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The US$71000 Bitcoin bounce lacks foundation but Japan’s rally has real teeth

The US$71000 Bitcoin bounce lacks foundation but Japan’s rally has real teeth

Asian markets delivered a powerful statement of confidence on Monday, February 9, 2026, as investors embraced a wave of fiscal optimism sweeping across the region. Japan led the charge with extraordinary force as the Nikkei 225 surged more than 2700 points in a single session to reach an intraday historic peak of 57337.07. This remarkable advance followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory, which immediately reshaped market expectations toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and potential tax cuts.

The political mandate translated directly into investor enthusiasm, particularly for technology and financial shares, which absorbed most of the buying interest. This Japanese momentum proved contagious, creating a positive feedback loop that lifted markets from Shanghai to Sydney as regional investors recalibrated their outlook toward growth rather than caution.

China participated meaningfully in this regional uplift, with the Shanghai Composite climbing 1.25 per cent to approach the 4100 level. The advance carried particular significance because it coincided with the release of consumer price index data showing inflation at 0.8 per cent year over year. This reading suggested a subtle but important shift away from the deflationary pressures that had constrained Chinese markets for an extended period.

Investors interpreted the data as evidence that Beijing’s economic stabilisation efforts might finally be gaining traction, providing a foundation for cautious optimism even amid ongoing structural challenges. The modest inflation print provided a psychological pivot point, allowing market participants to envision a scenario in which domestic demand could gradually reawaken, supporting corporate earnings and asset values across the Chinese equity landscape.

Australia completed the regional trifecta with the S&P ASX 200 closing substantially higher at 8875.10. This performance proved especially notable given that the Reserve Bank of Australia had recently raised interest rates to 3.85 per cent, a move that typically pressures equity valuations. The market demonstrated resilience, absorbing the hawkish monetary policy signal while focusing instead on the broader global risk environment emanating from Tokyo and reinforced by developments in other major economies.

Australian financial and resources stocks benefited from synchronised regional strength, while the currency remained stable against the yen and the dollar, suggesting investors viewed the rally as sustainable rather than speculative. This ability to rally despite tighter monetary conditions underscored the depth of the sentiment shift across Asia-Pacific markets.

The positive sentiment extended beyond Asia as global markets positioned for continued strength. Wall Street futures indicated a constructive open with Dow Jones futures climbing more than 100 points following the index’s historic first-ever close above 50000 on the previous Friday. European markets exhibited cautious optimism, with the STOXX 600 hovering near the 600-point record, reflecting a synchronised global risk appetite.

Commodities participated vigorously in this broad advance as gold breached the symbolic US$5,000 threshold, reaching a weekly high of US$5,037 per ounce before consolidating around US$5,022. Crude oil stabilised as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased, removing a persistent risk premium from energy markets. This synchronised global move suggested investors were pricing in a coordinated economic expansion rather than isolated regional strength.

Amid broader environmental risks, the cryptocurrency market recorded a modest but telling advance, rising 0.86 per cent to reach a total valuation of US$2.39 trillion over 24 hours. The move carried distinctive characteristics that revealed crypto’s evolving relationship with traditional markets. Most significantly, the sector demonstrated a 94 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week, underscoring how digital assets have become tightly integrated into macro-driven market movements rather than operating as an independent asset class.

The primary catalyst for the bounce came from an unverified claim by CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who suggested President Trump would establish a United States Bitcoin reserve, with purchases made at the US$60,000 level. Though entirely speculative, this narrative generated immediate buying pressure, lifting Bitcoin above US$71,000 and pulling the broader market upward in its wake.

Beneath this rumour-driven surface, the rally found genuine technical support. The market had entered deeply oversold territory, with a seven-day relative strength index of just 27, creating fertile conditions for a corrective bounce. Simultaneously, on-chain data revealed substantial accumulation activity, as a whale withdrew 3,500 Bitcoin, equivalent to US$249 million, from the Binance exchange. This combination of extreme oversold conditions and significant institutional-scale buying provided a foundation that extended beyond mere speculation, suggesting some sophisticated participants viewed current levels as attractive entry points despite the absence of fundamental catalysts.

