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Bitcoin soars to US$116K: Is US$200K next thanks to Trump?

Bitcoin soars to US$116K: Is US$200K next thanks to Trump?

Global risk sentiment has cooled recently, and the reasons are pretty clear. Investors are getting nervous about an overheated market, a phrase that surfaces when asset prices surge quickly, sometimes too quickly, sparking fears of a looming correction. After a robust rally across multiple markets, many are opting to lock in gains rather than push their luck.

This shift is evident in the US stock markets, which ended mixed overnight. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1 per cent, the Dow Jones dropped 0.5 per cent, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.4 per cent. To me, this divergence paints a picture: tech enthusiasts are still betting big, but other sectors are retreating, hinting at wider unease. It feels like a party where some are still grooving, yet others are inching toward the door.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England made waves on Thursday, trimming interest rates by 25 basis points to four per cent. The decision squeaked through with a 5-to-4 vote, underscoring the economic tightrope they’re walking. Governor Bailey shed some light, suggesting borrowing costs could keep drifting down since inflation might not linger.

However, he tempered that with a warning, noting the next cut’s timing remains up in the air. I see this as the BOE’s balancing act, supporting growth without rekindling inflation. For markets, this blend of decisiveness and hesitation adds complexity. Investors crave certainty, and Bailey’s cautious tone likely didn’t soothe many jitters.

US treasuries and the dollar’s dance

In the bond world, US Treasuries stumbled on Thursday after a tepid 30-year auction. Lackluster demand drove yields higher across the curve: the 30-year yield edged up 0.6 basis points to 4.826 per cent, the 2-year yield rose 1.4 basis points to 3.728 per cent, and the 10-year yield increased 1.2 basis points to 4.250 per cent.

What’s triggering this sell-off? I’d argue it’s investors reassessing their positions. Weak demand for long-term bonds often signals worries about future inflation or doubts about growth. People want more yield to commit their cash, and that ripples outward. This ties into those overheated market concerns, suggesting some are gearing up for turbulence.

The US Dollar Index throws in a curveball. It held steady on Thursday but dipped again on Friday, marking six straight sessions of losses, the longest streak since March 2024. A softening dollar stands out because it cuts both ways. It can boost US exports and pad corporate profits, yet it also hints at waning global faith, perhaps a drift from dollar assets. Combined with the Treasury sell-off, I wonder if investors are hunting for safer or juicier returns elsewhere.

Gold, oil, and Asian markets

Commodities offer their own narrative. Gold rose 0.8 per cent to US$3,396 per ounce, capitalising on the dollar’s slide. It’s a textbook play, when the dollar weakens, gold steps up as a safe haven. I view this as investors playing defence amid the uncertainty clouding stocks and bonds.

On the flip side, Brent crude fell 0.7 per cent to US$66.43 per barrel. Traders appear to be on edge, awaiting a Trump-Putin meeting. Given Russia’s oil clout, any news there could jolt supply and prices. I’d bet this dip is more about anticipation than a demand shift.

Asian stock markets sparked some optimism, ticking up at Friday’s open. US equity futures also hinted at a firmer stateside start. After Wall Street’s mixed cues, this feels like a cautious bounce. It suggests some are wading back in, perhaps thinking the profit-taking has peaked or that moves, like the BOE’s cut, might stabilise things. Still, it’s too early to call it a turnaround, more like a breather.

Bitcoin’s moment in the spotlight

Now, let’s focus on Bitcoin, which surged 1.87 per cent to US$116,731 in the last 24 hours, outpacing the broader crypto market’s 3.27 per cent gain. That’s a notable leap, and I think three key factors are at play: US policy shifts, corporate strategies, and technical signals. Let’s unpack them.

  • US policy tailwinds

US policy is shaking things up. Trump’s push to allow crypto in 401(k) accounts is ambitious. If it happens, it could tap into US$9 trillion in retirement funds for crypto. That’s massive, and it’s got institutions buzzing. Picture millions funnelling retirement savings into Bitcoin, and it’s a demand explosion. There’s also a draft executive order aiming to prevent banks from freezing out crypto firms.

