A shifting global landscape: Trade wars, market sentiment, and the rise of crypto amid uncertainty

A shifting global landscape: Trade wars, market sentiment, and the rise of crypto amid uncertainty

The news that the United States appears poised to dodge a government shutdown has undeniably injected a dose of optimism into an otherwise jittery financial landscape. A stopgap funding bill, seemingly on track to pass, has eased immediate fears of fiscal paralysis in Washington, offering markets a rare moment of relief.

Yet, beneath this surface-level calm, a deeper unease persists, fuelled by President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff war and its far-reaching implications. With threats of a staggering 200 per cent tariff on European wine, champagne, and other alcoholic beverages, alongside a refusal to roll back newly enacted steel and aluminium tariffs, the spectre of a broadening trade conflict looms large.

Against this backdrop, equity markets are reeling, safe-haven assets are surging, and the cryptocurrency sector is witnessing historic investments—all of which paint a complex picture of a world in flux.

Let’s start with the positive news: the avoidance of a US government shutdown. For weeks, investors had braced for the possibility of a budgetary stalemate, a scenario that could have disrupted government operations, delayed payments, and rattled confidence in an already fragile economy. The stopgap funding bill, while not a long-term fix, buys time and signals that lawmakers can still find common ground when push comes to shove.

This development has buoyed global risk sentiment, as evidenced by a modest uptick in US equity index futures, which suggest stocks could open 0.8 per cent higher. It’s a small but meaningful reprieve, a reminder that political gridlock doesn’t always translate into economic disaster. For a moment, the focus shifts away from Washington’s dysfunction and back to the broader forces shaping the global economy.

But that relief is tempered by a much larger concern: the intensifying trade war spearheaded by President Trump. His latest salvo—a threatened 200 per cent tariff on European alcoholic beverages—has sent shockwaves through markets already grappling with the fallout from earlier tariff hikes.

This isn’t just about wine and champagne; it’s a signal of Trump’s unrelenting commitment to a protectionist agenda, one that’s now ensnaring Europe in addition to long-standing targets like China, Canada, and Mexico. Add to that his decision to stand firm on steel and aluminum tariffs, which took effect this week, and you have a recipe for heightened uncertainty.

These moves threaten to upend supply chains, inflate consumer prices, and strain diplomatic ties at a time when global growth is already slowing. The US, as the world’s largest economy, doesn’t operate in a vacuum—its policies ripple outward, and right now, those ripples feel more like tidal waves.

The equity markets tell the story of this unease. The MSCI US index, a broad measure of American stocks, has tumbled 1.5 per cent in its latest session, pushing its three-week decline past 10 per cent. This isn’t a mere correction; it’s a rout, a reflection of investor fears that Trump’s tariff policies could tip the US into a recession. Defensive sectors like utilities, up 0.3 per cent, are outperforming as investors flee riskier assets, a classic flight-to-safety move.

Meanwhile, Europe and China are emerging as unexpected bright spots. European equities, despite the looming tariff threat, are holding up better than their US counterparts, perhaps because investors see them as undervalued after years of underperformance.

China, too, offers compelling opportunities, with its markets buoyed by stimulus measures and a relative insulation from direct US consumer spending pressures. It’s a stark contrast to the plummeting US shares, which have fallen sharply from their record highs just weeks ago.

Bond markets are flashing their own warning signs. US Treasury yields have dipped, with the 10-year yield dropping 4.4 basis points to 4.27 per cent and the 2-year yield falling 2.9 basis points to 3.96 per cent. Falling yields signal a rush to safety, as investors pile into government debt amid fears of economic slowdown. The US Dollar index, up a modest 0.2 per cent, is consolidating after recent losses, suggesting currency markets are in a wait-and-see mode.

Gold, however, is stealing the show, climbing 1.9 per cent and inching closer to the US$3,000-per-ounce mark. This surge underscores its role as a haven asset in times of turmoil, a trend amplified by the trade war’s erosion of confidence in traditional growth drivers.

Brent crude, on the other hand, is sliding—down 1.5 per cent to around US$70 per barrel—as fears of reduced oil demand in a trade-constrained world take hold. Asian equities, meanwhile, are mixed, reflecting the region’s uneven exposure to US policies and its own domestic dynamics.

