Tag Archives: under

Risk assets retreat under macro pressure: Gold, crypto, and tech lead the decline

Risk assets retreat under macro pressure: Gold, crypto, and tech lead the decline

The global markets entered a state of cautious recalibration as risk sentiment softened amid a confluence of political, monetary, and liquidity-driven pressures. The catalyst for the shift was President Donald Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee.

While the announcement aimed to reassure markets about the Fed’s institutional independence, it simultaneously stoked fears of a more hawkish policy trajectory than previously anticipated. This development coincided with a brief partial government shutdown over the weekend, though lawmakers are expected to swiftly pass a funding agreement once the House reconvenes. Against this backdrop, investors turned their attention toward Friday’s January employment report, which may offer critical clues about labour market fragility and, by extension, the timing of future rate cuts.

Equity markets reflected this growing unease. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37 per cent, the S&P 500 dropped 0.43 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.94 per cent, weighed down by profit-taking in leading technology names. The VIX index, a barometer of market volatility, climbed to 17.44, signalling rising investor anxiety.

With major tech earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, and Palantir on deck, the sector faces renewed scrutiny not just on fundamentals but on its sensitivity to macro conditions. The prevailing view remains that the US economic recovery is uneven, warranting a strategic pivot toward broader diversification through vehicles like the S&P Equal Weighted or Low Volatility Index, rather than continued concentration in mega-cap tech. Beyond artificial intelligence narratives, select cyclicals such as financials and industrials, along with defensive healthcare segments, appear increasingly attractive.

Fixed income markets reacted with nuance to the Warsh nomination. The two-year Treasury yield declined by 3.7 basis points to 3.522 per cent, while the ten-year yield edged up slightly by 0.4 basis points to 4.235 per cent. This flattening at the short end suggests markets priced in a potential delay in near-term rate cuts, given Warsh’s reputation for monetary conservatism.

Nevertheless, the baseline expectation holds for two rate reductions in the second and third quarters of 2026, contingent on labor market deterioration. In this environment, extending bond duration to the five-to-seven-year range and accumulating high-quality fixed income, particularly in developed and emerging market investment grade, offers a prudent hedge against both volatility and eventual easing.

Currency markets mirrored the dollar’s resilience. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.74 per cent to 96.991, with the euro falling to 1.1851 and the yen weakening to 154.78 against the greenback. Notably, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi briefly fueled yen weakness by calling a softer currency a huge opportunity for exporters, a remark she later walked back. Despite the dollar’s short-term strength, the longer-term outlook anticipates depreciation, driven by expected Fed easing. Consequently, EUR/USD is positioned for gains, while USD/JPY should trend lower as broad-based dollar weakness takes hold.

Commodities experienced a historic collapse in precious metals. Gold plunged 8.9 per cent to US$4,894 per ounce, and silver cratered 26.4 per cent to US$85, an unprecedented single-day decline for both. The selloff stemmed not from fundamental supply-demand shifts but from a systemic liquidity crunch that forced leveraged positions across asset classes to unwind.

Meanwhile, Brent crude dipped 0.4 per cent to US$69 per barrel as President Trump signalled openness to negotiations with Iran, reducing immediate geopolitical risk premiums. The outlook for oil remains cautiously negative, while gold’s role as a defensive hedge endures despite its recent volatility.

In Asia, regional equities followed global trends lower, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbling 2.1 per cent and Taiwan’s TWSE retreating 1.5 per cent. Profit-taking dominated amid elevated volatility in both crypto and precious metals markets. The strategic stance remains overweight on emerging market Asia, with particular emphasis on China’s tech and dividend-paying stocks, Korea and Taiwan’s semiconductor leaders, and Singapore within ASEAN.

