Crypto in Crisis: What Happens When War Disrupts the Financial System

Crypto in Crisis: What Happens When War Disrupts the Financial System

Since the US-Iran conflict escalated in 2026, volatility across global markets has revived an old question: can cryptocurrency function as a financial fallback when traditional systems falter? Supporters argue that decentralised networks allow money to move even when banks, payment rails or currencies face disruption.

The reality is more complicated. While crypto can offer alternative ways to transfer funds across borders, it remains volatile, heavily regulated and dependent on internet infrastructure and exchanges.

The conflict also triggered sharp movements across financial markets. Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser, notes that equities declined during parts of the market volatility while bitcoin briefly outperformed.

Why People Turn to Crypto in Crises

Cryptocurrency networks operate independently from banks, allowing users to send funds directly using digital wallets. That capability has made crypto attractive during moments of instability, when traditional financial channels slow down or stop entirely.

One of the clearest examples came during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More than $212 million in cryptocurrency has been donated to pro-Ukrainian war efforts. Around $80 million of that went directly to the Ukrainian government.

Prices typically fall alongside other risk assets during the early stages of a crisis before recovering as market activity stabilises. “Markets stabilise or rise within weeks as utility outweighs fear,” Lian says.

During periods of volatility, many users move towards stablecoins rather than more volatile assets such as bitcoin.

Why Stablecoins Often Surge

Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC often see increased activity during crises because they are pegged to the US dollar. That allows users to hold a relatively stable digital asset while still transferring funds across borders without relying on banks.

Their total market value has surpassed $315 billion, reflecting growing demand for dollar-linked digital liquidity. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, says the trend shows rising demand for stablecoins as a way to store and move value during periods of financial uncertainty.

Humanitarian organisations have also experimented with crypto donations. UNRWA USA, for example, partnered with the Giving Block to accept bitcoin, Ethereum and other digital assets to support Palestinian refugees.

How Crypto Platforms Respond

During geopolitical crises, cryptocurrency platforms often tighten compliance measures to meet sanctions and regulatory requirements. Exchanges may block sanctioned addresses, restrict accounts in certain jurisdictions or increase monitoring of suspicious transactions.

During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, Binance restricted accounts held by Russian users with balances above $10,000 and Coinbase froze more than 25,000 Russia-linked IPs.

Amid the 2026 Iran-US conflict, platforms have also increased scrutiny of transactions connected to sanctioned jurisdictions. Chen says these measures balance compliance with accessibility.

Crypto analyst Rume Ophi notes that while digital assets can provide alternative ways to move money during crises, the ecosystem still depends heavily on centralised exchanges and regulated on-ramps. That means governments can still restrict access to platforms or monitor transactions, limiting crypto’s usefulness as a complete escape from financial controls.

The Limits of Crypto

Despite its appeal during periods of financial instability, cryptocurrency remains an imperfect fallback. Prices can swing sharply during geopolitical shocks, exchanges remain subject to sanctions and regulations, and access to crypto often still depends on the same financial infrastructure it aims to bypass.

As conflicts disrupt markets and banking systems, crypto may offer an alternative way to move money across borders. But as recent crises have shown, it functions less as a replacement for traditional finance than as a parallel system that operates alongside it – with its own risks and limitations.

Source:

https://www.wired.me/story/crypto-in-crisis-what-happens-when-war-disrupts-the-financial-system

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Why the ‘All Tokens Are Securities’ Doctrine Is Wrong And What the CLARITY Act Gets Right

Why the ‘All Tokens Are Securities’ Doctrine Is Wrong And What the CLARITY Act Gets Right

The question of whether all digital tokens are securities by default has become the defining regulatory battleground of the modern financial era. For years, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has operated under an implicit assumption that most crypto assets fall under its jurisdiction, utilizing an enforcement-by-regulation strategy that has created profound uncertainty for innovators.

