BTC / USD forecast: Can bitcoin reverse downward trend as crypto winter bites?

BTC / USD forecast: Can bitcoin reverse downward trend as crypto winter bites?

Since its November 2021 all-time high, Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, has lost over 70% of its value, in line with the broad cryptocurrency markets. The harsh crypto winter was sparked by surging inflation, risk-off sentiment amid recession fears and the crash of the TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin.

Will the cryptocurrency pioneer ever resurface? We take a look at the key factors driving the BTC/USD forecast in 2023 and beyond.

What is BTC/USD?

BTC/USD is the exchange rate of bitcoin against the US currency. BTC to USD measures how many USD are required to purchase one bitcoin.

Created in 2009, Bitcoin, the first ever decentralised digital currency, acts as a peer-to-peer payments system. It uses no central authorities or banks to manage transactions, which are instead organised “collectively by the network”.

The cryptocurrency was invented  by an anonymous person or group of people under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. It has since established itself as one of the most popular digital assets. The first ever BTC token, the so-called genesis block, was mined in January 2009.

Bitcoin’s blockchain uses a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism, which is secured by miners verifying BTC transactions in exchange for BTC reward. The process is known as crypto mining.

These rewards are cut in half after every 210,000 blocks are mined, or approximately every four years, in halving events, thus reducing the amount of overall BTC coins in circulation and raising the cryptocurrency’s price by cutting supply.

The most recent halving event took place on 11 May 2021, when bitcoin’s block reward was reduced to 6.25BTC. The next halving event is estimated to take place in 2024.

In addition to being a “peer-to-peer version of electronic cash” bitcoin is also now used as a store of value. Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million tokens.

BTC/USD price history

It has taken BTC to USD around eight years to surge past $1,000 since its launch in 2009. In 2017, the cryptocurrency saw a good run, rising by 1,600% within a year from $1,044.4 at the start of January 2017 to $17,760.3 by 20 December 2017 – a then all-time high.

However, a steep sell-off at the start of 2018 interfered, bringing the bitcoin’s price down to $7,637.86 by 8 February 2018. BTC continued to decline falling to $3,000 by 10 December 2018.

The cryptocurrency peaked once again in the beginning of July 2019, surpassing $12,000 for a brief time before losing over 58% of its value and dropping to $5,000 by 13 March 2020.

BTC/USD RATE 2017-2022

In 2021, the cryptocurrency enjoyed another bull run, the biggest in its history. By 8 January 2021, the token was valued at around $ 39,000. On 16 April 2021, bitcoin reached its first peak at $63,258.51 – a surge of around 62%. BTC’s price continued to rise, reaching the all-time high of $67,549.74 on 9 November 2021.

In 2022, the coin has been experiencing one of the harshest crypto winters yet, losing nearly 72% since the November 2021 highs, and is currently (12 October) hovering at $19,000.

What’s shaping the BTC/USD forecast?

The cryptocurrency market has been affected by a number of factors in 2022 such as with the war in Ukraine, the collapse of the TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin and rising inflation. Peter Eberle, president and chief investment officer of Castle Funds, told Capital.com:

“The first half of 2022 was horrible for equity, bond and crypto markets. A confluence of macro factors such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US Policy makers’ slow realisation that inflation was real, then the aggressive pivot to higher interest rates, supply chain issues due to China’s Covid polices all led to a steep sell off across markets.”

Eberle added that Terra’s “meltdown”, which led to the subsequent fall of its sister cryptocurrency, LUNA, “created cascading liquidations across multiple platforms”, affecting not only the BTC/USD price but also several hedge funds, including Three Arrow Capital and Celsius Network.

On 9 June, bitcoin briefly traded above $31,000, however, this soon turned into a selloff, which saw the cryptocurrency lose over 90% of its minor gains, falling to $19,000 10 days later. Since then, BTC has been fluctuating, trading between $23,000 and $19,000.

“At the end of the 2nd quarter many in the industry were waiting for the proverbial ‘next shoe to drop’, but fortunately things calmed down,” Eberle noted.

Anndy Lian, chief digital advisor at the Mongolian Productivity Organisation and author of NFT: From Zero to Hero, said that bitcoin’s price depends on the outcomes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meetings and decisions on monetary policy tightening, as well as latest inflation readings such as Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

“However, I am not pessimistic. The mining companies have endured tough times. Despite the high hash rate, bitcoin’s price has not significantly increased. This signals that the miners are not piling the network to obtain big gains on bitcoin, they are confident that the mining business will do well now that the network has proven staying power.”

Historically, October has been a good month for cryptocurrencies, with bitcoin’s price change averaging at 14.6% gain in October since 2011, Capital.com’s seasonality research showed. Yet this year proves to be different.  Castle Fund’s Eberle noted:

“The third quarter of 2022 showed consolidation in the crypto market while equities and bonds continue to slump. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 6.2%, Bitcoin dropped 2% but saw significantly lower volatility and the broader crypto market capitalization increased by 8.5%.”

