July 29th, 2025

Global sentiment lifts off: The US-EU agreement’s ripple through stocks, commodities, and digital currencies

The announcement of a US-EU trade agreement on Sunday has acted as a catalyst, easing tensions that had previously weighed on investor confidence. This development has had a ripple effect across various markets, influencing equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

As we approach a week marked by high-stakes economic events and corporate earnings, understanding these dynamics becomes increasingly crucial. In my view, the renewed optimism is a welcome change, though the mixed signals in some markets suggest that caution remains warranted.

Let me tell you more.

A boost from the US-EU trade agreement

The US-EU trade agreement has emerged as a pivotal factor in lifting global risk sentiment. For months, trade uncertainty had cast a shadow over markets, with investors wary of escalating tariffs and disruptions to global supply chains.

The deal announced on Sunday has alleviated some of these concerns, fostering a more risk-on environment. Investors are now more inclined to allocate capital to growth-oriented assets like stocks, rather than seeking refuge in traditional safe havens like bonds or gold.

This shift reflects a broader belief that economic stability might be within reach, at least in the short term. However, with major events like the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and US payroll data looming, the sustainability of this optimism remains an open question.

US markets: Choppy trading and rising yields

In the United States, stock markets closed mixed after a volatile session, capturing the complexity of the current environment. The S&P 500 inched up by 0.02 per cent, signalling modest gains, while the NASDAQ climbed 0.33 per cent, driven by strength in technology stocks.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped by 0.14 per cent, hinting at lingering caution among traders. This uneven performance suggests that while the trade agreement has bolstered confidence, investors are still grappling with uncertainties tied to upcoming economic releases and corporate earnings.

US Treasury yields, which often serve as a barometer of market sentiment, edged higher across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2.2 basis points to 4.410 per cent, and the two-year yield ticked up by 0.2 basis points to 3.926 per cent.

These increases suggest that investors are shifting away from the safety of government bonds, aligning with the broader risk-on sentiment. Higher yields also reflect expectations of stronger economic growth, though they could pressure equity valuations if the trend accelerates.

The US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against major currencies, advanced by 1.01 per cent. A stronger dollar typically accompanies periods of economic optimism, as it did here, fuelled by the trade deal and improving risk appetite. This dollar rally could pose challenges for US exporters, but it also underscores the market’s faith in the resilience of the US economy.

Commodities: Diverging paths for gold and brent crude

Commodities have displayed divergent trends amid the shifting sentiment. Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, extended its retreat, falling by 0.68 per cent to US$3,315 per ounce.

This decline is understandable in the context of a rising risk appetite, as investors reduce their holdings of gold in favor of assets with higher potential returns. I see this as a natural response to the trade agreement, though gold could regain favor if new uncertainties emerge.

In contrast, Brent crude oil surged by 1.9 per cent to US$70 per barrel, propelled by President Trump’s proposal to impose secondary tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil ahead of a 50-day deadline. This move has raised concerns about a tighter oil supply, which is expected to boost prices.

The rally also reflects the improving global economic outlook, which tends to lift energy demand. The energy market remains vulnerable to geopolitical shifts, and any escalation in trade disputes could alter this trajectory.

Asian markets and US futures: A mixed outlook

Asian stock markets mirrored the uneven performance seen in the US, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 pulling back by 1.1 per cent. This decline likely stemmed from profit-taking after recent gains, though it highlights that not all regions are fully embracing the risk-on wave. Despite this, US equity index futures suggest that US stocks will open higher, pointing to sustained positive momentum.

Investors are now fixated on a packed week ahead, featuring the FOMC meeting, US ISM manufacturing data, non-farm payrolls, second-quarter GDP figures, and earnings from four of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants. These events will likely determine whether the current optimism persists or wanes.

Cryptocurrencies: Ethereum’s surge and Bitcoin’s mining milestone

The cryptocurrency market has also captured attention, with Ethereum briefly topping US$3,900, its highest level since December, before pulling back. This surge underscores growing investor enthusiasm for Ethereum, driven by its expanding role in decentralised finance and smart contract applications.

