Posts from the 'Op-Ed' Category

Dow, Nasdaq, and crypto all slip as treasury yields climb on delayed cut bets

Dow, Nasdaq, and crypto all slip as treasury yields climb on delayed cut bets

We took a hit from recent economic data that stirred up doubts about the timing of interest rate cuts. Investors faced a mix of signals from the US economy, which showed strength in some areas but left questions about inflation and labour trends. The Labour Department noted that initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000 for the week ending September 20, beating what analysts expected.

At the same time, revised figures indicated the economy expanded at a 3.8 per cent pace in the second quarter, up from the earlier estimate of 3.3 per cent, thanks to robust consumer spending and business investments. These numbers painted a picture of resilience, yet they prompted traders to dial back bets on quick rate reductions.

The odds of a cut in December dropped by 20 per cent, and for January 2026, they fell by 30 per cent. Attention now turns to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index set for release on Friday, which investors see as a key gauge for the Federal Reserve’s next moves on rates.

Wall Street pulls back as yields climb

Wall Street extended its slide for a third day on Thursday, with the Dow Jones dipping 0.38 per cent, the S&P 500 losing 0.50 per cent, and the Nasdaq also down 0.50 per cent. Fading hopes for imminent rate cuts fuelled the pullback, as participants adjusted portfolios amid the uncertainty.

Treasury yields climbed, reflecting expectations of rates staying higher for longer. The 10-year yield added 2.3 basis points to close at 4.170 per cent, while the two-year yield jumped 5.1 basis points to 3.655 per cent. The dollar strengthened, with its index rising 0.69 per cent to 98.553, bolstered by the solid economic readings.

Gold edged up 0.4 per cent to US$3,749.44 per ounce, drawing support from increased physical demand despite the dollar’s gain. Brent crude oil ticked higher by 0.2 per cent to US$69.42 per barrel, holding steady amid global energy flows.

Asian stocks closed mixed on Thursday due to some profit-taking, and they showed varied performance in early Friday trading. Futures pointed to a lower open for US equities, suggesting the cautious mood would carry over.

Crypto market hit by liquidations

The cryptocurrency market endured a sharp 3.01 per cent drop over the past 24 hours, building on a 7.22 per cent decline over the last week. Several factors converged to drive this downturn, including wavering Federal Reserve signals, massive liquidations totalling US$1.5 billion, and breakdowns in key technical levels.

The Fed’s initial rate cut on September 17 sparked a brief rally, but Chair Powell’s comments on September 24 about potential labour risks and persistent inflation flipped the script, leading to risk-averse behaviour across assets. Traders currently assign a 91.9 per cent probability to another cut in October, according to Bitget News, but the crypto sector’s growing tie to traditional markets amplified the fallout.

Its correlation with the Nasdaq-100 reached +0.65 over the last day, making digital assets particularly exposed to broader economic jitters. This setup left crypto in a vulnerable spot, as participants weighed whether monetary easing could counter slowdown fears.

Leverage and technical weakness amplify the sell-off

Liquidations added fuel to the fire, with US$1.5 billion wiped out between September 22 and 24, marking the biggest such event since December 2024. Assets like Solana, down 6.2 per cent, NEAR, off 8.5 per cent, and memecoins such as Aster, plunging 23 per cent, bore the brunt as long positions unraveled.

Open interest climbed 9.05 per cent in the last 24 hours, hinting at excessive leverage that backfired. In thinner markets for altcoins, these forced sales created a vicious cycle, pushing prices lower and triggering more exits. Technically, the overall crypto market capitalisation slipped below its seven-day simple moving average of US$3.89 trillion and the pivotal US$3.76 trillion mark.

The 14-day relative strength index hit 26.5, indicating oversold territory, though without signs of bullish divergence to suggest a turnaround yet. Algorithmic trading and institutional players likely sped up the sell-off once supports gave way, hitting high-volatility coins hardest.

The bigger picture: Macro links and market fragility

From my personal view, this episode highlights how tightly intertwined crypto has become with macroeconomic forces, a shift that brings both opportunities and pitfalls. A strong US economy, as evidenced by the jobless claims and GDP revisions, should theoretically support risk assets over time, but the immediate reaction underscores a market fixated on short-term Fed cues.

Crypto’s evolution from a niche alternative to a correlated play on tech and growth means it amplifies Nasdaq moves, which works well in bull runs but exposes it during pullbacks. The liquidations reveal ongoing issues with leverage in derivatives, where euphoria builds positions that crumble under pressure, often dragging spot prices down.

