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Global markets reel as Trump tariffs slam stocks and Bitcoin prices

Global markets reel as Trump tariffs slam stocks and Bitcoin prices

On April 4, 2025, the US stock market experienced its worst single-day performance in years, shedding approximately US$2.5 trillion in value as investors fled to safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and gold. The MSCI US index plummeted by 4.9 per cent, with particularly brutal declines in the energy sector, down 7.5 per cent, and information technology, which fell 7.0 per cent.

Meanwhile, defensive sectors like consumer staples, up 0.7 per cent, and utilities, down just 0.6 per cent, managed to weather the storm far better than their cyclical counterparts. This dramatic shift in market sentiment has been fuelled by fears that Trump’s tariffs—the steepest increase in American trade barriers in over a century—could choke economic growth, drive up inflation, and potentially tip the US economy into a recession.

Trump’s latest tariff policy, announced after the market closed yesterday, imposes a blanket 10 per cent tariff on imports from every country in the world, effective April 5. Citing his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, the president framed the move as a necessary step to protect American industries and workers. However, economists are sounding the alarm about the near-term consequences. Higher tariffs are widely expected to increase the cost of imported goods, pushing up prices for American consumers already grappling with inflationary pressures.

At the same time, retaliatory measures from trading partners could dampen US exports, further slowing economic activity. Some analysts warn that the combination of higher prices and weaker growth could create a stagflationary environment, while others see a full-blown recession as a real possibility if the tariffs remain in place for an extended period. With markets now laser-focused on Friday’s US jobs report and an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, investors are desperate for clues about how policymakers might respond to this escalating crisis.

The bond market has also reacted decisively, with Treasury yields dropping as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts grow. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 10.2 basis points to 4.03 per cent, while the 2-year yield slid 17.7 basis points to 3.68 per cent, reflecting heightened recession fears and a flight to safety.

The US dollar index, meanwhile, shed 1.7 per cent, continuing its downward trend as investors reassess the outlook for US growth. Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, held steady at US$3,100 per ounce despite a modest 0.6 per cent dip, buoyed by persistent demand amid the uncertainty.

On the commodities front, Brent crude oil took a significant hit, tumbling 6.4 per cent to US$70 per barrel as traders worried that tariffs would sap global demand growth just as OPEC+ ramps up supply. Asian equities followed Wall Street’s lead, opening sharply lower, and US equity futures suggest stocks will start the day down an additional 0.2 per cent, signalling that the pain may not be over yet.

The cryptocurrency market has not been immune to this turmoil, with Bitcoin experiencing a sharp decline in tandem with other risk assets. After hitting an intraday high of nearly US$88,000 less than 24 hours ago, Bitcoin plunged to a low of US$81,300—a drop of more than seven per cent—before recovering slightly to trade around US$83,000 as of this writing. The sell-off reflects broader market dynamics, as investors pull back from speculative assets in favour of safer bets.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has also struggled. After failing to hold above the US$1,850 level, ETH dipped as low as US$1,751 and is now consolidating below the US$1,820 mark and its 100-hourly simple moving average. Technical indicators suggest resistance near US$1,840, with a bearish trend line forming at US$1,810 on the hourly chart. For Ethereum to mount a meaningful recovery, it would need to break through these levels and push toward US$1,880, but the current market mood makes that a tall order.

In my opinion, Ethereum’s performance is critical to sparking a broader crypto bull market—carries significant weight given its central role in the digital asset ecosystem. Ethereum remains the backbone of decentralised finance (DeFi), powering a vast array of applications from decentralised exchanges (DEXs) to non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Recent data underscores its resilience: in March 2025, Ethereum reclaimed its position as the leading blockchain for DEX trading, overtaking Solana with a trading volume of US$64 billion compared to Solana’s US$52 billion.

Platforms like Uniswap and Curve Finance have driven this surge, reinforcing Ethereum’s dominance even as it grapples with challenges like a historically low ETH burn rate and declining transaction fees following the implementation of EIP-1559. The drop in the burn rate has led to an increase in ETH’s total supply, raising concerns among some investors about inflationary pressures within the network. Yet, Ethereum’s ability to hold its ground amid these headwinds speaks to its enduring strength and adaptability.

