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The Fed, tariffs, and Bitcoin: Unpacking the market dynamics

The Fed, tariffs, and Bitcoin: Unpacking the market dynamics

Global risk sentiment holds steady, yet an undercurrent of caution persists, shaped by a blend of robust economic data, trade policy turbulence, and a Federal Reserve that refuses to tip its hand.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently signalled that no firm decision has been reached for the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, leaving investors guessing about the likelihood of a rate cut. With interest rates unchanged at 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent for the fifth consecutive meeting, the Fed aligns with market expectations but offers little clarity on its next move.

Meanwhile, economic indicators like a strong US GDP and employment figures paint an optimistic picture, only to be muddied by new tariffs and a volatile commodity market. Add to this mix the evolving cryptocurrency narrative, highlighted by Bitcoin’s potential to hit US$141,000, and the stakes for understanding these dynamics grow even higher. What does this all mean for traditional markets and digital assets alike? I will try to explain.

Global risk sentiment and the Federal Reserve’s stance

Global risk sentiment remains balanced, neither plunging into panic nor surging with unchecked optimism. This stability stems from a tug-of-war between encouraging economic signals and unsettling policy developments.

The Federal Reserve plays a central role in this narrative. By maintaining rates at 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent, the Fed reinforces a wait-and-see posture, a decision that met market forecasts but left room for debate. Two voting members dissented, the most since 1993, hinting at internal divisions over the path forward.

Powell’s remarks during the post-meeting news conference underscored this uncertainty, dampening expectations for a September rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a cut dropped to 47 per cent from 63 per cent just a day prior, reflecting a market recalibration after the Fed’s cautious tone collided with upbeat economic data.

This steady sentiment faces pressure from external forces. New tariffs on India and Brazil, coupled with the removal of the “de minimis” exemption for small packages, signal a tougher US stance on trade. The White House’s proclamation of 50 per cent tariffs on “processed” copper (but not “refined” copper) starting August 1st sent shockwaves through commodity markets, with Comex copper prices plummeting by as much as 20 per cent at one point.

These moves threaten to disrupt global supply chains and stoke inflation, challenges the Fed must weigh as it plots its course. For now, the central bank opts for patience, balancing the vigour of the US economy against these looming risks.

Economic data: A bright spot amid uncertainty

The US economy offers compelling reasons for optimism. Second-quarter GDP growth clocked in at a robust 3.0 per cent quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate, surpassing expectations and signalling resilience. July’s ADP employment report added to the good news, revealing a surprising 104,000 new private-sector jobs.

These figures suggest a labor market and broader economy that continue to defy slowdown fears, providing a counterweight to global uncertainties. Investors and policymakers alike find reassurance in these numbers, which bolster the case for the Fed’s steady-hand approach.

Yet, this strength does not exist in a vacuum. Rising Treasury yields hint at underlying concerns. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed 5 basis points to 4.370 per cent, while the 2-year yield jumped 7.2 basis points to 3.941 per cent. Higher yields often reflect expectations of inflation or a belief that rate cuts remain distant, both of which align with the Fed’s current rhetoric and the tariff-driven pressures on prices.

The US Dollar Index advanced 0.93 per cent, buoyed by the Fed’s stance and perhaps some safe-haven demand amid trade tensions. Gold, typically a refuge in uncertain times, slipped 1.5 per cent to US$3,275 per ounce, possibly due to the stronger dollar or profit-taking after recent gains. Brent crude oil, however, rose 1.0 per cent to US$73 per barrel after President Trump threatened tariffs on India over its energy purchases from Russia, a reminder of how geopolitics can sway commodity prices.

Market reactions: A mixed bag

US stock markets mirrored the broader uncertainty, closing with varied results. The S&P 500 dipped 0.12 per cent, the Dow Jones fell 0.38 per cent, and the NASDAQ eked out a 0.15 per cent gain. This patchwork performance reflects investor efforts to parse positive economic data against trade policy risks.

