January 12th, 2026

Crypto rebounds as gold hits all-time high and oil surges on Iran tensions

Markets opened the week on a note of cautious optimism, even as US exchanges remained shuttered for a holiday on January 12, 2026. The momentum carried over from the previous Friday, when the S&P 500 notched a record close at 6,966.28, buoyed by unexpectedly strong US jobs data that tempered fears of imminent and aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. That resilience in equities spilt into Asian trading hours, where regional benchmarks were poised to gain, reflecting renewed investor confidence in macroeconomic stability.

Geopolitical fault lines began to crack open beneath this surface calm. Escalating protests in Iran injected fresh volatility into commodity markets. Brent crude edged toward US$64 a barrel as supply disruption fears mounted, while gold, long the ultimate refuge in times of uncertainty, soared past US$4,563.61 per ounce, setting a new all-time high. The move underscored how even modest shifts in global risk perception can rapidly redirect capital flows toward safe-haven assets, especially when compounded by expectations of future monetary easing from the Fed.

Currency markets mirrored this tension. The US dollar softened notably after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disclosed that the central bank had received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department, a revelation that stirred unease about the Fed’s operational independence. Against this backdrop, the euro held steady near US$1.1635, while the Japanese yen slipped to its weakest level in a year, signalling divergent policy trajectories and shifting safe-haven dynamics.

Meanwhile, the crypto market staged a modest but meaningful rebound, climbing 1.16 per cent over the past 24 hours. This advance marked a reversal of a broader 30-day downtrend and aligned with a nascent 7-day uptick of 0.17 per cent. Three converging forces drove this recovery: institutional validation through real-world asset tokenisation, technical breakthroughs on leading Layer 1 blockchains, and speculative optimism about potential US tax reform.

Ethereum and Solana emerged as clear leaders in the Layer 1 resurgence. Ethereum’s price action placed short sellers at heightened risk, with over 11 per cent of positions vulnerable, while Solana exhibited healthy alignment across exponential moving averages, a classic signal of sustained momentum. Together, they lifted the entire Layer 1 sector by 1.22 per cent, generating US$44.75 billion in trading volume, a staggering 66.34 per cent above the broader market average. This rotation into established, high-conviction assets suggested that investors were not chasing speculative narratives but rather reallocating toward foundational protocols with proven network effects and liquidity depth. The critical levels to watch now are Ethereum’s US$3,200 support and Solana’s US$140 resistance. Both will serve as barometers of whether this rally has staying power.

Equally significant was the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s confirmation of progress in tokenising US Treasuries on the Canton Network. This development transcends mere technological experimentation. It represents a watershed moment in the integration of traditional finance with blockchain infrastructure. With US$300 billion in daily volume already flowing through Canton-based applications and the native token surging 13.27 per cent, the market interpreted this as a de-risking event. By anchoring sovereign-grade assets to a permissioned yet distributed ledger, institutions signal that blockchain is no longer a fringe experiment but a viable rails upgrade for core financial operations. Such validation compresses the perceived regulatory risk premium that has long shadowed crypto markets, potentially unlocking tranches of conservative capital that have been previously sidelined by compliance concerns.

Adding fuel to retail sentiment was unconfirmed but credible chatter from the White House about eliminating transaction-level taxes on cryptocurrency. Though legislative outcomes remain uncertain, the mere discussion shifted market psychology. The Fear & Greed Index climbed to 41, still in neutral territory but a marked improvement from last month’s reading of 29, which reflected deep-seated fear. If such reforms materialise, they could dramatically enhance crypto’s utility as a medium of exchange, moving it beyond speculation and into everyday economic activity.

Despite these tailwinds, participation remains restrained. Open interest across derivatives markets sits at US$600 billion, down 25 per cent from a month ago, indicating that traders are approaching this rally with discipline rather than exuberance. The absence of excessive leverage suggests that any pullback would likely be orderly rather than catastrophic.

In sum, the confluence of macro stability, geopolitical stress, institutional adoption, and regulatory hope has created a fragile but promising inflection point. The path forward hinges on two variables: whether Ethereum can defend its key support amid broader market volatility, and how quickly DTCC’s tokenisation initiative transitions from pilot to production. If both hold, this rebound may mark more than a technical bounce. It could signal the beginning of a new phase where crypto’s value proposition shifts from speculative yield to infrastructural utility.

