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Global markets react to Trump’s crypto dinner and Bitcoin’s record high

Global markets react to Trump’s crypto dinner and Bitcoin’s record high

Global markets are navigating a labyrinth of economic, political, and monetary challenges, each influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics profoundly. Following a rally across the curve on Thursday driven by moderating fiscal concerns, the recent stabilisation of US Treasuries suggests a tentative calm amidst a broader storm.

US equity indices reflected this cautious mood, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remaining flat, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a modest gain of 0.3 per cent. Asian equity indices were mostly higher in early trading, and US equity futures hinted at a slight opening increase of 0.1 per cent, signalling a fragile optimism.

However, beneath this surface calm lies a web of anxieties, centred primarily on the fiscal health of the United States, the world’s largest economy. Moody’s Ratings’ downgrade of the US credit rating last week has intensified these concerns, serving as a stark warning about the nation’s mounting debt. Adding fuel to the fire, President Donald Trump’s tax bill, narrowly passed by the House, has raised fears of ballooning deficits.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s potential policy shifts and a dramatic surge in Bitcoin trading volumes introduce additional layers of complexity. This article explores these interconnected developments, offering a detailed examination of their implications for global markets and a perspective on the road ahead.

The bond market has been a focal point of investor unease this week, acting as a barometer of confidence in the US economy. US Treasuries initially rallied as investors sought safety amid fiscal uncertainties, driving yields lower across the curve. However, this safe-haven surge was fleeting, as renewed worries about the US fiscal trajectory triggered volatility.

Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating from its top tier was a seismic event, underscoring the risks posed by a national debt that now exceeds US$36 trillion—a figure that has swelled due to years of budget deficits. The passage of Trump’s tax bill, which promises substantial tax cuts without offsetting spending reductions, has deepened these concerns.

Critics warn that this legislation could add trillions to the deficit over the next decade, potentially pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to unsustainable levels. The Congressional Budget Office estimates an additional US$5.2 trillion deficit by 2035 if key provisions are extended, a projection that has rattled investors. This perceived fiscal recklessness prompted a sell-off in Treasuries, driving yields higher as investors demanded greater compensation for risk.

The 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed five per cent, a threshold not crossed in over a year, before moderating slightly. Rising yields increase borrowing costs for the government and ripple through the economy, impacting mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, and consumer spending, all of which could amplify economic pressures in an already uncertain environment.

Against this backdrop of fiscal turbulence, the Federal Reserve’s stance has taken on heightened significance. Governor Christopher Waller recently offered a glimpse into the central bank’s strategy, suggesting that interest rates could be lowered in the second half of 2025 if the Trump administration’s tariffs on US trading partners stabilise at around 10 per cent.

This conditional outlook reflects the Fed’s vigilance regarding trade policies that could stoke inflation by raising the cost of imported goods. Lowering rates could soften the economic blow of tariffs, making borrowing cheaper and spurring investment and consumption. Yet, this approach is not without risks.

Rate cuts in an economy already grappling with inflationary pressures—evidenced by rising global commodity prices—could overheat markets, complicating the Fed’s dual mandate of fostering maximum employment and price stability. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has felt the strain, consolidating weekly losses as investors weigh the prospects of rate cuts and fiscal instability.

A weaker dollar could bolster US exports by enhancing competitiveness but also inflate import costs, potentially feeding into domestic price increases. This tightrope walk highlights the Fed’s challenge: supporting growth without igniting an inflationary spiral, all while fiscal policy threatens to undermine monetary efforts.

Beyond the US, inflationary pressures are gaining momentum globally, adding another dimension to the market narrative. In Japan, the key inflation gauge has surged at its fastest pace in two years, propelled by escalating food and energy costs. This uptick has bolstered the yen slightly, as markets speculate that the Bank of Japan may tighten its ultra-accommodative monetary stance to curb price rises. Japan’s inflationary trend mirrors a broader global pattern, fuelled by supply chain bottlenecks, geopolitical uncertainties, and the lingering effects of post-pandemic recovery.

