Tag Archives: why

Why Bitcoin fell from US$100k to mid US$60k amid macro uncertainty

Why Bitcoin fell from US$100k to mid US$60k amid macro uncertainty

Bitcoin faces a multi-day losing streak that analysts identify as the harshest reset since past major bear markets. The asset peaked above US$100,000 in October 2025 before falling roughly 50 per cent to the mid US$60,000s. A sharp flush to about US$60,000 on 5 February triggered heavy forced selling and extreme options demand for downside protection.

Volatility and derivatives stress levels are at levels last seen during the FTX era and the 2018-style resets. On-chain and valuation metrics have shifted into early bear-market territory. Sentiment sits near extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed Index at 6. This reading marks the second-lowest ever. Key support zones now focus around US$60,000 and roughly US$55,000. Investors watch ETF flows and whether on-chain composite indices recover or slide further toward full capitulation zones.

The streak reflects broad de-risking across spot, derivatives, and ETF flows after a very extended bull run. Analysts at K33 and Bitcoin Magazine describe capitulation-like conditions in volume, funding, and options skew as BTC approached US$60,000. Daily RSI sits near 16. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen around US$400 million in weekly net outflows.

A big drop in assets under management from a 2025 peak has removed an important source of incremental demand. This data suggests the market struggles to find buyers at current levels. The structure looks more like the early part of a bear phase than a brief correction. This implies longer, choppy sideways to down price action appears likely.

CryptoQuant’s Combined Market Index blends valuation, profitability, spending behaviour, and sentiment. This index dropped to around 0.2. Analysts linked this zone to the early stages of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets rather than a mid-cycle dip. A separate heatmap of 10 major on-chain metrics shows all key signals in the red band. These signals include trader profit margins and network activity. Conditions remain inconsistent with new highs in the short term.

Realised price tracks the average cost basis of all BTC. This metric currently stands at around US$55,000. Past cycle lows have often formed 24 to 30 per cent below it. This places a potential high-risk, high-reward zone around that area if history repeats. Analysts flag US$60,000 to US$62,000 as a critical support band. K33 work suggests consolidation between roughly US$60,000 and US$75,000 now forms the base case. Deeper downside awaits if US$60,000 fails.

Broader market context adds weight to this cautious outlook. Major US stock indices ended slightly higher on February 17, 2026. The session saw the S&P 500 swing between gains and losses as investors grappled with persistent fears regarding AI expenditures. The S&P 500 rose 0.1 per cent to close at 6,843.22. It found support near its 100-day moving average after an initial drop of nearly one per cent.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.14 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 32.26 points to settle at 49,533.19. Financials and real estate each rose approximately 1.1 per cent. In contrast, the energy sector fell 1.4 per cent, and consumer staples dropped 1.5 per cent. General Mills sank seven per cent after cutting its annual outlook. The technology-heavy Nasdaq faced pressure from a 2.2 per cent drop in software-focused ETFs.

Commodities signalled risk-off behaviour. Gold prices plummeted more than two per cent. Prices fell below US$5,000 to settle at around US$4,884 per ounce. Oil prices dropped roughly two per cent to a two-week low. Brent crude settled at US$67.42 and WTI at US$62.33. Reports of a new window of opportunity for a potential nuclear deal reduced safe-haven demand for gold. This also lowered the risk premium on oil. AI anxiety triggered a bout of volatile trading.

Scepticism about tech giants’ ability to monetise their high AI expenditures worried investors. Dip buyers helped indices recover by the close. Liquidity remained thin following the US Presidents’ Day holiday and ongoing Lunar New Year closures in China and Hong Kong. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up slightly to 4.06 per cent. The 2-year yield rose to 3.439 per cent.

My view synthesises these disjointed signals into a coherent narrative. The Bitcoin reset aligns with broader macro uncertainty. While stock indices closed slightly higher, the underlying volatility suggests fragility. The drop in gold alongside Bitcoin indicates a liquidation of safe havens rather than a rotation into risk. The US$400 million weekly ETF outflows confirm institutional hesitation. Investors need multiple consecutive days of strong inflows to reset the current bearish regime. The realised price near US$55,000 offers a logical floor, yet history suggests prices could dip 24 to 30 per cent below this level.

