Tag Archives: risks

Why institutional money is buying crypto while geopolitical risks mount

Why institutional money is buying crypto while geopolitical risks mount

Bitcoin ETFs pulled in US$272.59M in net flows while Ethereum products added US$79.25M, creating a steady bid that absorbs supply even as retail participation remains muted. This institutional backbone matters because it changes the market’s texture. Instead of volatile swings driven by sentiment alone, we now see structural buying that cushions dips and supports grinds higher.

The data confirms this pattern, showing that large wallets continue to accumulate, including one notable purchase of 35,000 ETH worth US$80M. When whales and institutions align on the buy side, the path of least resistance tilts upward, provided macro conditions do not suddenly shift.

Regulatory clarity is adding fuel to this constructive setup. SEC Chair Paul Atkins recently outlined a framework that categorises tokens into five distinct buckets, separating digital commodities, collectibles, tools, and payment tokens from those that qualify as securities.

This approach, paired with a separation doctrine that allows tokens to shed their securities status once the issuer’s obligations end, gives projects a clearer compliance roadmap. The proposed innovation exemption creates a caged environment in which qualified firms can issue and trade tokenised securities on-chain with lighter requirements, while longer-term rules take shape.

For the first time, tokenised equities, bonds, and real-world assets have a defined path to trade on public or permissioned blockchains in the United States, rather than migrate offshore. This matters because it reduces regulatory uncertainty, one of the largest overhangs on crypto valuations, and invites traditional capital to engage with on-chain markets under familiar legal guardrails.

Crypto does not trade in isolation. The market currently shows an 83 per cent correlation with the S&P 500, reflecting a shared sensitivity to interest rate expectations and liquidity conditions. Equities retreated recently as geopolitical tensions flared around the April 22, 2026, ceasefire deadline between the United States and Iran. The Dow Jones fell 292.96 points to close at 49,149.60, the S&P 500 dropped 45.09 points to 7,064.05, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 144.43 points to finish at 24,259.96.

Oil prices surged above US$90 per barrel after reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, while gold tumbled 3.1 per cent following news of a ceasefire extension. These moves ripple through crypto because institutional portfolios rebalance across asset classes. When macro uncertainty rises, even crypto’s structural buyers may pause, testing the resilience of the current uptrend.

From a technical perspective, the market sits at an inflection point. The US$2.61T level represents the recent swing high and a key resistance zone. A decisive break above that mark, especially if accompanied by continued ETF inflows, would signal strong momentum and open the door to further gains.

On the downside, the US$2.48T level, corresponding to the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement, acts as critical support. A close below that threshold would suggest the rally is losing steam and could trigger a deeper pullback. Given the current correlation with equities, crypto traders must monitor both ETF flow reports and macroeconomic data releases, including the US EIA Petroleum Status Report and the 20-year bond auction, for clues on near-term direction.

I see a cautiously bullish setup with clear dependencies. The institutional bid via ETFs provides a solid floor, and the emerging regulatory framework reduces one of the largest uncertainties plaguing the sector. The tight link to traditional markets means crypto remains exposed to shifts in rate expectations, geopolitical shocks, and equity volatility.

The innovation exemption, if implemented with practical flexibility, could unlock a new wave of tokenisation activity, bringing real-world assets on-chain and deepening liquidity. But execution matters. If the final rules prove too restrictive, activity may continue migrating to more permissive jurisdictions.

For now, the confluence of steady ETF demand, clearer regulatory pathways, and strategic accumulation by large holders creates a supportive environment. The question is whether this foundation can withstand macro headwinds as the market tests the US$2.61T resistance. If ETF inflows persist and equities stabilise, the path toward higher valuations remains open. If not, the US$2.48T support will be the line in the sand that determines whether this rally extends or fades.

Investors should also monitor the confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, as monetary policy expectations continue to shape risk appetite across asset classes. The market currently prices in a high probability of a rate cut by December 2026, though persistent energy-driven inflation may complicate this path.

Singapore’s March CPI data for general households, released today, adds another layer of global macro context. These fixed income and inflation signals feed directly into the liquidity narrative that underpins both equity and crypto valuations. When yields rise, as the 10-year Treasury note did to approximately 4.30 per cent on April 21, growth-sensitive assets often face pressure. Crypto’s 83 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 means it absorbs these crosscurrents quickly.

