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Oil spikes, bonds crash, Bitcoin drops: Here is what comes next

Oil spikes, bonds crash, Bitcoin drops: Here is what comes next

Bitcoin’s retreat to US$76,632.16 reflects more than a routine correction. It captures a moment when geopolitical friction, macro uncertainty, and technical structure converged to test market conviction. The trigger came from escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. A social media warning from Donald Trump stating that time is running out for Tehran abruptly shifted sentiment.

Risk assets wobbled as Brent crude surged above US$112 per barrel before cooling toward US$107 to US$109, following diplomatic appeals from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE that prompted a temporary pause in military action. That energy spike reignited inflation concerns and pushed expectations toward a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve policy, a headwind for any asset that thrives on abundant liquidity.

The macro shock exposed fragile positioning in crypto markets. Over US$607 million in bullish long positions were forcefully liquidated within 24 hours, part of a broader US$677 million wave of leveraged crypto long liquidations. When price fails to hold key levels, algorithmic selling and margin calls can accelerate moves far beyond fundamental justification. Bitcoin’s inability to clear its 200-day moving average near US$82,000 added technical pressure.

That rejection dragged the asset down to a critical support zone around US$76,000. Analysts note this level must hold to prevent a steeper structural breakdown toward US$65,000. The 200-week moving average near US$69,000 serves as a long-term trend reference, not a magnetic target price to be hit. Moving averages smooth past action; they do not dictate future paths.

The current weekly chart signals weakening momentum rather than outright capitulation. Price trades below shorter-term exponential moving averages but remains well above the 200-week trend line. The MACD indicator appears relatively controlled, suggesting the selloff lacks the extreme divergence often seen at major bottoms or tops. In strong trends, Bitcoin frequently establishes higher lows long before testing its slowest averages.

A move toward the low US$70,000s remains realistic if risk sentiment deteriorates further, but declaring US$61,000 inevitable simply because the 200-week moving average exists feels oversimplified. Markets respect context, and right now that context includes a regulatory landscape that is quietly evolving.

While traders navigate short-term volatility, Washington advanced a potentially transformative piece of legislation. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act, cleared a key hurdle when the Senate Banking Committee approved it in a bipartisan 15 to nine vote. This markup represents the first time a comprehensive crypto market structure bill has gained such momentum in the Senate.

The legislation aims to split oversight between the SEC and CFTC, define which digital assets qualify as digital commodities, and establish clearer registration and compliance frameworks for exchanges, brokers, and custodians. Provisions like a mature blockchain test and safe harbours for developers and noncustodial wallets seek to protect open source projects and peer-to-peer usage. If enacted broadly as described, large networks such as Bitcoin could receive clearer commodity treatment, easing institutional participation and exchange compliance.

Significant hurdles remain before the CLARITY Act becomes law. The bill must be merged with a separate Senate Agriculture Committee version, then secure 60 votes on the Senate floor, which requires at least seven Democratic votes. Ethics disputes over officials’ crypto holdings, the treatment of DeFi protocols and stablecoins, and a tight calendar window from June to early August, before recess and election politics intensify, all pose challenges.

Galaxy Digital’s research arm currently estimates a three-in-four chance that the bill becomes law in 2026, with an optimistic window for a presidential signature around early August if Congress moves quickly. For crypto participants, the critical signal will be whether Senate leaders schedule and win that 60-vote floor passage in the coming weeks. Without it, current momentum can still stall.

Global financial markets mirrored this fragmentation on 19 May 2026. US equity indices finished mixed as money rotated out of high-flying technology names and into defensive assets. The S&P 500 edged down 0.07 per cent to 7,403.05 while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.51 per cent to 26,090.73, dragged by a sharp correction in semiconductors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.32 per cent to 49,686.12, supported by energy and traditional industrial components. Fixed-income markets drove much of the anxiety.

