Tag Archives: stocks

Bitcoin’s big moment: Can crypto shine as stocks stumble before Jackson Hole?

Bitcoin’s big moment: Can crypto shine as stocks stumble before Jackson Hole?

Investors face a muted global risk sentiment, with attention firmly fixed on the Jackson Hole symposium starting today and culminating in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow.

This annual gathering in Wyoming often sets the tone for monetary policy, and with recent data showing a cooling US labour market and persistent inflation concerns, markets anticipate signals on potential rate cuts. President Donald Trump added fuel to the fire by demanding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook resign over mortgage fraud allegations, a move that underscores ongoing tensions between the administration and the central bank.

Such political pressure could amplify volatility, especially as the Fed navigates a delicate balance between supporting growth and taming prices. In my view, this environment highlights the fragility of investor confidence, where policy missteps could trigger sharper corrections, but also opens opportunities for resilient assets like cryptocurrencies to shine amid traditional market wobbles.

US stock markets extended their downward trajectory yesterday, reflecting waning enthusiasm for technology stocks, particularly in artificial intelligence sectors that drove much of the earlier rally. The S&P 500 dipped 0.24 per cent, the Nasdaq fell 0.67 per cent, and the Dow Jones eked out a modest 0.04 per cent gain.

Consumer discretionary stocks lagged significantly, dropping 1.2 per cent, as the administration broadened tariffs on steel and aluminum to include various consumer goods. This expansion aligns with Trump’s protectionist agenda, which he has touted as a way to bolster domestic manufacturing, but it risks escalating trade tensions and inflating costs for businesses and consumers alike.

These tariffs represent a double edged sword: they protect certain industries in the short term but could stifle broader economic momentum, especially if retaliatory measures from trading partners emerge. Recent data from Schwab’s market update shows major indexes sputtering after a featureless session, with tech arresting its slide but only inching up, underscoring limited buying interest amid elevated price-to-earnings ratios. Investors appear cautious, weighing the potential for a soft landing against the reality of slowing growth.

Bond markets offered a slight reprieve, with US Treasury yields inching lower. The 10-year yield slipped one basis point to 4.28 per cent, while the two-year yield also declined one basis point to 3.74 per cent. This modest dip reflects expectations of easing monetary policy, as traders bet on rate cuts to support the economy. The spread between the 10-year and two-year yields remains a focal point, with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data indicating positive values that could imply future growth, though negative spreads have historically signalled downturns.

In my opinion, these yield movements suggest markets price in a dovish Fed pivot at Jackson Hole, where Powell’s speech could confirm or dash hopes for a September rate cut. Previews from Investing.com highlight all eyes on Powell as the Fed navigates a policy tightrope amid stagflation fears. If history serves as a guide, insurance cuts like those in 2019 have boosted equities, but reactive cuts during recessions often coincide with weaker returns.

Currencies and commodities presented a mixed picture. The US Dollar Index closed largely unchanged at 98.22, providing little directional cue. Gold climbed 0.9 per cent to US$3,345 per ounce, benefiting from a softer dollar and safe-haven demand ahead of Jackson Hole. Brent crude advanced 1.6 per cent to US$67 per barrel, spurred by reports of a six-million-barrel drop in US crude inventories.

Oil prices gained slightly in Asian trading, with larger-than-expected declines in crude and fuel supporting the uptick, as noted by Reuters. I see gold’s resilience as a hedge against uncertainty, particularly with geopolitical risks like the ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks between Trump and Putin potentially easing sanctions on Russian oil. Commodities like these often thrive when traditional assets falter, and the current setup reinforces their role in diversified portfolios.

Asian markets mirrored the global unease, closing mixed yesterday with sharp losses in export-reliant economies. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.51 per cent, and Taiwan’s index dropped 2.99 per cent, driven by a weak July export report from Japan. Early trading today showed most indices opening higher, but caution prevails.

