Tag Archives: policy

Trump’s policy effect: From semiconductors to Bitcoin, how government moves are shaping markets

Trump’s policy effect: From semiconductors to Bitcoin, how government moves are shaping markets

News of US President Donald Trump imposing a 100 per cent levy on semiconductor imports, paired with exemptions for companies relocating production to the US, has sparked a wave of optimism among investors. This development has lifted global risk sentiment and fuelled a rally in US stock markets, especially in big tech.

At the same time, the Bank of England’s anticipated interest rate cut, mixed signals from US Treasuries, a weakening US dollar, and movements in commodities like gold and Brent crude paint a complex picture. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has caught attention with a modest rebound, bolstered by surging ETF inflows, technical support, and corporate accumulation.

Let’s unpack these interconnected events and explore what they mean for the world economy and financial markets.

Trump’s semiconductor levy: A game-changer for US markets

The announcement of a 100 per cent levy on semiconductor imports stands out as a pivotal move. Semiconductors are the backbone of modern technology, powering everything from smartphones to cars to defence systems. By slapping such a steep tariff on imports while offering exemptions to companies that shift production back to the US, Trump aims to rewire global supply chains in America’s favour.

The immediate market reaction has been telling. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7 per cent, the Dow Jones edged up 0.2 per cent, and the Nasdaq surged 1.2 per cent, with big tech stocks leading the charge. Investors clearly see this as a boon for US-based firms, especially those in the technology sector that rely heavily on these critical components.

This policy could spark a renaissance in US manufacturing. Companies that move production stateside might tap into tax breaks, create jobs, and bolster national security by reducing dependence on foreign suppliers. For tech giants, the exemptions could translate into lower costs and a competitive edge, explaining the Nasdaq’s outsized gains.

Yet, the picture isn’t all rosy. The levy could jolt global supply chains, raising costs for companies unable to relocate quickly. Many firms operate intricate networks spanning multiple countries, and uprooting those operations might prove costly or impractical. Consumers could feel the pinch too, as higher production costs trickle down to product prices.

On the geopolitical front, this move might ruffle feathers. Major semiconductor exporters like Taiwan, South Korea, and China could view the levy as a shot across the bow, potentially sparking retaliatory tariffs or trade disputes. The long-term success of this policy hinges on execution, whether companies can realistically shift production without derailing efficiency or profitability. For now, though, the market’s bullish response signals confidence in the short-term upside, even if uncertainties loom on the horizon.

Bank of England’s Rate Cut: Stimulus with Strings Attached

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England has investors on edge as it prepares to announce its policy decision on Thursday. Analysts widely expect a 25-basis-point cut, bringing the key interest rate to 4.00 per cent. This move aims to juice up the UK economy by making borrowing cheaper, encouraging businesses to invest and households to spend. After a period of tighter policy to tame inflation, this shift suggests the central bank sees room to prioritise growth.

What does this mean for the UK? Lower rates could lift demand, supporting sectors like housing and retail. Exporters might also catch a break if the British pound weakens, making UK goods more attractive overseas. However, a depreciating pound could stoke inflation by driving up import costs, a risk the Bank of England will need to monitor closely.

The decision’s ripple effects will depend on the central bank’s messaging. If it hints at more cuts ahead, markets might cheer, but any sign of hesitation could dampen the mood. For now, anticipation of this stimulus has added a layer of optimism to the global risk rally.

US treasuries and the dollar: Mixed signals abound

Back in the US, Treasury yields are sending mixed messages. On Wednesday, the 2-year yield dipped 1.1 basis points to 3.714 per cent, while the 10-year yield ticked up 1.6 basis points to 4.226 per cent. This split suggests investors expect short-term rates to stay low, perhaps reflecting faith in a dovish Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the uptick in longer-term yields points to worries about inflation or stronger growth down the road. It’s a tug-of-war between near-term caution and longer-term bets.

