Posts from the 'News' Category

Bitcoin volume drops 6.14%, and everyone calls a bottom, I disagree

Bitcoin volume drops 6.14%, and everyone calls a bottom, I disagree

Bitcoin sits at US$66,188.15 this morning, down 0.65 per cent over the past 24 hours, and the number tells only a fraction of the story. The cryptocurrency pulled back from a one-month high near US$67,000 as WTI crude oil surged above US$85 and then climbed further toward US$94 per barrel amid an escalating US-Iran conflict now in its second week.

The broader crypto market cap slipped 0.47 per cent alongside Bitcoin, volume contracted 6.14 per cent, and Bitcoin dominance held near 59 per cent with no meaningful capital rotation into altcoins. On the surface, this looks like a gentle consolidation after a recovery rally from July lows.

But when I step back and look at the full macro picture unfolding on July 23, 2026, I struggle to share the optimism that we have found a floor. The global factors stacking up right now suggest Bitcoin has more downside to endure before any sustainable recovery takes shape.

The oil story dominates everything else at this moment. Crude prices above US$94 per barrel represent the highest levels since June, and they carry direct implications for inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. The US-Iran conflict shows no signs of de-escalation as it enters its second week, which means supply disruption risks remain firmly on the table. Higher energy costs feed into transport, manufacturing, and consumer prices across the board. Airlines already face margin compression.

Treasury yields hover near 2026 peaks as bond markets price in the possibility that the Fed keeps rates higher for longer. The July 28 FOMC meeting looms as the next critical catalyst, and if the statement hints at delayed rate cuts or, worse, another hike, risk assets, including Bitcoin, will absorb the blow directly. Bitcoin in this environment behaves exactly like a leveraged tech stock rather than a decoupled store of value, and that correlation works against holders when macro conditions deteriorate.

The equity backdrop reinforces my caution. Wall Street benchmarks finished lower overnight, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slipping as megacap tech earnings delivered mixed signals. Tesla fell around four per cent after missing both revenue and margin estimates. Alphabet reported strong Q2 cloud growth but slid in extended trading as investors baulked at plans to increase capital expenditures. Yes, Super Micro Computer surged 20 per cent on strong AI server margin forecasts, but that single bright spot does not offset the broader disappointment.

The AI narrative that has propped up markets for over one year now faces scrutiny on whether spending translates into returns. When growth stocks wobble, Bitcoin wobbles harder. The 6.14 per cent drop in crypto trading volume suggests buyers have stepped back and lack the conviction to defend current levels. This is not the behaviour of a market that has found its bottom.

Technically, Bitcoin tests its daily pivot near US$66,103 right now. The immediate Fibonacci support sits at US$64,750, representing the 23.6 per cent retracement level. Below that, the US$63,000 to US$63,400 zone serves as the next meaningful floor. Overhead, the 100-day EMA near US$68,000 caps any rally attempt. The structure looks neutral on paper, but I read it as fragile.

A close below US$64,750 opens the trapdoor toward US$63,000, and given the macro headwinds I just described, I think that break becomes more probable with each passing day of elevated oil prices and unresolved geopolitical tension. The recovery channel from July lows remains intact for now, but channels break, and they tend to break in the direction of the prevailing macro wind.

Grayscale research head Zach Pandl offers a more constructive view, suggesting Bitcoin’s recent price low might hold if the Federal Reserve ends interest rate hikes and economic growth remains stable. He treats Bitcoin as a mature asset influenced by growth and Fed policy, rather than by the traditional four-year cycle model, which would predict a longer bear market and deeper declines.

Grayscale also points to the CLARITY Act and Strategy’s improved financial position, including a US$216 million Bitcoin sale that strengthened cash reserves and reduced forced selling risks, as structural positives. I respect that framework, but it relies on the Fed cooperating and growth holding steady. With oil above US$94 and inflation concerns resurfacing, the Fed has every reason to stay hawkish. The conditions Pandl requires for a bottom simply do not exist right now.

SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci argues that Bitcoin will grind higher from here and cannot get much worse. I appreciate the sentiment, but the global picture tells a different story. Mixed Asian markets preparing for a cautious open, a steady US Dollar against the Yen and Euro that signals continued risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions with no resolution timeline all point toward sustained pressure. The AI boom cushions some of the blow in equities, but it does not immunise crypto from a liquidity squeeze if yields push higher.

Here is where I land. Bitcoin at US$66,188.15 reflects a market in pause, not a market in recovery. The 0.65 per cent daily decline understates the vulnerability beneath the surface. Oil above US$94, an active US-Iran conflict, disappointing tech earnings, yields at 2026 peaks, and an FOMC meeting five days away create a cocktail of risk that has not fully priced into crypto.

The 6.14 per cent volume decline confirms that participants are waiting on the sidelines rather than accumulating. Bitcoin dominance at 59 per cent shows no rotation, no excitement, no fresh capital entering the ecosystem. I do not think we have bottomed.

The US$64,750 level will face a serious test before July ends, and if the FOMC disappoints or oil pushes toward US$100, the US$63,000 zone becomes the realistic near-term target. Patience, not optimism, serves holders best in this environment. The macro picture has not given us permission to call a bottom, and until it does, every rally toward US$68,000 looks like a selling opportunity rather than a breakout.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-volume-drops-6-14-and-everyone-calls-a-bottom-i-disagree-20260723/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why Bitcoin’s record on chain activity is not the price guarantee you think it is

Why Bitcoin’s record on chain activity is not the price guarantee you think it is

Bitcoin has retreated by 0.52 per cent over a 24h period, sliding to US$63,593.12 and underperforming a generally flat broader market. This downward movement stems primarily from a firm technical rejection at key resistance zones alongside cooling momentum following a strong weekly rally. Sellers emerged to halt the July advance, which had reached 8.4 per cent before hitting a known technical ceiling near US$65,800. Compounding this technical slowdown is a notable 13.95 per cent drop in 24h trading volume, indicating reduced buying conviction after the market booked four consecutive daily gains last week.

Beyond the immediate price action and cooling technical indicators, underlying demand metrics point to broader institutional hesitation in Western markets. United States spot demand remains structurally subdued, as evidenced by the Coinbase premium remaining negative for over 50 days. This persistent discount suggests that domestic retail and institutional investors are withholding aggressive buy orders, leaving spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows highly inconsistent. At the same time, aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures markets has declined. This reduction in open interest signals that speculative leverage is actively leaving the market rather than expanding, leaving recent price gains vulnerable to pullbacks without a strong institutional bid to support the base.

While the short-term price action remains constrained by these technical ceilings and cooling derivatives markets, the underlying Bitcoin network is experiencing an unprecedented surge in utility. On-chain data indicate that Bitcoin is processing its highest sustained transaction volume in its 17-year history. The network is averaging approximately 670,000 transactions per day throughout 2026, nearly doubling last year’s activity and approaching prior all-time highs. A deeper analysis reveals that recent data indicate the network processes an average of 673,822 transactions per day. This broad-based rebound in usage is characterised by a high volume of small transactions and emerging applications, rather than by large-value transfers alone.

Specific daily metrics confirm the historic scale of this on-chain activity. According to block data, the Bitcoin network processed 862,979 transactions on June 23, 2026, marking the 3rd-busiest single day in the protocol’s history. This explosive activity lifted the daily average for June 2026 to 651,655 transactions, a 90 per cent increase over the June 2025 daily average of 342,866 transactions. Both the median and average daily transaction counts across 2026 now comfortably exceed the full-year totals for 2024 and 2025. This structural shift is driven largely by an increase in smaller transactions, alongside innovative use cases such as Bitcoin non-fungible tokens and timestamping services that write data directly to the blockchain.

This high transaction count introduces a complex dynamic for the ecosystem, as it reflects a diverse mix of traditional value transfers, exchange settlements, whale movements, and newer programmable applications. For everyday users, this elevated activity demands close observation of average fees, mempool sizes, and layer 2 sidechain congestion to determine if the base layer can handle the load. The current market outlook remains neutral to bearish below immediate resistance, though the primary trend hinges on the US$63,619 support level, which aligns with the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci regression. If Bitcoin can defend this support level, it sets up another potential run toward US$65,800, whereas a daily close below this level risks an immediate drop to US$61,377.