The near-term outlook for both traditional and digital markets now hinges on confirmation of catalysts. For Asian equities, the sustainability of the rally depends on whether Prime Minister Takaichi’s administration moves swiftly to implement concrete fiscal measures that validate current optimism.

For cryptocurrencies, the entire advance remains precariously balanced on an unverified political rumour, making the move inherently fragile. Bitcoin must hold above US$71,000 to maintain bullish momentum, with a break above US$75,000 potentially extending gains toward the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level corresponding to a US$2.4 trillion total market capitalisation. Conversely, a rejection below US$68,000 would invalidate the bounce, signalling a return to distribution patterns.

My perspective on this market environment recognises two distinct but parallel narratives. Asia’s rally stems from tangible political developments with clear policy implications, creating a foundation for sustained strength if follow-through occurs. The cryptocurrency advance, however, represents pure sentiment speculation lacking institutional or regulatory anchors. This divergence matters profoundly because policy-driven rallies typically exhibit greater durability than rumour-driven spikes.

Yet the exceptionally high correlation between crypto and equities reveals an uncomfortable truth for digital asset investors: their fortunes remain tethered to broader macro sentiment rather than blockchain-specific developments. The market has not achieved true independence; instead, it functions as a high-beta extension of risk assets.

The critical question facing investors now centres on resilience. Will Asian markets maintain their advance when fiscal details emerge, potentially revealing implementation challenges or budget constraints? Will cryptocurrency markets hold their gains if the Bitcoin reserve rumour is officially denied by the White House or the Treasury Department?

The answer likely depends on whether underlying macroeconomic conditions continue to support risk assets generally. With inflation showing signs of stabilisation in China, global growth indicators improving, and geopolitical risks receding temporarily, the environment remains conducive to risk-taking. Investors must recognise that Japan’s policy-driven rally possesses fundamentally stronger underpinnings than crypto’s rumour-fuelled bounce. One represents anticipation of real economic stimulus, the other reflects speculative positioning on unverified political theatre.

Both may rise together in a risk on environment, but their paths will inevitably diverge when market conditions test their respective foundations. The coming days will reveal whether this surge marks the beginning of a sustained expansion or merely a temporary reprieve within a more complex market cycle.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-us71000-bitcoin-bounce-lacks-foundation-but-japans-rally-has-real-teeth-20260209/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

From US$70K to freefall: Can Bitcoin hold the US$60K lifeline after US$1B liquidation event?

