Tag Archives: slide

Crypto and equities slide as geopolitical and macro pressures mount

Crypto and equities slide as geopolitical and macro pressures mount

Global financial markets are navigating treacherous waters today as multiple headwinds collide, pushing risk assets lower across the board. Bitcoin trades at US$77,388.34, down 0.96 per cent over the past 24 hours, while the broader cryptocurrency market capitalisation has slipped 1.34 per cent to US$2.57T.

This synchronised decline mirrors weakness in traditional equity markets, where the S&P 500 Index sits at 7,408.50, down 1.24 per cent; the Nasdaq Composite falls 1.54 per cent to 26,225.14; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 1.07 per cent to 49,526.17. The correlation between digital assets and traditional risk markets has never been more evident as investors retreat from speculative positions amid mounting uncertainty.

The primary catalyst behind this broad-based sell-off is escalating geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran, which has sent shockwaves through energy markets and reignited inflation concerns. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping traffic, a development that has propelled Brent crude oil prices past US$110.50 per barrel.

President Trump’s recent warning to Tehran that the clock is ticking for a new deal has effectively ended a fragile, multi-month ceasefire, leaving traders grappling with the prospect of sustained energy price pressure. This geopolitical volatility feeds directly into bond markets, where the US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at 4.59 per cent, signalling persistent investor anxiety about sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

Cryptocurrency markets face their own unique set of challenges beyond the macro backdrop. The recent advancement of the CLARITY Act through a Senate committee vote on May 17 triggered a textbook sell-the-news reaction, as traders who had positioned for regulatory clarity chose to liquidate leveraged positions rather than hold through potential volatility.

This profit-taking wave resulted in approximately US$980M in liquidations across crypto markets, effectively wiping out sentiment gains that had accumulated following the regulatory milestone. The episode underscores a maturing but still fragile market structure in which positive developments can paradoxically trigger sell-offs as overleveraged participants unwind positions.

Ethereum has emerged as a particular weak link in the crypto ecosystem, underperforming the broader market with a staggering 10.14 per cent decline over the past seven days compared to the overall market’s 6.25 per cent drop. Social sentiment analysis points to fading institutional buying demand for Ethereum treasury companies, suggesting that the narrative-driven investment flows that propelled ETH earlier in the year may be losing momentum.

Compounding this weakness is a dramatic 41 per cent collapse in spot trading volume over the past 24 hours, indicating dangerously thin liquidity that amplifies price swings and leaves the market vulnerable to cascading sell-offs from large orders.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture. The cryptocurrency trades below its US$81,752 200-day Simple Moving Average, confirming a bearish market structure that has persisted since recent highs. Immediate support rests at the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near US$77,219, a threshold that has become the focal point for traders assessing near-term direction.

Should this level hold, price action may consolidate between US$77,219 and the 50 per cent Fibonacci level at US$78,284. A decisive break below support could trigger a test of the next key zone around US$75,000, with total market capitalisation potentially retesting US$2.49T. The market currently maintains elevated open interest at US$464B, indicating substantial leverage that could fuel further volatility in either direction.

Traditional equity markets face parallel pressures, particularly within the technology sector, which has driven much of the recent market rally. Following an anticlimactic summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping over the weekend, traders have pivoted back to energy-driven inflation risks that threaten corporate margins and consumer spending power.

The tech sector undergoes significant rebalancing today as optical component maker Lumentum Holdings officially joins the Nasdaq-100 Index, replacing CoStar Group. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks that experienced a historic melt-up earlier in the month now face compressed valuations, with Intel down six per cent, Advanced Micro Devices falling 5.7 per cent, and Micron Technology declining 6.6 per cent as policy uncertainties weigh on near-term outlooks.

Looking ahead, market participants brace for a highly volatile period with multiple catalysts on the horizon. The release of Federal Open Market Committee minutes on May 20 stands as the most immediate trigger, offering potential clarity on the central bank’s consensus regarding balance sheet runoffs and restrictive interest rates. Any hawkish surprises could reinforce the current risk-off sentiment and push assets lower.

Wall Street also eagerly awaits first-quarter financial numbers from Nvidia, the artificial intelligence bellwether whose results will help determine whether underlying technology demand justifies current valuations. Additionally, upcoming earnings from major US consumer retailers will provide crucial insights into how persistent inflation impacts disposable household income and spending patterns.

