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Crypto’s fragile comeback: Oversold RSI, Solana ETFs, and the US$86K Bitcoin test

Crypto’s fragile comeback: Oversold RSI, Solana ETFs, and the US$86K Bitcoin test

Digital assets climbed 1.93 per cent, recovering from a steep seven-day slide that saw the sector shed 8.53 per cent of its value. This bounceback came against a broader backdrop of risk aversion. The S&P 500 fell 0.83 per cent, the NASDAQ dropped 1.21 per cent amid AI valuation concerns, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.07 per cent. The caution permeating traditional markets has spilt over into crypto, yet structural developments within the digital asset space, particularly around Solana, Binance, and technical positioning, provided enough tailwind for a short-term recovery.

The most potent catalyst emerged from the institutional front: the launch of spot Solana exchange-traded funds. Fidelity and Canary Capital debuted their Solana ETFs, FSOL and SOLC, on the NYSE and Nasdaq, respectively, drawing over US$30 million in first-day inflows. Unlike earlier crypto ETF structures that offered pure price exposure, these funds incorporate staking mechanisms, allowing investors to earn yield while holding the asset.

This innovation speaks directly to institutional appetite for income-generating digital assets in an environment where risk-free rates remain elevated but volatile. The inclusion of staking functionality elevates Solana beyond mere speculative exposure. It positions SOL as a yield-bearing asset within a broader portfolio framework, blurring the line between traditional fixed income and decentralised finance.

Crucially, Solana’s price held firm near US$183 despite Bitcoin’s recent turbulence, suggesting that ETF approval has conferred a degree of regulatory legitimacy not previously enjoyed by most altcoins. While Ethereum still commands the lion’s share of institutional attention among non-Bitcoin assets, Solana’s ETF momentum may signal a widening of the institutional aperture, potentially heralding the early stages of a broader altcoin renaissance if sustained.

Parallel to this structural shift, Binance continued to assert its dominance as the central node of global crypto liquidity. In the third quarter of 2025, Binance recorded net inflows of US$14.8 billion, a staggering 158 times more than its closest competitors. This figure is not merely a testament to user trust but reflects a deliberate strategy. The exchange has secured 21 regulatory licenses worldwide and holds US$31 billion in proof-of-reserves, positioning itself as a compliant gateway for both retail and institutional capital.

Recent partnerships, such as the integration with PayPay Japan, have further cemented its role in bridging mainstream finance with digital asset markets. In an environment where many crypto-native platforms struggle with regulatory headwinds and capital flight, Binance’s ability to attract and retain capital underscores a market preference for scale, security, and regulatory clarity, even within the centralised exchange model. This liquidity concentration has a direct impact on market dynamics.

Binance now accounts for 41 per cent of global crypto trading volume, according to BTCC data for 2025. Such dominance means that price discovery, especially during volatile periods, increasingly hinges on activity within Binance’s order books. The exchange’s inflows have effectively offset bearish sentiment elsewhere, including outflows from other crypto ETFs and risk-off behaviour in equities, acting as a counterweight to broader market pessimism.

From a technical standpoint, the rebound also found fertile ground in oversold conditions. The 14-day Relative Strength Index for the overall crypto market cap dipped to 34, entering territory historically associated with short-term buying opportunities.

Concurrently, the MACD histogram showed a narrowing of bearish momentum, falling to negative US$20.58 billion, a signal that downward pressure was beginning to ease. Traders responded swiftly, pushing the market higher in a classic relief rally. This technical bounce carries caveats. Perpetual futures funding rates across major assets remain subdued at a positive 0.0056 per cent, indicating that leverage appetite has not returned in force.

In other words, while spot traders capitalised on the dip, derivatives markets remain cautious, wary of committing to directional bets ahead of key macro events, including Nvidia’s earnings, which loom large given the chipmaker’s role as a bellwether for AI-driven equity performance. The absence of aggressive long positioning suggests that this rally is more a function of short-covering and mean reversion than a conviction-driven shift in sentiment.

Beneath these immediate drivers lies a more fragile undercurrent. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 16 out of 100, deep in extreme fear territory. This level of pessimism has historically preceded both capitulation events and eventual recoveries, but context matters. Today’s fear coincides with weakening global risk sentiment, driven by multiple crosscurrents. Treasury yields have dipped slightly, with the 10-year at 4.11 per cent and the 2-year at 3.57 per cent, reflecting safe-haven demand, yet the dollar remains flat, and the yen has weakened past 155 against the greenback on expectations of further Japanese stimulus.

