Tag Archives: october

Light Liquidations and Flat Funding: Is Bitcoin About to Explode?

Light Liquidations and Flat Funding: Is Bitcoin About to Explode?

Bitcoin traded in a narrow band near $85,400 to $85,550 during early October 7, 2026. Live aggregator readings clustered around $85,435 to $85,542. The 24-hour change settled at roughly -0.3% to -0.5% on most feeds, though 1 snapshot briefly showed a small positive. There were no sustained breakouts in either direction. Market capitalization hovered near $1.71 to $1.72 trillion.

The all-time high remains between $126,000 and $126,200, set around October 6, 2025. The coin still trades approximately 32% below that peak. Year-over-year performance sits at roughly -30% to -31%, a sobering figure for anyone who bought near the top. The 7-day change is modestly positive at around 3% on some trackers, and the 30-day picture shows roughly 7% gains. While the long-term trend remains underwater, recent weeks have delivered a slow, grinding recovery.

The technical setup has become increasingly defined. Sellers rejected the $87,000 level for the 3rd time since September 23, forming a triangle with rising support and horizontal resistance. That latest rejection left BTC near $85,600 during Asian hours on October 6 before drifting slightly lower into the current session. Triangles are neutral patterns, but the repeated failures at $87,000 suggest a ceiling that sellers continue to defend. Until buyers push through that level with conviction, the path of least resistance remains sideways to lower.

Macro forces are the primary drag. Elevated bond yields have emerged as the dominant headwind. The US 10-year Treasury yield recently sat near 5.25% to 5.32%, levels last seen in the early 2000s. Yields eased by a few basis points on October 6, but they remain high enough to put pressure on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. A stronger $ and sliding bond prices added to the crypto headwind even as equities held up. This divergence has frustrated crypto bulls for months. When investors can earn over 5% risk-free, the opportunity cost of holding a volatile, non-yielding asset rises considerably.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows for early October are mixed. Net flows reached positive $202.6 million month-to-date through October 5, but October 5 itself showed about -$89.9 million. Earlier in September, weekly ETF inflows were strong, at roughly $2.4 billion. The latest session outflow looks like a pause rather than a full reversal. Institutional interest has not disappeared. It has simply cooled in line with price momentum. The CFTC opened a comment window on a framework for leveraged retail crypto products, a mild positive development that the yield story outweighed. Regulatory progress is welcome, but it rarely moves markets in the short term when macro conditions dominate.

Derivatives data paints a picture of calm positioning. Aggregated crypto liquidations over 24 hours are relatively light, roughly $40 to $57 million across major trackers. 1 CoinGlass view showed a higher total that appears to mix broader figures, so the lower range is more reliable. BTC-specific liquidations are between $11 and $26 million over the last 24 hours, well below stress levels. Long liquidations slightly exceed short liquidations on several feeds. Examples include roughly $14.3 million in longs versus $11.9 million in shorts, and another reading of about $6.1 million in longs versus $5.5 million in shorts. The long-to-short liquidation split is roughly 54% to 60% longs against 40% to 46% shorts. This is a mild long flush, not a cascade. Account long-to-short ratios are near balanced to slightly long. Binance shows about 52.6% long, Bybit about 56% long, and 1 CoinGlass 24-hour read shows 48% long and 52% short. Open interest is elevated but stable, ranging from $43 to $56 billion for BTC futures across major aggregates, with small daily changes. Funding rates are near flat to slightly negative on some venues, with 1 reading around -0.012% per 8 hours. That combination of stable open interest and flat funding suggests limited leverage imbalance.

Volume tells a similar story of moderate engagement. Reported 24-hour spot volume is roughly $17 to $27 billion depending on the aggregator. CoinMarketCap shows about $24.9 billion, while other feeds report $17 to $20 billion. BTC perpetual and futures volume is higher, commonly cited in the $40 to $50 billion range for 24 hours, with CoinGlass futures volume around $49 billion. Perpetuals continue to dominate price discovery versus pure spot. The volume-to-market-cap ratio remains low at roughly 1%. Trading activity is not overheating. There is no speculative frenzy in either direction.

