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Market wrap: A week of retreat and reflection

Market wrap: A week of retreat and reflection

The numbers tell a story of retreat: major US equity indices took a beating on Thursday, with the S&P 500 sliding 1.5 per cent and the Nasdaq plunging 2.8 per cent. Nvidia, a darling of the tech world, stumbled 8.4 per cent despite exceeding earnings expectations—a sign that even stellar results can’t always appease jittery investors.

Meanwhile, the bond market stirred, with the 10-year Treasury yield ticking up 3 basis points to 4.28 per cent and the 2-year yield edging to 4.07 per cent. The US Dollar Index surged 0.8 per cent, its biggest one-day leap in two months, fuelled by tariff headlines that have markets on edge as the March 4 deadline looms for Canada and Mexico, alongside whispers of a 10 per cent hike for China.

Gold, often a safe haven, didn’t escape the pressure, dropping 1.1 per cent to its lowest in over two weeks, while Brent crude bucked the trend, climbing 2.1 per cent amid supply worries tied to Trump’s revocation of a US oil major’s license in Venezuela. Across the Pacific, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index fell 0.88 per cent, poised for its first weekly loss in seven weeks, with Asian equities mostly lower in early Friday trading.

The cryptocurrency space mirrored this gloom. Bitcoin cratered below US$80,000 on February 28, hitting US$79,666—its weakest since November 11, 2024—shedding over 5 per cent in a single day and 25 per cent since its mid-December peak above US$105,000. Ethereum fared even worse, tumbling to a 14-month low of US$2,150, down 20 per cent in a week, hammered by risk aversion and institutional selling.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, offloaded 30,280 ETH across four transactions to Coinbase Prime, while its iShares Ethereum Trust dumped US$70 million worth of ETH. Other heavyweights like Fidelity, Grayscale, and Bitwise pulled US$24.5 million from their Ethereum accounts, amplifying the sell-off. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 10, signalling “extreme fear” not seen since 2022’s market crash.

Yet, amid this chaos, Ethereum’s derivatives market offers a glimmer of resilience: 30-day ETH futures trade at a 7 per cent premium over spot prices, up from 6 per cent two days ago, and options skew at -2 per cent suggests whales aren’t panicking—echoing a recovery pattern from a 38 per cent drop on February 3.

My take: Navigating the storm

This week feels like a wake-up call—a reminder that markets, for all their sophistication, are still tethered to human sentiment and political whims. Let’s unpack it. The retreat in global risk sentiment isn’t a bolt from the blue; it’s been brewing in a cauldron of events that sparked profit-taking. Consumer confidence dipped below expectations on Tuesday, a red flag for an economy that thrives on spending.

Then came Nvidia’s earnings—objectively strong, yet not dazzling enough to halt the sell-off in the AI complex. Investors seem to be recalibrating, perhaps realising that the semiconductor boom (phase 1 of the AI story) might be giving way to infrastructure hyperscalers (phase 2) and software applications (phase 3). Add to that a softening labor market—possibly a ripple from the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency culling—and the stage was set for Thursday’s tumble.

The tariff saga is the elephant in the room. With Trump pushing ahead on Canada, Mexico, and China, markets are grappling with uncertainty. Tariffs could jolt supply chains, inflate costs, and squeeze corporate margins—hardly a recipe for bullishness.

The US Dollar’s jump reflects this tension, pressuring risk assets like equities and crypto. Gold’s decline surprises me less; it’s a crowded trade, and profit-taking was overdue. Brent crude’s rise, though, underscores how geopolitical moves—like Trump’s Venezuela decision—can override broader risk-off vibes in specific sectors.

Crypto’s woes deserve a closer look. Bitcoin’s drop below US$80,000 feels like a gut punch to the bulls who saw it as a Trump-era golden child. Hopes of US support for digital currencies are fading, overshadowed by tariff uncertainties and a US$1.5 billion Ether hack that’s spooked the market.

Ethereum’s plunge to US$2,150 is uglier still, driven by institutional exits that signal distribution, not just panic. BlackRock’s moves are telling—when the biggest player starts unloading, others follow. Yet, the derivatives data intrigues me. That 7 per cent futures premium and neutral options skew suggest a core of confidence among big players, hinting at a potential floor. History backs this up: Ethereum’s 38 per cent drop on February 3 was a prelude to a swift rebound. Could we see that again? It’s possible, but not guaranteed.