In Asia, early trading showed similarly mixed equity indices, while US equity futures pointed to an indecisive opening. The day ahead promises more clues, with China’s July manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data, alongside Taiwan and Hong Kong’s second-quarter GDP figures, set to influence sentiment further. These releases could either reinforce the steady outlook or tip the scales toward caution, depending on their strength.

Commodity markets, meanwhile, felt the tariff fallout acutely. The copper price collapse underscores how swiftly policy shifts can ripple through global trade. Such volatility could feed into inflation, challenging the Fed’s efforts to maintain stability. For now, markets navigate a landscape where economic growth coexists with policy-induced turbulence, leaving investors on edge but not in retreat.

Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency angle

Bitcoin offers a compelling subplot in this financial drama. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlights US$141,000 as a potential next significant resistance if Bitcoin breaks higher with conviction. This projection ties to the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which tracks the average acquisition price for investors holding coins for less than 155 days.

Currently at US$105,400, this level shows STHs enjoying an 11.5 per cent unrealised profit at recent prices. Historically, trading above this basis signals bullish momentum, a pattern Bitcoin has followed since breaching it earlier this year.

Glassnode’s analysis adds depth with standard deviation bands. The +1 SD band, at US$125,100, has repeatedly capped Bitcoin’s upward moves, with two rejections in recent months. A decisive break above this could target the +2 SD level at US$141,600, where STH profits would swell, possibly triggering profit-taking and new resistance. For now, Bitcoin hovers between US$105,000 and US$125,000, a range that may hold until a catalyst, be it policy or market sentiment, sparks a breakout.

The Fed’s announcement and Powell’s remarks dented cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin sliding in afternoon trading. This sensitivity to monetary policy underscores Bitcoin’s role as a barometer for risk appetite and expectations of Fed action. Matthew Sigel of VanEck argues Bitcoin serves as a hedge against monetary debasement, suggesting that signals of easier policy could ignite crypto enthusiasm.

Historical data support this: Bitcoin rose after four of the year’s prior FOMC meetings, though it dipped post-June before recovering. Lower rates, by reducing borrowing costs, often drive investment into alternative assets like Bitcoin, a dynamic worth watching if the Fed shifts gears.

The White House’s digital asset vision

The White House’s new report, Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology, adds another layer to the crypto story. Compiled by the Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, it champions digital assets and blockchain as transformative forces for finance and beyond.

Legislative priorities like the Genius stablecoin act and the Clarity Act aim to provide structure. At the same time, recommendations urge the SEC and CFTC to clarify rules on trading, custody, and record-keeping at the federal level. Support for decentralised finance through safe harbors and regulatory sandboxes signals openness to innovation, a boon for the sector.

The report’s stance on a Bitcoin reserve stands out. Administered by the Treasury, this stockpile of seized digital assets will be held, not sold, as reserve assets. This move could legitimise Bitcoin further, boosting confidence among investors wary of regulatory hostility.

Conversely, the report opposes a US central bank digital currency, aligning with the Anti-CBDC Act and reinforcing a decentralised ethos that crypto advocates cherish. These developments suggest a regulatory tailwind for Bitcoin, though their full impact will unfold over time.

My take on the situation

I see a world of opportunity and risk in equal measure. The US economy’s strength, evident in GDP and jobs data, offers a solid foundation, but trade tensions and tariffs threaten to erode it. The Fed’s caution makes sense given these crosscurrents, yet its indecision leaves markets vulnerable to swings.

For traditional assets, volatility seems likely as investors grapple with these forces. Bitcoin, meanwhile, intrigues me most. Its potential to hit US$141,000 hinges on breaking key resistance, a feat that regulatory clarity and a dovish Fed could enable. The White House’s embrace of digital assets feels like a game-changer, though execution will matter.

I lean cautiously optimistic on crypto, believing its hedge appeal and policy support could shine amid uncertainty. Still, prudence dictates watching the Fed and global data closely—volatility cuts both ways.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-fed-tariffs-and-bitcoin-unpacking-the-market-dynamics-20250731/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Real world tokenisation fireside chat with Anndy Lian: Unpacking the landscape

Real world tokenisation fireside chat with Anndy Lian: Unpacking the landscape

In a recent fireside chat, Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain expert and author of the book Blockchain Revolution 2030, engaged in a profound discussion on real-world tokenisation. This engaging conversation, moderated by Faraj Abutalibov, Chief Commercial Officer of the Venom Foundation, provided a deep dive into the evolving landscape of tokenisation, offering insights that resonate with both seasoned professionals and those new to the blockchain space.

