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Trump tariffs shake markets: Why gold soars as Bitcoin stumbles in 2025

Trump tariffs shake markets: Why gold soars as Bitcoin stumbles in 2025

Today’s market wrap offers a fascinating snapshot of a world grappling with shifting risk sentiments, trade tensions, and the evolving dynamics of traditional and alternative assets. Global risk sentiment has shown signs of improvement, with Asian shares rebounding after what was described as their worst day on record. Japan, in particular, has taken the lead in early trading gains, buoyed by optimism that it might receive preferential treatment in trade negotiations with US President Donald Trump’s administration.

Meanwhile, Trump’s unwavering stance on imposing additional tariffs—despite pleas from trading partners—has kept markets on edge, with the S&P 500 teetering on the brink of a bear market. This backdrop of uncertainty, coupled with fluctuating performances in Hong Kong and China amid threats of a 50 per cent tariff hike, paints a complex picture of global finance.

Add to that China’s central bank stepping in to bolster its sovereign fund for local stock purchases, and we’re witnessing a multifaceted tug-of-war between policy, sentiment, and economic fundamentals.

Let’s look into the specifics. The US markets have been a rollercoaster, with the MSCI US index slipping 0.2 per cent after a volatile session. Within that, the Communication Services sector stood out, climbing 1.0 per cent and offering a glimmer of resilience amid the chaos.

Treasury yields, which had recently pulled back sharply, rebounded with the 10-year yield rising 18.9 basis points to 4.18 per cent and the 2-year yield up 11.1 basis points to 3.76 per cent. This uptick suggests a market recalibrating its expectations, perhaps anticipating inflationary pressures or a shift in Federal Reserve policy signals.

The US Dollar index, meanwhile, edged up 0.2 per cent, stabilising after recent losses, while gold took a hit, dropping 1.8 per cent to hover around US$3,000 per ounce. This decline in gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, could reflect profit-taking or a reaction to rising yields, which typically make non-yielding assets less attractive.

On the energy front, Brent crude fell 2.1 per cent to below US$65 per barrel, weighed down by tariff-related demand concerns and OPEC+ members increasing output—a double whammy for oil prices.

Across the Pacific, Asian equities have mostly climbed in early trading, with Japan’s optimism setting the tone. This bounce-back follows a brutal sell-off, and it’s encouraging to see markets attempting to find their footing. US equity index futures are also signalling a positive start, with an implied opening gain of 1.6 per cent. This suggests that, despite the tariff threats and economic downturn fears, investors are willing to bet on a recovery—at least for now.

But beneath this surface-level resilience lies a deeper story, particularly when we zoom in on two assets that have captured the world’s attention in recent years: gold and bitcoin. From November 2022 to November 2024, these two moved in a relatively tight correlation, with gold rising 67 per cent and bitcoin soaring nearly 400 per cent.

Analysts had long argued that their shared appeal as hedges against weak global currency policies would keep them aligned. Yet, in 2025, that relationship has begun to unravel, with gold up 16 per cent since late March and bitcoin down more than six per cent. What’s driving this divergence, and what does it mean for investors?

Bitcoin’s journey over the past few years has been nothing short of remarkable. Its meteoric rise—peaking above US$109,000 in January 2025—can be traced to a surge in institutional adoption. Heavyweights like BlackRock, VanEck, and Fidelity have deepened their stakes in the cryptocurrency market, lending it a level of legitimacy that was once unthinkable. Countries like El Salvador have gone further, integrating bitcoin into their financial systems, while the US government has floated plans for a strategic crypto reserve, signalling a potential shift in how nations view digital assets.

New financial products have also fuelled this growth. Take, for instance, CME Group’s Bitcoin Friday futures, which offer contracts as small as 1/50th of a coin, lowering the barrier to entry for retail investors. And just yesterday, Cboe Global Markets announced its new Cboe FTSE Bitcoin Index Futures, set to launch on April 28.

These cash-settled contracts, trading under the XBTF ticker, are designed to give traders more precise control over their bitcoin exposure without needing to hold the asset itself. Paired with Cboe’s recent options tied to bitcoin ETFs, these innovations are broadening the toolkit available to investors, reinforcing bitcoin’s staying power.

But the road hasn’t been smooth. Bitcoin faced significant sell pressure earlier today, dipping to US$74,604 before rebounding to above US$79,000. Even with this recovery, it’s down 3.1 per cent in the past 24 hours and nearly 30 per cent from its January peak. Analysts at IT Tech recently highlighted a spike in the Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which tracks the movement of older coins that have been dormant for extended periods.

A surge in CDD often signals that long-term holders are moving their assets to exchanges, potentially to sell. This could reflect profit-taking after bitcoin’s massive run-up or a reaction to broader market uncertainty, including Trump’s tariff threats and fears of an economic slowdown. Whatever the cause, this selling pressure underscores bitcoin’s volatility—a trait that sets it apart from gold, even as both assets vie for the “safe-haven” mantle.

