US economic fears and Bitcoin: Saylor’s US$16T reserve plan

US economic fears and Bitcoin: Saylor’s US$16T reserve plan

As I reflect on the complex interplay of global financial dynamics, US economic indicators, and the bold proposal for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve championed by Michael Saylor, I find myself intrigued and cautious about the implications for investors, markets, and the broader economy.

The recent pullback in global risk sentiment, driven by concerns over the US economy’s health, paints a picture of uncertainty that resonates deeply with the volatile movements in Bitcoin and other asset classes. Treasury yields have been falling across all maturities since mid-January as investors flock to the safety of fixed-income assets, signalling a shift toward risk aversion, with havens like the yen and Swiss franc gaining ground.

At the same time, the US dollar experiences its longest losing streak. This backdrop of faltering confidence in US economic outperformance and mixed signals from employment data—non-farm payrolls rising by 151,000 in February but the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1 per cent—creates a fragile foundation for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The data from China further complicates the global economic outlook. Consumer inflation falling below zero for the first time in 13 months, amid persistent deflationary pressures, underscores weakening demand and raises concerns about the health of the world’s second-largest economy. This, in turn, has a ripple effect on commodities like Brent crude, which hovers around US$70 per barrel despite a modest 1.3 per cent uptick, as weak Chinese economic data dampens oil demand expectations.

Meanwhile, US equity markets show resilience, with the MSCI US index edging up 0.5 per cent and Utilities outperforming at 1.9 per cent. Still, the slight rise in US Treasury yields—10-year at 4.30 per cent and 2-year at 4.00 per cent—and a continued decline in the U.S. Dollar Index by 0.2 per cent suggest lingering growth worries.

Gold, maintaining upward momentum toward US$3,000 per ounce despite a minor 0.1 per cent dip, reflects its role as a safe-haven asset amid this uncertainty. The mixed performance of Asian equities and the implied 0.4 per cent lower opening for US stock index futures further highlight the cautious mood permeating global markets.

Against this backdrop, Michael Saylor’s proposal for the US government to acquire 25 per cent of Bitcoin’s total supply—approximately 5.3 million BTC—by 2035 to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve feels both visionary and audacious. Presented at the White House Crypto Summit, where President Donald Trump endorsed a “never sell your Bitcoin” policy and issued an executive order prohibiting the sale of Bitcoin held in reserve, Saylor’s plan suggests a systematic acquisition of 5-25 per cent of Bitcoin’s daily supply between 2025 and 2035.

By that time, with 99 per cent of Bitcoin’s 21 million total supply already issued, the US would hold a significant portion of the cryptocurrency, potentially generating US$16 trillion to US$81 trillion by 2045, according to Saylor’s projections. He argues this could help reduce the national debt, which, as noted in recent World Bank reports, has ballooned globally due to crisis responses like those during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about sustainability, especially in emerging economies.

From my perspective, Saylor’s proposal is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it could catalyse broader institutional adoption of Bitcoin, as governments and corporations might follow the US lead, legitimising cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance. The executive order’s prohibition on selling Bitcoin could stabilise its long-term value by reducing supply pressure, potentially driving prices higher as demand grows.

This aligns with Saylor’s vision of Bitcoin as a “property in cyberspace,” akin to strategic reserves of gold, oil, or grain, as historical examples cited by Saylor—like the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve established in 1975—demonstrate.

The idea of the US asserting geopolitical influence through digital asset holdings, as suggested in reports from CoinDesk and Reuters, could position the country as a leader in setting global crypto standards, fostering innovation, and countering the dominance of other nations or entities in the digital economy.

However, the practicality and risks of this plan are significant. Bitcoin’s price volatility, evidenced by its recent 5 per cent drop to around US$80,000 following Trump’s executive order, underscores the challenges of integrating it into a national strategic reserve. As noted in the Bitcoin price decline, the disappointment among investors suggests skepticism about the reserve’s immediate impact, especially amid broader market uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s history of sharp corrections—like the 30 per cent drop from January 2025 levels, as mentioned in X posts from analysts like @JacobKinge—highlights its immaturity as a stable store of value compared to traditional assets. The crypto market’s “Extreme Fear” sentiment, reflected in the Fear & Greed Index dropping to levels seen during the 2020 COVID-19 crash and the 2022 market bottom, as reported by @inmortalcrypto and @APompliano, indicates that investor confidence is fragile, potentially exacerbated by large government purchases that could distort market dynamics.