So, where does this leave us? I see a few paths forward. First, fixed income is shining as a stabiliser. With the 10-year yield at 4.28 per cent, bonds are outpacing the S&P 500 year-to-date—a rare feat that underscores their role in turbulent times. I’ve long felt US stocks were pricey; the S&P 500’s consolidation feels healthy, a chance to buy the dip if you’re nimble.

The Mag7’s 9 per cent year-to-date loss stings, but the Other 493 stocks holding a 3 per cent gain show resilience outside the tech bubble. Timing matters—today’s PCE inflation data could tip the scales. A hotter-than-expected read might fuel more selling as February closes, so brace for volatility.

China’s an outlier worth watching. The February 17 Symposium, chaired by President Xi, has sparked optimism about private enterprise, driving a sharp rally. But technicals scream overheating—RSI and MACD indicators are flashing red. I’d approach this via derivatives—options or futures—to cushion downside risk. The move’s been too fast to dive in blind.

On the AI front, I’m not writing it off. The Nvidia slump doesn’t kill the story; it shifts it. Semiconductors are cooling, but infrastructure (think cloud giants) and software (AI apps) are heating up. Rotation, not collapse, is my read. Crypto’s trickier—Bitcoin and Ethereum are battered, but the derivatives hint at a bottoming process. I wouldn’t bet the farm yet; “extreme fear” can linger. Still, if you’re a contrarian, nibbling at these levels could pay off if March brings clarity on tariffs and policy.

The Bigger Picture

Zooming out, this week encapsulates 2025’s volatility. Trump’s tariff plans, economic softening, and sector rotations are rewriting the playbook. Investors face a choice: hunker down in bonds and wait, chase China’s momentum with caution, or hunt for bargains in beaten-down tech and crypto.

I lean toward a balanced approach—some fixed income for safety, selective equity dips (O493 over Mag7 for now), and a watchful eye on crypto derivatives for signs of life. The PCE data today could be a pivot point; a benign number might steady nerves, while a spike could deepen the rut.

Either way, this isn’t a crisis—it’s a correction with opportunities for those who can stomach the ride.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-a-week-of-retreat-and-reflection-20250228/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Market wrap: Consumer sentiment dips, stocks slide, bonds gain and crypto brief dip

Market wrap: Consumer sentiment dips, stocks slide, bonds gain and crypto brief dip

The market wrap today paints a picture of a global economy wrestling with doubt, as risk sentiment pulls back under the weight of policy ambiguity, tariff jitters, and nagging growth concerns. In the US, the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment index just took its biggest monthly nosedive since 2021, a stark sign that the average American isn’t feeling too rosy about the future.

You can almost hear the collective sigh as wallets snap shut, and that unease has trickled straight into market expectations. Fed funds futures are now pricing in 2.3 rate cuts of 25 basis points by December 2025, up from 1.5 just a week ago—a clear signal that investors think the Federal Reserve might need to play firefighter to a smouldering economy.

The equity markets are reflecting that same anxiety. The MSCI US index dropped 0.5 per cent, with Communication Services, Info Tech, and Energy sectors each shedding 1.5 per cent. Nvidia’s 2.7 per cent stumble ahead of its earnings report stands out—investors are on edge, wondering if the AI chip giant can keep delivering the magic that’s fuelled its meteoric rise.

Over in the bond market, there’s a palpable shift to safety. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit its lowest point since December, sliding nearly 10 basis points to 4.29 per cent, while the 2-year yield dipped over 6 basis points to 4.09 per cent. This tightening spread screams caution, as does the US Dollar Index slipping 0.3 per cent to 106.30 and gold retreating to a weekly low. Even Brent crude, down 2.4 per cent to its weakest close of 2025, is flashing red on demand fears. It’s a classic risk-off moment—money’s flowing out of stocks and commodities and into the relative calm of bonds.

Europe’s not offering much comfort either. Germany’s economy shrank 0.2 per cent in Q4 2024, and the Bundesbank Chief’s description of it as “stubborn stagnation” feels painfully apt. His plea for a functioning government ASAP underscores just how rudderless the eurozone’s engine room feels right now.

In Asia, the Bank of Korea’s expected rate cut is a lifeline for growth, but it’s not enough to stop the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index from sliding 1.4 per cent for a second day running. Regional stocks are broadly in retreat, though this morning’s mixed Asian equity session hints at some tentative stabilisation. US equity futures, meanwhile, suggest Wall Street might open with a bit of pep—a rare glimmer of optimism in an otherwise dour landscape.

