Pakistani workers in Gulf turn to stablecoins for remittances amid Iran war concerns: report

Pakistani workers in Gulf turn to stablecoins for remittances amid Iran war concerns: report

Migrant workers from South Asia employed in Gulf countries are increasingly turning to stablecoins as an alternative channel for sending money home amid concerns that the US-Iran conflict could disrupt traditional remittance systems linked to the dollar, according to a report by SCMP.

Industry analysts said fears surrounding sanctions, financial restrictions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed some workers toward digital tokens such as USDT and USDC for cross-border transfers.

Millions of workers from Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka rely on Gulf economies for employment, while remittances remain a major source of foreign exchange for several South Asian countries.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, workers’ remittances stood at $3.54 billion in April 2026, showing an 11% increase compared to the same month last year, although inflows declined 8% on a monthly basis from March. During the first 10 months of FY26, total remittances reached $33.86 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year.

Analysts, however, pointed to growing dependence on Gulf economies for remittance inflows. Data showed that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries collectively accounted for more than $18 billion during 10MFY26, representing more than half of Pakistan’s total remittance receipts.

Saudi Arabia remained the largest source with inflows of $7.93 billion, followed by the UAE at $7 billion.

Experts warned that the concentration of remittances from a single region leaves Pakistan vulnerable to external disruptions, particularly as geopolitical tensions in the Gulf continue to rise amid fears of wider regional conflict.

According to the Global Settlement Network, remittances account for between 3% and 5% of GDP in multiple emerging economies, while the share reaches around 10% in Nepal.

Singapore-based blockchain adviser Anndy Lian said there had been a gradual shift among South Asian migrant workers toward stablecoins following the Iran conflict, although traditional banking and licensed exchange operators still dominate remittance flows.

Lian estimated that stablecoins currently account for around 3% to 4% of remittances sent by Gulf-based workers.

He said one reason for the growing interest in USDT was that it often trades at a premium of around 4% to 5% in markets such as India compared to official dollar exchange rates, allowing recipients to obtain higher value on transfers.

The report said concerns over remittance channels intensified after the United States warned against toll payments to Iran for ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which has faced disruptions during the conflict.

According to Raj Kapoor, president of the India Blockchain Alliance, the conflict has also affected treasury operations and financial activities of global banks operating in the Gulf region, creating additional pressure on conventional remittance systems.

Several Gulf states, including the UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, have introduced regulatory frameworks in recent years allowing stablecoins to operate within parts of their financial systems.

Ryan Kirkley, co-founder and co-chief executive officer of Global Settlement Network, said the conflict had affected not only energy markets and dollar liquidity but also remittance flows relied upon by millions of migrant workers and their families.

India received around $125 billion in remittances last year, with Gulf countries contributing roughly one-third of the total, according to the report.

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Iran war pushes Asia’s Gulf migrants to use stablecoins for remittances

Iran war pushes Asia’s Gulf migrants to use stablecoins for remittances
Asian migrant workers in the Gulf are testing stablecoins as a backup channel for sending money home, as the Iran war heightens fears that the risk of US sanctions could disrupt remittances that millions of families and several Asian economies rely on.

Remittances from these workers account for 3 per cent to 5 per cent of gross domestic product in several emerging markets – in Nepal, it is as high as 10 per cent, according to data from the Global Settlement Network.

Concerns over remittance flows have escalated after the US warned against toll payments to Iran for ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely been blocked amid the ongoing conflict between the two countries.

“There has been a quiet but noticeable informal pivot among South Asian migrant workers, including a significant number from India, towards digital tokens such as stablecoins in the period following the Iran conflict,” said Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based adviser to governments on blockchain and information technology.

“Rather than routing everything through traditional dollar-linked banking channels, a slice of remittances is now moving via instruments like USDT,” he said, referring to the Tether stablecoin backed by the US dollar.

A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value by pegging it to a reserve asset, which could be a fiat currency or other assets, such as gold.

Stablecoins currently account for about 3 to 4 per cent of overall remittances of Gulf-based workers, according to Lian, suggesting that these workers still mostly prefer to transfer money through banks and licensed operators.

Millions of people from India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries have worked in the oil-rich Middle East for years. However, their job uncertainties have increased in recent months as the Iran war entangled other Gulf states.

Lian said a key attraction of the widely used USDT was that it commanded a higher value by about 4 to 5 per cent in markets such as India, compared with the official exchange rate for the US dollar, allowing recipients to get more value.

The prospect of sanctions related to the Iran war has raised fears about disruptions to the dollar-based monetary transfers through traditional modes, although there is no sign that Washington is planning to block legitimate remittances, according to Lian.

Several Gulf countries, such as the UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, have introduced regulations in recent years to allow stablecoins in their financial systems.

Workers in the Middle East are increasingly turning to stablecoins for remittances, given that such transfers are faster than traditional banking systems, according to Lian.

“The shift is real, but incremental, and is concentrated among the more tech-comfortable, urban-linked segment of the diaspora rather than the broader labour corridors,” he said.

Raj Kapoor, president of the India Blockchain Alliance, said global banks had tightened their Gulf operations due to the Iran war, which had affected their treasury and other functions that underpinned remittance flows.

Stablecoins, particularly the USDT and USDC, have filled the gap for financial settlements in the region, according to Kapoor.

“The Iran war has functioned less as a cause and more as a powerful accelerant of a shift that was already structurally under way,” he added.

