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Why Bitcoin fell from US$100k to mid US$60k amid macro uncertainty

Why Bitcoin fell from US$100k to mid US$60k amid macro uncertainty

Bitcoin faces a multi-day losing streak that analysts identify as the harshest reset since past major bear markets. The asset peaked above US$100,000 in October 2025 before falling roughly 50 per cent to the mid US$60,000s. A sharp flush to about US$60,000 on 5 February triggered heavy forced selling and extreme options demand for downside protection.

Volatility and derivatives stress levels are at levels last seen during the FTX era and the 2018-style resets. On-chain and valuation metrics have shifted into early bear-market territory. Sentiment sits near extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed Index at 6. This reading marks the second-lowest ever. Key support zones now focus around US$60,000 and roughly US$55,000. Investors watch ETF flows and whether on-chain composite indices recover or slide further toward full capitulation zones.

The streak reflects broad de-risking across spot, derivatives, and ETF flows after a very extended bull run. Analysts at K33 and Bitcoin Magazine describe capitulation-like conditions in volume, funding, and options skew as BTC approached US$60,000. Daily RSI sits near 16. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen around US$400 million in weekly net outflows.

A big drop in assets under management from a 2025 peak has removed an important source of incremental demand. This data suggests the market struggles to find buyers at current levels. The structure looks more like the early part of a bear phase than a brief correction. This implies longer, choppy sideways to down price action appears likely.

CryptoQuant’s Combined Market Index blends valuation, profitability, spending behaviour, and sentiment. This index dropped to around 0.2. Analysts linked this zone to the early stages of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets rather than a mid-cycle dip. A separate heatmap of 10 major on-chain metrics shows all key signals in the red band. These signals include trader profit margins and network activity. Conditions remain inconsistent with new highs in the short term.

Realised price tracks the average cost basis of all BTC. This metric currently stands at around US$55,000. Past cycle lows have often formed 24 to 30 per cent below it. This places a potential high-risk, high-reward zone around that area if history repeats. Analysts flag US$60,000 to US$62,000 as a critical support band. K33 work suggests consolidation between roughly US$60,000 and US$75,000 now forms the base case. Deeper downside awaits if US$60,000 fails.

Broader market context adds weight to this cautious outlook. Major US stock indices ended slightly higher on February 17, 2026. The session saw the S&P 500 swing between gains and losses as investors grappled with persistent fears regarding AI expenditures. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 per cent to close at 6,843.22. It found support near its 100-day moving average after an initial drop of nearly one per cent.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.14 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 32.26 points to settle at 49,533.19. Financials and real estate each rose approximately 1.1 per cent. In contrast, the energy sector fell 1.4 per cent, and consumer staples dropped 1.5 per cent. General Mills sank seven per cent after cutting its annual outlook. The technology-heavy Nasdaq faced pressure from a 2.2 per cent drop in software-focused ETFs.

Commodities signalled risk-off behaviour. Gold prices plummeted more than two per cent. Prices fell below US$5,000 to settle at around US$4,884 per ounce. Oil prices dropped roughly two per cent to a two-week low. Brent crude settled at US$67.42 and WTI at US$62.33. Reports of a new window of opportunity for a potential nuclear deal reduced safe-haven demand for gold. This also lowered the risk premium on oil. AI anxiety triggered a bout of volatile trading.

Scepticism about tech giants’ ability to monetise their high AI expenditures worried investors. Dip buyers helped indices recover by the close. Liquidity remained thin following the US Presidents’ Day holiday and ongoing Lunar New Year closures in China and Hong Kong. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up slightly to 4.06 per cent. The 2-year yield rose to 3.439 per cent.

My view synthesises these disjointed signals into a coherent narrative. The Bitcoin reset aligns with broader macro uncertainty. While stock indices closed slightly higher, the underlying volatility suggests fragility. The drop in gold alongside Bitcoin indicates a liquidation of safe havens rather than a rotation into risk. The US$400 million weekly ETF outflows confirm institutional hesitation. Investors need multiple consecutive days of strong inflows to reset the current bearish regime. The realised price near US$55,000 offers a logical floor, yet history suggests prices could dip 24 to 30 per cent below this level.

