September 5th, 2025

The fed just changed everything: Why bitcoin could surge before October

The global financial landscape presents a complex tapestry of competing forces as we navigate the final quarter of 2025. While traditional markets grapple with evolving monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, digital assets continue demonstrating their unique behavioural patterns amid institutional adoption and technical repositioning.

This analysis examines Bitcoin’s current trajectory through the lens of market structure, institutional behaviour, and technical indicators, revealing a maturing asset class undergoing significant transformation. The interplay between liquidation dynamics, corporate treasury allocations, and technical support levels creates a fascinating narrative about cryptocurrency’s evolving role in global finance.

Bitcoin’s recent price action around the US$111,924 mark reflects a critical juncture where multiple market forces converge. The cryptocurrency’s consolidation between US$110,000 and US$120,000 during September 2025 appears directly linked to strategic accumulation activities by institutional miners positioning themselves for long-term growth. This price range represents more than just a technical consolidation zone; it serves as a psychological threshold where market participants weigh the potential for short-term volatility against longer-term structural trends.

The significance of this range becomes clearer when considering that Bitcoin might experience a maximum eight per cent decline to US$100,000 during September, though such a move would represent an outlier scenario rather than the baseline expectation. This potential downside buffer provides crucial context for understanding current market psychology and risk management approaches.

The liquidation dynamics surrounding Bitcoin’s current price level reveal sophisticated market mechanics at work. A critical support level at US$107,440 has emerged as particularly significant, representing the average acquisition cost for short-term holders controlling 8.82 per cent of Bitcoin’s total supply. This technical detail matters because it creates a natural defence zone where panic selling typically subsides as holders reach breakeven points.

Meanwhile, the price action near US$112,000 to US$115,000 has become a focal point for traders anticipating potential breakouts toward US$120,000. These technical levels aren’t arbitrary, they reflect real economic decisions made by market participants with substantial capital at stake. The market structure suggests that any sustained move above US$115,000 could trigger significant momentum as algorithmic trading systems and trend-following strategies activate.

Institutional involvement continues reshaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics in profound ways. September 2025 has witnessed notable whale movements indicating major accumulation activity across the cryptocurrency ecosystem. These large-scale transactions represent more than simple price manipulation attempts, they reflect fundamental shifts in how sophisticated investors view digital assets within their portfolio construction frameworks.

The accumulation patterns observed suggest that major players remain fundamentally optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory despite short-term volatility. This institutional confidence manifests not just in direct Bitcoin purchases but also through strategic positioning in related ecosystem tokens and infrastructure plays. The maturation of this institutional participation represents a crucial evolution from the retail-driven markets of previous cycles.

Technical analysis reveals additional layers of market structure worth examining. Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase, as identified by prominent market research firms, presents what many consider a critical juncture for investors seeking optimal entry points. This period of relative price stability allows market participants to reassess positioning while providing clarity about emerging trends.

The holding patterns of long-term investors suggest a potential resumption of the broader uptrend beginning in late September 2025. Such patterns matter because they reflect the behavior of investors with significant skin in the game, those who have historically demonstrated better timing and conviction than short-term traders. The technical indicators collectively suggest that while immediate price action may remain range-bound, the underlying trend continues developing positively.

The broader market context surrounding Bitcoin’s movement deserves careful consideration. Traditional financial markets exhibit mixed risk sentiment following weaker-than-expected US labour market data, creating an environment where alternative assets gain relative appeal. The Federal Reserve’s evolving stance on interest rates, with voting members advocating for multiple cuts in coming months, establishes a macroeconomic backdrop increasingly favourable for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

While Bitcoin maintains its unique market dynamics, these broader macroeconomic shifts create tailwinds that cannot be ignored. The cryptocurrency’s recent performance relative to traditional risk assets demonstrates its evolving role within the global financial ecosystem, not as a pure alternative but as a distinct asset class with its own fundamental drivers.

Market structure analysis reveals fascinating developments in Bitcoin’s maturation process. The forecasted average price of US$118,909.63 for September 2025 represents a potential 13.7 per cent return from current levels. This projection matters because it reflects institutional consensus rather than speculative fantasy.

More importantly, the technical setup suggests that Bitcoin’s current trading above US$111,000 creates a foundation for potential advancement toward US$120,000 if key resistance levels break decisively. These technical targets aren’t arbitrary, they emerge from the confluence of historical price action, order book dynamics, and institutional positioning. The market’s ability to defend these levels during periods of broader financial stress demonstrates growing resilience.

The liquidation landscape presents both risks and opportunities for sophisticated market participants. Analysts warn that certain price levels serve as critical support zones where significant bounce potential exists. These technical thresholds represent more than just chart patterns, they reflect actual concentrations of buy orders where institutional players have established strategic positions.

