Posts from the 'News' Category

While you were sleeping: Iran closed a critical oil route and crypto exploits

While you were sleeping: Iran closed a critical oil route and crypto exploits

Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market capitalisation has contracted by 1.74 per cent to settle at US$2.51T, a decline that reveals deeper structural concerns within the digital asset ecosystem. This selloff arrives at a particularly ironic moment, given that traditional equity markets closed at record highs just days prior on April 17, with the S&P 500 reaching 7,126.06, the Nasdaq Composite climbing to 24,468.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching 49,447.43. The stark divergence between these two worlds tells a story of a crypto market still struggling to mature beyond its inherent vulnerabilities.

The primary catalyst for this latest downturn stems from a devastating US$292M exploit targeting Kelp DAO’s rsETH bridge on April 19. This incident did not occur in isolation; it triggered immediate systemic risk across the decentralised finance landscape. Major protocols, including Aave and Treehouse, found themselves scrambling to review their exposures, sparking a wave of panic withdrawals that rippled through Ethereum-based DeFi platforms.

The impact on Ethereum itself proved severe, with the asset declining 3.18 per cent as investors fled leveraged positions and liquidity evaporated from key trading pairs. This episode underscores a persistent and uncomfortable truth about the crypto ecosystem. Smart-contract vulnerabilities remain a critical weakness that can undermine market confidence in a matter of hours.

What makes this situation particularly concerning is the timing. The exploit coincided with escalating geopolitical tensions as Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. This development sent shockwaves through global markets, with Brent crude oil surging approximately six to seven per cent to exceed US$95 per barrel. The reintroduction of such significant risk premiums has forced traders to reassess their exposure to speculative assets across the board.

Crypto markets, despite their narrative of decentralisation and independence from traditional finance, have demonstrated remarkable sensitivity to these macro shocks. The 7-day correlation between crypto and Gold has reached 81 per cent, indicating that during periods of uncertainty, digital assets increasingly move in tandem with traditional safe-haven instruments rather than maintaining their promised role as an uncorrelated alternative investment.

The International Monetary Fund recently cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent, warning that continued energy supply disruptions could push the economy toward a more adverse 2.5 per cent scenario. This backdrop of economic uncertainty heightens pressure on risk assets, and crypto is particularly exposed given its relatively short track record of navigating genuine geopolitical crises. The market now faces a critical test as it attempts to determine whether the rsETH exploit represents an isolated incident or the beginning of a broader contagion that could cascade through interconnected DeFi protocols.

The market has established US$2.44T as a crucial Fibonacci support level that must hold to prevent further deterioration. Should the market consolidate between this US$2.44T floor and the US$2.53T resistance level, it would suggest that the worst of the selling pressure has been absorbed. A sustained break below US$2.44T would open the door to testing the US$2.35T level, which would represent a much more severe correction.

Bitcoin’s dominance currently sits at 59.3 per cent, and this metric will prove essential in determining whether the market can stabilise. If Bitcoin maintains its defensive anchor role while altcoins continue to weaken, it would indicate a flight to quality within the crypto ecosystem itself. Conversely, if Bitcoin’s dominance begins to erode, it would signal broader market distress.

The path forward depends on several critical factors that will unfold over the coming days.

  • First, the crypto community needs clarity on the total losses stemming from the Kelp DAO exploit and assurance that no additional vulnerabilities exist in related protocols.
  • Second, markets require some resolution or de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz situation, as continued geopolitical tension will keep risk premiums elevated across all asset classes.
  • Third, investors await S&P Global flash PMIs later this week to gauge how the US economy navigates elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty, as any signs of economic deterioration would further pressure risk assets.

The divergence between traditional equity markets hitting record highs and crypto markets under siege reveals the immature nature of digital assets as an investment class. While the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones posted gains of 1.20 per cent, 1.52 per cent, and 1.79 per cent, respectively, on April 17, crypto markets have proven unable to insulate themselves from either technical exploits or macroeconomic shocks. This reality challenges the narrative that cryptocurrencies are a mature alternative investment vehicle and instead positions them as highly speculative assets vulnerable to both internal technical failures and external geopolitical pressures.