The crypto market, now valued at US$2.53 trillion, declined 5.04 per cent over 24 hours, closely tracking the S&P 500 with a 67 per cent correlation. This underscores crypto’s current identity as a macro-sensitive risk asset rather than a standalone store of value. The primary driver was a severe US dollar liquidity shortage, as highlighted by macro investor Raoul Pal, who attributed the US$250 billion crypto drawdown to capital flight from long-duration assets like Bitcoin and tech equities. Compounding this, the Warsh nomination dimmed hopes for imminent rate cuts, tightening financial conditions further.

Secondary factors amplified the decline. The Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 15, its lowest since November 2025, while US$110 million in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated, triggering a cascade of forced selling. In a market with thin liquidity and high leverage, such dynamics can rapidly spiral into self-fulfilling panic.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the US$75,000 to US$78,000 support zone will dictate near-term direction. A daily close below US$75,000 could open the door to a test of the yearly low near US$2.42 trillion. Conversely, stability above this band and ideally a reclaim of the US$2.6 trillion level could signal a technical rebound. However, until macro liquidity conditions improve or institutional ETF flows turn decisively positive, the path of least resistance remains downward. The week ahead will test whether markets can find a floor or if deeper deleveraging lies ahead.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/risk-assets-retreat-under-macro-pressure-gold-crypto-and-tech-lead-the-decline-20260202/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Fed decision looms: Crypto cracks under US$3.07T as ETFs bleed US$3.47B in one month

Fed decision looms: Crypto cracks under US$3.07T as ETFs bleed US$3.47B in one month

The crypto market’s recent pullback reflects a confluence of macro headwinds, institutional caution, and technical fragility, all unfolding against the tense anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. While the 0.87 per cent drop over the past 24 hours appears modest on the surface, it contributes to a deeper 30-day decline of 10.72 per cent, signalling a sustained period of risk aversion rather than a fleeting correction.

This deterioration stems primarily from three interlocking dynamics: large-scale institutional selling, recalibrated monetary policy expectations, and a technical breakdown that has eroded market confidence. Each of these forces not only weighs on short-term price action but also reshapes the strategic calculus for both institutional allocators and retail participants navigating this transitional phase.

Institutional behaviour has shifted decisively bearish in recent weeks. Galaxy Digital, a bellwether firm led by Mike Novogratz, has been at the centre of this trend, transferring 900 BTC valued at approximately US$81.6 million to a newly created wallet, likely linked to an exchange. This transaction aligns with a broader pattern of distribution, including a reported sale of 2,800 BTC worth roughly US$250 million as Bitcoin traded below US$90,000 in mid-November. Such moves signal that major players are taking profits or hedging against further downside, removing a key pillar of support that had previously underpinned the market during rallies.

The outflows extend beyond on-chain movements into regulated financial products. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, once the poster child of institutional adoption, has experienced record redemptions, shedding US$2.3 billion in November alone. Cumulative outflows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached US$3.47 billion for the month, dragging total Bitcoin ETF assets under management down to US$122.92 billion, an 11.5 per cent decline from October levels. This withdrawal of institutional capital directly weakens demand at a time when macro uncertainty demands liquidity and flexibility.

Compounding this selling pressure, expectations for Federal Reserve easing have significantly cooled. Markets now price in just 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2026, a notable retreat from the 100 basis points anticipated a month prior. This repricing reflects a more hawkish stance from Fed officials and resilient US economic data, which together have dampened hopes for a dovish pivot in the near term. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that while a 25 basis point cut in the December FOMC meeting remains probable, the path forward appears less certain and more data-dependent than previously assumed.

This tightening of financial conditions translates directly into lower risk appetite across all asset classes, with speculative assets like cryptocurrencies feeling the heat first and most acutely. A critical counterbalance has emerged from the regulatory front. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission launched a landmark pilot program on December 8, 2025, that officially permits Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as margin collateral in US derivatives markets.

This development is a major structural win for the industry, as it formally integrates digital assets into the core plumbing of traditional finance. While this news provides a long-term tailwind by enhancing capital efficiency and institutional utility, its immediate impact is muted against the overwhelming force of macro caution and profit-taking.