Europe, too, is contending with rising prices, prompting discussions at the European Central Bank about policy adjustments. This synchronised inflationary wave suggests that central banks may need to align their responses to prevent destabilising economic disparities. In the commodities sphere, gold has held firm, trading just below US$3,300 per ounce after a slight 0.6 per cent dip, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset amid US fiscal jitters.

Conversely, Brent crude oil prices slipped 0.7 per cent to around US$85.50 per barrel, reflecting a de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran and anticipation of an OPEC+ output increase in July. While lower oil prices might ease some inflationary strain, gold’s resilience signals persistent investor caution, painting a mixed picture of risk appetite and economic stability.

Amid these conventional market currents, the cryptocurrency sector has emerged as a striking counterpoint, with Bitcoin stealing the spotlight. The leading virtual currency soared to a record high near US$112,000 on Thursday, buoyed by a dramatic surge in trading activity.

Bitcoin futures trading volume spiked to over US$203 billion on Wednesday—the third-highest daily total in 2025—while spot trading volume hit a two-day peak of US$150 billion, the highest in nearly two months, according to CoinMarketCap. Several forces are driving this frenzy. The US fiscal concerns and a softening dollar have pushed investors toward alternatives perceived as hedges against inflation and currency depreciation, with Bitcoin often likened to “digital gold.”

Additionally, the low-interest-rate environment has fuelled a quest for yield, drawing capital into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. The timing of Bitcoin’s ascent coincides with a high-profile event: President Trump’s dinner for top holders of his TRUMP meme coin, held Thursday at the Trump National Golf Club in Washington, D.C. This gathering, potentially hosting up to 220 attendees, with the top 25 earning a White House tour, has sparked intrigue and controversy.

Bloomberg reports that 19 of these top 25 holders are based outside the US, raising national security and ethical questions about foreign influence in a politically charged crypto venture. Notable attendees include Justin Sun, founder of the Tron blockchain, who has clashed with US regulators over allegations of unregistered securities sales and market manipulation, and who claims to be the top TRUMP holder after a US$75 million investment in the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial platform.

Other guests, such as Singapore’s MemeCore and an Australian crypto entrepreneur, highlight the global reach of this phenomenon. Technologically, Bitcoin’s momentum is robust: the hourly MACD is accelerating in the bullish zone, and the RSI exceeds 50, signaling strong upward pressure.

Support levels at US$110,000 and US$108,200 provide a cushion, while resistance at US$112,000 and US$113,200 looms as the next test. This technical strength, coupled with macroeconomic and political catalysts, underscores Bitcoin’s growing role in the financial ecosystem.

Reflecting on these developments, the current state of global markets reveals a landscape fraught with both peril and potential. The US fiscal situation, exacerbated by Moody’s downgrade and Trump’s tax bill, has cast a long shadow over investor confidence, evident in the bond market’s turbulence and the dollar’s fragility. The Federal Reserve’s hinted rate cuts introduce a wildcard, balancing tariff-driven inflation risks against growth support, while global inflation—exemplified by Japan’s surge—complicates the monetary picture.

Commodities offer a split verdict: gold’s steadfastness betrays lingering fears, while oil’s retreat hints at easing pressures. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, amplified by trading volumes and political spectacle, signals a shift toward alternative assets, yet its volatility and the ethical quandaries of events like Trump’s dinner temper enthusiasm with caution.

For investors, this environment demands agility—diversifying into safe havens like gold or even cryptocurrencies might mitigate risks, but the latter’s regulatory and security uncertainties warrant restraint.

Looking forward, the trajectory of US fiscal policy, the pace of global inflation, and the maturation of crypto markets will shape the next chapter. For now, global finance remains a high-stakes puzzle, blending opportunity with profound challenges and requiring sharp analysis and measured action from all players involved.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-react-to-trumps-crypto-dinner-and-bitcoins-record-high-20250523/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Tariffs, tech crashes, crypto dips, and gold’s record run: Why markets are in chaos today

Tariffs, tech crashes, crypto dips, and gold’s record run: Why markets are in chaos today

This week, the interplay of US-Japan trade talks, US-China tariff escalations, and new restrictions on chip exports has kept markets on edge. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s measured response to the turmoil has dashed hopes for immediate intervention, leaving investors to grapple with volatile asset prices and shifting risk sentiment.