Geopolitical tensions between China and Japan continue to rattle Asian markets, as evidenced by the Nikkei’s 3.2 per cent drop just one day prior. Meanwhile, oil prices rose 1.1 per cent on renewed Russia sanctions risk, and gold gained as investors sought traditional hedges. In this environment, crypto’s 1.93 per cent gain appears resilient, but it remains tethered to the fate of broader risk assets, particularly tech stocks.

The critical question now is sustainability. Can altcoins, led by Solana, maintain upward momentum if Bitcoin retests its US$86,000 support level? The answer likely hinges on two variables: continued Solana ETF inflows and shifts in Bitcoin dominance. The ETH/BTC ratio, a traditional barometer of altcoin season potential, has yet to show convincing recovery, suggesting that capital rotation into alternatives remains tentative.

Moreover, while Solana’s ETF structure offers yield through staking, its long-term appeal will depend on consistent institutional adoption and regulatory stability, not just initial enthusiasm. Binance’s liquidity dominance provides a buffer, but it also concentrates systemic risk. Any regulatory misstep or loss of confidence in the exchange could trigger rapid outflows that overwhelm even robust technical setups.

In conclusion, the crypto market’s recent rebound is real but fragile. It draws strength from three distinct pillars: institutional validation via Solana ETFs, centralised liquidity via Binance’s inflows, and technical oversold conditions inviting short-term buyers. These bullish forces operate within a macro framework tilted toward caution, marked by AI valuation fatigue, geopolitical friction, and a risk-off posture in both equities and fixed income. The rally should not be mistaken for a trend reversal but rather a tactical pause in a broader correction.

For the rebound to evolve into a sustained recovery, it will need either a catalyst that reignites global risk appetite or evidence that crypto’s fundamentals, particularly around regulated yield and institutional adoption, are decoupling from traditional market sentiment. Until then, traders and investors alike must tread carefully, watching Solana ETF flows, BTC dominance, and the ever-sensitive US$86,000 Bitcoin support level as leading indicators of what comes next.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-fragile-comeback-oversold-rsi-solana-etfs-and-the-us86k-bitcoin-test-20251119/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Decentralized Transactions Challenge Howey Test’s Application to NFTs

Decentralized Transactions Challenge Howey Test’s Application to NFTs
  • The key question is whether NFTs meet the Howey test criteria for classification as securities under federal laws.
  • In the NFT industry, adopting best practices includes transparency, fraud prevention, respecting intellectual property, and ethical conduct.

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are unique digital assets that can represent anything from art and music to virtual land and gaming items. They have exploded in popularity and value in recent years, attracting the attention of celebrities, investors, and regulators alike. The legal status of NFTs remains unclear and controversial, especially in the United States, where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has the authority to regulate securities and protect investors from fraud and manipulation.

One of the key questions that arises is whether NFTs are securities under the federal securities laws, and specifically, whether they meet the criteria of the Howey test, the legal framework established by the Supreme Court in 1946 to determine whether an instrument is an investment contract and thus a security. Howey test has four elements, I will argue that NFTs are not securities. On top of that, I will also address some of the counterarguments and challenges that NFTs may face in the future, and suggest some possible solutions and recommendations for the industry and the regulators.

NFTs are not investments of money, but rather purchases of digital goods

The first element of the Howey test is whether there is an investment of money or something of value in exchange for the instrument. This element is usually easy to satisfy, as most financial transactions involve some form of payment. However, in the case of NFTs, the payment is not an investment, but rather a purchase of a digital good.

They are not shares, bonds, or derivatives that represent a claim or a right to a future cash flow or a share of profits. Rather, they are digital tokens that prove ownership and authenticity of a unique digital asset. In my point of view, they are similar to other digital goods, such as e-books or music downloads, that consumers buy for personal use and enjoyment, not for investment purposes.

NFTs are not common enterprises, but rather individualized and decentralized transactions

The second element of the Howey test assesses the presence of a common enterprise, where investors’ fortunes are tied to the success of an issuer or third party. However, in the case of NFTs, no such common enterprise exists. Transactions are decentralized and individualized, with various artists and creators minting NFTs across different blockchain networks like Ethereum or Solana. NFT buyers rely on blockchain‘s public ledger to verify authenticity, rather than trusting a specific issuer or promoter.

NFTs do not generate profits, but rather subjective value and utility

The third element of the Howey test concerns whether there’s a reasonable expectation of profits. Unlike traditional investments, NFTs don’t generate income or appreciate based on others’ efforts. Instead, their value comes from subjective qualities like rarity, originality, and cultural significance, rather than anticipated financial returns. NFT buyers don’t expect profits but rather value the assets for their intrinsic qualities and utility.