The US Dollar Index, or DXY, underscores this uncertainty. It dropped for a fourth straight day, landing at 98.18. Recent disappointing US economic data, like sluggish job growth or softer consumer spending, might be fueling speculation that the Fed will ease policy further. A weaker dollar boosts US exporters and multinational firms by making their goods cheaper abroad and inflating overseas earnings. Yet, it also reflects a broader shift in confidence, with investors looking beyond the dollar for returns as global risk appetite picks up.

Commodities and Asian markets: Riding the wave

Commodities offer another lens on market dynamics. Gold slipped 0.3 per cent to US$3,369 per ounce, a modest pullback after a four-day winning streak. Profit-taking likely drove the dip, but gold’s lofty price underscores its role as a haven amid uncertainty. Brent crude, meanwhile, fell 1.1 per cent to US$66.89 per barrel, nudged lower by news of a potential Trump-Putin meeting. If that summit eases geopolitical tensions over energy sanctions or conflict zones, oil’s risk premium could shrink further.

Asian stock markets, on the other hand, caught the upbeat vibe. They rallied Wednesday and opened higher Thursday, buoyed by hopes of Fed rate cuts. Cheaper borrowing in the US often floods global markets with liquidity, lifting risk assets like stocks. US equity futures echoed this sentiment, hinting at a strong open. The interplay of US policy shifts and Asian market gains highlights how interconnected the financial world has become.

Bitcoin’s bounce: Institutional faith and technical grit

Then there’s Bitcoin, which rose 0.85 per cent in the past 24 hours to US$114,592.79, shaking off a 3.23 per cent weekly slide. Three forces are at play here. First, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw US$91.52 million in net inflows on August 6, snapping a five-day outflow streak. BlackRock’s US$41.9 million and Bitwise’s US$26.35 million led the charge, pushing total ETF assets to US$146.73 billion. This flood of institutional money signals growing trust in Bitcoin’s stability, with heavyweights like BlackRock holding roughly 625,000 BTC. If inflows persist, they could anchor prices above US$115,000.

Second, Bitcoin’s technicals tell a story of resilience. It held firm at the US$112,000 support level, buoyed by the 50-day simple moving average at US$112,860 and a key Fibonacci level at US$113,455. Traders are buying dips, pushing it toward resistance at US$115,500. The RSI sits at 49.15, showing neutral momentum, but a bearish MACD hints at caution. A break above US$115,500 could eye US$117,500, while a slip below US$113,500 might test US$110,800.

Third, corporate moves are turning heads. Japan’s Metaplanet snapped up 463 BTC for US$53.7 million at US$115,895 per coin, while Tether unveiled plans to become the world’s top Bitcoin miner by 2025, aiming for 80,000 BTC. These steps shrink exchange supply and cement Bitcoin’s “digital gold” allure. Tether’s mining push, in particular, could tighten long-term supply, nudging prices higher if demand holds.

For now, the data backs a cautiously optimistic view: markets are climbing, liquidity is flowing, and innovation is humming. The threads tying it all together feel fragile, and keeping a sharp eye on the numbers will be key to navigating what’s next.

As markets climb on policy tailwinds, keeping a sharp eye on the numbers will be crucial to seizing opportunities and sidestepping pitfalls.

 

Source: https://e27.co/trumps-policy-effect-from-semiconductors-to-bitcoin-how-government-moves-are-shaping-markets-20250807/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Stocks, treasuries, gold, oil, and Bitcoin in motion: The jobs and policy effect

Stocks, treasuries, gold, oil, and Bitcoin in motion: The jobs and policy effect

At the heart of this storm is the latest US employment report, which has once again defied expectations, alongside the final approval of President Trump’s US$3.4 trillion tax and spending package. These events have sent ripples across asset classes, influencing everything from stock indices and Treasury yields to the US dollar, gold, oil, and even Bitcoin.

I want to share my perspective on their implications and interconnections, while grounding the discussion in the facts and data provided. My aim is to paint a clear picture of the current market landscape, delving into both the opportunities and risks that lie ahead.

The US employment report: Strength with subtle cracks

The US employment report for June has been a focal point for markets, delivering a headline number that suggests continued economic vigour. Nonfarm payrolls, which track the number of jobs added or lost outside the agricultural sector, rose by 147,000, well above the consensus estimate of 106,000. This marks the fourth consecutive month that the labour market has surprised to the upside, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient US economy.

