Global risk sentiment demonstrated resilience on Thursday, September 18, following the Federal Reserve’s anticipated 25 basis point reduction in its benchmark interest rate during the FOMC meeting that concluded the previous day. The decision passed with an 11-1 vote, a move that aligned with market expectations amid signs of a softening labour market in the US. Investors absorbed the news without much disruption, as the central bank navigated a delicate balance between supporting economic growth and guarding against persistent inflation pressures.

This adjustment brought the federal funds rate target range down to 4.00 per cent to 4.25 per cent, marking the first cut in the current easing cycle. The lone dissenter, Stephen Miran, whom President Donald Trump recently appointed to the Federal Reserve Board, pushed for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction instead. Miran’s position reflected a bolder approach to monetary policy, one that prioritised quicker stimulus to bolster employment and consumer spending in the face of recent job market weaknesses, such as the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2 per cent in August data released earlier in the month. His vote highlighted internal divisions within the Fed, particularly as Trump’s influence shapes the board’s composition with appointees who favour looser policy to align with the administration’s pro-growth agenda.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the media in a press conference after the announcement, and his remarks carried a subtly hawkish undertone that tempered immediate enthusiasm for further easing. Powell emphasised the economy’s underlying strength, pointing to robust consumer spending and a solid corporate sector as reasons to proceed cautiously with rate adjustments. He avoided committing to a rapid series of cuts, instead stressing the need for data-dependent decisions amid uncertainties like potential trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions. This stance contrasted with more dovish expectations from some analysts who anticipated a clearer path toward sub-3 per cent rates by mid-2026. The Fed’s updated economic projections reinforced this measured approach, forecasting two additional quarter-point cuts by the end of 2025 and just one more in 2026, a trajectory that fell short of the market’s hopes for deeper relief.

Participants in the Summary of Economic Projections median outlook saw the federal funds rate ending 2025 at 3.875 per cent, with inflation projected to hover around 2.5 per cent, slightly above the central bank’s long-term target. In my view, Powell’s comments serve as a prudent reminder that the Fed prioritises stability over knee-jerk reactions, even if it disappoints those betting on aggressive easing to fuel asset rallies. This hawkish lean could cap upside in equities and commodities in the near term, but it also prevents the kind of overheated markets that led to past bubbles.

Wall Street wrapped up trading on Wednesday, September 17, with a mixed performance that reflected the nuanced Fed outcome. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.57 per cent, buoyed by gains in cyclical sectors like industrials and financials that stand to benefit from lower borrowing costs. In contrast, the S&P 500 dipped 0.10 per cent, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.33 per cent, dragged down by technology stocks sensitive to interest rate shifts.

Big tech names such as Apple and Nvidia posted modest declines, as investors rotated out of high-valuation growth plays toward value-oriented sectors. This rotation underscores a broader market dynamic where the Fed’s tempered guidance prompted a reassessment of risk premiums, with the VIX volatility index easing slightly to 15.2, indicating subdued fear levels. Overall, the session’s close suggested that while the rate cut provided a tailwind, Powell’s hawkish signals introduced caution, preventing a broad rally.

US Treasury yields moved higher on Wednesday, signalling that bond investors viewed the Fed’s path as less accommodative than hoped. The 10-year Treasury yield rose four basis points to settle at 4.07 per cent, while the two-year yield also increased by four basis points to 3.54 per cent. This uptick flattened the yield curve slightly, with the spread between the 10-year and two-year notes narrowing to 0.53 percentage points, a level that hints at lingering concerns over future growth without aggressive policy support. Higher yields typically pressure equities by raising the cost of capital, but they also attract foreign inflows to US debt, bolstering the dollar. In this context, the modest rise appears justified, as it aligns with the Fed’s projection of slower rate convergence to neutral levels.

The US dollar index advanced 0.25 per cent to 96.87, gaining ground against a basket of major currencies as the Fed’s decision reinforced the relative strength of the American economy. The dollar’s uptick came despite the rate cut, driven by expectations of shallower easing compared to peers like the European Central Bank, which has signalled more cuts ahead. This resilience in the greenback could weigh on exporters and emerging markets, but it also curbs imported inflation, giving the Fed more room to manoeuvre.

Gold prices pulled back 0.2 per cent to US$3,681.39 per ounce after touching a record high earlier in the session, as the dollar’s strength and higher yields diminished the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Despite the retreat, gold has surged over 40 per cent year-to-date, fueled by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The Fed cut typically supports non-yielding assets like gold by improving liquidity, but Powell’s cautious tone introduced profit-taking. I see gold’s pullback as temporary, with its long-term bullish case intact given ongoing uncertainties around elections and trade policies.

Asian equities showed strength on Wednesday, rallying on anticipation of the Fed’s rate cut, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index leading the charge by jumping 1.78 per cent to its highest level since November 2021. This surge is tied directly to Chief Executive John Lee’s policy address, where he outlined ambitious initiatives to invigorate the economy. Lee pledged enhanced support for artificial intelligence development through tax incentives and R&D funding, alongside measures to stabilise the property sector via relaxed stamp duties and increased land supply targets for the next decade. He also accelerated plans for the Northern Metropolis project, aiming to create a tech hub with improved infrastructure and talent attraction programs. These announcements addressed key pain points like high housing costs and sluggish innovation, boosting investor confidence in Hong Kong’s post-pandemic recovery. Mainland Chinese stocks followed suit, with the CSI 300 up 1.2 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.8 per cent on export optimism.