The regulatory framework’s 5-bucket taxonomy deserves closer attention because it draws a bright line between utility-focused tokens and security-like instruments. Most layer 1 protocols, DeFi projects, and payment tokens now have a clearer path to operate without triggering securities registration, provided they meet the stated criteria.

At the same time, the SEC is building a regulated home for tokenised stocks and bonds, which could attract traditional finance players who previously stayed on the sidelines. This dual-track approach recognises that crypto is not monolithic. Some tokens function as commodities, others like software tools, and a subset behaves like equity or debt. By sorting them accordingly, policymakers reduce the blanket uncertainty that has long suppressed institutional participation.

Whale accumulation patterns reinforce the constructive technical setup. The purchase of 35,000 ETH worth US$80M signals confidence among sophisticated holders who often move ahead of broader trends. When these actors add exposure during consolidation phases, they frequently anticipate a breakout.

Combined with daily ETF inflows of US$272.59M for Bitcoin and US$79.25M for Ethereum, the market enjoys a two-layered bid: one from regulated investment vehicles and another from private large-scale buyers. This dynamic does not guarantee uninterrupted gains, but it does raise the threshold for a meaningful correction. Sellers must overcome both institutional and whale demand to push prices lower, a task that becomes harder if macro conditions remain supportive.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-institutional-money-is-buying-crypto-while-geopolitical-risks-mount-20260422/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

How the Gulf conflict recast risks for Asian investors in Dubai

How the Gulf conflict recast risks for Asian investors in Dubai
Asian digital entrepreneurs that once saw Dubai as a safe, well-connected base for global expansion are now reassessing that view after the US-Israel war on Iran exposed vulnerabilities in the city’s appeal as a financial and technology hub.
For many investors and founders from India, China and Southeast Asia, the strain is not just about physical security but also about what disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has revealed about liquidity, credit and market confidence.

Dubai has in recent years positioned itself as a premier global hub for digital businesses focused on technologies such as artificial intelligence, fintech and blockchain, helped by policies including 100 per cent foreign ownership and tax incentives.

But the Iran conflict – during which Tehran has targeted cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi with drone and missile attacks – has left many businesses facing not only a security threat, but also higher borrowing costs and greater uncertainty over capital flows, according to analysts.

Last month, the central bank of the United Arab Emirates announced a “resilience package” to provide liquidity support and bolster the banking sector, but analysts said the broader ecosystem still faced challenges in maintaining liquidity and building resilient supply chains.

“For technology companies, the risks are less about physical infrastructure and more about financial infrastructure, especially as broader tensions affect market confidence or key routes like the Strait of Hormuz,” said Rafiza Ghazali, managing director for consumer banking at Fasset, a banking and investment platform focused on emerging markets.

The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war sent oil prices soaring by 60 per cent to around US$100 per barrel within a month and spurred severe liquidity crunches in the freight market. It also increased operational risks and regulatory compliance challenges.

While a shaky US-Iran ceasefire has allayed some investor concerns, uncertainty remains about whether this pact will hold and lead to a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

“While it is difficult to precisely predict outcomes at this stage, any constraints are likely to be episodic and sentiment-driven rather than sustained,” Ghazali said. “I would view this more as a stress test rather than a structural shift.”

The demand for cross-border financial services would remain over the longer term, he said, adding that companies that had built strong fundamentals would remain resilient.

Dubai has attracted substantial amounts of Asian capital in recent years, with India the biggest single source of foreign direct investment into the emirate in 2024, accounting for 21.5 per cent of total inflows, according to official data. Dubai said total FDI reached 52.3 billion dirhams (US$14 billion) last year.

Many Asian financial and digital firms now use Dubai as a base for expansion across the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, often setting up in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), the city’s main financial hub. DIFC says it serves a 77-country region and hosts more than 1,670 innovation and tech firms.

Some have expanded their presence there in recent months, including India’s Juspay, which opened its regional headquarters in DIFC in February, and Singapore-based Dymon Asia Capital, which opened its first Middle East office in Dubai in late 2024.

The war with Iran has also disrupted critical transport infrastructure, with Dubai International Airport temporarily suspending some operations after drone incidents and Jebel Ali Port, one of the world’s busiest, facing stoppages after attack-related damage and debris.

“Most critically, digital infrastructure such as data centres and cloud services has been directly targeted, threatening service continuity,” said Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based adviser to governments on blockchain and IT.

The six-week conflict was already beginning to shift sentiment among a section of Asian investors, though most saw the situation as a temporary setback rather than a permanent strategic shift, he added.