Technically, the oversold readings offer a glimmer of hope for a rebound, especially if Bitcoin holds its ground above US$97,000 to US$104,000, aligning with its 200-day and 365-day moving averages. Bitcoin dominance at 58.16 per cent suggests it could lead any recovery, potentially allowing altcoins to catch up if macro fears ease.

What comes next: Data to watch

Looking ahead, the Personal Consumption Expenditures data on Friday could pivot sentiment if it shows cooling inflation, reopening the door for cuts. Upcoming PMI figures and further jobless claims will test whether the labor market’s strength persists or softens, influencing risk appetite.

In crypto, eyes remain on Bitcoin’s US$100,000 threshold and Ethereum’s US$3,400 level, as breaks lower might spark another liquidation spiral. If altcoins manage to break from Bitcoin’s lead, it could signal a maturing market less dependent on the flagship asset.

Overall, the current fragility stems from this confluence of doubts, deleveraging, and chart failures, but history shows such dips often precede bounces when fundamentals align. Investors would do well to stay vigilant on Fed communications and monitor for stabilisation signs, as the path forward depends on balancing economic vigour with policy support.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/dow-nasdaq-and-crypto-all-slip-as-treasury-yields-climb-on-delayed-cut-bets-20250926/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Circular capital: Inside the closed-loop ecosystem propelling (and distorting) the AI boom

Circular capital: Inside the closed-loop ecosystem propelling (and distorting) the AI boom

The artificial intelligence sector is experiencing an unprecedented surge, driven by what many observers describe as an arms race among tech giants and startups alike. Major players like Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Oracle are pouring billions into promising AI ventures such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Scale AI, creating intricate funding ecosystems that blur the lines between investment and self-serving commerce.

These startups, in turn, funnel much of that capital back into the investors’ own products, including cloud computing services, specialised chips, and data infrastructure. This circular flow of money strengthens the positions of a handful of dominant companies while raising serious questions about competition and the efficient use of resources in a field still in its early stages.

Circular capital loops

This setup resembles a high-stakes poker game where the house always wins, potentially stifling innovation from smaller players and inflating valuations beyond sustainable levels. The industry appears to operate on the belief that AI could evolve into a winner-take-all market, justifying these closed loops as a necessary hedge against being outpaced.

Recent reports indicate OpenAI’s valuation has climbed to around 324 billion dollars, with Anthropic not far behind at 178 billion dollars, figures that underscore the rapid escalation in private market enthusiasm. Scale AI, meanwhile, maintains a valuation near 29 billion dollars, often tied more to projected spending on infrastructure than to immediate revenue streams.

Regulatory scrutiny mounts

Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying as these dynamics unfold, with authorities expressing growing alarm over market concentration and potential antitrust issues. Nvidia, commanding over 80 per cent of the AI chip market, faces investigations from the US Department of Justice regarding its acquisition of Run:ai, a move that could further entrench its dominance.

The Financial Stability Board has issued warnings about the systemic risks posed by AI’s heavy reliance on a limited number of infrastructure providers, highlighting vulnerabilities in areas like cybersecurity and model governance that could cascade through the financial system. In my view, these concerns are well-founded, as the concentration of power in a few hands echoes past tech bubbles where over-dependence on key suppliers led to widespread disruptions.

Capital allocation risks

The circular capital loops exacerbate this, as seen in deals where OpenAI commits to massive spending on Oracle’s cloud services following investments from similar tech behemoths. While analysts remain optimistic about AI’s transformative potential in the long term, they caution against short-term returns hampered by regulatory hurdles and inefficient capital allocation.

The risk of overvaluation looms large, with private AI firms’ worth often predicated on future infrastructure expenditures rather than proven profitability, a pattern that could precipitate corrections if growth expectations falter.

Macro market backdrop

Shifting to broader economic indicators, global risk sentiment stays subdued as markets await new developments amid worries ranging from labor market slowdowns to persistent inflation. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US initial jobless claims data, with estimates around 233,000 following last week’s 231,000, a figure that could sway perceptions of the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

The Swiss National Bank recently held its policy rate at 0.00 per cent, aligning with expectations and reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing in the face of stable inflation. Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.37 per cent at 46,121, the S&P 500 off 0.28 per cent at 6,638, and the Nasdaq declining 0.34 per cent to 22,498, driven by retreats in technology stocks amid valuation concerns.

Wall Street and commodities

Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year note at 4.147 per cent and the 2-year at 3.604 per cent, signalling mixed expectations for interest rate paths. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.6 per cent to 97.873, while gold prices dipped 0.7 per cent to 3,736 dollars per ounce, pulling back from recent highs as the dollar gained ground. Brent crude rose 2.5 per cent to settle at 69.31 dollars per barrel, buoyed by supply concerns from ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine impacting Russian oil facilities.