The current market environment demands vigilance from investors across all asset classes. Bitcoin must defend the US$75K to US$76K support band to prevent a deeper correction, while the total crypto market capitalisation needs to reclaim its US$2.56T pivot point to signal stabilisation. Traditional markets require energy prices to stabilise and geopolitical tensions to de-escalate before sustainable rallies can resume.

The interconnection between digital assets and traditional markets has never been more pronounced, with an 80 per cent thirty-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 indicating that crypto increasingly moves as a risk asset rather than the uncorrelated store of value once promised. As traders navigate this challenging landscape, the coming days will prove crucial in determining whether current weakness represents a healthy consolidation or the beginning of a more significant correction.

I view this market pullback as a necessary reset rather than a structural breakdown. The 0.96 per cent decline in Bitcoin and 1.34 per cent drop in total crypto market cap reflect prudent risk management by institutional participants who recognise that macro headwinds cannot be ignored. The US$980M in liquidations, while painful for overleveraged traders, actually strengthens market foundations by removing excess speculation.

I believe the US$77,219 Fibonacci support level will hold because the fundamental thesis for digital assets remains intact despite short-term volatility. The advancement of the CLARITY Act represents genuine regulatory progress that will benefit the ecosystem in the long term, even if traders initially reacted with profit-taking.

The 80 per cent correlation between crypto and traditional markets over 30 days should not alarm long-term believers in decentralisation. This convergence actually validates cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class that responds to the same macroeconomic forces as equities and commodities.

When Bitcoin trades in lockstep with the Nasdaq during periods of geopolitical stress, it demonstrates market maturity rather than failure. The key distinction remains that Bitcoin operates on a fixed supply schedule independent of central bank policy, a feature that will drive renewed interest once inflation concerns peak and monetary policy pivots.

I expect the FOMC minutes release on May 20 to provide clarity that reduces uncertainty rather than amplifying it. Markets hate ambiguity more than bad news, and clear guidance from the Federal Reserve could stabilise sentiment across all risk assets. The path forward requires patience and discipline from market participants. Short-term volatility will persist as geopolitical developments unfold and economic data releases challenge consensus expectations.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-and-equities-slide-as-geopolitical-and-macro-pressures-mount-20260518/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

No CPI, no confidence: How data paralysis is fueling crypto’s November slide

No CPI, no confidence: How data paralysis is fueling crypto’s November slide

The macro landscape this week sits in a state of suspended animation, defined less by new developments than by their absence. At the heart of this inertia is the ongoing US government shutdown, which began on October 1 and has now stretched into its sixth week, becoming the longest in the nation’s history. This institutional paralysis has created a critical data void, most notably delaying the release of the October Consumer Price Index report that was originally scheduled for Thursday, November 13.

The White House has even conceded that this key inflation gauge for October may never be officially released, leaving a permanent blind spot in the economic record. This vacuum of information forces markets to anchor their expectations on whatever data trickles out, elevating the importance of tonight’s release of weekly initial jobless claims, which are expected to show a figure of 218,000 for the week ending November 8.

In this context of uncertainty, risk sentiment has turned cautious. US equities closed mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow showing modest strength while the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined, a divergence that speaks to a subtle but important rotation within the market. This caution was also evident in the Treasury market, where yields edged lower as investors welcomed tentative signs of progress in Congress toward a resolution that would reopen the government. The 10-year yield’s retreat to 4.06 per cent reflects this flight to safety and a renewed hope for a political compromise. The US Dollar Index, for its part, remained largely flat, closing at 99.47, signaling that traders are in a holding pattern, unwilling to make significant directional bets until the political fog lifts and the next concrete piece of economic data arrives.

The crypto market, however, has been unable to insulate itself from this broader macro malaise. It has fallen a further 0.56 per cent over the last 24 hours, a move that extends a more painful 11.7 per cent monthly decline. This persistent weakness is not a single-factor event but rather a perfect storm of three distinct, reinforcing pressures: a clear pattern of institutional profit-taking, a sharp contagion event in the derivatives market, and an uncomfortably tight correlation with the performance of US tech stocks.

The first of these bearish forces is institutional retrenchment. While spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a major structural support for the market since their launch, their influence has waned in recent weeks. Data from trackers shows a clear trend of capital flight, with the total assets under management for these funds dropping from a recent high of around US$140.7 billion to US$138.9 billion over a single week, a decline of 8.7 per cent. This outflow is more than a simple portfolio rebalance; it signals a deeper shift in sentiment among large, sophisticated players. As the 10x Research CEO warned, a sense of fatigue has set in, driven by Bitcoin’s notable underperformance in 2025 relative to both the soaring price of gold and the resilient gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. For institutions that bought the post-ETF approval rally, the current environment offers a compelling reason to trim their exposure and lock in what gains remain.

