Tag Archives: tech

Crypto plunges, big tech earnings are strong. So why are markets nervous?

Crypto plunges, big tech earnings are strong. So why are markets nervous?

US equity futures advanced in early trading, with Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.9 per cent and S&P 500 futures up 0.4 per cent in Asian sessions, supported by strong after-hours results from Alphabet and Amazon.

This optimism meets a sobering reality as Brent crude surged 1.9 per cent to US$120.30 a barrel, a level not seen since mid-2022, driven by uncertainty over a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.50 per cent to 3.75 per cent on Wednesday, with Chair Powell explicitly citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, sets a cautious tone that permeates every asset class.

Corporate earnings provide both relief and concern. Alphabet and Amazon shares climbed in late-session trading, reinforcing the ongoing AI-investment boom that continues to drive capital allocation across technology. Meta Platforms told a different story, slumping in after-hours trading as investors questioned the sustainability of its high capital expenditure levels.

Qualcomm’s 13 per cent rally on significant progress in the data-centre market signals that semiconductor demand remains robust beyond traditional end markets. All eyes now turn to Apple, set to report earnings today, which will serve as the final major test for the Magnificent Seven this season. The divergence among these names reflects a market that is increasingly selective about which growth narratives merit premium valuations in a higher-rate environment.

Geopolitical tensions dominate the macro backdrop. Reports of a US naval blockade and an escalating conflict in Iran have injected volatility into energy markets, while the UAE’s reported exit from OPEC adds another layer of supply-side uncertainty. Asian shares fell at the open on Thursday, with the ASX 200 also opening lower as investors reacted to the oil shock.

The Core PCE Price Index data for March, expected during this session, will serve as a critical input for the Fed’s next policy assessment. This confluence of factors creates a market environment in which traditional correlations break down, and risk assets face heightened scrutiny.

Within this complex backdrop, crypto-focused equities tell a particularly revealing story. Listed crypto plays experienced a broad sell-off, with Robinhood dropping about 14 per cent after reporting a 47 per cent year-over-year collapse in crypto transaction revenue. Coinbase, Bullish, Gemini, Riot, and Marathon all declined roughly six to eight per cent on the day, while MicroStrategy fell about four per cent.

Across the same window, Bitcoin traded just below US$76,000, down only 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent. This divergence underscores a critical distinction that many investors overlook: crypto-linked equities behave more like leveraged technology and fintech exposures than like Bitcoin itself.

From my perspective, this dynamic reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how macro forces transmit through different layers of the digital asset ecosystem. When oil prices surge toward US$120 a barrel, headline inflation expectations rise, pushing Treasury yields higher and compressing multiples for long-duration, speculative equities.

Crypto exchanges depend on trading volumes that have already weakened, while miners operate capital-intensive businesses perceived as highly cyclical. These characteristics make their stocks particularly sensitive to shifts in macro risk appetite, even when the underlying cryptocurrency demonstrates relative resilience.

The market’s reaction reveals that investors still price crypto equities through a traditional growth-stock lens rather than appreciating the unique value accrual mechanisms of decentralised protocols.

Three variables warrant close attention moving forward.

  • First, oil prices and war headlines: sustained crude above US$100 per barrel keeps inflation pressure elevated and delays the timeline for rate cuts, creating a persistent headwind for high-beta crypto equities.
  • Second, central bank signals: if the Fed or other major central banks adopt a more hawkish stance in response to energy-driven inflation, equity multiples for speculative sectors face further compression.
  • Third, sector fundamentals: upcoming earnings from listed exchanges and miners will reveal whether the current selloff reflects pure macro beta or signals weakening business models. Crypto volumes, fee trends, power costs, and pivots toward AI and high-performance computing will all factor into this assessment.

The latest slide in crypto-related stocks reflects a macro shock rather than a crypto-specific failure. Surging oil prices feed inflation worries, pin interest rates higher, and punish high-beta, speculative equities across the board.

For investors navigating this landscape, the key distinction is recognising that listed brokers and miners have dual exposure: they participate in Bitcoin cycles while remaining vulnerable to energy-driven macro cycles. Monitoring oil trajectories, Fed expectations, and sector-specific earnings becomes essential when assessing risk in these vehicles versus holding the underlying digital assets.

Mainstream narratives often conflate spot crypto performance with equity proxies, but the transmission mechanisms differ substantially. In a world where geopolitical risk and monetary policy intersect with technological innovation, clarity about these distinctions separates informed positioning from reactive trading.

The path forward demands attention to both the macro forces shaping all risk assets and the unique fundamentals driving decentralised networks. Only by holding both lenses can investors navigate the volatility ahead with conviction rather than confusion.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-plunges-big-tech-earnings-are-strong-so-why-are-markets-nervous-20260430/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Risk assets retreat under macro pressure: Gold, crypto, and tech lead the decline

Risk assets retreat under macro pressure: Gold, crypto, and tech lead the decline

The global markets entered a state of cautious recalibration as risk sentiment softened amid a confluence of political, monetary, and liquidity-driven pressures. The catalyst for the shift was President Donald Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee.