In early trading on September 18, Asian markets traded mixed, with some profit-taking after the prior day’s gains. Tokyo’s Nikkei edged up 0.6 per cent to a fresh record, driven by real estate and tech advances, while Shanghai Composite held flat amid caution over US-China trade rhetoric. Hong Kong’s HSI dipped 0.3 per cent initially, consolidating after the policy boost. US equity index futures pointed to a higher open, with S&P 500 contracts up 0.4 per cent and Nasdaq futures rising 0.5 per cent, signalling renewed risk appetite as traders digested the Fed’s move.

The cryptocurrency market climbed 0.97 per cent over the last 24 hours, extending a seven-day uptrend of 3.56 per cent, as institutional interest and macroeconomic tailwinds propelled digital assets higher. Bitcoin hovered around US$96,000, while Ethereum pushed toward US$4,000, reflecting a risk-on rotation that favoured altcoins amid Fed rate cut optimism. Surging inflows into exchange-traded funds played a pivotal role, with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs absorbing US$642 million and US$405 million, respectively, this week, pushing combined holdings to substantial levels. The SEC’s approval of Grayscale’s multi-asset ETF further amplified sentiment, channelling regulated capital into the space and creating sustained demand that offsets typical sell pressures from miners or long-term holders.

This institutional demand via ETFs carries profound bullish implications for crypto’s maturation. With Bitcoin ETF assets under management reaching US$152 billion and Ethereum’s at US$24.23 billion, these vehicles democratize access for traditional investors wary of direct wallet management. The week’s US$1.04 billion in combined inflows underscores a structural shift, where pensions and endowments allocate to crypto as a portfolio diversifier. Looking ahead, the September 17 FOMC meeting’s outcome could spark even more inflows if markets interpret the cuts as liquidity-enhancing. In my opinion, this trend solidifies crypto’s place in mainstream finance, reducing volatility over time and attracting trillions in eventual capital, though regulators must balance innovation with consumer protections to avoid setbacks.

Fed rate cut speculation added fuel to the crypto rally, with markets pricing a 96.4 per cent probability of the 25 basis point move via tools like Goldman Sachs’ models and the CME FedWatch. Traders anticipate a US$1.9 trillion liquidity injection across the system, correlating strongly with crypto’s performance, as evidenced by the 0.78 correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq-100 over the past day. Lower rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding high-volatility assets like Bitcoin, while a softer dollar historically boosts crypto prices by making them cheaper for international buyers. Past cycles show Bitcoin gaining an average of 25 per cent in the month following initial Fed cuts, a pattern that aligns with current dynamics. However, the hawkish elements in Powell’s speech introduce risks; if future meetings signal pauses, crypto could face sharp corrections. I view this as a net positive for the sector, as easier money encourages speculative flows, but investors should brace for amplified swings tied to macro news.

The acceleration of altcoin season presents a mixed bag, with the Altcoin Season Index climbing to 72, up 10.77 per cent weekly, indicating alts outperforming Bitcoin. Ethereum led with a 5.63 per cent gain, Solana surged 57 per cent on DeFi momentum, and BNB rose 10.8 per cent amid exchange ecosystem growth. Decentralised exchange volumes jumped 25.11 per cent, as capital rotated away from Bitcoin, whose dominance slipped to 56.91 per cent. This shift signals broadening market participation, with low-cap tokens drawing retail frenzy.

The rally’s fragility shines through in its reliance on liquidity; a hawkish Fed pivot or regulatory crackdown could reverse gains swiftly, especially for speculative alts lacking fundamentals. Derivatives activity amplified the move, with perpetuals volume hitting US$434.48 trillion, up 8.61 per cent, and funding rates spiking 91.68 per cent, pointing to leveraged exuberance. From my perspective, altseason fosters innovation in areas like AI-blockchain integrations and layer-2 scaling, but it also breeds excess. Prudent investors should focus on established alts with real utility, like Ethereum’s staking yields or Solana’s speed, rather than chasing memes, to navigate the volatility inherent in this phase.

In wrapping up this market panorama, global assets exhibit cautious optimism post-Fed, with equities poised for gains, commodities consolidating, and crypto thriving on institutional bets. The interplay of central bank actions and policy initiatives, from Washington’s rate path to Hong Kong’s reforms, shapes a landscape ripe for opportunity yet laced with uncertainties.

As a journalist tracking these flows, I remain bullish on risk assets over the longer horizon, convinced that easing cycles historically reward patient capital, but I urge vigilance against overextension in the face of evolving Fed rhetoric and geopolitical crosswinds. This week’s developments affirm that while the Fed’s hand guides the market, diverse catalysts like ETF momentum and regional policies add layers of complexity to the narrative.

Source: https://e27.co/liquidity-dreams-meet-reality-how-the-feds-25-basis-point-cut-is-and-isnt-changing-everything-20250918/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com