The BCMI at 0.2 reinforces the bear market comparison. Traders should focus less on picking an exact bottom. Focus remains on whether US$60,000 and the realised price hold. ETFs and on-chain signals must stabilise before optimism returns. The current environment demands patience as the market searches for a true bottom amidst economic crosscurrents.

AI scepticism in equities and crypto derivatives highlights shared sensitivity to liquidity conditions across asset classes. This parallel suggests that the crypto downturn is not isolated from traditional finance movements. Investors observe that doubts about technology expenditure in the stock market mirror the de-risking seen in Bitcoin derivatives.

Both markets react sharply to changes in yield expectations and risk appetite. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.06 per cent, adding pressure to valuation models for high-growth assets. Higher yields typically reduce the present value of future cash flows for tech firms and diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This correlation strengthens the argument for a cautious approach until yields stabilise.

Nevertheless, the path forward involves navigating choppy sideways action until clear recovery signals emerge.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoin-fell-from-us100k-to-mid-us60k-amid-macro-uncertainty-20260218/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Crypto market cap hits US$2.4T again: Why institutional whales are buying the dip

Crypto market cap hits US$2.4T again: Why institutional whales are buying the dip

Major US stock indices climbed on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, thanks to a strong rebound in technology shares that calmed worries about recent spending on artificial intelligence. Investors watched the S&P 500 rise 0.5 per cent to close at 6,964.82, inching nearer to the all-time high from two weeks earlier. The Nasdaq Composite, heavy with tech stocks, jumped 0.9 per cent to 23,238.67, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely moved, adding less than 0.1 per cent to end at 50,135.87.

This uptick came after a tough stretch last week, where tech stocks faced heavy selling. Chipmakers drove much of the recovery, with Nvidia gaining 2.4 per cent and Broadcom advancing 3.3 per cent. Oracle stood out with a sharp 9.6 per cent increase. These moves highlighted how quickly sentiment can shift in the tech sector, especially amid ongoing debates about AI investments.

Beyond US markets, international developments added to the positive tone. Japan’s Nikkei 225 reached a fresh all-time high, surging 2.8 per cent after the incumbent government secured a historic election mandate. This boost reflected growing confidence in Japan’s economic policies and stability. Treasury yields stayed calm, with the 10-year note holding near 4.20 per cent.

Traders largely ignored news that China encouraged its banks to reduce holdings of US Treasuries, suggesting that markets focused more on domestic factors. In commodities, gold dropped about 0.7 per cent to US$5,023.82 per ounce, while West Texas Intermediate oil fell 0.4 per cent to US$64.13 a barrel. Traders kept an eye on potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, but no immediate threats materialised. Bitcoin hovered just under US$71,000, steady after briefly topping that mark over the weekend.

Attention now turns to key economic data releases. Retail sales figures arrive on Tuesday, and CPI inflation numbers follow on Friday. These reports will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate move. Investors have begun shifting some funds into real-economy sectors, and demand for AI-related tech stocks remains robust, supporting overall index levels. This rotation shows a market balancing innovation hype with practical economic signals.

From my perspective, this setup feels like a fragile equilibrium. The tech rebound offers relief, but if upcoming data disappoints, volatility could return swiftly. Markets often overreact to hints of inflation, and with AI spending under scrutiny, any sign of cooling could pressure gains.

In cryptocurrencies, the market edged up 0.28 per cent to a total capitalisation of US$2.4 trillion over the last 24 hours. This modest gain marks a brief halt after a steep downtrend, aligning closely with traditional stocks. A strong 89 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 points to shared influences from broader economic relief. Bitcoin’s tentative support after a 46 per cent drawdown stands as the main driver. Selective institutional buying has helped stabilise prices.

Secondary factors include sharp pumps in smaller altcoins and slightly upbeat social sentiment around Ethereum accumulations. Looking ahead, the market’s strength depends on Bitcoin maintaining the US$65,000 to US$70,000 range. Dropping below that could push prices back to the US$60,000 yearly low.

Bitcoin’s stabilisation follows a brutal capitulation phase. The total market cap tries to hold at US$2.4 trillion after plummeting 46 per cent from its October 2025 peak. This aligns with Bitcoin testing a critical historical support at the 1.25x realised price level, which historically divides regular corrections from deeper selloffs. The small uptick indicates that the intense selling from January and early February might ease, paving the way for a technical rebound.