From a technical perspective, the market structure has also deteriorated. The total crypto market capitalisation, now hovering around US$3.07 trillion, has traded below both its 7-day and 30-day simple moving averages of US$3.09 trillion and US$3.12 trillion, respectively. This breakdown below key trendlines confirms the shift from a bullish to a bearish short-term bias. Furthermore, the composition of the market reveals a flight to relative safety within the crypto ecosystem itself. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 58.56 per cent, its highest level in recent months, while altcoin dominance has collapsed to 29.25 per cent, a 12-month low.

The rotation suggests that even among those holding crypto, capital is consolidating into Bitcoin as the primary store of value, abandoning more speculative altcoins. This dynamic is particularly concerning because a healthy bull market typically requires broad-based participation across the asset class, not just strength in the flagship asset. The current setup leaves the market vulnerable to a deeper liquidation cascade if Bitcoin fails to hold critical support levels, such as the US$89,500 mark, which has become a key psychological and technical floor.

The broader macro environment provides additional context. US equities retreated ahead of the Fed decision, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting losses, while Treasury yields continued their upward march, with the 10-year yield breaching 4.16 per cent. In a curious but strategically significant development, former President Donald Trump granted Nvidia permission to export its advanced H200 AI chips to China, contingent on a 25 per cent surcharge paid to the US government.

Looking at this move, while seemingly isolated to the semiconductor sector, injects a complex geopolitical variable into the market, highlighting the ongoing tension between technological decoupling and commercial pragmatism. For the crypto market, which is highly correlated with tech stocks and risk sentiment, any development that introduces new uncertainty or shifts the global liquidity outlook is a material factor.

In conclusion, the crypto market finds itself at a critical juncture, caught between the immediate pressures of institutional de-risking and a less accommodative monetary policy outlook, and the long-term promise of deeper institutional integration through initiatives like the CFTC’s collateral pilot. The current consolidation is not merely a price correction but a fundamental reassessment of the drivers of value in a new macro regime.

The path forward hinges almost entirely on the Federal Reserve’s communication in its upcoming announcement. A dovish tilt could spark a powerful relief rally, drawing capital back from the sidelines and potentially pushing the total market cap toward the US$3.25 trillion range.

A hawkish surprise or a higher for longer message would likely accelerate the current downtrend, testing major Fibonacci support levels around US$2.89 trillion. Until that clarity emerges, the market will remain in a state of cautious limbo, with Bitcoin’s ability to defend its key support levels serving as the primary indicator of whether this is a pause in a larger bull run or the beginning of a more protracted bear phase.

Source: https://e27.co/fed-decision-looms-crypto-cracks-under-us3-07t-as-etfs-bleed-us3-47b-in-one-month-20251209/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

India’s ‘back office’ reputation under threat amid rise in sophisticated cyber scams

India’s ‘back office’ reputation under threat amid rise in sophisticated cyber scams
India’s hard-won reputation as the world’s back office, built on trusted call-centre and IT services, is coming under pressure as increasingly sophisticated cyber scam networks emerge within the same digital ecosystem that underpins its outsourcing success.

A police raid late last month on a Hyderabad call centre that allegedly trained tele-callers to mimic Australian accents has sharpened those concerns, with analysts warning that organised fraud rings could erode confidence in India’s service industry.

According to local media reports, the callers had contacted Australian citizens by falsely warning that their computer systems had been hacked or compromised, then coaxed them into handing over remote access that allegedly enabled the criminals to infiltrate bank accounts.

The stolen funds were redirected to other Australian bank accounts before being transferred to India through illegal channels.

“These operations are no longer ‘old school’ crude phishing outfits, but are professional units replete with linguistic training and cross-border coordination, signalling a shift from low-skill fraud to high-sophistication social engineering ecosystems,” said Raj Kapoor, president of the India Blockchain Alliance think tank.