“Investor sentiment has shifted towards capital flight, with some wealthy Asians relocating liquid assets to Singapore or Hong Kong,” he said, adding that other locations such as India and select European gateways had also gained attention.

Business resilience

Lian said the overall resilience of the business ecosystem for investors in the UAE remained strong, although a prolonged conflict could amplify risks for Asian investment portfolios in the region.

“At this stage, you’re realistically looking at 20 to 40 per cent of previously accessible capital becoming difficult to access,” said Raj Kapoor, president of the India Blockchain Alliance, adding that this would affect start-ups at a growth stage, real estate players and venture capital firms in particular.

“If the conflict is short-lived, markets would normalise quickly and most of this capital ‘comes back,’ he said.

The key issue was not any single threat, but how multiple risks occurring simultaneously due to geopolitics and security exposure were amplifying impact and uncertainty, Kapoor said.

“Dubai has long been viewed as insulated from regional conflict, but recent Iranian threats and strikes targeting Gulf infrastructure, including energy assets and data centres, have tested that assumption,” he added.

Investors remain hopeful that the situation will eventually stabilise.

Sunyong Hwang, CEO of Abu Dhabi-based blockchain company NEXPACE, said the Gulf region had built itself into a meaningful destination for Asian digital entrepreneurs and investors because of regulatory clarity and government-led digital investment with a long-term vision.

“Geopolitical uncertainty tests those foundations, and we continue to monitor developments closely,” he said.

“From our perspective, however, our global headquarter presence in Abu Dhabi has always been rooted in long-term strategic orientation. That calculus does not change in the face of short-term disruption.”

 

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3349694/how-gulf-conflict-recast-risks-asian-investors-dubai?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Musk, markets, and money: Trade risks meet crypto rewards

Musk, markets, and money: Trade risks meet crypto rewards

The world is watching as the July 9 deadline for trade deals approaches, casting a shadow of uncertainty over global markets. Meanwhile, a mix of economic data, policy decisions, and influential voices, like that of Elon Musk, are shaping a complex narrative.

Let’s explore what’s happening in the market right now, weaving together the threads of trade tensions, market performances, and emerging trends in crypto, all while offering my perspective on what these developments might mean for investors and the global economy.

Global risk sentiment and the trade deadline

The global risk sentiment is palpably tentative as the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations looms. This date marks the end of a 90-day tariff pause, a period during which the United States and its trading partners have been working to finalise agreements.

On July 7, President Donald Trump announced that the first 12 letters would be sent to these partners, signalling that new tariff rates potentially ranging from 10 per cent to 70 per cent could take effect as early as August 1 if no deals are reached. This wide range of possible tariffs introduces significant uncertainty, as the final rates will depend on the outcomes of these negotiations, which remain fluid and unpredictable.

The threat of tariffs could pressure trading partners into concessions, potentially strengthening the US position in global trade. On the other hand, the prospect of higher tariffs risks disrupting supply chains, increasing costs for consumers, and slowing economic growth, particularly for export-dependent economies.

Markets hate uncertainty, and the lack of clarity around these tariffs is keeping investors on edge, contributing to a cautious global mood. As the deadline nears, every statement from the White House and every response from trading partners will be scrutinised for hints of what’s to come.

US markets: A pre-holiday boost

Turning to the US, equity markets were closed on July 4 for Independence Day, but their performance prior to the holiday offers a glimpse into investor sentiment. On July 3, Wall Street ended in the green, with the S&P 500 rising 0.8 per cent , the Nasdaq climbing one per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advancing 0.8 per cent.

This uptick was driven by a stronger-than-expected employment report, which likely bolstered confidence in the US economy’s resilience. Robust job growth suggests that consumer spending, a key driver of economic activity, remains robust, providing a buffer against external pressures, such as trade tensions.

However, the holiday closure meant that US investors couldn’t immediately react to subsequent developments, such as Trump’s trade letter announcement or moves in Asian markets. US equity index futures have since pointed to a lower opening, suggesting that these global uncertainties may temper the optimism sparked by the employment data.

In my view, the US market’s pre-holiday strength is a positive signal, but it’s not immune to the broader risk-off tone emerging elsewhere. Investors will likely reassess their positions as trading resumes, weighing domestic economic health against international risks.