The market’s immediate direction is closely tied to broader macroeconomic shocks and sudden geopolitical escalations that are fracturing global investor confidence. Major global financial markets fell sharply as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with a steep semiconductor sell-off, broke the record-setting momentum on Wall Street. Following Iran’s targeting of three commercial tankers in the critical Strait of Hormuz, the United States military executed powerful retaliatory airstrikes. Simultaneously, the United States Treasury revoked a vital waiver that had previously allowed Iran to sell crude oil globally, triggering fears of severe supply disruptions and sending global energy benchmarks rocketing upward.

The impact of these energy market disruptions was immediate and volatile across global oil benchmarks. Brent crude surged by over five per cent to breach US$75.70 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 5.3 per cent to finish trading above US$72.20 per barrel. This inflationary energy shock hit equity markets precisely as technology stocks suffered an independent structural rout. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell significantly, led by a 4.65 per cent plunge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Investor confidence in long-term market dominance and pricing power evaporated after reports that a Chinese startup, DeepSeek, is independently developing its own artificial intelligence chip architecture, shaking the core growth thesis of established technology giants.

This shift in technology sector sentiment highlights a growing disconnect between blockbuster corporate earnings and loftier investor expectations. Samsung Electronics reported record preliminary quarterly profits, yet its stock still plunged 6.9 per cent in Asian trading, illustrating that market expectations for artificial intelligence build-out metrics have reached unsustainably high levels. The resulting sector pullback forced major tech components lower, with Micron falling 4.7 per cent and SanDisk retreating by 7.3 per cent. These equity losses were exacerbated by macro pressures in fixed-income markets, where the United States 10-Year Treasury yield edged up to 4.556 per cent, compressing stock valuations across high-growth sectors.

Faced with these overlapping pressures, investors are demonstrating severe caution ahead of the afternoon release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the June meeting. This policy document represents the very first official communication issued under the leadership of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Market participants are waiting to see whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 7-day exponential moving average near US$62,702 or if macro comments will force a deeper flush toward lower support levels. I said the same yesterday, too.

The combination of technical resistance, weak spot demand, semiconductor sector anxiety, and escalating energy prices has forced a neutral range consolidation, proving that even record-breaking on-chain utility cannot completely shield digital assets from macro volatility.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoins-record-on-chain-activity-is-not-the-price-guarantee-you-think-it-is-20260708/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

From Dow 50,000 to Bitcoin US$70,000: The leverage cascade that could wipe out gains

From Dow 50,000 to Bitcoin US$70,000: The leverage cascade that could wipe out gains

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the historic US$50,000 mark, settling at US$50,284 with a gain of 0.55 per cent or US$276. This milestone reflects more than just numerical progress. It signals a market grappling with competing forces: geopolitical optimism, corporate earnings volatility, and the persistent undercurrent of leverage that defines modern trading.

The S&P 500 advanced to US$7,445.72, up 0.17 per cent, snapping a three-day losing streak, while the Nasdaq Composite edged higher to US$26,293.10 with a modest 0.09 per cent increase as technology momentum balanced earnings pressure. These moves occurred within a highly volatile session, reminding us that record highs often mask fragile foundations.

Geopolitical developments provided a key catalyst. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted encouraging signs in US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan. This diplomatic progress helped cool energy markets. Brent crude ticked back to US$104.52 per barrel on Friday due to strict domestic directives from Tehran’s Supreme Leader, though oil futures remain down over four per cent for the week.

That relief from multi-month energy spikes has eased cross-asset inflation concerns, allowing equities to breathe. I view this optimism with measured scepticism. Peace negotiations in volatile regions often follow unpredictable paths, and markets pricing in premature certainty risk sharp reversals. The correlation between geopolitical headlines and asset prices underscores how traditional finance remains reactive to centralised power structures, a dynamic that decentralised systems aim to transcend.