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-rebounds-as-gold-hits-all-time-high-and-oil-surges-on-iran-tensions-20260112/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

January 8th, 2026

Crypto’s ticking time bomb: 5 events that will decide the 2026 bull run

Among the most consequential developments expected in the cryptocurrency landscape over the next two years, none carries more immediate weight than the January 15, 2026, decision by MSCI regarding the classification of Bitcoin treasury companies. This ruling sits at the intersection of traditional finance and digital asset adoption, and its repercussions could ripple through markets in ways that few other events can match.

The core issue hinges on whether firms like MicroStrategy, whose balance sheets now consist of more than 50 per cent Bitcoin, will be reclassified as investment funds rather than operating companies. If MSCI rules in the affirmative, index providers like the S&P 500 or MSCI World would be compelled to remove these firms from their benchmarks, triggering forced selling by passive investment vehicles that collectively manage trillions in assets.

The scale of potential outflows is staggering. Estimates suggest that MicroStrategy alone could face between US$2.8 billion and US$8.8 billion in passive fund redemptions, with the broader ecosystem of Bitcoin treasury firms facing total selling pressure of US$10 to US$15 billion over the following twelve months. This figure represents not just paper losses but real market impact, especially given that companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, Digital Asset Treasuries or DATs, already control approximately 6 per cent of Bitcoin’s finite supply.

A forced liquidation at this scale would not only depress Bitcoin’s price in the short term but could also interrupt what has become a self-reinforcing cycle of corporate accumulation. That cycle, which began in earnest with MicroStrategy’s 2020 pivot, has served as a powerful narrative driver for institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate reserve asset. If broken, it may take years to rebuild the same level of credibility.

Just two days before the MSCI ruling, on January 13, 2026, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index data. Though seemingly a routine macroeconomic release, the January CPI print arrives at a moment of heightened sensitivity. Markets currently assign a 24.4 per cent probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut in the same month, signalling deep uncertainty about the direction of monetary policy.

In a scenario where inflation comes in hotter than expected, the dollar would likely strengthen, risk assets would sell off, and crypto, still viewed by many portfolio managers as a speculative instrument, could face renewed pressure. However, something subtle but significant has shifted. Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with gold has recently turned negative, standing at minus 0.58. This decoupling suggests that traders no longer treat Bitcoin as a straightforward inflation hedge in the same mould as precious metals.

Instead, its price action may respond more acutely to liquidity conditions, risk sentiment, and structural adoption signals than to traditional macro indicators. That makes the CPI release a wildcard, potentially catalytic, but less deterministic than it might have been in prior cycles.

Looking further ahead, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on June 17, 2026, introduces another layer of complexity. This will be the first FOMC decision under the leadership of a new chair, widely expected to be Kevin Hassett if Donald Trump returns to the White House. Hassett, an economist with a history of advocating for pro-growth fiscal and monetary policies, would likely accelerate the pace of rate cuts in a bid to stimulate the economy. Market participants already anticipate 125 basis points of easing by the end of 2026. Such a dovish pivot would almost certainly weaken the US dollar and encourage capital flows into risk assets, including crypto.

But there is a caveat. If inflation remains stubbornly high even as rates fall, the bond market could enter a bear steepening regime, where long-term yields rise faster than short-term rates, creating a volatile macro environment that might undermine crypto’s appeal despite looser monetary conditions. In other words, the mere act of cutting rates does not guarantee a bullish outcome for digital assets. The context in which those cuts occur matters just as much.

Meanwhile, a quieter but potentially transformative development looms on March 16, 2026, the effective launch date of Bitwise’s suite of altcoin ETFs. These funds, covering tokens like AAVE and UNI, represent the largest expansion of crypto ETF access beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum since the approval of Solana and XRP funds in 2025. Critically, these ETFs are structured to hold up to 60 per cent of their assets directly in the underlying tokens, offering genuine exposure rather than synthetic derivatives.

Given that Bitcoin and Ethereum currently dominate 70.8 per cent of the total crypto market capitalisation, the introduction of liquid, regulated vehicles for mid-tier assets could catalyse a long-overdue diversification of institutional portfolios. This matters not just for price discovery but for ecosystem health. Altcoins like AAVE and UNI power real-world financial infrastructure, decentralised lending and governance protocols, respectively, and sustained institutional interest could accelerate their integration into mainstream finance. The success or failure of these ETFs may therefore serve as a litmus test for whether the crypto market can mature beyond a two-asset oligopoly.