Asian markets: A risk-off tone prevails

Closer to home in Asia, the mood is decidedly more cautious. Major equity indices have posted declines, reflecting a risk-off sentiment among investors. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 1.99 per cent, Taiwan’s TWSE dropped 0.73 per cent, Thailand’s SET declined 0.64 per cent, and Hong Kong’s HSI also shed 0.64 per cent.

These markets, heavily tied to global trade, are particularly vulnerable to the spectre of US tariffs. For instance, South Korea and Taiwan rely heavily on exports of electronics and semiconductors. At the same time, Hong Kong serves as a financial hub that is sensitive to shifts in global capital flows.

Commodities: OPEC+ shakes up oil markets

In the commodities space, oil markets are grappling with their own set of dynamics. Over the weekend, OPEC+, the alliance of oil-producing nations, agreed to boost production by 548,000 barrels per day starting next month, a move that exceeded market expectations.

As a result, Brent crude prices dipped 0.6 per cent to settle at US$71 per barrel. This increase in supply comes at a time when demand uncertainties, fuelled by trade tensions, are already in play.

This production hike is a strategic play by OPEC+ to maintain market share, but it’s a gamble. If global growth slows due to tariffs, the additional supply could outstrip demand, pushing oil prices lower and squeezing revenues for producers. Conversely, if trade talks resolve favourably and economic activity picks up, this move could stabilise prices and prevent a supply crunch.

For now, the drop in Brent crude signals bearish sentiment, and it’s a development that bears watching. Lower oil prices could ease inflation pressures but might also signal broader economic weakness.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin bounces back

Shifting gears to the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has staged a notable recovery, gaining nearly five per cent. The rally is partly attributed to a weakening of selling pressure from Grayscale, a major institutional player whose actions often sway the market. Beyond Bitcoin, optimism is spreading to smaller cryptocurrencies and crypto-related stocks, with Coinbase shares rising nearly three per cent and MicroStrategy jumping nine per cent.

I see this divergence between US and Asian markets as a telling sign of regional fault lines. While the US benefits from a domestic economy that can weather some external shocks, Asia’s export-driven growth model leaves it more exposed to trade disruptions. The sharp declines in these indices suggest that investors are bracing for a worst-case scenario, higher tariffs, and a potential slowdown in global demand. If trade talks falter, the risk-off tone could deepen, with ripple effects across emerging markets.

What’s driving this resurgence? I’d argue it’s a combination of market-specific factors and broader catalysts. The Grayscale reprieve is a technical boost, but the bigger story is the anticipation surrounding “Crypto Week” in the US Congress, set for July 14 to 18.

Lawmakers are poised to debate several pivotal bills, including the Clarity Act, which aims to define rules for crypto trading and investment, and the Stablecoin Bill (also known as the Genius Act), intended to regulate dollar-backed stablecoins. There’s also the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which seeks to block government digital currencies that could encroach on privacy.

In my opinion, “Crypto Week” could be a game-changer. Clear regulations have long been the missing piece for institutional adoption of crypto. If these bills pass, they could unlock fresh capital inflows, legitimising the asset class in the eyes of traditional finance.

The recent US$5 trillion debt ceiling increase adds fuel to this fire; more liquidity in the system historically lifts risk assets like Bitcoin. I’m cautiously optimistic that these developments could spark a breakout, especially if the sideways price action we’ve seen lately is indeed a prelude to a larger move.

Elon Musk and the America Party

No market analysis would be complete without mentioning Elon Musk, whose influence continues to ripple across financial landscapes. Musk recently declared that his newly formed America Party will fully support Bitcoin, doubling down with a statement on X that “Fiat is hopeless.”

This follows a public feud with Donald Trump and the launch of his political entity, born from a poll where 80 per cent of his followers backed the idea of a centrist party. Musk’s pro-Bitcoin stance isn’t new, but tying it to a political platform amplifies its reach.

I find Musk’s move fascinating and polarising. His sway over markets, as evidenced by Tesla stock surges or Dogecoin’s pump, is undeniable, and a Bitcoin-friendly party could galvanise retail and institutional interest alike. However, the America Party’s broader impact hinges on its ability to gain traction beyond Musk’s fan base.

If it remains a niche player, its influence on crypto might be more symbolic than substantive. Still, in a market hungry for narratives, Musk’s endorsement is a tailwind that could bolster sentiment, especially alongside regulatory tailwinds from Congress.

Stay nimble! The coming weeks could bring clarity or chaos to this intricate market puzzle.

 

Source: https://e27.co/musk-markets-and-money-trade-risks-meet-crypto-rewards-20250707/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j