Bloomberg reports updated stock indexes in Asia-Pacific, with China e-commerce stocks’ 230 per cent rally at risk amid concerns. These declines stem from tariff fears and slowing global demand, yet the rebound in early sessions indicates bargain hunting. US equity futures point to a lower open, aligning with the broader wait-and-see approach before Jackson Hole.

Shifting to cryptocurrencies, recent insights from Glassnode illuminate intriguing divisions among Bitcoin investors. The “First Buyers” group increased their stakes by 10 per cent, seizing opportunities during market dips, while “Conviction Buyers” also bolstered holdings by 10 per cent, adopting a cautious yet hopeful stance.

Profit-Takers offloaded 5.4 per cent more assets to capitalise on gains, and Loss Sellers emerged, shedding positions amid creeping losses. Glassnode’s on-chain analysis reveals short-term holders selling at a loss for the first time in seven months, a trend that rings alarm bells but could signal a necessary market reset.

X posts from Glassnode highlight limited realised losses, suggesting newer Bitcoin investors defend their cost basis near US$112,000.

From my standpoint, these shifts underscore Bitcoin’s maturing ecosystem, where long-term holders exhibit resilience, but short-term volatility tests newcomers. The STH-SOPR dipping below 1 mirrors past corrections, yet the average unrealised loss of 10.6 per cent among short-term holders indicates panic selling that might create buying opportunities for institutions.

Institutional interest remains a cornerstone of Bitcoin’s stability, with anticipated ETF inflows amplifying demand despite macroeconomic headwinds. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$3.37 billion in net inflows last week, pushing Bitcoin from US$116,000 to US$124,000 before a pullback.

Cumulative inflows stand at US$54.85 billion, with assets under management at US$150.9 billion, even as recent outflows hit US$643 million. Trump’s executive order allowing cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans opens the door for broader adoption, potentially injecting billions from retirement savings.

The Department of Labor rescinded 2022 guidance discouraging crypto in plans, democratising access to alternative assets. I believe this policy shift marks a pivotal moment, bridging traditional finance and crypto, though risks like volatility persist for retirement investors.

Bitcoin’s consolidation ripples through altcoins like Ethereum and Solana, with Bitcoin’s market dominance at approximately 58.89 per cent. CoinMarketCap charts show Bitcoin dominance at 59.62 per cent, a slight uptick reflecting its safe-haven status. Ethereum ETFs outpaced Bitcoin inflows for five straight days, with corporate treasuries accumulating ETH amid falling exchange supply. This interdependence means Bitcoin’s stability bolsters altcoins, but a breakout above key resistance could trigger broader rallies. Solana, in particular, benefits from its speed and low fees, positioning it for growth if institutional flows diversify.

Hong Kong’s foray into spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs adds an international dimension, with recent debuts showing cautious investor appetite. MicroBit Capital Management launched ETFs tracking US dollar prices of Bitcoin and Ether, with the Bitcoin ETF (stock code 3430) rising 0.1 per cent to HK$7.82 (US$1.00) and the Ether ETF (3425) up 2.8 per cent to HK$8.03 (US$1.03).

Trading volumes reached about HK$29.68 million (US$3.80 million), per SoSoValue, contrasting with US euphoria but aligning with new stablecoin rules. Pando Finance teamed with OSL Exchange for its Bitcoin ETF launch on July 18, powered by CME CF benchmarks. Hong Kong’s stablecoin regime, effective August 1, requires licenses for issuers, with the first batch expected early next year. The HKMA’s public registry for licensed issuers enhances transparency. I regard this as a strategic move to position Hong Kong as a crypto hub, potentially attracting Asian capital and fostering innovation in fiat-backed stablecoins for trade and payments.

Overall, these developments paint a picture of interconnected markets navigating uncertainty. Traditional assets grapple with tariffs and policy risks, while cryptocurrencies demonstrate resilience through institutional backing and regulatory progress. Jackson Hole could catalyse shifts: a dovish Powell might ignite risk appetite, lifting stocks and crypto, whereas hawkish tones could strengthen the dollar and pressure yields. X discussions emphasise the symposium’s importance, with investors parsing every nuance.