The BCMI at 0.2 reinforces the bear market comparison. Traders should focus less on picking an exact bottom. Focus remains on whether US$60,000 and the realised price hold. ETFs and on-chain signals must stabilise before optimism returns. The current environment demands patience as the market searches for a true bottom amidst economic crosscurrents.

AI scepticism in equities and crypto derivatives highlights shared sensitivity to liquidity conditions across asset classes. This parallel suggests that the crypto downturn is not isolated from traditional finance movements. Investors observe that doubts about technology expenditure in the stock market mirror the de-risking seen in Bitcoin derivatives.

Both markets react sharply to changes in yield expectations and risk appetite. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.06 per cent, adding pressure to valuation models for high-growth assets. Higher yields typically reduce the present value of future cash flows for tech firms and diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This correlation strengthens the argument for a cautious approach until yields stabilise.

Nevertheless, the path forward involves navigating choppy sideways action until clear recovery signals emerge.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoin-fell-from-us100k-to-mid-us60k-amid-macro-uncertainty-20260218/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto market bleeds US$44B as US$78M Bitcoin liquidations spark panic

Crypto market bleeds US$44B as US$78M Bitcoin liquidations spark panic

Global financial markets navigated a holiday-shortened week with United States exchanges shuttering their doors on Monday, February 16, 2026, for Presidents’ Day. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq stood silent while traders worldwide turned their attention to international venues where activity unfolded against the backdrop of Lunar New Year celebrations that closed mainland Chinese markets for an entire week. This confluence of calendar events created an unusual trading environment in which sentiment flowed primarily through Asian and European channels, without the usual gravitational pull of American price discovery.

Asian markets absorbed the previous Friday’s benign United States inflation report with measured optimism. The consumer price index had climbed just 0.2 per cent in January, a figure that reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year. Japanese equities edged higher as participants digested fourth-quarter 2025 gross domestic product data showing the economy had reversed a deep contraction from the prior period and eked out modest growth.

Australian shares followed suit, with the ASX 200 gaining ground as banking-sector earnings reports delivered unexpected strength. These gains proved fragile when juxtaposed against cryptocurrency markets, which operated independently of traditional asset correlations and plunged 1.85 per cent to a total valuation of US$2.35 trillion over a 24-hour period.

The digital asset selloff originated from an alleged coordinated Bitcoin dump by major exchanges totalling more than US$4.5 billion, according to social media chatter that spread rapidly on February 15. Whether substantiated or not, the narrative ignited a cascade of forced liquidations that erased US$78.23 million in Bitcoin long positions within a single day.

Market psychology shifted abruptly as fear replaced complacency and traders scrambled to reduce leverage across the board. This deleveraging event exposed the fragility inherent in the highly leveraged crypto markets, where perception often moves prices more decisively than fundamentals. Bitcoin itself remained relatively stable around US$68,800 after weekend volatility, but the broader ecosystem suffered disproportionately as capital fled riskier assets.

Ethereum emerged as a critical pressure point in the downturn, falling 5.86 per cent and underperforming the wider market by more than 2x. On-chain analytics revealed a whale transferring 261,020 ETH worth approximately US$820 million to Binance, an action traders interpreted as imminent selling pressure. This technical breakdown below the US$2,000 psychological threshold triggered a domino effect across altcoins, with meme coins bearing the brunt of the punishment.

SHIB, DOGE, and PEPE all dropped six per cent to eight per cent as risk aversion intensified. Ethereum’s role as the bellwether for alternative cryptocurrencies meant its weakness transmitted rapidly throughout the ecosystem, amplifying losses beyond what Bitcoin’s price action alone would suggest.

Currency and commodity markets reflected a more subdued global mood. The United States Dollar Index held steady at 96.82 while the Japanese yen weakened slightly by 0.2 per cent to approximately 152.80 per dollar. Energy markets remained under pressure with Brent crude trading below US$68 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate hovering near US$63.

Gold continued its remarkable ascent, trading near US$5,014 per ounce, a level that speaks to persistent demand for non-yielding safe havens despite improving inflation data. These traditional markets operated with relative calm compared to the turbulence in digital assets, highlighting a growing divergence between crypto and conventional financial instruments during periods of stress.