Finally, while most of the events listed unfold within the next 18 months, one long-term threat casts a shadow over the entire industry: the quantum computing risk, projected to materialise by March 8, 2028. The concern is not hypothetical. Analysts warn that once quantum processors achieve 1,673 logical qubits, a milestone that IBM and Google are racing toward, Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography could become vulnerable, particularly for addresses that have previously transacted and thus exposed their public keys. The immediate risk is limited to reused addresses, but the psychological impact could be profound.

Even the mere perception of insecurity might trigger fear-driven sell-offs or regulatory crackdowns. Fortunately, the crypto community is not standing idle. Projects like xx network are already building quantum-resistant blockchains, and the Bitcoin core developers have long discussed soft-fork upgrades to migrate to post-quantum signature schemes. Still, the clock is ticking, and the industry’s ability to execute a seamless transition will determine whether this threat remains theoretical or becomes a crisis.

Taken together, these five events sketch a timeline of both opportunity and peril. The MSCI ruling on January 15, 2026, stands out as the most immediate and market-moving catalyst, not because it reflects a fundamental flaw in Bitcoin’s value proposition, but because it exposes the fragility of its integration into traditional finance.

A negative decision could temporarily erase roughly US$12,000 from Bitcoin’s price, according to current market models, while a favourable outcome might reinvigorate the corporate treasury narrative that has sustained much of the past bull run. Beyond that, the interplay of macro policy, ETF innovation, and technological risk will shape crypto’s trajectory for years to come.

What distinguishes this cycle from previous ones is not just the scale of institutional involvement, but the depth of structural interdependencies between digital assets and the legacy financial system. As such, the next 24 months will not merely test price resilience. They will determine whether crypto can evolve from a speculative frontier into a durable component of global capital markets.

Source:

https://e27.co/cryptos-ticking-time-bomb-5-events-that-will-decide-the-2026-bull-run-20260105/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 7th, 2024

Why is the Crypto Market Down Today? Time to Buy the Dip?

The first week of August 2024 got off to a miserable start for risk asset investors across the globe.

Major equity markets in the U.S., Europe, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India were battered on August 5, 2024.

Bitcoin (BTC) mirrored equity market losses to fall below the $50,000 mark for the first time in nearly five months.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) bore the brunt of the selloff as the premier altcoin fell as much as 21% on the day.

Why is crypto crashing today? As we try and answer that, we will also look forward and analyze whether Bitcoin crashing is an opportunity to buy the dip.

Why is the Crypto Market Down?

The recent crash in cryptocurrency prices can be mainly attributed to macroeconomic factors:

U.S. Fed’s Rate Hike Cycle

Let’s rewind to March 2022, when the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates for the first time in two years to quell inflation in the country. The March 2022 hike marked the start of a global monetary tightening cycle that saw central banks across the world raise borrowing rates to keep up with the Fed.

The Fed was very aggressive in its fight against inflation, raising interest rates from 0.25% in March 2022 to 5.5% by July 2023.

The last time the Fed undertook such a strong measure — raising rates from 1% in June 2004 to 5.25% in June 2006 — it was preceded by the Great Recession of 2007-2008.

Investors now fear that history could repeat itself, having seen unemployment rates in the U.S. rise consistently over the past year. A contraction of U.S. factory activity for four straight months between April 2024 to July 2024 has also reinforced recession fears.

“Historically, the likelihood of a recession in 2025 is high, and the stock market typically anticipates such downturns well in advance,” said Markus Theilen of 10x Research in a note.

The crypto crash today may also make sense when we understand that the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies has made the digital asset market more sensitive to macroeconomic forces than ever before.

Financial institutions, hedge funds and professional investors are selling Bitcoin and altcoins as they prepare for a potential recession.

Anndy Lian, intergovernmental blockchain expert and author of ‘Blockchain Revolution 2030’ told Techopedia:

“Global recession fears can significantly impact cryptocurrency prices, primarily due to investors’ heightened risk aversion. When economic indicators suggest a potential downturn, investors often shift their capital from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies to safer investments such as government bonds or gold.

“This flight to safety can lead to a sell-off in the crypto market, driving prices down.”

Unwinding of Japanese Yen Carry Trade

Many also attributed the fall in the risk asset market that occurred in early August 2024 to the unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade.

The Japanese central bank has historically maintained zero-to-negative interest rates in order to boost economic activity and counter deflation in the island nation.

However, in March 2024, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ended the era of negative interest rates for the first time in 17 years by increasing short-term interest rates to 0-0.1%.

On July 31, 2024, the BoJ raised rates further to 0.25%, making it more expensive to borrow the Japanese yen.

The Yen had been a favourite among investors as a carry trade option, where investors borrow money at a lower interest rate to invest the borrowed sum in assets that can provide higher returns.