Lian’s journey into the world of blockchain began in 2013 with his first Bitcoin purchase. Beyond personal involvement, his extensive experience advising governments underscores the practical application of blockchain at the highest levels of governance.

His role as a blockchain advisor to an intergovernmental group further solidifies his expertise. As an investor and fund manager holding a CMS license in Singapore, Lian brings a multifaceted perspective, enriching the fireside chat with a wealth of practical insights.

Tokenisation overview

The discussion commences with Lian providing an overview of the evolving perception of tokenisation. He notes a substantial shift from initial scepticism, especially from governments, to the current scenario where significant players, including prominent banks and governments, actively advocate for the tokenisation of Real World Assets (RWA). Lian emphasises the technological readiness for tokenisation, underlining the momentum behind the RWA wave.

His assertion on the shift in perception echoes a broader transformation in the financial and regulatory landscape. The acknowledgement from major players, traditionally cautious about emerging technologies, signifies a turning point. The active endorsement of tokenisation by influential entities not only validates its legitimacy but also sets the stage for widespread adoption. The emphasis on technological readiness is crucial, highlighting that the infrastructure and tools required for efficient tokenisation are now more accessible and robust than ever before.

However, he introduces a critical concern that often goes unnoticed – the lack of a clear revenue model for companies engaged in tokenisation. Drawing from personal experience with a Registered Market Operator (RMO) investment, he highlights the complexities surrounding assets like properties, where achieving liquidity and establishing revenue models pose intricate challenges.

Lian’s insight into the revenue models of tokenisation ventures sheds light on a fundamental challenge in the industry. While the momentum for tokenising assets is palpable, the path to sustained profitability remains nebulous for many.

This observation prompts a critical examination of the business models associated with tokenisation, urging stakeholders to address this gap for long-term viability. His example involving a Registered Market Operator investment offers a tangible illustration, emphasising the need for innovative solutions to navigate complexities, particularly in traditionally illiquid markets like real estate.

Monetisation models

Lian delves into the monetisation models prevalent in the tokenisation space, distinguishing between established companies and startups. Larger companies with diverse income streams might find a more stable footing, but startups face hurdles in raising substantial funds due to uncertainties surrounding their revenue-generating capabilities. Here, he underscores the necessity for innovation among startups, citing examples such as the introduction of new ERC standards and novel approaches to tokenising assets.

The exploration of monetisation models unravels the varied landscape within the tokenisation space. Lian’s differentiation between established players and startups highlights the nuanced challenges each category faces. Larger companies equipped with diverse income streams possess a more resilient financial foundation.

In contrast, startups grapple with the intricacies of fundraising, compounded by uncertainties in proving their revenue-generating potential. Lian’s call for innovation becomes a rallying cry, emphasising the dynamic nature of the blockchain industry, where adaptability and novel approaches are prerequisites for success.

An interesting highlight is the success story of tokenising art, particularly through Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs). Lian points to the added value brought to physical artworks through NFTs, presenting a compelling case for the broader integration of tokenisation in the art world.

The success story of art tokenisation, especially through the lens of NFTs, accentuates the transformative power of blockchain in traditionally non-digital domains. Lian’s emphasis on the added value of physical artworks highlights a paradigm shift in how we perceive and interact with art.

The integration of NFTs not only unlocks new revenue streams for artists but also democratises art ownership, allowing a broader audience to participate in the art market. This success story becomes a beacon for exploring similar opportunities in other industries where tokenisation can bring about significant value addition.

Challenges of tokenisation

Transitioning to the challenges hindering the widespread adoption of tokenisation, Lian and Abutalibov identify two significant hurdles: regulatory complexities and the prevailing reality. The lack of standardisation across different asset classes and varying regulations in different jurisdictions present formidable obstacles.

