Tag Archives: relief

Trump’s Davos reversal sparks massive relief rally in global stocks, cryptocurrencies

Trump’s Davos reversal sparks massive relief rally in global stocks, cryptocurrencies

I see a powerful reversal in global markets today, driven by a sudden calming of geopolitical waters that had only recently threatened to boil over. The primary catalyst was American President Donald Trump stepping back from the brink of a trade conflict with Europe. This immediate de-escalation saw a massive rotation back into riskier assets, effectively erasing the previous session’s sharp sell-off and highlighting just how sensitive modern markets are to political rhetoric.

My observation is that we live in an era in which a single statement from a world leader can swing billions of dollars in value in mere hours. The abandonment of tariff threats, framed around a supposed framework deal over Greenland at the World Economic Forum in Davos, instantly surged investor appetite for risk. This dynamic makes market stability a fragile thing, tethered closely to the whims of political negotiation.

US stock markets ended the day sharply higher, with every major index gaining over 1.1 per cent. The rally was broad and decisive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ascended 588.64 points, a 1.21 per cent gain, to close at 49,077.23. The S&P 500 advanced 78.76 points, or 1.16 per cent, ending at 6,875.62. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also jumped, adding 270.50 points, a 1.18 per cent rise, to reach 23,224.83. This momentum was not confined to American shores, as Asian markets also registered gains, signalling a global response to eased tensions.

Simultaneously, a potent dose of AI optimism fueled specific sectors. NVIDIA Corp. Chief Executive Jensen Huang’s statements at Davos, emphasising the critical need for multi-trillion-dollar investments in global AI infrastructure, provided a significant boost to chip stocks and related suppliers. This confluence of geopolitical relief and technological foresight created a strong bullish environment for equities.

The shift in sentiment profoundly impacted commodity markets. Safe-haven demand for gold evaporated as the fear gauge dropped, pushing the spot price down nearly one per cent to around US$4,793.63 per ounce. This followed a record peak in the previous session, perfectly illustrating gold’s traditional role as a crisis hedge. Meanwhile, crude oil prices, specifically West Texas Intermediate, edged up slightly to US$60.76 a barrel, a modest rise likely tied to broader economic optimism rather than supply-side concerns.

In the currency and bond markets, moves were more subdued but still reflected the risk-on mood. The euro was largely unchanged against the dollar, trading at US$1.1685. The Japanese yen fell slightly to 158.47 per dollar, a classic sign of receding risk aversion. The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.25 per cent, indicating slightly less demand for the safety of government debt. Investors are now keenly awaiting today’s American economic data releases, including Final GDP and Initial Jobless Claims figures, which could provide the next impetus for market movement.

The cryptocurrency market presented a fascinating, slightly divergent narrative. The broader crypto market rose 0.82 per cent over the last 24 hours, driven by unique internal dynamics involving institutional developments and derivatives activity, even as headline cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ether edged lower in the daily market snapshot, with Bitcoin trading around US$89,926.23. My view here is that the crypto market is maturing, developing drivers that are not always perfectly correlated with traditional finance’s daily movements.

The underlying strength in crypto stems from smart money accumulation. On-chain data reveals a clear divergence: Bitcoin whales, holding over 1,000 BTC, accumulated during a recent dip to US$89.4K, while smaller retail wallets sold off. This signals long-term confidence among major players, who see current levels as undervalued. The result was a 49 per cent fall in 24-hour Bitcoin liquidations to US$184.5 million, significantly reducing forced selling pressure and indicating robust underlying support.

Institutional milestones provided further bullish impetus. BitGo priced its initial public offering at US$18 per share, becoming the first major crypto custody firm to go public. This landmark event, coupled with F/m Investments’ filing to tokenise a Treasury exchange-traded fund on-chain, signals maturing infrastructure and regulatory progress. These developments attract traditional capital; indeed, TradFi inflows via ETFs remained stable, with assets under management totalling US$120.7 billion.

The derivatives market is where things get truly dynamic, if a little risky. Perpetual volume spiked 36 per cent to a massive US$1.32 trillion, with average funding rates rising 85 per cent weekly. Short-term traders are clearly leveraging bullish bets. However, open interest fell four per cent, suggesting some profit-taking after recent rallies. High funding rates, around +0.0037 per cent, also increase the inherent volatility risk, underscoring the need for careful management of this momentum.