Broader market backdrop matters. US cash equities closed October 6 at record levels. The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7,818.93. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.45% to 27,599.79. The Dow added 0.49% to 51,521.28. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P also set or matched all-time highs, while the Russell 2000 lagged, down 0.6%. Equities found support from AI and tech strength, a Constellation-Google power deal, easing yields, and lower oil on the day. The VIX fell to around 15. Gold was firmer, trading around $4,160 to $4,190. Bitcoin decoupled lower versus both stocks and gold. This is the classic high-yield, risk-on equity-soft crypto divergence. Investors are embracing select risk assets, particularly those tied to the AI theme, while treating crypto with caution.

My point of view is this. The 24-hour move in Bitcoin is a low-conviction drift lower after repeated $87,000 rejections. Light liquidations, balanced positioning, solid but not explosive spot and perpetual volume, and clear underperformance versus record US equity indexes all point to a market that lacks a catalyst. The triangle formation will eventually resolve, but until bond yields retreat meaningfully or ETF inflows accelerate, Bitcoin will struggle to break free. Positioning is not stretched. There is no leverage-driven bubble waiting to burst. Without a macro shift, the path of least resistance remains a slow grind. Data windows differ by minutes to hours, so treat all prices as approximate.

Bitcoin is waiting, and the market is in no hurry to push it higher.

 

Source: https://e27.co/light-liquidations-and-flat-funding-is-bitcoin-about-to-explode-20261007/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin jumped 1.81% to $86,350.24. Is this a real breakout or a short squeeze?

Bitcoin jumped 1.81% to $86,350.24. Is this a real breakout or a short squeeze?

5 key points:

  1. Bitcoin rose 1.81% to $86,350.24 in 24 hours, beating a broader market gain of 1.45%. 

  2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs started October with $134.4M net inflows over 2 sessions, reversing late September outflows. 

  3. Short liquidations totalled $22.16M in 24 hours, a 1304% increase. 

  4. Key resistance sits at $87,500. A daily close above it could trigger more short covering and target $90,000 or more. 

  5. SEC approved Cboe BZX rule change on 2 October 2026 for 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ether ETPs. 

 

 

Bitcoin rose 1.81% to $86,350.24 in 24 hours, slightly outperforming the broader market, which gained 1.45%. The move looks modest on the surface. Underneath, two forces drove the gain. Renewed spot ETF demand and a softer macro backdrop gave the largest cryptocurrency a firmer floor. A short squeeze then amplified the rise. The coin now trades with a 96% correlation to the Nasdaq-100 ETF, QQQ, over 30 days. That link shows Bitcoin and tech growth assets have moved together. For anyone reading the next move, that relationship matters because it means Bitcoin is not trading in isolation. It is trading as part of a broader growth complex, which responds to interest rate expectations and institutional flows.

United States spot Bitcoin ETFs started October with $134.4 million in net inflows over two sessions. That flow reversed outflows from late September. Real capital entering through regulated products provides a fundamental floor. The timing helped. A weak jobs report showed only 29,000 jobs added. Market-implied odds of an October Fed rate hike fell to 14% from 70% earlier in the week. Lower hike odds reduce pressure on risk assets. The combination of ETF demand and a less hawkish Fed narrative pushed the coin higher. The macro relief did not arrive alone. It landed alongside genuine buying through exchange-traded funds. The move had both a narrative and a capital flow behind it. That setup is stronger than a rally built only on sentiment because it ties price to real demand rather than to speculation alone.

A mechanical force added fuel. Short liquidations totaled $22.16 million over 24 hours, a 1304% increase. That jump shows a short squeeze at work. When traders bet against Bitcoin, and price rises through their stop levels, exchanges force them to buy back. That buying pushes price higher, which triggers more liquidations. This feedback loop accelerated the rally. Technically, Bitcoin trades above its 7-day SMA at $84,467. Its 7-day RSI is at 74.93, indicating overbought conditions. The rally may be extended. A high RSI warns of near-term consolidation or pullback as overbought conditions work off. Watch whether price sustains above the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level at $84,432. A clean hold above that line would keep momentum intact. A slip below it would give buyers a reason to pause and reassess.