Bitcoin to US dollar forecasts are currently focusing on macro events, Eberle added, specifically the Fed’s interest decisions, the future outcomes of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US midterm elections that are due to take place on 8 November. In addition, Eberle added some historical outlook concerning bitcoin’s past halving events:

“In 2015 BTC bottomed 547 days before the halving and in 2018 is occurred 517 before. The next halving is estimated to happen in April or May of 2024 so if history repeats we should be nearing the beginning of the next bull market.”

BTC/USD forecast 2022 and beyond

Despite the latest downward price action, algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor gave a bullish BTC/USD forecast at the time of writing (12 October). The site noted that BTC was “a very good long-term investment”.

Based on its analysis of past price performance, WalletInvestor predicted that BTC/USD could trade at $25,373.90 in 2023 and surge to $47,496.74 in 2027.

DigitalCoinPrice supported the positive BTC/USD forecast but saw a speedier pace of growth in the following years, expecting the cryptocurrency to reach $24,206.47 by the end of 2022 and $43,340.43 by the end of 2023.

Its BTC/USD forecast for 2025 showed the cryptocurrency reaching $77,238.07 on average and $94,929.40 in 2027. The platform’s long-term BTC/USD forecast for 2030 expected the cryptocurrency to surge to $266,189.92 on average.

Lian did share the bullish sentiment on BTC to USD forecast:

“Bitcoin price hovers around $19,400, up 1.9% in the last week. Zooming out, it has gained 1% in value for the past 30 days. Unless we see the S&P 500 go down to 3200, bitcoin can go below the $13,000 region, else I think it will continue to trend sideways for the next few weeks.”

However, Lian noted that a positive aspect to highlight would be bitcoin’s hash rate which continues to surge.

Note that BTC/USD predictions can be wrong. Analysts’ and algorithm-based predictions shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research.

Always conduct your own due diligence on the stock before trading, looking at the latest news, a wide range of analyst commentary, technical and fundamental analysis. Note that past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade money you cannot afford to lose.

 

Source: https://capital.com/btc-usd-forecast-dollar-bitcoin-price

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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XRP to USD forecast: Can Ripple price finally reverse long-term downward trend?

XRP to USD forecast: Can Ripple price finally reverse long-term downward trend?

Ripple is one of the most talked about coin.

– What has been affecting the Ripple coin price recently?

The on-going, never ending and changing lawsuit is one of the key uncertainties. SEC has a different angled strategy against Ripple through Wahi complaint. This added insider trading allegations against 2 other Coinbase employees and putting 9 other cryptocurrencies as securities. If the SEC wins the case, this would set a precedent and would cause more problems for the crypto industry as a whole.

This outcome for Ripple might affect their On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service. And if U.S. banks are not going with the ODL plans, this will then weaken Ripple’s CBDC setup and investors will not be very happy.

– Where could the token be headed in the future

According to CoinMarketCap price prediction function, 1222 users voted and predicted that the price of XRP will be around $0.4905 by 30 September 2022. This is a 47.86% increase in the current price. I must say that the supporters are still considerably bullish on the coin and hope they can get out of the lawsuit quickly.

I am more realistic at this point. I hope to see more signed partnerships that are actually useful, not for PR purposes and see more real implementations in a larger manner, not purely news on how they help streamline Japan-Thailand money transfers. I hope to see more details. I am sure the investors at large want to see more too.

 

XRP to USD forecast: Can Ripple price finally reverse long-term downward trend?

 

Ripple (XRP/USD) is among the top 10 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation. Dubbed a “better alternative to bitcoin”, Ripple aims to futurise global payments.

However, in recent years the company has been caught in the midst of a US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing, with its native cryptocurrency, XRP, struggling to reach past highs…for over four years.

Down by 90.3 % since its 2018 all-time high of $3.3778, at the time of writing (5 September) the XRP to USD exchange rate stood at $0.3275. Can the token repeat the record levels, and what is the latest news on the SEC case?

What is XRP/USD and Ripple?

Ripple was created in 2011 by engineers David Schwartz, Jed McCaleb and Arthur Britto. They began developing the XRP Ledger (XRPL),  a decentralised, permissionless, open-source, public blockchain.

The Ripple platform is a payment settlement system and currency exchange network using XRP Ledger Consensus Protocol. The network prides itself in its transaction speed, which according to its website, can take between three and five seconds and has low transaction fees that are “typically” under $0.01.

Ripple’s distributed consensus mechanism uses designated servers called validators, who have to agree on the order and outcome of transactions on the platform to enable them. Transactions are made in XRP coins, the platform’s native cryptocurrency.

The token can be sent to other users directly without the need of a central intermediary. XRP coins are freely exchanged on the open market and used in the real world for enabling cross-border payments and microtransactions.

Upon the token’s launch, XRPL’s founders gifted 80 billion XRP to the company. Ripple has since put the majority in escrow. As of August 2022, 44bn tokens remain in escrow.