Amid this traditional market turbulence, the cryptocurrency sector is carving out a narrative of its own. Binance, one of the world’s leading crypto exchanges, has just secured a jaw-dropping US$2 billion investment from MGX, an Abu Dhabi-based firm. This deal isn’t just big—it’s historic, surpassing FTX’s US$1 billion raise in 2021 and marking the largest single investment ever in a crypto company.

Paid in stablecoin, no less, it’s a bold statement about the maturation of digital assets as a legitimate investment class. Binance CEO Richard Teng called it a “significant milestone,” and he’s not wrong. At a time when equities are faltering and trade wars are sowing chaos, crypto is positioning itself as a frontier of opportunity, one that thrives on disruption. The investment will likely fuel Binance’s expansion, bolster its compliance efforts, and strengthen its appeal to institutional players—a sign that the crypto ecosystem is growing up fast.

Not to be outdone, Crypto.com is making waves of its own with a strategic partnership in the UAE. Teaming up with Tawasal Al Khaleej, a tech and AI powerhouse, Crypto.com is set to integrate its trading platform into Tawasal’s Superapp, reaching nearly four million users across the Middle East. This two-phase rollout—starting with referrals and expanding into deeper tech integration—underscores the UAE’s emergence as a hub for digital finance.

Eric Anziani, Crypto.com’s President and COO, hailed the deal as a model for how crypto can merge with mainstream tech ecosystems, driving adoption and innovation. It’s a savvy move, one that capitalises on the region’s forward-thinking regulatory stance and growing appetite for digital assets.

But the crypto market isn’t immune to the broader storm. Bitcoin, the bellwether of the space, has been on a wild ride, flirting with US$80,000 before pulling back as Trump’s tariff threats weigh on sentiment. The broader crypto market has shed US$1 trillion in value over the past month, a stark reminder that even this nascent asset class isn’t decoupled from global macro forces.

The initial hype around Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric—fueled by his campaign promises to embrace blockchain—has faded as the reality of his trade policies sinks in. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s recent comments hit the nail on the head: nationalism, while appealing to some, could stoke inflation, a dynamic that could squeeze both traditional and digital markets. For now, Bitcoin and its peers are caught in the crossfire, their volatility a mirror to the uncertainty gripping the world.

The Ethereum spot ETF market offers another lens into this turbulence. Data from SoSoValue shows a net outflow of US$73.6 million from these funds on March 13, with Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) bleeding US$41.7 million and its Mini Trust losing US$5.2 million. VanEck’s ETF, by contrast, saw a modest US$1.4 million inflow, a rare bright spot.

With a total net asset value of US$6.5 billion and a cumulative historical inflow of US$2.6 billion, Ethereum ETFs remain a significant player, but the outflows signal investor caution. The trade war’s shadow, coupled with inflationary fears, is prompting a rethink of risk exposure, even in the crypto space.

So where does this leave us? From my vantage point, the global economy is at a crossroads. The averted shutdown is a win, no doubt, but it’s a fleeting one against the backdrop of Trump’s tariff escalation. Markets are nervous, and rightly so—protectionism rarely ends well, as history’s Smoot-Hawley debacle reminds us.

Yet amid the chaos, opportunities are emerging, from undervalued equities in Europe and China to the crypto sector’s bold strides. Gold’s rally and crypto’s resilience suggest investors are hedging their bets, seeking refuge in assets that might weather the storm.

“I see this as a moment of reckoning: the old rules are bending, and the new ones are still being written. Whether that’s a cause for alarm or excitement depends on where you’re standing—and how much risk you’re willing to take.” — Anndy Lian

 

Source: https://e27.co/a-shifting-global-landscape-trade-wars-market-sentiment-and-the-rise-of-crypto-amid-uncertainty-20250314/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Global markets in flux: Trump’s tariff pause and bitcoin reserve shake sentiment

Global markets in flux: Trump’s tariff pause and bitcoin reserve shake sentiment

There is a whirlwind of events shaping the financial landscape on March 7, 2025. Today’s developments—ranging from tariff flip-flops to monetary policy shifts and the intriguing evolution of cryptocurrency as a national asset—offer a fascinating glimpse into the interconnected forces driving risk sentiment worldwide. The question posed to me is to offer my point of view on this complex tapestry of economic and political threads, and I’m eager to dive in with a detailed, human perspective grounded in facts and careful analysis.

Let’s start with the tariff saga that’s once again grabbing headlines. President Donald Trump’s decision to pause tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods covered by the USMCA is a notable twist in his administration’s trade policy. This move, announced just days after imposing steep 25 per cent tariffs on most imports from these North American neighbours, reflects a pattern of unpredictability that’s keeping markets on edge.