Bernstein analysts have noted that Ethereum treasuries, companies holding Ethereum as a reserve asset, are adopting a distinct approach compared to their Bitcoin-focused counterparts. These treasuries generate staking rewards, providing a yield on their holdings, which marks a significant evolution in how institutions utilise cryptocurrencies.

The analysts caution that this model introduces liquidity and security risks. Staking contracts, while generally liquid, can require days-long queues to unstake, forcing Ethereum treasuries to balance availability with yield optimisation. More advanced strategies, such as restaking or DeFi-based yield generation, further complicate matters by exposing firms to vulnerabilities in smart contracts.

This trade-off between yield and risk highlights the maturing nature of the crypto market, where innovation often comes with growing pains. Companies will need to navigate these challenges carefully to sustain Ethereum’s momentum.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has seen its mining power approach a new record, with the 7-day average hashrate reaching 942 exahashes per second. This figure sits just below the all-time high of 943.6 exahashes per second set in mid-June, according to data from Blockchain.com.

The hashrate, which tracks the total computing power dedicated to mining Bitcoin, offers insight into the network’s security and the confidence of miners. The recent surge suggests that miners remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, despite its price cooling off in recent weeks.

This increase in mining power has persisted despite a new all-time high in Bitcoin’s difficulty, which adjusts to make mining more challenging as more power is added. Miners’ willingness to expand operations under these conditions reflects their belief in future price gains, likely driven by Bitcoin’s historical resilience and growing institutional adoption.

I find this development encouraging, as it signals a robust foundation for Bitcoin, though it also raises questions about energy consumption and profitability if prices stagnate.

My perspective: Optimism tempered by caution

From my standpoint, the advance in global risk sentiment is a positive development, particularly after months of trade-related uncertainty. The US-EU agreement has provided a much-needed lift, and its effects are evident across equities, currencies, and commodities.

The strength in the US dollar and Brent crude, coupled with Ethereum’s price surge and Bitcoin’s mining milestone, paints a picture of a market eager to move forward. Yet, the mixed performance of US and Asian stock markets, along with gold’s decline, reminds us that not all investors are thoroughly convinced.

The week ahead will be crucial in determining whether this momentum is sustained. The FOMC meeting could signal shifts in monetary policy, while economic data, such as payrolls and GDP, will shed light on the health of the US economy. Earnings from tech giants will also play a role, given their outsized influence on market indices.

In my opinion, the current risk-on environment offers opportunities, but investors should remain vigilant. The cryptocurrency space, with its blend of innovation and risk, exemplifies this duality. Ethereum treasuries and Bitcoin miners are pushing boundaries, yet they face hurdles that could temper their progress.

Source: https://e27.co/global-sentiment-lifts-off-the-us-eu-agreements-ripple-through-stocks-commodities-and-digital-currencies-20250729/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

May 3rd, 2025

Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off

Bitcoin’s recovery to its all-time high may be threatened by rising recession fears, which could ease if the United States and China begin tariff negotiations this month, research analysts told Cointelegraph.

Appetite for global risk assets such as Bitcoin may take another hit, with analysts from Apollo Global Management predicting a recession by the summer.

“Apollo predicting Summer Recession: Sharpest decline in earnings outlook since 2020,” cross-asset analyst Samantha LaDuc wrote in an April 26 X post.

The progress on the tariff negotiations may be the most significant factor impacting a potential recession and Bitcoin’s price trajectory, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

“May is seen as pivotal as Chinese shipments reach the US’s shores, and exemptions on some tariff categories such as auto parts and sub-USD-800 shipments from China/ Hong Kong expire,” Barthere told Cointelegraph, adding that a lack of negotiations in May could lead to an economic recession and “double-digit losses” for Bitcoin.

However, this is the least likely scenario, since neither China nor the US “ has an economic interest in the interruption of bilateral trade,” Barthere said, adding:

“Given this, the main tariff scenario is for the US reaching deals or at least ‘agreements in principle’ with its main trade partners, probably settling around the 10% reciprocal tariff ‘floor’.”

If that scenario plays out and trade tensions ease in May, Bitcoin is likely to revisit its all-time high, Barthere said.