Ryan Kirkley, co-founder and co-CEO of Global Settlement Network, said the Iran war had caused disruption not only to energy supplies and dollar liquidity but also remittances.

Countries across South Asia and Southeast Asia are reliant on these monetary transfers, with India alone having received US$125 billion in remittances last year and Gulf nations contributing to a third of the figure, according to Kirkley.

Given their significance, compliance standards for stablecoins and tokenised payments should be enhanced and for migrant workers to have this option to send their money home amid the Iran war, Kirkley said.

“If a Gulf bank pulls back on dollar clearing or a UAE exchange house tightens onboarding because of secondary-sanctions exposure, the first thing to feel it is not the oil tanker, it is the construction worker in [the city of] Sharjah trying to send 2,000 UAE dirhams [US$545] home,” he said.

 

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3353456/iran-war-pushes-asias-gulf-migrants-use-stablecoins-remittances

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PPI day warning: Bitcoin faces make-or-break moment as US$79,900 level hangs in balance

PPI day warning: Bitcoin faces make-or-break moment as US$79,900 level hangs in balance

Bitcoin slipped 1.02 per cent to US$80,700.70 over the past 24 hours, underperforming a broadly flat global equity market amid renewed macroeconomic anxiety. The cryptocurrency’s decline reflects a confluence of sticky inflation data, hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, and escalating geopolitical tensions that have pushed traders toward safer assets. With Bitcoin showing a 76 per cent correlation to the S&P 500, this move appears fundamentally rates-driven rather than crypto-specific, signalling that digital assets remain tethered to traditional monetary policy expectations.

The primary catalyst is hotter-than-expected US inflation data released this week. The April Consumer Price Index print came in at 3.8 per cent year-over-year, exceeding the 3.7 per cent consensus forecast, while core CPI landed at 2.8 per cent. This seemingly small miss has profound implications for market participants who had priced in potential rate cuts later this year.

Instead, traders now face the possibility of prolonged periods of elevated interest rates, or even a rate hike, a scenario that drains liquidity from speculative assets like Bitcoin. The potential appointment of Kevin Warsh, considered a hawkish nominee, as Federal Reserve Chair adds another layer of concern about a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

Global equity markets reflected this anxiety with mixed but generally negative performance. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16 per cent to 7,400.96, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led declines with a 0.71 per cent drop to 26,088.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, edging up 0.11 per cent to 49,760.56, supported by healthcare stocks like Humana, which surged 7.7 per cent following a bullish price target upgrade.

Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selloff, with Qualcomm plunging 11 per cent and Micron falling 3.6 per cent as a massive monthly semiconductor rally paused. Asian markets showed similar strain, with the Shanghai Composite retreating 0.25 per cent to 4,214.00 on higher energy costs and local economic caution, though the Straits Times Index managed a 0.64 per cent gain to 4,977.58 in early trade on May 13, supported by regional gains and local bank strength.

Geopolitical tensions added pressure when comments from President Trump suggested the US-Iran ceasefire remains fragile. This injected immediate market anxiety and triggered a wave of long liquidations, wiping out over US$52 million in Bitcoin positions in 24 hours. The instability pushed investors toward the dollar, with the US Dollar Index strengthening by 0.305 points to reach 98.26.

Energy markets reacted sharply to the geopolitical strain and continued closure concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate futures jumped over 9.7 per cent to settle at US$95.73 per barrel, while Brent futures surged 9.2 per cent to cross the psychological barrier of US$100 per barrel at US$100.46. Higher energy costs feed back into inflation concerns, creating a cycle that further pressures risk assets.

The bond market sent clear signals about shifting expectations. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.43 per cent as investors repriced the probability of future rate cuts. This yield movement directly impacts Bitcoin and other risk assets by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments. Even traditional safe havens like gold struggled, sliding US$14.90 per ounce to US$4,713.80, while silver dropped slightly to US$85.52 per ounce, suggesting that the dollar’s strength overwhelmed traditional flight-to-safety flows.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin faces a critical juncture. The cryptocurrency has encountered resistance at US$82,000 multiple times and now tests immediate support at the psychological US$80,000 level and the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$79,912. The market structure remains fragile but not broken, with Bitcoin holding above its multi-week bullish trendline.

A break below the US$79,000 support could trigger a drop toward the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci level near US$78,130. The key trigger for the next major move is the Producer Price Index report, which will confirm whether inflation pressures persist at the wholesale level. A hot PPI print could break support and confirm bearish momentum, while a cooler reading might allow Bitcoin to stabilise and potentially reclaim the US$82,000 resistance level.

The current market dynamics reveal that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic narratives despite its growing institutional adoption through exchange-traded funds. While long-term structural demand from ETFs provides a fundamental floor, short-term sentiment remains cautious and reactive to traditional financial indicators.

The 76 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 underscores that Bitcoin has not yet decoupled from traditional risk assets during periods of monetary policy uncertainty. Traders now watch whether Bitcoin can defend the US$79,900 to US$80,000 support zone following the PPI data release, or whether this marks the beginning of another leg down in a broader risk-off environment driven by inflation fears and geopolitical instability.

Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory hinges on the interplay between macro data, geopolitical developments, and technical levels. The path forward requires careful navigation of both traditional macro indicators and crypto-specific technical levels, with liquidity conditions and leverage ratios playing outsized roles in amplifying moves in either direction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/ppi-day-warning-bitcoin-faces-make-or-break-moment-as-us79900-level-hangs-in-balance-20260513/

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