Tag Archives: rate

Risk-off ripples: Trade fears, rate cuts, and a crypto sell-off collide

Risk-off ripples: Trade fears, rate cuts, and a crypto sell-off collide

A noticeable step back yesterday after President Donald Trump floated the idea of halting trade in cooking oil with China. This comment stirred up new uncertainties in the already fragile ties between the two economic giants, reminding everyone how quickly trade disputes can escalate and ripple through markets. Investors reacted by pulling back from riskier assets, seeking shelter in safer havens.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered some stability with his remarks. He noted that the economic picture looked much the same as it did during the September meeting, and he hinted strongly at another quarter-point cut in interest rates coming up later this month. These words from Powell helped temper some of the anxiety, as markets priced in the likelihood of easier monetary policy to support growth amid these tensions.

US stocks wrapped up Tuesday with mixed results, reflecting the push and pull between trade worries and Fed expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.44 per cent, showing resilience in some blue-chip names, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.16 per cent, and the Nasdaq dropped a steeper 0.76 per cent.

Tech-heavy indexes felt the brunt of the caution, as investors worried about how trade frictions might hit supply chains and corporate earnings. Bond markets told a similar story of caution. Treasury yields declined as people flocked to government debt for safety. The 10-year yield dropped three basis points to 4.02 per cent, and the two-year yield fell five basis points to 3.47 per cent. This movement underscores how quickly sentiment can shift toward defence when geopolitical headlines dominate.

The dollar weakened a bit in response, with the US Dollar Index down 0.22 per cent to 99.04. Gold, on the other hand, gained 0.4 per cent to reach 4126.47 dollars per ounce. This uptick in gold prices makes sense given the dual drivers of an anticipated Fed rate cut and the safe-haven appeal amid trade and geopolitical strains.

Oil markets faced their own pressures. Brent crude settled 1.47 per cent lower at 62.39 dollars per barrel, influenced by the International Energy Agency’s warning about a massive supply glut looming in 2026. That kind of forecast weighs heavily on energy prices, as it signals potential oversupply that could keep lids on any rebounds.

Asian stocks mostly ended lower on Tuesday, mirroring the global unease, but they perked up in early trading today. Optimism around the possible Fed rate cut boosted moods, leading to gains that suggest some recovery in sentiment. US equity futures pointed to a higher open stateside, which could carry over if the positive vibes hold. From my perspective, this back-and-forth highlights the market’s sensitivity to policy signals right now.

Trump’s offhand remark about the cooking oil trade might seem niche, but it taps into broader fears of escalating tariffs or restrictions that could disrupt global supply chains. Powell’s steady hand provides a counterbalance, and I see the Fed’s path as a stabilising force, potentially cushioning against worse outcomes if trade talks sour further. The mixed stock closes remind us that not all sectors benefit equally from lower rates, especially tech, which relies on smooth international flows.

Looking to the cryptocurrency space, the market endured a 1.66 per cent drop over the last 24 hours, building on a 7.57 per cent slide over the week. This downturn stems from a combination of regulatory pressures and a major scam revelation, which together amplified the risk-off mood. Technical signals indicate oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce if sentiment shifts; however, caution remains the order of the day.

Regulatory developments hit hard, with US authorities charging Chen Zhi, the chairman of Cambodia’s Prince Holding Group, in connection with laundering 14 billion dollars through crypto scams, as reported by Nikkei Asia. At the same time, Japan outlined plans to prohibit insider trading in crypto by 2026, also per Nikkei Asia. These moves rattled investors, reinforcing the view that digital assets carry significant oversight risks. Institutions grew wary, and retail traders sold off, fearing broader crackdowns.

In my humble perspective, these regulatory steps mark a maturing phase for crypto, where governments aim to curb abuses that have plagued the sector. The 14 billion dollar scam case stands out as a stark example of how fraud can undermine trust, and Japan’s insider trading ban signals a push toward mainstream financial standards.

While this might sting in the short term, it could build longer-term credibility if implemented thoughtfully. Investors should monitor the evolving details of Japan’s legal changes and any potential spillover from the seizure in the scam probe. Such events often lead to temporary sell-offs but can pave the way for more robust frameworks that attract serious capital.

