March 20th, 2026

Crypto in Crisis: What Happens When War Disrupts the Financial System

Since the US-Iran conflict escalated in 2026, volatility across global markets has revived an old question: can cryptocurrency function as a financial fallback when traditional systems falter? Supporters argue that decentralised networks allow money to move even when banks, payment rails or currencies face disruption.

The reality is more complicated. While crypto can offer alternative ways to transfer funds across borders, it remains volatile, heavily regulated and dependent on internet infrastructure and exchanges.

The conflict also triggered sharp movements across financial markets. Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser, notes that equities declined during parts of the market volatility while bitcoin briefly outperformed.

Why People Turn to Crypto in Crises

Cryptocurrency networks operate independently from banks, allowing users to send funds directly using digital wallets. That capability has made crypto attractive during moments of instability, when traditional financial channels slow down or stop entirely.

One of the clearest examples came during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More than $212 million in cryptocurrency has been donated to pro-Ukrainian war efforts. Around $80 million of that went directly to the Ukrainian government.

Prices typically fall alongside other risk assets during the early stages of a crisis before recovering as market activity stabilises. “Markets stabilise or rise within weeks as utility outweighs fear,” Lian says.

During periods of volatility, many users move towards stablecoins rather than more volatile assets such as bitcoin.

Why Stablecoins Often Surge

Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC often see increased activity during crises because they are pegged to the US dollar. That allows users to hold a relatively stable digital asset while still transferring funds across borders without relying on banks.

Their total market value has surpassed $315 billion, reflecting growing demand for dollar-linked digital liquidity. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, says the trend shows rising demand for stablecoins as a way to store and move value during periods of financial uncertainty.

Humanitarian organisations have also experimented with crypto donations. UNRWA USA, for example, partnered with the Giving Block to accept bitcoin, Ethereum and other digital assets to support Palestinian refugees.

How Crypto Platforms Respond

During geopolitical crises, cryptocurrency platforms often tighten compliance measures to meet sanctions and regulatory requirements. Exchanges may block sanctioned addresses, restrict accounts in certain jurisdictions or increase monitoring of suspicious transactions.

During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, Binance restricted accounts held by Russian users with balances above $10,000 and Coinbase froze more than 25,000 Russia-linked IPs.

Amid the 2026 Iran-US conflict, platforms have also increased scrutiny of transactions connected to sanctioned jurisdictions. Chen says these measures balance compliance with accessibility.

Crypto analyst Rume Ophi notes that while digital assets can provide alternative ways to move money during crises, the ecosystem still depends heavily on centralised exchanges and regulated on-ramps. That means governments can still restrict access to platforms or monitor transactions, limiting crypto’s usefulness as a complete escape from financial controls.

The Limits of Crypto

Despite its appeal during periods of financial instability, cryptocurrency remains an imperfect fallback. Prices can swing sharply during geopolitical shocks, exchanges remain subject to sanctions and regulations, and access to crypto often still depends on the same financial infrastructure it aims to bypass.

As conflicts disrupt markets and banking systems, crypto may offer an alternative way to move money across borders. But as recent crises have shown, it functions less as a replacement for traditional finance than as a parallel system that operates alongside it – with its own risks and limitations.

Source:

https://www.wired.me/story/crypto-in-crisis-what-happens-when-war-disrupts-the-financial-system

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 4th, 2025

When markets falter: US jobs, Russia, and Bitcoin’s moment to shine

Financial markets around the world have felt the ripple effects, with stock indices tumbling, Treasury yields dropping, and safe-haven assets like gold gaining ground. At the same time, Bitcoin has bucked the broader market trend, posting a modest gain amid a mix of institutional interest and technical factors.

As someone who closely follows economic and market developments, I find this confluence of events fascinating. It highlights how interconnected global markets are and how alternative assets like Bitcoin can sometimes move independently of traditional risk indicators.

A retreat in global risk sentiment

The retreat in global risk sentiment stems from two major catalysts: a weaker-than-expected US jobs report and escalating tensions between the US and Russia. The jobs report, released for July, showed non-farm payrolls growing by just 73,000, falling well short of the 104,000 that economists had anticipated.

To make matters worse, the previous two months’ figures underwent a sharp downward revision of 258,000 jobs. This kind of miss, combined with such a significant adjustment, sends a clear signal that the US labor market might be cooling faster than anyone expected. This isn’t just a statistical blip. It raises legitimate questions about whether the US economy, often seen as the backbone of global growth, could be heading toward a slowdown or even a recession.

Adding fuel to the fire, geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia have flared up again. The US recently slapped new sanctions on Russia, and Moscow responded with countermeasures. This back-and-forth has stoked fears of a broader conflict, one that could disrupt global trade and energy markets at a time when the world economy already feels fragile.

