Posts from the 'Op-Ed' Category

Bitcoin dropped from $86,500 to $81,000 in days. Are you worried?

Bitcoin dropped from $86,500 to $81,000 in days. Are you worried?

Key Points:

  1. Bitcoin trades $80,550 to $81,000, down 3.3% to 4% in 24h from $86,500. Ethereum trades $2,410 to $2,470, down 5.7% to 6% from above $2,700. Total crypto market cap fell 2.53% to $2.76T.

  2. Bitcoin drop below $77,000 triggered $303.08M in BTC long liquidations, a 62.97% surge. Volume rose 15.02% overall and 65.95% in derivatives. Excessive leverage turned a pullback into an accelerated decline.

  3. Ethereum fell 8.62% over 7d partly on fears AI could break elliptic-curve cryptography. NEAR fell 15.79% after a 91.61% 30d rally. ZEC fell 10.39% after a 567.13% 30d rally. Profit-taking hit overheated altcoins.

  4. Market tests Fibonacci 50% retracement at $2.76T. Next critical level is 61.8% at $2.71T. A break below could target swing low of $2.57T. Crypto shows 75% correlation with Nasdaq-100 (QQQ).

 

Bitcoin trades around $80,550 to $81,000. Ethereum trades near $2,410 to $2,470. Both assets dropped sharply on October 9, 2026. An aggressive deleveraging wave and broader macro risk-off sentiment drove the decline. Bitcoin fell about 3.3% to 4% over the last 24 hours. It dropped from weekly highs near $86,500. Ethereum fell about 5.7% to 6% over the same period. It retreated from weekly levels above $2,700. The total crypto market capitalization fell 2.53% to $2.76T in 24 hours. A massive liquidation cascade primarily drove this move. The crypto market shows a 75% correlation with the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ). That correlation signals a shared macro-driven move. This sell-off is not isolated. It reflects a broader risk-off mood across financial markets. Investors have shown little appetite for speculative positions in this environment. The crypto sector is feeling the same pressure that weighs on technology stocks and other risk assets.

The primary reason for this sell-off is a concentrated wave of long liquidations. Bitcoin led the forced closures. More than $300M in leveraged positions disappeared. The drop below $77,000 triggered a concentrated liquidation wave. Over 24 hours, $303.08M in BTC long positions faced forced closure. That figure marks a 62.97% surge from the prior period. This forced selling in the largest asset spilled over and pressured the entire market. Excessive leverage acted as fuel. It turned a routine pullback into an accelerated decline. High volume spiked 15.02% overall. Derivatives volume spiked 65.95%. These volume spikes confirm panic selling and position unwinding. The cascade did not spare Ethereum. The second-largest asset suffered its own wave of liquidations. The entire crypto ecosystem felt the aftershock as traders rushed to reduce exposure.

Traders should watch for a sustained drop in open interest and funding rates. Such a drop would signal that deleveraging is cooling. Until that happens, prices remain vulnerable to further bouts of forced selling. The current environment rewards caution. Excessive leverage built up in the system over recent weeks. That leverage created a fragile structure. When prices dipped below key thresholds, the structure collapsed. The high volume confirms that many participants exited positions in a hurry. Panic selling often marks a short-term bottom. It can also precede further declines if support levels fail. The next few sessions will reveal whether the deleveraging has run its course. A calm derivatives market would provide the first real sign of stability. Until then, every rally attempt faces the risk of another liquidation cascade.

Secondary pressures came from sector-specific worries. Ethereum fell 8.62% over 7d. Fears that artificial intelligence could break elliptic-curve cryptography partly drove that drop. Coinbase’s cryptographer debated this issue. The debate sparked concern among holders. At the same time, overheated altcoins saw sharp profit-taking. NEAR and ZEC corrected after extended rallies. NEAR fell 15.79%. ZEC fell 10.39%. Those declines followed massive 30d rallies. NEAR had gained 91.61%. ZEC had gained 567.13%. The sell-off was not monolithic. It combined technical profit-taking in overbought altcoins with nascent, fear-driven narratives about core blockchain security. These narratives added a new layer of uncertainty to an already fragile ecosystem. The AI cryptography discussion matters for the long term. In the short term, it gave traders another reason to sell. The debate itself is healthy. Panic selling based on it is not. Ethereum’s 8.62% 7d decline outpaced Bitcoin’s 24 hour drop, which shows altcoins carry more beta in this risk-off phase.

