The market finally exhaled, Ethereum turned 11: The question is whether it can hold its breath again

The market finally exhaled, Ethereum turned 11: The question is whether it can hold its breath again

The crypto space climbed 1.1 per cent to US$2.21 trillion in the last 24 hours. What caught my eye first was where the demand concentrated. Layer 1 tokens led the charge, with the category gaining 1.45 per cent and outperforming the broader landscape. Ethereum and Solana dominated social media conversations, and the timing was no accident. Ethereum celebrated its 11th anniversary on the same day, and posts commemorating the mainnet launch generated a wave of bullish energy across trading communities.

This was not some manufactured hype cycle. People were genuinely reflecting on what Ethereum has built over more than a decade, and that reflective mood translated into real purchasing activity. Capital rotated into these core protocol assets in a way that signals a risk-on shift within crypto itself, not just a mindless beta play riding external momentum. I find that encouraging because it suggests participants are making deliberate allocation choices rather than simply chasing whatever ticks up first.

The supporting conditions around this advance also tell a compelling story. Bitcoin liquidations plunged 62 per cent over 24 hours to just US$22.55 million. Read that number again. When forced selling dries up to that degree, it removes a persistent ceiling that had previously capped attempts at prolonged upward movement.

Traders who might have been squeezed out of positions simply were not there to create that downward weight. The market had room to breathe, and it used that room effectively. A cleaner base with less leverage hanging over it gives any climb more legitimacy, and I believe we are watching exactly that unfold.

No honest assessment of this session can ignore the macro backdrop, because crypto did not advance in isolation. The correlation between digital assets and the S&P 500 hit 76 per cent over the past 24 hours, while the correlation with Gold reached 79 per cent. Those are high numbers, and they confirm this was a broad, macro-driven rotation rather than something unique to the blockchain world. Wall Street rebounded with force after a bruising stretch.

The Nasdaq jumped 2.8 per cent to snap a six-day losing streak. The S&P 500 climbed 1.7 per cent to 7,437.63. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 613.92 points, or 1.2 per cent, to close at 52,208.06. Microsoft alone skyrocketed 16 per cent after robust cloud and Azure results eased investor anxiety over artificial intelligence spending, adding a record US$450 billion in market value in one session.

Chip stocks followed suit, with Micron Technology soaring 18 per cent and Advanced Micro Devices climbing over 13 per cent. Across the Pacific, South Korea’s Kospi Index rocketed by up to 15 per cent in a historic intraday rebound powered by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped over 5 per cent.

When traditional markets rally with that kind of determination, crypto benefits from the improved liquidity environment, and pretending otherwise would be intellectually dishonest. I view this correlation as a positive for now because it means digital assets are participating in a genuine global risk-on rotation rather than floating untethered from reality.

Looking ahead, the technical picture presents a clear test. The total market cap sits right at the US$2.21 trillion pivot point, and the immediate hurdle is the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci level at US$2.23 trillion, with a stronger barrier at the recent swing high of US$2.26 trillion.

If buyers can push through that zone, the advance gains real credibility. If they cannot, we likely return to the range-bound trading that has defined recent weeks. For Ethereum specifically, analysts point to US$1,975 as the key breakout level that could open a path toward US$2,300. I will be watching that threshold closely because a decisive reclaim there would confirm the anniversary-driven enthusiasm has legs beyond a single news cycle.

One event looms large over the next 24 hours and could inject significant volatility into the picture. Over US$10.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire on July 31. That is an enormous notional amount, and an expiry of this magnitude has historically created sharp price swings as market makers adjust their hedges and positions roll over.

The climb we witnessed could either accelerate through expiry as bullish positioning reinforces itself, or it could stall and reverse as profit-taking meets the mechanical selling that large expiries often generate. I lean toward the former given the reduced liquidation environment, but I would not bet the house on it.

My overall read is cautiously bullish, and I use the word cautiously deliberately. The ingredients for a lasting push higher are present. Narrative-driven demand in Layer 1 tokens gives the run a story and a reason to exist beyond pure speculation. The macro backdrop broadly supports risk assets.

