March 22nd, 2025

Building Trust: The Foundation of Web3’s Future

During my recent fireside chat at Hong Kong Consensus 2025, I emphasized a truth that many in our industry need to hear: Building communities is far more challenging than it appears.

In 2018, when blockchain technology was still relatively unknown to the mainstream, basic incentives like airdrops were enough to attract attention. Today’s landscape has fundamentally changed. You can’t just throw airdrops at people and expect them to stay. Communities need to be built on trust, value and a long-term vision.

What our industry needs isn’t communities that come for the incentives and leave the next day. We need communities that stay because they believe in what we’re building. This shift requires a complete rethinking of how we approach community engagement.

The role of exchanges in this ecosystem cannot be overstated. As gatekeepers to the crypto economy, exchanges must prioritize supporting projects that build loyal communities rather than chasing short-term gains. This means carefully vetting projects and ensuring they have sustainable roadmaps.

The future of Web3 demands unity. Exchanges, established projects and smaller initiatives must work together, especially in emerging markets like Russia, Kenya and Brazil that offer immense potential. Collaboration, not competition, will unlock new opportunities for growth.

Transparency is non-negotiable in this new era. Users are asking tough questions about how exchanges operate, particularly regarding listing fees and selection criteria. This scrutiny is healthy and necessary. Transparency builds trust, and trust is the foundation of any successful community.

Security and accessibility represent the two critical pillars for exchanges moving forward. Users rightfully demand platforms that offer robust protection for their assets and seamless solutions to move their funds safely and efficiently. Exchanges that fail to deliver on these fronts will find themselves increasingly irrelevant.

The phenomenon of meme coins presents a fascinating case study in community building. While often dismissed by traditionalists, these projects serve as valuable “door openers” that attract new users to the space. However, their success depends entirely on strong community backing and a clear evolution path.

A sustainable meme project typically begins with community engagement around a shared interest or joke, gradually introduces utility and eventually evolves into something more substantial, potentially including merchandise or broader business applications. Without this progression, most will fail.

Too many Web3 projects suffer from poor leadership and no clear plans for sustainability. They focus on boosting short-term sentiment without delivering meaningful results. This approach is unsustainable and damages the credibility of our entire industry.

Your community should work for their own collective success. When users are genuinely invested in a project’s future, they become advocates, not just participants. This organic growth creates resilience against market volatility and competitor challenges.

I call on exchanges to prioritize quality over quantity when listing projects. Instead of allocating resources to influencers who drive temporary traffic, invest in projects building something meaningful and sustainable. This shift in focus will benefit the entire ecosystem.

As Web3 continues to mature, those who prioritize value and trust will emerge as leaders. The future belongs not to those who can create the most hype, but to those who can build communities based on shared values and genuine utility.

The challenges ahead are significant, but so are the opportunities. By focusing on transparency, collaboration and long-term value creation, we can realize the transformative potential of Web3 technology and build a more inclusive digital economy.

Source: https://yellow.com/news/building-trust-the-foundation-of-web3s-future

Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com

j j j

March 21st, 2025

Global economy on edge: What it signals for investors amid economic uncertainty

The global financial landscape today, March 21, 2025, is a complex tapestry woven with threads of uncertainty, cautious optimism, and shifting economic priorities. Let’s unpack this and offer my perspective on what’s driving these dynamics, where things might be headed, and what it all means for investors, policymakers, and everyday people keeping an eye on their financial futures.

Global risk sentiment and central bank ambiguity

The global risk sentiment being described as “tentative” feels like an apt reflection of the moment we’re in. Central bank meetings, which are typically a cornerstone for market stability, seem to have left us with more ambiguity than clarity. It’s not uncommon for these gatherings—whether it’s the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, or others—to set the tone for monetary policy expectations, influencing everything from interest rates to currency strength.

But when they raise “more questions than answers,” as the Market Wrap notes, it signals a lack of consensus or a hesitancy to commit to bold moves. Perhaps central bankers are grappling with the same uncertainties as the rest of us: inflationary pressures that refuse to fully subside, geopolitical tensions exacerbated by trade policies, and a global economy that’s still finding its footing post-pandemic.

My take is that this ambiguity is less about indecision and more about a deliberate wait-and-see approach. Central banks are likely holding their cards close, waiting for clearer signals from corporate earnings and trade developments before making significant policy shifts.

