Tag Archives: per

Why Bitcoin’s record on chain activity is not the price guarantee you think it is

Why Bitcoin’s record on chain activity is not the price guarantee you think it is

Bitcoin has retreated by 0.52 per cent over a 24h period, sliding to US$63,593.12 and underperforming a generally flat broader market. This downward movement stems primarily from a firm technical rejection at key resistance zones alongside cooling momentum following a strong weekly rally. Sellers emerged to halt the July advance, which had reached 8.4 per cent before hitting a known technical ceiling near US$65,800. Compounding this technical slowdown is a notable 13.95 per cent drop in 24h trading volume, indicating reduced buying conviction after the market booked four consecutive daily gains last week.

Beyond the immediate price action and cooling technical indicators, underlying demand metrics point to broader institutional hesitation in Western markets. United States spot demand remains structurally subdued, as evidenced by the Coinbase premium remaining negative for over 50 days. This persistent discount suggests that domestic retail and institutional investors are withholding aggressive buy orders, leaving spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows highly inconsistent. At the same time, aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures markets has declined. This reduction in open interest signals that speculative leverage is actively leaving the market rather than expanding, leaving recent price gains vulnerable to pullbacks without a strong institutional bid to support the base.

While the short-term price action remains constrained by these technical ceilings and cooling derivatives markets, the underlying Bitcoin network is experiencing an unprecedented surge in utility. On-chain data indicate that Bitcoin is processing its highest sustained transaction volume in its 17-year history. The network is averaging approximately 670,000 transactions per day throughout 2026, nearly doubling last year’s activity and approaching prior all-time highs. A deeper analysis reveals that recent data indicate the network processes an average of 673,822 transactions per day. This broad-based rebound in usage is characterised by a high volume of small transactions and emerging applications, rather than by large-value transfers alone.

Specific daily metrics confirm the historic scale of this on-chain activity. According to block data, the Bitcoin network processed 862,979 transactions on June 23, 2026, marking the 3rd-busiest single day in the protocol’s history. This explosive activity lifted the daily average for June 2026 to 651,655 transactions, a 90 per cent increase over the June 2025 daily average of 342,866 transactions. Both the median and average daily transaction counts across 2026 now comfortably exceed the full-year totals for 2024 and 2025. This structural shift is driven largely by an increase in smaller transactions, alongside innovative use cases such as Bitcoin non-fungible tokens and timestamping services that write data directly to the blockchain.

This high transaction count introduces a complex dynamic for the ecosystem, as it reflects a diverse mix of traditional value transfers, exchange settlements, whale movements, and newer programmable applications. For everyday users, this elevated activity demands close observation of average fees, mempool sizes, and layer 2 sidechain congestion to determine if the base layer can handle the load. The current market outlook remains neutral to bearish below immediate resistance, though the primary trend hinges on the US$63,619 support level, which aligns with the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci regression. If Bitcoin can defend this support level, it sets up another potential run toward US$65,800, whereas a daily close below this level risks an immediate drop to US$61,377.

The market’s immediate direction is closely tied to broader macroeconomic shocks and sudden geopolitical escalations that are fracturing global investor confidence. Major global financial markets fell sharply as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with a steep semiconductor sell-off, broke the record-setting momentum on Wall Street. Following Iran’s targeting of three commercial tankers in the critical Strait of Hormuz, the United States military executed powerful retaliatory airstrikes. Simultaneously, the United States Treasury revoked a vital waiver that had previously allowed Iran to sell crude oil globally, triggering fears of severe supply disruptions and sending global energy benchmarks rocketing upward.

The impact of these energy market disruptions was immediate and volatile across global oil benchmarks. Brent crude surged by over five per cent to breach US$75.70 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 5.3 per cent to finish trading above US$72.20 per barrel. This inflationary energy shock hit equity markets precisely as technology stocks suffered an independent structural rout. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell significantly, led by a 4.65 per cent plunge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Investor confidence in long-term market dominance and pricing power evaporated after reports that a Chinese startup, DeepSeek, is independently developing its own artificial intelligence chip architecture, shaking the core growth thesis of established technology giants.