“The BoJ’s rate hike last week (on July 31, 2024), which played a key role in the subsequent market meltdown, showed that you can’t unwind the biggest carry trade of the century without breaking a few heads,” said Presto Research in an email newsletter.

Should I Buy the Dip?

With BTC trading over 26% below its all-time high price ($73,750 in March 2024) and ETH trading at six-month lows, investors may be thinking of buying the crypto dip.

We asked Techopedia’s panel of crypto experts for their thoughts on the subject.

Shiven Moodley, chief operating officer and macro strategist at brokerage firm 80eight Group, said:

“As a trader, I am buying the dip. Support levels of around $42,000 and $38,000 (for BTC) support accumulation in my thesis that the price will move back above $75,000 towards the end of the year.

“There is positive long-term anticipation for price action ahead of the election in the U.S.”

Meanwhile, Sergei Chmel, managing partner of alternative investment firm SeQuant Capital quoted legendary investor Warren Buffet and said:

“Be brave when others are fearful, and be fearful while others are brave.

He added: “DCA [dollar cost averaging] is the best strategy for a long-term horizon. Trading is a path to poverty.”

Interestingly, Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway, seems to have followed his advice by selling 390 million Apple shares in the second quarter of 2024, just before Apple shares hit an all-time high in mid-July 2024. Berkshire Hathaway held a cash stake of over $276 billion as of June 30, 2024

Elsewhere, 10x Research warned that long-term investment strategies like HODLing and DCA in BTC and ETH have not been favorable since 2021.

“Bitcoin is primarily a momentum trading game where the trend is your friend—until it isn’t. While we can outline potential cycle developments, trading the peaks and troughs requires reacting to breakdown or breakout signals.

“This approach might result in losses when false buy signals occur during rallies, but effective risk management, such as using stop-loss orders, can protect most traders’ capital.”

BTC Hedge Criticism

Crypto’s crash alongside global equity markets in early August 2024 invited criticism from a section of the crowd who questioned the popular crypto narrative that Bitcoin is a hedge against global economies and a good asset for diversification.

Joe Weisenthal, editor at Bloomberg, said Bitcoin – often dubbed “digital gold” – was looking “a lot more like Nvidia than it does gold.”

Elsewhere, Beat Nussbaumer, founder of MacroBeat, wrote:

“BTC dropped some 10% to 52.3K….that much for a store of value…. at some point, people will finally see it for what it is… just another risky asset.”

Michael Nadeau of the DeFi Report newsletter explained crypto’s correlated crash with the global equity market, saying:

“While crypto is generally uncorrelated to traditional markets, correlations quickly move to 1 during macro/liquidity events. All assets are correlated during these times, with crypto being much more volatile (why you never play with leverage).”

Outlook for Crypto Market

Macroeconomics will continue to be a key driver of risk asset markets over the near term as the U.S. Fed prepares to embark on a rate cut cycle that is expected to start in September 2024.

While rate cuts are typically seen as bullish events for risk asset markets, the underlying conditions — slow hiring, rising unemployment, and contracting manufacturing activity — have compelled investors to take a cautious stance.

“As noted earlier this week, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates after a prolonged hiking cycle solely due to weaker inflation, stocks (and Bitcoin) should interpret the first cut as bullish.

“However, if a weak economy drives the cut — as was the case in 2001 and 2007 — stocks (and Bitcoin) are likely to decline,” said 10x Research.

Looking forward, we asked Techopedia’s expert panels for their outlook on the crypto market.

Moodley said:

“BTC has some consolidation support levels of around $42k and $ 38k, which would interest many whales. While ETH has breached a two-standard deviation move, any more volatility could see us break the $2000 key support level toward $1800”

Sergei said:

“Regarding Bitcoin and its role as a hedge, one thing every investor should understand and remember about Bitcoin is that it is a perfect hedge in a medium-and-long term time horizon, but because it’s one of the most liquid assets in the world, in moments of panic investors rush to sell what they can.”

The Bottom Line

As this article goes to press, the crypto market has bounced back from the Monday market crash. Investors are buying the dip as we speak with BTC rising over 10% and ETH jumping over 14% on August 6, 2024 in early Asia trade.

If you are thinking of investing in risk asset markets, remember to always do your own due diligence before investing. Market analysts and experts can be wrong, and the future cannot be predicted. This article should not be taken as financial advice and is for informational purposes only.

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/news/why-is-crypto-market-down-today-time-to-buy-the-dip