However, a closer examination of proposed legislative frameworks, such as the CLARITY Act, suggests that the answer is a definitive no. Not all tokens are securities by default, and there are structured, legal pathways to navigate this classification through decentralization and functional utility.

The current jurisdictional ambiguity not only delays regulatory clarity but risks creating fragmented oversight that innovators cannot practically navigate. To understand the future of digital assets, one must analyze the distinctions between digital commodities, investment contract assets, and stablecoins, as these categories provide the blueprint for a sustainable regulatory environment.

The core of the issue lies in the misapplication of traditional securities laws to transformative technology. Under the proposed CLARITY Act, a clear distinction is drawn between assets that function as utilities within a blockchain system and those sold primarily for capital raising. The Act defines a digital commodity as a digital asset intrinsically linked to a blockchain system, where the value is directly related to the functionality or operation of that system. This includes use cases such as payments, governance, access to services, or incentives for network validation.

By explicitly excluding securities, derivatives, and stablecoins from this definition, the legislation acknowledges that a token used to pay for transaction fees on a decentralized network is fundamentally different from a stock representing ownership in a company. This categorization is critical because it removes the blanket assumption that every digital asset is an investment contract subject to the rigorous registration requirements of the SEC.

The reality is delicate. The Act acknowledges that some tokens do begin their lifecycle as securities. This is addressed through the category of Investment Contract Assets. Under the Act, an investment contract asset is essentially a digital commodity that is sold or transferred pursuant to an investment contract, such as during an initial coin offering intended for capital raising. In this specific context, the asset is treated as a security and subject to SEC jurisdiction. This aligns with the traditional Howey Test, which evaluates whether there is an investment of money in a common enterprise with a reasonable expectation of profits derived from the efforts of others.

The crucial distinction provided by the Act, however, is that this designation is temporary. The investment contract asset designation applies only during the capital-raising phase. If and when the digital asset is resold or transferred by a person other than the issuer in a secondary market transaction, it no longer bears status as a security. This provides a viable way around the default security classification, allowing assets to mature into digital commodities once they are sufficiently decentralized and traded openly.

The concept of maturity is perhaps the most significant innovation in this regulatory framework. The Act provides a process by which an issuer or a decentralized governance system can certify that a blockchain system is mature, thereby removing the security classification permanently.

To qualify as mature, the blockchain system must be functional for executing transactions, composed of open-source code, operate upon transparent rules, and not be subject to the control of a single person or group. Specifically, no single entity should hold twenty percent or more of the tokens. This criterion is essential because it targets the root of the security classification: the reliance on a central promoter.

Once a network is decentralized enough that no single group controls its fate, the expectation of profit from the efforts of others diminishes, and the asset functions more like a commodity than a security. This offers a clear roadmap for projects to transition out of securities laws, rewarding genuine decentralization rather than punishing it.

Jurisdictional clarity is equally vital to the health of the ecosystem. The CLARITY Act proposes a logical division of labor between regulatory bodies. It would grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction over anti-fraud and anti-manipulation enforcement in digital commodities, including spot transactions. This is a significant shift, as the CFTC has historically regulated commodity markets with a focus on market integrity rather than disclosure regimes suited for corporate equities.

Conversely, the SEC would maintain exclusive jurisdiction over issuers and issuances of investment contract assets. This split recognizes that while the initial sale of a token may resemble a securities offering, the subsequent trading of a functional network token resembles commodity trading. Furthermore, permitted payment stablecoins would fall under the supervisory authority of banking regulators, ensuring that assets designed for payment stability are backed by appropriate reserves and oversight. This tripartite system prevents the regulatory overreach where one agency attempts to fit square pegs into round holes.

The regulation of intermediaries under this framework also offers a balanced approach to consumer protection and market access. The Act mandates that intermediaries handling digital commodities register with the CFTC, while those dealing in investment contract assets register with the SEC. Crucially, it requires exchanges to segregate customer funds and ensure they are held by qualified digital asset custodians. This addresses one of the primary risks highlighted by recent industry collapses, where commingling of funds led to catastrophic losses for consumers.

