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Bitcoin’s US$70K rejection was no accident: What the charts say about tonight’s Iran decision

Bitcoin’s US$70K rejection was no accident: What the charts say about tonight’s Iran decision

Investors across asset classes find themselves holding their breath as they await a critical 8:00 p.m. ET deadline set by the United States regarding the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical flashpoint casts a long shadow over trading sessions, creating an environment where relief rallies in digital assets clash with the looming threat of military escalation. The market mood remains fragile, with traders balancing the hope for a diplomatic resolution against the very real possibility of a devastating strike on Iranian infrastructure that could reshape global energy supplies and risk appetite for months to come.

In the cryptocurrency sector, the narrative centres on a failed attempt to sustain momentum. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the psychologically significant US$70,000 level on Monday, fuelled by a wave of short liquidations totalling over US$145 million as bearish traders scrambled to exit their positions. That optimism proved short-lived. By Tuesday morning, the leading digital asset had retreated to approximately US$68,765, marking a 0.7 per cent decline as sellers stepped in to test support levels following the rejection at the US$70,000 mark. This pullback occurs despite a glimmer of institutional confidence, evidenced by US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recording roughly US$22.3 million in net inflows last week. These inflows suggest that while short-term traders remain skittish, larger institutional players are beginning to stabilise their positions and view current levels as an accumulation opportunity.

The technical picture for Bitcoin remains mixed, offering both hope and caution. Indicators such as the Weekly MACD are hinting at a potential bullish cross, a signal that has historically preceded significant upward moves in previous cycles. Immediate overhead resistance remains formidable, sitting firmly between US$73,777 and US$75,000. Breaking through this zone will require substantial buying pressure that the market currently lacks due to the overarching fear of geopolitical instability. This anxiety is quantified in the Fear and Greed Index, which sits at 26, firmly in the Extreme Fear territory. This low sentiment score reflects deep uncertainty regarding how a potential conflict in the Middle East might impact global liquidity and the risk-on nature of crypto assets. Furthermore, the regulatory landscape adds another layer of complexity, with a newly passed provision in the US Senate now mandating that crypto firms collect more user information to combat terrorism financing. This move introduces a long-term compliance burden that could dampen enthusiasm among privacy-focused investors.

While Bitcoin struggles to hold its ground, the broader altcoin market displays a surprising degree of resilience and divergence. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, trades near US$2,126, showing a marginal 0.2 per cent decline as it consolidates within the US$2,100 range. This stability suggests that traders are waiting for a clearer directional signal from Bitcoin before committing capital to the ecosystem. In contrast, other major assets are posting notable gains. XRP has surged 3.8 per cent to reach US$1.34, rebounding strongly from what technical analysts identify as a critical Fibonacci support floor. Similarly, Solana is outperforming the market leaders, posting a 3.1 per cent gain and pushing its price to US$82.09. This recovery for Solana marks a potential turning point after a multi-month bearish trend, indicating that capital may be rotating into high-performance layer-one blockchains that offer faster transaction speeds and lower costs during times of network congestion.

The traditional equity markets tell a different story, one of stubborn optimism in the face of rising energy costs. Major US indices extended their winning streaks, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.44 per cent to 6,611.83. This marks the index’s fourth consecutive session of gains, demonstrating a remarkable ability to look past immediate geopolitical threats. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the charge with a 0.54 per cent increase to 21,996.34, driven by robust gains in the tech sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also participated in the rally, adding 0.36 per cent to close at 46,669.88, reflecting moderate but steady gains across industrial and blue-chip stocks. This resilience in equities stands in stark contrast to the nervousness in the crypto market, suggesting that traditional investors may be pricing in a resolution to the Hormuz crisis or are simply too entrenched in the current momentum to exit positions prematurely.

Global markets are also showing signs of recovery, with Asian indices posting strong performances. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rebounded significantly, gaining 2.00 per cent to 25,294.00, a move attributed to easing fears over regional stability. Similarly, India’s Nifty 50 index climbed 1.12 per cent to 22,968.25, finding strong support near the 23,000 level. These gains in Asian markets provide a supportive backdrop for US trading, although the underlying tension regarding energy supplies remains a potent risk factor. The energy sector itself presents a paradox for investors. Crude oil prices have surged to alarming levels, with Brent crude hovering near US$110 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate reaching US$113 per barrel. Traders are actively pricing in what some analysts describe as the worst oil crisis in history, fearing that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would choke off a significant portion of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

Despite the surge in oil prices and geopolitical tension, gold has failed to act as a reliable safe haven in this specific conflict. The precious metal has fallen approximately 12 per cent since the conflict began in late February and currently trades near US$4,660 per ounce. This decline is largely driven by rising yields and a strengthening US dollar, which reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. The US 10-Year Treasury yield held steady at 4.34 per cent, with bond traders largely expecting the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates through the end of the year to combat the inflationary pressures stemming from the energy shock.