Moreover, the logistics of acquiring such a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s supply—up to 25 per cent—over a decade are daunting. With a current market cap of over US$1.6 trillion (based on a US$80,000 price per BTC), purchasing 5.3 million BTC could cost upwards of US$424 billion, though Saylor’s gradual approach might mitigate price inflation.

However, as noted in Reuters’ coverage, large-scale government purchases could outsize Bitcoin’s price, especially given its relatively low trading volume compared to traditional markets. The inclusion of other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, as Trump hinted, adds further complexity, as smaller tokens like Cardano and XRP have even lower liquidity, potentially amplifying volatility. Cybersecurity risks, as mentioned in web analyses, also loom large, given Bitcoin wallets’ vulnerability to hacks, raising questions about the feasibility of securing such a reserve.

The broader economic context complicates matters further. The US government’s fiscal position, with rising national debt concerns outlined in the World Development Report 2022 and U.S. News articles on potential 2025 stock market risks, suggests that allocating billions to Bitcoin could be contentious.

Critics might argue that funds could be better directed toward infrastructure and social programs or to stabilise traditional markets amid faltering growth and persistent inflation, which remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 per cent, at 3 per cent, according to US News. The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates significantly, as noted in US Bank’s analysis of the yield curve, and the potential for recession signals—like an inverted yield curve, though currently fading—could heighten opposition to such a speculative investment.

On the positive side, Saylor’s comparison to historical US strategic purchases—like the Louisiana Purchase or Alaska acquisition, which yielded massive long-term returns—offers a compelling narrative. If Bitcoin follows a trajectory similar to its 2017 cycle, as suggested by @rovercrc on X, it could see exponential growth, justifying the reserve’s creation.

The Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, reinforced by the White House Crypto Summit and Saylor’s participation, could also attract institutional investors, boosting market confidence and regulatory clarity, as seen in the proposed Lummis bill for a Bitcoin reserve. This could align with broader trends of digital asset integration, as evidenced by El Salvador’s past Bitcoin adoption. However, its recent project cessation highlights the risks of over-reliance on crypto.

Ultimately, I see Saylor’s proposal as a high-stakes gamble with transformative potential but significant risks. The current market environment—marked by US economic uncertainty, global deflationary pressures, and Bitcoin’s volatility—suggests caution is warranted.

While the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could position the US as a crypto leader and generate enormous returns, it could also strain public finances, destabilise markets, and expose the government to unprecedented risks. I’d advocate for thorough public debate, rigorous economic modelling, and pilot programs to test the feasibility before committing to such an ambitious plan. The recent Bitcoin price drop to US$80,000, coupled with investor disappointment, serves as a stark reminder that crypto’s promise is tempered by its unpredictability, making Saylor’s vision both inspiring and, at this moment, daunting.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/us-economic-fears-and-bitcoin-saylors-us16t-reserve-plan-20250310/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Global markets in flux: Trump’s tariff pause and bitcoin reserve shake sentiment

Global markets in flux: Trump’s tariff pause and bitcoin reserve shake sentiment

There is a whirlwind of events shaping the financial landscape on March 7, 2025. Today’s developments—ranging from tariff flip-flops to monetary policy shifts and the intriguing evolution of cryptocurrency as a national asset—offer a fascinating glimpse into the interconnected forces driving risk sentiment worldwide. The question posed to me is to offer my point of view on this complex tapestry of economic and political threads, and I’m eager to dive in with a detailed, human perspective grounded in facts and careful analysis.

Let’s start with the tariff saga that’s once again grabbing headlines. President Donald Trump’s decision to pause tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods covered by the USMCA is a notable twist in his administration’s trade policy. This move, announced just days after imposing steep 25 per cent tariffs on most imports from these North American neighbours, reflects a pattern of unpredictability that’s keeping markets on edge.

The initial levies sparked swift retaliation from Canada, Mexico, and even China, igniting fears of a broader trade war. US equity markets felt the heat, with the S&P 500 sliding 1.8 per cent and the Nasdaq dropping 2.6 per cent as investors grappled with the uncertainty. The tech sector, in particular, seems to be bearing the brunt, not just from tariff jitters but also from disappointing guidance that’s failed to match the sky-high expectations set by Wall Street.