In my experience, such events often precede turning points, and with Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics showing conviction among long-term holders despite short-term pain, I remain optimistic on its trajectory. The US allowing crypto in 401(k)s could unleash trillions in fresh capital, bridging generations of investors. Yet, caution prevails—volatility remains high, and diversified approaches win in the long run. As we await Powell’s words, markets hold their breath, but history favours those who adapt swiftly to emerging trends.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoins-big-moment-can-crypto-shine-as-stocks-stumble-before-jackson-hole-20250821/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Global sentiment lifts off: The US-EU agreement’s ripple through stocks, commodities, and digital currencies

Global sentiment lifts off: The US-EU agreement’s ripple through stocks, commodities, and digital currencies

The announcement of a US-EU trade agreement on Sunday has acted as a catalyst, easing tensions that had previously weighed on investor confidence. This development has had a ripple effect across various markets, influencing equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

As we approach a week marked by high-stakes economic events and corporate earnings, understanding these dynamics becomes increasingly crucial. In my view, the renewed optimism is a welcome change, though the mixed signals in some markets suggest that caution remains warranted.

Let me tell you more.

A boost from the US-EU trade agreement

The US-EU trade agreement has emerged as a pivotal factor in lifting global risk sentiment. For months, trade uncertainty had cast a shadow over markets, with investors wary of escalating tariffs and disruptions to global supply chains.

The deal announced on Sunday has alleviated some of these concerns, fostering a more risk-on environment. Investors are now more inclined to allocate capital to growth-oriented assets like stocks, rather than seeking refuge in traditional safe havens like bonds or gold.

This shift reflects a broader belief that economic stability might be within reach, at least in the short term. However, with major events like the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and US payroll data looming, the sustainability of this optimism remains an open question.

US markets: Choppy trading and rising yields

In the United States, stock markets closed mixed after a volatile session, capturing the complexity of the current environment. The S&P 500 inched up by 0.02 per cent, signalling modest gains, while the NASDAQ climbed 0.33 per cent, driven by strength in technology stocks.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped by 0.14 per cent, hinting at lingering caution among traders. This uneven performance suggests that while the trade agreement has bolstered confidence, investors are still grappling with uncertainties tied to upcoming economic releases and corporate earnings.

US Treasury yields, which often serve as a barometer of market sentiment, edged higher across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2.2 basis points to 4.410 per cent, and the two-year yield ticked up by 0.2 basis points to 3.926 per cent.

These increases suggest that investors are shifting away from the safety of government bonds, aligning with the broader risk-on sentiment. Higher yields also reflect expectations of stronger economic growth, though they could pressure equity valuations if the trend accelerates.

The US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against major currencies, advanced by 1.01 per cent. A stronger dollar typically accompanies periods of economic optimism, as it did here, fuelled by the trade deal and improving risk appetite. This dollar rally could pose challenges for US exporters, but it also underscores the market’s faith in the resilience of the US economy.

Commodities: Diverging paths for gold and brent crude

Commodities have displayed divergent trends amid the shifting sentiment. Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, extended its retreat, falling by 0.68 per cent to US$3,315 per ounce.

This decline is understandable in the context of a rising risk appetite, as investors reduce their holdings of gold in favor of assets with higher potential returns. I see this as a natural response to the trade agreement, though gold could regain favor if new uncertainties emerge.

In contrast, Brent crude oil surged by 1.9 per cent to US$70 per barrel, propelled by President Trump’s proposal to impose secondary tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil ahead of a 50-day deadline. This move has raised concerns about a tighter oil supply, which is expected to boost prices.

The rally also reflects the improving global economic outlook, which tends to lift energy demand. The energy market remains vulnerable to geopolitical shifts, and any escalation in trade disputes could alter this trajectory.

Asian markets and US futures: A mixed outlook

Asian stock markets mirrored the uneven performance seen in the US, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 pulling back by 1.1 per cent. This decline likely stemmed from profit-taking after recent gains, though it highlights that not all regions are fully embracing the risk-on wave. Despite this, US equity index futures suggest that US stocks will open higher, pointing to sustained positive momentum.