A strong payroll figure typically signals that businesses are confident enough to expand their workforce, a sign of robust demand and economic health. Paired with this, the unemployment rate, a measure of the percentage of the labour force actively seeking work, eased unexpectedly to 4.1 per cent, better than the anticipated 4.3 per cent. This drop suggests a tightening labor market, which could pave the way for wage growth and bolster consumer spending, both critical drivers of economic activity.

However, the report isn’t without its nuances. Beneath these rosy headlines lies a softening in private activity growth, a detail that tempers the optimism. This softening could indicate that, while headline job creation remains strong, specific sectors —perhaps those tied to private investment or discretionary spending —are losing momentum.

From my perspective, this duality in the data is a reminder that economic strength isn’t uniform. The labor market’s resilience is encouraging, but the cracks in private activity suggest that policymakers and investors should remain vigilant. If this softening persists, it could signal broader challenges ahead, especially as the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves on interest rates.

Broader economic indicators: Signs of resilience

Beyond the employment report, other economic indicators suggest that the economy is holding its ground. Initial jobless claims, which count new filings for unemployment benefits, declined in the latest data, as did continuing claims, which track those receiving ongoing support. These reductions imply that job losses are slowing and that unemployed workers are finding new roles more quickly, both positive signs for labor market stability.

Additionally, the ISM Services index, a key gauge of activity in the services sector (which dominates the US economy), returned to expansion territory. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and this rebound suggests that the services sector is shrugging off any prior weakness, contributing to overall economic momentum.

These indicators bolster the case for cautious optimism. The decline in jobless claims aligns with the strong payrolls data, while the ISM Services rebound hints at broad-based resilience. However, I’d caution that these metrics are snapshots, backward-looking by nature, and don’t fully account for future uncertainties, such as the impact of new fiscal policies or global headwinds.

Still, for now, they reinforce the narrative of a US economy that’s weathering challenges better than many had feared.

President Trump’s tax and spending package: A double-edged sword

Shifting to the political arena, President Trump’s US$3.4 trillion tax and spending package has cleared a significant hurdle, passing the House with a razor-thin 218-214 vote. This landmark legislation blends tax cuts with significant spending increases, aiming to juice economic growth while addressing infrastructure and social priorities.

The tax reductions could put more money in the pockets of consumers and businesses, potentially spurring spending and investment. At the same time, the spending component promises to inject capital into the economy, supporting jobs and public projects.

The package’s passage is a double-edged sword. It’s a win for growth-oriented policies, likely contributing to the upbeat mood in equity markets. On the other hand, its hefty price tag raises red flags about the federal deficit, which is already substantial. Critics argue that this could fuel inflation in the long run, forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy more aggressively.

The narrow vote margin underscores the contentious nature of this move—it’s a bold bet on growth, but one that hinges on execution and favorable economic conditions aligning. If successful, it could amplify the current economic momentum; if not, it risks exacerbating fiscal imbalances at a time when resilience is already being tested.

Stock markets: Riding the wave of optimism

The stock market has greeted these developments with open arms. The S&P 500 rose by 0.83 per cent, the NASDAQ climbed 0.99 per cent, and the Dow Jones gained 0.81 per cent. These gains reflect a wave of optimism, likely fuelled by the strong jobs data and the fiscal stimulus promised by Trump’s package.

Investors seem to be betting on higher corporate earnings and consumer demand, both of which could flow from these catalysts. However, early trading signals from Asian equity indices and US futures suggest a potential pullback, hinting at profit-taking or lingering doubts about the sustainability of the rally.

The rally is justified given the data, but it comes with risks. Stocks are sensitive to interest rate expectations, and as we’ll see with Treasury yields, the market is pricing in a shift. If rates rise too quickly, or if global risk sentiment sours, these gains could unwind. For now, though, the upward movement reflects a market eager to embrace good news—a classic case of sentiment driving prices, at least in the short term.