The near-term outlook hinges on key technical levels. The market is testing a key Fibonacci 50% retracement level at $2.76T. The immediate path depends on whether this support holds. The next critical level is the 61.8% retracement at $2.71T. Upcoming macro cues, such as the next FOMC decision, will influence broader risk appetite. A hold above $2.71T could lead to a period of consolidation and base-building. A break below that level would likely trigger another leg down toward the swing low of $2.57T. This risk is especially high if leveraged long positions rebuild too quickly and become vulnerable again. The asset class needs time to heal. It also needs a calmer macro backdrop. The correlation with the Nasdaq-100 means crypto will struggle to rally if technology stocks remain under pressure. The $2.76T level matters as the first test. The $2.71T level matters as the last line of defense before $2.57T.

In my view, this downturn is a violent deleveraging event. It is not a fundamental rejection of the asset class. Excessive leverage built up across BTC and altcoins. The liquidation cascade provided a brutal reset. The AI cryptography fears, while legitimate in the long run, have amplified short-term panic. The core technology behind Bitcoin and Ethereum remains sound. The cryptographic community continues to work on quantum-resistant solutions. The real risk is not that AI will break elliptic-curve cryptography tomorrow. The real risk is that fear over such a possibility could drive investors away from the asset class. The macro environment is the more pressing concern. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance and geopolitical tensions simmer, crypto will struggle to mount a sustained recovery. The $2.71T level is the line in the sand. If it holds, we could see stabilization in the coming weeks. If it breaks, prices may need to retest their July lows. The pain could extend well into the final quarter of the year.

Market Outlook: Bearish Pressure. The downturn was primarily a violent deleveraging event. Sector-specific anxieties and profit-taking amplified it. The ability to stabilize now depends on holding key technical supports and avoiding another buildup of speculative long leverage. Will the $2.71T level hold, or is a retest of the July lows ahead? The answer will shape the direction of the crypto sector for weeks to come. For now, caution remains the order of the day.

 

Source:

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Bitcoin jumped 1.81% to $86,350.24. Is this a real breakout or a short squeeze?

Bitcoin jumped 1.81% to $86,350.24. Is this a real breakout or a short squeeze?

5 key points:

  1. Bitcoin rose 1.81% to $86,350.24 in 24 hours, beating a broader market gain of 1.45%. 

  2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs started October with $134.4M net inflows over 2 sessions, reversing late September outflows. 

  3. Short liquidations totalled $22.16M in 24 hours, a 1304% increase. 

  4. Key resistance sits at $87,500. A daily close above it could trigger more short covering and target $90,000 or more. 

  5. SEC approved Cboe BZX rule change on 2 October 2026 for 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ether ETPs. 

 

 

Bitcoin rose 1.81% to $86,350.24 in 24 hours, slightly outperforming the broader market, which gained 1.45%. The move looks modest on the surface. Underneath, two forces drove the gain. Renewed spot ETF demand and a softer macro backdrop gave the largest cryptocurrency a firmer floor. A short squeeze then amplified the rise. The coin now trades with a 96% correlation to the Nasdaq-100 ETF, QQQ, over 30 days. That link shows Bitcoin and tech growth assets have moved together. For anyone reading the next move, that relationship matters because it means Bitcoin is not trading in isolation. It is trading as part of a broader growth complex, which responds to interest rate expectations and institutional flows.

United States spot Bitcoin ETFs started October with $134.4 million in net inflows over two sessions. That flow reversed outflows from late September. Real capital entering through regulated products provides a fundamental floor. The timing helped. A weak jobs report showed only 29,000 jobs added. Market-implied odds of an October Fed rate hike fell to 14% from 70% earlier in the week. Lower hike odds reduce pressure on risk assets. The combination of ETF demand and a less hawkish Fed narrative pushed the coin higher. The macro relief did not arrive alone. It landed alongside genuine buying through exchange-traded funds. The move had both a narrative and a capital flow behind it. That setup is stronger than a rally built only on sentiment because it ties price to real demand rather than to speculation alone.