This shift in technology sector sentiment highlights a growing disconnect between blockbuster corporate earnings and loftier investor expectations. Samsung Electronics reported record preliminary quarterly profits, yet its stock still plunged 6.9 per cent in Asian trading, illustrating that market expectations for artificial intelligence build-out metrics have reached unsustainably high levels. The resulting sector pullback forced major tech components lower, with Micron falling 4.7 per cent and SanDisk retreating by 7.3 per cent. These equity losses were exacerbated by macro pressures in fixed-income markets, where the United States 10-Year Treasury yield edged up to 4.556 per cent, compressing stock valuations across high-growth sectors.

Faced with these overlapping pressures, investors are demonstrating severe caution ahead of the afternoon release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the June meeting. This policy document represents the very first official communication issued under the leadership of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Market participants are waiting to see whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 7-day exponential moving average near US$62,702 or if macro comments will force a deeper flush toward lower support levels. I said the same yesterday, too.

The combination of technical resistance, weak spot demand, semiconductor sector anxiety, and escalating energy prices has forced a neutral range consolidation, proving that even record-breaking on-chain utility cannot completely shield digital assets from macro volatility.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoins-record-on-chain-activity-is-not-the-price-guarantee-you-think-it-is-20260708/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why Bitcoin’s 1.23% gain means nothing without a break above US$65,000

Why Bitcoin’s 1.23% gain means nothing without a break above US$65,000

Bitcoin recorded a 1.23 per cent gain, settling at US$63,722.90 over the last 24 hours. This price action slightly outperformed the broader digital asset market, which advanced by 1.07 per cent during the same timeframe. The upward movement stems from a macro-driven shift in sentiment, as the leading cryptocurrency closely mirrored the beta of the broader financial landscape.

Over a trailing 30-day period, Bitcoin maintains a strong 57 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 index. This relationship underscores that the digital asset currently behaves as a rates-sensitive vehicle, moving in close tandem with traditional equities rather than responding to isolated, crypto-specific developments.

The primary catalyst behind this upward trajectory originates in the macroeconomic landscape. Investors have adjusted their expectations regarding future Federal Reserve monetary policy, spurred by softer labour data and comments from financial commentators regarding diminished inflation risks.

When looking at the broader picture, the entire crypto market capitalisation climbed in lockstep with Bitcoin, confirming that systemic macro factors are lifting risk assets rather than an isolated cryptocurrency catalyst. This shift in sentiment has temporarily quieted hawkish interest-rate expectations, creating a window in which global capital feels comfortable stepping back into speculative positions. The incoming macroeconomic landscape will face its first major reality check when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its June meeting on July 8.

Beyond macro tailwinds, supportive positioning within the derivatives market provided a constructive backdrop for the daily advance. Forced selling pressure eased during the day, as evidenced by a significant 69.37 per cent decline in 24-hour liquidations, which fell to US$18.68M. This sharp reduction in forced closures suggests that the immediate market structure is not burdened by excessive, unstable leverage.

Concurrently, options data from the Deribit exchange points to a distinctly bullish tilt among market participants. Call options currently outnumber put options ahead of the July 8 expiration date, suggesting that speculative traders are allocating capital to the expectation of an upward breakout rather than hedging against a downside collapse.

Despite these positive signals, the near-term technical outlook indicates that the underlying market structure remains fragile. The crypto market sentiment indicator sits at 29, placing investors’ general emotional state firmly in fear territory. For the current bounce to become a verified trend reversal, Bitcoin needs to clear and hold several critical technical hurdles.

The 50-day simple moving average currently sits near US$62,465, while the Fibonacci 38.2 per cent retracement level rests at US$63,619. If the price can firmly secure the US$62,000 support level, it will position buyers to challenge the major resistance cluster located around US$65,000.

A successful breakout above that US$65,000 threshold would open the door to a broader test of the 100-day moving average, which currently hovers near US$69,500. Conversely, failing to sustain the current momentum carries severe downside risks.