The current market landscape is a complex tapestry of competing forces, from Bitcoin’s resilience to Ethereum’s technical signals, US equities’ performance, and gold’s safe-haven allure. Below, I offer my perspective on these developments, weaving together the broader macroeconomic context, asset-specific dynamics, and the implications for investors navigating this fraught environment.

The tentative global risk sentiment reflects the high stakes of ongoing tariff negotiations, particularly between the US and its major trading partners. The advancement of US-Japan trade talks, marked by President Trump’s optimistic claim of “big progress,” provided a modest lift to Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 gaining slightly. However, the yen weakened as investors priced in the likelihood of a deal that could avert higher US levies on Japanese goods, particularly in the auto sector. This development underscores Japan’s delicate balancing act: while a trade agreement could stabilise its export-driven economy, a stronger US dollar against the yen could pressure Japanese manufacturers’ competitiveness. The Bank of Japan, already grappling with a low-yield environment, may face further constraints if US tariffs dampen economic growth, as Governor Kazuo Ueda recently hinted.

For investors, the yen’s trajectory and Japan’s market performance hinge on the specifics of any deal—whether it prioritises market access or imposes new non-tariff barriers.

The US-China trade war, however, remains the epicentre of market anxiety. The White House’s confirmation of a staggering 245 per cent cumulative tariff rate on Chinese imports, following China’s retaliatory 125 per cent levies on US goods, signals a deepening economic standoff. This tit-for-tat escalation, coupled with new US restrictions on chip exports by Nvidia and AMD, has battered technology stocks and fueled fears of disrupted global supply chains. The chip export curbs, targeting Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 AI chips, are a strategic move to limit China’s access to advanced technology, but they come at a cost: Nvidia estimates a US$5.5 billion hit to its revenue, and its shares slumped nearly seven per cent.

The broader tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 3.1 per cent, contributing to the MSCI US index’s 2.2 per cent decline. These developments highlight the fragility of the tech sector, which has been a cornerstone of US market performance but is now vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

China’s response has been multifaceted, blending defiance with pragmatism. Beijing’s vow to “fight to the end” against US tariffs is tempered by signals of openness to negotiations, suggesting a desire to avoid a complete collapse of trade relations. However, China’s reported sale of confiscated cryptocurrency holdings, including Bitcoin, amid an economic slowdown, adds another layer of complexity.

This move, likely driven by the need to bolster fiscal reserves, has sparked speculation about its impact on crypto markets. Remarkably, Bitcoin has shown resilience, holding above US$84,000 despite the sales. This strength can be attributed to Bitcoin’s growing perception as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly as central banks and investors seek alternatives to traditional assets amid trade war volatility. Posts on X reflect this sentiment, with some users noting Bitcoin’s 64 per cent market dominance—a level not seen since early 2021—as evidence of its safe-haven appeal.

Ethereum, by contrast, has struggled, slipping below US$1,600 and entering a technically bearish phase. An analysis by CryptoQuant’s abramchart offers a nuanced perspective, suggesting that Ethereum’s current price near its realised price of US$1,585 could signal a deep-value accumulation zone. Historically, such levels have preceded major bull runs as long-term holders re-enter the market. However, technical indicators paint a mixed picture: Ethereum’s breach of its 20-day moving average and its position well below the 200-day average confirm a strong downtrend, while the relative strength index near 40 indicates weak momentum.

The compressed Bollinger Bands suggest a potential breakout, but the direction remains uncertain. For investors, Ethereum’s current dynamics present both opportunity and risk. While the realised price level hints at undervaluation, the broader market’s risk-off mood and trade war headwinds could delay a rebound.