Investors should closely monitor Bitcoin’s defence of US$65,000. A failure there might spark fresh liquidations, extending the pain. In my view, this support level acts like a psychological floor. Historical patterns suggest bounces often follow such tests, but current macro uncertainties make outcomes less predictable. The correlation with stocks amplifies risks, as any equity dip could drag crypto lower.

Speculative activity and changes in sentiment add layers to the recovery. While the overall market stayed flat, low-cap altcoins like GPS, AXS, and ZKP surged 20 per cent to 75 per cent on large volume. This shows capital flowing into riskier bets for fast profits, though it falls short of a full altcoin rally. Social sentiment for assets like Ethereum improved to a mildly bullish 4.83 out of 10. On-chain data reveals significant accumulations by major players, such as Bitmine.

For instance, Bitmine, linked to Tom Lee of Fundstrat, recently acquired another 20,000 ETH valued at US$41.08 million from FalconX’s hot wallet. This transaction, highlighted in on-chain tracking, fits a pattern of inflows. Just six days earlier, Bitmine received another 20,000 ETH worth US$46.04 million from the same source. Over the past two weeks, additional batches included 40,320 ETH at US$113.39 million, 38,400 ETH at US$107.99 million, 30,720 ETH at US$86.39 million, another 38,400 ETH at US$107.99 million, 28,800 ETH at US$80.99 million, 26,880 ETH at US$75.59 million, 30,720 ETH at US$86.39 million, 34,560 ETH at US$97.19 million, and 23,040 ETH at US$64.79 million. These moves signal structured buying by institutions, boosting short-term confidence.

Community reactions underscore this as smart money at work. Observers note the buys as strategic positioning rather than random trades. One commenter compared it to aggressive corporate strategies in crypto, while others highlighted the scale of the accumulation amid market fear. Ethereum’s positive whale activity provides a counterweight to broader caution.

From where I stand, these accumulations reveal an underlying belief in crypto’s long-term value. Institutions like Bitmine spot opportunities in dips, betting on future growth. This contrasts with retail hesitation, resulting in an uneven recovery. If more entities follow suit, it could spark broader buying, but isolated actions might not sustain momentum on their own.

The near-term outlook remains guarded. Two key elements will determine the path: Bitcoin’s push to reclaim and defend the US$73,000 resistance level, and the flow direction in US spot Bitcoin ETFs after recent net outflows. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 10, indicating extreme fear, which often precedes relief rallies when buying picks up. Holding above US$70,000 might drive the total cap toward US$2.5 trillion over time.

Without consistent spot demand, prices could revisit last week’s lows near US$60,000. Upcoming stock market data ties in here, as retail sales and CPI could sway Fed decisions, indirectly affecting crypto through risk sentiment. My take is that this moment offers a chance for stabilisation, but fragility persists. The 46 per cent drawdown scarred investors, and rebuilding trust takes time. If Bitcoin holds its ground, we might see a slow grind higher, fuelled by tech’s AI tailwinds and institutional dips.

In conclusion, today’s market action reflects cautious stabilisation across assets. Stocks rebounded on tech strength, easing AI concerns, while crypto paused its slide with help from Bitcoin support and selective buys. The interplay between traditional and digital markets grows clearer with that 89 per cent correlation. Institutional moves, like Bitmine’s ETH hauls, inject optimism, but the outlook hinges on key levels and data.

I see potential for a relief bounce if supports hold, and I warn against overconfidence. Extreme fear levels suggest upside if sentiment flips, but macro headwinds loom. Traders should watch Bitcoin’s US$65,000 to US$70,000 zone closely, as it will dictate whether this uptick endures or fades. Overall, markets catch their breath after tough times, setting up for pivotal days ahead.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-market-cap-hits-us2-4t-again-why-institutional-whales-are-buying-the-dip-20260210/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Fear and greed at 28: Why traders are fleeing crypto right now