Corporate earnings, tariffs, and market reactions

Speaking of corporate earnings, they’re poised to be the next big litmus test for the markets. Investors are hungry for guidance, and rightly so. With tariff fears casting a long shadow, the performance of major companies could either bolster confidence or deepen the unease.

In the US, where the MSCI US index slipped by 0.2 per cent, the energy sector’s modest 0.4 per cent gain stands out as a bright spot. This uptick aligns with the rise in Brent crude prices to US$75 per barrel, fuelled by OPEC+’s new schedule for oil output cuts.

It’s a reminder that energy markets remain a critical driver of sentiment, especially as supply constraints—like the US sanctions on a Chinese refinery tied to Iranian oil—tighten the screws further. For American investors, the upcoming earnings season will be a chance to see if companies can navigate these headwinds, particularly with new tariffs looming on the horizon.

Those tariffs, announced by US President Donald Trump to take effect on April 2, are a game-changer. The promise of both broad reciprocal tariffs and sector-specific measures suggests a continuation of his administration’s aggressive trade stance.

From my perspective, this move is less about economic protectionism in a vacuum and more about geopolitical leverage. Trump’s strategy seems to hinge on using tariffs as a bargaining chip—pressuring trading partners into concessions while signaling strength to domestic audiences. The timing, just over a week from now, adds urgency to the mix.

Markets hate uncertainty, and with Asian equities already showing mixed responses and US equity futures pointing to a flat open, it’s clear that investors are bracing for turbulence. The delay of the European Union’s proposed tariff on American whiskey this week feels like a small reprieve, perhaps a diplomatic nod to avoid escalating tensions further, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the broader tariff storm brewing.

In China, the focus on bellwethers like Xiaomi Corp. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. is particularly telling. These tech giants have been at the heart of China’s recent stock surge, a rally that’s defied global headwinds to some extent. Investors are now asking whether this momentum is sustainable or if it’s a house of cards built on speculative exuberance.

My view is that China’s market resilience reflects a mix of domestic policy support and a pivot by companies to diversify away from US-centric supply chains—a direct response to past tariff pressures. Xiaomi’s push into emerging markets and Tencent’s dominance in digital ecosystems could provide the earnings firepower needed to keep the rally alive. But if these reports disappoint, it might expose cracks in China’s economic facade, especially as US sanctions and tariffs tighten the noose on key sectors like refining.

Financial indicators and the energy-crypto divide

Shifting to the financial indicators, the US Treasury yields dropping—with the 10-year at 4.24 per cent and the 2-year at 3.96 per cent—suggests a flight to safety amid the uncertainty. Lower yields typically signal that investors are seeking the relative security of government bonds over riskier assets, a trend reinforced by the US Dollar index’s 0.4 per cent gain as it consolidates recent losses. Gold holding firm above US$3,000 per ounce further underscores this cautious mood—it’s the classic safe-haven play.

Yet, there’s a paradox here: Brent crude’s 1.7 per cent rise indicates that not all risk assets are out of favour. My interpretation is that we’re seeing a bifurcated market—energy and commodities holding up due to supply-side dynamics, while equities and bonds reflect broader trepidation about growth prospects.

Now, let’s dive into the cryptocurrency angle, which adds another layer of intrigue. Bitcoin’s market sentiment hitting a two-year low, as per CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index of 20, is a stark warning. This index, blending ten metrics like network activity and investor behaviour, paints a picture of a “weak environment” unlikely to support a sustained rally.

Historically, Bitcoin needs a score above 60 to fuel significant price surges, and prolonged periods below 40 align with bear markets. As someone who’s tracked crypto’s rollercoaster ride, I see this as a natural ebb in the cycle. The euphoria of past bull runs—often tied to macroeconomic stimulus or institutional adoption—has given way to a sober reality.

Regulatory scrutiny, energy cost debates, and now tariff-induced economic uncertainty could be dampening enthusiasm. For Bitcoin holders, this might feel like a gut punch, but it’s not necessarily a death knell. Markets move in waves, and a bearish phase could set the stage for a stronger rebound if fundamentals like adoption or halving effects kick in later.