In conclusion, today’s market activity is a powerful combination of global political relief and targeted sectoral optimism. The crypto uptick reflects strategic whale buying and institutional validation. While technical indicators show the market remains in a state of ‘Fear,’ as indicated by a CMC Index of 34, these underlying factors point toward cautious optimism prevailing.

All eyes are now on Bitcoin’s reaction as it tests the critical US$90K psychological level and on the forthcoming SEC decisions on F/m’s innovative tokenised ETF. The landscape remains complex, but for today, the bulls are firmly in control.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto’s fragile comeback: Technical relief meets macro uncertainty

Crypto’s fragile comeback: Technical relief meets macro uncertainty

The recent interplay between macroeconomic signals, regulatory shifts, and technical dynamics has placed the crypto market in a precarious but intriguing position. While traditional financial markets grapple with mixed labour data and shifting rate expectations, digital assets have staged a modest recovery, buoyed not by exuberance but by relief, tactical positioning, and emerging institutional frameworks. The 0.84 per cent rise in the crypto market over the past 24 hours appears deceptively simple, yet it encapsulates a much broader narrative about resilience amid structural uncertainty.

This rebound lies a classic technical phenomenon: the oversold bounce. The market’s RSI14 dipped to 31, flirting with the lower boundary of neutral territory and signalling that selling pressure had reached a temporary extreme. This condition attracted opportunistic traders, evidenced by a sharp 23 per cent surge in derivatives volume as participants sought to capitalise on discounted entry points. However, this surge came with a caveat. Open interest in perpetual and futures markets declined by 6.7 per cent, suggesting that while short-term speculators entered the fray, longer-term holders and leveraged participants remained cautious.

The MACD histogram, registering at a negative US$389 million, further underscored the absence of strong momentum behind the move up. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance held steady at 58.8 per cent, indicating that capital remained concentrated in the perceived safety of the flagship asset rather than rotating into riskier altcoins. This defensive posture reflects a market that is not yet convinced the worst is over, merely that it may have priced in the near-term pessimism.

Crucially, this technical bounce coincided with a notable policy development that may carry longer-term implications. Canada’s announcement of a forthcoming stablecoin regulatory framework for 2026 represents a rare moment of constructive clarity in an otherwise turbulent regulatory landscape.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem emphasised that only stablecoins pegged one-to-one to central bank currencies and backed by high-quality liquid assets like Treasury bills would qualify as “good money.” This stance, while stringent, provides a clear benchmark for issuers and reassures institutions that Canada seeks to integrate stablecoins into its financial infrastructure rather than shun them outright.

In a global context where regulatory ambiguity has often stifled innovation, Canada’s approach, complemented by its Real-Time Rail payments system and open banking initiatives, positions the country as an emerging hub for compliant digital finance. This contrasts sharply with the United States, where legislative delays continue to weigh on sentiment.

While the US remains the largest market for crypto ETFs, its policy inertia creates a vacuum that other jurisdictions are beginning to fill. Canada’s proactive stance, though modest in immediate market impact, offers a glimpse of a more stable institutional pathway forward, particularly for payment-oriented stablecoins that could bridge traditional finance and Web3 ecosystems.

Optimism remains tempered by the realities of institutional flows and on-chain behaviour. Grayscale’s bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2026, predicting new all-time highs, provides a compelling long-term thesis rooted in macro cycles and halving dynamics. This vision clashes with the short-term data emerging from ETF markets, which recorded US$1.11 billion in weekly outflows.

These outflows reflect investor caution in the face of rising macro uncertainty, including the mixed US jobs report that showed only 64,000 jobs added in November, barely above expectations, but a concerning rise in unemployment to 4.6 per cent, a four-year high. Such data complicates the Federal Reserve’s decision-making, diminishing hopes for aggressive rate cuts in early 2025 and indirectly pressuring risk assets.