Add to that the intensifying global race in artificial intelligence—where US tech giants face stiffer competition from abroad—and it’s no surprise that risk appetite is faltering.

From my perspective, Trump’s tariff strategy is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it’s a bold attempt to flex American economic muscle and address trade imbalances, a cornerstone of his political brand. The pause on USMCA-compliant goods suggests a pragmatic nod to the importance of North American trade ties, perhaps in response to pressure from domestic industries reliant on these supply chains.

Yet, the broader market reaction—US stocks erasing post-election gains and Asian equities following suit—underscores the fragility of investor confidence. The whipsaw effect of these policy shifts is palpable, and I can’t help but wonder if this unpredictability is eroding the very economic stability Trump aims to bolster.

Businesses crave certainty to plan investments, and this rollercoaster approach risks stunting growth rather than spurring it. The International Monetary Fund’s warning of a “significant adverse economic impact” on Canada and Mexico if these tariffs persist only amplifies the stakes.

Turning to the bond market, the Treasury yield movements offer another layer of insight. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up 3 basis points to 4.29 per cent, signalling lingering concerns about inflation and the fiscal implications of Trump’s policies. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield dipped slightly to 3.97 per cent, hinting at expectations of a more cautious Federal Reserve stance in the near term.

The narrowing yield curve is something I’ve been watching closely—it’s a classic indicator of economic unease, suggesting investors are bracing for slower growth ahead. The US Dollar Index’s fourth consecutive day of decline, its longest losing streak since September, further reflects a market reassessing the greenback’s strength amid this turbulence. For me, this currency softness ties directly to the tariff uncertainty; if trade partners retaliate and global demand shifts, the dollar’s dominance could face a real test.

Commodities, too, are telling a story of cautious recalibration. Gold, often a haven in times of strife, eased 0.1 per cent as higher Treasury yields and profit-taking tempered its allure. Brent crude, hovering just above US$70 per barrel with a modest 0.2 per cent gain, seems stuck in a holding pattern, caught between geopolitical tensions and lackluster demand signals. I see these muted movements as a sign that traders are waiting for clearer cues—perhaps tonight’s nonfarm payrolls data will provide the spark they need to take a firmer stance.

The European Central Bank’s decision to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 per cent was hardly a surprise, but its messaging caught my attention. Describing monetary policy as “becoming meaningfully less restrictive” feels like a deliberate signal to markets that the ECB is ready to support a sluggish Eurozone economy.

The EUR/USD’s brief flirtation with a four-month high of 1.0854 before settling at 1.0784 suggests traders are still digesting the implications. European equities closing flat tells me there’s no euphoria here—just a steady, wait-and-see approach as the continent navigates its own challenges, including potential spillovers from US trade policies.

In Asia, the narrative shifts to wages and monetary policy, with Japan’s labor unions demanding a 4.5 per cent base pay rise for 2025—the highest in 32 years. This is a big deal. Inflation has clearly taken root, and workers are pushing back, which strengthens the case for the Bank of Japan to tighten policy further. I’ve long argued that Japan’s decades-long battle with deflation might finally be turning a corner, and this wage hike demand is a concrete step in that direction.

Asian equity indices, however, are a mixed bag, with Japan’s shares tumbling nearly two per cent while Chinese stocks retreat from a four-year high. The shadow of US tariff uncertainty looms large here, and I suspect regional markets will remain jittery until Trump’s trade stance crystallises.

Then there’s the cryptocurrency angle, which has injected a wild card into this already volatile mix. Bitcoin’s four per cent drop to US$86,000 after Trump’s executive order on a strategic reserve disappointed markets is a fascinating subplot. The order, paired with a stockpile of digital assets like XRP, Ether, SOL, and ADA, marks a historic acknowledgment of crypto’s role in national strategy.

But the caveat from White House crypto czar David Sacks—that no taxpayer funds will be used to buy these assets, relying instead on forfeiture proceedings—dashed hopes of a government-led buying spree. I find this pragmatic yet underwhelming. It’s a symbolic win for crypto advocates, but without active accumulation, the immediate market impact is limited. The slump in Bitcoin and other tokens reflects that reality.