Investors are clearly worried that sustained high energy prices will feed into broader inflation, eroding consumer purchasing power and hurting the growth prospects of retail and leisure companies. The market remains in a state of suspended animation. A failure to reach a deal could trigger the feared Power Plant Day strike, likely causing a wave of panic selling across crypto and equities as investors flee to safety. A diplomatic breakthrough could unleash the pent-up buying pressure visible in the technical indicators, potentially sending Bitcoin back toward its resistance levels and fueling the next leg of the equity rally. Until then, volatility remains the only certainty.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoins-us70k-rejection-was-no-accident-what-the-charts-say-about-tonights-iran-decision-20260407/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Oil surges 59% in March while S&P 500 drops 6%: What this means for your crypto portfolio

Oil surges 59% in March while S&P 500 drops 6%: What this means for your crypto portfolio

Traditional markets opened under significant pressure as the US–Iran conflict entered its fifth week, creating a risk-off environment that rippled across every asset class. Oil prices surged, recession fears mounted, and stagflation concerns dominated trader conversations. This moment demands clear analysis from those who understand both traditional finance and the emerging decentralised economy.

Major indices trended lower across the board. The S&P 500 fell to approximately 6,329 points, marking a 0.63 per cent drop from the previous session. Technology stocks bore the brunt as Nasdaq-100 futures slipped roughly 0.4 per cent amid higher interest-rate pressures. Dow Jones futures fell 0.5 per cent, with the index tumbling over 3,000 points in March alone, representing approximately six per cent of its value. Asian markets showed similar weakness, with the ASX 200 dropping 1.48 per cent in Monday trading, though the energy sector provided a partial offset. These numbers tell a story of capital fleeing risk assets as geopolitical tensions escalate.

Commodities and currencies painted an equally volatile picture. Brent crude headed for a record monthly rise, up approximately 59 per cent in March due to the conflict and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate prices remained volatile, recently rebounding toward US$94.05. Gold saw some dip-buying after a brutal month, trading around US$4,556 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising interest-rate expectations. The US Dollar strengthened as well, with the DXY index gaining to 99.90 as global uncertainty drove capital toward perceived safety.

Three key drivers explain this market turbulence. Geopolitical escalation intensified as reports emerged of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Houthi attacks on Israel, fuelling fears of prolonged war. Recession alarms grew louder as Moody’s AI-driven recession model hit a 49 per cent probability, the highest in years, fuelled by weak labour data and high energy costs. Monetary policy expectations shifted dramatically as markets stopped pricing in Fed rate cuts for 2026, with some traders now bracing for further hikes to combat energy-driven inflation.

Bitcoin presented an interesting counterpoint to this traditional market chaos. The leading cryptocurrency rose 0.429 per cent to US$66,642.41 in the past 24 hours, slightly underperforming the broader crypto market’s 0.49 per cent gain. This movement reflected a beta-driven shift with the overall crypto market as total market cap rose 0.49 per cent on slightly higher volume. No clear coin-specific catalyst emerged, suggesting the move represented general market drift rather than fundamental conviction.

Technical indicators showed Bitcoin trading just above the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$66,012, drawn from recent swing highs and lows. The 7-day RSI reading of 34.31 indicated oversold conditions, attracting short-term buying interest. Spot trading volume sat at US$22.55 billion, requiring sustained increases to confirm any shift in conviction. The near-term outlook remained neutral to bearish, with the price struggling to hold above key moving averages. If Bitcoin holds above the US$66,000 support level and ETF outflows slow, consolidation toward US$67,500 becomes possible. A break below US$66,000 risks a drop toward the next support near US$64,500.

