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Fed cuts rates but crypto plunges: The liquidity trap no one’s talking about

Fed cuts rates but crypto plunges: The liquidity trap no one’s talking about

The market rally following the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive 25 basis point interest rate cut of 2025 appears, at first glance, to signal renewed optimism across traditional asset classes. Equities responded positively, with the Dow Jones rising 1.05 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining 0.67 per cent, and the Nasdaq closing up 0.33 per cent. Bond yields retreated in tandem, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling more than three basis points to 4.15 per cent and the two-year yield dropping over seven basis points to 3.54 per cent.

The dollar weakened broadly, especially against the yen, which gained ground as markets priced in a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in December. Even commodities reflected a cautious optimism, with Brent crude ticking up 0.44 per cent to US$62.21 per barrel amid heightened geopolitical tensions, and gold climbing 0.7 per cent to US$4236.57 per ounce as a defensive hedge.

Beneath this surface calm, the cryptocurrency market tells a very different story. Bitcoin and the broader digital asset complex declined by 2.82 per cent over the past 24 hours, extending a 14.1 per cent monthly drawdown. The Fed’s latest policy manoeuvre, which also included an announcement of US$40 billion in monthly Treasury purchases commencing December 12, effectively a stealth quantitative easing program, failed to ignite bullish sentiment in crypto.

Instead, the market interpreted the move not as a bold affirmation of economic strength, but as a reactive response to deteriorating growth prospects and mounting stagflationary pressures. This perception has triggered a significant reallocation of risk within crypto, where investors are abandoning speculative altcoins in favor of Bitcoin’s relative stability, pushing Bitcoin dominance to 58.54 per cent, a 30-day increase of 1.77 percentage points.

The disconnect between traditional markets and crypto hinges on liquidity expectations, leverage dynamics, and the unique structural vulnerabilities of digital asset markets at this point in the cycle. Unlike equities, which benefit from long-standing institutional infrastructure and predictable seasonal flows, crypto markets operate in a more volatile, sentiment-driven ecosystem that is acutely sensitive to shifts in macro liquidity, especially near year-end.

Analysts such as Adam from Greeks.live have highlighted the historical tendency for crypto liquidity to dry up in the final weeks of the calendar year. This seasonal tightening amplifies any macro uncertainty, turning minor corrections into cascading liquidations when leverage is high.

And leverage was indeed high. Over the past 24 hours alone, US$94 million in long positions were liquidated in Bitcoin markets, with 61 per cent of those forced closures hitting leveraged longs. Total open interest across crypto derivatives markets contracted by 4.34 per cent, while perpetual funding rates, though nominally positive at +0.0023 per cent, failed to provide meaningful price support.

The US$1.25 trillion in daily derivatives volume, a 14.3 per cent increase day-over-day, did not reflect fresh accumulation or conviction buying, but rather panic-driven unwinding by retail traders who had overextended during Bitcoin’s November rally. This dynamic underscores a fragile market structure, one that rallies on euphoria but collapses rapidly when sentiment shifts, especially in the absence of strong institutional demand.

The exodus from altcoins further illustrates this risk-off posture. Tokens like Solana and Sui, which had previously benefited from speculative inflows during periods of macro complacency, dropped between five and eight per cent as investors rotated into Bitcoin. The Altcoin Season Index now stands at just 17, deep in “Bitcoin Season” territory. This flight to safety within the crypto ecosystem mirrors broader macro trends, where institutions are trimming high-beta exposures ahead of anticipated volatility in 2026.

Notably, the 30-day correlation between crypto and the Nasdaq-100 has climbed to +0.48, while Bitcoin’s 24-hour correlation with the index sits at +0.39. These figures confirm that crypto is no longer operating in a vacuum; it is increasingly tethered to the same macro anxieties that drive equity markets, particularly around interest rate trajectories, inflation persistence, and growth sustainability.

From a strategic standpoint, this environment demands a reassessment of traditional crypto narratives. For years, proponents argued that digital assets would decouple from legacy markets and serve as an alternative store of value or inflation hedge. The data from this latest cycle suggests the opposite. Crypto’s fate remains tightly bound to US monetary policy and risk sentiment.