The immediate path depends on Bitcoin’s ability to challenge resistance at $87,500. Analysts identify that level as critical for triggering a larger short squeeze. A daily close above $87,500 would confirm a bullish continuation and set a target of $90,000 or higher. A failure to hold support at $82,000 to $82,500 risks a pullback toward $80,000. The Fed meeting on October 28 is the next major macro event that could shift the rate narrative. The September CPI report, released on October 14, also matters. Bias is cautiously bullish above support. The market watches for a clear breakout or rejection at $87,500. The space between those levels may hold until a catalyst arrives. That range would let overbought technicals cool without forcing a deeper correction.

A separate development adds a new layer. On 2 October 2026, the SEC approved a rule change that allows Cboe BZX to list 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ether ETPs. The approval covers 6 futures-based ETPs from Volatility Shares’ VS Trust. They target 3x the daily performance of Bitcoin, Ether, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas. The Bitcoin and Ether products follow CME futures rather than holding the assets directly. Trading cannot start until the separate registrations go into effect. No effective date exists yet. This approval expands regulated access to leverage around Bitcoin. It could increase short-term volatility and liquidation risk without changing spot supply or ETF fundamentals. The next key steps are the SEC effectiveness of S-1 registrations, actual listing dates, and the volume and leverage these funds attract once trading begins. If traders embrace these products, daily swings around macro events and ETF-flow spikes could increase. If they stay on the sidelines, the approval remains a structural footnote.

My own view is that this rally has a firmer base than a sentiment bounce. ETF inflows show real capital moving through regulated channels. The macro shift is measurable in expectations for rates. The short squeeze is temporary, but it cleared bearish positioning. Overbought technicals and the lack of a decisive break above $87,500 argue for caution. The market priced in good news quickly. If CPI on October 14 surprises to the upside or the Fed on October 28 signals that rate hikes remain on the table, the same macro tailwind could reverse. The bias leans bullish above $82,000. The next leg higher needs either a clean breakout with volume or a consolidation that lets momentum reset. The SEC’s approval of 3x ETPs does not change the structural demand for spot Bitcoin. Its real impact will depend on how aggressively traders use these products once they launch. Registration effectiveness, early volume patterns, and any liquidation-driven volatility are the key signals to watch.

The market outlook stays bullish, but extended. Bitcoin’s gain rests on concrete ETF inflows and a favorable shift in rate expectations. Overbought technicals suggest the pace may slow. The key question is whether the coin can muster enough volume to break the $87,500 barrier, or whether it consolidates between $82,500 and $87,500 ahead of the Fed. A break above $87,500 opens $90,000 or more. A break below $82,000 to $82,500 shifts attention to $80,000. For now, the evidence supports a cautiously bullish stance. The October 14 CPI report and the October 28 Fed meeting are the 2 events most likely to determine the next direction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-jumped-1-81-to-us86350-24-is-this-a-real-breakout-or-a-short-squeeze-20261005/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
j j j

October’s perfect storm: Earnings, regulation, and the crypto sell-off

October’s perfect storm: Earnings, regulation, and the crypto sell-off

The recent pullback in crypto markets reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces, derivatives dynamics, and evolving regulatory frameworks. At its core, the 1.24 per cent decline over the past 24 hours and the broader 4.99 per cent slide over the past week cannot be attributed to a single factor.

Instead, it emerges from a convergence of risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, a reset in leveraged positioning, and heightened scrutiny over the structural integrity of stablecoins under new legislative proposals. These elements collectively reinforce crypto’s current role as a correlated risk asset rather than a safe haven or uncorrelated store of value.

Global risk sentiment remains subdued as investors brace for a critical wave of corporate earnings reports scheduled between October 23 and 27. The performance of major US technology firms will likely dictate near-term direction not only for equities but also for digital assets, given the persistent correlation between crypto and tech-heavy indices.

On Tuesday, US equities closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.47 per cent while the Nasdaq slipped 0.16 per cent. This divergence underscores underlying fragility in market breadth, particularly as tariff-related concerns weigh on industrial and export-oriented sectors. Notably, the 24-hour correlation between Bitcoin and the Dow reached +0.89, while its link to the Nasdaq stood at +0.33, confirming that broader equity weakness, especially in cyclical segments, continues to drag on crypto sentiment.

