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Ethereum Layer 2: A Forensic Analysis of Growth, Challenges, and Economic Impact

Ethereum Layer 2: A Forensic Analysis of Growth, Challenges, and Economic Impact

Key Points:

– Ethereum Spot ETF Performance: Ethereum spot ETFs saw significant inflows last week, with BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH leading with $287 million and $97.28 million respectively, boosting their total assets to $4.4 billion and $1.51 billion.
– Layer 2 Controversy: The surge in ETF inflows hasn’t directly boosted Ethereum’s market performance. The Ethereum community criticizes Layer 2 networks for being “parasitic”, causing inflation by profiting from transaction fees while relying on Ethereum’s security.
– Layer 2 Sequencer Profits: Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum earn substantial profits from sequencer operations, highlighted by a $1.04 million daily revenue on February 4, with minimal cost to Ethereum, sparking debates over centralization and profit motives.
– Decentralization Challenges: Layer 2’s struggle with decentralizing sequencers is noted, with most still controlled by development teams. This central control is a significant point of contention, as sequencers are lucrative due to transaction fees, MEV, and interest.
– Base’s Sequencer Revenue: Base, part of the Ethereum network, has been accused of transferring all sequencer gains to Coinbase, with little transparency on how these profits are handled, leading to community suspicion about ETH sales.
– Vitalik’s Response: Vitalik Buterin has acknowledged the issues surrounding Layer 2’s economic models, calling for these networks to contribute back to Ethereum to ensure ETH’s value doesn’t diminish in a Layer 2-dominated ecosystem.