This is a classic case of uncertainty driving market behaviour. Investors hate unknowns, and right now, there’s a lot they can’t predict about how this standoff might play out.

The impact on financial markets has been immediate and pronounced. In the US, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6 per cent, the Dow Jones fell 1.2 per cent, and the NASDAQ took a steeper 2.2 per cent hit. Volatility spiked, with the VIX climbing above 20 for the first time in over a month. Over in Asia, stocks closed last Friday on a weak note, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index shedding 1.58 per cent.

South Korea’s KOSPI bore the brunt of the decline, plunging 3.88 per cent after the government announced plans to tighten capital gains taxes on stocks and hike transaction taxes. These moves reflect a broader flight from risk assets. Meanwhile, US Treasuries surged as investors piled into safe havens, pushing yields down across the board.

The two-year yield dropped 27.5 basis points to 3.682 per cent, and the 10-year yield fell 15.8 basis points to 4.216 per cent, its lowest in a month. The US Dollar Index slid 0.8 per cent, while gold jumped 2.2 per cent and Brent crude oil slipped 2.8 per cent on worries about weakening energy demand. This market reaction underscores how quickly sentiment can shift when economic and geopolitical risks collide.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet this week, with only a handful of data releases scheduled. Earnings reports from multinational corporations, pharmaceutical firms, and major insurers will take center stage instead.

In Asia, though, the data flow is heavier, with July inflation figures due from several countries and second-quarter GDP numbers coming out of Indonesia and the Philippines. These releases could offer more clues about whether the global economy is stabilizing or sliding further. I think the lack of major US data might give markets a breather, but any surprises from Asia could easily sway sentiment again.

The US jobs report: A closer look

Let’s dig into the US jobs report, because it’s the linchpin of this risk-off mood. The 73,000 increase in non-farm payrolls for July was a stark disappointment compared to the 104,000 that analysts had forecasted. The downward revision of 258,000 jobs for the prior two months only deepened the gloom.

I’ve seen weaker reports before, but this one stands out for how much it underperformed expectations and how it rewrote recent history with those revisions. Historically, sharp drops in job growth have often signaled trouble ahead.

Think back to the 2008 financial crisis, when non-farm payrolls tanked by over 500,000 in a single month. We’re not at that level yet, but the parallel isn’t lost on me. It’s a reminder that labor market weakness can be a leading indicator of bigger economic problems.

The fallout from this report has shifted expectations for Federal Reserve policy in a big way. Before the data hit, markets priced in 32 basis points of rate cuts over the remaining three FOMC meetings this year. Now, Fed-dated Overnight Index Swaps suggest a combined 60 basis points of easing. That’s nearly a full quarter-point cut per meeting, a clear sign that traders expect the Fed to act decisively to prop up the economy.

I find this pivot telling. It shows how sensitive markets are to labor data and how quickly they can recalibrate when the numbers disappoint. Lower Treasury yields, especially the steep drop in the two-year to 3.682 per cent, back up this view. Investors are betting on a more dovish Fed, and I’d argue they’re right to do so. If job growth keeps faltering, the Fed won’t have much choice but to ease aggressively.

The broader market reaction ties directly to this policy shift. Stocks fell hard because weaker jobs data dents confidence in corporate earnings and economic growth. Treasuries rallied as investors sought safety and anticipated lower rates. Gold’s 2.2 per cent jump reflects its appeal as a hedge against uncertainty, while the drop in Brent crude points to fears of a demand slowdown. For me, this all fits together logically.

A cooling labor market doesn’t just affect Wall Street; it ripples through consumer spending, energy use, and global trade. The question now is whether this is a temporary stumble or the start of something more serious. I lean toward caution here, given the size of those revisions and the geopolitical backdrop.

Bitcoin’s uptick: A bright spot amid the gloom

Against this stormy backdrop, Bitcoin has managed to shine, climbing 1.11 per cent in the past 24 hours. That might not sound like much, but in a market where stocks are tanking and volatility is spiking, it’s a standout performance. Several factors are driving this gain, and I think they highlight why Bitcoin often dances to its own tune.

First, institutional accumulation has played a big role. SharpLink Gaming’s US$108 million purchase of Ethereum signals strong corporate interest in crypto, and US ETF inflows of US$1.18 billion weekly suggest the trend extends to Bitcoin, even if specific BTC ETF data isn’t fresh here. Institutional investors have boosted their Bitcoin holdings by over 50 per cent in the past year, a stat that catches my eye. It shows how much the asset’s appeal has grown among heavy hitters who see it as a long-term store of value.