Regulatory murkiness and banking woes have long hampered crypto’s mainstream rise, so this could open the floodgates for institutional cash. Plus, the GENIUS Act, targeting stablecoin rules, is on my radar. If it passes, it could bolster crypto stability. To me, these moves scream institutional green light, and Bitcoin’s price reflects that hope.

  • Corporate Bitcoin strategies

Companies are diving in deep. Cipher Mining has launched new Texas facilities, achieving a 16.8 EH/s capacity and holding US$112 million in Bitcoin. That stash strengthens the network and shrinks supply. Less Bitcoin floating around with steady or rising demand typically lifts prices.

Then there’s WiMi, a Nasdaq firm, pouring US$212 million into Bitcoin derivatives and short-term crypto bets. That’s not just hodling, it’s a calculated play, showing corporates are embracing crypto strategically. This is Bitcoin maturing from a fringe asset to a balance-sheet staple, a bullish sign.

  • Technical breakout setup

The charts are buzzing too. Bitcoin’s been forming a bullish flag since peaking at US$123,000 in July, a sharp rise followed by a consolidation, hinting at another jump. Support is solid at the 50-day moving average of US$113,154, a level traders obsess over.

Breaking US$117,350 could target that US$123,000 high again. The RSI at 56.55 suggests room to climb, though the MACD at -444.94 flashes bearish caution. I think it’s a toss-up: a breakout could ignite a rally, but a drop below US$113,000 might spark a pullback. Traders are likely salivating over the possibilities.

My point of view

So, what’s my take? The global market’s in an odd place, edgy but not collapsing. Profit-taking and the Treasury sell-off signal hedging, not a mass exodus. The BOE’s cut and Bailey’s wariness fit a world where inflation lingers like a stubborn guest. Gold’s rise and the dollar’s dip are classic safe plays, while oil’s drop feels like geopolitical suspense. Asian markets and US futures show grit, but I’d need more to call it a trend.

Bitcoin’s the one I can’t shake. Those US policy shifts could rewrite the game, drawing in big money like never before. Corporate moves from Cipher and WiMi reinforce that heavyweights are buying in. The technicals are tantalising, poised for a move, but direction’s unclear.

I’m bullish long-term, the fundamentals are compelling, yet I’d urge traders to watch those levels closely. We’re at a junction where macro nerves collide with crypto’s breakout shot. My hunch is Bitcoin’s got staying power, but the broader market’s still sorting itself out. Stay sharp.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-soars-to-us116k-is-us200k-next-thanks-to-trump-20250808/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

What’s shaping the markets right now: AI hype, Bitcoin’s calm, and the Fed’s next move

What’s shaping the markets right now: AI hype, Bitcoin’s calm, and the Fed’s next move

Global markets are currently riding a wave of optimism, with risk sentiment surging as investors appear to shrug off a host of economic and political uncertainties. This buoyant mood stems mainly from two key drivers: the anticipation of earlier-than-expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing excitement about the potential for artificial intelligence to fuel economic growth.

Beneath this surface of confidence, there are substantial risks that could easily unsettle this delicate balance. From escalating trade tensions to shifting monetary policies and fluctuating commodity prices, the global financial landscape is anything but stable. Adding to the complexity is the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin’s price volatility has recently hit its lowest point in over a year, offering a curious contrast to the broader market dynamics.

Let’s begin with the economic and political risks that, despite being overlooked by many market participants, remain critical to understanding the current sentiment. One of the most prominent issues is the resurgence of trade tensions, highlighted by former President Donald Trump’s recent threat to raise tariffs on Indian goods substantially. His reasoning ties to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, a move that has irked US policymakers amid geopolitical strains.

This isn’t just a bilateral spat between the US and India. It has the potential to ripple across global trade networks, disrupting supply chains and increasing costs for businesses worldwide. India plays a vital role in the global economy, particularly in technology and manufacturing, so any escalation in tariffs could dampen corporate earnings and slow economic momentum. This is a reminder that geopolitical posturing can quickly translate into economic consequences, and investors ignoring this risk might find themselves caught off guard if tensions boil over.

Turning to monetary policy, the Federal Reserve’s next moves are shaping up to be a linchpin for market sentiment. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly recently indicated that the Fed might need to implement more than two rate cuts this year if the labour market weakens further and inflationary pressures from tariffs fail to materialise.