Solana’s fading momentum in the DEX space, meanwhile, highlights the shifting tides in the crypto market. The hype around Solana-based meme coins, which fuelled much of its trading volume on platforms like Raydium and Pump.fun, has dissipated, allowing Ethereum to reassert its supremacy.

This resurgence is a testament to Ethereum’s robust infrastructure and developer community, which continue to innovate despite high gas fees and scalability concerns. For a bull market to take hold, Ethereum would indeed need to lead the charge, setting the tone for smaller altcoins and driving renewed investor confidence.

However, the current macroeconomic environment—marked by Trump’s tariffs, a faltering US economy, and a risk-off sentiment—poses a formidable obstacle. If Ethereum can break through its technical resistance levels and capitalise on its DeFi leadership, it could spark the kind of momentum you envision. But for now, the broader market’s woes are keeping a lid on that potential.

Stepping back, the implications of Trump’s tariff measures extend far beyond the immediate market reaction. The US has long prided itself on economic exceptionalism, underpinned by robust growth, a strong dollar, and a dominant position in global trade.

Yet, this latest policy risks unraveling that narrative. Higher tariffs could disrupt supply chains, erode corporate profits, and alienate trading partners at a time when geopolitical tensions are already running high. The flight to haven assets suggests that investors are bracing for a prolonged period of uncertainty, and the upcoming US jobs report will be a critical litmus test.

A weak report could amplify recession fears, prompting the Fed to accelerate rate cuts—a move that might cushion the blow to stocks and crypto but could further weaken the dollar. Powell’s speech will also be pivotal, as markets look for any hint of how the central bank plans to navigate this tariff-induced storm.

In my view, the markets are at a crossroads. The tariff announcement has exposed vulnerabilities in the global economy that were previously masked by optimism about US growth and technological innovation. While defensive assets like gold and Treasuries may offer short-term refuge, the longer-term outlook hinges on how businesses and consumers adapt to higher costs and slower growth.

For risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, the path forward looks treacherous, but opportunities could emerge if the Fed steps in decisively or if the tariffs are scaled back under political pressure. Ethereum’s role as a crypto bellwether adds another layer of intrigue—its ability to rally despite these headwinds could indeed signal a turning point for the digital asset space.

“For now, though, caution reigns supreme, and the world is watching closely as this high-stakes drama unfolds.” — Anndy Lian

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-reel-as-trump-tariffs-slam-stocks-and-bitcoin-prices-20250404/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

US tariffs vs crypto wins: An economic shift

US tariffs vs crypto wins: An economic shift

I’ve been closely following the unfolding events surrounding President Trump’s announcement of a 25 per cent tariff on all autos manufactured outside the United States, set to take effect on April 2, 2025. This decision, coupled with the ripple effects across financial markets, commodities, and the cryptocurrency sector, paints a complex picture of risk, opportunity, and uncertainty.

My perspective on this topic is shaped by a careful analysis of the data, historical precedents, and the broader implications for both traditional and decentralised financial systems. What we’re witnessing is a pivotal moment where geopolitics, trade policy, and technological innovation are colliding, with far-reaching consequences for investors, industries, and everyday consumers.

Let’s start with the tariffs themselves. The announcement of a 25 per cent levy on imported autos and car parts is a bold move, one that harkens back to Trump’s earlier trade policies during his first term. The stated goal, presumably, is to bolster domestic manufacturing and protect American jobs—a narrative that resonates with his political base. However, the immediate market reaction suggests that investors are less convinced of its efficacy.

Major US indices retreated, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.1 per cent, the Dow Jones slipping 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq taking a steeper 2.0 per cent hit. The technology sector, already reeling from negative news in AI and data centre developments, bore the brunt of this decline. The VIX, often dubbed the “fear gauge,” spiked 7.1 per cent to 18.36, signalling heightened volatility and unease among traders. This isn’t surprising—tariffs introduce uncertainty, and markets despise uncertainty.