Gold, by contrast, has followed a steadier path in 2025. Its 16 per cent gain since late March reflects a flight to safety amid tariff tensions and rising yields. Unlike bitcoin, gold benefits from its centuries-old reputation as a reliable store of value, especially when economic storm clouds gather. The recent drop to US$3,000 per ounce might suggest some profit-taking, but the broader trend points to sustained demand.

Rising Treasury yields, which typically pressure gold prices, haven’t derailed its upward trajectory, perhaps because investors see tariffs and geopolitical risks as outweighing the yield factor. This resilience highlights a key difference: while bitcoin thrives on institutional momentum and speculative fervour, gold draws strength from its stability and universality.

So, what’s my take on all this? As someone who’s spent years dissecting market trends, I see this divergence as a natural evolution of two assets with overlapping but distinct identities. Bitcoin’s pullback doesn’t diminish its long-term potential; the institutional backing and innovative products like the Cboe FTSE Bitcoin Index Futures suggest it’s here to stay.

But its volatility—exacerbated by tariff fears and profit-taking—reminds us that it’s still a young, dynamic asset prone to sharp swings. Gold, meanwhile, is playing its classic role as a steady hand in turbulent times, bolstered by its tangible nature and historical gravitas. The fraying correlation between the two isn’t a sign of weakness but rather a maturation of the market, where each asset is finding its own lane.

Looking ahead, the global risk sentiment will hinge on how Trump’s tariff policies unfold. Japan’s early gains signal hope for targeted trade deals, but the broader threat of levies on dozens of countries could keep markets jittery. The S&P 500’s flirtation with bear market territory is a red flag, and if economic downturn fears intensify, we could see more wild swings across asset classes. For now, Asian shares are offering a glimmer of optimism, and US futures suggest a willingness to rebound.

But with Brent crude sliding and China’s central bank stepping in, the stakes remain high. My job is to keep digging—tracking the data, questioning the narratives, and piecing together the story as it unfolds. Today’s market wrap is just one chapter in a saga that’s far from over, and I’ll be here, pen in hand, to chronicle what comes next.

 

Source: https://e27.co/trump-tariffs-shake-markets-why-gold-soars-as-bitcoin-stumbles-in-2025-20250408/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Gold soars, Stocks teeter, Crypto seesaw: The world awaits Trump’s trade hammer

Gold soars, Stocks teeter, Crypto seesaw: The world awaits Trump’s trade hammer

I’m here to unpack the swirling storm of economic forces at play on this first day of April 2025. The financial world is holding its breath, eyes fixed on tomorrow’s looming tariff deadline set by US President Donald Trump. Reports over the weekend hinting at “broader” and “higher” tariffs than previously anticipated have cast a shadow over global risk sentiment, leaving markets jittery and investors scrambling to make sense of it all.

What’s unfolding is a high-stakes drama with far-reaching implications—not just for traditional equities and bonds, but for commodities like gold and Brent crude, and even the ever-volatile cryptocurrency space, where Bitcoin is staging its own wild dance. Let’s dive into the details of this market wrap, explore the undercurrents driving these shifts, and offer my perspective on where things might be headed.

The mood across global markets today is unmistakably subdued. Uncertainty is the name of the game as President Trump’s April 2nd tariff deadline approaches. Over the weekend, whispers emerged that the tariffs could exceed initial expectations, potentially targeting a wider swath of imports with steeper rates. This isn’t just a minor tweak to trade policy—it’s a bold escalation that threatens to upend supply chains, stoke inflation, and rattle investor confidence.

The S&P 500, a bellwether for US equities, epitomised this unease in a volatile trading session yesterday. It plunged 1.7 per cent at one point, only to claw its way back to a modest 0.6 per cent gain by the close. That recovery, however, doesn’t mask the bigger picture: Wall Street just wrapped up its worst quarter relative to global peers since 2009. The US market, once a beacon of strength, is losing ground as the rest of the world grapples with the ripple effects of America’s protectionist pivot.

Meanwhile, the bond market offered its own commentary on the situation. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries dipped 3 basis points to 4.22 per cent, pulling back from session highs as investors sought the relative safety of government debt amid the chaos. This move reflects a flight to quality—a classic response when risk appetite wanes.

The US Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback’s strength against a basket of major currencies, ticked up 0.2 per cent, signalling that despite the turmoil, the dollar retains its allure as a safe haven. But the real standout was gold, which soared 1.3 per cent to a fresh record of US$3,123.1 per ounce. That surge underscores a growing demand for tangible assets as investors brace for inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty tied to Trump’s trade agenda.

Speaking of commodities, Brent crude oil climbed 1.5 per cent to US$74.7 per barrel, buoyed by a mix of geopolitical speculation and Trump’s latest rhetoric. The president has tied oil prices to his negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, hinting at “secondary tariffs” on Russian oil if a ceasefire agreement falters.