The Federal Reserve’s role in this turbulent environment cannot be overstated. Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks this week, emphasising a wait-and-see approach to tariffs, have quashed expectations of a “Fed put”—a swift policy response to stabilise markets. Powell’s caution is rooted in the dual risks of higher inflation and slower growth, which tariffs are “highly likely” to exacerbate. His acknowledgement that the Fed faces a “highly uncertain outlook” underscores the central bank’s dilemma: cutting rates could fuel inflation while holding or raising rates risks stifling growth and employment. The Fed’s benchmark rate, currently between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent, reflects this holding pattern, with traders still betting on cuts by June despite Powell’s reticence. The Fed’s data-dependent stance, coupled with solid economic indicators like March’s 228,000 job additions, suggests that any policy shift will hinge on clearer evidence of tariff-related economic fallout.

Fixed-income markets have also felt the strain, with US Treasury yields edging lower as investors reassess growth prospects. The 10-year yield fell 5.6 basis points to 4.28 per cent, and the two-year yield dropped 7.5 basis points to 3.77 per cent, reflecting concerns about a potential recession. The US dollar index’s 0.8 per cent decline, reaching its lowest level since April 2022, signals waning confidence in US assets as investors pivot to safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Gold, meanwhile, has surged 3.5 per cent to a record US$3,339 per ounce, with ANZ Bank forecasting a rise to US$3,600 by year-end.

This rally, driven by central bank purchases and haven demand, underscores gold’s role as a bulwark against geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Brent crude’s 1.8 per cent rise to around US$65 per barrel, spurred by US sanctions on Chinese importers of Iranian oil, highlights the ripple effects of trade policies on commodity markets.

US equities, particularly the energy sector, have shown pockets of resilience, with energy stocks gaining 0.8 per cent amid higher oil prices. However, the broader MSCI US index’s 2.2 per cent tumble reflects the tech sector’s drag and broader tariff fears. Asian equities, trading in a tight range, have been buoyed by hopes of Chinese stimulus, but volatility persists as negotiation headlines dominate. US equity futures, pointing to a 0.4 per cent higher open, suggest a tentative recovery, but the market’s direction remains contingent on trade developments.

From my perspective, the current market environment demands a disciplined, long-term approach. The escalation of US-China tariffs and chip export restrictions poses significant risks to global growth, particularly for the tech and manufacturing sectors. However, opportunities exist in assets such as Bitcoin and gold, which are benefiting from their safe-haven status. Ethereum’s technical setup, while bearish, suggests potential for accumulation by patient investors.

Powell’s cautious stance, while frustrating for those seeking immediate relief, is a prudent response to an unprecedented policy shock. Investors should focus on diversification, prioritising assets with strong fundamentals and resilience to geopolitical volatility. The road ahead is fraught with uncertainty, but those who navigate it with clarity and conviction may find opportunities amid the storm.

In conclusion, the global markets are at a crossroads, shaped by the interplay of trade tensions, monetary policy, and shifting investor sentiment. The US-China tariff war, US-Japan trade talks, and the Fed’s watchful stance are driving volatility across equities, currencies, and commodities. Bitcoin’s resilience, Ethereum’s accumulation potential, and gold’s surge highlight the divergent paths assets are taking in this environment. As negotiations unfold and economic data clarifies the tariff impact, investors must remain agile, balancing risk and opportunity in a rapidly evolving landscape.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-markets-are-in-chaos-today-20250417/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Market wrap: US equities muted amid tariff news, gold hits near record high, digital assets is the future

Market wrap: US equities muted amid tariff news, gold hits near record high, digital assets is the future

The economic landscape of the past week has been shaped by a complex interplay of policy announcements, market reactions, and strategic corporate moves, all set against a backdrop of global uncertainty. At the forefront of these developments was President Trump’s indication of imposing tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, potentially starting from April 2nd. This move, ostensibly aimed at encouraging foreign manufacturers to invest in US production facilities, could have profound implications, particularly for industries where international supply chains are deeply integrated.