The Fed’s decision to cut rates while simultaneously launching asset purchases should, in theory, have flooded the system with liquidity and supported risk assets. Markets read between the lines. The fact that the Fed felt compelled to act while growth indicators remain ambiguous signals underlying weakness, not strength. In such conditions, capital gravitates toward assets with the clearest fundamentals and deepest liquidity, which, within crypto, means Bitcoin and little else.

Looking ahead, two critical levels will determine whether this selloff evolves into a deeper correction or merely a year-end consolidation. First, Bitcoin must hold the US$89,500 support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger cascading margin calls, especially given the elevated leveraged positioning still present in the market. Second, the ETH/BTC ratio, currently at 0.0214 and nearing 2025 lows, will serve as a barometer for altcoin sentiment. A sustained rebound above this level could indicate that risk appetite is returning to the broader ecosystem.

The central question now is whether January’s traditional “risk-on” seasonal patterns, historically a strong period for crypto due to post-holiday capital reallocation and tax-loss harvesting reversals, will be powerful enough to override the macro headwinds building for 2026.

With the Fed Funds Target Rate now at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent and further cuts anticipated in the second and third quarters of 2026, bringing the rate down to 3.25 per cent by year-end, the path of monetary policy appears accommodative on paper. If inflation proves sticky or growth falters further, even these cuts may not suffice to restore confidence in risk assets.

In this context, the crypto market’s reaction to the latest Fed move reflects not just short-term technical weakness, but a deeper reassessment of its role in the global financial system. As institutional adoption matures, digital assets are shedding their reputation as a purely speculative frontier and becoming subject to the same macro forces that govern traditional markets.

That integration brings legitimacy, but also vulnerability. For investors navigating this transition, the key will be distinguishing between structural value and cyclical noise, and recognising that in times of uncertainty, even within a decentralised ecosystem, capital seeks safety first, innovation second.

 

Source: https://e27.co/fed-cuts-rates-but-crypto-plunges-the-liquidity-trap-no-ones-talking-about-20251211/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Fed cuts rates but warns against complacency: Bitcoin and altcoins react sharply

Fed cuts rates but warns against complacency: Bitcoin and altcoins react sharply

The recent Federal Reserve policy decision has injected a fresh wave of caution into global financial markets, and the cryptocurrency sector has not been spared. On the surface, the Fed delivered exactly what many had anticipated: a 25 basis point rate cut, accompanied by the early termination of quantitative tightening. Beneath that veneer of predictability lies a more complex and nuanced message, one that has unsettled investors across asset classes.

Chair Jerome Powell’s explicit pushback against the market’s assumption of another rate cut in December has recalibrated expectations, triggering a repricing of risk and a retreat from speculative positioning. This recalibration is now rippling through equities, bonds, commodities, and digital assets alike, underscoring just how tightly crypto remains tethered to macroeconomic sentiment despite its purported independence.

Powell’s assertion that further easing is not a foregone conclusion marked a clear departure from the dovish momentum that had built over recent weeks. Until this week, markets had priced in near certainty of a December rate cut, with implied probabilities hovering close to 100 per cent. That confidence has now evaporated, with the odds collapsing to roughly 60 per cent. The shift has immediate consequences.

Treasury yields responded sharply, with the two-year US note jumping 11 basis points to 3.6 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed 9 basis points to 4.07 per cent. Even the long-end 30-year yield rose, advancing 7 basis points to 4.61 per cent. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, both of which retreated in the wake of the announcement. Spot gold fell 0.6 per cent to close at US$3,929.36 per ounce, while the crypto market as a whole shed 1.22 per cent over the past 24 hours.

Equity markets also reflected this growing unease. Although the Nasdaq managed a modest 0.6 per cent gain, the broader S&P 500 ended flat, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2 per cent. More telling than the headline moves was the underlying volatility sparked by signs of internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee. When central bank consensus fractures, markets lose their anchor.