South Korea’s response to this US move adds another dimension. At a seminar hosted by the Democratic Party, experts urged the country to integrate Bitcoin into its national reserves and issue a won-backed stablecoin. This isn’t just financial strategy—it’s geopolitical positioning. With the US, Switzerland, and Japan already advancing crypto adoption, South Korea risks falling behind if it doesn’t act.

The timing is critical, too, with a potential snap presidential election looming if President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment holds. I see this as a smart play: a Bitcoin reserve could diversify South Korea’s assets and bolster economic resilience, while a stablecoin could enhance its digital finance ecosystem. The global momentum is undeniable—Switzerland’s “Crypto Valley” and Japan’s yen-backed stablecoins are proof—and South Korea’s tech-savvy economy is well-suited to join the fray.

So, what’s my overarching take? We’re in a moment of profound transition. Geopolitical uncertainty, driven by Trump’s tariff dance and crypto ambitions, is clashing with traditional economic signals like yields, wages, and central bank moves. Markets are understandably skittish, and risk sentiment is likely to stay volatile until there’s more clarity—perhaps from tonight’s payrolls data or Trump’s upcoming White House Crypto Summit.

Personally, I’m skeptical of tariff-heavy policies delivering long-term gains; the collateral damage to trade partners and domestic confidence could outweigh the benefits. On crypto, I’m cautiously optimistic—governments embracing digital assets is a game-changer, but execution matters more than intent. For now, I’ll keep my eyes peeled and my notebook ready, because this story is far from over.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-in-flux-trumps-tariff-pause-and-bitcoin-reserve-shake-sentiment-20250307/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Global markets steady as PCE data softens, Trump names Bitcoin in strategic reserve

Global markets steady as PCE data softens, Trump names Bitcoin in strategic reserve

The financial world is buzzing with activity, and the interplay between macroeconomic data, geopolitical tensions, and groundbreaking policy moves like Trump’s proposed Crypto Strategic Reserve offers a rich tapestry to explore.

Let’s unpack this step by step, weaving together the facts, the data, and my own perspective on what it all means for investors, policymakers, and the average person trying to make sense of these turbulent times.

The latest US PCE inflation data provides a starting point, and it’s a cautiously optimistic one. In January, both headline and core PCE price indices rose by 0.3 per cent month-over-month, aligning neatly with economists’ expectations. This moderation in price pressures suggests that the Federal Reserve’s tightrope walk of managing inflation without choking economic growth might be paying off.

For context, the PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, and a 0.3 per cent increase is a far cry from the scorching prints we saw in 2022. It’s not a victory lap yet—annualised figures still hover above the Fed’s 2 per cent target—but it’s enough to steady global risk sentiment. Markets crave predictability, and this benign inflation print delivered just that.

The US Treasury market certainly took notice, posting its biggest monthly gain since July. Short-term yields dipped below 4 per cent, and the 10-year yield slid 5 basis points to 4.2 per cent, the lowest since mid-December. This rally in bonds reflects a growing belief that the Fed might ease up on rate hikes, or even pivot to cuts later in 2025 if the data keeps cooperating.

But don’t pop the champagne just yet. The geopolitical landscape is throwing curveballs that could unravel this fragile calm. Last Friday’s Oval Office meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was a disaster by all accounts.

What was supposed to be a constructive dialogue on a critical minerals deal—think lithium, cobalt, and other resources vital for batteries and tech—blew up spectacularly. The fallout scrapped the deal and dashed hopes of ceasefire talks in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. This isn’t just diplomatic theater; it’s a blow to supply chains and energy transition plans. Ukraine’s mineral wealth could have bolstered US efforts to reduce reliance on China, but now that door’s slammed shut.

The implications ripple outward: heightened uncertainty, potential supply shortages, and a reminder that geopolitics can trump economic fundamentals in a heartbeat. Markets shrugged it off for now—MSCI US climbed 1.6 per cent, with Financials up 2.1 per cent and Consumer Discretionary gaining 1.8 per cent—but I’m not convinced this resilience will hold if tensions escalate further.

Switching gears to Trump’s bombshell announcement, the Crypto Strategic Reserve is the wildcard everyone’s talking about. On Sunday, Trump took to Truth Social to declare that Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano would form the backbone of a “strategic national digital assets stockpile.”