The market’s reaction to these levels provides valuable insight into underlying supply and demand dynamics. While short-term volatility may persist, the structural positioning suggests that any significant pullbacks could present strategic entry opportunities for long-term oriented investors.

I observe that Bitcoin’s current market behaviour reflects a fundamental shift in its evolutionary trajectory. No longer primarily driven by retail speculation, the asset increasingly demonstrates characteristics of institutional ownership patterns seen in more mature markets. The accumulation activity by corporate entities and sophisticated investors creates structural scarcity that differs fundamentally from previous market cycles.

While technical levels provide useful reference points, the underlying shift in market composition represents the most significant development. The convergence of technical support, institutional demand, and favourable macroeconomic conditions creates a compelling narrative about Bitcoin’s evolving role in global finance.

Looking ahead, several key factors warrant close monitoring. The ability of Bitcoin to maintain positions above critical support levels will determine near-term trajectory, while institutional accumulation patterns may provide leading indicators of longer-term direction. The interplay between traditional market volatility and cryptocurrency performance will continue evolving as digital assets gain broader acceptance.

Most importantly, the market’s reaction to potential macroeconomic surprises will test Bitcoin’s status as both a risk asset and potential store of value. The coming weeks may prove decisive in determining whether current consolidation transitions into the next major upward move.

The maturation of Bitcoin’s market structure represents one of the most significant developments in modern financial history. What began as a niche technological experiment has evolved into a legitimate asset class with sophisticated market participants, established technical patterns, and meaningful institutional adoption. While challenges remain, the current market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin continues progressing along its path toward broader financial integration.

The September 2025 price action may ultimately be remembered as a critical consolidation phase preceding the next major growth phase in cryptocurrency’s evolution. As market participants navigate these complex dynamics, maintaining perspective about both technical realities and fundamental developments remains essential for understanding this rapidly evolving asset class.

Source: https://e27.co/the-fed-just-changed-everything-why-bitcoin-could-surge-before-october-20250904/

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 17th, 2025

The HR reality check: Why blockchain CVs are permanent but not always true

Picture this: you’re reviewing a resume that lists an impressive Harvard MBA and five years leading engineering teams at a major tech company. You run the standard background check, and everything appears verified.

But what if that verification system itself is flawed? Blockchain-powered CV verification promises unchangeable records where credentials can’t be faked. This sounds revolutionary until you realise a critical flaw.

Blockchain doesn’t verify truth-only permanence. If false information enters the system initially, it becomes an unchangeable digital monument to deception. This creates what I call the Immutable Lie paradox.

We haven’t solved the trust problem; we’ve simply moved it upstream. Now, instead of questioning the candidate, we must question every institution feeding data into the blockchain.

When immutability protects lies: What happens next?

Consider how this plays out in reality. Traditional background checks already struggle with fraudulent credentials, but blockchain makes errors permanent. When a university registrar inputs data, whether accidentally or intentionally, the system records it as the absolute truth.

I recently examined a case where a candidate presented credentials from a university later found to be a diploma mill. The blockchain system had verified these credentials because the institution’s digital signature was valid at the time of entry.

The technology worked exactly as designed, yet it certified a complete fabrication. This isn’t progress. It’s digital entrapment where institutions become unwitting accomplices to fraud.

Reputation staking as an accountability mechanism

The solution requires real accountability. Decentralised reputation staking offers a practical fix. Universities and employers would lock cryptocurrency assets as collateral when submitting credentials.

If fraud is later proven through independent verification, the staked assets face automatic penalties. This creates tangible consequences for inaccurate reporting. Suddenly, institutions have financial skin in the game, transforming verification from a box-ticking exercise into a shared responsibility.

Honest reporting becomes economically advantageous while fraud carries real costs. This approach doesn’t eliminate human error but aligns incentives with truthfulness in a way no bureaucratic process ever could.

Beyond degrees: The shadow reputation economy

Now, let’s address the elephant in the room: traditional systems ignore how most people actually build careers. We focus obsessively on formal degrees and corporate titles while ignoring freelance projects, open-source contributions and self-taught skills that define modern professional growth.

Blockchain could create what I call a shadow reputation economy, where real work validates expertise. Imagine your GitHub contributions automatically generating verifiable proof of coding ability.

Picture clients issuing micro-endorsements as digital tokens after you complete freelance work. These small validations accumulate into a rich professional profile built through actual contributions rather than institutional approval.

This isn’t theoretical. Research shows blockchain can facilitate learning recognition beyond traditional academic boundaries. Why limit verification to what employers approve when our most valuable skills often emerge from informal work?