From US$70K to freefall: Can Bitcoin hold the US$60K lifeline after US$1B liquidation event?
The market landscape paints a stark picture of unravelling risk appetite, where optimism has given way to caution across nearly every asset class.
Equity markets led the retreat, with the Nasdaq falling 1.59 per cent, the S&P 500 down 1.23 per cent, and the Dow shedding 1.2 per cent. This was not merely a correction. It was a targeted unwinding of the very trades that had powered the post-2024 surge. Two members of the Magnificent 7 announced capital expenditure plans for AI infrastructure that far exceeded analyst projections, sparking fears that the much-touted AI profitability narrative may be overshadowed by unsustainable spending. Investors are beginning to question whether today’s AI investments will yield tomorrow’s returns or simply inflate balance sheets without corresponding earnings growth. The VIX’s 16.8 per cent jump to 21.77 confirms rising anxiety, signalling that volatility is no longer dormant but actively pricing in uncertainty.
This shift in sentiment spilt over into fixed income, where US Treasury yields fell sharply. Two-year yields dropped 10.3 basis points to 3.450 per cent, and the 10-year yield closed at 4.180 per cent, down 9.3 basis points, as traders sought safety amid equity turmoil. The move reflects growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will indeed pivot toward easing, especially as labour market data have become increasingly weak. Weekly jobless claims came in at 231,000, well above the expected 212,000, while December JOLTS data revealed job openings had slumped to 6.45 million, the lowest since 2020. These figures challenge the narrative of a resilient economy and bolster the case for rate cuts in the second and third quarters of 2026, as previously anticipated. The timing remains delicate, with Jerome Powell set to step down as Fed Chair in May, which will push markets into a period of heightened policy ambiguity.
Currency markets mirrored this flight to safety. The US dollar strengthened broadly, pushing the DXY up to 97.824, even as central banks elsewhere signalled a dovish stance. The Bank of England’s hold, interpreted as dovish, sent GBP/USD plunging 0.93 per cent to 1.3525, while the ECB’s decision left EUR/USD modestly lower at 1.1777. Despite the dollar’s short-term strength, the underlying trend still points toward depreciation later in the year, driven by expected Fed easing. Similarly, USD/JPY edged higher to 157.04, but sustained yen weakness appears increasingly untenable if U.S. rates begin their descent.
Commodities suffered one of the sharpest reversals. Gold plummeted 3.7 per cent to 4,779 dollars per ounce, and silver collapsed nearly 20 per cent to 71 dollars, an extraordinary move that suggests forced liquidations rather than a fundamental reassessment. Brent crude also retreated 2.7 per cent to 67 dollars per barrel after Iran confirmed nuclear negotiations with the US would resume on Friday, temporarily defusing fears of Middle East conflict. This calm may prove fleeting. Any breakdown in talks could reignite supply concerns and push oil back toward last June’s 80-dollar peak. Gold’s long-term thesis remains intact, but its near-term path is hostage to macro liquidity conditions and risk sentiment.
Nowhere was the fragility of speculative positioning more evident than in crypto. The total market cap plunged 8.71 per cent to 2.22 trillion dollars, driven by a brutal deleveraging event in Bitcoin. A break below 70,000 dollars triggered over 1.01 billion dollars in BTC liquidations within 24 hours, a 213 per cent surge, creating a self-reinforcing spiral of margin calls and panic selling. Ethereum fared even worse, dropping more than 15 per cent as large holders reportedly moved tokens to exchanges, likely to meet collateral requirements or exit underwater positions. Critically, crypto’s 92 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 confirms it is no longer operating as a separate asset class but as a high-beta extension of tech-driven risk sentiment.
From my point of view, this moment reveals a structural truth about the current market regime. Despite narratives of decentralisation and digital scarcity, crypto remains deeply embedded in the macro financial ecosystem. When liquidity tightens or risk aversion spikes, leverage gets flushed out indiscriminately, and crypto, with its thin order books and high open interest, becomes a lightning rod for volatility. The extreme fear reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, now at 5, suggests capitulation may be nearing completion, but recovery hinges on two variables: price action and geopolitics.
If Bitcoin holds the 60,000 to 62,500 dollar support zone, a technical bounce toward 70,000 dollars is plausible, especially if spot ETF inflows resume or US-Iran talks yield de-escalation. A decisive break below 60,000 dollars could trigger another leg down, potentially dragging the total market cap toward 2.4 trillion dollars. The key signal to watch is a daily close above 67,000 dollars, which would invalidate near-term bearish momentum and invite short-covering.
In conclusion, yesterday’s selloff was not just a correction. It was a stress test. It exposed over-leverage, over-optimism, and over-concentration in a handful of AI-linked equities and digital assets. The path forward depends less on narratives and more on hard labour trends, Fed communication, and geopolitical stability. Until those stabilise, markets will remain in a defensive crouch, waiting for either a catalyst for relief or confirmation of deeper economic cracks.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-us70k-to-freefall-can-bitcoin-hold-the-us60k-lifeline-after-us1b-liquidation-event-20260206/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Markets on edge: AI rally fizzles as crypto plunges below US$2.42 trillion

Markets on edge: AI rally fizzles as crypto plunges below US$2.42 trillion

Investors grappled with stretched valuations and growing doubts about the sustainability of Wall Street’s AI-driven rally. The mood shifted noticeably risk-off, not because of any sudden macroeconomic shock, but due to a quiet accumulation of concerns. Chief among them was whether the market had priced in too much optimism too soon. This unease was compounded by mixed US economic data that painted a picture of an economy slowing just enough to unsettle markets without triggering outright alarm.

The ADP employment report for January showed only 22,000 jobs added, well below the expected 45,000, signalling potential softness in the labour market. At the same time, the ISM Services index came in slightly above expectations at 53.8, suggesting pockets of resilience in the services sector. Together, these indicators created ambiguity, enough to fuel speculation that the Federal Reserve might need to act sooner rather than later, especially with Chair Jerome Powell set to step down in May.