Investors are now fixated on a packed week ahead, featuring the FOMC meeting, US ISM manufacturing data, non-farm payrolls, second-quarter GDP figures, and earnings from four of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants. These events will likely determine whether the current optimism persists or wanes.

Cryptocurrencies: Ethereum’s surge and Bitcoin’s mining milestone

The cryptocurrency market has also captured attention, with Ethereum briefly topping US$3,900, its highest level since December, before pulling back. This surge underscores growing investor enthusiasm for Ethereum, driven by its expanding role in decentralised finance and smart contract applications.

Bernstein analysts have noted that Ethereum treasuries, companies holding Ethereum as a reserve asset, are adopting a distinct approach compared to their Bitcoin-focused counterparts. These treasuries generate staking rewards, providing a yield on their holdings, which marks a significant evolution in how institutions utilise cryptocurrencies.

The analysts caution that this model introduces liquidity and security risks. Staking contracts, while generally liquid, can require days-long queues to unstake, forcing Ethereum treasuries to balance availability with yield optimisation. More advanced strategies, such as restaking or DeFi-based yield generation, further complicate matters by exposing firms to vulnerabilities in smart contracts.

This trade-off between yield and risk highlights the maturing nature of the crypto market, where innovation often comes with growing pains. Companies will need to navigate these challenges carefully to sustain Ethereum’s momentum.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has seen its mining power approach a new record, with the 7-day average hashrate reaching 942 exahashes per second. This figure sits just below the all-time high of 943.6 exahashes per second set in mid-June, according to data from Blockchain.com.

The hashrate, which tracks the total computing power dedicated to mining Bitcoin, offers insight into the network’s security and the confidence of miners. The recent surge suggests that miners remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, despite its price cooling off in recent weeks.

This increase in mining power has persisted despite a new all-time high in Bitcoin’s difficulty, which adjusts to make mining more challenging as more power is added. Miners’ willingness to expand operations under these conditions reflects their belief in future price gains, likely driven by Bitcoin’s historical resilience and growing institutional adoption.

I find this development encouraging, as it signals a robust foundation for Bitcoin, though it also raises questions about energy consumption and profitability if prices stagnate.

My perspective: Optimism tempered by caution

From my standpoint, the advance in global risk sentiment is a positive development, particularly after months of trade-related uncertainty. The US-EU agreement has provided a much-needed lift, and its effects are evident across equities, currencies, and commodities.

The strength in the US dollar and Brent crude, coupled with Ethereum’s price surge and Bitcoin’s mining milestone, paints a picture of a market eager to move forward. Yet, the mixed performance of US and Asian stock markets, along with gold’s decline, reminds us that not all investors are thoroughly convinced.

The week ahead will be crucial in determining whether this momentum is sustained. The FOMC meeting could signal shifts in monetary policy, while economic data, such as payrolls and GDP, will shed light on the health of the US economy. Earnings from tech giants will also play a role, given their outsized influence on market indices.

In my opinion, the current risk-on environment offers opportunities, but investors should remain vigilant. The cryptocurrency space, with its blend of innovation and risk, exemplifies this duality. Ethereum treasuries and Bitcoin miners are pushing boundaries, yet they face hurdles that could temper their progress.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-sentiment-lifts-off-the-us-eu-agreements-ripple-through-stocks-commodities-and-digital-currencies-20250729/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Stocks, treasuries, gold, oil, and Bitcoin in motion: The jobs and policy effect

Stocks, treasuries, gold, oil, and Bitcoin in motion: The jobs and policy effect

At the heart of this storm is the latest US employment report, which has once again defied expectations, alongside the final approval of President Trump’s US$3.4 trillion tax and spending package. These events have sent ripples across asset classes, influencing everything from stock indices and Treasury yields to the US dollar, gold, oil, and even Bitcoin.

I want to share my perspective on their implications and interconnections, while grounding the discussion in the facts and data provided. My aim is to paint a clear picture of the current market landscape, delving into both the opportunities and risks that lie ahead.