Second, selling pressure has eased. Miners, who dumped 3,000 BTC between July 16 and August 1, according to CryptoQuant, have since paused their sales. That’s a relief for the market, because miner outflows can weigh heavily on prices. With corporate and ETF buying stepping in to offset what selling did occur, Bitcoin has found some breathing room. I see this as a supply-demand dynamic at work—less selling plus steady buying equals upward pressure.

Third, regulatory developments have added a tailwind. The SEC’s approval of in-kind crypto ETPs has made it easier for institutions to get involved, boosting confidence. Hong Kong’s plan to launch tokenized bonds in 2025 is another positive signal, pointing to a future where digital assets play a bigger role in finance. I’m optimistic about these moves. They suggest regulators are warming up to crypto, which could unlock more capital inflows down the road.

From a technical angle, Bitcoin’s price action looks solid. The 14-day Relative Strength Index rose from 37.72, an oversold level, to 46.09 over seven days, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. The price also held firm at the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci level of US$117,135 after testing it on August 3, and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average at US$99,720 remains a strong long-term support.

To me, these levels matter. They show Bitcoin has a foundation to build on, even when broader markets wobble. The Fear & Greed Index ticking up from 48 to 52 in 24 hours reinforces this, despite US$164 million in long liquidations. It’s a sign that sentiment is shifting, and I’d argue it’s spot-driven demand—real buying, not just leverage—that’s keeping Bitcoin afloat.

My take and what’s next

Putting it all together, we’ve got a tale of two markets. On one hand, global risk sentiment is reeling from a dismal jobs report and US-Russia tensions. Stocks are down, yields are falling, and the Fed might need to step in with bigger rate cuts than anyone thought a week ago.

On the other hand, Bitcoin is holding its own, lifted by institutional interest, lighter selling, and regulatory progress. I find this contrast striking. It’s a reminder that traditional markets and crypto don’t always move in lockstep, especially when economic signals get murky.

As for what’s next, I’m keeping an eye on those upcoming data points: Asian inflation, GDP releases, and US earnings. They’ll either calm nerves or pour more fuel on the risk-off fire. For the US economy, I’m cautiously pessimistic.

The jobs report was a wake-up call, and while some argue the economy is still strong, those revisions and the Fed’s reaction tell me we’re not out of the woods. Bitcoin, though, has me more upbeat. Its resilience here suggests it’s carving out a niche as a hedge against uncertainty, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it keep climbing if institutional buying holds up.

Markets are jittery, but opportunities like Bitcoin show there’s still light amid the gloom. Investors will need to stay sharp, because the week ahead could bring more twists.

Source: https://e27.co/when-markets-falter-us-jobs-russia-and-bitcoins-moment-to-shine-20250804/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

March 12th, 2025

When tariffs danced with Bitcoin and markets held their breath

I’ve been closely following the whirlwind of events shaping global markets on March 12, 2025. The past 24 hours have been a rollercoaster for investors, policymakers, and analysts alike, with shifting narratives around tariff measures, deteriorating global trade relations, and a bold new step into the cryptocurrency realm by the US government.

From President Trump’s tariff tango with Canada to the unveiling of a Crypto Strategic Reserve, there’s a lot to unpack. Here’s my take on what’s driving the global risk sentiment, how markets are reacting, and what this all might mean for the future—grounded in the data and developments at hand.

Let’s start with the tariff saga, which has been the headline-grabber of the day. Overnight, President Trump sent shockwaves through markets by threatening to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to a hefty 50 per cent. This wasn’t just a shot across the bow—it was a cannon blast aimed at one of the US’s closest trading partners.

The move came after a weekend interview where Trump had already stoked recessionary fears by hinting at aggressive trade policies to protect American interests. For a moment, it looked like we were hurtling toward a full-blown trade war escalation.

But then, in a classic Trumpian pivot, he walked it back to the previously announced 25 per cent rate after Ontario agreed to suspend a 25 per cent surcharge on electricity exports to the US This rapid de-escalation underscores a pattern we’ve seen before: bold threats followed by pragmatic deal-making. It’s a high-stakes game of chicken, and so far, it seems Canada blinked first.

The market reaction was predictably volatile. US stock indices took a beating on Tuesday, with the MSCI US index sliding 0.7 per cent, dragged down by a 1.5 per cent drop in industrials—sectors most exposed to trade disruptions. The S&P 500, already nursing a six per cent decline from last week (its lowest point in six months), couldn’t shake off the tariff jitters, though it did claw back some losses from session lows.

Across the Atlantic, the STOXX 600 shed 1.7 per cent, reflecting Europe’s growing unease about being the next target of Trump’s tariff threats. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year note climbing 6.7 basis points to 4.280 per cent and the 2-year up 6 basis points to 3.943 per cent.