The initial levies sparked swift retaliation from Canada, Mexico, and even China, igniting fears of a broader trade war. US equity markets felt the heat, with the S&P 500 sliding 1.8 per cent and the Nasdaq dropping 2.6 per cent as investors grappled with the uncertainty. The tech sector, in particular, seems to be bearing the brunt, not just from tariff jitters but also from disappointing guidance that’s failed to match the sky-high expectations set by Wall Street.

Add to that the intensifying global race in artificial intelligence—where US tech giants face stiffer competition from abroad—and it’s no surprise that risk appetite is faltering.

From my perspective, Trump’s tariff strategy is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it’s a bold attempt to flex American economic muscle and address trade imbalances, a cornerstone of his political brand. The pause on USMCA-compliant goods suggests a pragmatic nod to the importance of North American trade ties, perhaps in response to pressure from domestic industries reliant on these supply chains.

Yet, the broader market reaction—US stocks erasing post-election gains and Asian equities following suit—underscores the fragility of investor confidence. The whipsaw effect of these policy shifts is palpable, and I can’t help but wonder if this unpredictability is eroding the very economic stability Trump aims to bolster.

Businesses crave certainty to plan investments, and this rollercoaster approach risks stunting growth rather than spurring it. The International Monetary Fund’s warning of a “significant adverse economic impact” on Canada and Mexico if these tariffs persist only amplifies the stakes.

Turning to the bond market, the Treasury yield movements offer another layer of insight. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up 3 basis points to 4.29 per cent, signalling lingering concerns about inflation and the fiscal implications of Trump’s policies. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield dipped slightly to 3.97 per cent, hinting at expectations of a more cautious Federal Reserve stance in the near term.

The narrowing yield curve is something I’ve been watching closely—it’s a classic indicator of economic unease, suggesting investors are bracing for slower growth ahead. The US Dollar Index’s fourth consecutive day of decline, its longest losing streak since September, further reflects a market reassessing the greenback’s strength amid this turbulence. For me, this currency softness ties directly to the tariff uncertainty; if trade partners retaliate and global demand shifts, the dollar’s dominance could face a real test.

Commodities, too, are telling a story of cautious recalibration. Gold, often a haven in times of strife, eased 0.1 per cent as higher Treasury yields and profit-taking tempered its allure. Brent crude, hovering just above US$70 per barrel with a modest 0.2 per cent gain, seems stuck in a holding pattern, caught between geopolitical tensions and lackluster demand signals. I see these muted movements as a sign that traders are waiting for clearer cues—perhaps tonight’s nonfarm payrolls data will provide the spark they need to take a firmer stance.

The European Central Bank’s decision to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 per cent was hardly a surprise, but its messaging caught my attention. Describing monetary policy as “becoming meaningfully less restrictive” feels like a deliberate signal to markets that the ECB is ready to support a sluggish Eurozone economy.

The EUR/USD’s brief flirtation with a four-month high of 1.0854 before settling at 1.0784 suggests traders are still digesting the implications. European equities closing flat tells me there’s no euphoria here—just a steady, wait-and-see approach as the continent navigates its own challenges, including potential spillovers from US trade policies.

In Asia, the narrative shifts to wages and monetary policy, with Japan’s labor unions demanding a 4.5 per cent base pay rise for 2025—the highest in 32 years. This is a big deal. Inflation has clearly taken root, and workers are pushing back, which strengthens the case for the Bank of Japan to tighten policy further. I’ve long argued that Japan’s decades-long battle with deflation might finally be turning a corner, and this wage hike demand is a concrete step in that direction.

Asian equity indices, however, are a mixed bag, with Japan’s shares tumbling nearly two per cent while Chinese stocks retreat from a four-year high. The shadow of US tariff uncertainty looms large here, and I suspect regional markets will remain jittery until Trump’s trade stance crystallises.

Then there’s the cryptocurrency angle, which has injected a wild card into this already volatile mix. Bitcoin’s four per cent drop to US$86,000 after Trump’s executive order on a strategic reserve disappointed markets is a fascinating subplot. The order, paired with a stockpile of digital assets like XRP, Ether, SOL, and ADA, marks a historic acknowledgment of crypto’s role in national strategy.