 

What is your sentiment on XRP/USD?

XRP/USD price analysis

Unlike many of its rival cryptocurrencies that gained popularity in late 2021, XRP achieved its first success in the early months of 2018 as it was teaming up with a number of legacy financial institutions, like American Express and Santander. The token spiked to the all-time high of $3.3778 in January 2018, yet the rally was short-lived as XRP fell below $1 in late February. XRP to USD chart, September 2013 – September 2022

After two years of fluctuating between $0.60 and $0.10, the XRP coin price rebounded to $1.8391 on 14 April 2021 amid wider cryptocurrency bull run.

Throughout the remainder of 2021, the XRP to USD chart suffered fluctuations, rising as high as $1.3894 at the start of September 2021 and dropping as low as $0.7993 by mid-December.

At the start of 2022, XRP was holding steady at $0.80. It dropped to $0.30 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and surging inflation started to affect broader cryptocurrency sentiment. As of 5 September, the current exchange rate of XRP to USD stood at $0.3275.

 

SEC’s case against Ripple

In December 2020, Ripple found itself in the midst of a SEC filing, which accused the company’s top executives, co-founder Christian Larsen and CEO Bradley Garlinghouse, of misleading XRP investors by selling $1.3bn worth of coins without reporting to the commission. The SEC had also accused the executives of profiting from the trade by around $600m.

In March 2022, the court denied the SEC’s request to strike Ripple’s fair notice defence, which argued that contrary to the case, the company did not receive a fair warning that its sales of XRP coins could be in violation of security laws.

In July 2022, Ripple won a ruling that will allow the company to access emails from the SEC about a 2018 speech where a former official declared that Ethereum was not a security. The evidence could help Ripple in arguing that XRP cannot be labelled as such. The SEC, however, continued to battle this ruling and filed a brief arguing that the speech drafts “are not relevant to any claim or defense in this case”.

On 19 August, Ripple filed a motion to seal the identities of non-parties, some company employees and the personal financial information of employees. The SEC replied, clarifying that in doing so, it “does not concede that the above categories of information should properly be sealed for summary judgement briefing, and reserves its rights to oppose similar sealing requests for summary judgement.”

The judge granted the SEC’s request to file a 90-page long reply to its motion that seeks to exclude the testimony of Ripple Labs’ witnesses.

The outcome of the court proceedings could remain the key factor affecting the movements on the XRP chart. As of 5 September, analysts and investors await 9 September, when both parties are expected to seal any portion of the filings together with proposed redaction.

Responses to the motion must be submitted by 16 September. Motions for summary judgement are expected by 15 September,  and any opposition to that must be received by 18 October and answered by 15 November. The coming months will be of great importance for Ripple enthusiasts.

“The ongoing, never ending and changing lawsuit is one of the key uncertainties. SEC has a different angled strategy against Ripple through Wahi complaint. This added insider trading allegations against two other Coinbase employees and put nine other cryptocurrencies as securities,” said Anndy Lian, chief digital advisor of the Mongolian Productivity Organisation.
“If the SEC wins the case, this would set a precedent and would cause more problems for the crypto industry as a whole,” he told Capital.com.

On 21 July, the SEC filed a complaint against Ishan Wahi,  Coinbase’s manager in its assets and investing products division, and two other employees, accusing them of insider trading and securities fraud. In the filing, the commission noted that the nine coins Wahi and other defendants traded were “crypto asset securities”.

 

XRP to USD forecast for 2022 and beyond

Despite the latest downward price action, algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor gave a bullish XRP to USD crypto exchange rate prediction as of 5 September. The site noted that XRP is “an outstanding long-term investment”, adding that it has a long-term earning potential amounting to 284.71%.

Based on its analysis of past price performance, Wallet Investor predicted that the token could trade at $0.517 in 2023 and reach $1.258 by 2027.

DigitalCoinPrice supported the positive XRP to USD future exchange rate forecast at the time of writing, expecting the token to grow to $0.48 by the end of 2022 and reach $1.50 by the end of 2025.

By the end of 2027, the site predicted that the exchange rate of XPR to USD could reach $1.63. The website’s long-term forecast for the token showed that the cryptocurrency could surge to $4.63 by 2030.

Mark Fidelman, founder of SmartBlocks, was bullish on XRP to USD exchange rate, yet noted that the outcome of the SEC case will play a crucial role in shaping Ripple’s future.

“If [Ripple wins] the lawsuit, it should be heading back up to over a buck by the end of year, maybe more…It’s more effective and more efficient than anything that the banks are doing, so it should scare the banks and should help crypto,” he told Capital.com.

Note that predictions about the future of XRP can be wrong. Forecasts and analyst expectations shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence looking at the latest news, price charts.  technical and fundamental analysis.

Remember that past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade money that you cannot afford to lose.

 

Source: https://capital.com/xrp-usd-forecast-dollar-ripple-price

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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