Tag Archives: record

Bullish on chips, bearish on congress: The strange calm behind Wall Street’s record run

Bullish on chips, bearish on congress: The strange calm behind Wall Street’s record run

The US stock market’s ascent on Thursday reflects a confluence of technological optimism, political uncertainty, and shifting macroeconomic signals that together paint a complex but compelling picture of current investor sentiment. All three major indices, the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, closed at new record highs, with gains of 0.4 per cent, 0.1 per cent, and 0.2 per cent respectively.

This continued rally builds on the momentum from the previous session, when the S&P 500 crossed the 6,700 threshold for the first time in its history. The driving force behind this sustained upward movement remains the artificial intelligence trade, which has reinvigorated investor enthusiasm across the semiconductor and broader tech sectors. Nvidia, the undisputed leader in AI chips, reached another all-time high, while peers like AMD and South Korea’s SK Hynix also posted notable gains.

But the real spark this week came not from hardware manufacturers but from OpenAI, whose private valuation reportedly surged to US$500 billion following an internal employee share sale. This development effectively dethroned Elon Musk’s SpaceX as the world’s most valuable private company and injected fresh confidence into the AI narrative, even as sceptics warn of a potential bubble.

What makes this rally particularly striking is its resilience in the face of significant political turbulence. A partial US government shutdown is now underway, with no clear resolution in sight before the weekend. Former President Donald Trump, who remains a dominant figure in Republican politics, has escalated his rhetoric, threatening to fire thousands of federal workers and cancel billions in federal funding directed to states that lean Democratic.

He also announced a Thursday meeting with Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought to identify which so-called “Democrat Agencies” should face budget cuts. Despite this volatility in Washington, financial markets have shown remarkable indifference, a testament to how deeply investor focus has shifted toward technological disruption and away from short-term fiscal standoffs. That said, the shutdown is not without consequences.

The Bureau of Labour Statistics has almost certainly delayed the release of the September jobs report, originally scheduled for Friday. This data blackout deprives the Federal Reserve of a key input as it prepares for its October policy meeting, where labour market conditions will weigh heavily on the decision to hold or cut interest rates. In the absence of official economic indicators, traders are turning to alternative signals, including movements in Bitcoin and institutional flows into digital assets.

Speaking of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency posted a 1.92 per cent gain over the past 24 hours, extending its seven-day advance of 10.14 per cent and 30-day climb of 8.56 per cent. This sustained bullish trend stems from three interlocking catalysts: growing speculation around sovereign Bitcoin reserves, strong inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and favourable technical indicators supported by shifting macro expectations.

The idea of nation-states holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset is no longer confined to outliers like El Salvador. On October 2, Swedish lawmakers formally proposed the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, while in the US, Representative Nick Begich introduced legislation calling for a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.” Though these proposals remain in early stages, their mere existence signals a gradual normalisation of Bitcoin as a potential store of value at the sovereign level.

If even a fraction of these ideas materialise, say, a US acquisition of 1 million BTC, representing roughly 4.76 per cent of the total supply, the market impact would be profound. At current prices, such a purchase would cost approximately US$120 billion and significantly tighten available liquidity. Even smaller-scale adoption, such as the Czech Republic’s rumoured consideration of allocating five per cent of its foreign exchange reserves to Bitcoin, reinforces the “digital gold” thesis that underpins long-term institutional interest.

Parallel to these geopolitical developments, institutional demand through regulated financial products continues to accelerate. On October 1 alone, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$430 million in net inflows, reversing a prior week of outflows. This surge coincided with heightened anxiety over the government shutdown, suggesting that some investors view Bitcoin as a hedge against political and fiscal instability. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF now holds US$77 billion worth of Bitcoin, underscoring the scale of institutional participation.

With total assets under management in spot Bitcoin ETFs approaching US$153 billion, the buying pressure from these vehicles has become a structural feature of the market. Unlike retail traders who may react emotionally to news cycles, ETF-driven demand tends to be more consistent and less price-sensitive, creating a floor beneath Bitcoin’s valuation. Corporate treasuries are also contributing to this trend.