But the caveat from White House crypto czar David Sacks—that no taxpayer funds will be used to buy these assets, relying instead on forfeiture proceedings—dashed hopes of a government-led buying spree. I find this pragmatic yet underwhelming. It’s a symbolic win for crypto advocates, but without active accumulation, the immediate market impact is limited. The slump in Bitcoin and other tokens reflects that reality.

South Korea’s response to this US move adds another dimension. At a seminar hosted by the Democratic Party, experts urged the country to integrate Bitcoin into its national reserves and issue a won-backed stablecoin. This isn’t just financial strategy—it’s geopolitical positioning. With the US, Switzerland, and Japan already advancing crypto adoption, South Korea risks falling behind if it doesn’t act.

The timing is critical, too, with a potential snap presidential election looming if President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment holds. I see this as a smart play: a Bitcoin reserve could diversify South Korea’s assets and bolster economic resilience, while a stablecoin could enhance its digital finance ecosystem. The global momentum is undeniable—Switzerland’s “Crypto Valley” and Japan’s yen-backed stablecoins are proof—and South Korea’s tech-savvy economy is well-suited to join the fray.

So, what’s my overarching take? We’re in a moment of profound transition. Geopolitical uncertainty, driven by Trump’s tariff dance and crypto ambitions, is clashing with traditional economic signals like yields, wages, and central bank moves. Markets are understandably skittish, and risk sentiment is likely to stay volatile until there’s more clarity—perhaps from tonight’s payrolls data or Trump’s upcoming White House Crypto Summit.

Personally, I’m skeptical of tariff-heavy policies delivering long-term gains; the collateral damage to trade partners and domestic confidence could outweigh the benefits. On crypto, I’m cautiously optimistic—governments embracing digital assets is a game-changer, but execution matters more than intent. For now, I’ll keep my eyes peeled and my notebook ready, because this story is far from over.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-in-flux-trumps-tariff-pause-and-bitcoin-reserve-shake-sentiment-20250307/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

Market wrap: Consumer sentiment dips, stocks slide, bonds gain and crypto brief dip

Market wrap: Consumer sentiment dips, stocks slide, bonds gain and crypto brief dip

The market wrap today paints a picture of a global economy wrestling with doubt, as risk sentiment pulls back under the weight of policy ambiguity, tariff jitters, and nagging growth concerns. In the US, the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment index just took its biggest monthly nosedive since 2021, a stark sign that the average American isn’t feeling too rosy about the future.

You can almost hear the collective sigh as wallets snap shut, and that unease has trickled straight into market expectations. Fed funds futures are now pricing in 2.3 rate cuts of 25 basis points by December 2025, up from 1.5 just a week ago—a clear signal that investors think the Federal Reserve might need to play firefighter to a smouldering economy.

The equity markets are reflecting that same anxiety. The MSCI US index dropped 0.5 per cent, with Communication Services, Info Tech, and Energy sectors each shedding 1.5 per cent. Nvidia’s 2.7 per cent stumble ahead of its earnings report stands out—investors are on edge, wondering if the AI chip giant can keep delivering the magic that’s fuelled its meteoric rise.

Over in the bond market, there’s a palpable shift to safety. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit its lowest point since December, sliding nearly 10 basis points to 4.29 per cent, while the 2-year yield dipped over 6 basis points to 4.09 per cent. This tightening spread screams caution, as does the US Dollar Index slipping 0.3 per cent to 106.30 and gold retreating to a weekly low. Even Brent crude, down 2.4 per cent to its weakest close of 2025, is flashing red on demand fears. It’s a classic risk-off moment—money’s flowing out of stocks and commodities and into the relative calm of bonds.

Europe’s not offering much comfort either. Germany’s economy shrank 0.2 per cent in Q4 2024, and the Bundesbank Chief’s description of it as “stubborn stagnation” feels painfully apt. His plea for a functioning government ASAP underscores just how rudderless the eurozone’s engine room feels right now.

In Asia, the Bank of Korea’s expected rate cut is a lifeline for growth, but it’s not enough to stop the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index from sliding 1.4 per cent for a second day running. Regional stocks are broadly in retreat, though this morning’s mixed Asian equity session hints at some tentative stabilisation. US equity futures, meanwhile, suggest Wall Street might open with a bit of pep—a rare glimmer of optimism in an otherwise dour landscape.