The identification of regulatory complexities and the prevailing reality as significant hurdles offer a sobering reflection on the impediments to the widespread adoption of tokenisation. Lian and Abutalibov’s emphasis on the lack of standardisation across asset classes signals the need for a unified regulatory framework that accommodates the diverse nature of tokenised assets.

The jurisdictional variations compound the challenges, requiring a concerted effort from global stakeholders to streamline regulations and foster a conducive environment for tokenisation to flourish.

Lian expands on the scepticism that still exists around the necessity of tokenisation. He observes that despite technological advancements, a sizable portion of the population questions the practical utility of tokenisation, slowing down its accelerated adoption.

Lian’s exploration of scepticism unveils a crucial aspect of the adoption curve for tokenisation. Despite the undeniable technological advancements, a segment of the population remains unconvinced about the practical utility of tokenisation.

This scepticism, rooted in a lack of understanding or clarity, becomes a barrier that extends beyond regulatory challenges. Lian’s observation underscores the importance of comprehensive education and awareness campaigns to demystify tokenisation, fostering a more inclusive and informed approach to its adoption.

Potential tokenisation use cases

The conversation explores potential use cases beyond traditional assets. Lian expresses optimism about the tokenisation of carbon credits, emphasising the traceability benefits it can bring to this sector. Additionally, he notes the increasing recognition of stablecoins by government bodies, especially in the context of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).

The exploration of potential use cases propels the conversation beyond the realms of traditional assets, opening up new vistas for tokenisation. His optimism about tokenising carbon credits underscores the broader environmental and sustainability applications of blockchain. The emphasis on traceability aligns with the growing demand for transparent and accountable solutions in sectors crucial for global well-being.

Furthermore, stablecoins and their recognition by government bodies signal a shift in the perception of digital currencies, with central banks exploring their own digital versions. This recognition not only validates the concept of stablecoins but also marks a step toward mainstream acceptance of blockchain-based financial instruments.

Future impacts on the financial industry

Looking ahead, Lian speculates on the transformative impact of tokenisation on the financial industry. Envisioning increased efficiency in transactions, he anticipates faster and cheaper money transfers if tokenisation is embraced on a large scale. Lian underscores the importance of translating technological potential into practical applications to realise these transformative benefits.

Lian’s foresight into the future impact on the financial industry offers a glimpse into the transformative potential of tokenisation. The anticipation of increased efficiency in transactions aligns with the fundamental promise of blockchain technology.

Faster and cheaper money transfers emerge as tangible benefits, resonating with the ongoing quest for streamlined financial processes. His emphasis on translating technological potential into practical applications becomes a rallying cry for stakeholders to bridge the gap between innovation and real-world implementation, unlocking the full spectrum of transformative benefits.

Drivers of mass adoption

Considering the drivers of mass adoption, Lian emphasises the crucial role of everyday people using crypto. He envisions a “wow” moment when the retail investor base grows substantially, contributing to the next surge in crypto adoption. Drawing parallels to China’s widespread adoption of digital payments, he hopes for a similar scenario where people seamlessly use crypto for everyday transactions more effectively and economically.

His reflection on the drivers of mass adoption shifts the focus to the end-users – everyday people using crypto. The anticipation of a “wow” moment parallels the disruptive shifts witnessed in other technological revolutions. The envisaged growth in the retail investor base becomes a pivotal catalyst for the next surge in crypto adoption.

His comparison to China’s embrace of digital payments underscores the transformative power of widespread user acceptance. The aspiration for seamless crypto integration into everyday transactions highlights the need for user-friendly interfaces and widespread accessibility, laying the groundwork for a more inclusive crypto landscape.

The role of NFTs in tokenisation

Lian concludes the conversation by referencing his book, “NFT from Zero to Hero,” born out of a desire to guide friends away from potential scams in the NFT space. He aims to simplify the tokenisation of loyalty programs for companies. Contrary to the notion that NFTs are losing relevance, Lian points to successful projects like Oracle Red Bull Racing’s NFTs as evidence of the continued vitality of the NFT space.