This uncertainty manifests not just in price swings but in a broader retreat from risk, which explains why crypto, despite its unique technological underpinnings, continues to trade in close correlation with tech-heavy equities like the Nasdaq 100. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price action showed a 0.61 correlation with QQQ, reinforcing the idea that macro drivers, not on-chain fundamentals, are currently setting the tone.

Within the crypto ecosystem, the reaction unfolded across three distinct but interconnected layers: macro policy impact, derivatives behaviour, and altcoin-specific dynamics. In the first layer, the Fed’s hawkish tilt acted as the primary catalyst. By tempering expectations for further easing, Powell effectively removed a key tailwind that had supported risk assets throughout the latter half of the year.

Traders who had positioned for a dovish December were forced to unwind those bets, leading to a broad-based pullback. Bitcoin’s seven-day Relative Strength Index now sits at 55.36, indicating neutral momentum, but market psychology tells a different story. The Fear & Greed Index has dipped to 34, signalling that fear, not greed, is dominating sentiment. This emotional backdrop often precedes either capitulation or consolidation, depending on what policymakers do next.

The second layer derivatives activity offers a more nuanced picture. Perpetual futures volume surged by 9.15 per cent to US$1.62 trillion, suggesting heightened trader engagement. This surge was not accompanied by bullish conviction. Instead, average funding rates collapsed by 81.63 per cent to just 0.000974 per cent, a clear sign that leveraged long positions are being scaled back. Funding rates, which reflect the cost of maintaining long or short positions in perpetual contracts, serve as a real-time gauge of market sentiment.

When they turn deeply negative or collapse toward zero, it typically indicates that traders are either hedging or actively shorting, rather than chasing upside momentum. Open interest inched up by 2.33 per cent, hinting at new positions being opened, but without liquidation data, it is difficult to assess whether this reflects fresh shorts or defensive longs. What is clear is that the derivatives market is not signalling a return to aggressive risk-taking. A rebound in funding rates would be needed to confirm any meaningful shift back toward bullish positioning.

The third and most volatile layer lies in the altcoin segment, where event-driven sell-offs have amplified broader macro weakness. Tokens like Flamingo (FLM) and Concordium (CCD) experienced sharp declines of 5.59 per cent and 19.04 per cent, respectively, driven by idiosyncratic factors rather than systemic ones. In Flamingo’s case, the impending delisting from Binance, effective November 12, has triggered a wave of preemptive selling.

For Concordium, the drop appears to be classic profit-taking after an extraordinary 428 per cent rally year-to-date. Similarly, Giggle Fund (GIGGLE) corrected by 19.59 per cent following a staggering 541 per cent monthly surge. These moves highlight a recurring theme in crypto markets: low-liquidity assets are especially vulnerable to sharp reversals when macro conditions turn unfavourable. Without deep order books or institutional backing, even minor shifts in sentiment can trigger outsized price swings.

Looking ahead, all eyes will turn to Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report. This data point carries outsized importance because it will offer the first major labor market signal since the Fed’s latest decision. Strong employment numbers could reinforce Powell’s cautious stance and further diminish expectations of a December cut, deepening the risk-off mood. Conversely, a softer print might revive hopes for additional easing, potentially stabilising or even reversing recent losses.

For Bitcoin, the technical picture adds another layer of intrigue. With a market capitalisation of US$3.74 trillion, the leading cryptocurrency is currently testing the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level, a key support zone closely watched by both algorithmic and discretionary traders. Whether this level holds will likely depend less on on-chain metrics and more on the macro narrative that emerges from the jobs data and subsequent Fed commentary.

In sum, the current crypto dip is not an isolated event but a reflection of broader macro caution. The Fed’s decision to cut rates while pushing back against further easing has created a policy gray zone in which markets must navigate conflicting signals without clear guidance.

In such an environment, risk assets tend to consolidate or correct until a new consensus forms. Derivatives data suggests that traders are not yet capitulating but are certainly treading carefully. Altcoins, meanwhile, remain exposed to both macro headwinds and project-specific risks.