The week of April 20, 2026, will prove pivotal in determining whether the crypto market can demonstrate resilience amid compound crises or succumb to a more severe correction that could take months to recover from. Investors would be wise to monitor both the technical support levels and the broader geopolitical landscape with equal attention, as the convergence of these factors will likely dictate market direction in the critical days ahead.

 

Source: https://e27.co/while-you-were-sleeping-iran-closed-a-critical-oil-route-and-crypto-exploits-20260420/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

The alarming reason crypto now moves like gold but falls like stocks

The alarming reason crypto now moves like gold but falls like stocks

Financial markets worldwide faced significant pressure this week as escalating geopolitical tensions triggered a broad-based retreat from risk assets. The cryptocurrency market declined 1.17 per cent to reach US$2.42T over a 24-hour period, moving in lockstep with traditional equities and commodities in what analysts describe as a classic risk-off response to mounting global uncertainty. This synchronised movement reveals the extent to which digital assets have become integrated into the broader financial system, with crypto now showing a remarkable 94 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 and an 88 per cent correlation with gold.

The catalyst for this market-wide decline emerged from the collapse of US-Iran peace talks and the subsequent announcement of a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12. This dramatic escalation sent oil prices surging nearly eight per cent to cross US$104 per barrel, reigniting fears of supply disruptions and asymmetric inflation shocks that could derail the global economic recovery. Traditional equity markets responded immediately to the heightened tensions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 269.23 points to close at 47,916.57, representing a decline of 0.56 per cent. The S&P 500 slipped 7.77 points to 6,816.89, down 0.11 per cent, while Asian markets bore the brunt of the selling pressure. The Nikkei 225 plummeted 477.85 points to 56,446.26, a drop of 0.84 per cent. Only the Nasdaq Composite managed to post gains, rising 80.48 points to 22,902.9 for a 0.35 per cent increase, while the FTSE 100 Index edged up 0.03 per cent to 10,600.53 despite falling 2.95 points in absolute terms.

What makes this particular sell-off noteworthy is the degree to which cryptocurrency has shed its reputation as an uncorrelated alternative asset class. The 94 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 indicates that digital assets now move almost in perfect tandem with traditional equities during periods of market stress. Even more telling is the 88 per cent correlation with gold, traditionally considered the ultimate safe haven during geopolitical crises. This suggests that investors are treating crypto as a risk asset rather than a hedge, liquidating positions across the board as they seek to reduce exposure to volatile markets. The implication is profound for those who believed cryptocurrency would serve as a portfolio diversifier during times of global instability.

Ethereum faced particular headwinds during this downturn, falling 3.65 per cent as asset-specific pressures compounded the broader market weakness. The cancellation of Ether Machine’s planned US$1.5B Nasdaq listing removed a significant vote of confidence in the institutional adoption of Ethereum-based ventures. Large treasury sales by entities like Trend Research added further selling pressure, suggesting that even sophisticated institutional players are reducing their exposure amid the uncertainty. Ethereum’s ability to hold the US$2,100 to US$2,200 support zone has become critical for the broader altcoin market, as a break below this level could trigger additional cascading liquidations across smaller cryptocurrencies.

The timing of this geopolitical crisis could not be worse for risk assets. Wall Street is shifting its focus to Q1 earnings season, with analysts projecting profit growth of roughly 12 per cent, marking the weakest performance since mid-2025. Goldman Sachs kicks off the major financial reporting cycle today, and investors will scrutinise every word for indications of how the banking sector is navigating the twin challenges of geopolitical instability and persistent inflation concerns. The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings also begin this week, with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warning of potential downgrades to global growth forecasts due to the ongoing conflict. This confluence of negative catalysts creates a challenging environment for any sustained market recovery.

Looking ahead, the cryptocurrency market faces several critical inflexion points that will determine whether this decline represents a temporary setback or the beginning of a deeper correction. The SEC and CFTC roundtable on the CLARITY Act scheduled for April 16 could provide regulatory clarity that stabilises market sentiment, though investors should not expect transformative announcements from what is likely to be a preliminary discussion.