The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly breached 4.60 per cent, a fresh one-year high, while 30-year yields hovered above 5.10 per cent. Hotter-than-expected inflation metrics tied to Middle East tensions led traders to price in no 2026 rate cuts, with some shifting bets toward a potential hike later this year. International bond markets echoed the stress, with Japanese Government Bond 30-year yields touching multi-decade highs and UK Gilts experiencing similar spikes.

Sector performance highlighted the rotation. Memory chip and AI infrastructure names were hit hard after Seagate management expressed near-term supply-chain and demand constraints. Seagate fell roughly seven per cent to eight per cent, Micron declined six per cent, and Nvidia slipped two per cent ahead of its highly anticipated earnings release.

Meanwhile, defensive sectors and energy giants like Chevron gained ground, helping rescue the Dow. The equal-weighted S&P 500 notably outperformed its tech-heavy cap-weighted counterpart, underscoring the breadth of the rotation. In commodities, Brent crude cooled slightly as geopolitical fears eased marginally, while spot gold managed a slight rebound near US$4,589 per ounce, finding support from central bank accumulation despite a firmer US dollar.

These crosscurrents matter for Bitcoin’s path. The asset does not trade in isolation. It reacts to real yields, dollar strength, risk sentiment, and regulatory signals.

 

Source: https://e27.co/oil-spikes-bonds-crash-bitcoin-drops-here-is-what-comes-next-20260519/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

While you were sleeping: Iran closed a critical oil route and crypto exploits

While you were sleeping: Iran closed a critical oil route and crypto exploits

Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market capitalisation has contracted by 1.74 per cent to settle at US$2.51T, a decline that reveals deeper structural concerns within the digital asset ecosystem. This selloff arrives at a particularly ironic moment, given that traditional equity markets closed at record highs just days prior on April 17, with the S&P 500 reaching 7,126.06, the Nasdaq Composite climbing to 24,468.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching 49,447.43. The stark divergence between these two worlds tells a story of a crypto market still struggling to mature beyond its inherent vulnerabilities.

The primary catalyst for this latest downturn stems from a devastating US$292M exploit targeting Kelp DAO’s rsETH bridge on April 19. This incident did not occur in isolation; it triggered immediate systemic risk across the decentralised finance landscape. Major protocols, including Aave and Treehouse, found themselves scrambling to review their exposures, sparking a wave of panic withdrawals that rippled through Ethereum-based DeFi platforms.

The impact on Ethereum itself proved severe, with the asset declining 3.18 per cent as investors fled leveraged positions and liquidity evaporated from key trading pairs. This episode underscores a persistent and uncomfortable truth about the crypto ecosystem. Smart-contract vulnerabilities remain a critical weakness that can undermine market confidence in a matter of hours.

What makes this situation particularly concerning is the timing. The exploit coincided with escalating geopolitical tensions as Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. This development sent shockwaves through global markets, with Brent crude oil surging approximately six to seven per cent to exceed US$95 per barrel. The reintroduction of such significant risk premiums has forced traders to reassess their exposure to speculative assets across the board.

Crypto markets, despite their narrative of decentralisation and independence from traditional finance, have demonstrated remarkable sensitivity to these macro shocks. The 7-day correlation between crypto and Gold has reached 81 per cent, indicating that during periods of uncertainty, digital assets increasingly move in tandem with traditional safe-haven instruments rather than maintaining their promised role as an uncorrelated alternative investment.

The International Monetary Fund recently cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent, warning that continued energy supply disruptions could push the economy toward a more adverse 2.5 per cent scenario. This backdrop of economic uncertainty heightens pressure on risk assets, and crypto is particularly exposed given its relatively short track record of navigating genuine geopolitical crises. The market now faces a critical test as it attempts to determine whether the rsETH exploit represents an isolated incident or the beginning of a broader contagion that could cascade through interconnected DeFi protocols.

The market has established US$2.44T as a crucial Fibonacci support level that must hold to prevent further deterioration. Should the market consolidate between this US$2.44T floor and the US$2.53T resistance level, it would suggest that the worst of the selling pressure has been absorbed. A sustained break below US$2.44T would open the door to testing the US$2.35T level, which would represent a much more severe correction.