In this environment, even bullish institutional narratives struggle to overcome near-term liquidity concerns. The pressure extended beyond Bitcoin, with Ethereum experiencing sharp derivatives liquidations after a single whale incurred a US$54 million unrealised loss on leveraged long positions. This episode highlights the fragility of leveraged exposure in times of volatility and the cascading effects that can ripple through the market when large positions unwind unexpectedly.

The broader macro backdrop further contextualises crypto’s cautious rebound. Asian equities declined broadly, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index falling 1.3 per cent to a three-week low. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.6 per cent ahead of a widely anticipated rate hike by the Bank of Japan, signalling a shift away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. Simultaneously, oil prices slumped below US$60 per barrel, their weakest level since May, driven by oversupply fears and speculation about potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

The US dollar weakened across major currencies following the ambiguous jobs data, suggesting markets are recalibrating expectations for global monetary policy divergence. In such a landscape, crypto’s modest gain appears not as a flight to risk but as a relative stabilisation after excessive pessimism.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of this rebound hinges on several converging factors. Technically, a decisive move above the 7-day simple moving average at US$3.03 trillion in total market capitalisation would signal growing confidence. More critically, Bitcoin must reclaim the US$87,000 level, a psychological and liquidity-rich threshold tied to US$20.6 million in potential long liquidations.

A break above this mark could trigger a wave of short-covering and renewed institutional interest, especially if macro conditions begin to favour risk assets once more. The Fear and Greed Index remains at 25, deep in “fear” territory, suggesting that sentiment has not yet turned, but also that there is room for improvement should catalysts materialise.

Ultimately, the current rally is not a declaration of a new bull market but a measured recalibration. It emerges from a confluence of short-term technical exhaustion, selective regulatory progress in jurisdictions like Canada, and persistent institutional conviction in crypto’s long-term narrative. However, it operates within a fragile ecosystem marked by declining year-over-year trading volume, down 11.7 per cent, defensive capital rotation, and ongoing macro headwinds.

The market’s next move will depend less on isolated data points and more on whether these disparate forces can align, whether policy clarity can offset ETF outflows, whether macro easing can return, and whether on-chain leverage can stabilise. Until then, traders and investors alike remain in a holding pattern, watching closely for the first signs of durable conviction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-fragile-comeback-technical-relief-meets-macro-uncertainty-20251217/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

From shutdown to surge: How macro relief is lifting crypto and equities

From shutdown to surge: How macro relief is lifting crypto and equities

Equity markets hover at critical technical junctures while macroeconomic headwinds, particularly the spectre of a prolonged US government shutdown, have only just begun to recede. Cryptocurrency markets, deeply intertwined with broader risk sentiment, have rebounded modestly, buoyed by improved macro conditions and renewed institutional interest in Layer 1 infrastructure. Beneath the surface, divergences in both traditional and digital asset markets suggest that the current calm may be temporary and highly contingent on incoming data, policy developments, and capital flows that remain in flux.

Equity markets continue to tread carefully around key technical support levels. The S&P 500, a bellwether for global investor sentiment, finds itself sandwiched between its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, zones that often act as fulcrums between continuation and reversal. Although recent price action has been subdued, the possibility of a year-end rally persists, especially given the surprisingly strong third-quarter earnings results that delivered a 15 per cent year-over-year profit growth across the index. This strength is increasingly concentrated and increasingly fragile.

The so-called Magnificent 7, once a monolithic engine of market returns, now exhibit stark performance divergence. Tesla, emblematic of this fragmentation, encapsulates the broader uncertainty. Analyst forecasts span from bullish projections of a 6x price surge to bearish scenarios anticipating steep corrections. Such volatility in outlook underscores a market increasingly sceptical of uniform growth assumptions and more attuned to company-specific fundamentals, execution risk, and macro dependencies.

This skepticism is well-founded. While optimism around artificial intelligence remains intact, particularly in the context of long-term structural transformation, the near-term outlook for capital expenditure shows signs of potential deceleration. The year 2026 may witness a slowdown in AI-related capex, especially in downstream sectors where valuations appear stretched relative to near-term revenue visibility.

Compounding this risk is the fact that many of the Magnificent 7 remain deeply tethered to consumer behavior, whether through digital advertising, cloud services, or hardware sales. Should broader economic conditions falter, driven by persistent inflation, tighter credit conditions, or geopolitical shocks, their vaunted cash flow strength could erode faster than anticipated. Investors would be wise to adopt a selective approach, distinguishing between companies with resilient business models and those riding speculative momentum.