Japanese firm Metaplanet recently added 5,268 BTC to its balance sheet in a US$615 million purchase, joining a growing list of companies treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. This dual wave of sovereign and corporate accumulation, though still nascent, is reshaping Bitcoin’s supply dynamics in ways that favour long-term price appreciation.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s price action supports this optimistic outlook. The asset reclaimed key support levels and broke above the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$112,591, stabilising around the US$113,877 pivot. The Relative Strength Index sits at 62.97, firmly in bullish territory but not yet overbought, suggesting room for further upside before encountering resistance near US$121,421, which corresponds to the 127.2 per cent Fibonacci extension.

Traders interpret consolidation above US$117,000 as a sign of underlying strength, particularly when paired with improving macro conditions. Indeed, weaker-than-expected US labour data released on October 2 has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term, with markets now pricing in a 78 per cent chance.

Lower interest rates typically benefit risk assets by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments like Bitcoin. Caution remains warranted, however. A Sharpe-like ratio of 0.18 indicates that while returns are positive, the risk-adjusted payoff is modest, pointing to a market that is optimistic but not euphoric.

In sum, the current market environment reflects a delicate balance between technological exuberance and political fragility. US equities continue to scale new heights, propelled by AI-driven narratives and record-setting valuations for private tech giants like OpenAI.

At the same time, Bitcoin is carving out a parallel rally, fuelled by institutional adoption, sovereign curiosity, and technical momentum. Both markets are operating in a data vacuum created by the government shutdown, forcing investors to rely on alternative signals and forward-looking indicators.

The Federal Reserve’s next move will be pivotal, and while the odds favour a dovish pivot, any surprise hawkish stance could disrupt the current equilibrium. For now, however, the prevailing mood is one of cautious confidence, a belief that innovation, whether in artificial intelligence or digital money, will ultimately outweigh the noise from Washington.

As we approach the Fed’s October 30 decision and monitor legislative developments in both the US Congress and Sweden’s Riksdag, the intersection of technology, policy, and finance will remain the central axis around which markets revolve.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bullish-on-chips-bearish-on-congress-the-strange-calm-behind-wall-streets-record-run-20251003/

 

 

 

Binance Square:

#Bouncebit ($BB) – BounceBit is a BTC restaking chain with an innovative CeDeFi framework.

#WalletConnect ($WCT)- WalletConnect is an open-source protocol that enables secure and seamless connections between cryptocurrency wallets and decentralized applications (dApps) across multiple blockchains.

#Dolomite ($DOLO)-  Dolomite is the only lending and borrowing platform that can support over 1,000 unique assets.

#PythNetwork ($PYTH)- Pyth Network is a decentralized first-party financial oracle delivering real-time market data on-chain in a secure, transparent manner without third-party middlemen (nodes).

#Mitosis ($MITO)- Mitosis introduces a protocol that transforms DeFi liquidity positions into programmable components while solving fundamental market inefficiencies.

#Somnia ($SOMI) – Somnia is an EVM-compatible L1 blockchain with a focus on mass consumer applications such as games and entertainment products.

#OpenLedger ($OPEN)- OpenLedger is the AI Blockchain, unlocking liquidity to monetize data, models, and agents. OpenLedger is designed from the ground up for AI participation.

#Plume ($PLUME)- Plume is a modular Layer 2 blockchain network developed to support real-world asset finance (RWAfi).

#Boundless ($ZKC)- Boundless is a zero-knowledge proving infrastructure designed to provide scalable proof generation for blockchains, applications, and rollups.

#Holoworld AI ($HOLO)- Holoworld AI focuses on addressing major gaps in today’s digital landscape, where creators often lack scalable AI-native tools,

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Record gold, falling yields, and rising Bitcoin: The interwoven narrative of modern risk assets

Record gold, falling yields, and rising Bitcoin: The interwoven narrative of modern risk assets

Despite weaker-than-expected private payroll data and the onset of a US federal government shutdown, risk appetite remained surprisingly resilient. This resilience is not born of complacency but rather of a recalibration in expectations around monetary policy, particularly the growing conviction that the Federal Reserve may soon pivot toward rate cuts.