NFTs are not dependent on the efforts of others, but rather on the creativity and innovation of the creators and the community

The fourth element of the Howey test examines whether profits stem from the efforts of others. Unlike traditional securities, NFT profits aren’t reliant on issuer or third-party services. NFT value is driven by the creativity and innovation of artists and developers, not centralized platforms. Buyers assess and appreciate digital assets based on personal judgment, rather than external influences.

Counterarguments and challenges

Despite the arguments in favor of NFTs, potential challenges from regulators and courts may arise in the future. One such challenge is the classification of certain NFTs as securities under regulatory tests like the Howey or Reves tests. Depending on their characteristics, some NFTs could represent real-world assets or rights, potentially falling under the definition of securities, especially if they promise future cash flows or resemble investment instruments.

Moreover, even if NFTs don’t meet all elements of the Howey test, they might still be deemed securities through a flexible analysis. For instance, if they are marketed as investments or show characteristics of speculative opportunities, they could create expectations of profit, thus falling under securities regulations. Additionally, if buyers pool funds or share risks and rewards, or if the NFTs’ value depends on underlying asset performance, regulators might consider them securities.

Furthermore, beyond securities laws, NFTs could be subject to various other regulations based on their nature and function. Anti-money laundering and sanctions regulations might apply if NFTs facilitate illicit transactions. Tax regulations could come into play if NFT transactions generate taxable income or capital gains. Consumer protection laws might be relevant if NFTs involve deceptive practices or breach contracts. Intellectual property regulations could be triggered if NFTs infringe upon original creators’ rights.

My take: Possible solutions and recommendations

Given the uncertainty and complexity of the legal landscape surrounding NFTs, it is important for the industry and the regulators to work together to find possible solutions and recommendations that can balance the interests and needs of all the stakeholders. Here are some suggestions from me that may help to achieve this goal:

  • Industry stakeholders should adhere to best practices and standards to improve transparency, accountability, and compliance in the NFT market. This includes clear disclosure of terms and conditions for NFT transactions, implementing measures to prevent fraud and illegal activities, and respecting intellectual property rights. Additionally, they should engage in responsible and ethical behavior, avoiding harm to the environment, society, or public interest.
  • Regulators should adopt a flexible approach to regulate the diverse NFT market. Avoiding overly restrictive frameworks is crucial to foster innovation and growth. Recognizing nuances among NFT types and consulting with industry and community for feedback is essential. Continuous monitoring and evaluation of market evolution are necessary to update policies accordingly.

Conclusion

NFTs are a new and exciting phenomenon that has revolutionized the digital economy and culture. They offer unprecedented opportunities and challenges for the creators, consumers, and regulators of the digital assets.

The legal status and implications of NFTs are still unclear and uncertain, and may vary depending on the facts and circumstances of each case. Therefore, it is important to understand and address the potential legal issues and risks that may arise from the creation, distribution, and consumption of NFTs, and to seek appropriate solutions and recommendations that can foster a healthy and sustainable NFT market.

 

Source: https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/decentralized-transactions-challenge-howey-tests-application-to-nfts/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Put ChatGPT, Bing Chat, and Bard to the Test: A Comparative Analysis

Put ChatGPT, Bing Chat, and Bard to the Test: A Comparative Analysis

In today’s rapidly changing world of artificial intelligence, language models have become essential tools with a wide range of applications. They play pivotal roles in everything from virtual assistants and chatbots to content generation and translation services. As these models push the boundaries of what’s possible, it’s imperative that we scrutinize their capabilities, acknowledge their limitations, and evaluate their real-world performance. In this opinion piece, we’ll subject three prominent language models—ChatGPT, Bing Chat, and Bard—to a rigorous examination, delving into their strengths and weaknesses while pondering the profound impact they have on our digital interactions.

Understanding the Players

Before delving into the comparison, let’s briefly introduce the contenders:

ChatGPT: Developed by OpenAI, ChatGPT is a highly advanced language model known for its natural language understanding and generation capabilities. It has been used in various applications, from chatbots to content creation.

Bing Chat: Microsoft’s answer to conversational AI, Bing Chat is a product of continuous research and development. It’s designed to facilitate natural and context-aware conversations, making it an attractive choice for customer support and virtual assistance.

Bard: While perhaps less well-known than the other two, Bard is a language model developed by Google. It’s designed for a wide range of language tasks, including translation, summarization, and chatbot interactions.

Testing Criteria

To fairly evaluate these language models, we’ll assess them based on several key criteria:

Natural Language Understanding (NLU): How well do these models comprehend and respond to user inputs?

Conversation Flow and Context Management: Can these models maintain coherent and contextually relevant conversations, even with complex inputs?

Content Generation: How adept are these models at generating coherent and informative responses, especially in content creation scenarios?

Ethical Considerations: What steps have been taken to mitigate biases and ethical concerns in these models?