Corporate earnings revealed stark divergence. NVIDIA fell 1.78 per cent as profit-taking eclipsed its blowout Q1 results, which featured an elevated US$0.25 dividend and a new US$80 billion buyback programme. This reaction highlights a market increasingly focused on forward guidance rather than past performance. In contrast, IBM surged 12.55 per cent, lifting the Dow alongside a broader rally in quantum computing stocks sparked by fresh U.S. government-backed investments. This surge reflects capital rotating into sectors perceived as strategic long-term bets.

Meanwhile, Walmart plunged 7.21 per cent after issuing a weaker-than-expected Q2 outlook despite beating Q1 revenue estimates. These moves illustrate a market dissecting nuance: rewarding strategic positioning while punishing even slight missteps in guidance. From my perspective, this earnings season reinforces the intelligence gap in traditional markets. Algorithms and institutional flows react to headlines, but they often miss the structural shifts happening beneath the surface, particularly in decentralised finance, where value accrual operates on different principles.

Global markets tracked Wall Street’s momentum with regional variations. Asia-Pacific equities logged a second consecutive day of gains. South Korea saw consumer sentiment surge at its fastest pace in a year to 106.1, breaking past the 100-point threshold on booming semiconductor exports. Australia’s ASX 200 pointed higher as softer employment data cast structural doubts on further Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes.

These regional signals matter because they reveal how local economic conditions interact with global liquidity flows. Gold slid slightly to US$4,531.71 per ounce, down 0.25 per cent, continuing a mild 3.5 per cent retraction over the last month from its January all-time high. This modest pullback in a traditional safe haven suggests investors currently favour risk assets, though the proximity to record highs indicates underlying caution persists.

Bitcoin’s behaviour offers a critical lens through which to view this landscape. As of May 22, 2026, Bitcoin trades at US$77,095.76, reflecting a minor downward drift of 0.04 per cent over the last 24 hours. The digital asset continues to experience short-term consolidation within a tightly defined local range. The near-term outlook remains neutral, with a slight bearish bias, amid recent institutional outflows and macroeconomic pressures. The bearish case presents a primary scenario in which Bitcoin struggles to build an aggressive continuation after its recent drop below US$80,000.

If sellers reject the local US$78,000 push during the U.S. trading session, expect the asset to sweep through the lower-liquidity pools around US$75,500 to US$76,000 before forming a stable floor. The bullish case offers a secondary path: if global markets carry over yesterday’s record-breaking stock market momentum, a high-volume breakout above US$78,500 could trigger a swift relief bounce back toward the US$80,000 psychological milestone.

Here lies the crux of my concern and my conviction. A staggering US$22 billion in leverage is currently trapped in the market. If Bitcoin slides slightly further to US$75,500, it risks triggering over US$12.7 billion in forced long liquidations, causing a rapid cascade down to US$70,000. This leverage concentration represents a systemic vulnerability that traditional finance has yet to adequately address.

While equity markets celebrate record highs, the crypto ecosystem operates with transparent, on-chain leverage metrics that reveal fragility invisible to conventional analysis. I have long argued that applying traditional financial tests, such as the Howey test, to decentralised systems misses the point entirely. Bitcoin’s price action today reflects not just supply and demand, but the tension between centralised market structures and decentralised network resilience.

The Memorial Day holiday weekend adds another layer, with bond markets scheduled to close early today at 2:00 PM ET. Reduced liquidity can amplify moves, making the current consolidation in Bitcoin particularly noteworthy. I see this moment as emblematic of a broader transition. Traditional markets gain ground on geopolitical hope and corporate strength, though they remain exposed to leverage shocks and centralised decision-making. Decentralised systems like Bitcoin offer an alternative architecture, but they too grapple with speculative excess and liquidity fragility.

Looking ahead, the path for both traditional and digital assets hinges on how markets digest macroeconomic data, geopolitical developments, and technological progress. The next chapter in this market story will likely be written not by headlines alone, but by the underlying architecture of the systems we choose to trust.

 

Source: https://e27.co/from-dow-50000-to-bitcoin-us70000-the-leverage-cascade-that-could-wipe-out-gains-20260522/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j