The ADP National Employment Report showed a decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, following a revised 3,000 decrease in August, standing in stark contrast to the median Bloomberg survey forecast of a 51,000 gain. This miss reinforced market bets that the labour market is cooling, thereby increasing the likelihood of a dovish shift from the Fed later this month.

The immediate market reaction was telling: US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping 5.2 basis points to close at 4.098 per cent, while the US Dollar Index edged down 0.07 per cent to 97.7. Simultaneously, gold surged to a record high of US$3,865.70 per ounce, a classic safe-haven move that also signals growing confidence in lower-for-longer rate expectations.

Equity markets responded with cautious optimism. Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones gaining 0.09 per cent, the S&P 500 up 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.4 per cent. The healthcare sector provided strong support, suggesting investors are rotating into defensive yet growth-oriented segments amid macro crosscurrents.

Asian equities followed suit, mainly ending higher and continuing their upward trajectory in early Thursday trading, led by gains in semiconductor and broader technology stocks. US equity index futures pointed to further upside at the open, underscoring a broader narrative: markets are pricing in a soft landing scenario, where economic data deteriorates just enough to prompt Fed accommodation without triggering a full-blown recession.

This nuanced outlook has created fertile ground for alternative assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, which have begun to reassert their role not just as speculative instruments but as potential macro hedges.

The crypto market rose 3.91 per cent over the past 24 hours, extending a seven-day gain of 4.11 per cent. This sustained rally is not driven by retail FOMO alone but by structural developments that signal deeper institutional entrenchment and regulatory progress.

Three key catalysts stand out: the launch of institutional-grade Bitcoin options, regulatory maturation in Asia, particularly Hong Kong, and a surge in decentralised finance (DeFi) liquidity through major platform integrations. Each of these factors contributes to a more robust and credible ecosystem, one that increasingly appeals to traditional finance participants seeking exposure to digital assets without compromising on risk management or compliance.

The debut of Bitcoin options on Bullish Exchange on October 8 marks a significant milestone in the institutionalisation of crypto. Backed by heavyweight players such as BlackRock, Galaxy, Cumberland, and Wintermute, this offering arrives at a time when open interest in crypto derivatives has already reached a yearly high of US$1.24 trillion, up 30 per cent month-over-month.

Weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached US$571 million, further validating demand from regulated investment vehicles. Options markets deepen liquidity, enable sophisticated hedging strategies, and reduce volatility over time by allowing large players to manage risk without selling spot holdings.

The immediate market response was telling: perpetual funding rates surged 207 per cent within 24 hours, indicating a sharp increase in leveraged long positioning. This suggests that institutional participants are not just passively investing but actively expressing bullish macro views through derivatives. If trading volume on the new options platform proves robust, it could cement Bitcoin’s status as a legitimate macro hedge akin to gold but with asymmetric upside potential in a low-rate environment.

Parallel to this institutional build-out, Asia is emerging as a critical regulatory laboratory for crypto adoption. Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority (HKMA) has received 36 applications for stablecoin licenses, with submissions coming from established banks and major tech firms.

This signals a shift from regulatory ambiguity to structured oversight, a prerequisite for large-scale institutional capital deployment. Stablecoins serve as the on-ramp and off-ramp for digital asset ecosystems, and their formal regulation removes a major friction point for traditional finance integration.

In South Korea, SK Planet’s adoption of Moca Network’s decentralised identity system triggered a 60 per cent rally in ZEN, illustrating how real-world utility can drive value in privacy-focused protocols. Crucially, crypto-equity correlations remain elevated at +0.76 against the Nasdaq, meaning that positive sentiment in tech equities continues to spill over into digital assets. As Asian regulators provide clearer guardrails, they reduce the jurisdictional risk that has long deterred pension funds, asset managers, and corporate treasuries from entering the space.

Meanwhile, DeFi is experiencing a quiet but significant expansion in accessibility. Coinbase’s integration of 1inch’s Swap API now grants its users access to millions of tokens across decentralised exchanges. This move contributed to a 17.92 per cent spike in spot trading volumes, though derivatives still dominate 84 per cent of total crypto volume.