Bitcoin’s dominance currently sits at 59.3 per cent, and this metric will prove essential in determining whether the market can stabilise. If Bitcoin maintains its defensive anchor role while altcoins continue to weaken, it would indicate a flight to quality within the crypto ecosystem itself. Conversely, if Bitcoin’s dominance begins to erode, it would signal broader market distress.

The path forward depends on several critical factors that will unfold over the coming days.

  • First, the crypto community needs clarity on the total losses stemming from the Kelp DAO exploit and assurance that no additional vulnerabilities exist in related protocols.
  • Second, markets require some resolution or de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz situation, as continued geopolitical tension will keep risk premiums elevated across all asset classes.
  • Third, investors await S&P Global flash PMIs later this week to gauge how the US economy navigates elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty, as any signs of economic deterioration would further pressure risk assets.

The divergence between traditional equity markets hitting record highs and crypto markets under siege reveals the immature nature of digital assets as an investment class. While the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones posted gains of 1.20 per cent, 1.52 per cent, and 1.79 per cent, respectively, on April 17, crypto markets have proven unable to insulate themselves from either technical exploits or macroeconomic shocks. This reality challenges the narrative that cryptocurrencies are a mature alternative investment vehicle and instead positions them as highly speculative assets vulnerable to both internal technical failures and external geopolitical pressures.

The week of April 20, 2026, will prove pivotal in determining whether the crypto market can demonstrate resilience amid compound crises or succumb to a more severe correction that could take months to recover from. Investors would be wise to monitor both the technical support levels and the broader geopolitical landscape with equal attention, as the convergence of these factors will likely dictate market direction in the critical days ahead.

 

Source: https://e27.co/while-you-were-sleeping-iran-closed-a-critical-oil-route-and-crypto-exploits-20260420/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Oil surges 59% in March while S&P 500 drops 6%: What this means for your crypto portfolio

Oil surges 59% in March while S&P 500 drops 6%: What this means for your crypto portfolio

Traditional markets opened under significant pressure as the US–Iran conflict entered its fifth week, creating a risk-off environment that rippled across every asset class. Oil prices surged, recession fears mounted, and stagflation concerns dominated trader conversations. This moment demands clear analysis from those who understand both traditional finance and the emerging decentralised economy.

Major indices trended lower across the board. The S&P 500 fell to approximately 6,329 points, marking a 0.63 per cent drop from the previous session. Technology stocks bore the brunt as Nasdaq-100 futures slipped roughly 0.4 per cent amid higher interest-rate pressures. Dow Jones futures fell 0.5 per cent, with the index tumbling over 3,000 points in March alone, representing approximately six per cent of its value. Asian markets showed similar weakness, with the ASX 200 dropping 1.48 per cent in Monday trading, though the energy sector provided a partial offset. These numbers tell a story of capital fleeing risk assets as geopolitical tensions escalate.

Commodities and currencies painted an equally volatile picture. Brent crude headed for a record monthly rise, up approximately 59 per cent in March due to the conflict and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate prices remained volatile, recently rebounding toward US$94.05. Gold saw some dip-buying after a brutal month, trading around US$4,556 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising interest-rate expectations. The US Dollar strengthened as well, with the DXY index gaining to 99.90 as global uncertainty drove capital toward perceived safety.

Three key drivers explain this market turbulence. Geopolitical escalation intensified as reports emerged of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Houthi attacks on Israel, fuelling fears of prolonged war. Recession alarms grew louder as Moody’s AI-driven recession model hit a 49 per cent probability, the highest in years, fuelled by weak labour data and high energy costs. Monetary policy expectations shifted dramatically as markets stopped pricing in Fed rate cuts for 2026, with some traders now bracing for further hikes to combat energy-driven inflation.

Bitcoin presented an interesting counterpoint to this traditional market chaos. The leading cryptocurrency rose 0.429 per cent to US$66,642.41 in the past 24 hours, slightly underperforming the broader crypto market’s 0.49 per cent gain. This movement reflected a beta-driven shift with the overall crypto market as total market cap rose 0.49 per cent on slightly higher volume. No clear coin-specific catalyst emerged, suggesting the move represented general market drift rather than fundamental conviction.