From a technical perspective, the market is currently testing the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$2.42T. Holding above the US$2.39T level, which represents the 38.2 per cent retracement, is crucial for short-term stability. A break below US$2.34T would signal that deeper correction risks are materialising, potentially opening the door to further downside.

The path forward hinges on two primary factors: whether geopolitical tensions subside and whether regulatory developments provide reassurance to institutional investors. A de-escalation in the Middle East or renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran could trigger a relief rally across risk assets.

Analysts warn that supply disruptions in the energy market will persist even if a ceasefire holds, meaning inflation pressures may remain elevated for longer than markets currently anticipate. This creates a challenging environment where even positive geopolitical news may not be sufficient to drive a sustained recovery if macroeconomic fundamentals continue to deteriorate.

Investors should monitor several key indicators in the coming days. Price action around the US$2.42T pivot level will reveal whether buyers are willing to step in at current valuations. Any news flow from the April 16 regulatory event could provide short-term catalysts, though the market has become increasingly sceptical of regulatory promises. Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin will indicate whether altcoin-specific pressures are abating or intensifying. The ability of traditional equity markets to stabilise despite ongoing geopolitical tensions will also influence crypto market sentiment, given the high correlation between these asset classes.

The current market environment demands caution and discipline from investors. The coordinated sell-off across cryptocurrencies, equities, and commodities demonstrates that no asset class exists in isolation during periods of systemic stress. Those who viewed cryptocurrency as a hedge against traditional market volatility have received a stark reminder that digital assets remain firmly embedded in the global financial system, subject to the same macroeconomic forces that drive traditional markets.

The coming weeks will test whether the crypto market can establish support at current levels or whether further downside awaits as geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties continue to unfold. Market participants must remain vigilant, focusing on concrete data rather than speculative narratives, as the intersection of geopolitics, regulation, and institutional behaviour continues to shape the trajectory of digital assets in an increasingly interconnected global economy.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-alarming-reason-crypto-now-moves-like-gold-but-falls-like-stocks-20260413/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Beyond the US$70K level: Why Bitcoin’s real test isn’t price yet

Beyond the US$70K level: Why Bitcoin’s real test isn’t price yet

Bitcoin’s ability to hold above US$70K while ETF outflows cooled provided the essential foundation. The Fear and Greed Index resting at a neutral 45 signalled neither panic nor euphoria, conditions that often precede sharp reversals. This equilibrium allowed capital to rotate with confidence into broader crypto assets without the spectre of a Bitcoin-led collapse hanging over traders. I see this stability as evidence that the market now prices in institutional participation without becoming enslaved to it. Bitcoin steadies, and the ecosystem breathes.

Bitcoin’s resilience functioned as more than a price level. It served as a psychological anchor for a market still learning to decouple from traditional finance while remaining tethered to macroeconomic currents. When Bitcoin steadies above critical support, it creates space for experimentation and risk-taking elsewhere in the ecosystem. The fact that this stability occurred amid ongoing ETF flow volatility demonstrates that institutional participation, while influential, no longer dictates every intraday move.

Retail and sophisticated derivatives traders alike interpreted Bitcoin’s strength as a green light to explore opportunities beyond the largest-cap assets. This dynamic underscores a healthy evolution where Bitcoin serves as digital gold and market bellwether without stifling innovation in adjacent protocols and tokens.

The rally’s amplification came from two interconnected forces. First, speculative capital chased explosive moves in low-capitalisation tokens. Alaya Governance Token surged 94.5 per cent while RaveDAO climbed 235.4 per cent , gains fuelled by derivatives activity and social media momentum. These moves reflect a familiar pattern where risk appetite returns, capital seeks asymmetric opportunities, and narratives form around emerging projects.

Second, and equally important, crypto maintained a 92 per cent correlation with the Nasdaq-100 ETF, QQQ. This tight linkage means digital assets continue to ride the same macro waves as technology equities, particularly sensitivity to interest rate expectations and liquidity conditions.