The impact on the auto industry is particularly stark. Countries like Japan, Germany, South Korea, Mexico, and Canada, which collectively account for a significant share of US auto imports, now face a steep cost increase. For example, Japan’s Toyota and Germany’s Volkswagen rely heavily on the US market, and a 25 per cent tariff could force them to either absorb the cost (cutting into profit margins) or pass it on to consumers (raising prices).

Domestic producers like General Motors and Ford aren’t immune either, as the tariff extends to car parts—many of which are sourced globally. This could disrupt supply chains and elevate production costs, potentially offsetting any competitive advantage the tariffs aim to create.

I see this as a double-edged sword: while it might encourage some manufacturers to relocate production to the US, the short-term pain of higher costs and disrupted logistics could outweigh those gains, especially in an industry already grappling with inflation and semiconductor shortages.

Turning to the bond market, US Treasuries yields climbed across the curve, with the 2-year yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.017per cent and the 10-year yield advancing 3.9 basis points to 4.352 per cent. This uptick reflects a shift in investor sentiment—higher yields suggest expectations of stronger economic growth or, more likely, inflationary pressures stemming from the tariffs. The US Dollar Index, up 0.4 per cent to a three-week high, further underscores this flight to safety and confidence in the dollar amid global uncertainty.

Commodities offered a mixed picture: gold held steady, a sign that investors aren’t fully panicking yet, while Brent crude rose 1.1 per cent to US$74 per barrel, buoyed by reports of declining US inventories. In Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index edged up 0.2 per cent, with Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite surging 3.8 per cent on domestic dividend news, though early trading hinted at broader regional weakness. This divergence highlights how global risk sentiment is fracturing—some markets are finding local resilience, while others brace for a tariff-induced storm.

Now, let’s pivot to the cryptocurrency angle, which adds another layer of intrigue. On the same day as the tariff announcement, Congress struck down an IRS regulation that would have required decentralised digital asset platforms to report customer transactions starting in 2027. This move, which saves the crypto industry an estimated US$4 billion in taxes, is a significant win for the sector—and, notably, for President Trump’s own World Liberty Financial platform.

Decentralised exchanges like Uniswap had argued that the rule was impractical, given their lack of custody over user assets or access to personal data. I find this development fascinating because it juxtaposes Trump’s protectionist trade stance with a deregulatory push in the crypto space, potentially benefiting his personal financial interests. It’s a reminder that policy decisions often carry a personal dimension, and here, the optics are hard to ignore.

Meanwhile, GameStop’s pivot to Bitcoin adds a wild card to the mix. The retailer’s plan to sell US$1.3 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases—following the playbook of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy—sent its stock soaring 12 per cent on March 26. This isn’t just a quirky corporate move; it reflects a growing trend of companies embracing cryptocurrency as a treasury reserve asset.

With Bitcoin’s price historically sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, the tariff-induced uncertainty could either amplify its appeal as a hedge or expose it to sharper volatility. Ethereum, too, is in the spotlight with its Pectra upgrade successfully launching on the Hoodi testnet, though its price dipped three per cent amid a bearish technical pattern. If Pectra hits the mainnet by April 25, as developers hope, it could bolster Ethereum’s long-term utility—yet the immediate market mood remains cautious.

The stablecoin front offers a counterpoint of stability. Custodia Bank and Vantage Bank’s launch of a US bank-backed stablecoin on Ethereum marks a milestone in bridging traditional finance and blockchain. This isn’t just a technical achievement; it’s a regulatory breakthrough, showing that US banks can tokenise assets within legal bounds.

Caitlin Long of Custodia has long championed this integration, and her optimism seems warranted—stablecoins could smooth out some of the volatility plaguing other cryptocurrencies, especially as tariff-related turbulence looms.

My take on this is that the tariffs are a gamble—potentially revitalising US manufacturing but risking higher costs, strained trade relations, and inflation that could squeeze consumers already stretched thin. The market’s initial retreat and the VIX’s jump suggest that investors share my skepticism about the short-term outlook, though the dollar’s strength hints at underlying resilience in the US economy.

In the crypto realm, deregulation and corporate adoption (GameStop, Trump’s platform) signal a maturing industry, yet one still tethered to broader risk sentiment. The stablecoin breakthrough offers a glimmer of hope for stability, but Ethereum’s wobble reminds us that volatility remains a constant.