Treasury yields: The bear-flattening signal

The US Treasury yield curve offers a more sobering perspective, undergoing a sharp bear flattening. This phenomenon occurs when short-term yields rise faster than long-term ones, narrowing the gap between them. The two-year Treasury yield jumped 9.5 basis points to 3.880 per cent, while the 10-year yield rose 6.9 basis points to 4.346 per cent.

This shift is tied to the strong jobs report, which has recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors now anticipate a tighter policy stance to curb potential inflation, pushing short-term yields higher as bond prices fall.

A flatter yield curve can signal mixed messages. Historically, an inverted curve (where short-term yields exceed long-term ones) has foreshadowed recessions, but we’re not there yet. Instead, this bear flattening suggests confidence in near-term growth, hence the rise in yields, but tempered expectations for the longer haul.

I view this as a natural market adjustment to the data. It serves as a reminder that borrowing costs are creeping up, which could eventually weigh on growth-sensitive sectors such as housing or corporate investment.

US dollar and gold: A tale of strength and retreat

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.4 per cent after the jobs report. A stronger dollar often follows robust economic data, as it boosts demand for dollar-denominated assets and signals tighter policy ahead. This strength, however, pressured gold, which slid 0.9 per cent to US$3,326 per ounce. Gold thrives in times of uncertainty or low interest rates, but with yields rising and the dollar strengthening, its appeal as a haven is diminishing.

I view the dollar’s recovery as a logical outcome of the data, though its export-dampening effects could pose challenges. Gold’s decline, meanwhile, doesn’t surprise me. It’s a classic reaction to this environment. That said, if geopolitical risks or inflation fears resurface, gold could regain its lustre quickly.

Brent crude: Balancing supply and demand

Brent crude oil slipped 0.4 per cent to US$69 per barrel, even as OPEC+ prepares to add 411,000 barrels per day in August. This drop likely reflects concerns about demand, possibly tied to global growth uncertainties, outweighing the supply increase for now.

The direction of oil prices will hinge on how demand holds up, especially in key markets like China, and whether OPEC+ adheres to its plan. The modest decline suggests a market in wait-and-see mode, which feels prudent given the mixed signals elsewhere.

Bitcoin: Volatility meets technical headwinds

Bitcoin’s journey has been a rollercoaster, rallying to US$110,500 before hitting resistance at US$110,000. Trading above US$109,000, it’s showing stability, but technical analysis reveals bearish divergences across multiple timeframes—15-minute, one-hour, four-hour, and daily charts.

These divergences, where price rises but momentum indicators like the RSI weaken, suggest a fading bullish momentum and a possible pullback to US$106,000-US$107,500. Despite this, long-term trends remain bullish, buoyed by US$603 million in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading at US$237.13 million.

Bitcoin is cautiously mixed. The ETF inflows signal strong institutional interest, a bullish undercurrent. Yet, the technical warnings can’t be ignored. US$110,000 feels like a psychological ceiling that needs more conviction to break. Traders betting on US$112,000 might be right eventually, but the selling pressure suggests traps in the near term. I’d watch those support levels closely.

Wrapping up

The global financial markets are at a fascinating juncture. The US economy’s resilience, underscored by jobs data and fiscal policy, is driving risk sentiment forward, yet subtle cracks and technical signals urge caution.

Stocks and the dollar are riding high, but yields, gold, oil, and Bitcoin reflect a more complex reality. In my view, the interplay of these factors points to opportunity tempered by vigilance. Growth is here, but its sustainability depends on how these pieces evolve. For investors, staying informed and nimble will be key in navigating what’s next.

 

Source: https://e27.co/stocks-treasuries-gold-oil-and-bitcoin-in-motion-the-jobs-and-policy-effect-20250704/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Geopolitics, Fed policy, and Bitcoin: The trio shaping today’s markets

Geopolitics, Fed policy, and Bitcoin: The trio shaping today’s markets

The global risk sentiment has found a foothold of stability, buoyed by a calming of geopolitical tensions and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates later this year. This stability has rippled across asset classes, lifting US stock markets, tempering volatility, and even sparking renewed interest in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

As a journalist tasked with unpacking this intricate scenario, I’ll explore how these factors interplay, what they mean for investors, and how upcoming data might sway the trajectory of markets in the near future.