Fear and greed at 28: Why traders are fleeing crypto right now
Most regional indices closed lower, weighed down by anxieties over US technology earnings and the looming announcement of President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair. While Japan’s Nikkei 225 managed to stay slightly in positive territory amid choppy trading, Hong Kong and mainland Chinese benchmarks retreated, ending what had otherwise been a strong monthly rally. The divergence in performance underscored the growing sensitivity of global markets to both domestic policy signals and external shocks.
At the heart of the day’s market dynamics lay two dominant narratives:
  • First, concerns mounted over whether the massive artificial intelligence investments made by US tech giants would translate into tangible returns. Mixed earnings reports from major firms failed to reassure investors, casting doubt on the sustainability of the AI-driven valuation surge that has powered equity markets in recent quarters.
  • Second, anticipation built around the imminent nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair. With interest rate policy hanging in the balance, traders braced for potential shifts in monetary direction under a new leadership aligned with the Trump administration’s economic priorities. These dual uncertainties created a risk-averse backdrop across Asia.
This aversion to risk extended beyond equities into currencies and commodities. The US dollar strengthened as a traditional safe haven, while gold, typically a refuge during geopolitical stress, unexpectedly declined. This unusual move signalled that capital was not rotating into traditional hedges but instead retreating broadly from speculative exposure. Notably, Indian markets bucked the regional trend. The Sensex closed at 82,566.37 and the Nifty at 25,418.90, lifted by domestic optimism ahead of the Union Budget. India’s relative insulation highlighted how localised fiscal expectations can temporarily override global headwinds.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp contraction, shedding 6.82 per cent in 24 hours to settle at a $2.78 trillion valuation. This decline did not stem from internal protocol failures or regulatory crackdowns but from a cascading geopolitical risk-off event. Specifically, President Trump’s explicit threat of military strikes against Iran triggered a broad flight from all assets perceived as risky.
In this environment, crypto behaved not as a decentralised hedge but as a correlated risk asset, moving in near lockstep with equities and commodities. The correlation between crypto and gold reached an unusually high 88 per cent, confirming that macro forces, not blockchain fundamentals, were driving price action.
The primary catalyst was clear. Escalating US-Iran tensions injected acute uncertainty into financial markets. Investors, fearing broader conflict and potential oil supply disruptions, reduced exposure across the board. Crypto, despite its narrative as a non-sovereign store of value, proved vulnerable to the same macro fears affecting traditional markets. This moment laid bare a critical reality. In times of acute geopolitical stress, crypto still trades as part of the risk spectrum rather than outside it.
Compounding the sell-off was a violent unwinding of leverage. Over US$363 million in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated within 24 hours, a 175 per cent increase from baseline levels. This forced selling created a negative feedback loop. Falling prices triggered more margin calls, which accelerated the decline further.
Market sentiment deteriorated rapidly, with the 

Fear and Greed Index plunging to 28, deep into fear territory. Funding rates turned negative, averaging -0.00215 per cent, indicating that short sellers now dominated the derivatives market and were effectively being paid to maintain bearish positions. Open interest stood at US$608 billion, but its stability remained precarious as longs continued to exit.
Looking ahead, the market faces a pivotal juncture. Technically, the US$2.79 trillion level serves as a crucial support pivot. Holding this zone could allow for stabilisation if geopolitical tensions ease. A decisive break below opens the path toward the yearly low of US$2.42 trillion, particularly if institutional demand continues to wane. Bitcoin ETF flows on January 30 will offer a telling signal. Sustained outflows would confirm that even large players are adopting a defensive stance, reinforcing downward pressure.
This episode underscores a recurring theme in crypto’s maturation. Its increasing integration into the global macro framework means it no longer operates in a vacuum. Instead, it responds to the same geopolitical tremors, monetary policy shifts, and risk sentiment swings that govern equities and commodities. The notion of crypto as a crisis hedge remains aspirational unless it can decouple during true black-swan events, a test it has yet to pass convincingly.
Moreover, the role of leverage cannot be overstated. The US$363 million liquidation wave reveals how fragile market structure can amplify external shocks. While decentralisation promises resilience, the reality is that centralised exchanges, derivative platforms, and leveraged traders create systemic vulnerabilities that mirror traditional finance. Until these structural imbalances are addressed, crypto will remain susceptible to cascading sell-offs driven by macro panic.
In conclusion, January 30, 2026, marked another chapter in crypto’s evolution from fringe experiment to integrated financial asset, one that shares the burdens and behaviours of the broader market. The path forward hinges not on code or consensus alone, but on the unpredictable currents of global politics and investor psychology.
Whether this moment becomes a temporary dip or the start of a deeper correction depends on de-escalation, institutional resolve, and the market’s ability to hold its psychological and technical supports. Until then, crypto remains tethered to the world it once sought to transcend.

 

Source: https://e27.co/fear-and-greed-at-28-why-traders-are-fleeing-crypto-right-now-20260130/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j