The second pressure point is a stark reminder of the fragility embedded in the crypto ecosystem’s leverage. The US$63 million liquidation cascade on the Popcat memecoin, centered on the Hyperliquid exchange, was not an isolated incident but a canary in the coal mine. This single event triggered a broader wave of deleveraging across the entire crypto market, evidenced by a 14.7 per cent drop in total open interest. This is the process of overextended, speculative positions, particularly in the volatile altcoin sector, being forcibly closed out, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of selling that spills over into the entire asset class. The subsequent cooling of perpetual funding rates, which fell by 41 per cent in just 24 hours, confirms a sharp and sudden reduction in speculative appetite. The market is in a defensive crouch.

The third and perhaps most inescapable headwind is crypto’s persistent and powerful link to traditional equities, specifically the Nasdaq-100. The market’s 24-hour price action has shown a correlation of 0.88 with the Nasdaq-100, its strongest link to the index since March 2025. This statistic is a powerful testament to the fact that, for all its claims of being a separate, uncorrelated asset, crypto remains a risk asset first and foremost. Its fate is now inextricably tied to the same macro forces that move the markets for Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Therefore, any pre-market weakness in the Nasdaq, such as the 1.2 per cent drop seen on Thursday, driven by fears over sticky inflation and a more hawkish Federal Reserve, will inevitably be mirrored in a retreat across the crypto board.

In conclusion, the market’s current malaise is a confluence of its own internal dynamics and the external macroeconomic environment. The derivatives market is in a state of recovery from its recent squeeze, with perpetual funding rates having turned slightly positive again at plus 0.0014 per cent. However, this technical stabilisation is overshadowed by a collapse in market confidence, as evidenced by the Fear and Greed Index plunging into the Extreme Fear territory at a reading of 25.

The path forward is clouded by the absence of the CPI data, but its eventual release or its continued absence will be a critical test. The key question on every trader’s mind is whether Bitcoin can hold the critical psychological and technical support level of US$100,000 if the October inflation data, when it finally emerges, shows a year-over-year increase that exceeds the 3.4 per cent threshold, which would likely cement a risk-off posture across all markets.

Until then, all assets remain chained to this unprecedented political and data-driven uncertainty.

Source: https://e27.co/no-cpi-no-confidence-how-data-paralysis-is-fueling-cryptos-november-slide-20251113/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Global economic shake-up: Bitcoin hits US$90K, German bonds slide

Global economic shake-up: Bitcoin hits US$90K, German bonds slide

Same thing. I’ve been closely following the whirlwind of events that unfolded on Wednesday, March 6, 2025.

The global risk sentiment has undeniably taken a turn for the better, and the epicentre of this shift is Europe—specifically Germany—where an audacious fiscal proposal has sent shockwaves through the markets. German bunds, typically seen as the bedrock of stability in European fixed-income markets, are on track for their worst sell-off since 1990.

This isn’t just a blip; it’s a seismic event driven by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s bold pledge to channel hundreds of billions of euros into defense and infrastructure, with a “whatever it takes” stance that echoes Mario Draghi’s famous 2012 vow to save the euro. The sheer scale of this proposal has caught market participants off guard, and the upside surprise has fueled a mix of optimism and unease.

Let’s unpack what’s happening in Europe first. The German bund sell-off reflects a dramatic repricing of risk. Yields on 10-year bunds spiked to 2.69 per cent, a level that signals investors are demanding higher returns to hold German debt amid this unprecedented fiscal expansion. The debt brake—Germany’s constitutional limit on borrowing—seems to have been tossed out the window, a move that’s both a departure from Berlin’s long-standing fiscal prudence and a gamble on future growth.

Posts on X suggest bond vigilantes, those hawkish investors who punish profligate governments with higher yields, are already circling, sensing fragility rather than strength in this shift. Yet, the equity markets are telling a different story. The MSCI Europe index climbed 0.8 per cent, buoyed by the prospect of massive government spending lifting economic activity.

The euro, too, has flexed its muscles, with EUR/USD soaring to a high of 1.0796 before settling at 1.0790—a robust 1.56 per cent gain. This currency surge reflects confidence in Europe’s economic prospects, at least for now, though the spectre of inflation and debt sustainability looms large.