Currency markets add another layer of complexity. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which had been testing the psychologically significant 100 level, pulled back slightly to 99.60 following news of a Senate resolution to end the 40-day government shutdown. The dollar remains strong, and positioning appears crowded. Such crowding increases the risk of sharp reversals should upcoming macro data or, more likely, signals from the Federal Reserve shift market expectations. A stronger dollar typically acts as a headwind for US multinational earnings and emerging market assets alike, and its influence on capital flows cannot be overstated. In the context of crypto, where dollar strength often inversely correlates with asset prices, this dynamic remains a critical variable.

Global themes further complicate the narrative. China’s strategic push into humanoid robotics, exemplified by XPENG’s IRON project, signals a broader ambition to dominate next-generation industrial and consumer technologies. Simultaneously, Chinese companies are accelerating overseas expansion, challenging incumbents in markets from Southeast Asia to Latin America. India, by contrast, has underperformed relative to both China and Japan, raising questions about its near-term growth inflexion and policy responsiveness. In such an environment, a barbell strategy, combining exposure to large-cap growth leaders with defensively positioned, dividend-paying equities, offers a prudent approach to navigating regional and sectoral divergences.

The macro backdrop improved meaningfully over the weekend with the Senate’s bipartisan agreement to end the government shutdown, the longest in US history. This resolution directly addresses a significant source of liquidity drain. Since October 10, approximately US$700 billion in economic activity has been disrupted or delayed, constraining both consumer and institutional risk appetite. With the shutdown concluded, capital can begin to reallocate toward risk assets, a dynamic already reflected in the 4.83 per cent 24-hour gain in crypto markets following a 3.94 per cent weekly loss. Bitcoin’s 0.70 seven-day correlation with the S&P 500 underscores how tightly crypto remains linked to traditional market sentiment. Relief in one arena quickly transmits to the other.

Layer 1 ecosystems have emerged as a focal point of this renewed optimism. Solana’s 4.42 per cent sector gain was catalysed by Western Union’s announcement that it will launch a US dollar stablecoin exclusively on Solana in the first quarter of 2026. This is not a speculative foray but a strategic institutional endorsement of Solana’s scalability and throughput.

Similarly, Ethereum received a significant vote of confidence through EigenCloud’s US$200 million deployment of ETH-based infrastructure to support AI systems. These developments indicate that blockchain is no longer merely a speculative playground but an operational backbone for real-world financial and technological infrastructure. Institutional adoption of this magnitude validates the long-term utility of high-performance Layer 1 networks and draws capital toward ecosystems demonstrating clear use cases and execution capability.

Technically, the crypto market rebounded from oversold territory, with the 14-day RSI at 37.4 signalling exhaustion among sellers. Bitcoin retested its 50-week moving average near the US$103,000 level, a zone that often acts as a magnet for price action. Spot trading volume rose 14 per cent to US$159 billion, while derivatives open interest climbed 5.76 per cent, suggesting that traders are cautiously re-engaging.

This optimism remains tempered. Ethereum ETFs recorded US$466 million in outflows on November 7 alone, highlighting persistent institutional scepticism toward ETH despite its technological advancements. Moreover, the market must sustain a close above the seven-day simple moving average at US$3.46 trillion in total market cap to confirm bullish momentum. Failure to do so could trigger a retest of the US$3.37 trillion Fibonacci support level.

Gold’s rise to US$4,007 per ounce amid dollar softening and shutdown-related uncertainty further illustrates the fragile nature of current sentiment. Safe-haven demand remains elevated, even as risk assets rally. This duality, bullish price action coexisting with defensive positioning, is a hallmark of late-cycle or transitional market regimes.

Whether Bitcoin can hold above US$105,000 in this environment depends not only on technicals but on broader macro confirmation. Sustained liquidity normalisation, stable dollar conditions, and continued institutional validation of blockchain infrastructure must all align. Until those pillars solidify, the relief rally, while welcome, should be approached with disciplined risk management and selective exposure.

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j