Additionally, the Act prevents the SEC from barring trading platforms from exemption eligibility solely due to their inclusion of digital assets alongside securities. This provision is vital for the survival of multi-asset platforms that facilitate the broader adoption of digital finance. By modernizing recordkeeping requirements to allow for blockchain-based books and records, the Act also acknowledges the technological reality of the assets being regulated, reducing compliance burdens without sacrificing oversight.

From a personal perspective, the current state of regulatory ambiguity is restricting American innovation. When developers cannot determine whether their code will be deemed a security years after deployment, capital flees to jurisdictions with clearer rules. The data supports the need for clarity; during periods of intense regulatory uncertainty, development activity and market capitalization often stagnate or migrate offshore.

The CLARITY Act’s approach supports the argument that regulation should be based on the economic reality of the asset at the time of transaction, not a static label applied indefinitely. By allowing assets to transition from securities to commodities upon achieving maturity, the law incentivizes the development of truly decentralized networks. This is not a loophole but a recognition of technological evolution. The requirement for open-source code and transparent rules ensures that this transition is earned through verifiable decentralization, not marketing gimmicks.

In conclusion, the assertion that all tokens are securities by default is legally untenable and economically damaging. The provided framework of the CLARITY Act demonstrates that there are clear, structured ways to navigate security classifications through functional utility and decentralization.

By distinguishing between digital commodities, investment contract assets, and stablecoins, regulators can protect investors without crushing innovation. The temporary nature of the security classification for investment contract assets, contingent upon the maturity of the underlying blockchain, offers a pragmatic solution to the Howey Test’s limitations in the digital age.

Furthermore, assigning jurisdiction based on asset type rather than a blanket claim of authority ensures that expertise is matched to oversight. The path forward requires Congress to codify these distinctions, ending the era of enforcement by litigation. Only then can the United States foster a digital asset ecosystem that balances consumer protection with the freedom to innovate, ensuring that the next generation of financial technology is built on shore rather than abroad.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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Crypto market surges to US$2.38T as Middle East tensions ease: What comes next

Crypto market surges to US$2.38T as Middle East tensions ease: What comes next

The crypto market’s 1.65 per cent climb to US$2.38 trillion over the last 24 hours represents more than a simple bounce. This movement signals a market increasingly attuned to macro liquidity shifts and geopolitical risk premiums. The strong correlation figures, 77 per cent with the S&P 500 and 72 per cent with Gold, confirm that digital assets now move within a broader financial ecosystem. This is not isolation. This is integration.

My perspective has long been that crypto’s maturation would be measured by its sensitivity to traditional macro drivers, and today’s action validates that thesis. The relief rally triggered by easing tensions in the Middle East did not occur in a vacuum. It reflected a rapid recalibration of capital flows away from inflation hedges and toward growth-oriented risk assets.

The primary catalyst remains the sharp retreat in oil prices, which fell 30 per cent from recent highs following direct intervention from US President Donald Trump. His warning that Iran would face consequences twenty times harder if it blocked the Strait of Hormuz altered the risk calculus for energy markets. This shock reduced a key input to inflation, thereby boosting sentiment across equities and crypto simultaneously.

The capital rotation out of oil and into perceived growth assets like digital tokens demonstrates crypto’s evolving role as a liquidity barometer. I view this as evidence that the market is pricing in geopolitical risk with increasing sophistication. This sensitivity cuts both ways. A renewed spike in oil could just as quickly reverse today’s gains, underscoring the fragile nature of relief-driven rallies.

Beyond the macro catalyst, the rally displayed impressive breadth through sector rotation and institutional participation. The Gaming Guild narrative led the charge with its market cap surging 8.7 per cent. This move coincided with a 12.5 per cent weekly rise in the Altcoin Season Index, signalling a rotation into higher-beta assets.