Derivatives markets showed clear signs of stress, adding to the bearish tone. Total open interest in derivatives decreased 1.73 per cent to 989.73 billion dollars, and average funding rates plummeted 36.3 per cent in just 24 hours. Perpetual contracts volume rose 1.69 per cent to 697.74 trillion dollars, indicating frantic trading amid the panic.

This unwind of leverage came after Bitcoin dipped briefly below 105 thousand dollars, sparking 19 billion dollars in liquidations earlier in the week. The spot-to-perpetual ratio of 0.21 underscores how speculation dominated, making the market vulnerable to sharp corrections.

I think this leverage purge reflects a healthy, if painful, reset. High funding rates often signal overextended positions, and their sharp drop shows traders rushing to exit as prices fall. The surge in perpetual volume points to knee-jerk reactions, where fear drives more activity rather than conviction.

In broader terms, this dynamic exposes crypto’s volatility, amplified by leveraged bets that can turn minor dips into cascades. From an optimistic angle, clearing out excess leverage might set the stage for more sustainable growth, reducing the risk of even larger blowups down the line.

Sentiment metrics captured the prevailing fear. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index slid to 37, squarely in fear territory, down from 42 the day before. This drop illustrates eroding confidence, as participants grapple with the regulatory and market pressures. Technically, the picture looked grim too.

The overall crypto market capitalisation stood at 3.84 trillion dollars, below the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of 3.98 trillion dollars. The seven-day Relative Strength Index hit 28.38, indicating extreme oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram at negative 33.12 billion confirmed ongoing bearish momentum. Bitcoin’s dominance climbed to 58.59 per cent, suggesting a shift toward it as a relatively safe haven within the crypto ecosystem.

From where I stand, these technical breakdowns reveal how algorithms and momentum traders can exacerbate declines. Crossing below key Fibonacci levels often triggers automated selling, and the low RSI screams oversold, which historically precedes rebounds in other markets. But in crypto, with its unique mix of retail enthusiasm and institutional hedging, the MACD’s bearish read might prolong the pain.

The rise in Bitcoin dominance tells me investors are hunkering down in the biggest name, viewing it as less risky than altcoins during turmoil. Overall, this setup feels like a capitulation phase, where fear dominates but could flip if positive catalysts emerge, like clearer Fed actions or easing trade tensions.

 

Source: https://e27.co/risk-off-ripples-trade-fears-rate-cuts-and-a-crypto-sell-off-collide-20251015/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The Fed’s first rate cut: What it means for equities, risk, and crypto

The Fed’s first rate cut: What it means for equities, risk, and crypto

The Federal Reserve has officially initiated its rate cut cycle, a move long anticipated by markets that have already priced in approximately 3.8 cuts over the next 12 months. I forecast two additional reductions on October 29 and December 12.

Historically, the period immediately following the first rate cut has been marked by heightened volatility as markets recalibrate their expectations, reassess risk premiums, and digest the implications of a new monetary regime.

This transitional phase is particularly delicate because it often coincides with divergent signals from economic data, political uncertainty, and evolving investor positioning. All of these factors are present in today’s environment.

Equities and the magnificent seven effect

Equity markets, led by the S&P 500’s impressive 32 per cent rally from its recent lows, reflect a strong recovery narrative driven disproportionately by the so-called Magnificent Seven (Mag7) stocks. These technology and growth-oriented giants continue to post earnings growth roughly four times that of the remaining 493 companies in the index, underscoring their outsized influence on overall market performance.

However, this concentration introduces significant risk. Mag7 valuations now exceed 30 times forward earnings, not yet at their historical peaks but certainly in elevated territory. While historical backtesting suggests that equities generally perform well in the 12 to 24 months following the start of a Fed easing cycle, the current context differs in important ways.

The market’s narrow leadership, combined with stretched valuations, makes indiscriminate exposure to these names increasingly perilous. Chasing performance at this juncture could expose investors to sharp corrections if earnings disappoint or if macro risks materialise. Diversification, not just across sectors but across geographies and asset classes, emerges as a critical defensive and offensive strategy.

Investor positioning and market signals

Investor positioning data reveals that asset managers hold high equity allocations, though not at extreme levels that typically precede major drawdowns. Meanwhile, equity volatility remains subdued, a condition that historically correlates with lower forward returns over the subsequent six to twelve months.