Asian equities showed mixed performance, with Chinese markets buoyed by AI and tech optimism, though early trading today indicated continued variability. US equity futures point to a higher open, suggesting some rebound potential. In my opinion, this muted sentiment reflects a market grappling with uncertainty, where AI hype provides sporadic lifts but broader economic signals like job data and yields temper enthusiasm, potentially setting the stage for volatility if inflation proves stickier than anticipated.

Crypto under pressure

Turning to cryptocurrencies, contrary to chatter among some circles that altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, the data paints a different picture of weakening momentum for alternatives. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index stands at 68 out of 100, still in altcoin territory but down 4.23 per cent over the past 24 hours from last week’s 77, indicating a cooling trend.

Bitcoin’s dominance has risen to 57.97 per cent, up 0.25 points in the last day, as capital shifts toward the flagship cryptocurrency amid altcoin retreats. Ethereum, a bellwether for the sector, has fallen 11.6 per cent weekly, with Chainlink down 11.2 per cent and Cardano dropping 12.0 per cent, underscoring broader underperformance.

Derivatives markets reinforce this caution, with altcoin funding rates turning negative at -0.00035835 per cent and open interest declining 4.1 per cent in 24 hours, compared to Bitcoin’s more resilient metrics.

Investor takeaway

From my standpoint, this shift signals a risk-off environment in crypto, where Bitcoin’s perceived safety draws inflows during uncertainty, much like gold in traditional markets. Historically, Altcoin Season Index readings dipping below 70 often herald Bitcoin dominance rebounds, and current social discussions around Ethereum’s high fees and upcoming upgrades like Pectra in Q4 2025 add to the drag.

Traders unwinding leveraged positions faster in altcoins than in Bitcoin further erodes confidence in near-term rallies for alternatives, suggesting investors should prioritise Bitcoin amid this rotation.

Overall, the interplay between AI’s frenetic funding cycles, emerging regulatory pressures, subdued macro conditions, and crypto’s Bitcoin-centric tilt illustrates a financial landscape fraught with opportunity and peril.

I believe the AI arms race, while fuelling innovation, risks over-investment that could echo the dot-com era’s excesses if not tempered by competition and oversight. Investors would do well to diversify beyond concentrated bets, monitoring systemic risks and market signals closely to navigate what may prove a pivotal juncture for technology-driven growth.

 

Source: https://e27.co/circular-capital-inside-the-closed-loop-ecosystem-propelling-and-distorting-the-ai-boom-20250925/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Markets on edge: Fed ambiguity fuels risk-off mood as Aster surges amid crypto bloodbath

Markets on edge: Fed ambiguity fuels risk-off mood as Aster surges amid crypto bloodbath

Global markets showed signs of caution this week as investors digested conflicting messages from Federal Reserve officials on future interest rate moves.

Chair Jerome Powell emphasised uncertainties in the labour market and inflation during his recent comments, avoiding clear guidance on a potential October cut while highlighting ongoing challenges for policymakers. This ambiguity contributed to a retreat in risk sentiment, with Wall Street closing lower on Tuesday amid concerns over tech stock valuations.

Wall Street and commodities react

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.19 per cent, the S&P 500 fell 0.55 per cent, and the Nasdaq declined 0.95 per cent. Treasury yields eased slightly, with the 10-year note down four basis points to 4.11 per cent and the two-year yield slipping one basis point to 3.59 per cent.

The US dollar index held steady with a minor dip of 0.08 per cent to 97.26, reflecting limited movement amid the mixed Fed outlook. Gold prices rose 0.5 per cent to US$3,764.59 per ounce, drawing safe-haven buying as geopolitical tensions simmered and expectations for a rate cut lingered.

Brent crude oil rose 1.6 per cent to US$67.63 per barrel, supported by disruptions to Russian supply from Ukrainian strikes and escalating NATO frictions. Asian equities opened weaker today, though US futures pointed to a modest rebound at the open.

Crypto extends risk-off decline

The cryptocurrency market mirrored this broader risk-off tone, shedding 0.64 per cent over the past 24 hours and extending a seven-day slide of 4.46 per cent. This downturn closely aligned with equity movements, as evidenced by a strong correlation of 0.91 with the Nasdaq-100 over the same period.

A massive liquidation event on September 22 wiped out US$1.8 billion in long positions, primarily on exchanges, triggering a cascade that erased US$150 billion from the overall crypto market cap. Ethereum bore the brunt, with over $500 million in liquidations, outpacing Bitcoin and amplifying losses across altcoins due to high leverage in those segments.