The yield spread widened slightly to 33.9 basis points, hinting at lingering uncertainty about the economic outlook. The US Dollar Index, however, dipped 0.5 per cent, while gold—a classic safe-haven asset—rebounded 0.9 per cent. Brent crude eked out a 0.4 per cent gain to settle at US$69.56 per barrel, reversing some recent losses but still reflecting oil’s sensitivity to global growth fears.

What’s fascinating here is the contrast in Asia, particularly China. Despite the heavy sell-off in US equities overnight, China’s onshore markets bucked the trend. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) and Shenzhen Composite (SZCOMP) both rose 0.4 per cent, buoyed by robust domestic buying.

This resilience suggests that Chinese investors are betting on Beijing’s ability to cushion any fallout from US tariffs—perhaps through stimulus or a weaker yuan. It’s a reminder that while the US remains the world’s economic heavyweight, other players are finding ways to adapt and thrive amid the chaos.

On the data front, the US economy is sending mixed signals. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February fell more than expected, a worrying sign for the backbone of the American economy.

Small businesses are often the first to feel the pinch of trade uncertainty and rising costs, and this retreat could foreshadow broader weakness. Yet, the labor market continues to hold its own. January’s JOLTS data showed job openings edging up to 7.74 million, or a 4.6 per cent rate—proof of resilience despite the tariff noise.

All eyes are now on tonight’s February CPI inflation data, which could either soothe or inflame market nerves. If inflation ticks higher than anticipated, it might force the Federal Reserve to rethink its rate-cutting stance, adding another layer of complexity to an already jittery landscape.

Then there’s the cryptocurrency bombshell, which could prove to be the most consequential story of the day. David Sacks, the White House’s newly minted crypto czar, announced that the Treasury Department will focus on boosting the value of Bitcoin, XRP, and other digital assets already in the government’s possession.

This follows President Trump’s signing of an executive order to establish a Crypto Strategic Reserve, greenlighting Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) for inclusion. It’s a stunning move—one that signals the US is not just dipping its toes but diving headfirst into the digital asset pool. The stated goal? To diversify national assets and bolster America’s financial posture in a world where cryptocurrencies are increasingly influential.

Bitcoin, currently trading above US$82,000 after a four per cent gain in the past 24 hours, is at the heart of this narrative. It’s a sharp rebound from its recent 30 per cent correction off an all-time high of US$109,350, and technical indicators suggest this dip might be nearing its end. Unlike the brutal 41 per cent crash in November 2021, this pullback feels different—less like the start of a bear market and more like a healthy breather amid unprecedented government backing.

The inclusion of other heavyweights like Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano only amplifies the stakes. This isn’t just about holding tokens; it’s about integrating crypto into the fabric of the US financial system, potentially legitimising it on a scale we’ve never seen.

The implications are profound. For one, it could reshape global risk sentiment in ways tariffs never could. While trade wars dent growth and stoke inflation, a US-led crypto reserve might spark a digital arms race, with other nations racing to stockpile their own reserves.

Posts on X already hint at this sentiment, with users like @digitalartchick noting that the real story isn’t the US buying assets but signalling to the world that crypto is now a geopolitical chess piece.

If countries like China or Russia follow suit, we could see a seismic shift in how wealth and power are measured. On the flip side, critics like @mansikthecat warn of downsides—government control over crypto could lead to price manipulation, undermining the decentralised ethos that drew many to the space in the first place.

From a market perspective, the crypto reserve adds a wild card to an already turbulent mix. Bitcoin’s four per cent jump today contrasts sharply with the S&P 500’s woes, suggesting digital assets might decouple from traditional markets in times of stress. Gold’s 0.9 per cent rise shows safe-haven demand is alive and well, but crypto could soon rival it as a go-to hedge if the US keeps pushing this agenda.

The Treasury’s focus on “increasing the value” of these assets also raises questions: Will they actively manage the portfolio? Buy more during dips? The lack of clarity keeps markets on edge, but the intent is clear—America wants to dominate the crypto frontier.

My view? This is a watershed moment, but it’s not without risks. The tariff flip-flops show Trump’s penchant for disruption, which keeps markets guessing and risk aversion high. The Crypto Strategic Reserve, while visionary, could backfire if it spooks investors or triggers retaliation—imagine China dumping US Treasuries to fund its own crypto hoard.

Yet, the US labour market’s strength and China’s equity resilience offer glimmers of hope. Tonight’s CPI data will be a litmus test: a tame reading could steady the ship, while a hot one might sink it.

For now, I see a world in flux—trade tensions pulling one way, digital innovation the other, and markets caught in the crossfire. I’ll keep digging for the facts, but one thing’s certain: March 12, 2025, will be remembered as a day when the old and new economies collided.

Source: https://e27.co/when-tariffs-danced-with-bitcoin-and-markets-held-their-breath-20250312/