Tag Archives: trade

Shifting sands: How trade fears and crypto hopes are redefining markets

Shifting sands: How trade fears and crypto hopes are redefining markets

As I sit down to unpack the whirlwind of events shaping global markets on March 5, 2025, it’s hard not to feel the weight of uncertainty pressing down on us all. The headlines are buzzing with escalating trade tensions, bold economic proposals, and a crypto landscape that’s both thrilling and divisive. Let’s dive into this market wrap and explore what’s driving these shifts, what the data tells us, and where I think this rollercoaster might take us next.

The big story dominating the financial world right now is the trade standoff sparked by US President Trump’s decision to slap 25 per cent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, alongside an additional 10 per cent on China. True to his campaign rhetoric, Trump has followed through, and the fallout has been swift.

Canada and China didn’t waste a moment, hitting back with their own retaliatory tariffs, while Mexico’s president has promised to join the fray by Sunday. The result? Global equities took a beating, with the MSCI US index dropping 1.2 per cent, dragged down by a bruising 3.5 per cent plunge in financials. It’s a grim picture, and you can almost feel the collective sigh from Wall Street as fears of a full-blown trade war loom large.

But here’s where it gets interesting. After the US markets closed, Commerce Secretary Lutnick dropped a hint that talks with Canada and Mexico might yield a compromise. That’s a lifeline for markets desperate for some stability, though I’m skeptical about how quickly this can be resolved.

Tariffs aren’t just numbers—they’re bargaining chips in a high-stakes game, and unwinding them could take time. Still, the mere suggestion of a deal nudged US equity futures upward, hinting at a brighter open today. My take? This feels like a temporary breather rather than a resolution. Trade wars don’t end with a single press conference—they fester, and I’d wager we’re in for more volatility before clarity emerges.

Over in the bond market, the reaction was equally telling. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed over 3 basis points to 4.21 per cent, reversing an earlier dip, while the 2-year yield slipped 3 basis points to 3.94 per cent. This widening gap—known as a steepening yield curve—screams uncertainty to me.

Investors seem to be betting on inflation from tariffs pushing up long-term yields, while the drop in short-term yields suggests some are seeking safety or anticipating a slowdown. It’s a classic push-and-pull, and I can’t help but think it reflects a market grappling with mixed signals.

Shifting gears to Europe, Germany’s conservatives and Social Democrats have unveiled a jaw-dropping plan: a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure and a rewrite of borrowing rules to ramp up defense spending. It’s a bold move, and the markets loved it—the EUR/USD shot up to 1.0627 overnight. Other European currencies like the Swiss franc, British pound, Norwegian krone, and Swedish krona followed suit, flexing their muscles as the US Dollar Index stumbled 0.9 per cent to 105.49.

This feels like Europe seizing a moment to assert itself amid global chaos, and I’m impressed by the ambition. If Germany pulls this off, it could spark a ripple effect, boosting infrastructure and jobs while shoring up defenses—a win-win that might just give the eurozone an edge.

Meanwhile, commodities are painting a different picture. Brent crude slipped 0.8 per cent to below US$70 a barrel, the lowest since last October, thanks to OPEC+ signalling output hikes in April. That’s a supply glut waiting to happen, and with trade tensions clouding demand, I’m not surprised oil’s taking a hit.

Gold, on the other hand, rose 0.7 per cent, buoyed by a weaker dollar and its timeless appeal as a safe haven. It’s a tale of two commodities—one sinking under practical pressures, the other shining as a hedge against the unknown. I’d argue gold’s climb is a sign that, despite some optimism, fear still lingers in the market’s underbelly.

Across the Pacific, China’s National People’s Congress kicked off with a gutsy 5 per cent growth target for 2025, tariffs be damned. Investors are laser-focused on spending plans, especially around AI, which could be a game-changer for China’s tech sector.

Asian equity indices mostly rose in early trading, and with Trump set to address Congress today, all eyes are on what he’ll say about trade and beyond. My gut tells me China’s playing a long game here—pushing growth while quietly adapting to external pressures. That 5 per cent target might be ambitious, but if they lean into AI and innovation, it’s not out of reach.