Technical indicators showed Bitcoin trading just above the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$66,012, drawn from recent swing highs and lows. The 7-day RSI reading of 34.31 indicated oversold conditions, attracting short-term buying interest. Spot trading volume sat at US$22.55 billion, requiring sustained increases to confirm any shift in conviction. The near-term outlook remained neutral to bearish, with the price struggling to hold above key moving averages. If Bitcoin holds above the US$66,000 support level and ETF outflows slow, consolidation toward US$67,500 becomes possible. A break below US$66,000 risks a drop toward the next support near US$64,500.

Market sentiment metrics reinforced this cautious picture. The CMC Fear and Greed Index read 25 out of 100, indicating Fear, improving slightly from 23 yesterday but down from 32 last week. This places sentiment firmly in negative territory, though less extreme than the 14 reading from a month ago. Social media sentiment scored 4.85 out of 10, reflecting mildly bearish chatter mixing bullish regulatory hopes with bearish liquidation warnings. The total crypto market cap stood at US$2.29 trillion, down 1.82 per cent over the past 7 days, with oversold RSI readings but weak derivative volume signalling low conviction.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows showed US$296.18 million in net outflows last week, representing persistent institutional selling pressure. The spot-versus-perpetuals volume ratio remained low at 0.26, indicating derivatives dominance. Average funding rates turned negative to -0.0011139 per cent, indicating a short-positioning bias. The total market RSI at 26.23 approached oversold levels, suggesting the sell-off might exhaust itself and create potential for stabilisation.

This environment reveals both vulnerabilities and opportunities in the current financial architecture. Traditional markets demonstrate their fragility when geopolitical shocks hit, with indices tumbling thousands of points in weeks. Energy costs drive inflation that central banks struggle to manage without triggering a recession. The 49 per cent recession probability from Moody’s model reflects systemic weakness that monetary policy alone cannot fix.

Bitcoin’s performance during this period shows why decentralised assets matter in times of traditional market stress. While the 0.429 per cent gain seems modest, it represents positive movement when traditional indices fell 0.5 per cent to 1.48 per cent. The cryptocurrency market’s US$2.29 trillion capitalisation provides meaningful diversification, though the Fear and Greed Index at 25 shows investors remain cautious about digital assets, too. This caution creates opportunity for those who understand that oversold conditions often precede reversals.

The institutional flow data tells an important story. The US$296.18 million in weekly ETF outflows shows that traditional finance participants are reducing exposure amid uncertainty. Bitcoin holding above US$66,000 support suggests underlying demand exists at these levels. The negative funding rate of -0.0011139 per cent indicates traders’ positioning for further declines, which often sets up contrarian opportunities when sentiment reaches extremes.

Energy-driven inflation presents particular challenges for monetary policy. With Brent crude up 59 per cent in March and WTI rebounding toward US$94.05, central banks face impossible choices between fighting inflation and preventing recession. Markets no longer price in Fed rate cuts for 2026, with some traders expecting hikes instead. This environment benefits assets with fixed supply schedules that cannot be debased through monetary expansion.

The path forward depends on several critical factors. Bitcoin must defend the US$66,000 level in the next 24 to 48 hours to maintain technical support. Spot ETF flows need to show stabilisation to reduce institutional selling pressure. The CMC Fear and Greed Index requires a sustained move above 30 to signal a shift in sentiment toward neutral territory. Traditional markets need geopolitical de-escalation to reduce the 49 per cent probability of recession.

This moment separates short-term traders from long-term builders. Those focused on daily price movements see fear and uncertainty. For me, I am eyeing the oil price. If the price is high, nothing good will come of it. Just my opinion. 

—

 

Source: https://e27.co/oil-surges-59-in-march-while-sp-500-drops-6-what-this-means-for-your-crypto-portfolio-20260330/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j