got some wind in its sails. But Kruger’s caution about a potential correction tied to stock market weakness feels all too plausible—especially with Trump’s tariffs on the horizon and the Fed’s next moves still up in the air.

Ethereum, meanwhile, is at a crossroads. Its price might not plummet to 2022 lows, but the US$4,000 target for 2025 reflects a market that’s lost some of its earlier fervor. DeFi could be the wildcard—if it regains momentum, Ethereum might surprise us yet.

“For now, though, I’d approach both Bitcoin and Ether with a mix of hope and skepticism. The data tells me there’s room for growth, but the risks—economic, regulatory, and geopolitical—are impossible to ignore.”– Anndy Lian

I’ll keep digging into the numbers and the narratives, because in a market this dynamic, the story’s far from over.

—

Editor’s note: e27 aims to foster thought leadership by publishing views from the community. Share your opinion by submitting an article, video, podcast, or infographic.

 

Source: https://e27.co/tariffs-fed-moves-and-crypto-navigating-a-volatile-march-2025-20250318/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Navigating the new financial terrain: From geopolitical shifts to crypto volatility

Navigating the new financial terrain: From geopolitical shifts to crypto volatility

On February 5, 2025, the landscape of global finance has been reshaped by a mix of easing geopolitical tensions and shifts in regulatory focus, leading to a nuanced risk sentiment among investors. This change in perception comes at a time when market participants are increasingly viewing China’s approach as more measured and cautious, particularly in contrast to previous years. This perception has contributed to a positive movement in stock indices, with the MSCI US index showing a commendable 0.7 per cent increase. Sectors like Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology have been at the forefront of this rally, each gaining over 1.5 per cent in recent trading sessions.

However, not all economic indicators have been glowing. The US JOLTS job openings data, which came in below expectations, has led to a recalibration in market expectations. This has directly influenced the US Treasury yields, with both the 2-year and 10-year yields experiencing a decline. The 2-year yield dropped to 4.214 per cent, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.511 per cent. This movement in treasury yields often signals investor uncertainty about future economic growth or inflation rates, further reflected by a significant tumble in the US Dollar Index, which saw a 0.9 per cent decrease, ending a three-session rally.

Comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly have added to the narrative, suggesting that the US economy is in a stable position, which might not necessitate preemptive policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve in response to the current administration’s actions. This cautious optimism from a key Fed official underscores a belief in the resilience of the US economy amidst ongoing global negotiations and policy shifts.

Shifting focus to commodities, Brent crude oil prices edged up slightly by 0.3 per cent, as investors continue to weigh the implications of US-China trade relations and the reinforcement of sanctions on Iran. Meanwhile, gold has soared to new all-time highs, driven by safe-haven buying amid global uncertainties, illustrating the market’s jittery mood when it comes to geopolitical risks.

In Asia, the economic news was not all cautionary; Japanese nominal wages have seen an increase at the fastest pace in nearly thirty years, providing a solid backdrop for the Bank of Japan’s recent decision to hike rates. This wage growth could signal a strengthening consumer base in Japan, potentially impacting consumer spending and economic recovery. Asian equity indices responded positively to these developments, with many markets showing gains in early trading sessions.

On the other side of the globe, the cryptocurrency market has been experiencing its own set of challenges. The current administration’s move to scale back on crypto enforcement has seen the SEC reassigning lawyers from its crypto enforcement unit, marking one of the first concrete steps in a more relaxed regulatory approach towards cryptocurrencies. This could be interpreted as either a boon for innovation in the crypto space or a red flag for potential future volatility due to less oversight.

The crypto market, however, took a significant hit with the news of China investigating tech giants like NVIDIA and Google, amidst an escalating trade war. This led to a massive US$2.5 billion dump by Crypto AI traders, with the sector plunging by 8.5 per cent. The ripple effects of these investigations are not just confined to tech stocks but have a profound impact on AI-driven crypto trading algorithms, which are sensitive to regulatory news and trade policies.

Adding to the crypto market’s woes, President Trump’s Solana meme coin experienced a dramatic 37 per cent plunge, becoming the day’s biggest loser among the top 100 coins. This sharp decline underscores the volatile nature of meme coins and highlights how quickly market sentiment can shift in the cryptocurrency world, especially under the shadow of broader trade conflicts.