Now, let’s talk crypto, because this is where things get wild. Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has ordered a legal framework for digital assets, with a draft due this month. It’s a big deal—right now, cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum exist in a legal no-man’s-land there, forcing businesses to register in places like Singapore or the US.

A clear rulebook could unleash a wave of activity, and I’m excited to see Vietnam stepping up. Indonesia’s crypto scene is already on fire, with transactions soaring to 44.07 trillion rupiah (US$2.68 billion) in January 2025—a 104.31 per cent jump from last year. With 1,396 assets tradable as of February, it’s clear Southeast Asia is becoming a crypto hotspot.

Hong Kong’s not sitting idle either. On February 19, its Securities and Future Commission rolled out the ASPIRe Framework—five pillars and 12 initiatives to grow and secure its virtual asset industry. It’s a smart play to cement Hong Kong’s status as a financial innovation hub, and I’d bet it’ll draw in more players. But the real crypto drama is brewing in Washington.

Trump’s pushing for a strategic cryptocurrency reserve, originally pitched as a way to use seized assets like the US’s US$16.4 billion in Bitcoin and US$400 million in other tokens. The twist? He now wants XRP, SOL, and ADA included—tokens the US doesn’t even hold yet.

That’s sparked a firestorm, with critics crying foul over government meddling in markets and supporters cheering a bold embrace of crypto. Personally, I’m torn. It’s a visionary idea, but buying those tokens could spike prices and invite accusations of favoritism. The logistics alone are a nightmare—how do you stockpile volatile assets without distorting the market?

Stepping back, what strikes me most is the sheer breadth of these developments. Trade tensions are shaking equities and bonds, Europe’s flexing fiscal muscle, and Asia’s charging ahead with crypto and growth targets. The data backs this up: the MSCI US down 1.2 per cent, EUR/USD at 1.0627, Indonesia’s crypto boom, Brent at US$70—all pieces of a puzzle showing a world in transition.

My view? We’re at a tipping point. Trade wars could drag us down, but compromises and innovation—like Germany’s fund or Asia’s crypto push—offer hope. The US crypto reserve is a wild card; if executed poorly, it could backfire, but done right, it might signal a new era for digital assets.

I think markets will stay jittery until trade talks clarify—watch Canada and Mexico closely. Europe’s plans could stabilise things if they deliver, and Asia’s crypto momentum might just steal the spotlight. Trump’s speech today could set the tone, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for miracles. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and as a journalist digging into the facts, I’d say buckle up—we’re in for a ride that’s as unpredictable as it is fascinating.

 

Source: https://e27.co/shifting-sands-how-trade-fears-and-crypto-hopes-are-redefining-markets-20250305/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Market recap: Europe gains, crypto falls, and trade fears grow

Market recap: Europe gains, crypto falls, and trade fears grow

The market wrap for February 27, 2025, paints a vivid picture of a world grappling with choppy risk sentiment, spurred by US President Donald Trump’s latest pronouncements on trade policy. His remarks during Wednesday’s cabinet meeting—laden with ambiguity about tariffs on Canada and Mexico, hints of a delay from March to April, and a firm declaration of 25 per cent reciprocal tariffs on European autos—have sent ripples of unease across global markets.

Add to that a slew of economic data points, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments, and you’ve got a recipe for volatility that’s keeping investors on their toes. Here’s my take on what’s unfolding, grounded in facts and a healthy dose of skepticism about where this all might lead.

Let’s start with Trump’s trade rhetoric, which has once again thrust uncertainty into the spotlight. His contradictory signals about tariffs on Canada and Mexico—major US trading partners—suggest a strategy that’s either deliberately fluid or frustratingly inconsistent.

On one hand, he’s floated a potential delay, pushing the timeline from March to April, which could buy time for negotiations or simply prolong the suspense. On the other, he’s doubled down with a pledge for 25 per cent tariffs on European autos and other goods, a move that’s less about surprise (given his long-standing “tariff man” persona) and more about escalation.