This low-volatility complacency can lull investors into underestimating tail risks, especially when other asset classes also appear expensive. Gold, for instance, has seen renewed inflows into bullion-backed ETFs and now trades near US$3,760 per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions and a modestly weaker US dollar, which closed at 98.152.

Yet gold positioning is once again crowded, suggesting limited room for further upside without a significant catalyst such as a sharp escalation in global instability or a deeper-than-expected economic slowdown. Similarly, credit markets show tight bond spreads, indicating that investors are not demanding much compensation for credit risk. In such an environment, security selection becomes paramount.

Broad exposure to high-yield or investment-grade debt may not suffice. Instead, bottom-up analysis of issuer fundamentals is essential.

Mixed economic signals and political risks

The macroeconomic backdrop offers mixed signals. August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3 per cent month-over-month, resulting in a 2.7 per cent annual headline rate. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, stood at 2.9 per cent year-over-year after a 0.2 per cent monthly increase.

This remains above the Fed’s two per cent target but shows signs of gradual moderation. The data came in largely in line with expectations and did not provoke a strong market reaction, suggesting that investors have already internalised a path of gradual disinflation. However, political risks loom large.

The September 30 deadline for US government funding is fast approaching, and with congressional negotiations stalled, the probability of a partial shutdown is rising. While past shutdowns have had limited economic impact, they inject uncertainty into market psychology and could delay fiscal policy decisions or data releases, further complicating the Fed’s communication strategy.

Wall Street’s reaction and treasury yields

Market reactions to recent events have been muted but telling. Wall Street closed higher last Friday, ending a three-day losing streak, with the Dow Jones up 0.7 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining 0.6 per cent, and the Nasdaq rising 0.4 per cent.

Notably, markets barely flinched at the announcement of new sector-specific tariffs by the Trump administration, signalling either desensitisation to trade rhetoric or confidence that such measures will not significantly disrupt the broader economic trajectory. Treasury yields reflected this calm.

The 10-year yield edged up just one basis point to 4.183 per cent, while the two-year yield dipped two basis points to 3.645 per cent, flattening the yield curve slightly. This dynamic suggests that while near-term rate expectations are stable, longer-term growth and inflation concerns persist.

Asia’s cautious mood and key data ahead

In Asia, equities dipped on Friday as resilient US data prompted a modest reassessment of rate cut expectations. US equity index futures point to a higher open, indicating that global investors remain cautiously optimistic. The coming week will be pivotal, with the September nonfarm payrolls report on October 3 serving as a key barometer of labor market health.

Additional insights will come from the JOLTS job openings data on Tuesday and the ADP private payroll report on Wednesday. Labour market strength remains the Fed’s primary concern. If employment data remains robust, it could delay further rate cuts or reduce their magnitude, directly impacting risk asset valuations.

Bitcoin’s technical recovery

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has staged a “reasonable” technical recovery, rising 2.24 per cent in the past 24 hours to US$111,966 after a 7-day decline of 2.23 per cent. This rebound appears driven by three converging factors. First, price action held firm at the US$108,680 support level, breaking a bearish trend line and reclaiming the US$111,000 mark.

Hourly indicators, including a bullish MACD crossover and an RSI stabilising around 47-48, suggest that short-term momentum has shifted in favour of buyers. The 200-day exponential moving average at US$106,200 continues to act as a structural support, reinforcing the asset’s resilience.

However, the critical test lies ahead. A sustained close above US$112,500, the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline, could pave the way for US$113,700 to US$115,000. Failure to break this resistance may invite profit-taking and a retest of the lower support level.

On-chain metrics and corporate adoption

Second, on-chain metrics show improving demand dynamics. The 60-day Buy/Sell Pressure Delta has entered what analysts describe as an opportunity zone, indicating reduced selling pressure.

The decline in sending addresses and stable miner reserves, holding steady at 1.8 million BTC, suggests that long-term holders are not capitulating. That said, the 90-day delta remains cautious, reflecting lingering uncertainty among larger participants. The Coinbase Premium Index, currently at +0.041, will be a key gauge of sustained US institutional interest.

Third, corporate adoption continues to provide narrative support. The rebranding of 164-year-old Japanese textile firm Marusho Hotta to Bitcoin Japan and its announcement of a BTC treasury business, while small in absolute scale, aligns with a growing trend among Asian corporations seeking alternative stores of value amid declining traditional revenues.