Leverage has flushed out, leaving a healthier structure underneath. But translating one good day into a trend requires follow-through, and the US$2.23 trillion to US$2.26 trillion barrier will demand exactly that. Social mood can ignite a move, but only continued capital inflow can carry it through meaningful overhead supply.

All things considered, this session felt like the market exhaling after holding its breath for too long. The combination of Ethereum’s milestone, Solana’s continued relevance, a dramatic drop in forced selling, and a powerful global equity rebound created conditions where buyers finally had permission to step in. Whether they maintain that confidence through a massive options expiry and into next week remains the open question. But for now, the tape looks constructive, the narrative feels organic, and the macro winds are at our backs.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-market-finally-exhaled-ethereum-turned-11-the-question-is-whether-it-can-hold-its-breath-again-20260731/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Bitcoin volume drops 6.14%, and everyone calls a bottom, I disagree

Bitcoin volume drops 6.14%, and everyone calls a bottom, I disagree

Bitcoin sits at US$66,188.15 this morning, down 0.65 per cent over the past 24 hours, and the number tells only a fraction of the story. The cryptocurrency pulled back from a one-month high near US$67,000 as WTI crude oil surged above US$85 and then climbed further toward US$94 per barrel amid an escalating US-Iran conflict now in its second week.

The broader crypto market cap slipped 0.47 per cent alongside Bitcoin, volume contracted 6.14 per cent, and Bitcoin dominance held near 59 per cent with no meaningful capital rotation into altcoins. On the surface, this looks like a gentle consolidation after a recovery rally from July lows.

But when I step back and look at the full macro picture unfolding on July 23, 2026, I struggle to share the optimism that we have found a floor. The global factors stacking up right now suggest Bitcoin has more downside to endure before any sustainable recovery takes shape.

The oil story dominates everything else at this moment. Crude prices above US$94 per barrel represent the highest levels since June, and they carry direct implications for inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. The US-Iran conflict shows no signs of de-escalation as it enters its second week, which means supply disruption risks remain firmly on the table. Higher energy costs feed into transport, manufacturing, and consumer prices across the board. Airlines already face margin compression.

Treasury yields hover near 2026 peaks as bond markets price in the possibility that the Fed keeps rates higher for longer. The July 28 FOMC meeting looms as the next critical catalyst, and if the statement hints at delayed rate cuts or, worse, another hike, risk assets, including Bitcoin, will absorb the blow directly. Bitcoin in this environment behaves exactly like a leveraged tech stock rather than a decoupled store of value, and that correlation works against holders when macro conditions deteriorate.

The equity backdrop reinforces my caution. Wall Street benchmarks finished lower overnight, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slipping as megacap tech earnings delivered mixed signals. Tesla fell around four per cent after missing both revenue and margin estimates. Alphabet reported strong Q2 cloud growth but slid in extended trading as investors baulked at plans to increase capital expenditures. Yes, Super Micro Computer surged 20 per cent on strong AI server margin forecasts, but that single bright spot does not offset the broader disappointment.

The AI narrative that has propped up markets for over one year now faces scrutiny on whether spending translates into returns. When growth stocks wobble, Bitcoin wobbles harder. The 6.14 per cent drop in crypto trading volume suggests buyers have stepped back and lack the conviction to defend current levels. This is not the behaviour of a market that has found its bottom.

Technically, Bitcoin tests its daily pivot near US$66,103 right now. The immediate Fibonacci support sits at US$64,750, representing the 23.6 per cent retracement level. Below that, the US$63,000 to US$63,400 zone serves as the next meaningful floor. Overhead, the 100-day EMA near US$68,000 caps any rally attempt. The structure looks neutral on paper, but I read it as fragile.

A close below US$64,750 opens the trapdoor toward US$63,000, and given the macro headwinds I just described, I think that break becomes more probable with each passing day of elevated oil prices and unresolved geopolitical tension. The recovery channel from July lows remains intact for now, but channels break, and they tend to break in the direction of the prevailing macro wind.