The pitfalls of biometric verification

The biometric verification trend alarms me most. Some platforms now require facial recognition via smartphone selfies to match your identity with blockchain credentials. This reduces professional identity to a biometric snapshot while ignoring career evolution.

Your value isn’t in your facial structure but in your growth your pivots and the skills you’ve developed during those so-called career gaps. I call this identity theater. It performs verification through superficial checks while neglecting substance. Instead of static documents or biometric scans blockchain should verify actual work. A developer’s proven contributions to major projects a designer’s portfolio hashed onto the chain because these demonstrate real capability far better than any degree certificate. The education sector has repeatedly failed at basic credential management so why trust it to define our entire professional essence through facial recognition?

Balancing privacy and verification

Privacy concerns present another tightrope walk. Blockchain’s transparency could expose sensitive career details like unemployment periods or frequent job changes creating new discrimination avenues.

An employer seeing your six-month gap might assume the worst when you were actually caring for family or recovering from burnout. Zero-knowledge proofs offer an elegant solution. They let you prove you meet specific criteria like five years in fintech without revealing employers or dates.

It’s verification without exposure, giving candidates control over their narrative while satisfying employer requirements. Systems designed with a distributed architecture already demonstrate how to maintain verification integrity without compromising privacy. Employers get confirmation of qualifications, and candidates avoid judgment based on incomplete career histories.

Why blockchain mirrors flaws rather than fixing them

What becomes clear after deep research is that blockchain CV systems mirror our existing societal flaws rather than fixing them. Engineering fields have seen structural failures due to hiring underqualified individuals. Blockchain won’t prevent this if the verification process remains flawed.

The technology itself is neutral; implementation determines its value. We need systems resilient against attacks that maintain functionality even when components fail, but we also need humility about technology’s limits. No blockchain can compensate for lazy hiring practices or institutional corruption.

Making blockchain work for people’s strategy: Shifts to consider

The path forward requires four essential shifts. First, we must abandon the fantasy that blockchain automatically equals trustworthiness. Second, we should implement decentralised reputation staking to hold institutions accountable. Third, we must recognise informal work as legitimate career building. Fourth, we need privacy-preserving verification that respects candidate narratives.

The most transformative possibility isn’t a perfect record of our past. It’s a living profile built through actual contributions. Imagine your professional reputation growing organically from verified work, open-source contributions, client testimonials, and project outcomes.

This isn’t just better verification, it’s recognition of how careers actually develop in the real world. Blockchain’s decentralised nature provides resilience against single points of failure, but only if we design it with human complexity in mind.

Design systems that value real contributions

Technology should serve people, not force us into narrower verification boxes. Blockchain CV systems must honour the messy reality of career growth rather than demanding conformity to outdated institutional models. The real credential isn’t on the chain. It’s in what you’ve built, who you’ve helped and how you’ve evolved. Any system losing sight of this fundamental truth fails its most important test.

Consider the developer who taught themselves to code while working in retail, building open-source tools that gained community recognition. Traditional systems would overlook this person, but a shadow reputation economy would highlight their proven skills.

Or the designer who pivoted careers after raising children, whose portfolio demonstrates current expertise despite employment gaps. Privacy-preserving verification would let them prove qualifications without explaining personal history. These aren’t hypotheticals. They’re real people whose value gets lost in current systems.

The institutions feeding blockchain systems must face real consequences for inaccurate data. When a university carelessly verifies degrees or an employer rubber-stamps promotions, they damage the entire ecosystem. Reputation staking creates necessary accountability, no more cost-free verification errors. This isn’t about punishment but shared responsibility for maintaining system integrity.

Crossroads for blockchain CVs: Choosing between control and genuine recognition

We’re at a crossroads. Blockchain CV technology could become another tool for institutional gatekeeping, or it could democratise professional recognition. The difference lies in whether we prioritise human complexity over bureaucratic convenience. Will we reduce careers to biometric snapshots and static credentials or will we build systems that recognise growth, informal learning and real-world contributions?

The answer matters because careers aren’t linear paths but evolving journeys. Your professional worth isn’t defined by a single institution’s stamp but by the cumulative impact of your work. Blockchain gives us the tools to verify this truth if we have the courage to move beyond traditional verification models.

What excites me most isn’t the technology itself but its potential to recognise professional value wherever it exists. A teacher developing educational apps in their spare time, a nurse creating patient resources, a marketer building community initiatives- these contributions matter. Blockchain could finally give them verifiable recognition beyond traditional employment structures.