The path forward hinges on whether incoming economic data validates the Fed’s caution or forces a pivot back toward accommodation. Until then, expect volatility to persist, and sentiment to remain fragile.

 

Source: https://e27.co/fed-cuts-rates-but-warns-against-complacency-bitcoin-and-altcoins-react-sharply-20251030/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The crypto catalyst: How inflation, rates, and risk sentiment shape Bitcoin’s path

The crypto catalyst: How inflation, rates, and risk sentiment shape Bitcoin’s path

Bitcoin, the world’s pioneering and largest cryptocurrency, has been riding a wave of momentum in recent days, hovering tantalisingly close to its all-time high of just under US$112,000, a peak it reached on May 22. As of Wednesday morning, Bitcoin’s price surged to US$110,400 before retreating slightly to US$108,800, mirroring a broader pullback in US stock markets.

This performance comes against a complex backdrop of cooling US inflation data, escalating trade tensions, and shifting global risk sentiment. With the cryptocurrency staging a decisive breakout above a technical flag pattern earlier this week, investors are eyeing potential new highs, even as macroeconomic uncertainties loom large. Let’s take a look.

A technical breakout signals bullish momentum

From a technical analysis standpoint, Bitcoin’s recent price action paints an encouraging picture for bulls. Earlier this week, the cryptocurrency broke out above a flag pattern—a chart formation that typically emerges after a sharp price move, signalling a period of consolidation before the trend resumes.

In this case, the breakout suggests that Bitcoin is poised for another leg higher, building on its rally over the past week. Key resistance levels to watch are US$112,000—the previous record high—and US$137,000, which could serve as the next major target if upward momentum persists.

On the flip side, support levels at US$107,000 and US$100,000 provide critical floors. Should Bitcoin slip below US$107,000, it could trigger a deeper correction, potentially testing the US$100,000 mark. For now, the breakout above the flag pattern reinforces a bullish narrative, but these key levels will determine whether Bitcoin can sustain its climb or face a near-term setback.

Technical analysis alone doesn’t tell the whole story, but it provides a roadmap for interpreting price movements. The flag pattern’s bullish implication is bolstered by Bitcoin’s 16 per cent gain since the start of the year, a performance that has outpaced major US stock indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which ended Wednesday down 0.27 per cent and 0.50 per cent, respectively.

This divergence highlights Bitcoin’s growing appeal as an alternative asset, even as traditional markets grapple with renewed trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump’s pledge to set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks.

Fundamental drivers: From political support to institutional adoption

Beyond the charts, a confluence of fundamental factors is underpinning Bitcoin’s resilience. One of the most striking developments is the cryptocurrency’s newfound legitimacy, driven in part by political support. President Trump, who was once a skeptic of digital currencies, has recently expressed enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies, alongside several allies in Congress.

This shift could pave the way for more favorable regulatory frameworks, a stark contrast to the early days when Bitcoin was dismissed as a speculative oddity. While Trump’s tariff threats have rattled global markets, his pro-crypto stance offers a counterbalancing positive for Bitcoin, potentially boosting its long-term adoption.

Institutional interest is another powerful tailwind. Publicly traded companies like Strategy (MSTR) have been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, using proceeds from equity sales to bolster their corporate treasuries with the digital asset.

This trend reflects a growing perception of Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, particularly in an environment where traditional safe havens like US Treasuries are seeing yields slip—the 10-year yield fell 6 basis points to 4.12 per cent on Wednesday following cooler-than-expected inflation data.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen their total assets balloon to US$132 billion this month, up from US$91 billion in early April. This surge highlights the growing demand from institutional investors, who now have regulated avenues to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset.

Perhaps most telling is the steady decline in Bitcoin held on centralised exchanges. Since the beginning of 2025, exchange balances have dropped 14 per cent, reaching 2.5 million BTC—a level last seen in August 2022. This trend signals growing investor confidence and a shift toward long-term holding.