Market sentiment metrics reinforced this cautious picture. The CMC Fear and Greed Index read 25 out of 100, indicating Fear, improving slightly from 23 yesterday but down from 32 last week. This places sentiment firmly in negative territory, though less extreme than the 14 reading from a month ago. Social media sentiment scored 4.85 out of 10, reflecting mildly bearish chatter mixing bullish regulatory hopes with bearish liquidation warnings. The total crypto market cap stood at US$2.29 trillion, down 1.82 per cent over the past 7 days, with oversold RSI readings but weak derivative volume signalling low conviction.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows showed US$296.18 million in net outflows last week, representing persistent institutional selling pressure. The spot-versus-perpetuals volume ratio remained low at 0.26, indicating derivatives dominance. Average funding rates turned negative to -0.0011139 per cent, indicating a short-positioning bias. The total market RSI at 26.23 approached oversold levels, suggesting the sell-off might exhaust itself and create potential for stabilisation.

This environment reveals both vulnerabilities and opportunities in the current financial architecture. Traditional markets demonstrate their fragility when geopolitical shocks hit, with indices tumbling thousands of points in weeks. Energy costs drive inflation that central banks struggle to manage without triggering a recession. The 49 per cent recession probability from Moody’s model reflects systemic weakness that monetary policy alone cannot fix.

Bitcoin’s performance during this period shows why decentralised assets matter in times of traditional market stress. While the 0.429 per cent gain seems modest, it represents positive movement when traditional indices fell 0.5 per cent to 1.48 per cent. The cryptocurrency market’s US$2.29 trillion capitalisation provides meaningful diversification, though the Fear and Greed Index at 25 shows investors remain cautious about digital assets, too. This caution creates opportunity for those who understand that oversold conditions often precede reversals.

The institutional flow data tells an important story. The US$296.18 million in weekly ETF outflows shows that traditional finance participants are reducing exposure amid uncertainty. Bitcoin holding above US$66,000 support suggests underlying demand exists at these levels. The negative funding rate of -0.0011139 per cent indicates traders’ positioning for further declines, which often sets up contrarian opportunities when sentiment reaches extremes.

Energy-driven inflation presents particular challenges for monetary policy. With Brent crude up 59 per cent in March and WTI rebounding toward US$94.05, central banks face impossible choices between fighting inflation and preventing recession. Markets no longer price in Fed rate cuts for 2026, with some traders expecting hikes instead. This environment benefits assets with fixed supply schedules that cannot be debased through monetary expansion.

The path forward depends on several critical factors. Bitcoin must defend the US$66,000 level in the next 24 to 48 hours to maintain technical support. Spot ETF flows need to show stabilisation to reduce institutional selling pressure. The CMC Fear and Greed Index requires a sustained move above 30 to signal a shift in sentiment toward neutral territory. Traditional markets need geopolitical de-escalation to reduce the 49 per cent probability of recession.

This moment separates short-term traders from long-term builders. Those focused on daily price movements see fear and uncertainty. For me, I am eyeing the oil price. If the price is high, nothing good will come of it. Just my opinion. 

—

 

Source: https://e27.co/oil-surges-59-in-march-while-sp-500-drops-6-what-this-means-for-your-crypto-portfolio-20260330/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin holds US$71K as Ethereum surges 15%: What’s driving the US$2.44T crypto rally

Bitcoin holds US$71K as Ethereum surges 15%: What’s driving the US$2.44T crypto rally

The digital asset market edged higher, climbing 0.63 per cent to reach a total capitalisation of US$2.44T over the past 24 hours. This modest advance reflects a market searching for direction amid competing forces, with momentum in the Ethereum ecosystem and institutional staking flows providing the primary lift. The move shows a moderate 50 per cent correlation with the S&P 500, which itself rose 0.5 per cent to approximately 6,591.90, suggesting that macro drivers continue to influence both traditional and digital asset classes.

Ethereum’s ecosystem stands out as the clear leader, with its market capitalisation surging by 15.58 per cent over the past 24 hours. This outperformance stems from concrete institutional activity rather than speculative fervour. BitMine Immersion Technologies launched MAVAN, an institutional Ethereum staking platform that now holds over 3.14M ETH, representing roughly US$6.8B in committed capital. This development matters because it channels yield-seeking institutional money into the network, reducing immediate sell pressure and reinforcing Ethereum’s role as a core settlement layer. The ongoing dialogue around Ethereum’s L1 and L2 strategy further strengthens this narrative, positioning the network as foundational infrastructure rather than merely a speculative vehicle. When large players allocate billions toward staking, they signal confidence in the protocol’s long-term value accrual, and that confidence tends to ripple through the broader market.