Grayscale research head Zach Pandl offers a more constructive view, suggesting Bitcoin’s recent price low might hold if the Federal Reserve ends interest rate hikes and economic growth remains stable. He treats Bitcoin as a mature asset influenced by growth and Fed policy, rather than by the traditional four-year cycle model, which would predict a longer bear market and deeper declines.

Grayscale also points to the CLARITY Act and Strategy’s improved financial position, including a US$216 million Bitcoin sale that strengthened cash reserves and reduced forced selling risks, as structural positives. I respect that framework, but it relies on the Fed cooperating and growth holding steady. With oil above US$94 and inflation concerns resurfacing, the Fed has every reason to stay hawkish. The conditions Pandl requires for a bottom simply do not exist right now.

SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci argues that Bitcoin will grind higher from here and cannot get much worse. I appreciate the sentiment, but the global picture tells a different story. Mixed Asian markets preparing for a cautious open, a steady US Dollar against the Yen and Euro that signals continued risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions with no resolution timeline all point toward sustained pressure. The AI boom cushions some of the blow in equities, but it does not immunise crypto from a liquidity squeeze if yields push higher.

Here is where I land. Bitcoin at US$66,188.15 reflects a market in pause, not a market in recovery. The 0.65 per cent daily decline understates the vulnerability beneath the surface. Oil above US$94, an active US-Iran conflict, disappointing tech earnings, yields at 2026 peaks, and an FOMC meeting five days away create a cocktail of risk that has not fully priced into crypto.

The 6.14 per cent volume decline confirms that participants are waiting on the sidelines rather than accumulating. Bitcoin dominance at 59 per cent shows no rotation, no excitement, no fresh capital entering the ecosystem. I do not think we have bottomed.

The US$64,750 level will face a serious test before July ends, and if the FOMC disappoints or oil pushes toward US$100, the US$63,000 zone becomes the realistic near-term target. Patience, not optimism, serves holders best in this environment. The macro picture has not given us permission to call a bottom, and until it does, every rally toward US$68,000 looks like a selling opportunity rather than a breakout.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-volume-drops-6-14-and-everyone-calls-a-bottom-i-disagree-20260723/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Could your Bitcoin balance soon help you qualify for a home mortgage?

Could your Bitcoin balance soon help you qualify for a home mortgage?

Bitcoin currently trades sideways around the US$64,000 level as global risk appetite wanes significantly. Market participants closely monitor the escalating possibility of a full-scale war between the United States and Iran. According to CoinMarketCap data this morning, the price per bitcoin stood at US$64,682. This represents a slight decline of 0.15 per cent from 24 hours earlier. In contrast, Ethereum, the leading alternative virtual asset, demonstrated relative resilience, rising 0.5 per cent from the previous day to US$1,870. This divergence highlights the complex dynamics at play within the broader digital asset ecosystem during periods of heightened geopolitical tension and market uncertainty.

Middle East geopolitical risks actively stoke inflation across global markets. This persistent inflationary pressure directly limits the potential for near-term central bank interest rate cuts. Consequently, this restrictive monetary reality caps the immediate upside potential for Bitcoin and other risk assets. We observe this macroeconomic correlation clearly in international oil markets. As of 6 p.m. Eastern time, September Brent crude rose 3.12 per cent from the previous session to US$90.85 a barrel. This marked the first time since the 11th of last month that Brent crude topped US$90. Simultaneously, West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.1 per cent to US$85.05 a barrel.

Traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency markets consistently move in tandem during periods of systemic stress. The current hesitation in Bitcoin price action reflects a broader market reassessment of risk. Investors actively price in the reality that persistent inflation will keep monetary policy restrictive. This environment demands a sophisticated understanding of how digital assets function. They are no longer mere speculative instruments but are becoming integral components of a modernising and increasingly decentralised financial architecture. Market participants now recognise that digital scarcity and decentralised consensus provide a unique hedge against fiat currency debasement.