The automobile sector, already navigating through the challenges of electrification and autonomous driving, now faces the added complexity of potential tariff hikes. For European carmakers like Volkswagen and BMW, and Asian giants like Toyota and Hyundai, the implications are stark. The tariffs could increase the cost of vehicles for US consumers, potentially dampening demand, or push these companies towards establishing or expanding manufacturing operations in the US This shift, while beneficial for local job creation, comes with its own set of challenges, including high setup costs, cultural integration, and the need for skilled labor. Moreover, the environmental impact of such a move could be significant, considering the carbon footprint associated with new production setups.

Despite these looming threats, US equity markets showed a tempered response. The MSCI US index managed a slight increase of 0.3 per cent, with gains predominantly in Energy and Materials sectors, suggesting perhaps an anticipation of benefits from increased domestic production or from sectors less directly impacted by the tariffs. However, this muted market reaction might also indicate a ‘wait-and-see’ approach from investors, expecting either negotiations or modifications to the tariff policy before its full implementation.

The Federal Reserve’s stance, as articulated by various officials, was to maintain current interest rates, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amidst these trade uncertainties. Yet, the market’s expectation for a rate cut by September, as priced into futures, shows an underlying belief that the Fed might eventually need to counteract any adverse economic effects of these tariffs, like inflation or a slowdown in consumer spending. This is mirrored by a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.55 per cent, suggesting a market adjusting to new realities of potentially higher inflation or a stronger dollar, which indeed rose by 0.5 per cent to above 107.

Gold’s steady hold near record highs, with a 1.4 per cent increase, underscores the market’s search for safety amid these geopolitical and trade tensions. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil’s recovery after OPEC+’s suggestion to delay supply increases could signal a tighter oil market, which might benefit energy companies but also stir inflation concerns.

In Asia, the economic narrative was somewhat divergent. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut to 4.10 per cent was a move to stimulate an economy facing external pressures, yet it came with warnings against expecting too much from further monetary easing. In China, the decline in the CSI300 index by 0.9 per cent reflected ongoing concerns about economic stability and the impact of US trade policies. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index’s initial gains fizzled out, pointing to a cautious optimism regarding government support for the private sector.

Turning to the digital economy, significant movements are afoot in the cryptocurrency space. Robinhood Markets’ planned expansion into Singapore through Bitstamp, an exchange it acquired for US$200 million, highlights a strategic push into Asia’s burgeoning crypto market. This move not only aims at leveraging Bitstamp’s regulatory and institutional strengths but also reflects a broader trend of integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance, albeit with careful consideration of regulatory landscapes.

Hong Kong’s proactive stance on digital assets was vividly illustrated at the Coindesk Consensus Hong Kong 2025 conference, where the CEO of the Securities and Futures Commission, Julia Leung, outlined plans for new crypto products like derivatives and margin lending. This aligns with Hong Kong’s ambition to become a leading center for digital assets, especially post the 2021 crypto ban in mainland China. The issuance of nine digital asset trading licenses, with more applications in review, and the drafting of stablecoin regulations, all point towards a strategic pivot to capitalise on the global crypto boom.

From my perspective, these developments are indicative of a world where traditional economic structures are being challenged by new policies and technological advancements. The potential tariffs could lead to a reconfiguration of global supply chains, impacting not just trade but also environmental and employment policies. The Fed’s cautious approach to interest rates reflects a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and controlling inflation. Meanwhile, the rise of digital assets in regulated markets like Hong Kong and Singapore signifies a shift towards a more tech-driven financial ecosystem, where regulation will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics.

This economic juncture requires companies and investors to be agile, adapting not just to policy changes but also to technological innovations. The interplay between these economic, regulatory, and technological shifts will continue to define the strategies and fortunes of businesses worldwide, making this a critical time for strategic foresight and adaptability.

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-us-equities-muted-amid-tariff-news-gold-hits-near-record-high-digital-assets-is-the-future-20250219/

 

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j