Firms like Metaplanet and Kitabo have similarly adopted Bitcoin, reinforcing its digital gold thesis in a region that is increasingly skeptical of fiat stability.

Final thoughts: Selectivity over momentum

In sum, the current market environment demands a nuanced approach. While the Fed’s pivot to easing should, in theory, support risk assets over the medium term, the combination of expensive valuations, narrow market leadership, and external risks ranging from a potential government shutdown to geopolitical flare-ups calls for disciplined selectivity.

Investors should avoid chasing momentum in already crowded trades and instead focus on quality earnings, global diversification, and tactical entry points during pullbacks.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-feds-first-rate-cut-what-it-means-for-equities-risk-and-crypto-20250929/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The rate cut rally: Earnings, gold, and Bitcoin in the balance

The rate cut rally: Earnings, gold, and Bitcoin in the balance

History shows that equities often deliver solid gains in the year following the start of such cycles, with the S&P 500 averaging around 14 per cent returns over 12 months based on past data from various cycles. Yet the initial month after the first cut tends to bring choppiness, as markets adjust to shifting monetary policy.

In this case, equities rallied strongly leading up to the cut, pushing the S&P 500 up 15 per cent in the past six months and a whopping 32 per cent from its yearly lows. I see this preemptive surge as a sign of market optimism, but it also raises flags for potential consolidation ahead.

Investors priced in these cuts long ago, so the real test comes from upcoming events like speeches from 10 FOMC governors and the PCE inflation report due on September 26. If inflation data surprises on the upside, volatility could spike, reminding everyone that even dovish Fed actions carry risks in an economy where growth projections and unemployment trends diverge sharply.

Fund managers’ bold bets on risk assets

Fund managers continue to lean heavily into risk assets, particularly equities, despite nagging worries about persistent inflation and a weakening US dollar. This positioning strikes me as bold, perhaps overly so, given the mixed signals from the broader economy. Many in the industry view artificial intelligence as a deflationary force that could counter current inflationary pressures, an idea that holds water when you consider how AI efficiencies might drive down costs in sectors like manufacturing and services.

Gold’s performance this year underscores these tensions, with prices surging 38 per cent year-to-date amid buoyant rate-cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainties. Research into recent gold price drivers points to factors like central bank buying, trade tensions, and lower interest rates making the metal more appealing as a hedge.

However, fund flows indicate much of this buying stems from speculation rather than genuine hedging, and professional asset managers maintain low exposure to gold and digital assets. In my view, this creates intriguing opportunities for savvy investors to buy on dips, especially as gold hit US$3685.30 per ounce recently. The under-allocation by institutions suggests room for further upside if economic headwinds intensify, but it also warns against chasing the rally without careful consideration.

Balancing strategy: Barbell approach and diversification

Strategic advice in this environment boils down to respecting the Fed’s direction without blindly following the herd. The central bank’s dovish stance supports companies with strong earnings growth, yet piling into mega-cap tech stocks at current valuations feels precarious. A barbell approach makes sense here, where you hold core positions in quality names, add selectively during pullbacks, and diversify into global themes and yield-focused plays.

Singapore’s yield stocks stand out, having outperformed the S&P 500 over both five- and ten-year periods, which bolsters the argument for regional diversification beyond US borders. I favour this strategy because it balances growth potential with income stability, particularly in a world where US-centric portfolios risk overexposure to domestic policy shifts.

With the Fed projecting more cuts on October 29 and December 12, lower rates could fuel corporate borrowing and expansion, but diverging economic indicators demand vigilance. Unemployment might tick up if growth slows more than expected, potentially pressuring equities despite the supportive policy backdrop.

Macro shifts and geopolitical influences

Turning to the broader macro picture, global risk sentiment holds firm thanks to the allure of additional rate cuts enhancing corporate earnings outlooks. The week ahead features the high-level General Debate at the 80th UN General Assembly starting Tuesday, with President Trump addressing the opening session and Fed Chair Powell discussing the economic outlook. These events could inject fresh narratives into markets, especially amid positive developments in US-China relations.