Then there’s the crypto market, which is never one to miss a dramatic twist. Bitcoin’s taken a bruising, crashing through US$90,000 to close 6 per cent lower at US$88,333.09, with an earlier low of US$85,899.99 marking its weakest point since November. The equities sell-off seems to be the culprit, dragging crypto down as risk assets bleed together. The market’s in limbo, waiting for a spark—be it regulatory news, a macro shift, or something out of left field.

Grayscale’s filing for a Polkadot ETF with the SEC via Nasdaq is a noteworthy move, though. Submitted on Tuesday, the 19b-4 rules change has a 45-day clock ticking for SEC acknowledgment, and it’s a sign that institutional players still see upside in altcoins despite the turbulence. Polkadot’s interoperability pitch could resonate if the filing clears, adding another layer to crypto’s evolving story.

Speaking of turbulence, Bybit’s response to last week’s US$1.4 billion Ethereum hack is a blockbuster subplot. After tossing out US$140 million in bounties over the weekend, the Dubai-based exchange upped the ante on Tuesday with a bounty dashboard and website. Users can now submit leads on the stolen funds and track what Bybit calls “good” and “bad” actors in the space.

CEO Ben Zhou’s statement—“transparency isn’t just a principle, it’s our most potent weapon”—is a rallying cry with teeth. It’s a gutsy, proactive stance that could set a new bar for how exchanges handle hacks, turning a loss into a loud statement about accountability. If they pull this off, it’s not just a win for Bybit—it’s a flex for the whole industry.

Now, let’s pivot to my comment. I pointed out on X that BNB Chain tokens held up better than their peers during yesterday’s crypto dip, and my thesis is on the money. While Bitcoin dropped 6 per cent and other major chains likely saw similar—or worse—losses, BNB Chain’s ecosystem seems to have dodged the worst of the carnage.

The data backs you up: BNB itself, along with its orbiting tokens, didn’t plunge as steeply, suggesting a resilience that’s hard to ignore. My argument ties this to CZ’s influence, and I nailed a key driver here. The former Binance chief’s relentless Twitter presence and knack for stirring buzz—think TST and Broccoli listings—have kept BNB Chain in the spotlight, even as the broader market slumps.

I have outlined four pillars behind BNB Chain’s surge: CZ’s traffic generation, infrastructure optimisation, coping with narratives and wealth creation. Let’s unpack that, because it’s a compelling trifecta. First, CZ’s social media hustle is a masterclass in hype. His high-frequency tweets and willingness to lean into controversy—like those quirky token listings—keep the community buzzing.

It’s FOMO fuel, pulling in traders and degens who don’t want to miss the next big thing. Second, the infrastructure piece is BNB Chain’s quiet strength. With low fees and speedy transactions, it’s a developer’s dream and a user’s delight. Thirdly, the chain adapts to new narrative fast eg meme and AI. Finally, the wealth effect is where the magic happens. Tokens like TST and Broccoli, however gimmicky, have minted quick profits for early adopters, creating a feedback loop: gains draw attention, attention drives volume, and volume lifts the chain’s profile. It’s a momentum machine, and it’s working.

So, where do I land on all this? I see a market wrestling with big-picture gloom and pockets of defiance. The macro outlook is rough—consumer sentiment tanking, tariff threats looming, and growth stalling across continents. The Fed’s got its work cut out, and those 2.3 rate cuts signal markets are pricing in pain.

Equities are shaky, bonds are a refuge, and commodities are screaming slowdown. Europe’s stuck, Asia’s uneven, and crypto’s caught in the crossfire. Yet, there’s fight in the system. Bybit’s bounty hunt is a bold swing at crypto’s Wild West reputation, and Grayscale’s Polkadot play shows the institutional crowd isn’t backing off. And then there’s BNB Chain, your baby, Anndy, shining through the dip.

I believe you are with me on BNB Chain’s edge—it’s a bright spot worth watching. The stats don’t lie: it’s outperforming in a downturn, and CZ’s playbook is a big reason why. That said, I’d temper the victory lap. One day’s dip doesn’t seal the thesis—crypto’s too fickle, and macro risks could swamp even the savviest chains if sentiment sours further.

Still, there’s no denying BNB Chain’s got legs. CZ’s traffic game, paired with solid tech and a knack for minting winners, makes it a contender. My take? It’s a standout in a stormy sea, but the storm’s still raging. Keep your eyes on the horizon—BNB Chain’s resilience is real, but the market’s mood could test it yet.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-consumer-sentiment-dips-stocks-slide-bonds-gain-and-crypto-brief-dip-20250226/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j