Such behaviour indicates that the speculative appetite is returning, but now coupled with institutional conviction. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw renewed inflows, highlighted by Strategy’s major US$1.28 billion purchase. This combination of retail speculation and institutional accumulation creates a more durable foundation for price appreciation. This duality represents the market’s healthy evolution, in which the motives of diverse participants converge to create momentum.

The technical landscape provides clear levels to monitor to confirm this rally’s sustainability. The total crypto market cap faces immediate resistance at the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of US$2.4 trillion. For Bitcoin, a decisive reclaim of the US$72,000 level remains crucial. Failure to hold above these thresholds could trigger a retest of support near US$2.33 trillion. These technical markers matter because they reflect the collective psychology of market participants. I have always maintained that technical analysis in crypto is not about predicting the future but about understanding the present balance of fear and greed. The current Fear Index reading of 25 suggests sentiment remains cautious despite the price advance, which often precedes further upside if momentum builds.

Regulatory developments present the most significant near-term catalyst. The US Senate’s discussion of a major crypto market bill on March 11 at 2:30 PM ET could provide the clarity needed for the next leg higher. I have consistently argued that regulatory uncertainty remains the largest overhang on crypto valuations in traditional financial jurisdictions.

A positive signal from this discussion could unlock substantial institutional capital currently waiting on the sidelines. Any hint of restrictive language could dampen the relief rally’s momentum. This binary outcome underscores why I emphasise monitoring policy developments alongside technical and macro factors. The market’s reaction tomorrow will reveal whether participants view regulation as a catalyst for growth or a constraint on innovation.

Global market context further illuminates the crypto move. US equity markets finished a volatile session mostly lower, with the S&P 500 falling 0.21 per cent to close at 6,781.48. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 34.29 points to end at 47,706.51, while the Nasdaq Composite managed a marginal gain of 0.01 per cent to close at 22,697.10. This divergence between crypto’s advance and equity’s retreat highlights the unique drivers of digital assets.

Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets are poised for a stronger open, with equity futures for Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Sydney pointing to modest gains. In Australia, the latest Westpac Card Tracker data shows moderating momentum in domestic spending at 0.7 per cent quarter over quarter, compared to stronger international transactions at 5.1 per cent quarter over quarter. Europe faced a sharp sell-off earlier in the week, driven by the energy crisis and weak German industrial orders, which fell 11.1 per cent in January. This global patchwork of performance reinforces my view that crypto increasingly serves as a barometer for cross-border capital flows rather than any single regional economy.

Looking ahead, several data points will shape the market’s trajectory. The US Consumer Price Index for February is due at 8:30 AM ET, with economists anticipating a headline rise of 2.4 per cent year over year. This inflation reading could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and, by extension, liquidity conditions for risk assets.

Additionally, the EIA Petroleum Status Report will provide further clarity on crude oil inventories following reports of potential emergency reserve releases. On the corporate front, Oracle Corp shares jumped eight per cent in after-market trading Tuesday following a revenue beat, which may support tech sentiment today. I consider these traditional market signals essential for interpreting crypto’s next moves because the lines between digital and traditional finance continue to blur.

My conclusion remains cautiously optimistic. Today’s rally was a classic relief move, fuelled by receding geopolitical fears and amplified by sector rotation and institutional flows. The fact that sentiment remains in Fear territory with an index reading of 25 suggests the bounce has room to run if catalysts align. I never confuse short-term momentum with long-term conviction.

The near-term trajectory could pivot on tomorrow’s Senate discussion. Will it provide the regulatory clarity needed for the next leg up? Or will it reinforce the uncertainty that has capped crypto’s integration into traditional portfolios? I believe the answer will determine whether this relief rally evolves into a sustained trend or fades as quickly as it appeared. 

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-market-surges-to-us2-38t-as-middle-east-tensions-ease-what-comes-next-20260311/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j