His conclusion encapsulates the multifaceted role of NFTs in tokenisation. His book not only reflects a personal commitment to guiding others but also underscores the need for education in navigating the dynamic NFT space. The simplification of tokenising loyalty programs emerges as a practical application of NFTs in the corporate realm, showcasing their versatility beyond the art and gaming sectors.

Lian’s debunking of the notion that NFTs are losing relevance becomes a testament to their enduring impact, with successful projects like Oracle Red Bull Racing’s NFTs serving as proof of concept. Far from losing vitality, the NFT space continues to evolve and find new applications, contributing to the ever-expanding narrative of tokenisation.

In conclusion 

In this fireside chat, Lian provides a nuanced perspective on the current state and future possibilities of real-world tokenisation. The challenges and opportunities discussed paint a comprehensive picture of an industry on the cusp of significant developments.

As the conversation delves into potential applications, regulatory hurdles, and the transformative impact on the financial sector, it becomes clear that real-world tokenisation is a dynamic space with immense potential yet to be fully realised.

His perspective emerges as a guiding light for industry stakeholders navigating the intricate landscape of real-world tokenisation. The challenges outlined serve as waypoints for strategic considerations, urging a proactive approach to address impediments. Simultaneously, the opportunities highlighted become beacons for innovation, signalling the untapped potential awaiting exploration.

The fireside chat, rich with insights and foresight, positions Lian as a key influencer in shaping the trajectory of real-world tokenisation, inspiring a collective journey towards unlocking its transformative power.

World Tokenisation Summit was held on the 21st of November, 2023, in Dubai. More information on the fireside chat can be found here.

 

 

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/unpacking-the-landscape-real-world-tokenisation-fireside-chat-with-anndy-lian-20240131/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Regulation Rumble: Unpacking The Coinbase-SEC Showdown And What It Means For Crypto

Regulation Rumble: Unpacking The Coinbase-SEC Showdown And What It Means For Crypto
ZINGER KEY POINTS
  • Fitting crypto into traditional laws: Experts question SEC’s approach.
  • Experts call for collaboration: Establishing clear legal framework for crypto in the US.

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Wells notice to Coinbase has sent ripples across the cryptocurrency industry, with experts expressing concerns over the regulator’s approach to regulating the market.

The SEC alleges several violations and highlighted the potential consequences of the ongoing debate about classifying cryptocurrencies as securities, emphasizing Coinbase’s history of compliance with regulatory requirements.

The experts called for a cooperative stance between Coinbase and regulators, urging the establishment of a clear legal framework around cryptocurrency in the United States in order to benefit the entire industry.

AMLBot co-founder Slava Demchuk expressed concerns over the SEC’s approach to regulating the cryptocurrency market, which attempts to fit cryptocurrencies within existing laws designed for traditional financial institutions.

“I suppose all crypto market will support Coinbase in the battle against SEC. It seems like SEC’s latest active participation against crypto market participants aims at destroying the crypto market in the USA,” he said.

Nikolay Denisenko, co-founder and CTO of neo-digital banking app Brighty, highlighted the potential consequences of the SEC’s Wells notice for the ongoing debate about classifying cryptocurrencies as securities and Coinbase’s defense strategy.

“If Coinbase successfully defends itself, it could lead to increased regulatory clarity for the crypto industry, benefiting all parties involved. Coinbase has a strong interest in safeguarding its position, and by doing so, it contributes to the establishment of transparent regulatory guidelines for the future,” he said.

Intergovernmental Blockchain Advisor Anndy Lian called for a cooperative stance between Coinbase and regulators in establishing a clear legal framework around cryptocurrency in the U.S.

“Listing on Coinbase is so much harder than Nasdaq in my humble opinion. If Coinbase fails this preview, then no other companies in the U.S. will pass it. This is just a way for regulators to know more about the crypto business. The stance for Coinbase should be cooperative and work together with the regulators to create clear laws around crypto which will then benefit the whole crypto industry,” Lian said.

Coinbase described the investigation as “cursory” and said the notice provided “relatively little information” about the alleged violations.

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/03/31509547/regulation-rumble-unpacking-the-coinbase-sec-showdown-and-what-it-means-for-crypto

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j