The stabilisation of global risk sentiment

At the heart of the current market narrative is a perceptible shift in global risk sentiment. After months marked by uncertainty, driven in part by tariff disputes and geopolitical friction, the world seems to be exhaling, at least for now. This easing of tensions has allowed investors to step back from the edge of panic and refocus on growth opportunities. Meanwhile, the prospect of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has injected a dose of optimism into the equation.

Lower interest rates typically signal cheaper borrowing costs, which can stimulate economic activity and make riskier assets, such as stocks, more appealing compared to the declining yields of bonds. Together, these forces have created a stabilising effect, one that’s visible in the performance of major financial indices and the behaviour of volatility gauges.

On Thursday, US stock markets closed on a high note, reflecting this newfound confidence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.94 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.80 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.97 per cent. These gains weren’t a one-day fluke.

Asian equities opened higher on Friday, and US equity index futures hinted at a continuation of the upward trend when Wall Street reopened. This broad-based rally suggests that investors are embracing the narrative of reduced geopolitical risk and the promise of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Fed.

Perhaps the most telling indicator of this shift is the VIX, often dubbed the market’s “fear gauge.” After spiking to 52 in April amid tariff-fueled turmoil, a level that signaled heightened investor anxiety, the VIX has since retreated dramatically, sliding to 16.59. This decline signals a significant unwinding of fear, a return to a more measured risk appetite.

Historically, a VIX below 20 is associated with calmer markets, where investors are less preoccupied with hedging against sudden downturns and more inclined to pursue growth-oriented investments. The drop from 52 to 16.59 isn’t just a number. It’s a story of markets finding their footing after a stormy period.

Geopolitical concerns: From storm to calm

Geopolitical risks have long been a wild card in the financial world. Trade wars, political upheavals, and international conflicts can send shockwaves through markets, prompting sell-offs and spikes in volatility as investors scramble to assess the fallout.

April’s tariff disputes, for instance, were a textbook example of how quickly sentiment can sour when governments flex their economic muscle. The resulting uncertainty drove the VIX to its lofty peak, as markets braced for potential disruptions to global trade and economic growth.

But the past few weeks have painted a different picture. While the specifics of what’s driving this geopolitical détente aren’t fully detailed in the data, perhaps a cooling of trade rhetoric or diplomatic progress behind the scenes is at play; the effects are undeniable. Investors are no longer pricing in the same level of chaos, and that’s allowed risk assets to breathe.

It’s a reminder that markets don’t need perfect clarity to rally; they need the absence of immediate threats. This calm could be fleeting. Geopolitical risks are notoriously unpredictable, and a single headline could reignite volatility. For now, though, the respite is a welcome tailwind for risk sentiment.

Federal Reserve rate cuts: A beacon of hope

If geopolitical calm is the foundation, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are the scaffolding propping up this stable sentiment. The Fed’s monetary policy is a linchpin for global markets, influencing everything from borrowing costs to currency values. When the Fed signals a dovish turn, lowering rates to spur growth, it’s like a green light for investors to take on more risk. That’s precisely what’s happening now, as markets increasingly price in rate cuts later this year.

This anticipation isn’t baseless speculation; it’s reflected in the bond market. On Thursday, US Treasury yields dipped, with the 10-year yield falling five basis points to 4.24 per cent and the two-year yield dropping six basis points to 3.71 per cent. Lower yields suggest that investors expect the Fed to ease policy, reducing the return on safe-haven assets like Treasuries and nudging capital toward equities and other growth-oriented investments.

Adding intrigue to the mix are renewed murmurs that President Donald Trump might be mulling a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Such a shake-up could muddy the waters of monetary policy, but so far, the market’s reaction has been subdued, yields fell rather than spiked, indicating that investors are betting on rate cuts over political drama.