This requires rejecting the notion that professional value must fit institutional moulds. The shadow reputation economy isn’t a secondary option. It’s the future of work recognition. As freelance and project-based work grows, our verification systems must evolve beyond employer-centric models. Blockchain provides the infrastructure but we must design it with human dignity at its core.

Privacy remains non-negotiable, even in the age of advanced verification. Candidates should never have to sacrifice narrative control simply to prove their credentials. Technologies like zero-knowledge proofs show that it’s possible to meet verification requirements without exposing unnecessary personal details. This way, employers can confirm qualifications with confidence, while candidates are protected from judgments based on incomplete or irrelevant career histories. Achieving this balance isn’t just desirable; it’s essential for truly ethical verification.

No technology can replace human judgment

The Immutable Lie paradox teaches us a crucial lesson: no technology can replace human judgment. Blockchain verifies consistency, not truth. Our responsibility is building systems where institutions face real consequences for inaccurate data while candidates gain control over their professional narratives.

We stand at the beginning of this transformation. The choices we make now will determine whether blockchain CV systems become tools of exclusion or liberation. Will they reinforce institutional gatekeeping or recognise value wherever it exists? The technology offers possibilities, but humans must provide the vision.

Let’s build verification that honours career complexity that sees the teacher developing apps after school, the nurse creating patient resources, the developer contributing to open source while working retail. These stories define real professional growth.

Blockchain gives us tools to verify them authentically. The revolution isn’t in technology but in recognising professional value beyond traditional boundaries. That’s the future worth building. One where your worth is measured by what you create, not just who approved your credentials.

Summary table: Key findings and challenges

Aspect	Finding	Challenges
Immutable Lie Paradox	Blockchain ensures immutability but not initial truthfulness.	Detecting fraud, implementing reputation staking, and trust in institutions.
Shadow Reputation Economy	Enable peers’ endorsements as NFTs for informal work.	Ensuring endorser credibility, preventing fake endorsements.
Biometric Overreach	Risks of reducing identity to biometrics, privacy concerns.	Data breaches, public blockchain exposure, and balancing security and privacy.

About author

Anndy Lian is a well-rounded business strategist in Asia. He has provided advisory services across a variety of industries for local, international, publicly listed companies and governments. He is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur, book author, investor, board member and keynote speaker.

Source: https://hrsea.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/hrtech/blockchain-cvs-the-immutable-lie-paradox-and-job-verification-challenges/123254143

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

August 12th, 2025

Why tonight’s inflation report could shake global markets to their core

July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is a critical indicator of inflationary trends that could shape monetary policy and asset prices worldwide. The muted global risk sentiment reflects a cautious stance among investors, driven by uncertainty surrounding the inflation report and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s executive order extending the China tariff deadline by 90 days into early November has provided a temporary reprieve, lifting sentiment in Asian markets. However, Wall Street’s cautious retreat from near-record highs, coupled with developments in cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin, underscores the intricate interplay of macroeconomic data, trade policies, and speculative assets in shaping market dynamics.

The US July CPI report, due tonight, is a focal point for markets, as it will provide insight into whether inflationary pressures are intensifying or moderating. Economists project a year-over-year headline inflation increase of 2.8 per cent, up 10 basis points from June’s 2.7 per cent, with core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, expected to rise 0.3 per cent month-over-month and 3.0 per cent annually. These figures are critical because they could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates at its September meeting.

A softer-than-expected CPI reading could bolster expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut, signalling that the Fed views inflation as manageable and is prioritising economic growth amid signs of a slowing labour market. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure could dampen hopes for immediate rate cuts, as persistent inflation driven by tariffs and supply chain pressures might force the Fed to maintain its current stance. This uncertainty has kept investors on edge, contributing to a cautious tone in global markets.

The recent executive order from President Trump extending the China tariff deadline by 90 days has introduced a layer of optimism, particularly in Asian equity markets. The decision, while light on specifics, signals a temporary de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, which have been a significant driver of market volatility in 2025.

Asian equity indices opened higher this morning, reflecting relief that the immediate threat of escalated tariffs has been deferred. This extension aligns with earlier trade agreements, such as the May 12 deal that paused additional tariffs and set US tariffs on Chinese imports at 30 per cent, while China lowered its tariffs on US goods to 10 per cent.

However, the fluid nature of trade policy under the Trump administration keeps markets wary. A social media post from the White House on May 30 suggested that China may have violated the agreement, raising the specter of renewed tariffs. Such unpredictability underscores the fragility of the current truce and its potential to disrupt global trade and inflation dynamics.