A mechanical force added fuel. Short liquidations totaled $22.16 million over 24 hours, a 1304% increase. That jump shows a short squeeze at work. When traders bet against Bitcoin, and price rises through their stop levels, exchanges force them to buy back. That buying pushes price higher, which triggers more liquidations. This feedback loop accelerated the rally. Technically, Bitcoin trades above its 7-day SMA at $84,467. Its 7-day RSI is at 74.93, indicating overbought conditions. The rally may be extended. A high RSI warns of near-term consolidation or pullback as overbought conditions work off. Watch whether price sustains above the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level at $84,432. A clean hold above that line would keep momentum intact. A slip below it would give buyers a reason to pause and reassess.

The immediate path depends on Bitcoin’s ability to challenge resistance at $87,500. Analysts identify that level as critical for triggering a larger short squeeze. A daily close above $87,500 would confirm a bullish continuation and set a target of $90,000 or higher. A failure to hold support at $82,000 to $82,500 risks a pullback toward $80,000. The Fed meeting on October 28 is the next major macro event that could shift the rate narrative. The September CPI report, released on October 14, also matters. Bias is cautiously bullish above support. The market watches for a clear breakout or rejection at $87,500. The space between those levels may hold until a catalyst arrives. That range would let overbought technicals cool without forcing a deeper correction.

A separate development adds a new layer. On 2 October 2026, the SEC approved a rule change that allows Cboe BZX to list 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ether ETPs. The approval covers 6 futures-based ETPs from Volatility Shares’ VS Trust. They target 3x the daily performance of Bitcoin, Ether, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas. The Bitcoin and Ether products follow CME futures rather than holding the assets directly. Trading cannot start until the separate registrations go into effect. No effective date exists yet. This approval expands regulated access to leverage around Bitcoin. It could increase short-term volatility and liquidation risk without changing spot supply or ETF fundamentals. The next key steps are the SEC effectiveness of S-1 registrations, actual listing dates, and the volume and leverage these funds attract once trading begins. If traders embrace these products, daily swings around macro events and ETF-flow spikes could increase. If they stay on the sidelines, the approval remains a structural footnote.

My own view is that this rally has a firmer base than a sentiment bounce. ETF inflows show real capital moving through regulated channels. The macro shift is measurable in expectations for rates. The short squeeze is temporary, but it cleared bearish positioning. Overbought technicals and the lack of a decisive break above $87,500 argue for caution. The market priced in good news quickly. If CPI on October 14 surprises to the upside or the Fed on October 28 signals that rate hikes remain on the table, the same macro tailwind could reverse. The bias leans bullish above $82,000. The next leg higher needs either a clean breakout with volume or a consolidation that lets momentum reset. The SEC’s approval of 3x ETPs does not change the structural demand for spot Bitcoin. Its real impact will depend on how aggressively traders use these products once they launch. Registration effectiveness, early volume patterns, and any liquidation-driven volatility are the key signals to watch.

The market outlook stays bullish, but extended. Bitcoin’s gain rests on concrete ETF inflows and a favorable shift in rate expectations. Overbought technicals suggest the pace may slow. The key question is whether the coin can muster enough volume to break the $87,500 barrier, or whether it consolidates between $82,500 and $87,500 ahead of the Fed. A break above $87,500 opens $90,000 or more. A break below $82,000 to $82,500 shifts attention to $80,000. For now, the evidence supports a cautiously bullish stance. The October 14 CPI report and the October 28 Fed meeting are the 2 events most likely to determine the next direction.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-jumped-1-81-to-us86350-24-is-this-a-real-breakout-or-a-short-squeeze-20261005/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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The October 2 U.S. jobs report lands soon. Could it make or break Bitcoin’s rally?

The October 2 U.S. jobs report lands soon. Could it make or break Bitcoin’s rally?

The cryptocurrency sector is moving higher in a coordinated fashion. Bitcoin rose 1.70% to $85,002.11 over the past 24 hours. The total crypto market climbed 1.16% to $2.89T. This advance rests on 2 powerful forces. Institutional optimism and policy progress are working together. The result is a rally that looks more grounded than a purely speculative surge. Digital assets are responding to concrete developments that could reshape how traditional finance interacts with this space.

The primary catalyst arrived on October 1. Citigroup analyst Alex Saunders raised the bank’s base-case Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000. Saunders cited renewed ETF inflows and positive sentiment. At the same time, the SEC proposed a tailored custody framework for investment advisers. This framework would allow self-custody under certain conditions. The proposal addresses a key operational hurdle that has limited professional product offerings. These 2 events signal growing Wall Street validation and clearer oversight pathways. They directly boost large-player buying interest. Traders read these developments as evidence that barriers to broader professional participation are slowly coming down.