A breakdown below the immediate support floor at US$62,000 would likely trigger a rapid retreat toward the psychological support line at US$60,000. The ultimate direction depends heavily on how market participants digest the July 8 FOMC minutes, which stand as the pivotal regulatory and economic milestone for the week.

The broader international markets are navigating a post-holiday reopening that is heavily influenced by cooling inflation cues. Wall Street futures are holding steady after experiencing choppy conditions at the end of last week. The domestic equity market is undergoing a visible technology rotation, with semiconductor shares facing selling pressure amid emerging overbuild concerns.

Meanwhile, traditional industrial indices remain resilient. Across the Atlantic, European markets achieved notable milestones. Broad-based buying pressure pushed the STOXX Europe 600 index up by 0.5 per cent, while the German DAX index climbed to a fresh all-time high.

The Asia-Pacific region started the trading week with general optimism. Shares edged higher across most major regional indices, led by a remarkable rally in South Korea, where the KOSPI surged over five per cent on heavy gains among major exchange-traded funds. Japanese and Chinese equity markets also posted gains, with both the Nikkei and the Hang Seng strengthening as regional investors reacted to shifting global rate expectations.

In the commodities sector, gold prices maintained their upward trajectory, trading near US$4,200 per ounce, while crude oil futures recorded modest declines following recent OPEC+ output adjustments and a perceived easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

From an analytical perspective, this collective market action reflects a highly interconnected financial ecosystem where the boundaries between digital and traditional assets continue to blur. The 57 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 proves that institutional capital treats Bitcoin as a high-beta component of a global risk portfolio. When global macro indicators hint that central banks might pause or reverse aggressive rate hikes, liquidity naturally flows down the risk curve.

The massive reduction in daily liquidations to US$18.68M is a healthy sign of deleveraging, but the persistent fear reading of 29 in the sentiment index serves as a reminder that retail conviction remains low. The market is leaning long via options, yet this positioning is speculative and highly sensitive to unexpected hawkish surprises in the forthcoming economic data releases.

As the trading week progresses, the global economic calendar will dictate whether this cautiously bullish environment can persist. Aside from the high-stakes release of the Federal Reserve minutes on July 8, international investors are closely tracking incoming indicators, including the US ISM Services PMI and the latest JOLTS job openings data.

If these reports reinforce the narrative of a cooling economy without flashing signs of a deeper recession, risk assets will likely find the fuel necessary to challenge upper resistance clusters. An unexpected surge in inflation indicators or hotter labour data could quickly unravel the current rate-sensitive rally across both traditional and digital exchanges.

Ultimately, the short-term path for Bitcoin remains trapped within a defined range bounded by US$62,000 on the bottom and US$65,000 on the top. The asset has successfully outpaced the broader market’s 1.07 per cent gain with its own 1.23 per cent move, but this outperformance occurs within a larger, macro-dominated framework.

Until the market convincingly reclaims its longer-term moving averages, this price action is best viewed as a macro-driven relief bounce. Investors are keeping their focus entirely on July 8, awaiting the definitive economic signals that will either validate the current bullish options bias or send prices back down to test psychological support levels.

 

Source:

https://e27.co/why-bitcoins-1-23-gain-means-nothing-without-a-break-above-us65000-20260706/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The Independence Day crypto puzzle: Up or down?

The Independence Day crypto puzzle: Up or down?

When you look at the digital asset market, it has climbed 2.47 per cent to reach a total capitalisation of US$2.13 trillion in 24 hours. You might mistake this sudden upward movement for a fundamental shift in blockchain utility. I want to say this again: this is a classic macroeconomic relief rally.

Weak United States employment figures reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. This shift prompted traders to rotate capital into risk assets. The current market dynamics reflect shifting interest-rate expectations rather than any intrinsic evolution in decentralised network technologies. We see speculative capital chasing yields in a traditional financial system struggling with persistent inflation and uncertain monetary policy.

The primary catalyst for this rotation stems directly from disappointing economic data from the United States. The government reported that June payrolls grew by a mere 57,000 jobs. This figure represents 50 per cent of the projected 113,000. Authorities also revised the prior months downward. This weak data, combined with dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh about easing inflation risks, forced institutional traders to rapidly reprice their rate-hike expectations.