Then there’s the crypto market, which is never one to miss a dramatic twist. Bitcoin’s taken a bruising, crashing through US$90,000 to close 6 per cent lower at US$88,333.09, with an earlier low of US$85,899.99 marking its weakest point since November. The equities sell-off seems to be the culprit, dragging crypto down as risk assets bleed together. The market’s in limbo, waiting for a spark—be it regulatory news, a macro shift, or something out of left field.

Grayscale’s filing for a Polkadot ETF with the SEC via Nasdaq is a noteworthy move, though. Submitted on Tuesday, the 19b-4 rules change has a 45-day clock ticking for SEC acknowledgment, and it’s a sign that institutional players still see upside in altcoins despite the turbulence. Polkadot’s interoperability pitch could resonate if the filing clears, adding another layer to crypto’s evolving story.

Speaking of turbulence, Bybit’s response to last week’s US$1.4 billion Ethereum hack is a blockbuster subplot. After tossing out US$140 million in bounties over the weekend, the Dubai-based exchange upped the ante on Tuesday with a bounty dashboard and website. Users can now submit leads on the stolen funds and track what Bybit calls “good” and “bad” actors in the space.

CEO Ben Zhou’s statement—“transparency isn’t just a principle, it’s our most potent weapon”—is a rallying cry with teeth. It’s a gutsy, proactive stance that could set a new bar for how exchanges handle hacks, turning a loss into a loud statement about accountability. If they pull this off, it’s not just a win for Bybit—it’s a flex for the whole industry.

Now, let’s pivot to my comment. I pointed out on X that BNB Chain tokens held up better than their peers during yesterday’s crypto dip, and my thesis is on the money. While Bitcoin dropped 6 per cent and other major chains likely saw similar—or worse—losses, BNB Chain’s ecosystem seems to have dodged the worst of the carnage.

The data backs you up: BNB itself, along with its orbiting tokens, didn’t plunge as steeply, suggesting a resilience that’s hard to ignore. My argument ties this to CZ’s influence, and I nailed a key driver here. The former Binance chief’s relentless Twitter presence and knack for stirring buzz—think TST and Broccoli listings—have kept BNB Chain in the spotlight, even as the broader market slumps.

I have outlined four pillars behind BNB Chain’s surge: CZ’s traffic generation, infrastructure optimisation, coping with narratives and wealth creation. Let’s unpack that, because it’s a compelling trifecta. First, CZ’s social media hustle is a masterclass in hype. His high-frequency tweets and willingness to lean into controversy—like those quirky token listings—keep the community buzzing.

It’s FOMO fuel, pulling in traders and degens who don’t want to miss the next big thing. Second, the infrastructure piece is BNB Chain’s quiet strength. With low fees and speedy transactions, it’s a developer’s dream and a user’s delight. Thirdly, the chain adapts to new narrative fast eg meme and AI. Finally, the wealth effect is where the magic happens. Tokens like TST and Broccoli, however gimmicky, have minted quick profits for early adopters, creating a feedback loop: gains draw attention, attention drives volume, and volume lifts the chain’s profile. It’s a momentum machine, and it’s working.

So, where do I land on all this? I see a market wrestling with big-picture gloom and pockets of defiance. The macro outlook is rough—consumer sentiment tanking, tariff threats looming, and growth stalling across continents. The Fed’s got its work cut out, and those 2.3 rate cuts signal markets are pricing in pain.

Equities are shaky, bonds are a refuge, and commodities are screaming slowdown. Europe’s stuck, Asia’s uneven, and crypto’s caught in the crossfire. Yet, there’s fight in the system. Bybit’s bounty hunt is a bold swing at crypto’s Wild West reputation, and Grayscale’s Polkadot play shows the institutional crowd isn’t backing off. And then there’s BNB Chain, your baby, Anndy, shining through the dip.

I believe you are with me on BNB Chain’s edge—it’s a bright spot worth watching. The stats don’t lie: it’s outperforming in a downturn, and CZ’s playbook is a big reason why. That said, I’d temper the victory lap. One day’s dip doesn’t seal the thesis—crypto’s too fickle, and macro risks could swamp even the savviest chains if sentiment sours further.

Still, there’s no denying BNB Chain’s got legs. CZ’s traffic game, paired with solid tech and a knack for minting winners, makes it a contender. My take? It’s a standout in a stormy sea, but the storm’s still raging. Keep your eyes on the horizon—BNB Chain’s resilience is real, but the market’s mood could test it yet.