While the announcement aimed to reassure markets about the Fed’s institutional independence, it simultaneously stoked fears of a more hawkish policy trajectory than previously anticipated. This development coincided with a brief partial government shutdown over the weekend, though lawmakers are expected to swiftly pass a funding agreement once the House reconvenes. Against this backdrop, investors turned their attention toward Friday’s January employment report, which may offer critical clues about labour market fragility and, by extension, the timing of future rate cuts.

Equity markets reflected this growing unease. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37 per cent, the S&P 500 dropped 0.43 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.94 per cent, weighed down by profit-taking in leading technology names. The VIX index, a barometer of market volatility, climbed to 17.44, signalling rising investor anxiety.

With major tech earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, and Palantir on deck, the sector faces renewed scrutiny not just on fundamentals but on its sensitivity to macro conditions. The prevailing view remains that the US economic recovery is uneven, warranting a strategic pivot toward broader diversification through vehicles like the S&P Equal Weighted or Low Volatility Index, rather than continued concentration in mega-cap tech. Beyond artificial intelligence narratives, select cyclicals such as financials and industrials, along with defensive healthcare segments, appear increasingly attractive.

Fixed income markets reacted with nuance to the Warsh nomination. The two-year Treasury yield declined by 3.7 basis points to 3.522 per cent, while the ten-year yield edged up slightly by 0.4 basis points to 4.235 per cent. This flattening at the short end suggests markets priced in a potential delay in near-term rate cuts, given Warsh’s reputation for monetary conservatism.

Nevertheless, the baseline expectation holds for two rate reductions in the second and third quarters of 2026, contingent on labor market deterioration. In this environment, extending bond duration to the five-to-seven-year range and accumulating high-quality fixed income, particularly in developed and emerging market investment grade, offers a prudent hedge against both volatility and eventual easing.

Currency markets mirrored the dollar’s resilience. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.74 per cent to 96.991, with the euro falling to 1.1851 and the yen weakening to 154.78 against the greenback. Notably, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi briefly fueled yen weakness by calling a softer currency a huge opportunity for exporters, a remark she later walked back. Despite the dollar’s short-term strength, the longer-term outlook anticipates depreciation, driven by expected Fed easing. Consequently, EUR/USD is positioned for gains, while USD/JPY should trend lower as broad-based dollar weakness takes hold.

Commodities experienced a historic collapse in precious metals. Gold plunged 8.9 per cent to US$4,894 per ounce, and silver cratered 26.4 per cent to US$85, an unprecedented single-day decline for both. The selloff stemmed not from fundamental supply-demand shifts but from a systemic liquidity crunch that forced leveraged positions across asset classes to unwind.

Meanwhile, Brent crude dipped 0.4 per cent to US$69 per barrel as President Trump signalled openness to negotiations with Iran, reducing immediate geopolitical risk premiums. The outlook for oil remains cautiously negative, while gold’s role as a defensive hedge endures despite its recent volatility.

In Asia, regional equities followed global trends lower, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbling 2.1 per cent and Taiwan’s TWSE retreating 1.5 per cent. Profit-taking dominated amid elevated volatility in both crypto and precious metals markets. The strategic stance remains overweight on emerging market Asia, with particular emphasis on China’s tech and dividend-paying stocks, Korea and Taiwan’s semiconductor leaders, and Singapore within ASEAN.

The crypto market, now valued at US$2.53 trillion, declined 5.04 per cent over 24 hours, closely tracking the S&P 500 with a 67 per cent correlation. This underscores crypto’s current identity as a macro-sensitive risk asset rather than a standalone store of value. The primary driver was a severe US dollar liquidity shortage, as highlighted by macro investor Raoul Pal, who attributed the US$250 billion crypto drawdown to capital flight from long-duration assets like Bitcoin and tech equities. Compounding this, the Warsh nomination dimmed hopes for imminent rate cuts, tightening financial conditions further.

Secondary factors amplified the decline. The Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 15, its lowest since November 2025, while US$110 million in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated, triggering a cascade of forced selling. In a market with thin liquidity and high leverage, such dynamics can rapidly spiral into self-fulfilling panic.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the US$75,000 to US$78,000 support zone will dictate near-term direction. A daily close below US$75,000 could open the door to a test of the yearly low near US$2.42 trillion. Conversely, stability above this band and ideally a reclaim of the US$2.6 trillion level could signal a technical rebound. However, until macro liquidity conditions improve or institutional ETF flows turn decisively positive, the path of least resistance remains downward. The week ahead will test whether markets can find a floor or if deeper deleveraging lies ahead.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/risk-assets-retreat-under-macro-pressure-gold-crypto-and-tech-lead-the-decline-20260202/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Tech earnings fail AI test and crypto pays the price

Tech earnings fail AI test and crypto pays the price

Asian equity markets began the session on a sombre note, weighed down by a broad-based retreat in technology stocks, a sector that has powered regional gains throughout much of the year. The sell-off reflects growing investor unease over the sustainability of artificial intelligence-driven valuations, especially as major US tech firms like Oracle and Broadcom delivered earnings outlooks that failed to meet elevated expectations.