Ethereum, meanwhile, offers a glimmer of hope amid the gloom. Its price hovering around US$1,970, with a key support level at US$1,861, suggests resilience. The nine per cent recovery earlier this week, followed by a 3.5 per cent dip, shows volatility but also potential. If that US$1,861 support holds, a push toward the March 7 high of US$2,258 isn’t out of the question. The technicals back this up: the RSI climbing to 40 from an oversold 30 indicates fading bearish momentum, though it needs to break 50 for a confirmed recovery.

The MACD’s bullish crossover and rising green histograms above zero add to the case for upward strength. From my standpoint, Ethereum’s outlook hinges on broader market sentiment and its ability to differentiate itself from Bitcoin’s struggles. If tariff fears ease or corporate earnings surprise to the upside, ETH could ride that wave. But a break below US$1,861 would open the door to a drop toward US$1,700—a level that could test the resolve of even the most ardent HODLers.

The interconnectedness of markets

Stepping back, what strikes me most about this Market Wrap is the interconnectedness of it all. Tariffs don’t just affect trade balances; they ripple through equity markets, commodity prices, and even cryptocurrencies. Central bank hesitancy amplifies the noise, leaving corporate earnings as the next beacon.

My point of view is cautiously pragmatic: we’re in a transitional phase where old playbooks—whether for stocks, bonds, or crypto—are being rewritten. Investors should watch China’s tech giants for signs of durability, lean into energy’s relative strength, and brace for tariff-driven volatility. For crypto enthusiasts, patience might be the best strategy—Bitcoin’s malaise and Ethereum’s teetering recovery suggest a market in purgatory, awaiting a catalyst.

In conclusion, the global economy today feels like a tightrope walk. The stakes are high, and the safety net is fraying. I see my role as cutting through the noise to spotlight the data and trends that matter. Right now, that means recognising the weight of tariffs, the pivotal role of earnings, and the fragile state of risk assets like crypto.

We’re not in freefall, but we’re not on solid ground either—April 2, when those tariffs hit, could be the tipping point that defines the next chapter.

Source: https://e27.co/global-economy-on-edge-what-it-signals-for-investors-amid-economic-uncertainty-20250321/

Anndy Lian

www.anndy.com

j j j

March 20th, 2025

FOMC lits a spark: US equities, treasuries, and cryptocurrencies all riding the waves

The global financial landscape has been buzzing with activity following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the US Federal Reserve opted to keep benchmark interest rates steady within the 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent range, a decision that was broadly anticipated by markets.

This move, coupled with a significant reduction in the pace of quantitative tightening (QT)—slashing the monthly redemption of US Treasury securities from US$25 billion to US$5 billion—has injected a dose of optimism into US equities, propelling a rally that saw the MSCI US index climb by 1.1 per cent.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his post-meeting press conference, struck a cautious yet steady tone, acknowledging the swirling uncertainties tied to President Donald Trump’s sweeping policy shifts while emphasising that the central bank is in no rush to tweak borrowing costs.

Powell’s message was clear: the Fed can afford to wait for the dust to settle on these policy changes before making any bold moves. This measured approach seemed to resonate with investors, who found comfort in the Fed’s updated projections and its handling of inflation and growth forecasts.

Diving into the numbers, the Fed’s dot plot—a key indicator of future rate expectations—held steady, signalling two rate cuts anticipated for the year, with no notable shift in dispersion among committee members. However, the Fed did adjust its economic outlook, trimming the median growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7 per cent from 2.1 per cent, a nod to potential headwinds, while nudging up the median inflation forecast to 2.8 per cent from 2.5 per cent.

Markets, however, latched onto Powell’s reassurance that the uptick in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) projection is confined to 2025 and likely transitory. This distinction quelled fears of entrenched inflation, allowing risk sentiment to advance.

The immediate market reaction was telling: equities surged by the end of Powell’s presser, US Treasuries flipped course with the 2-year yield dipping below 4 per cent and the 10-year yield shedding 4 basis points to 4.24 per cent, while the Dollar Index edged up 0.2 per cent. Gold, ever the barometer of economic unease, rose 0.4 per cent to a record US$3,048 per ounce, and Brent crude ticked up 0.3 per cent to US$71 per barrel. These movements paint a picture of a market buoyed by easier financial conditions yet still hedging against uncertainty.

Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) mirrored the Fed’s steady hand, holding interest rates unchanged as expected. Governor Kazuo Ueda offered a cautiously optimistic take, noting that wage hike momentum remains on track—a critical factor for Japan’s long battle against deflation—but tempered this with concerns over US trade policies, a clear nod to the potential ripple effects of Trump’s agenda.

Similarly, Bank Indonesia followed suit, keeping its benchmark rates steady, aligning with market expectations. Asian equity indices, however, showed a mixed response in early trading, reflecting the region’s sensitivity to both US developments and local dynamics. Meanwhile, US equity index futures pointed to a higher open, suggesting that Wall Street’s rally might have legs yet.

The cryptocurrency market, often a bellwether for risk appetite, didn’t miss the beat either. Bitcoin soared past US$86,800 on Wednesday, a nearly five per cent jump, fuelled by the Fed’s signals of looser financial conditions and growing investor bets on a liquidity-driven rally.

The Fed’s decision to slow the runoff of its US$6.8 trillion balance sheet—capping Treasury redemptions at US$5 billion per month—aims to avert disruptions in funding markets, especially as debt ceiling tensions loom large. This dovish tilt has weakened the US dollar, which posted its third-largest three-day drop since 2015, while Treasury yields and bond market volatility have tumbled.

In the crypto space, the ETH/BTC trading pair ticked up from 0.23 to 0.24, a sign that investors are leaning into riskier assets like Ether over Bitcoin’s relative safety. Ether’s rise, though lacking an immediate catalyst, comes as the Ethereum network gears up for its Pectra upgrade, a major update set to roll out over 20 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs). These include EIP-7702, enhancing smart account functionality, and EIP-7251, which boosts validator staking limits—moves that promise to improve scalability and user experience, potentially stoking further interest in Ether.

From my perspective, the Fed’s latest stance is a masterstroke of pragmatism. By holding rates steady and dialling back QT, Powell & Co. are threading the needle between supporting growth and keeping inflation in check, all while navigating the wild card of Trump’s policy shifts. The market’s upbeat response—equities popping, yields dropping, and risk assets like Bitcoin and Ether surging—suggests that investors are interpreting this as a green light for risk-taking, at least in the near term.

The Fed’s acknowledgment of slower growth and higher inflation in 2025, paired with its “transitory” caveat, strikes me as a calculated effort to manage expectations without spooking markets. It’s a delicate dance, and so far, the Fed seems to be leading with confidence.

That said, the muted revisions to the dot plot—still pointing to two cuts—feel a tad optimistic given the uncertainties Powell himself flagged. If Trump’s policies (think tariffs, tax cuts, or deregulation) ignite inflation or disrupt trade, the Fed might find its hands tied, forced to choose between rate hikes that could choke growth or holding pat and risking credibility on inflation.

Globally, the BOJ’s steady stance feels like a missed opportunity. Japan’s economy could use a jolt, and with wage hikes gaining traction, a slight nudge on rates might have signalled more conviction in its reflationary push. Ueda’s caution about US trade policies is valid—Trump’s “America First” rhetoric could slam Japan’s export-driven economy—but it also underscores how interconnected these central bank decisions are.

Back in the US, the crypto rally is a fascinating subplot. Bitcoin’s surge past US$86,800 and Ether’s uptick reflect not just Fed-driven liquidity but a broader shift in investor psychology. The Pectra upgrade could be a game-changer for Ethereum, making it more competitive with newer blockchains, though its lack of an immediate trigger suggests this is more sentiment-driven than fundamentals-based for now.

In sum, the FOMC’s moves have lit a spark under global risk sentiment, with US equities, Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies all riding the wave of easier financial conditions.

The Fed’s cautious optimism, paired with its QT slowdown, has given markets room to breathe, even as it braces for the unknown of Trump’s policy fallout. Asia’s mixed response and the BOJ’s conservatism highlight the uneven global picture, but for now, the US is setting the tone.

Whether this rally has staying power will hinge on how those uncertainties play out—and whether the Fed’s wait-and-see approach holds up under pressure. For investors, it’s a moment to savor the upside while keeping an eye on the horizon.

Source: https://e27.co/fomc-lits-a-spark-us-equities-treasuries-and-cryptocurrencies-all-riding-the-waves-20250320/