The integration lowers the barrier to entry for retail investors seeking exposure to emerging narratives such as privacy coins like Zcash, which jumped 60 per cent. However, the Altcoin Season Index dipped 3.23 per cent, suggesting that while capital is exploring beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, it has not yet committed to a broad-based rotation.

This hesitation may reflect lingering caution or simply the time lag between infrastructure development and narrative adoption. Either way, the trend points toward a more interconnected and liquid DeFi landscape, where centralised platforms act as bridges to decentralised liquidity.

Taken together, these developments paint a picture of a maturing asset class. The current rally is not a speculative bubble but a reflection of tangible progress on multiple fronts: institutional infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and technological interoperability. The confluence of Bullish Exchange’s options launch, Hong Kong’s stablecoin licensing momentum, and Coinbase’s DeFi integration represents a trifecta of credibility-building measures.

These are the foundations upon which a sustainable, long-term bull market can be built, not on hype, but on infrastructure. The path forward will not be linear, and leverage remains a double-edged sword, but the structural tailwinds are stronger than they have ever been. Traders must remain vigilant.

Open interest has risen 14 per cent in a single day, indicating that leverage is building rapidly. In a market still sensitive to macro surprises, a sudden shift in sentiment, perhaps triggered by stronger-than-expected US jobs data, could spark a short squeeze or a wave of liquidations.

The upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report, though potentially delayed due to the government shutdown, remains a critical inflection point. fA weak print would likely reinvigorate rate-cut expectations, further boosting risk assets and strengthening the correlation between crypto and traditional markets. Conversely, a resilient labor market could force a reassessment of the dovish narrative, testing the durability of this rally.

In essence, the crypto market is at a crossroads. It is no longer solely driven by retail enthusiasm or macro liquidity cycles. Instead, it is being reshaped by institutional architecture, regulatory milestones, and real-world utility. As such, the current price action should be viewed not as a fleeting surge but as the market pricing in a new phase of digital asset evolution.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/record-gold-falling-yields-and-rising-bitcoin-the-interwoven-narrative-of-modern-risk-assets-20251002/

Binance Square:

#Bouncebit ($BB) – BounceBit is a BTC restaking chain with an innovative CeDeFi framework.

#WalletConnect ($WCT)- WalletConnect is an open-source protocol that enables secure and seamless connections between cryptocurrency wallets and decentralized applications (dApps) across multiple blockchains.

#Dolomite ($DOLO)-  Dolomite is the only lending and borrowing platform that can support over 1,000 unique assets.
#PythNetwork ($PYTH)- Pyth Network is a decentralized first-party financial oracle delivering real-time market data on-chain in a secure, transparent manner without third-party middlemen (nodes).
#Mitosis ($MITO)- Mitosis introduces a protocol that transforms DeFi liquidity positions into programmable components while solving fundamental market inefficiencies.
#Somnia ($SOMI) – Somnia is an EVM-compatible L1 blockchain with a focus on mass consumer applications such as games and entertainment products.
#OpenLedger ($OPEN)- OpenLedger is the AI Blockchain, unlocking liquidity to monetize data, models, and agents. OpenLedger is designed from the ground up for AI participation.
#Plume ($PLUME)- Plume is a modular Layer 2 blockchain network developed to support real-world asset finance (RWAfi).
#Boundless ($ZKC)- Boundless is a zero-knowledge proving infrastructure designed to provide scalable proof generation for blockchains, applications, and rollups.
#Holoworld AI ($HOLO)- Holoworld AI focuses on addressing major gaps in today’s digital landscape, where creators often lack scalable AI-native tools,

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

S&P at record highs, Bitcoin at US$115K: Why this convergence signals a new market era

As markets wrap up the weekend on September 15, investors face a pivotal moment that blends traditional equity strength with cryptocurrency resilience. The S&P 500 sits near record highs around 6,584, a level that reflects robust corporate earnings and lingering optimism about economic policy shifts, yet technical indicators hint at an impending pullback. Bitcoin hovers steadily at about US$115,000, recovering from a brief dip after touching US$116,800 last Friday, and analysts such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee fuel speculation of a surge to US$200,000 by year-end.