Equity markets reflected this tension. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 0.53 per cent, buoyed by more defensive or cyclical components, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.51 per cent and the Nasdaq plunged 1.51 per cent. The divergence underscored a rotation away from the tech-heavy leadership that has dominated since late 2024. Software stocks bore the brunt of the selloff, revealing investor fatigue with sky-high multiples and limited near-term earnings visibility for most companies outside a narrow band of AI beneficiaries.

The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, climbed to 18.64, its highest level in weeks, confirming rising anxiety beneath the surface. In this environment, broadening exposure beyond mega-cap tech makes strategic sense. Hence the renewed appeal of equal-weighted or low-volatility equity indices, as well as selective cyclicals like financials and industrials, and defensives such as certain healthcare segments.

Bond markets offered little clarity. Treasury yields moved in opposite directions. The 2-year yield fell 1.6 basis points to 3.553 per cent, reflecting bets on earlier rate cuts, while the 10-year yield rose slightly to 4.274 per cent, suggesting some investors still see inflation risks lingering in the longer term. The US Treasury’s decision to hold auction sizes steady provided no new supply shocks, but it also removed any near-term catalyst for duration extension. Still, the expectation of two Fed rate cuts in the second and third quarters of 2026 supports a gradual move toward longer-duration, high-quality fixed income, particularly in developed and emerging market investment-grade debt.

Currency markets mirrored the dollar’s resilience amid uncertainty. The DXY rose 0.18 per cent to 97.616, with the greenback gaining across all G10 pairs. USD/JPY jumped to 156.86, driven partly by political developments in Japan, where Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s anticipated election win is expected to usher in aggressive fiscal and defence spending. Despite this short-term strength, the structural outlook for the dollar remains bearish. With the Fed likely to pivot toward easing while other central banks hold steady or tighten modestly, the path of least resistance for the DXY is downward. EUR/USD, currently at 1.1807, stands to benefit, as does a broader weakening of USD/JPY over time.

Commodities told a story of geopolitical risk meeting long-term fundamentals. Brent crude surged two per cent to US$68 per barrel amid conflicting signals on US-Iran relations. While diplomatic talks are scheduled in Oman, President Trump’s renewed warnings and visible military buildup in the region stoked fears of escalation. That tension could easily push oil back toward last June’s peak of US$80, even though OPEC’s planned supply increases should cap prices over the medium term.

Meanwhile, gold rose to US$4,964 per ounce and silver jumped 3.5 per cent to US$85, both benefiting from safe-haven demand and dovish rate expectations. The precious metals complex remains fundamentally strong, though prone to sharp swings as macro narratives shift.

In Asia, markets staged a mild relief rally. South Korea’s Kospi hit a record high, up 1.6 per cent, while China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.8 per cent, lifted by solar stocks reportedly boosted by visits from teams linked to SpaceX and Tesla. This subtle but telling signal pointed to renewed foreign interest in China’s green tech sector.

The crypto market buckled under macro pressure. Total market capitalisation dropped 6.61 per cent to US$2.42 trillion, led by Bitcoin’s decline. Notably, crypto’s correlation with traditional assets remains elevated, 72 per cent with the S&P 500 and 88 per cent with gold, confirming its current role as a rates- and dollar-sensitive risk asset rather than a true hedge.

A violent unwind of leveraged positions accelerated the fall, with US$654 million in liquidations in 24 hours, including US$197 million in Bitcoin alone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 11, deep into Extreme Fear territory and its lowest reading since November 2025. This suggests the market is in a capitulation phase, where price action is driven less by fundamentals and more by forced deleveraging.

The immediate focus now rests on the US$2.42 trillion support level. Holding here could spark a technical bounce toward US$2.61 trillion, the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement. But a break lower opens the door to US$2.28 trillion. With US Initial Jobless Claims due later today, any sign of labour market deterioration could reinforce expectations of Fed easing, but also deepen risk aversion in the short run.

For now, the confluence of technical breakdowns, leveraged unwinds, and souring macro sentiment has created a fragile equilibrium. The next 24 to 48 hours will be decisive in determining whether this pullback marks a healthy reset or the start of a deeper correction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-on-edge-ai-rally-fizzles-as-crypto-plunges-below-us2-42-trillion-20260205/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j