Trump’s confidence in Putin’s compliance adds a layer of intrigue—could this be a rare moment of stability in an otherwise fractious relationship, or is it just another bargaining chip in his tariff playbook? Either way, the oil market is taking notice, with prices reflecting both supply concerns and the broader inflationary fears stoked by trade disruptions.

Closer to home in Asia, there’s a glimmer of resilience amid the storm. China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for March showed an uptick, suggesting that Beijing’s aggressive stimulus measures are bearing fruit. With the government frontloading support to counter external pressures—like the looming US tariffs—China’s economy appears to be finding its footing.

This buoyancy spilled over into early trading today, with Asian equity indices posting gains. It’s a stark contrast to the US, where equity index futures are pointing to a lower open. Investors in Asia seem to be betting on China’s ability to weather the trade war, at least for now, while their American counterparts remain on edge.

The cryptocurrency market, ever a barometer of risk sentiment, is no stranger to this turbulence. Bitcoin, the poster child of digital assets, hit a two-week low yesterday before rebounding slightly to US$83,465—a one per cent uptick, according to CoinGecko. That’s still a far cry from its January 20 peak of US$108,800, notched on Trump’s inauguration day, representing a 23 per cent drop. Ethereum and Solana followed a similar pattern, with gains of 1.1 per cent to US$1,840 and 1.4 per cent to US$125, respectively.

The crypto market’s seesaw performance reflects the broader unease gripping investors as they await Trump’s tariff announcement tomorrow. Some analysts, like the CEO of Coin Bureau, see a silver lining—predicting a potential 360 per cent breakout for Bitcoin this month, echoing its 2017 surge. Others, however, caution that the immediate fallout from tariffs could push prices lower, perhaps to the US$73,000-US$75,000 range, before any recovery takes hold.

What’s driving this crypto volatility? For one, there’s the persistent demand from unexpected quarters. Despite strict bans, Chinese investors continue to pour into Bitcoin and Tether, defying regulatory crackdowns. This hidden demand could be a wildcard, amplifying Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against geopolitical and economic instability. Then there’s Japan’s Metaplanet Inc., a publicly listed firm that just issued US$13.3 million in zero-interest bonds to bolster its Bitcoin reserves.

Moves like these signal a growing institutional embrace of crypto as a strategic asset, even as short-term market jitters persist. My take? The tariff uncertainty might kneecap Bitcoin in the near term, but its long-term narrative as a store of value could gain traction if inflation spikes and traditional currencies wobble.

Back to the broader market, the Federal Reserve’s voice is adding another layer of complexity. New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent voter on the FOMC, struck a cautious tone, warning of higher inflation risks this year. He emphasised that monetary policy remains “moderately restrictive” and that the Fed can hold steady for a while—a signal that rate cuts aren’t imminent.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, though not a voter this year, echoed that sentiment, insisting the central bank needs clear evidence of cooling inflation before easing. This hawkish tilt is a double-edged sword: it bolsters the dollar and bonds but keeps pressure on risk assets like stocks and crypto. Investors hoping for a dovish lifeline may be left wanting, especially as the Fed eyes this week’s US payroll report and global PMI data for fresh clues.

From my vantage point, we’re at a pivotal moment. Trump’s tariff gambit is a high-risk, high-reward play—potentially a masterstroke if it forces concessions from trading partners, but a disaster if it sparks a full-blown trade war and recession. The markets are pricing in the latter, with the S&P 500’s correction and gold’s rally screaming caution. Yet there’s an undercurrent of opportunity.

China’s rebound, Asia’s resilience, and Bitcoin’s defiant demand suggest that pockets of strength could emerge from the chaos. The US economy, for all its tariff-induced woes, still has robust fundamentals—corporate earnings remain solid, and consumer spending, while shaky, hasn’t collapsed. If Trump’s tariffs land softer than feared tomorrow, we might see a relief rally; if they’re as harsh as rumoured, brace for more pain.

Looking ahead, this week’s data drops—US payrolls and global PMIs—will be critical. A strong jobs report could ease recession fears but fuel inflation worries, complicating the Fed’s calculus. Weak PMIs, especially in Europe or Asia, might amplify the tariff fallout.

For now, I’d wager the market stays choppy, with safe havens like gold and bonds holding their appeal. Bitcoin? It’s a wild card—capable of plunging or soaring depending on how the tariff dust settles.

I have seen cycles come and go, I’d say this: buckle up. April 2025 is shaping up to be a rollercoaster, and tomorrow’s announcement could set the tone for months to come. The facts are still unfolding, but one thing’s clear—the world’s financial stage has rarely been this gripping.

 

Source: https://e27.co/gold-soars-stocks-teeter-crypto-seesaw-the-world-awaits-trumps-trade-hammer-20250401/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j