This comment caught my attention because it suggests a willingness to adopt a more supportive stance, which could bolster markets by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging investment. However, it also underscores the Fed’s challenging position. Cutting rates too aggressively risks reigniting inflation, especially if trade disruptions push up prices. On the other hand, holding back could stifle growth if the labor market deteriorates. Fed is walking a tightrope, and its decisions will likely amplify market swings in the coming months. For investors, this means staying attuned to economic data like employment figures and inflation readings, which will heavily influence the Fed’s path.

AI hype changes things

Meanwhile, the optimism around AI-driven growth is injecting a dose of excitement into the markets, and I can see why. Advances in artificial intelligence are no longer just theoretical. They’re starting to reshape industries. Companies are pouring resources into AI, betting that it will streamline operations, boost productivity, and open new revenue channels.

This enthusiasm is most evident in the tech sector, which has powered a recent rebound in US stock markets. The S&P 500 climbed 1.5 per cent, the NASDAQ jumped 2.0 per cent, and the Dow Jones rose 1.3 per cent, reflecting a clear risk-on attitude. I find this rally encouraging because it signals confidence in innovation as a growth driver. I also think it’s worth tempering expectations.

AI’s economic impact is still unfolding, and while the long-term potential is immense, short-term gains might be overstated. If other risks like trade disputes or policy missteps intensify, the AI narrative could lose its luster, leaving tech-heavy indices vulnerable.

The bond market offers another lens into investor sentiment, and here I see a mix of caution and opportunism. US Treasuries consolidated their gains on Monday after a strong showing the previous Friday, when renewed expectations of Fed rate cuts drove demand. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 2.4 basis points to 4.192 per cent, inching close to its support level at 4.185 per cent.

Lower yields typically suggest investors are seeking safety, which seems at odds with the equity market’s rally. To me, this divergence hints at underlying unease; some investors are hedging their bets even as others pile into stocks. The US Dollar Index fell 0.4 per cent in response to these lower yields, while gold edged up 0.3 per cent to US$3,373 per ounce. Gold’s modest gain reinforces my view that safe-haven assets still hold appeal, despite the risk-on vibe dominating headlines. It’s a subtle but telling sign that not everyone is fully convinced by the current optimism.

The case with commodities

Commodities, too, are part of this intricate puzzle. Brent crude oil slipped 1.3 per cent to US$68 per barrel after OPEC+ agreed to increase production by over 500,000 barrels per day starting in September.

This move surprised me a bit, given the group’s usual caution, but it could ease inflationary pressures by keeping oil prices in check. For consumers and businesses, cheaper oil is a welcome relief, potentially supporting spending and investment. However, it also raises questions about global demand. If OPEC+ feels confident boosting output, does that mean they see economic growth slowing? I lean toward the idea that this is a strategic play to maintain market share, but it’s a development worth watching. Lower oil prices might give central banks like the Fed more room to cut rates without stoking inflation, indirectly supporting the risk sentiment driving markets.

Now, let’s shift gears to Bitcoin, where an intriguing story is unfolding. The cryptocurrency’s price volatility has plummeted to its lowest level in over a year, a stark contrast to its historically wild swings. According to Blockforce Capital, Bitcoin’s annualised 60-day volatility fell to 28.53 per cent on July 30, the lowest since August 28, 2023. Its 30-day volatility hit 25.26 per cent on July 23, the calmest since October 15, 2023. This happened as Bitcoin’s price oscillated between US$105,000 and US$122,750 in July, per Coinbase data from TradingView.

I find this stability fascinating, especially given the broader market turbulence. Part of it stems from regulatory progress, including the passage of three US House bills on crypto and the enactment of regulations in July, with the GENIUS Act signed into law by President Trump. These steps likely reassured investors, reducing uncertainty.

But there’s more to this story. Institutional players are flexing their muscles, and I see this as a game-changer. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, acquired US$2.46 billion worth of Bitcoin between July 28 and August 3, increasing its holdings to 628,791 tokens, valued at over US$71 billion. That’s a massive bet, averaging $117,526 per token, and it shows how Michael Saylor has turned his company into a Bitcoin juggernaut.