When investors move Bitcoin into cold storage or custodial wallets, it reduces the liquid supply available for trading, limiting short-term sell pressure. Large entities, including institutional players and so-called “whales,” often withdraw coins after buying, suggesting accumulation is underway. With fewer coins readily available to flood the market, this dynamic could amplify upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, especially if demand continues to climb.

Macro context: Inflation, rates, and risk sentiment

Bitcoin’s recent surge hasn’t occurred in a vacuum—it’s been fuelled by encouraging macroeconomic signals. On Wednesday, US CPI and Core CPI data revealed a modest 0.1 per cent increase in May, weaker than economists had forecast. This softer-than-expected inflation print suggests that companies are absorbing higher tariff costs rather than passing them on to consumers, easing inflationary pressures.

For investors, this is a green light: cooler inflation strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as September. Lower rates typically diminish the appeal of yield-bearing assets, such as bonds, driving capital toward riskier investments, including equities and cryptocurrencies. Gold, a traditional inflation hedge, edged up 0.1 per cent to US$3,324.72 per ounce on the news, while Bitcoin’s rally reflects a similar flight to alternative stores of value.

Yet, the macroeconomic picture isn’t uniformly rosy. Global risk sentiment took a hit as Trump’s tariff threats dialed up trade tensions, sending US stocks lower and dragging the US Dollar Index down 0.47 per cent to 98.63. Asian equity markets were mixed on Thursday morning, and US equity futures pointed to a lower open, signalling persistent unease.

In commodities, Brent crude jumped 4.3 per cent to US$69.77 per barrel amid escalating US-Iran tensions, highlighting geopolitical risks that could ripple across asset classes. Bitcoin, often touted as “digital gold,” may benefit from this uncertainty, but its correlation with risk assets, such as stocks, suggests it’s not immune to broader market sell-offs.

Risks and opportunities: A balanced perspective

The outlook for Bitcoin remains overwhelmingly bullish, but it’s not without caveats. On the positive side, the technical breakout, institutional adoption, and declining exchange balances form a robust foundation for further gains.

The prospect of Fed rate cuts, bolstered by Wednesday’s inflation data, adds fuel to the fire, as does the growing political and corporate embrace of cryptocurrencies. If Bitcoin can clear the US$112,000 hurdle, US$137,000 becomes a plausible target, potentially marking a new chapter in its ascent.

However, risks loom on the horizon. Regulatory uncertainty remains a wildcard—while political support is growing, the specifics of future legislation are unclear, and adverse rules could dampen enthusiasm. Bitcoin’s high volatility is another concern; sharp price swings are par for the course, and a sudden shift in risk sentiment could trigger a pullback.

The broader economic context adds complexity: Trump’s tariff plans could disrupt global trade, and a resulting downturn might drag risk assets, including Bitcoin, lower. Finally, despite its gains, Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition is still debated. Critics argue it lacks intrinsic value, while proponents see it as a hedge against fiat currency debasement. This tension keeps the asset class polarising.

My point of view: Optimism tempered by caution

Tracking Bitcoin’s evolution, I’m struck by how far it’s come—from a fringe experiment to a mainstream contender. Its recent performance reflects a maturing asset class, buoyed by institutional credibility and macroeconomic tailwinds.

I’m optimistic about its near-term prospects; the technical breakout and fundamental drivers suggest more upside, especially if the Fed pivots to rate cuts. The declining exchange balances, in particular, strike me as a powerful signal of conviction—investors aren’t just speculating, they’re committing for the long haul.

That said, I can’t ignore the risks. Bitcoin’s volatility is a double-edged sword, and its sensitivity to global risk sentiment means it could falter if trade tensions escalate or economic clouds gather. For all its progress, it’s still a young asset, and its fate hinges on factors beyond its control—regulation, geopolitics, and market psychology among them.

My view is one of cautious optimism: Bitcoin has the wind at its back, but investors should tread carefully, balancing its potential rewards against its inherent uncertainties.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-crypto-catalyst-how-inflation-rates-and-risk-sentiment-shape-bitcoin-path-20250612/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j