Prices of these tokens soared—some reports suggest double-digit gains within hours—and the crypto community is ablaze with speculation. This isn’t a spur-of-the-moment tweet; it builds on an executive order Trump signed in January to explore such a reserve. His framing is classic Trump: a middle finger to the Biden administration’s “corrupt attacks” on crypto, paired with a promise to “elevate” the industry.

It’s a bold move, and I’ll admit, it’s got my journalist senses tingling. On one hand, legitimising crypto at this level could turbocharge adoption. Analysts at State Street are already predicting that crypto ETFs will surpass precious metals in North America by year-end, becoming the third-largest ETF asset class. That’s a seismic shift, and a government-backed reserve could accelerate it.

But let’s pump the brakes and dig deeper. What does a “Crypto Strategic Reserve” even mean in practice? Is the US government buying up billions in Bitcoin and altcoins to sit on them like a digital Fort Knox? Trump’s post didn’t specify quantities or timelines, which leaves room for skepticism.

The logistics are daunting—securing wallets, managing volatility, and navigating regulatory minefields. And why these five coins? Bitcoin and Ethereum are no-brainers; they’re the blue-chip cryptos with the deepest liquidity. XRP, Solana, and Cardano, though, raise eyebrows. XRP’s tangled legal history with the SEC, Solana’s past network outages, and Cardano’s slower development pace don’t scream “strategic” to me.

Posts on X suggest a market frenzy—Cardano reportedly jumped 60 per cent, XRP 25per cent, Solana 20 per cent—but I wonder if this is more hype than substance. Trump’s a showman, and this could be a populist play to win over the crypto crowd without a clear endgame. Still, the signal is powerful: the US might be positioning itself as a crypto superpower, daring others to follow suit.

Across the Pacific, China’s stirring the pot too. The official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for February ticked up, a relief after the Lunar New Year slowdown from January 28 to February 4. Factories are humming again, and services are rebounding. But peek under the hood, and the picture’s murkier—sub-indices like new orders and employment hint at fragility.

All eyes are on the “Two Sessions” kicking off March 4, where Beijing’s expected to unveil fiscal stimulus. Investors are salivating for measures to juice domestic demand and supercharge AI, especially after Xi’s symposium with business leaders two weeks ago. I’m cautiously optimistic here; China’s got the firepower to move markets, but execution’s the rub. Past promises have sometimes fizzled, and with Trump’s tariffs looming—10 per cent on Chinese goods starting March 4, alongside hikes on Mexico and Canada—Beijing’s got a tightrope of its own to walk.

Speaking of tariffs, they’re casting a shadow over energy markets. Brent crude slipped 1.2 per cent, reflecting fears that trade barriers will dampen global demand. It’s a logical worry: higher costs on imports could slow manufacturing and consumer spending, hitting oil consumption.

The US Dollar Index, meanwhile, edged up 0.4 per cent, flexing its safe-haven muscle, while gold dipped 0.7 per cent. That’s a classic risk-off tilt, even as equities hold firm. Asian equity indices opened mostly higher today, but US futures suggest a mixed start. It’s a market caught between hope (inflation cooling, stimulus hopes) and dread (geopolitics, trade wars).

The week ahead is a gauntlet. US payrolls and ISM data will test the economy’s pulse, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote could drop hints on rate cuts. A barrage of Fedspeak will keep traders on edge, and the ECB’s policy rate decision across the pond adds another layer. Trump’s State of the Union on March 4—coinciding with the tariff rollout—will be must-watch TV. Will he double down on the crypto reserve or pivot to red-meat nationalism? My gut says he’ll lean into both, keeping markets guessing.

This is a pivotal moment, but it’s laced with uncertainty. The PCE data and Treasury rally signal a soft landing might be in reach, yet geopolitics and tariffs could derail it. Trump’s crypto gambit is audacious—potentially transformative if it’s more than bluster—but I’d wager it’s half-baked until we see details.

China’s stimulus could be a game-changer, but only if it delivers. For investors, it’s a time to stay nimble: ride the crypto wave, hedge against trade shocks, and watch the Fed like hawks. As an observer, I’m thrilled to chronicle this chaos—it’s where the real stories live. But as a global citizen, I can’t shake the feeling we’re one tweet or tantrum away from a very different market wrap.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-steady-as-pce-data-softens-trump-names-bitcoin-in-strategic-reserve-20250303/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j