Similarly, Japan’s Metaplanet grabbed 463 BTC for US$53 million, pushing its stash to 17,595 BTC, worth about $2.02 billion. These firms are treating Bitcoin like a treasury asset, buying even as retail enthusiasm wanes. I think this institutional muscle could steady Bitcoin through choppy waters, though it also ties the crypto’s fate closer to corporate strategies.

My view? Enjoy the ride, but keep your eyes wide open. The next few months could be a wild one.

 

Source: https://e27.co/whats-shaping-the-markets-right-now-ai-hype-bitcoins-calm-and-the-feds-next-move-20250805/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

What’s next for markets: Navigating trade threats, earnings, crypto and central bank signals

What’s next for markets: Navigating trade threats, earnings, crypto and central bank signals

Reports indicate that US President Donald Trump has intensified his demands on the EU, pushing for tariffs of at least 15 per cent to 20 per cent on imports from the bloc after weeks of negotiations aimed at securing a new trade deal. This bold move has subdued global risk sentiment, as investors grapple with the prospect of a potential trade war that could disrupt supply chains, elevate costs, and hinder economic growth worldwide.

I view this as a pivotal moment that could redefine international trade dynamics and impact a broad range of markets, from equities to cryptocurrencies.

The catalyst: Trump’s tariff demands and their broader implications

Trump’s escalation of tariff demands marks a significant shift in US-EU trade relations. After weeks of talks, the insistence on a 15 per cent – 20 per cent tariff suggests a hardening stance, potentially unravelling years of efforts to maintain relatively open trade between these economic powerhouses. This move reflects a broader strategy of economic nationalism, prioritising domestic industries over global cooperation.

However, it’s a high-stakes gamble. The EU, a major trading partner for the US, may retaliate with its tariffs, sparking a tit-for-tat escalation that history shows rarely benefits anyone in the long run. The mere threat of such a trade war has already injected uncertainty into markets, as businesses and investors brace for higher costs and reduced profitability.

The global risk sentiment, already fragile due to geopolitical tensions and uneven post-pandemic recovery, has taken a noticeable hit. Investors are shifting toward a risk-off stance, prioritizing safety over chasing high returns. It isn’t surprising that trade wars tend to dampen economic growth by disrupting the flow of goods and increasing inflationary pressures.

My view is that while Trump’s demands may aim to protect American jobs, they risk alienating allies and destabilizing an interconnected global economy at a time when resilience is sorely needed. Let’s examine how this sentiment is unfolding across various markets.

Equity markets: A mixed bag of caution and resilience

The major US equity indexes closed last Friday with a mixed performance, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff threats. The S&P 500 dipped slightly by 0.01 per cent, a negligible decline that hints at cautious optimism in some corners.

The Nasdaq, buoyed by tech-heavy stocks, edged up by 0.05 per cent, suggesting that investors still see resilience in technology sectors less immediately tied to trade flows. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.32 per cent, reflecting greater concern among traditional industries, like manufacturing, that could bear the brunt of tariff-related disruptions.

Looking beyond the US, Asian equity markets ended mostly higher last Friday but opened mixed in today’s early trading session. This inconsistency mirrors the global nature of the trade tensions, with some regions hopeful for a resolution and others wary of the fallout.

Interestingly, US equity index futures are pointing to a higher open today, which could indicate a short-term rebound or simply a pause in the pessimism. From my perspective, this mixed response suggests that while markets aren’t in full panic mode, there’s an undercurrent of unease.

Investors appear to be hedging their bets, waiting for clearer signals, perhaps from upcoming earnings or policy announcements, before committing fully to a bullish or bearish outlook.

Bond markets: A flight to safety

The bond market offers a clearer picture of investor sentiment. Yields on US Treasuries ended lower last Friday, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping four basis points to 4.42 per cent and the two-year yield falling by the same margin to 3.87 per cent. Since yields move inversely to bond prices, this decline signals a surge in demand for these safe-haven assets.

Two factors appear to be driving this shift: dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and lower-than-expected consumer inflation expectations from the University of Michigan sentiment survey.