The ripple effects from Wall Street’s Nasdaq, which dropped 1.81 per cent, have now reached Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Seoul, reinforcing the increasingly tight correlation between global tech sentiment and risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened at 49,004.9 points, marking a decline of over one per cent from its prior close of 49,512.28. The losses were led by heavyweight tech and semiconductor-related names, with SoftBank Group plunging 7.25 per cent on concerns that its aggressive AI and venture bets may not deliver near-term returns.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index hovered around 25,405.63 points, slightly lower for the day, but the real pain came from its technology sub-index, which slid sharply as mainland and overseas investors rotated out of growth-oriented equities. Meanwhile, mainland China’s Shanghai Composite bucked the trend slightly, trading at 3,874.3586 points with a modest gain, though it too experienced earlier-week volatility as Beijing’s mixed signals on fiscal stimulus and tech regulation created uncertainty.

At the heart of this market-wide caution lies a fundamental reassessment of AI-driven capital allocation. For over two years, tech companies across Asia, from South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix to Taiwan’s TSMC, have poured billions into AI infrastructure, data centres, and next-generation chip development. These investments lifted stock prices to record highs, supported by narratives of an AI revolution that would reshape global productivity.

Today’s market action suggests investors are demanding more than vision; they want measurable returns. With forward earnings revisions turning negative for several key players, the market is pricing in a potential gap between ambition and profitability.

This shift in sentiment has spilled directly into the cryptocurrency market, which fell 1.64 per cent in the last 24 hours, extending a 7.17 per cent weekly decline. The linkage is no longer coincidental; it is structural. Over the past 18 months, institutional capital has increasingly treated large-cap crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, as a satellite to the Nasdaq, especially during macro regimes dominated by liquidity expectations and risk appetite.

The 24-hour correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 now stands at plus 0.89, meaning the two move in near lockstep. When US tech falters, crypto follows, and today’s Nasdaq weakness is fuelled by AI scepticism, which is transmitted directly into digital asset markets.

Compounding the pressure was a significant liquidation cascade in crypto derivatives markets. In just 24 hours, Bitcoin saw US$153 million in liquidations, a 148 per cent increase from the prior day, with short positions accounting for US$79.5 million of that total. Such aggressive unwinding of leveraged positions typically occurs when prices breach key technical levels, triggering stop-losses and margin calls in a self-reinforcing spiral.

With total open interest across crypto derivatives at US$776 billion, the ecosystem remains highly sensitive to volatility shocks. The 7-day Relative Strength Index for Bitcoin has plunged to 15.4, signalling extreme oversold conditions, a level that historically precedes short-term bounces. Without a catalyst, oversold does not automatically mean reversal.

Further undermining confidence is the curious paradox surrounding XRP. Despite the recent launch of an XRP exchange-traded fund that has drawn US$1 billion in inflows since November, the token itself trades 47 per cent below its all-time high. This disconnect between institutional adoption and price performance has sown doubt among retail traders and algorithmic strategies alike.

If a regulated ETF with billion-dollar backing cannot reignite momentum in a top-five asset, the broader altcoin market may lack the firepower for a meaningful recovery. As a result, Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 59.2 per cent, reflecting a flight to relative safety within an already volatile asset class.

Crypto’s traditional role as a hedge has also diminished. Its 24-hour correlation with gold has turned negative at minus 0.35, indicating that in the current environment, it behaves not as a store of value but as a high-beta tech proxy. This shift matters because it means that during macro stress, such as uncertainty around central bank policy, crypto no longer offers diversification benefits. Instead, it amplifies risk. Traders now view it through the same lens as semiconductor stocks or cloud software equities, a leveraged bet on future innovation with limited near-term cash flows.

Looking ahead, all eyes in Asia will turn to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision later today. While Japan has maintained ultra-loose monetary policy longer than any other major economy, recent inflation data and yen weakness have sparked speculation that a rate hike, however modest, could be on the table. Such a move would tighten financial conditions in the region, further pressuring high-duration assets like tech stocks and crypto. Even the mere acknowledgement of a policy shift could trigger another leg down in risk markets.

In this context, the path for Bitcoin and Asian tech hinges less on fundamentals and more on macro liquidity. The market is no longer rewarding vision alone. It requires evidence that AI investments will translate into earnings, that crypto ETFs will drive sustainable demand, and that central banks will not abruptly withdraw the punchbowl. Until those questions are answered, volatility will persist, and the correlation between the Nasdaq and crypto will remain a dominant force shaping price action.

The current oversold RSI reading may hint at a tactical bounce, but without a shift in narrative or policy, any relief rally could prove fleeting. The era of unquestioning faith in AI-driven growth appears to be giving way to a more discerning, earnings-focused regime, one that will separate speculative narratives from enduring value.

 

Source: https://e27.co/tech-earnings-fail-ai-test-and-crypto-pays-the-price-20251218/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j