The US Dollar Index, meanwhile, slipped 0.54 per centto 97.15, a move that aligns with the narrative of rate cuts. A weaker dollar often boosts risk assets, especially in emerging markets, by easing the burden of dollar-denominated debt and lifting commodity prices.

Gold held steady at US$3,333 per ounce, a sign that investors aren’t rushing to safe havens, while Brent crude edged up 0.07 per cent to US$67.73 per barrel, buoyed perhaps by a slightly brighter demand outlook. These subtle shifts underscore how deeply Fed expectations permeate the financial ecosystem.

The PCE inflation data: A potential pivot point

While the present feels stable, the future hinges on data, specifically, the May reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, due Friday. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE carries outsized weight in shaping policy decisions.

Analysts expect the headline PCE to rise 0.1 per cent month-on-month and 2.3 per cent year-on-year, with the core PCE (excluding volatile food and energy) ticking up 0.1 per cent month-on-month and 2.6 per cent year-on-year. These figures might seem incremental, but in the current environment, they’re anything but trivial.

If inflation surprises to the upside—say, climbing faster than anticipated—it could dampen hopes for rate cuts. A Fed wary of overheating might hold rates steady or even hint at tightening, which would likely dent risk sentiment and pressure equities.

Conversely, if the data indicates that inflation is cooling or holding steady, it strengthens the case for monetary easing, potentially fueling further gains in stocks and other risk assets. The market is leaning toward the latter scenario, given the recent behavior of yields and the dollar, but it’s a tightrope walk. Investors will dissect every decimal point of the PCE report, and their reactions could either cement this stability or unravel it.

Bitcoin’s bullish turn: A microcosm of risk appetite

Beyond traditional markets, the cryptocurrency space provides a fascinating lens on risk sentiment, with Bitcoin (BTC) taking centre stage. On Monday, Bitcoin surged 4.34 per cent to close at US$107,486, forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern that erased two days of bearish price action.

This technical signal, where a strong green candle fully engulfs the prior red candles, suggests a potential reversal, especially since Bitcoin held support above US$105,000 for two consecutive days. It’s a pattern that has caught the eye of traders, hinting at a shift in market structure and bolstering the cryptocurrency’s ongoing recovery.

But is this bullish setup reliable? To dig deeper, I’ve examined Bitcoin’s daily chart since January 2021, focusing on instances of the bullish engulfing pattern that meet specific criteria: the candle must engulf at least the previous two candles, emerge after a corrective phase, and be followed by a clear break of structure that confirms momentum.

The data reveals 19 such cases, with 15 leading to new local highs in subsequent days or weeks, a success rate of roughly 78 per cent. That’s a compelling statistic, suggesting a high likelihood that Bitcoin could continue to rise from here.

Yet, crypto markets are a different beast, driven as much by sentiment and speculation as by technicals. Despite the bullish signal, opinions remain split. Some view Bitcoin’s resilience as a sign of growing institutional adoption, while others warn of regulatory risks or macroeconomic headwinds. The upcoming PCE data could be a wildcard here, too, if inflation spikes and rate-cut odds fade, risk assets like Bitcoin might falter. 

My take: Cautious optimism amid uncertainty

Stepping back, the current stability in global risk sentiment feels like a delicate balance, one I view with cautious optimism. The retreat of geopolitical storm clouds and the Fed’s dovish tilt have created a fertile ground for risk assets, as seen in the stock market’s gains, the VIX’s slide, and Bitcoin’s technical breakout.

The dip in Treasury yields and the dollar’s softening only reinforce this narrative. But stability isn’t the same as certainty, and the PCE data looms as a potential inflection point. A benign report could propel markets higher; a hot one could spark a rethink.

For investors, this is a moment to savor the calm while keeping an eye on the horizon. The interplay of geopolitics, monetary policy, and economic indicators will keep markets dynamic, if not downright unpredictable. As for me, I see a world where opportunity and risk coexist in equal measure, a sentiment that’s stable for now, but never static.

 

Source: https://e27.co/geopolitics-fed-policy-and-bitcoin-the-trio-shaping-todays-markets-20250627/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j