Waller’s comments likely hinted at a more accommodative monetary policy, a soothing prospect amid trade uncertainties. The Michigan survey, showing tempered inflation outlooks, further eases pressure on the Fed to hike rates aggressively, making Treasuries even more attractive.

In my opinion, this flight to safety underscores a market bracing for turbulence. Investors are prioritising capital preservation over riskier bets, a classic response to geopolitical and economic headwinds. It’s a prudent move, but it also highlights the fragility of confidence right now.

Currency and commodities: Safe havens shine

The foreign exchange and commodities markets are equally telling. The US Dollar Index slipped by 0.27 per cent, a modest retreat that aligns with the dovish Fed signals and a broader risk-off mood. A weaker dollar often accompanies uncertainty, as investors diversify into other currencies or assets. Gold, the quintessential safe-haven, rose by 0.4 per cent to US$3,353 per ounce, a clear sign of heightened anxiety.

I see this uptick as a natural reaction, gold thrives when trust in fiat currencies or economic stability wavers, and Trump’s tariff demands certainly fit that bill.

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil edged down by 0.3 per cent, a subtle but significant move. Oil prices are sensitive to demand expectations, and this dip suggests markets are factoring in a potential economic slowdown if trade barriers escalate. These shifts, while small, are early warning signs. If trade tensions persist, we could see more pronounced movements in commodities, particularly if global growth forecasts sour.

Cryptocurrencies: A divergent path

Turning to cryptocurrencies, the picture is more nuanced. Bitcoin, after reaching a record high of US$123,218 last week, has entered a consolidation phase between US$116,000 and US$120,000. As of Monday, it’s trading around US$117,800.

Technical indicators paint a cautious outlook: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has fallen from an overbought level of 70 to 64, signalling a fading of bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) nears a bearish crossover. If Bitcoin slips below US$116,000, it might retest its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at US$110,297. But a close above US$120,000 could spark a rally back toward its peak.

Ethereum, by contrast, is showing strength. It surged 26.40 per cent last week, closing above a key resistance at US$3,730 on Sunday, and hovers around US$3,739 as of Monday. With an RSI of 86, well into overbought territory and a bullish MACD crossover from early July still holding, Ethereum’s momentum is robust. If it holds above US$3,730, the US$4,000 mark is within reach. Ripple’s XRP, finding support at US$3.40, also hints at a potential rally continuation.

From my perspective, cryptocurrencies are carving out a distinct narrative. Unlike traditional markets, they’re less directly tied to trade policies, offering a hedge against uncertainty. Ethereum’s surge, in particular, suggests that investor appetite for digital assets remains strong, perhaps driven by innovation and decentralisation rather than macroeconomic fears. That said, Bitcoin’s sideways trading reflects indecision; traders are waiting for a catalyst, and Trump’s tariffs could indirectly sway sentiment if they tank broader markets.

A noteworthy development in this context is Block, co-founded by Jack Dorsey, joining the S&P 500 index this week. Formerly Square, Block is deeply entrenched in the crypto space through its Bitkey self-custody Bitcoin wallet and Proto Bitcoin mining products.

Since last summer, it has been reinvesting 10 per cent of its Bitcoin profits in BTC on a monthly basis and has open-sourced its treasury blueprint. This move not only elevates Block’s profile but also bridges the traditional finance and cryptocurrency sectors. It’s a sign of the growing legitimacy of digital assets. Block’s inclusion could bolster confidence in Bitcoin, especially if trade tensions prompt investors to seek alternative stores of value.

Looking ahead

The week ahead will be critical. The US earnings season expands to include the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech giants: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla. Their performance could either offset trade-related gloom or amplify it if results disappoint.

The European Central Bank meets Thursday, with rates expected to hold steady, but its commentary will be dissected for clues on how it views the tariff threat. Economic data, from inflation to manufacturing, will also shape the narrative.

This is a time for vigilance. The interplay of earnings, central bank moves, and economic data will either stabilise markets or deepen the uncertainty. I’d lean toward a balanced approach of holding safe havens like gold and Treasuries while keeping an eye on crypto’s upside potential.

Non-financial advice as always.

 

Source: https://e27.co/whats-next-for-markets-navigating-trade-threats-earnings-crypto-and-central-bank-signals-20250721/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j