On April 10, 2026, US markets extended gains with the S&P 500 rising 0.62 per cent to 6,824.66, the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.83 per cent to 22,822.42, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 0.58 per cent to close at 48,185.80. The VIX volatility index fell 7.37 per cent to 19.49, signalling reduced anxiety among equity traders. Crypto’s participation in this broader risk-on move was not coincidental but structural.

This correlation cuts both ways. When macro sentiment improves, as it did on hopes of geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East and steady labour market data, crypto benefits from the same liquidity flows that lift technology stocks. This linkage also means crypto remains vulnerable to shifts in Federal Reserve policy or unexpected economic data. The projected advance in CPI inflation data looms as a potential catalyst for volatility.

Commodity markets reflected similar crosscurrents, with US crude settling near US$98 per barrel amid hopes of a de-escalation, while Brent crude held at US$96.71. Gold rose to US$4,790.90 per ounce as a hedge against uncertainty, and the US Dollar Index slipped 0.51 per cent to 99.13, providing modest tailwinds for risk assets, including crypto. For those of us who believe in the long-term promise of decentralised systems, this macro tether represents both a reality of the current transition period and a reminder that true independence for digital assets requires deeper structural decoupling.

The market faces a clear inflexion point. Technically, the total crypto market capitalisation confronts resistance at the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of US$2.49T. The seven-day Relative Strength Index reading of 80.72 suggests short-term overbought conditions that often precede consolidation or pullbacks. Bitcoin’s ability to hold above US$70K remains the primary support for the broader complex. A sustained break above US$72K could reignite bullish momentum across altcoins. A failure to hold US$70K might trigger a retreat toward the US$2.39T support zone.

Beyond price levels, regulatory developments warrant close attention. The SEC’s CLARITY Act roundtable scheduled for April 16 could provide clarity or confusion depending on the tone and substance of discussions. From my perspective, having engaged with policymakers on blockchain frameworks, I view regulatory progress as essential for sustainable growth, but I remain sceptical of approaches that prioritise control over innovation.

The current market posture warrants cautious optimism. Bitcoin’s foundational strength, combined with speculative enthusiasm in altcoins, creates a constructive backdrop. The confluence of technical resistance, overbought signals, and macro uncertainty demands discipline. For investors and builders alike, this environment rewards selectivity.

Projects with genuine utility, transparent tokenomics, and active communities are better positioned to withstand volatility than those riding pure speculation. The 92 per cent correlation with tech equities reminds us that crypto does not operate in a vacuum. Liquidity conditions, rate expectations, and geopolitical developments will continue to influence price action in the near term. The longer arc points toward gradual decoupling as digital asset infrastructure matures and use cases expand beyond financial speculation.

Mainstream narratives often oversimplify crypto market moves as mere risk-on or risk-off plays. The reality proves more nuanced. Bitcoin’s resilience above US$70K despite ETF outflows suggests underlying demand that transcends short-term flow data. The explosive moves in tokens like RaveDAO reflect the enduring appeal of asymmetric opportunities in emerging ecosystems.

These gains occur within a macro framework that remains rate-sensitive. This duality defines the current moment. Traders must navigate technical levels and sentiment indicators while keeping one eye on Federal Reserve communications and geopolitical developments. Builders must focus on creating real value that can sustain projects beyond the next market cycle.

The path forward likely hinges on whether Bitcoin can convert its current stability into decisive upward momentum. A break above US$72K with conviction could propel the total market cap toward the US$2.49T resistance. Success at that level would signal a shift from cautious accumulation to broader participation.

Failure to clear these hurdles might see capital rotate back into Bitcoin as a relatively safe haven within crypto or into traditional assets if macro headwinds intensify. ETF flow data will remain a crucial gauge of institutional sentiment, particularly after a rally that has pushed short-term indicators into overbought territory. Like I said yesterday, the April 16 regulatory roundtable could serve as a catalyst if it produces constructive dialogue, or as a source of volatility if expectations diverge sharply from outcomes.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j