Regulatory uncertainty added fuel to the fire, as the SEC delayed approvals for altcoin ETFs, dampening investor enthusiasm and prompting a cooldown in momentum trading. Open interest across derivatives fell 3.3 per cent as traders unwound positions, signalling a broader deleveraging amid fears of further volatility.

Technical indicators painted a grim picture, with Bitcoin’s RSI dipping to 20.69, indicating extreme oversold conditions, yet rebounds remained weak, underscoring persistent risk aversion. Bitcoin tested its US$105,000 support level, and a breach could spark another 10 to 15 per cent correction, potentially dragging the market lower if global sentiment sours further.

Aster’s breakout amid market weakness

Amid this gloom, Aster emerged as a standout performer, surging 39.27 per cent in the last 24 hours and boasting an astonishing 2,376 per cent gain over seven days. This rally stemmed from the completion of its APX-to-ASTER token migration on September 22, a 1:1 swap that unlocked US$704 million in ASTER tokens for trading and injected fresh liquidity. The project, rebranded from APX Finance, drew significant attention through new exchange listings and perceived backing from Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao, often called CZ.

Whale activity intensified post-migration, with an Aster project multi-signature wallet transferring 80 million APX tokens valued at around US$132 million, further boosting trading volumes. By September 23, Aster’s market cap reached US$3.4 billion, a sharp rise fuelled by hype around its decentralised perpetual futures and spot trading platform.

Built on a multi-chain framework with support for up to 100x leverage on select pairs, Aster positioned itself as a high-yield alternative in the DeFi space, attracting traders seeking aggressive opportunities amid the broader market slump. Social media buzz amplified the momentum, with posts highlighting CZ’s strategic involvement as a bid to reclaim DeFi influence from centralised exchanges.

Aster’s rise invited inevitable comparisons to Hyperliquid, an established decentralised exchange specialising in perpetual futures on its custom Layer-1 blockchain. Hyperliquid gained traction after a viral airdrop in late 2024, coinciding with an industry-wide rally following Donald Trump’s reelection.

By August 2025, Hyperliquid surpassed Ethereum and Solana in user fee revenues, commanding a 75 to 80 per cent market share in perpetual DEX volumes at its peak. Its token, HYPE, traded at a US$15 billion market cap as of September 23, with daily volumes hitting US$200 billion and a total value locked exceeding US$670 million. Hyperliquid’s efficiency stemmed from its on-chain matching engine paired with an off-chain orderbook, enabling low-latency execution and deep liquidity for professional traders.

Community-driven initiatives, like proposals for a native stablecoin USDH backed by institutional partners such as State Street and VanEck, further solidified its ecosystem. In contrast, Aster’s US$2.5 billion market cap and US$20 billion in September volumes paled against Hyperliquid’s dominance, but it flipped the latter in daily perpetual futures volumes for three consecutive days, generating higher fees temporarily.

Innovation or hype? The road ahead

In my view, Aster’s explosive entry injects healthy competition into the perpetual DEX arena, where demand for leveraged trading remains robust despite market headwinds. Narratives labelling Aster as a Hyperliquid killer echo past hype, like Solana challenging Ethereum, but history shows room for multiple innovators rather than zero-sum outcomes. Hyperliquid’s battle-tested infrastructure, with 97 per cent of revenues funnelled into HYPE buybacks and a lean team of 11 delivering consistent upgrades, gives it a durable edge over newcomers.

Aster benefits from Binance ecosystem ties and CZ’s endorsement, potentially accelerating adoption through BNB Chain integration and higher leverage caps, but its rapid ascent carries risks of sharp reversals, as seen in on-chain data showing engineered growth patterns that may lack sustainability. Beginners should approach with caution, given the volatility inherent in fresh projects; swings can erase gains in a single candle, as skeptics on X noted.

Ultimately, both platforms could thrive if they carve distinct niches, Hyperliquid for institutional-grade perps and Aster for yield-focused DeFi plays. This dynamic might even spur broader innovation, benefiting users in a sector still recovering from deleveraging shocks.

Looking ahead, the crypto market’s fragility persists, with liquidation risks and regulatory delays capping upside. If Bitcoin holds above US$105,000 and the Fed signals a tilt dovish, a relief rally could ensue, but geopolitical uncertainties and equity correlations suggest choppy waters. Aster’s story adds intrigue, proving that even in downturns, targeted narratives can drive outsized moves, but long-term success demands more than initial hype.

 

Source: https://e27.co/markets-on-edge-fed-ambiguity-fuels-risk-off-mood-as-aster-surges-amid-crypto-bloodbath-20250924/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j