I see this convergence as a sign of maturing markets where risk assets increasingly move in tandem, driven by shared sensitivities to Federal Reserve actions. While the broader economy shows signs of cooling inflation and steady growth, the interplay between Wall Street giants and digital currencies underscores the need for thoughtful positioning. Households build cash reserves, bond markets price in rate relief, and global trends favor the United States, but short-term volatility looms large. In my view, this setup rewards patient diversification over concentrated bets on high-flyers, as corrections could test even the strongest performers.

The S&P 500 has delivered impressive gains through much of 2025, climbing over 14 per cent year-to-date and pushing past 6,500 in recent sessions. Companies in the index continue to surprise on the upside during earnings seasons, with the second quarter of 2025 marking the 15th out of the last 16 periods where results exceeded analyst forecasts.

Earnings growth hit around 7.6 per cent for the quarter, led by technology and financial sectors that capitalised on resilient consumer spending and easing macro pressures. Tech firms, in particular, drove much of this momentum, with cloud computing and artificial intelligence investments paying off in higher revenues. I find this pattern encouraging because it demonstrates corporate America’s adaptability in a high-interest-rate environment that persisted longer than many anticipated. However, the index’s concentration in a handful of names raises red flags for sustainability.

The so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla, now account for over 30 per cent of the S&P 500’s total weight, up sharply from just 12 percent eight years ago. These leaders propelled nearly half of the index’s returns in 2024 and continue to dominate in 2025, with Nvidia alone serving as a cornerstone for many portfolios due to its explosive growth in AI chip demand.

Nvidia’s role stands out as both a boon and a cautionary tale. The company reported stellar quarterly results that reinforced its position in the AI boom, with revenues surging due to increased demand for data centers. Investors flock to it for its momentum, but I advocate spreading exposure because over-reliance on one stock amplifies risks from sector-specific headwinds like supply chain disruptions or regulatory scrutiny on tech monopolies. The Magnificent Seven’s profit growth, while strong, has not matched their market cap expansion, creating a valuation stretch that could unwind in a downturn.

Enter the “Next 20” stocks, the subsequent largest companies in the S&P 500 by market cap, which span more balanced sectors such as industrials, healthcare, and consumer goods. These names have lagged the top tier but offer compelling alternatives with steadier earnings profiles and lower volatility. For instance, firms in utilities and materials beat earnings expectations at rates above 70 per cent in the recent quarter, signaling broad-based health.

In my opinion, shifting some allocation here makes sense for long-term stability, especially as AI adoption remains nascent among S&P 500 companies. Surveys show only about 11 per cent of these firms plan to implement AI tools in the next six months, leaving room for gradual productivity gains but also highlighting that the hype has outpaced reality in many boardrooms.

Technically, the S&P 500 appears overstretched after its rally, with moving averages and momentum indicators flashing warning signs. The index trades in a rising channel on medium-term charts, but negative divergence in the MACD suggests weakening upside momentum relative to price action. Key support levels cluster around 6,144 and 6,000, near the 200-day moving average, where buyers could step in during a correction.

Recent sessions show a slight pullback of 0.05 per cent to 6,584, but broader patterns point to a five to 10 per cent dip as funds rebalance and profit-taking intensifies. Historically, September ranks as the weakest month for the index, averaging negative returns since 1950, often exacerbated by fiscal year-end adjustments and seasonal liquidity drains.

I expect this tradition to hold, particularly with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting just two days away on September 17. Traders price in a near-certain 25 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4 to 4.25 percent, followed by two more reductions in October and December.

Such moves typically spark initial volatility, as markets digest the “sell the news” reaction before embracing looser policy. US households, flush with cash from prior savings, position well to weather any turbulence, and widening bond spreads indicate that much of the anticipated relief already factors into prices.

Defensive sectors face heavy short interest as capital chases growth and momentum plays, but I believe a rebound awaits if drawdowns materialise. Investors pile into technology and consumer discretionary, where AI and e-commerce thrive, yet utilities and staples trade at discounts that could attract value hunters.