European markets in the United Kingdom and the Eurozone maintained normal operations with participants awaiting key economic releases later in the week, including industrial production and consumer confidence figures. Without American trading desks active, European volumes remained thin, and directional moves were limited.

This vacuum allowed cryptocurrency markets to dominate financial headlines despite their comparatively small size relative to global equity and bond markets. The episode underscored how digital assets now command disproportionate media attention and retail trader focus even during periods when traditional markets observe holidays.

From my perspective, this selloff represents a necessary correction after months of speculative excess rather than a fundamental breakdown in the crypto thesis. The market had become dangerously overleveraged with traders assuming perpetual upward momentum.

The alleged exchange, whether factual or exaggerated, served as the catalyst that exposed this fragility. What matters now is whether organic buying emerges to absorb the liquidation cascade. Retail participation reportedly increased over the weekend, according to on-chain metrics, but whether this demand proves durable remains uncertain.

The critical technical level to watch sits at US$2.17 trillion, the yearly low that, if breached, could trigger another leg down toward deeper support zones. A sustained hold above the 24-hour pivot point of US$2.36 trillion would suggest buyers have regained control, and consolidation may follow.

The disconnect between stable traditional markets and volatile crypto markets during this holiday period reveals an important evolution. Digital assets increasingly trade on their own internal dynamics rather than macroeconomic cues that drive stocks and bonds.

United States inflation data that buoyed Asian equities did little to support cryptocurrencies, which instead reacted to exchange flows, whale movements, and social media narratives. This decoupling suggests crypto has matured into its own distinct asset class with unique drivers, though it also highlights persistent immaturity in risk management practices among participants.

Looking ahead, the resumption of United States trading on Tuesday, February 17, will provide crucial context. American institutional players re-entering the market could either stabilise crypto prices through dip buying or accelerate declines if they follow the lead of leveraged speculators exiting positions.

The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory remains generally supportive of risk assets, but crypto markets must first resolve their internal imbalances before external factors regain influence. Until exchange inflows subside and Ethereum reclaims US$2,000, the path of least resistance points downward.

This episode ultimately reinforces a timeless market truth. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. The 1.85 per cent decline in total crypto market capitalisation masks far more violent price action beneath the surface, where highly leveraged positions faced liquidation at accelerating speeds.

For long-term believers, such corrections serve a cleansing function, removing weak hands and excessive speculation. For short-term traders, they represent existential threats.

The market now stands at an inflection point where sentiment hangs in delicate balance between capitulation and recovery. How it resolves will depend less on macroeconomic data and more on whether spot demand can absorb the remaining sell-side pressure before fear metastasises further.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-market-bleeds-us44b-as-us78m-bitcoin-liquidations-spark-panic-20260216/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Markets in freefall: AI fears trigger US$4B Bitcoin ETF exodus

Markets in freefall: AI fears trigger US$4B Bitcoin ETF exodus

From Wall Street to Asian bourses, from oil futures to digital currencies, the message is clear: risk appetite has evaporated, and a defensive crouch has become the default stance. This is not merely a localised correction or sector-specific adjustment. This is a full-scale recalibration of market sentiment, driven by artificial intelligence anxieties, robust economic data that complicates the rate-cut narrative, and a commodity complex under siege from supply gluts.

In my view, what we are witnessing represents a significant stress test for the interconnected global financial system, and the results so far paint a sobering picture.

The epicentre of this week’s turmoil lies squarely on Wall Street, where fresh concerns about the long-term implications of artificial intelligence on commercial real estate and software sectors triggered a violent selloff on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 2.03 per cent, erasing weeks of gains in a single trading session. The S&P 500 fared only marginally better, dropping 1.57 per cent as investors scrambled to reduce exposure to growth-oriented names.

These are not trivial declines. They reflect a fundamental reassessment of valuations in sectors that have carried the market to record highs over the past year. The AI revolution, once celebrated as a catalyst for unprecedented productivity gains, has now become a source of anxiety as market participants question whether the technology will disrupt more businesses than it creates.