President Trump’s recent conversation with Chinese leadership led to a deal on the popular Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, allowing it to continue operations in the US under new controls, which eased some trade anxieties. Wall Street responded enthusiastically, with major indices hitting record highs on Friday, the Dow Jones up 0.37 per cent, S&P 500 up 0.49 per cent, and Nasdaq up 0.72 per cent.

Treasury yields edged higher, the 10-year at 4.127 per cent and the 2-year at 3.572 per cent, reflecting a mix of growth optimism and inflation watchfulness. The dollar index climbed 0.30 per cent to 97.64, while gold rose 1.1 per cent on rate-cut bets. Brent crude dipped 1.1 per cent to US$66.68 per barrel following EU sanctions on Russian oil vessels and buyers, highlighting ongoing energy market fragilities. Asian equities showed mixed results Friday and in early trading today, with US futures pointing to a lower open, suggesting caution amid these crosscurrents.

Bitcoin volatility and regulatory headwinds

Bitcoin’s recent dip adds another layer to the market mosaic, with the cryptocurrency falling 0.93 per cent to US$114,566 over the past 24 hours, lagging the broader crypto market’s 1.91 per cent decline. This underperformance stems from profit-taking after hitting recent highs, technical breakdowns near the US$115,400 resistance level, and regulatory uncertainties.

Drawing from similar patterns in September 2024 analyses, when Bitcoin traded around US$63,000 and faced consolidation phases, the current setup echoes familiar volatility drivers like leverage unwinds and momentum shifts. Over US$176 million in long positions were liquidated as prices tested US$115,000 support, amplifying the drop in a classic liquidity trap where open interest spiked 4.14 per cent to US$937 billion.

Traders piled in near resistance, only to face swift reversals, which I interpret as a healthy correction in an asset that has risen 81 per cent year-to-date. The failure to break above the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$115,400 triggered algorithmic selling, with the MACD histogram still positive at +265 but RSI hovering around 51-53, indicating waning momentum.

Bulls must secure a close above that level to reclaim initiative; otherwise, a breach of US$114,500, the 30-day simple moving average, could cascade toward US$110,000.

Regulatory developments weigh heavily on Bitcoin’s short-term path, presenting a neutral but noisy influence. The US Treasury’s commentary on the GENIUS Act, issued on September 20, emphasises stablecoin regulations requiring full reserves in liquid assets like Treasuries and technological capabilities for freezing assets, aiming to foster innovation while curbing risks. This act, signed into law earlier this year, mandates issuers to comply with federal laws, potentially stabilising the crypto ecosystem but introducing oversight that cools institutional enthusiasm.

Meanwhile, the EU’s MiCA regulation drives exchange consolidation, enforcing consumer protections, market integrity, and restrictions on stablecoin use as exchange mediums, which impacts global flows. Exchanges adapting to MiCA gain credibility and access to unified EU markets, but the compliance shifts have slowed inflows, with ETF volumes dipping and minor outflows from products like GBTC.

In my opinion, these headwinds represent growing pains for the sector; long-term clarity should prove bullish by attracting more institutional capital, yet the immediate uncertainty often halts rallies, as seen in past cycles.

Closing thoughts: Cautious optimism ahead

Overall, the market’s resilience amid the Fed’s pivot impresses me, but I remain cautious about overextended positions in tech and crypto. The historical precedent of positive equity returns post-rate cuts offers encouragement, yet the unique blend of geopolitical events like the UNGA, US-China thawing via the TikTok agreement, and persistent inflation worries calls for measured optimism. Gold’s speculative surge and Bitcoin’s technical wobbles serve as barometers for broader risk appetite, suggesting investors diversify thoughtfully.

The barbell strategy aligns with my view that quality growers paired with yield plays provide a sturdy foundation, especially as Singapore’s outperformance demonstrates the value of global exposure. With PCE data looming and more Fed cuts on the horizon, markets could consolidate, but the underlying dovish support tilts the scales toward gradual upside. Still, chasing crowds in mega-caps or digital assets without waiting for pullbacks risks unnecessary pain; patience often rewards in these environments.

As we head into the final quarter, keeping an eye on unemployment trends and corporate earnings will prove crucial, potentially defining whether this cycle mirrors the average 14 per cent gain or veers into choppier territory. The economy’s divergences remind us that while the Fed guides, real-world data ultimately steers the ship.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-rate-cut-rally-earnings-gold-and-bitcoin-in-the-balance-20250922/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j