Wall Street’s reaction to these developments has been subdued, with major indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones retreating slightly from near-record levels, declining by 0.3 per cent, 0.3 per cent, and 0.5 per cent, respectively. This pullback reflects investor caution ahead of the CPI data, as a higher-than-expected inflation reading could pressure risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.

US treasury futures have shown limited volatility, with yields remaining rangebound, indicating that bond markets are also in a wait-and-see mode. The US Dollar Index, up 0.3 per cent, has benefited from this cautious sentiment, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. Gold, however, retreated 1.4 per cent to US$3,351 per ounce after Trump clarified that bullion imports would be exempt from tariffs, reducing its appeal as a hedge against trade-related inflation.

In the commodity markets, Brent crude oil edged up 0.1 per cent, consolidating at higher levels despite a lack of significant news flow. The oil market’s stability reflects a balance between demand concerns and supply dynamics, with OPEC+ reportedly considering a larger-than-expected production hike.

This development could cap upside potential for oil prices, particularly if trade tensions resurface and dampen global demand. The interplay between tariffs, inflation, and commodity prices remains a critical factor for investors, as higher input costs could further fuel inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy calculus.

The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, has emerged as a bright spot amid the broader caution. Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin in year-to-date gains, rising 29 per cent to US$4,311.58 compared to Bitcoin’s 28 per cent increase to US$120,020.83. Ethereum’s surge past the US$4,000 mark, a level not seen since December 2024, reflects growing institutional demand and inflows into US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

These funds have attracted US$5 billion in net inflows over the past month, with total assets under management reaching US$20 billion since their launch in July 2024. Digital asset treasury companies (DATs) are also stockpiling ETH, emulating the strategy pioneered by Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor. This institutional buying has bolstered Ethereum’s price, despite a 0.9 per cent daily decline, and highlights the increasing integration of cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance.

Bitcoin, while slightly trailing Ethereum in year-to-date performance, has also seen significant gains, climbing above US$122,000 over the weekend. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation has surged to US$4.1 trillion, reflecting renewed investor enthusiasm. The correlation between Bitcoin and US equity markets has strengthened since mid-July, suggesting that cryptocurrencies are increasingly viewed as risk assets sensitive to macroeconomic developments.

Options market activity underscores this dynamic, with Bitcoin options open interest at US$43 billion and Ethereum at US$13.9 billion, approaching record highs. Traders are positioning for volatility around the CPI release, with elevated open interest indicating both hedging against downside risks and bets on further upside momentum. Short-call covering in Bitcoin options suggests reduced bearish sentiment, but implied volatility is expected to remain high until the CPI data provides clarity.

From my perspective, the current market environment reflects a delicate balance between optimism and caution. The extension of the China tariff deadline offers a reprieve, but the lack of clarity on trade policy keeps investors on edge. The CPI report will be a pivotal moment, as it could either reinforce expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve or signal persistent inflationary pressures that delay rate cuts.

The resilience of cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin, driven by institutional adoption and ETF inflows, highlights their growing role as alternative assets in a volatile macroeconomic landscape. However, their correlation with equities suggests that a negative surprise in the CPI data could trigger a broader sell-off in risk assets.

The Federal Reserve faces a challenging path. Two Fed governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, dissented in the last meeting, advocating for rate cuts due to signs of a slowing labor market and their belief that tariff-driven inflation may be transitory.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasised a data-dependent approach, and a higher-than-expected CPI reading could strengthen the case for holding rates steady. The labor market, while still robust, shows signs of softening, with recent revisions slashing job growth figures for May and June to 19,000 and 14,000, respectively. These figures, the lowest two-month job growth since April 2021, add pressure on the Fed to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

Asian markets’ positive response to the tariff deadline extension underscores the global sensitivity to US trade policy. However, the risk of retaliation from trading partners, such as the EU’s potential €95 billion countermeasures, looms large.

Tariffs have already driven price increases in categories like furniture, auto parts, and electronics, contributing to inflation expectations of 4.4 per cent in the coming year, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. Despite these concerns, consumer sentiment improved in July to 61.8, reflecting resilience in the face of tariff threats and robust retail sales data.

In conclusion, the US CPI report serves as a critical catalyst. The interplay of trade policy, inflation, and monetary policy will shape market sentiment in the coming weeks. Cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum, are carving out a significant role in this environment, driven by institutional demand and speculative interest.

However, the risks of higher inflation and renewed trade tensions could disrupt the current rally in risk assets. Investors should remain vigilant, balancing opportunities in equities and digital assets with the need to hedge against potential volatility. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether the current cautious optimism gives way to renewed confidence or a retreat into risk-off sentiment.

Source: https://e27.co/why-tonights-inflation-report-could-shake-global-markets-to-their-core-20250812/