From my perspective, while the easing of global tensions has provided a brief respite and a boost to certain sectors, the underlying currents of geopolitical manoeuvres, regulatory shifts in cryptocurrency, and technological developments continue to create an unpredictable environment. Investors need to remain vigilant, balancing optimism with a keen eye on policy developments, especially in technology and trade sectors. The interplay between traditional markets and the burgeoning digital asset space is becoming increasingly complex, necessitating a nuanced approach to investment strategies in this new financial terrain.

As we navigate through these choppy waters, the key will be adaptability, informed decision-making, and perhaps, a cautious embrace of innovation in financial technologies, all while keeping an eye on the broader economic and political context that shapes our global markets.

 

Source: https://e27.co/navigating-the-new-financial-terrain-from-geopolitical-shifts-to-crypto-volatility-20250205/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Markets in flux: Navigating economic uncertainty

Markets in flux: Navigating economic uncertainty

On February 4, 2025, global markets faced significant volatility following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new trade policies affecting Canada, Mexico, and China. The weekend’s initial shock sent ripples of instability across international markets, prompting a swift defensive posture among investors. However, a subsequent policy pivot, offering a one-month delay for Canada and Mexico alongside hints of upcoming dialogue with Chinese President Xi Jinping, momentarily stabilised markets, though the air remained thick with uncertainty.

This oscillation in policy has profound implications beyond mere market indices or commodity fluctuations; it fundamentally alters the landscape of international trade and economic steadiness. The reaction was swift: MSCI US dipped by 0.5 per cent, with the tech sector taking the hardest hit at a 1.7 per cent decline, a testament to how intertwined these industries are with global supply chains, especially those in Asia.

The US Dollar Index, after an initial spike due to trade policy fears, retreated by 0.6 per cent, signalling a sigh of relief in the financial community. Concurrently, gold reached unprecedented heights, climbing by 0.6 per cent, as investors flocked to the safety of traditional havens amid the economic tumult. This surge in gold prices serves as a stark reminder of how quickly investor sentiment can shift towards security in uncertain times.

The bond market wasn’t immune to these shifts either. US Treasuries experienced a yield increase, with the two year yield rising by 5.2 basis points to 4.25 per cent and the 10-year yield by 1.6 basis points to 4.55 per cent. Such movements reflect a nuanced investor outlook, anticipating potential inflationary pressures or shifts in economic policy stemming from these protectionist measures.

The impact wasn’t confined to US shores. Globally, Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.0 per cent in response to the delayed trade policies affecting Canada and Mexico, major US oil suppliers, showcasing how even short-term policy adjustments can sway commodity markets worldwide.

Navigating the stormy seas of Trump’s tariff wars

In Asia, there was a glimmer of optimism with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) rising by 3.3 per cent in early trading, buoyed by the prospect of diplomatic talks between Trump and Xi. Yet, this positive outlook was tempered by the fact that Chinese markets were closed for the Lunar New Year, potentially masking a more complex reaction had trading been active.

The cryptocurrency sector also reflected this broader market unease. Bitcoin plummeted to a three-week low at US$91,441.89, signalling widespread market jitters. Meanwhile, Ethereum experienced a dramatic 25 per cent surge, juxtaposed with an unexpected endorsement from Eric Trump, highlighting the unpredictable nature of digital currencies and their susceptibility to political influences.

Amidst this economic turbulence, Federal Reserve officials like Raphael Bostic from Atlanta and Susan Collins from Boston have advocated for a cautious approach to monetary policy. Bostic’s reluctance to rush into further rate cuts, coupled with Collins’s focus on stable inflation expectations despite trade-induced price spikes, underscores a broader strategy for maintaining economic equilibrium.

As we stand at this economic juncture, the outcome of these policy manoeuvres remains uncertain. They could herald a period of stabilisation if trade negotiations succeed, or they might usher in an era of protectionism, disrupting global supply chains, inflating consumer prices, and possibly inciting retaliatory actions from impacted nations.

The current market dynamics are not merely reactions to policy but are reflective of a complex geopolitical tapestry. Observers, investors, and policymakers will keenly watch how these developments unfold, potentially shaping the global economic narrative for years to come. The need for strategic foresight, adaptability, and above all, constructive dialogue, has never been more critical in navigating this uncertain economic landscape.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-in-flux-navigating-economic-uncertainty-20250204/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j