The markets despise ambiguity, and Trump’s words have delivered it in spades. Investors are left parsing his intentions: Is this a negotiating tactic to extract concessions, or a genuine prelude to a broader trade war? The historical precedent from his first term—where tariffs on steel and aluminum roiled markets but often softened in practice—offers little comfort when the stakes now seem higher and the global economy more fragile.

The economic data isn’t helping soothe nerves either. US new home sales took a nosedive in January, dropping 10.5 per cent to 657,000 units. That’s a stark signal of cooling demand in a housing market already battered by high interest rates and affordability woes. For context, this figure undershoots even the most pessimistic forecasts, hinting at deeper structural issues—perhaps a pullback in consumer confidence or a ripple effect from trade-related uncertainty.

Housing is a bellwether for broader economic health, and this bearish turn could amplify growth concerns, especially as Trump’s policies threaten to layer on inflationary pressures via tariffs. It’s no wonder equity markets have been volatile, with traders caught between macroeconomic red flags and the micro-level drama of corporate earnings.

Speaking of earnings, Nvidia’s latest report was the week’s marquee event, and it didn’t disappoint—or rather, it didn’t fully satisfy. The chip giant, a darling of the tech rally, posted results that beat analyst expectations, yet the stock wobbled in after-hours trading. Why? After two years of blowout performances that fuelled AI-driven euphoria, this “modest beat” felt like a letdown.

Investors have grown accustomed to Nvidia shattering ceilings, and anything less sparks doubts about whether the growth story has peaked. The broader MSCI US index eked out a negligible 0.03 per cent gain, buoyed by a 0.8 per cent rise in the Info Tech sector, but the lack of decisive momentum reflects a market wrestling with bigger questions. Are we seeing the limits of tech-led optimism in an environment where tariffs and inflation could crimp corporate margins?

Meanwhile, fixed-income markets offered their own commentary. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slipped 4 basis points to 4.25 per cent, a subtle nod to growth fears trumping inflation worries—for now. Lower yields signal a flight to safety, as investors bet on a slowing economy potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to rethink its rate-cut trajectory.

The US Dollar Index, up 0.1 per cent to 106.49, suggests some resilience, likely propped up by Trump’s tariff threats enhancing the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. Gold, too, ticked up 0.1 per cent to US$2,915.92 an ounce, hovering near record territory as a hedge against uncertainty. These moves aren’t dramatic, but they underscore a cautious repositioning amid the noise.

Across the Atlantic, MSCI Europe climbed a solid 1.0 per cent, lifted by a new minerals deal between the US and Ukraine. It’s a rare bright spot, hinting at strategic shifts in resource alliances that could cushion Europe against trade disruptions. But let’s not kid ourselves—European autos, now squarely in Trump’s tariff crosshairs, could drag sentiment down fast. Companies like Volkswagen and Stellantis, with heavy exposure to North American supply chains, face a reckoning if those 25 per cent duties stick. The sector’s already nursing wounds from a post-pandemic slump, and this could be salt in the wound.

Asia, meanwhile, tells a tale of resilience and divergence. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rebounded 1.5 per cent, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng stealing the show at a 3.3 per cent surge. The catalyst? News that China plans to recapitalise its biggest banks, a move that could stabilise a financial system creaking under bad debt and sluggish growth.

It’s a bold step, and the market’s enthusiastic response suggests hope that Beijing’s got more tricks up its sleeve. Yet, early trading today showed Asian indices mixed, and US equity futures point to a softer open stateside. The global mood remains jittery, and China’s bank rescue might be a temporary salve rather than a cure.

Then there’s the cryptocurrency saga, a wild subplot in this market drama. Over US$800 billion has evaporated from global crypto markets in recent weeks, a brutal reversal from the post-election euphoria tied to Trump’s perceived pro-crypto stance. Bitcoin shed 3.6 per cent on Wednesday, hitting US$85,600, while Ethereum took a 4 per cent dive to US$2,275—its lowest since September.