Compounding this dynamic is the sharp correction in gold, which plunged 5.3 per cent to US$4,125.22 per ounce on October 21, marking its steepest single-day decline in over a decade. This collapse in a traditional safe-haven asset further illustrates the market’s risk-off posture and suggests that capital is not rotating into defensive instruments but rather retreating into liquidity or the US dollar, which rose 0.35 per cent to 98.934 on the Dollar Index.

Meanwhile, Brent crude edged higher to US$61.32 per barrel, supported by declining US crude inventories, highlighting a nuanced energy-market backdrop that has not yet translated into broader commodity strength.

In Japan, political developments added another layer of geopolitical nuance. Sanae Takaichi secured 237 votes in the Diet on October 21 to become Japan’s first female prime minister, following her victory in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership race on October 4.

Her stated intention to meet with US President Donald Trump to elevate Japan-US relations to new heights introduces potential for renewed trade dialogue, though Trump’s own remarks expressing optimism about a possible deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping while simultaneously casting doubt on whether the meeting will occur, inject further uncertainty into global trade expectations. This ambiguity feeds directly into market caution, as unresolved trade tensions remain a key overhang for risk assets.

Turning to crypto-specific drivers, the derivatives market has undergone a significant deleveraging event. Open interest in perpetual futures surged 9.82 per cent to US$952 billion, but this buildup was heavily skewed toward long positions during Bitcoin’s rally to US$126,198 on October 6. That peak represented a historic milestone, driven by institutional inflows and macro tailwinds, but it also sowed the seeds of vulnerability.

As prices reversed, US$321 million in Bitcoin futures were liquidated, with 77 per cent of those positions held by longs. This cascade amplified selling pressure and pushed the market capitalisation below the critical US$3.74 trillion Fibonacci support level. The Relative Strength Index now sits at 28.9, signalling oversold conditions, yet technical support at US$102,000 remains the key battleground. A breach below this level could trigger further algorithmic and discretionary selling.

Regulatory developments have also weighed on sentiment, particularly surrounding the proposed GENIUS Act. While the legislation aims to create a federal framework for payment stablecoins, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr raised alarms about potential systemic risks if the law permits Bitcoin to be used as collateral in repo agreements for stablecoin reserves. A close reading of the bill reveals that the GENIUS Act actually prohibits rehypothecation of stablecoin reserves and mandates that payment stablecoins carry direct redemption rights against their underlying assets.

Furthermore, the Act explicitly forbids stablecoins from bearing interest, being staked, or providing dividends. These provisions suggest that Bitcoin-backed stablecoins, as described in the prompt, are not permitted under the current draft. Barr’s warning may therefore reflect a hypothetical or misinterpreted scenario, but the mere perception of regulatory risk has been enough to dampen institutional enthusiasm and reinforce the narrative that crypto’s path to mainstream adoption remains fraught with policy uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, the question of altcoin performance hinges on Bitcoin’s ability to stabilise. Historically, altcoins tend to underperform during broad risk-off episodes, and the current data support this pattern. Altcoin funding rates lag Bitcoin’s by -0.0004 per cent, indicating bearish positioning and reduced speculative appetite outside the flagship asset.

If Bitcoin holds $102,000 and macro conditions improve, particularly if Q3 earnings deliver resilient guidance, altcoins could experience a relief rally. However, if equity markets continue to falter and regulatory headlines intensify, sector-wide risk aversion will likely prevail, keeping altcoins tethered to Bitcoin’s fate.

In a nutshell, the current dip is not an isolated crypto event but a symptom of wider financial market recalibration. The convergence of macro headwinds, leveraged unwinds, and regulatory noise has created a perfect storm of selling pressure. The extreme fear reflected in sentiment indicators and the technical oversold condition suggest that the market may be nearing a short-term inflection point.

Whether this leads to a sustainable rebound or merely a dead-cat bounce depends on the clarity provided by the upcoming earnings season and the actual implementation, not just the rhetoric, of stablecoin regulation. Until then, traders will remain on edge, watching Bitcoin’s $102,000 support as the canary in the coal mine for the entire digital asset ecosystem.

 

Source: https://e27.co/octobers-perfect-storm-earnings-regulation-and-the-crypto-sell-off-20251022/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
j j j