The US employment report: Strength with subtle cracks

The US employment report for June has been a focal point for markets, delivering a headline number that suggests continued economic vigour. Nonfarm payrolls, which track the number of jobs added or lost outside the agricultural sector, rose by 147,000, well above the consensus estimate of 106,000. This marks the fourth consecutive month that the labour market has surprised to the upside, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient US economy.

A strong payroll figure typically signals that businesses are confident enough to expand their workforce, a sign of robust demand and economic health. Paired with this, the unemployment rate, a measure of the percentage of the labour force actively seeking work, eased unexpectedly to 4.1 per cent, better than the anticipated 4.3 per cent. This drop suggests a tightening labor market, which could pave the way for wage growth and bolster consumer spending, both critical drivers of economic activity.

However, the report isn’t without its nuances. Beneath these rosy headlines lies a softening in private activity growth, a detail that tempers the optimism. This softening could indicate that, while headline job creation remains strong, specific sectors —perhaps those tied to private investment or discretionary spending —are losing momentum.

From my perspective, this duality in the data is a reminder that economic strength isn’t uniform. The labor market’s resilience is encouraging, but the cracks in private activity suggest that policymakers and investors should remain vigilant. If this softening persists, it could signal broader challenges ahead, especially as the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves on interest rates.

Broader economic indicators: Signs of resilience

Beyond the employment report, other economic indicators suggest that the economy is holding its ground. Initial jobless claims, which count new filings for unemployment benefits, declined in the latest data, as did continuing claims, which track those receiving ongoing support. These reductions imply that job losses are slowing and that unemployed workers are finding new roles more quickly, both positive signs for labor market stability.

Additionally, the ISM Services index, a key gauge of activity in the services sector (which dominates the US economy), returned to expansion territory. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and this rebound suggests that the services sector is shrugging off any prior weakness, contributing to overall economic momentum.

These indicators bolster the case for cautious optimism. The decline in jobless claims aligns with the strong payrolls data, while the ISM Services rebound hints at broad-based resilience. However, I’d caution that these metrics are snapshots, backward-looking by nature, and don’t fully account for future uncertainties, such as the impact of new fiscal policies or global headwinds.

Still, for now, they reinforce the narrative of a US economy that’s weathering challenges better than many had feared.

President Trump’s tax and spending package: A double-edged sword

Shifting to the political arena, President Trump’s US$3.4 trillion tax and spending package has cleared a significant hurdle, passing the House with a razor-thin 218-214 vote. This landmark legislation blends tax cuts with significant spending increases, aiming to juice economic growth while addressing infrastructure and social priorities.

The tax reductions could put more money in the pockets of consumers and businesses, potentially spurring spending and investment. At the same time, the spending component promises to inject capital into the economy, supporting jobs and public projects.

The package’s passage is a double-edged sword. It’s a win for growth-oriented policies, likely contributing to the upbeat mood in equity markets. On the other hand, its hefty price tag raises red flags about the federal deficit, which is already substantial. Critics argue that this could fuel inflation in the long run, forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy more aggressively.

The narrow vote margin underscores the contentious nature of this move—it’s a bold bet on growth, but one that hinges on execution and favorable economic conditions aligning. If successful, it could amplify the current economic momentum; if not, it risks exacerbating fiscal imbalances at a time when resilience is already being tested.

Stock markets: Riding the wave of optimism

The stock market has greeted these developments with open arms. The S&P 500 rose by 0.83 per cent, the NASDAQ climbed 0.99 per cent, and the Dow Jones gained 0.81 per cent. These gains reflect a wave of optimism, likely fuelled by the strong jobs data and the fiscal stimulus promised by Trump’s package.

Investors seem to be betting on higher corporate earnings and consumer demand, both of which could flow from these catalysts. However, early trading signals from Asian equity indices and US futures suggest a potential pullback, hinting at profit-taking or lingering doubts about the sustainability of the rally.