This flight from risk assets has produced a predictable but nonetheless significant rotation into safe havens. United States Treasuries rallied sharply, pushing the 10-year yield down to approximately 4.09 per cent, its lowest level since early December. This move tells us something important about investor psychology right now.

When capital flows aggressively into government bonds amid strong economic data, it signals that fear has overtaken greed as the dominant market emotion. The traditional playbook would suggest that robust employment figures and resilient consumer spending should push yields higher. Instead, the opposite has occurred, revealing the depth of concern about potential dislocations in equity markets.

The commodity complex has not escaped the carnage. Oil prices fell more than 2 per cent after a devastating report from the International Energy Agency projected a record global crude surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026. This figure represents a supply glut of historic proportions, one that threatens to keep energy prices depressed for the foreseeable future.

For oil-producing nations and energy companies, this outlook presents serious challenges to fiscal planning and capital expenditure decisions. For consumers and central bankers, lower energy costs could provide some relief on the inflation front, though the broader economic implications of a weakening commodity complex remain concerning.

Gold, traditionally the ultimate safe haven during periods of market stress, has also stumbled. The precious metal tumbled below the US$5,000 per ounce mark as strong jobs data dampened hopes for immediate interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. This development highlights a fascinating tension in current market dynamics.

Investors want protection from equity volatility, but they also recognise that a strong labour market gives the Fed little incentive to ease monetary policy. Higher-for-longer interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, creating downward pressure even during periods of elevated uncertainty.

Perhaps the most instructive lesson from this week’s market action comes from the cryptocurrency sector, which has declined 1.55 per cent over the past 24 hours, bringing its total market capitalisation to US$2.28 trillion. What makes this move particularly significant is not its magnitude but its correlation structure.

The crypto market now exhibits a 93 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 and an 89 per cent correlation with gold over the same period. These figures demolish any remaining arguments that digital assets function as uncorrelated portfolio diversifiers during stress events. When correlations approach unity across asset classes, it tells us that macro forces, specifically interest rate expectations and dollar dynamics, are driving all boats in the same direction.

The institutional dimension of the crypto selloff deserves careful attention. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund assets under management fell to US$97.31 billion the previous day, indicating sustained selling pressure from professional investors. This was compounded by US$80.21 million representing long positions that were forcibly closed.

The combination of spot selling and leveraged position unwinding created a negative feedback loop that amplified the downward move. In my assessment, this dynamic represents one of the most vulnerable aspects of the current crypto market structure, where institutional flows and derivative markets can interact in ways that accelerate price moves beyond what fundamentals would justify.

Looking ahead, the technical picture for Bitcoin centres on the US$66,000 support zone. A decisive break below this level could open the door to a swift decline toward US$50,000, a scenario that Standard Chartered has publicly identified as possible.

The key near-term catalyst will be the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for release on February 19, which could provide crucial guidance on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Until then, markets will likely remain in a holding pattern, with participants reluctant to commit capital until they have greater clarity on the direction of monetary policy.

My view on the current situation is that we are experiencing a necessary and ultimately healthy correction in asset prices that had become stretched by optimism about technological transformation and monetary easing. The AI narrative, while powerful, had pushed valuations in certain sectors to levels that assumed perfection in execution and adoption.

Reality rarely cooperates with such assumptions. Similarly, the expectation that central banks would rush to cut rates despite solid economic data always seemed premature. Markets are now adjusting to a more realistic assessment of both opportunities and risks.

The path forward will depend heavily on whether institutional investors interpret current price levels as buying opportunities or as warnings to further reduce exposure. Daily ETF flow data will provide the most immediate signal of sentiment. A return to consistent net inflows would suggest that professional capital views the selloff as a dip worth buying. Continued outflows would indicate that de-risking has further to run.

For now, the burden of proof rests with the bulls, who must demonstrate that support levels will hold up against persistent macroeconomic headwinds and technical pressure. The markets have spoken clearly this week, and their message is one of caution, recalibration, and respect for the powerful forces that shape global capital flows.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-in-freefall-ai-fears-trigger-us4b-bitcoin-etf-exodus-20260213/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j