The culprits are manifold: inflation fears, tariff anxieties, a cooling meme coin craze, and a US$1.4 billion hack at the Bybit exchange, linked to the notorious Lazarus group. The forensic fallout confirms it was a targeted attack, not a flaw in Safe Wallet’s smart contracts, but the damage to confidence is real. Crypto’s 4 per cent daily drop mirrors the broader sell-off in risk assets, and Ethereum’s 53 per cent lag from its 2021 peak is a stark reminder of how far the mighty can fall when sentiment sours.

Oil, too, is feeling the heat. Brent crude slipped 0.7 per cent to US$72.71 a barrel, pressured by an unexpected buildup in US fuel inventories and whispers of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. The latter could ease supply concerns, but the former points to weakening demand—a troubling sign when paired with the housing data. Energy markets are a microcosm of the push-pull between geopolitical hope and economic reality, and right now, reality’s winning.

So, what’s my point of view on all this? I have mentioned this many times in the past few days. I see a world at a crossroads, where Trump’s trade gambit could either spark a manageable reshuffling of global commerce or tip us into a deeper slowdown. The data—housing’s slump, oil’s slide, crypto’s crash—screams caution, yet pockets of strength in Europe and Asia hint at adaptability.

Nvidia’s underwhelming “win” feels symbolic: growth is still possible, but the easy gains are gone. Investors are right to be skittish; tariffs could stoke inflation just as growth falters, a stagflationary nightmare the Fed’s ill-equipped to handle if yields keep dropping. I’m skeptical of Trump’s ability to thread this needle—his track record leans more toward disruption than finesse. But markets are nothing if not resilient, and the next few weeks, with Fed testimony and more tariff clarity looming, will test that resilience to the hilt. For now, I’d say buckle up: this ride’s only getting bumpier.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-recap-europe-gains-crypto-falls-and-trade-fears-grow-20250227/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Global markets on edge: Trade wars, tariffs, and crypto chaos in focus

Global markets on edge: Trade wars, tariffs, and crypto chaos in focus

It is clear that the world is navigating a complex and uneasy landscape. I will be sharing my observations for 25 February 2025. Monday’s choppy trading session on Wall Street painted a vivid picture of the uncertainty gripping investors, with major US equity indices finishing the day as a mixed bag.

The MSCI US index slipped 0.6 per cent, dragged lower by a 1.5 per cent drop in the information technology sector, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq took an even sharper hit, tumbling 1.2 per cent. What’s driving this jittery sentiment?

Trade war fears are casting a long shadow, fuelled by President Donald Trump’s latest comments on sweeping tariffs targeting imports from Canada and Mexico, set to kick in next week after a month-long delay expires. Add to that his memorandum aimed at curbing Chinese investment in key American sectors like tech and energy, and you’ve got a recipe for heightened global risk aversion.

Let’s start with the trade war angle, because it’s the elephant in the room. Trump’s insistence that tariffs on Canada and Mexico “will go forward” has sent ripples through markets already on edge. These aren’t small players—Canada supplies roughly 60 per cent of US crude oil imports, while Mexico is a critical cog in the North American supply chain, particularly for auto parts and manufacturing.

A 25 per cent tariff on these imports, as Trump has hinted, could jolt consumer prices for everything from gasoline to cars, stoking inflation fears at a time when the Federal Reserve is gearing up to digest key inflation data later this week. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a Fed favourite, is on the horizon, and any sign of tariff-driven price spikes could complicate its delicate balancing act between growth and inflation control.

Markets are already pricing in this tension, with US Treasury yields dipping slightly—10-year yields fell 2 basis points to 4.40 per cent, and 2-year yields hovered around 4.17 per cent. It’s a subtle shift, but it signals investors seeking safety amid the storm.

Across the Atlantic, there’s a glimmer of stability amidst the chaos. Germany’s federal election on Sunday delivered a win for Friedrich Merz and the conservative CDU/CSU coalition, a result that’s been met with cautious optimism. Merz’s victory sidesteps the extremes of populist upheaval, offering a steady hand to Europe’s largest economy at a time when trade tensions could easily spill over into the Eurozone.