Market structure data supports the view that this advance is orderly rather than frenzied. Derivatives open interest increased 6.28%. Liquidations fell sharply by 61.8%. That combination points to a controlled move without a leverage flush. Bitcoin dominance held at 58.96%. This stability suggests core assets led the rally rather than speculative altcoins. Social sentiment for Bitcoin remained mildly bullish with a net score of 5.26. Broader social sentiment registered a net score of 5.85. The Fear & Greed Index reading of 68 places the sector in Greed territory. The top-trending narrative is the US Strategic Crypto Reserve, which gained 1.41% over the same period. These metrics paint a picture of steady capital inflow. They do not show forced selling pressure or excessive speculation.

The correlation between this asset class and traditional risk assets deserves attention. Crypto shows an 80% correlation with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). This relationship suggests that digital assets increasingly trade in tandem with broader risk sentiment. They no longer behave as an isolated asset class. The implication is significant. Crypto participants must now weigh macroeconomic factors alongside sector-specific developments. The upcoming U.S. jobs report on October 2 looms as an immediate trigger. That report could influence rate expectations and risk appetite across both traditional and digital markets.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin faces a substantial sell wall between $85,000 and $86,500 on Binance. Traders noted this wall on September 24. The 365-day moving average near $80,000 provides major support. If Bitcoin holds above $83,000, it could challenge the key resistance zone between $85,000 and $86,500. A drop below $82,000 risks a pullback toward the $80,000 support. The path of least resistance remains upward. Progress hinges on absorbing the overhead supply. Whether spot volume expands on a decisive break above $85,000 will confirm genuine buying interest over passive resistance. The key question for the immediate future is whether Bitcoin can close above $85,500 within the next 48 hours. Such a finish would signal a convincing breakout from its recent range.

For the broader crypto sector, the technical picture is equally instructive. The market cap is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.85T. Near-term resistance sits at the recent swing high of $2.94T. A hold above $2.85T suggests traders are pricing in the bullish catalyst. A failure here could see a retest of the 50% level at $2.76T. If the SEC’s proposal maintains positive momentum, a test of the $2.94T ceiling is likely. A drop below $2.85T could signal a return to consolidation. The $2.85T to $2.94T range represents the immediate battleground. A close above it could signal a continuation toward $3.03T.

Spot Bitcoin ETF AUM now stands at $111.13B. That figure rose from $110.97B yesterday. This modest but consistent increase aligns with the inflow trend cited by Citigroup. Sustained weekly ETF flow data will be crucial to confirm whether professional capital continues to enter the space at a meaningful pace. The 60-day public comment period on the SEC’s custody proposal will also bear watching. Formal responses from major financial institutions could shape the final oversight landscape. Any softening of large-player backing or negative policy surprises could quickly alter the current trajectory.

My point of view is that this rally rests on more durable foundations than previous speculative surges. The combination of a major bank’s endorsement and proactive policy clarity provides a firm foundation for Bitcoin’s latest leg higher. The trading environment is not simply responding to hype. It is responding to concrete shifts in the institutional and policy landscape. The alignment between Bitcoin’s strength and the broader market’s uptick suggests a healthy dynamic in which core assets lead rather than lag. This sector remains vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks, particularly from the upcoming jobs report. The 80% correlation with the Russell 2000 ETF suggests that any risk-off sentiment in traditional markets could quickly spill over into crypto.

The near-term outlook is cautiously optimistic. A tangible reduction in policy uncertainty anchors the uptick. That reduction could unlock new professional capital. Positive sentiment and Bitcoin’s leadership provide a supportive backdrop. The key question for the week is whether the sector can convert this policy goodwill into a sustained breakout above $2.94T. For Bitcoin specifically, the challenge is whether it can absorb the sell wall at $85,000 to $86,500 and establish a new range. If these technical barriers fall, the path toward $113,000 as forecast by Citigroup becomes more plausible. If they hold, the market may need to consolidate further before attempting another leg higher. The next 48 hours will be critical in determining which scenario unfolds.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-october-2-us-jobs-report-lands-soon-could-it-make-or-break-bitcoins-rally-20261002/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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