The manner in which the tele-callers were trained to imitate Australian accents suggested a structured fraud economy, complete with training modules and managerial oversight, he said. “This mimics the organised cyber-fraud hubs seen in Southeast Asia.”

Southeast Asia – particularly Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos – has become a global hub for cybercrime due to a convergence of weak rule of law, authoritarian protection and economic desperation.

The stakes for India to prevent such crime are higher than those for other Asian countries because of its thriving US$150 billion outsourcing industry, analysts say.

“The primary threat is reputational damage – global clients may question whether Indian service providers can adequately vet operations and prevent brand impersonation,” said Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based adviser to governments on blockchain and IT.

Fraudsters leveraging India’s cost advantages and skilled workforce for criminal enterprises created a systemic risk for legitimate businesses, he said.

Lian suggested that India introduce measures for call centres such as stringent “know your customer” procedures to verify client identities and financial profiles, and establish a centralised cybercrime intelligence to prevent such offences.

The Chinese criminal gangs behind Southeast Asia’s scam centres

Industry executives say such institutional and technological tools need to be used in tandem with joint law enforcement with other countries because the manner in which the Hyderabad-based call centre secured information about Australian citizens points to a cross-border network.

“This raises serious questions about data brokerage, leaks from private companies, and unsecured digital ecosystems where personal information is traded like a commodity,” Kapoor said.

A UN report from October 2024 estimated that financial losses from online scams targeting victims in East and Southeast Asia were between US$18 billion and US$37 billion in 2023. These operations leverage advanced technology like AI and deepfakes to exploit victims, and challenge weak legal frameworks.

According to Kapoor, cybercrime thrives because it functions like an open market, with scripts and tech tools being bought and sold.

Indian-origin cyber syndicates were increasingly plugging into transnational scam infrastructures, especially those operating out of Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and parts of Africa and the Middle East, he said.

“Indian gangs are using these global marketplaces to outsource operations, hire foreign specialists or collaborate with offshore crime-as-a-service providers.”

Experts say such cooperation allows overseas gangs to exploit India’s large labour pool while masking their own footprints.

The establishment of a sophisticated cybercrime network is a worry for India’s rapidly digitising economy. According to an Indian government report in late October, more than 86 per cent of households are now connected to the internet with the aim of easing citizen services that range from payment transactions to healthcare.

India’s Information Technology Act 2000, which serves as the bedrock of the country’s cyber law framework, is aimed at addressing offences such as impersonation and cheating through computer resources, but industry executives warn enforcing the law against sophisticated cyber criminals across the country’s vast and diverse landscape is a task fraught with challenges.

Fake call centres like the one in Hyderabad exploit regulatory gaps, digital anonymity and the ease of VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) – which enables phone calls over broadband internet – to mask their geographic origins, according to Amritraj Kaushal, an advocate in India’s Supreme Court.

“Traditional policing tools struggle against such hybrid fraud structures, which merge local recruitment with international command centres,” he said.

Indian authorities say they envision industry-led collaborative centres that would continuously monitor multiple systems and layers within the country’s complex digital ecosystem.

Niharika Karanjawala-Misra, principal associate at law firm Karanjawala and Co, said scaling up public awareness through campaigns would be key to preventing such cybercrimes.

“Once the scam has been committed, no matter how quickly and efficiently authorities act, not only is it close to impossible to recover the full amount taken fraudulently from the victims, the kingpins of such fraud operations often escape punishment, sometimes conducting the operations virtually from foreign countries,” she said.

Industry executives also called for cross-border cooperation between law enforcement agencies to boost crime prevention.

“If criminal networks can globalise, coordinate across continents, and evolve technologically in real time, why are our protective frameworks still confined within outdated borders, old laws and reactive policing?” Kapoor said.

He urged Indian authorities to upgrade their cybersecurity infrastructure against modern digital crime, or risk only firefighting against scammers.

 

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3335229/indias-back-office-reputation-under-threat-amid-rise-sophisticated-cyber-scams

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j