Globally, the US asserts dominance in equities, bolstering the dollar’s strength against peers and drawing inflows from emerging markets grappling with slower recoveries. AI’s low penetration rate among S&P firms tempers the narrative of an immediate revolution, but projections from analysts such as those at Morgan Stanley suggest it could unlock nearly US$920 billion in annual value through efficiency gains and innovation. Tech giants plan to pour US$371 billion into data centers this year, a figure that underscores the sector’s forward momentum.

Still, broader adoption lags, with only 20 per cent of S&P 500 boards featuring AI expertise, per recent disclosures. In my assessment, this gradual rollout favours diversified portfolios that capture upside without betting the farm on unproven technologies. The US equity market’s primacy reinforces a pro-risk environment, but global themes, such as European energy transitions and Asian manufacturing shifts, offer complementary opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven.

Turning to Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency maintains poise around US$115,000, a level that reflects institutional maturation amid traditional market parallels. After peaking at US$116,800 on Friday, it settled with minimal fluctuation over the weekend, underscoring stability in a high-volatility asset class. Technical charts reveal solid support at US$114,000, tested but held firm, while resistance looms at US$116,200 and US$116,500.

The relative strength index hovers overbought at 81.7, signaling potential consolidation as traders book profits from the seven-day rally. I view this as a healthy breather in an otherwise bullish setup, especially with the broader crypto market up 5.25 per cent weekly despite a 0.9 per cent daily dip. Institutional interest surges, evidenced by robust inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which saw US$642 million net additions on Friday alone and over US$2.3 billion for the week.

This marks the largest weekly haul in two months, contrasting with earlier outflows and highlighting a rotation toward Bitcoin from other assets. Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, pulled in US$624 million, but Bitcoin dominates the narrative as companies add it to balance sheets and forecast higher allocations for 2025.

Tom Lee’s bold call from Fundstrat captures the optimism swirling around Bitcoin. In a recent CNBC appearance, he linked the asset’s trajectory to monetary policy, noting its sensitivity to rate cuts and its historical strength in the fourth quarter.

Lee predicts Bitcoin could double to US$200,000 by December, a move he deems feasible given easing Fed actions and supply dynamics from the halving cycle. I appreciate his data-driven approach, drawing on past rallies where Bitcoin gained 20 to 35 per cent in Q4 bull years, but tempering enthusiasm with realism. Profit-taking pressures mount, as derivatives volume drops 27 per cent, and events like the YU stablecoin depeg to US$0.20 after a US$30 million hack inject caution across the sector. Macro jitters ahead of the Fed decision could trigger a “sell the news” event, even with 93 per cent odds of a cut.

Institutional rotations exhibit nuance, with US$3.8 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows over 30 days offset by gains in Ethereum, suggesting diversified crypto interest. Yet, Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500, around 0.3 to 0.6, implies shared downside risks in a correction. Social media buzz on platforms such as X echoes this sentiment, with traders eyeing a US$110,000 to US$130,000 range by month-end but warning of September’s historical weakness, during which Bitcoin has averaged five to seven per cent losses in seven of the last ten years.

Structured products linked to select Magnificent Seven names remain attractive for targeted exposure, offering leveraged upside with defined risks. Investors should diversify into the Next 20 and global equities to mitigate concentration dangers, as no major black swans lurk but sharp corrections persist.

Key events demand attention: the FOMC on September 17, where Chair Powell’s tone could sway sentiment, and the Bank of Japan meeting on September 19, potentially influencing yen flows and carry trades. From my perspective, the macro tailwinds favor risk assets, but overextension in equities and crypto calls for prudence. US dominance and AI’s promise sustain the bull case, yet low adoption rates and seasonal patterns urge balance.

Households’ cash hoards provide a buffer, and rate cuts, largely priced in, set the stage for volatility followed by relief. Bitcoin’s institutional embrace cements its role as a portfolio diversifier, potentially catching up to gold and stocks in a catch-up trade. Overall, I remain constructively optimistic, viewing dips as opportunities to build balanced positions that weather near-term storms and capture year-end rallies. Markets evolve, and those who adapt thrive.

 

Source: https://e27.co/sp-at-record-highs-bitcoin-at-us115k-why-this-convergence-signals-a-new-market-era-20250915/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j