The US has “proactively reached out to China through multiple channels,” for signaling its openness for tariff negotiations, Reuters reported on May 1, citing unnamed sources who spoke to state-affiliated Chinese media platform Yuyuan Tantian.

Bitcoin may rally despite recession

While most analysts hope to see trade negotiations in May alleviate economic concerns, Bitcoin may see more upside even in the face of a potential recession.

“Initially, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may experience volatility, dropping alongside risk assets like stocks due to investor sell-offs,” Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser, told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Historical data, such as Bitcoin’s recovery post-2020 recession, suggests it could rebound, especially if seen as a hedge against inflation.”

“In stagflation (high inflation and slow growth), Bitcoin, often compared to gold, may perform well, attracting investors seeking value preservation. Yet, its increased correlation with the stock market, particularly tech stocks, introduces uncertainty,” said Lian, adding that crypto investors should continue monitoring economic policy shifts to gauge market direction.

However, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with tech stocks adds uncertainty to that outlook. Following the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, Bitcoin surged more than 1,050%, climbing from $6,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That rally came after the Federal Reserve launched its $4 trillion asset purchase program in March 2020.

Other industry watchers remain concerned by the crypto market’s response to economic stagnation.

“If the analysts are correct about the recession (which is certainly not guaranteed), crypto markets will likely decline alongside broader risk-on assets and equities,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of blockchain oracle firm RedStone.

Kazmierczak said April’s “Liberation Day tariffs and trucking slowdown could create economic contagion that historically hits speculative assets hardest.”

“While crypto’s growing institutional adoption introduces some uncertainty, it’s not enough to overcome the fundamental risk-on classification that still dominates market behavior,” he added.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-uncertainty-recession-us-china-trade-talks

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

March 11th, 2025

Wall Street’s reckoning: How Trump’s words sparked a global sell-off

The broad sell-off we’re witnessing today, March 11, 2025, is no small blip—it’s a visceral reaction to mounting recessionary fears that have investors on edge. The numbers tell a stark story: the S&P 500 has shed 2.7 per cent in a single session, while the Nasdaq has plummeted 4 per cent, marking its steepest drop since September 2022.

These declines have dragged the S&P 500 8.7 per cent below its all-time high set on February 19, with the Nasdaq a staggering 14 per cent off its recent peak. What’s fuelling this fire? A weekend interview with US President Donald Trump, where he candidly refused to rule out a recession and framed the current moment as a “period of transition.” Those words have hit the markets like a sledgehammer, amplifying uncertainty at a time when clarity is desperately needed.

Let’s unpack this. Trump’s comments come against a backdrop of escalating tariff war tensions and a flurry of government firings, both of which are stoking fears that the US—the world’s economic powerhouse—could be teetering on the brink of a downturn. Investors, ever sensitive to shifts in sentiment, have responded by fleeing risk assets en masse.

The bond market reflects this flight to safety: the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped 8.8 basis points to 4.213 per cent, while the 2-year yield fell even more sharply, declining 11.6 basis points to 3.883 per cent. Falling yields signal that investors are piling into Treasuries, betting on a slowing economy where safer assets reign supreme.

Meanwhile, the VIX index—the so-called “fear gauge”—surged 19.2 per cent to 27.86, its highest level since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in December. That spike underscores the palpable anxiety coursing through Wall Street.

The ripple effects aren’t confined to the US Across the Atlantic, Europe’s STOXX 600 slipped 1.3 per cent, and Germany’s DAX fell 1.7 per cent, mirroring the dour mood. In Asia, the picture is equally grim: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index tumbled 1.8 per cent, while China’s Shanghai Composite edged down a more modest 0.2 per cent.

Asian markets, which often take their cues from overnight US performance, opened lower today, tracking Wall Street’s rout. This synchronised sell-off speaks to a broader retreat in global risk sentiment, a collective exhale as investors brace for what might come next.

Commodities and currencies are feeling the heat too. Brent crude oil slid 1.5 per cent to US$69.28 per barrel, weighed down by a planned supply increase from OPEC+ in April and softening US economic activity. Gold, typically a haven in times of turmoil, bucked the risk-off trend and dipped 0.7 per cent, perhaps reflecting profit-taking after recent gains.