Despite these immediate macroeconomic headwinds, a structural shift is underway in how traditional finance views digital wealth. The American Homeowner Crypto Modernization Act represents a critical step toward bridging the gap between decentralised finance and mainstream credit access. Representative Nancy Mace introduced this legislation to mandate that federal housing agencies update their underwriting rules. Agencies including the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency must treat verified digital assets alongside traditional savings, stocks, and bonds.

This legislative proposal focuses strictly on asset recognition rather than enabling mortgage payments in cryptocurrency. Borrowers could count their crypto holdings as part of their total asset base. The compliance requirements are stringent and deliberate. Applicants must provide concrete proof of ownership, detailed transaction records, and official exchange documentation. A simple wallet screenshot will not suffice for federal underwriting standards. This rigorous documentation standard aims to satisfy regulatory concerns while validating the financial standing of applicants whose wealth concentrates heavily in digital assets rather than traditional banking accounts.

We must remain realistic about the legislative timeline and the inherent hurdles ahead. The bill currently sits at the committee stage in the House of Representatives. The House Clerk formally referred the measure to both the House Committee on Financial Services and the House Committee on Veterans Affairs. It still needs to clear these committees, pass the full House, navigate the Senate, and secure a presidential signature. Timelines remain inherently uncertain. Debates surrounding consumer protection and financial stability guarantee that housing-related crypto legislation will face intense scrutiny and likely amendments before any final legislative vote.

If this bill eventually becomes law, the practical impact on borrowers will prove highly significant. Individuals with substantial crypto portfolios will find it much easier to meet asset and reserve requirements for home loans. This is particularly true if regulatory agencies allow stablecoins to function similarly to cash equivalents in standard underwriting models. Such a progressive change would democratise access to homeownership for a demographic that has historically faced severe friction when trying to leverage digital wealth for traditional financial goals like buying a home. This shift empowers a new generation of wealth builders who prioritise self-custody and decentralised finance over legacy banking institutions.

Lenders and regulators will inevitably implement strict guardrails to manage this new asset class. They must actively manage volatility, concentration risk, and potential fraud within mortgage portfolios. We can expect financial institutions to apply conservative haircuts to the assessed value of non-stablecoin holdings. Stricter documentation protocols will become the absolute norm for these applicants. These risk controls are necessary to protect both the borrower and the lending institution. They also reflect a maturing regulatory approach that acknowledges the validity of crypto assets while mitigating their inherent market fluctuations.

This legislative movement aligns perfectly with a broader vision for the future of global financial infrastructure. As I explore in my ongoing research regarding the convergence of artificial intelligence and decentralised systems, true financial innovation requires seamless interoperability between legacy systems and emerging technologies. Treating verified crypto holdings as legitimate collateral directly challenges outdated financial tests that fail to capture the reality of decentralised wealth. It signals a gradual but undeniable shift toward a more inclusive, transparent and human-centric financial ecosystem that serves modern economic participants.

We must treat this bill as an early signal rather than an immediate solution for borrowers. United States policy begins to formally link crypto wealth to mainstream credit access for the first time. Implementation will proceed slowly, and institutional risk rules will remain conservative. The directional momentum is clear. Regulated recognition of digital asset balances will gradually transform how households qualify for major loans. Despite the current sideways price action stemming from geopolitical fears, this foundational progress in legislative recognition reinforces a fundamentally bullish outlook for the long-term integration of cryptocurrency into the global economy.

The intersection of macroeconomic pressure and legislative progress defines the current era of digital assets. While oil prices and geopolitical tensions dictate short-term price action, the structural integration of crypto into traditional finance dictates long-term value. Recognising digital assets in mortgage underwriting validates years of advocacy by the crypto community. It proves that decentralised wealth can coexist with regulated financial systems. This bill is a testament to the resilience of the industry. We are witnessing the early stages of a financial paradigm shift. The path forward requires patience, but the destination promises a more equitable, transparent, and technologically advanced economic landscape for all participants.

 

Source: https://e27.co/could-your-bitcoin-balance-soon-help-you-qualify-for-a-home-mortgage-20260720/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j