German stocks have seen a modest lift from this outcome, though broader European indices like the Stoxx 600 haven’t escaped the tariff-related gloom, shedding 0.7 per cent earlier this week. It’s a reminder that while domestic politics can provide a buffer, the interconnectedness of global trade means no one’s fully insulated from Trump’s tariff salvo.

Over in Asia, the mood is decidedly sour. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index dropped 0.91 per cent on Monday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 relinquishing early gains to close down 0.58 per cent and 0.22 per cent, respectively. Chinese tech stocks, already battered by regulatory scrutiny and a slowing domestic economy, took another hit as Trump’s memorandum targeting Chinese investment in US tech and energy sectors added fuel to the fire.

This isn’t just about tariffs—it’s a broader signal of escalating US-China rivalry, with strategic sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy caught in the crosshairs. Early trading in Asia this morning showed indices still in the red, though US equity futures are hinting at a potential rebound when Wall Street opens later today. It’s a classic push-and-pull—risk-off sentiment clashing with bargain-hunting optimism.

Commodities, meanwhile, are telling their own story. Gold climbed 0.4 per cent to a record high on Monday, a clear sign that safe-haven demand is surging as investors brace for turbulence. Brent crude nudged up 0.5 per cent, buoyed by fresh US sanctions on Iran and OPEC’s pledge to offset overproduction, though the bigger picture remains murky.

Tariffs on Canadian oil could tighten North American supply chains, potentially pushing prices higher, but a broader trade war might dampen global demand, pulling them back down. It’s a tug-of-war that’s keeping oil traders on their toes. The US Dollar Index, meanwhile, held steady at 106.66, reflecting a market that’s not yet ready to bet big on either a flight to safety or a risk-on rally.

Now, let’s pivot to the crypto corner, where the mood is even bleaker. Ether, Solana, and Dogecoin are reeling, down 5 per cent, 8.3 per cent, and 7 per cent respectively, as the sector licks its wounds from last week’s massive hack—the biggest in its history. Since mid-December, most altcoins have shed 30-80 per cent of their value, according to Arca, a digital asset manager.

Bitcoin’s holding up better, hovering around US$94,300, but the broader crypto market is under siege. The guilty plea from OKX, a major exchange, for violating US anti-money laundering laws doesn’t help—it’s a US$505 million reminder of the regulatory risks still haunting the space.

Yet, there’s a silver lining in South Korea, where the Financial Services Commission (FSC) just greenlit a roadmap for institutional investors to dive into digital assets. Starting in the second half of 2025, corporates can open real-name accounts to sell crypto for fiat, with plans to expand access gradually. Blockchain advisor Anndy Lian’s bold prediction—that this could vault South Korea to the top of global crypto trading by year-end—might seem ambitious, but it underscores the shifting tides in institutional adoption.

So, where does this leave us? From my vantage point, the global risk sentiment feels like a tightrope walk. The tariff threats are real and imminent, with Canada and Mexico bracing for impact next week. The US economy, already navigating a post-pandemic recovery, could face higher costs and slower growth if trade frictions escalate, though Trump’s camp would argue it’s a necessary move to protect American jobs.

China’s tech clampdown adds another layer of complexity, potentially accelerating a decoupling that’s been years in the making. Yet, there are counterweights—Germany’s political stability, South Korea’s crypto pivot, and the resilience of safe-haven assets like gold suggest pockets of calm amid the storm.

I can’t help but see this as a pivotal moment. The data backs up the unease: equity indices are faltering, yields are softening, and crypto’s taking a beating. But there’s also a case for cautious optimism—US futures are pointing up, and Asia’s losses could be a buying opportunity for the bold. My take? We’re in for a bumpy ride, but markets have a way of finding their footing.

The real test will come later this week with those US inflation numbers—if they’re hotter than expected, all bets are off. For now, I’d keep an eye on gold and the dollar, the quiet sentinels of a world holding its breath.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-on-edge-trade-wars-tariffs-and-crypto-chaos-in-focus-20250225/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j