Consequently, capital flooded into digital assets and other alternative risk vehicles. This macroeconomic shift also explains the striking 86 per cent correlation we currently observe between Bitcoin and gold. Gold recently surged back above US$4,100. Investors clearly view both assets as inflation hedges against a weakening fiat system. The United States dollar subsequently slid against every major developed market currency. The dollar experienced a sharp bounce against the yen as global markets pared bets on near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Traditional equity markets experienced severe fragmentation during this same period. This fragmentation highlights the broader risk rotation. Technology indices took a hit while defensive sectors absorbed fleeing capital. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.6 per cent, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 5.4 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the negative trend and rose 1.1 per cent to claim a new record high.

The technology sector sell-off drove the SOXX index down 11.6 per cent over just two consecutive sessions. Major chipmakers led this decline. Applied Materials dropped 7.3 per cent. Micron fell 5.4 per cent. Intel sank 5.2 per cent. Investors clearly abandoned overvalued technology trades in favour of safety. Defensive sectors, including healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, and materials, all logged notable gains exceeding 2 per cent. This equity market behaviour perfectly mirrors the crypto relief rally. Both markets react identically to shifting Federal Reserve policy probabilities.

Treasury yields retreated following the employment miss. This retreat illustrates the repricing of interest rates. The two-year yield dropped four basis points to settle at 4.13 per cent. The 10-year finished slightly higher at 4.447 per cent. These bond market movements directly influence the daily liquidity available for speculative assets like cryptocurrency. When bond yields fall, the opportunity cost of holding yield-free assets decreases.

This decrease encourages capital to flow back into high-beta investments. This liquidity dynamic explains why the digital asset market reacted so violently to the jobs report. The combination of sliding treasury yields, a weakening dollar, and dovish central bank rhetoric creates a perfect storm for speculative digital assets. The underlying fundamental drivers stay constant during these macroeconomic shifts.

Within the digital asset ecosystem, capital rapidly flowed into high-beta sectors. This flow created a broad rally beyond the initial macroeconomic spark. The Ethereum ecosystem emerged as the top-performing narrative. It surged 16.7 per cent and contributed significantly to the overall market gains. Social sentiment platforms highlighted a generational opportunity for the asset. News outlets extensively covered its 2026 roadmap, focusing heavily on privacy and scaling upgrades. This intense buying pressure demonstrates how quickly liquidity rotates into existing layer-1 networks when macroeconomic conditions improve.

We must also acknowledge the deeply speculative nature of this liquidity injection. Tokens with minimal fundamental utility experienced explosive rallies from massive volume. These extreme price movements underscore the gambling nature of speculative financial activities. Participants actively chase outsized returns in deeply oversold altcoins.

The market faces immediate and critical resistance at the US$2.15 trillion pivot point. This level aligns with the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. A daily close above this threshold could open the door to the US$2.18 trillion to US$2.21 trillion resistance range. Fragility defines the current relief rally.

A failure to hold the US$2.04 trillion to US$2.09 trillion support zone risks a swift retest of the yearly low at US$2.04 trillion. The most crucial near-term trigger for sustaining this upward momentum lies in the release of United States spot Bitcoin ETF flow data. Continued institutional outflows will undoubtedly cap any meaningful upside potential. We need to see these ETF flows turn positive to provide the continuous demand required to challenge higher resistance levels.

Global markets outside the United States present a similarly complex picture as investors digest the shifting macroeconomic landscape. Asian indices experienced mixed performance, featuring a distinct shift away from overvalued artificial intelligence-related trades. Regional investors now await further signals on United States rates and energy output from the upcoming OPEC meeting.

The Independence Day holiday closes United States markets. This closure reduces liquidity and exacerbates price volatility in both traditional and digital asset markets. This temporary reduction in daily trading volume means that current price levels might not reflect true market consensus. We must approach the week surrounding the holiday with extreme caution. Thin order books can lead to exaggerated price swings in either direction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-independence-day-crypto-puzzle-up-or-down-20260703/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j