The US Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of currencies, nudged down 0.2 per cent, suggesting that even the dollar’s safe-haven status isn’t immune to the broader uncertainty.

Then there’s the cryptocurrency market, which has taken a beating amid this storm. Bitcoin, the bellwether of digital assets, fell more than three per cent on Tuesday morning in Asia, dipping to its lowest level since November. Ether, the second-ranked token, saw an even sharper decline, dropping as much as six per cent to US$1,756—an intraday low not seen since October 2023—before paring some losses.

These moves came hot on the heels of a tech-led sell-off in US equities, with the Nasdaq 100 Index plunging 3.8 per cent in its worst day since October 2022. Crypto, often seen as a barometer of risk appetite, is buckling under the same pressures battering stocks—namely, fears that Trump’s tariff policies and chaotic governance could kneecap economic growth.

What’s driving this pervasive unease? Data offers some clues. The New York Fed’s latest survey of consumer expectations, released for February, paints a worrisome picture. One-year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.13 per cent, above forecasts, signalling that Americans anticipate stickier prices ahead.

More troubling, the survey revealed growing public concern about credit conditions and the job market, alongside expectations of steeper price hikes for essentials like gas, rent, and food. This erosion of consumer confidence is a red flag—households are the backbone of US economic activity, and their pessimism could presage a self-fulfilling slowdown.

Across the globe, the data is a mixed bag. In the Eurozone, the Sentix investor confidence survey for March climbed to -2.9, a sign of cautious optimism among investors. Germany, the region’s economic engine, posted a split result: industrial production rose, but exports declined, hinting at uneven recovery.

In Japan, the February Eco Watchers survey—which gauges sentiment among small and medium enterprises—came in weaker than expected, suggesting that grassroots confidence is faltering. These disparate signals underscore the uneven terrain global economies are navigating as they grapple with US-centric risks.

Trump’s rhetoric isn’t helping. His warning of a “little disturbance” from trade wars with Canada, Mexico, and China has Wall Street buzzing with concern. Strategists and economists are revising their outlooks, with many now assigning higher odds to a US economic downturn.

Posts on X reflect this jittery sentiment: one user noted the Nasdaq’s US$520 billion market cap wipeout in a single day, likening it to twice the value of top altcoins, while another pointed to Trump’s unpredictable decision-making as a deterrent to both domestic and foreign investors.

A Reuters dispatch highlighted pushback from Trump’s economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who dismissed recession talk tied to tariff uncertainty, but the damage seems done—stocks keep sliding, and consumer pessimism is deepening.

From my vantage point, this feels like a pivotal moment. The markets are signaling something more than a routine correction; they’re grappling with a confluence of risks that could tip the scales. Trump’s tariff threats, if enacted, could disrupt global supply chains and inflate costs, hitting US consumers and businesses alike. His government firings add another layer of instability, undermining confidence in policy continuity.

Couple that with a public increasingly anxious about jobs and credit, and you’ve got a recipe for stagnation—or worse. The bond rally and VIX spike suggest investors are battening down the hatches, preparing for a storm that may or may not materialise.

Yet, there’s a flip side. Transitions, as Trump calls them, can be messy but necessary. If his administration navigates this period deftly—say, by tempering tariff rhetoric with targeted stimulus or stabilising governance—the US might emerge stronger.

The New York Fed’s inflation uptick could even prod the Fed to hold rates steady, providing a buffer against a hard landing. Europe’s improving investor confidence and Germany’s industrial resilience offer glimmers of hope that the global economy isn’t entirely hostage to US whims.

Still, the data and market moves I’ve pored over lean bearish. The S&P and Nasdaq’s sharp drops, the VIX’s leap, and crypto’s stumble all point to a risk-off mindset that’s hard to shake. Asia’s early trading losses and Brent crude’s slide reinforce the narrative of softening demand.

For now, I’d wager we’re in for more volatility—Wall Street’s jitters won’t subside until Trump’s next move becomes clearer. I’ll keep digging into the numbers and sentiment, but one thing’s certain: the world’s eyes are on Washington, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Source: https://e27.co/wall-streets-reckoning-how-trumps-words-sparked-a-global-sell-off-20250311/