Derivatives data support a healthier backdrop for this advance. Total open interest rose 3.34 per cent while Bitcoin liquidations fell 49 per cent to US$44.92M, indicating that the recent squeeze on over-leveraged positions has eased. The average funding rate remains positive at 0.0017 per cent, indicating balanced leverage rather than excessive bullish speculation. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index ticked up to 36, still in Fear territory but a notable improvement from extreme levels. These metrics suggest that spot buying and staking activity, not leveraged gambling, drive the current uptick. I view this as a constructive shift because markets advance more sustainably when grounded in real demand rather than fleeting leverage. A sustained drop in liquidation volumes and stabilisation of funding rates would further confirm that the market foundation is strengthening.

The near-term trajectory hinges on clear technical levels and upcoming catalysts. Bitcoin must hold above US$71,000 to maintain bullish momentum, while the total market cap needs to stay above the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement support at US$2.41T. A confirmed break above the US$2.49T resistance, which aligns with the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci level, could open a path toward US$2.56T. Conversely, failing to hold US$2.41T would invalidate the bounce and likely trigger a retest of lower support near US$2.33T. The potential launch of Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF, ticker MSBT, represents a key upcoming catalyst that could influence institutional flows. I watch these levels closely because they reflect not just price action but the market’s collective assessment of risk and opportunity. Technical structure matters most when it aligns with fundamental drivers, and right now, Ethereum staking inflows provide that alignment.

Traditional markets provided a supportive backdrop for this crypto advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7 per cent, adding 305.43 points to close at 46,429.49, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8 per cent to 21,929.83, supported by strength in AI-related technology stocks like Nvidia and AMD. European indices posted strong gains, with the FTSE 100 rising 1.42 per cent, the DAX advancing 1.41 per cent, and the CAC 40 climbing 1.33 per cent. Asian markets showed mixed but generally positive performance, with the Nikkei 225 surging 3.08 per cent to 53,860 points, the Straits Times Index gaining 1.10 per cent, and the Hang Seng rising 0.88 per cent. This global equity strength reflects cautious optimism about geopolitical developments, including reports that the United States delivered a potential ceasefire plan to Iran, easing some immediate fears of a wider Middle East conflict. I note that crypto’s moderate correlation with equities means it can benefit from this risk-on sentiment while still responding to its own unique catalysts.

Commodity and currency markets added nuance to the macro picture. Brent Crude rose slightly to US$102.97 per barrel, up 0.74 per cent on the day, indicating that energy supply concerns persist even as geopolitical tensions ease. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.38 per cent, reflecting investor expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer, which typically pressures risk assets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 per cent as the euro and pound weakened slightly against the greenback, suggesting some safe-haven demand for the US currency. Bitcoin traded around US$70,727, up one per cent, aligning with the broader crypto market advance. I see these cross-asset moves as important context because they shape the liquidity environment in which digital assets operate. When Treasury yields rise and the dollar strengthens, crypto faces headwinds, and the current advance shows that ecosystem-specific catalysts can offset broader macro pressure.

Labour market data and global economic outlooks also influence investor positioning. US initial jobless claims were expected at 211K, signalling a cooling but still resilient labour market, which affects Federal Reserve policy expectations. The OECD released its Interim Economic Outlook, highlighting the shift towards embedded finance as a structural market driver, a trend that directly intersects with blockchain and digital asset adoption. I view embedded finance as a critical frontier because it represents the seamless integration of financial services into everyday digital experiences, and blockchain technology enables the transparency and efficiency that this integration demands. When major institutions acknowledge these structural shifts, it reinforces the long-term case for decentralised infrastructure, even if short-term price action remains volatile.

The key question centres on whether institutional staking demand continues to grow and whether Bitcoin can sustain its key support levels amid ongoing macro uncertainty. Will Ethereum’s role as a yield-generating asset attract enough capital to offset broader headwinds from elevated Treasury yields and a strong dollar? For now, the data supports a constructive but measured outlook, with clear levels to watch and catalysts to monitor as the market navigates this complex macro landscape.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-holds-us71k-as-ethereum-surges-15-whats-driving-the-us2-44t-crypto-rally-20260326/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j