I can’t help but think about the people behind these numbers—the autoworkers hoping for job security, the investors watching their portfolios, the crypto enthusiasts betting on a decentralised future. The tariffs might protect some livelihoods but raise car prices for millions. The crypto wins might empower innovation but also widen inequality if gains concentrate among the well-connected.

My role here is not to pick winners or losers. What’s clear is that we’re in for a bumpy ride—April 2, when the tariffs kick in, will be just the beginning. For now, I’ll keep watching the data, the markets, and the human stories, because that’s where the real truth lies.

 

Source: https://e27.co/us-tariffs-vs-crypto-wins-an-economic-shift-20250327/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Treasury yields up, Ethereum down: Tariffs hit traditional and crypto

Treasury yields up, Ethereum down: Tariffs hit traditional and crypto

Looking at the evolving narrative around Trump’s tariff policies and their ripple effects across markets, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. The question at hand offers a rich tapestry of data points—ranging from US economic indicators to equity market movements, Treasury yields, and the intriguing interplay between Trump’s America-First agenda and the crypto sphere.

A blend of optimism for market resilience and a healthy scepticism about the long-term implications of protectionist policies shapes my perspective. Let’s dive into this multifaceted story, unpacking the facts, analysing the trends, and offering a grounded take on what it all means.

The weekend headlines suggesting that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, slated for April 2, might be more targeted and flexible than feared have undeniably lifted global risk sentiment. This shift in tone is a breath of fresh air for investors who’ve been bracing for a blunt, across-the-board trade war that could throttle growth and stoke inflation. The idea that the administration might tailor these tariffs—perhaps sparing certain sectors or negotiating carve-outs—hints at a pragmatic streak beneath the bombastic rhetoric.

It’s a signal that Trump, now in his second term, may be tempering his approach with an eye on economic stability rather than just political theatre. Markets responded swiftly, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.8 per cent, the Dow Jones gaining 1.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq surging 2.3 per cent, driven by a 3.4 per cent rally in the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps—think Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia. This buoyancy reflects a collective sigh of relief, a belief that the tariff storm might not be as destructive as anticipated.

On the data front, the US March PMIs paint a nuanced picture. The uptick in the Services PMI is a welcome surprise, easing fears of a sharp economic slowdown and suggesting that the consumer-driven backbone of the US economy remains intact. Services, after all, account for over two-thirds of US GDP, so any sign of resilience here is a bulwark against recession chatter.

But the manufacturing PMI slipping back into contraction territory—below the 50 threshold—raises a red flag. The culprit? A tariff-related spike in materials costs. Manufacturers are already feeling the pinch of uncertainty, with supply chains recalibrating and input prices ticking up.

This divergence between services and manufacturing underscores a bifurcated economy: one part humming along, the other creaking under trade policy pressures. It’s a reminder that tariffs, even if targeted, don’t operate in a vacuum—they ripple through production networks, hitting some sectors harder than others.

The bond market’s reaction reinforces this cautious optimism tinged with concern. US Treasuries fell on Monday, pushing yields up across the curve. The 2-year yield rose 8.6 basis points to 4.035 per cent, while the 10-year yield climbed 8.8 basis points to 4.335 per cent. This uptick reflects a dialling back of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, as investors digest the possibility that tariffs could keep inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s two per cent target.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments amplify this shift: he’s now projecting just one rate cut in 2025, down from two, and doesn’t see inflation hitting two per cent until early 2027. That’s a significant recalibration, signaling that the Fed might stay hawkish longer than hoped, especially if tariff-induced price pressures persist. The Fed’s reticence to push back on this market repricing suggests they’re in wait-and-see mode, letting the data—and Trump’s policy moves—dictate the pace.

The US Dollar Index, up 0.2 per cent to 104.30, its highest since early March, is another piece of the puzzle. A stronger dollar aligns with the narrative of a US economy holding its own amid global uncertainty, bolstered by higher yields and a perception of relative safety. But it’s a double-edged sword—while it boosts purchasing power for American consumers, it squeezes exporters and multinational corporations, potentially denting S&P 500 earnings down the line.