The rally is justified given the data, but it comes with risks. Stocks are sensitive to interest rate expectations, and as we’ll see with Treasury yields, the market is pricing in a shift. If rates rise too quickly, or if global risk sentiment sours, these gains could unwind. For now, though, the upward movement reflects a market eager to embrace good news—a classic case of sentiment driving prices, at least in the short term.

Treasury yields: The bear-flattening signal

The US Treasury yield curve offers a more sobering perspective, undergoing a sharp bear flattening. This phenomenon occurs when short-term yields rise faster than long-term ones, narrowing the gap between them. The two-year Treasury yield jumped 9.5 basis points to 3.880 per cent, while the 10-year yield rose 6.9 basis points to 4.346 per cent.

This shift is tied to the strong jobs report, which has recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors now anticipate a tighter policy stance to curb potential inflation, pushing short-term yields higher as bond prices fall.

A flatter yield curve can signal mixed messages. Historically, an inverted curve (where short-term yields exceed long-term ones) has foreshadowed recessions, but we’re not there yet. Instead, this bear flattening suggests confidence in near-term growth, hence the rise in yields, but tempered expectations for the longer haul.

I view this as a natural market adjustment to the data. It serves as a reminder that borrowing costs are creeping up, which could eventually weigh on growth-sensitive sectors such as housing or corporate investment.

US dollar and gold: A tale of strength and retreat

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.4 per cent after the jobs report. A stronger dollar often follows robust economic data, as it boosts demand for dollar-denominated assets and signals tighter policy ahead. This strength, however, pressured gold, which slid 0.9 per cent to US$3,326 per ounce. Gold thrives in times of uncertainty or low interest rates, but with yields rising and the dollar strengthening, its appeal as a haven is diminishing.

I view the dollar’s recovery as a logical outcome of the data, though its export-dampening effects could pose challenges. Gold’s decline, meanwhile, doesn’t surprise me. It’s a classic reaction to this environment. That said, if geopolitical risks or inflation fears resurface, gold could regain its lustre quickly.

Brent crude: Balancing supply and demand

Brent crude oil slipped 0.4 per cent to US$69 per barrel, even as OPEC+ prepares to add 411,000 barrels per day in August. This drop likely reflects concerns about demand, possibly tied to global growth uncertainties, outweighing the supply increase for now.

The direction of oil prices will hinge on how demand holds up, especially in key markets like China, and whether OPEC+ adheres to its plan. The modest decline suggests a market in wait-and-see mode, which feels prudent given the mixed signals elsewhere.

Bitcoin: Volatility meets technical headwinds

Bitcoin’s journey has been a rollercoaster, rallying to US$110,500 before hitting resistance at US$110,000. Trading above US$109,000, it’s showing stability, but technical analysis reveals bearish divergences across multiple timeframes—15-minute, one-hour, four-hour, and daily charts.

These divergences, where price rises but momentum indicators like the RSI weaken, suggest a fading bullish momentum and a possible pullback to US$106,000-US$107,500. Despite this, long-term trends remain bullish, buoyed by US$603 million in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading at US$237.13 million.

Bitcoin is cautiously mixed. The ETF inflows signal strong institutional interest, a bullish undercurrent. Yet, the technical warnings can’t be ignored. US$110,000 feels like a psychological ceiling that needs more conviction to break. Traders betting on US$112,000 might be right eventually, but the selling pressure suggests traps in the near term. I’d watch those support levels closely.

Wrapping up

The global financial markets are at a fascinating juncture. The US economy’s resilience, underscored by jobs data and fiscal policy, is driving risk sentiment forward, yet subtle cracks and technical signals urge caution.

Stocks and the dollar are riding high, but yields, gold, oil, and Bitcoin reflect a more complex reality. In my view, the interplay of these factors points to opportunity tempered by vigilance. Growth is here, but its sustainability depends on how these pieces evolve. For investors, staying informed and nimble will be key in navigating what’s next.

 

Source: https://e27.co/stocks-treasuries-gold-oil-and-bitcoin-in-motion-the-jobs-and-policy-effect-20250704/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j