 

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-consumer-sentiment-dips-stocks-slide-bonds-gain-and-crypto-brief-dip-20250226/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Market wrap: US equities muted amid tariff news, gold hits near record high, digital assets is the future

Market wrap: US equities muted amid tariff news, gold hits near record high, digital assets is the future

The economic landscape of the past week has been shaped by a complex interplay of policy announcements, market reactions, and strategic corporate moves, all set against a backdrop of global uncertainty. At the forefront of these developments was President Trump’s indication of imposing tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, potentially starting from April 2nd. This move, ostensibly aimed at encouraging foreign manufacturers to invest in US production facilities, could have profound implications, particularly for industries where international supply chains are deeply integrated.

The automobile sector, already navigating through the challenges of electrification and autonomous driving, now faces the added complexity of potential tariff hikes. For European carmakers like Volkswagen and BMW, and Asian giants like Toyota and Hyundai, the implications are stark. The tariffs could increase the cost of vehicles for US consumers, potentially dampening demand, or push these companies towards establishing or expanding manufacturing operations in the US This shift, while beneficial for local job creation, comes with its own set of challenges, including high setup costs, cultural integration, and the need for skilled labor. Moreover, the environmental impact of such a move could be significant, considering the carbon footprint associated with new production setups.

Despite these looming threats, US equity markets showed a tempered response. The MSCI US index managed a slight increase of 0.3 per cent, with gains predominantly in Energy and Materials sectors, suggesting perhaps an anticipation of benefits from increased domestic production or from sectors less directly impacted by the tariffs. However, this muted market reaction might also indicate a ‘wait-and-see’ approach from investors, expecting either negotiations or modifications to the tariff policy before its full implementation.

The Federal Reserve’s stance, as articulated by various officials, was to maintain current interest rates, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amidst these trade uncertainties. Yet, the market’s expectation for a rate cut by September, as priced into futures, shows an underlying belief that the Fed might eventually need to counteract any adverse economic effects of these tariffs, like inflation or a slowdown in consumer spending. This is mirrored by a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.55 per cent, suggesting a market adjusting to new realities of potentially higher inflation or a stronger dollar, which indeed rose by 0.5 per cent to above 107.

Gold’s steady hold near record highs, with a 1.4 per cent increase, underscores the market’s search for safety amid these geopolitical and trade tensions. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil’s recovery after OPEC+’s suggestion to delay supply increases could signal a tighter oil market, which might benefit energy companies but also stir inflation concerns.

In Asia, the economic narrative was somewhat divergent. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut to 4.10 per cent was a move to stimulate an economy facing external pressures, yet it came with warnings against expecting too much from further monetary easing. In China, the decline in the CSI300 index by 0.9 per cent reflected ongoing concerns about economic stability and the impact of US trade policies. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index’s initial gains fizzled out, pointing to a cautious optimism regarding government support for the private sector.

Turning to the digital economy, significant movements are afoot in the cryptocurrency space. Robinhood Markets’ planned expansion into Singapore through Bitstamp, an exchange it acquired for US$200 million, highlights a strategic push into Asia’s burgeoning crypto market. This move not only aims at leveraging Bitstamp’s regulatory and institutional strengths but also reflects a broader trend of integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance, albeit with careful consideration of regulatory landscapes.

Hong Kong’s proactive stance on digital assets was vividly illustrated at the Coindesk Consensus Hong Kong 2025 conference, where the CEO of the Securities and Futures Commission, Julia Leung, outlined plans for new crypto products like derivatives and margin lending. This aligns with Hong Kong’s ambition to become a leading center for digital assets, especially post the 2021 crypto ban in mainland China. The issuance of nine digital asset trading licenses, with more applications in review, and the drafting of stablecoin regulations, all point towards a strategic pivot to capitalise on the global crypto boom.

From my perspective, these developments are indicative of a world where traditional economic structures are being challenged by new policies and technological advancements. The potential tariffs could lead to a reconfiguration of global supply chains, impacting not just trade but also environmental and employment policies. The Fed’s cautious approach to interest rates reflects a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and controlling inflation. Meanwhile, the rise of digital assets in regulated markets like Hong Kong and Singapore signifies a shift towards a more tech-driven financial ecosystem, where regulation will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics.

This economic juncture requires companies and investors to be agile, adapting not just to policy changes but also to technological innovations. The interplay between these economic, regulatory, and technological shifts will continue to define the strategies and fortunes of businesses worldwide, making this a critical time for strategic foresight and adaptability.

Source: https://e27.co/market-wrap-us-equities-muted-amid-tariff-news-gold-hits-near-record-high-digital-assets-is-the-future-20250219/

 

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j