Commodities, meanwhile, tell a split story: gold dipped 0.4 per cent, perhaps as risk-on sentiment reduced its safe-haven appeal, while Brent crude rose 1.2 per cent to US$69.11 per barrel, buoyed by supply-side optimism or perhaps a flicker of demand recovery in Asia.

Speaking of Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index snapping a three-day losing streak with a 0.46 per cent gain is a subtle but telling sign. India’s SENSEX 30, up 1.40 per cent, has clawed back nearly all its year-to-date losses, showcasing the resilience of an economy less exposed to US trade whims.

Chinese stocks, too, caught a bid—Hang Seng up 0.91 per cent, CSI 300 up 0.51 per cent — possibly reflecting hopes that targeted tariffs might spare Beijing the worst. Yet early trading today showed mixed results across Asian indices, hinting that the relief rally might be fragile, contingent on further clarity from Washington.

Now, let’s pivot to crypto, where Trump’s influence is weaving an unexpected thread. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of US$84.17 million yesterday, marking seven straight days of gains. Fidelity’s FBTC led the pack with US$82.85 million, pushing its historical total to US$11.47 billion, while Bitwise’s BITB added US$19.23 million. Even with Ark Invest’s ARKB shedding $40.97 million, the broader trend is clear: institutional appetite for Bitcoin remains robust.

This resilience stands in contrast to Ethereum, which is grappling with its own challenges. ETH tested resistance at US$2,069 on Monday, buoyed by transaction fees hitting an all-time low—a double-edged sword. Lower fees might attract users, but they also signal waning network activity, a bearish undercurrent for a blockchain whose valuation hinges on usage. Grayscale’s research team nailed it: Ethereum’s price weakness—down 35 per cent in two months—ties directly to this fee slump and a broader crypto downturn sparked by Trump’s tariff threats.

The correlation between crypto and macroeconomics is tightening, and Trump’s policies are a big driver. US spot Ethereum ETFs have bled nearly US$390 million over 13 consecutive days of outflows, per Farside data, while on-chain metrics like transaction counts echo pre-election lows. Validators and token burners, who rely on fees, are feeling the pinch, undermining ETH’s value proposition.

Yet here’s where it gets fascinating: Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) is diving headfirst into this space, partnering with Crypto.com to launch “America-First Investment Funds” under the Truth.fi brand. These ETFs and SMAs, backed by a US$250 million TMTG investment and custodied by Charles Schwab, will span cryptocurrencies and “Made in America” securities—think energy and manufacturing. Trademarks like Truth.Fi Bitcoin Plus ETF and Truth.Fi US Energy Independence ETF scream Trump’s playbook: blending nationalism with financial innovation.

This move is a masterstroke of branding and ambition. By tying crypto to an America-First ethos, Trump’s team is betting on a narrative that could galvanise retail and institutional investors alike. It’s a counterpoint to Ethereum’s struggles—Bitcoin, with its ETF inflows, is riding a wave of momentum, while ETH languishes. The tariff flexibility hinted at over the weekend might bolster this venture further; if energy and manufacturing sectors get a pass, those “Made in America” funds could thrive, drawing capital away from more volatile altcoins like Ether.

Let me sum up. The US economy’s resilience, as seen in the Services PMI and equity gains, is real, but manufacturing’s woes and sticky inflation (thanks, tariffs) temper my optimism. The Fed’s hawkish tilt and a stronger dollar could cap upside, especially if global growth falters. In Asia, selective strength—India and China holding firm—suggests diversification might shield some markets, but the jury’s out on sustainability.

Crypto’s split fate—Bitcoin soaring, Ethereum stumbling—mirrors this dichotomy, with Trump’s Truth.fi gambit potentially reshaping the landscape. I’m cautiously bullish on equities and Bitcoin, skeptical of ETH’s near-term prospects, and watchful of how Trump’s tariff chess game unfolds. It’s a high-stakes story, and we’re only in the opening chapter.

 

Source: https://e27.co/treasury-yields-up-ethereum-down-tariffs-hit-traditional-and-crypto-20250325/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j