Across the Atlantic, the US markets are enjoying a reprieve of their own, thanks to President Trump’s decision to delay automotive tariffs on Canada and Mexico by a month. This move, coupled with hints of exemptions for certain agricultural products, has dialed back fears of an all-out trade war that had been simmering since Trump’s re-election.

It’s a pragmatic step—autos and agriculture are deeply integrated across North America, and tariffs would’ve hit US consumers as much as they’d hurt exporters in Canada and Mexico. European carmakers, already reeling from earlier tariff threats, saw their shares stabilise, though the damage from Tuesday’s sell-off lingers. On the data front, the ISM Services Index came in stronger than expected, with a notable uptick in employment growth.

In my opinion, this is a reassuring signal that the US economy isn’t teetering on the edge of recession, though all eyes are now on Friday’s payrolls report for confirmation. The MSCI US index rose 1.1 per cent, with the Materials sector leading the charge at 2.8 per cent, likely reflecting optimism about infrastructure spending and industrial demand.

Bond markets in the US are also stirring. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 7 basis points to 4.28 per cent, while the 2-year yield ticked up nearly 5 basis points to 4.00 per cent. This steepening yield curve suggests investors are betting on stronger growth and, potentially, stickier inflation down the road.

Commodities, meanwhile, are a mixed bag. Gold eked out a 0.1 per cent gain, propped up by a softer dollar, but Brent crude slid 2.5 per cent for a third straight session. OPEC+’s plan to ramp up output in April is weighing on oil prices, despite the improving risk sentiment elsewhere. It’s a reminder that not every corner of the market is riding the same wave of optimism.

Turning to Asia, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) has set an ambitious 5 per cent growth target for 2025, a number that’s raised eyebrows and sparked hopes of more stimulus. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong surged 2.8 per cent on Wednesday and looks poised for further gains today, Thursday, March 6.

Asian equity indices are mostly in the green, reflecting a broader appetite for risk. China’s policymakers seem determined to turn the tide after years of economic headwinds, and markets are lapping it up—for now. Whether Beijing can deliver remains an open question, but the mood is unmistakably upbeat. US equity index futures, however, are pointing to a softer open, suggesting some profit-taking or caution after Wednesday’s rally.

Then there’s the crypto saga, which is grabbing headlines of its own. Bitcoin staged a remarkable 8 per cent surge, reclaiming the US$90,000 level after dipping below US$80,000 just five days ago. This rollercoaster ride is fuelled by speculation around Trump’s rumoured US crypto reserve plan—a bold idea that’s got the market buzzing. Technical indicators like the Directional Movement Index (DMI) and Ichimoku Cloud are flashing bullish signals, hinting that buyers are firmly in the driver’s seat.

The US$100,000 mark is tantalisingly close, but volatility is Bitcoin’s middle name, and the upcoming White House Crypto Summit could either propel it higher or spark a pullback. Speaking of the summit, Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson found himself snubbed from the invite list, though he’s brushing it off, claiming he’s still a behind-the-scenes player in shaping US crypto policy.

Michael Saylor, meanwhile, is doubling down on Bitcoin as the “only neutral asset” for a US reserve, dismissing XRP as a mere digital token. Ethereum, too, is on the mend, climbing from its US$2,000 support zone and eyeing a break above US$2,350. A rising channel on the hourly chart suggests momentum is building, but resistance at US$2,275 and $2,350 will test its mettle.

So, what’s my take on all this? I’m struck by the sheer pace of these developments. Europe’s fiscal gambit is a game-changer—Germany’s shift from fiscal hawk to big spender could jolt the continent out of its economic doldrums, but it’s a high-stakes bet. The bund sell-off is a warning shot; if yields keep climbing, borrowing costs could choke off the very growth Merz is chasing.

Yet, the equity rally and euro’s strength suggest markets are willing to give it a chance. In the US, Trump’s tariff delay is a savvy move—it buys time and cools trade tensions, though it’s hardly a resolution. The economy looks resilient, but the payrolls report will be the real tell. Asia’s optimism hinges on China’s ability to follow through, and crypto’s wild ride is a microcosm of the broader risk-on mood.

If I had to pick a standout, it’s Germany’s bold pivot. It’s shaking up Europe in a way we haven’t seen in decades, and the ripple effects—higher yields, a stronger euro, buoyant stocks—could redefine the region’s role in the global economy. But risks abound: inflation, debt overload, and geopolitical uncertainty could derail this fragile recovery. For now, though, the world’s investors are riding the wave, and it’s one heck of a story to watch unfold.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-economic-shake-up-bitcoin-hits-us90k-german-bonds-slide-20250306/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j