Accessibility and Integration: How easily can these models be integrated into various applications and platforms?

Natural Language Understanding (NLU)

ChatGPT, Bing Chat, and Bard have all made significant strides in natural language understanding. They can process a wide range of user inputs, from casual conversation to technical queries. OpenAI’s ChatGPT, for instance, has been fine-tuned to understand and respond to various languages, dialects, and domains.

Microsoft’s Bing Chat also excels in NLU, boasting an impressive ability to recognize user intent and context. It leverages Microsoft’s vast knowledge base to provide informative responses, making it a compelling choice for customer service applications.

Bard, though less known in this arena, still demonstrates a commendable understanding of natural language. It’s especially effective in multilingual settings, owing to Google’s extensive translation capabilities.

Conversation Flow and Context Management

A crucial aspect of conversational AI is the ability to maintain coherent and contextually relevant dialogues. ChatGPT, Bing Chat, and Bard approach this challenge differently.

ChatGPT often relies on generating context from the conversation history. While it generally performs well, it may occasionally produce responses that seem out of place or disconnected from previous messages, especially in longer conversations.

Bing Chat, with its focus on context-aware conversations, tends to excel in this area. It can seamlessly manage complex dialogues and provide informative responses even when users provide incomplete information.

Bard, too, handles context reasonably well. Google’s model can maintain coherence in multilingual conversations and adapt its responses to evolving user queries.

Content Generation

Content generation is a critical application for language models, especially for tasks like writing articles, product descriptions, or creative pieces. In this regard, ChatGPT stands out as a strong performer. It can generate coherent and contextually relevant text, making it a valuable tool for content creators.

Bing Chat, while primarily designed for conversations, can still generate informative responses for content-related queries. However, it may not be as proficient in long-form content generation as ChatGPT.

Bard, developed by Google, is also adept at content generation. Its strength lies in summarization and translation tasks, but it can produce well-structured paragraphs and essays with the right prompts.

Ethical Considerations

Ethical concerns surrounding AI models are paramount in today’s discussions. OpenAI has made efforts to address biases in ChatGPT, implementing guidelines to reduce harmful and biased outputs. While it’s not perfect, these measures demonstrate a commitment to responsible AI development.

Microsoft, too, emphasizes ethical considerations in the development of Bing Chat. The company actively seeks to avoid biased and inappropriate responses and provides tools for users to report any issues they encounter.

Google, with Bard, has also acknowledged the importance of ethical AI. Google’s AI Principles guide the development of all their AI systems, with a commitment to avoiding biases and promoting transparency and accountability.

However, it’s crucial to note that none of these models are entirely free from biases or ethical challenges, and continuous vigilance and improvement are necessary to address these concerns.

Accessibility and Integration

The ease of integrating these language models into various applications and platforms is another vital aspect of their usability. ChatGPT is available through APIs, making it accessible for developers to incorporate into their projects. OpenAI offers both free and paid tiers, allowing a range of users to benefit from its capabilities.

Microsoft offers Bing Chat through Azure, providing a scalable and robust solution for businesses. It integrates seamlessly with Microsoft’s other products, which can be a significant advantage for enterprises.

Google’s Bard is accessible through Google Cloud AI, making it a viable choice for businesses already using Google’s ecosystem. It offers flexibility in terms of deployment and integration.

Conclusion

In the dynamic world of conversational AI, let’s take a closer look at ChatGPT, Bing Chat, and Bard, each bringing its own set of strengths to the table. ChatGPT really shines with its exceptional grasp of natural language and its ability to generate content that’s second to none. It’s the top pick for content creators and developers who crave a versatile language model.

Now, Bing Chat steps up to the plate with its knack for managing context and reading user intentions like a pro. It’s the go-to choice for applications that require impeccable customer support and virtual assistance, and the fact that it seamlessly blends into Microsoft’s ecosystem is a huge plus for businesses.

And let’s not forget Bard. While it might not be as famous as the other two, it packs a punch with its multilingual skills and its knack for content creation. In scenarios where translation and summarization are vital, Bard could carve out its own special niche.

But here’s the scoop: deciding among these language models isn’t just about their features. It’s also about the specific needs of your project, ethical considerations, and how easily they fit into your existing setup. As AI charges forward, it’s our responsibility as developers, businesses, and users to keep up with these models’ capabilities and quirks. Armed with this knowledge, we can make smart choices and steer AI development in an ethical direction. With ongoing improvements and an eye on fairness, these models can continue to jazz up our digital interactions and make the online world more welcoming and accessible to all.

 

Source: https://wishu.io/put-chatgpt-bing-chat-and-bard-to-the-test-a-comparative-analysis/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j