Ethereum Spot ETFs Surge, But Layer 2 Controversy Clouds Market Optimism
Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $420 million last week, and all nine ETFs had no net outflow. Among them, the net inflow of BlackRock’s ETHA reached 287 million U.S. dollars, allowing ETHA to exceed 4.4 billion U.S. dollars. Fidelity’s FETH also received a net inflow of 97.28 million U.S. dollars, reaching 1.51 billion U.S. dollars thus far. However, despite the strong growth in capital inflows from Ethereum Spot ETFs, they have not significantly contributed to Ethereum’s market performance or quelled many controversies in the Ethereum ecosystem, especially regarding the Layer 2 operating model.
Recently, many netizens have criticised on “X” that Layer 2 network is actually “parasitic” on Ethereum, becoming the main source of its inflation. While Layer 2 brings scalability and efficiency to Ethereum, the economic model and operational mechanisms behind it are increasingly being questioned. This analysis combines current market data with community voices to take a look at the current Layer 2 controversy within the Ethereum ecosystem. Or is it actually Ethereum layer 2 or bad actors?
In the current cycle, the performance of ETH has lagged significantly behind the market as a whole, and some people attribute it to the heavy load of layer 2’s and some blame the Ethereum Foundation (EF)! This weekend, Layer 2’s became the object of community criticism. On February 9, Andre Cronje, co-founder of Sonic, posted on X, expressed significant public protest that Layer 2’s made a lot of money by continuing to sell sequencer earnings and had become a parasite on Ethereum. “Becoming Layer 2 – running a centralised sorting machine – charging a fee of $120 million – paying Ethereum another $10 million for DA and security – then selling $110 million for a profit – then claiming to be the “Ethereum Alliance.” I don’t understand how the Ethereum community convinced itself to accept this logic.Layer2 has become the main cause of Ethereum inflation again.”
Explaining Sorters & Collators Layer 2 – Layer 2’s Sorter Gains
Layer 2’s sequencer revenue controversy has become a commonplace topic. The collator has an indispensable role within Layer 2 architecture, and its main utility is as follows:
  1. Collect user transactions and package them into batches in a specific order.
  2. Provide users with instant transaction confirmation before the transaction is finally on the chain.
  3. Submission of transaction data compression to Layer 1 to reduce gas costs.
In Layer2’s decentralised vision, the decentralisation of the sorter operation is an essential step. However, the reality is that almost all of Layer2’s collators are run by the development team, which is one of the biggest criticisms about Layer 2’s.
Why are Layer 2’s unable to complete the decentralisation of the sorter?
There are certain technical and operational reasons for this, but another big reason that cannot be ignored is that in the real world, sorting machines are a very profitable business. The primary sources of direct revenue from the operation of the sorting machine include: 1) transaction fee differences; 2) MEV capture; 3) Funds deposit interest.
DeepSeek provides Oracle on the other actors to blame and the following: How profitable is business?
We can take a cursory look through data from a single day on February 4 (Arbitrum) On February 4, because of the collective volatility of the market, Arbitrum charged $1.04 million at the Layer 2 level in a single day, while paying Layer 1 a final settlement cost of less than $20,000 – meaning that in just one day, the chain made millions of dollars in gains from trading fee spreads. (DeepSeek, 2025)
A look at Base again!
First with Winter Mute now on Layer 2. As the most active Layer 2 network on the Ethereum mainnet ecosystem, Base has long been at the centre of relevant public opinion. As the debate about the benefits of Layer 2 sorters intensified, the community began to take aim at Base. Lucidity CIO ,Mr. Santisa took the lead on X, accusing Base of transferring all the sequencer gains to Coinbase since the launch of its own network, and there is reason to suspect that this ETH has definitely been sold off. “Since its launch, BASE has been transferring sorter fees to Coinbase. We don’t know if they sold it, but we do know that they didn’t deploy the funds on Base or keep them on-chain. In the absence of further transparency, we can reasonably assume that they have sold off. They don’t agree with Ethereum’s stance.” (Santisa, 2025)
The figure shows the Base sorter income address
(0xEc8103eb573150cB92f8AF612e0072843db2295F) Close analysis, combined with Coinbase’s earnings data was used to analyse whether Base had sold the ETH in question. Thorough post mortem analysis and on-chain data showed that Base had earned significant income through sorters within the past 12 months. Over $100 million in revenue, with a profit margin of over 90%, all of these fees have been transferred to the exchange via the Base-Ethereum-Coinbase network path. According to Coinbase’s public earnings data, as of June 30, 2023 Coinbase held about $230 million in ETH on its balance sheet, when the price of ETH was $1,934, which means Coinbase held 118,924 ETH; As of September 30, 2024, Coinbase held 119696 ETH on its balance sheet. Suspicious indeed.
Suspiciously since the launch of Base, Coinbase only added 772 ETH to its balance sheet, so where did the hundreds of millions of dollars of Base sequencer revenue go? There seems to be only one answer! One might question that Base’s revenue, as a (notionally) independent network, and should not be counted on Coinbase’s balance sheet, this is unreasonable, as Coinbase has highlighted Base’s increased revenue in multiple financial statements. “The Ethereum community is proud of their Layer 2, but what Layer 2 does every day is transfer fee revenue from Layer 2 to Layer 1 and then to Coinbase to sell. This is the frontrunner of the Ethereum ecosystem. The Ethereum community wake up.” Base (Coinbase) on SOL with wintermute and now with Ethereum Layer 2.
Vitalik is Overwhelmed!
As of the posting, Vitalik has not responded to the accusations made by netizens other Ethereum community members, but in his January 24 self-written article, under the pressure of public opinion, Vitalik sends out a message calling out L2 proprietors: “Back for ETH,” a permutation of Vitalik’s frustration with the current state of Layer2’s operations is visible.
Vitalik said in the article that it is necessary to clarify the economic model of ETH to ensure that ETH continues to accumulate value in a Layer2-intensive world.
On an executive level, Vitalik encourages Layer 2 to support ETH by contributing a percentage of its fees, providing a permanent support mortgage and donating the proceeds to Ethereum mainnet.

By @LarryMetaTrust CSO, HashAi and @anndylian, Blockchain Expert & Author / Graphics by @Crypt0JayBear

Source: https://x.com/OfficialHashAI/status/1889758949681090841

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
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Price analysis 1/20: SPX, DXY, BTC, TRUMP, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK

Price analysis 1/20: SPX, DXY, BTC, TRUMP, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK

Bitcoin BTCUSD hit a new all-time high above $109,500 on Jan. 20, after the odds for a strategic Bitcoin reserve skyrocketed to 69% on DeFi betting market Polymarket.

The newly launched Trump family-related memecoins, Official Trump (TRUMP) and Official Melania (MELANIA), have also seen massive interest from the cryptocurrency trading community. Intergovernmental blockchain expert and author Anndy Lian told Cointelegraph that the memecoin launches will usher in a “new era for memecoins and altcoins.”

Euphoric times offer several trading opportunities, but they come with a risk. Vertical rallies are generally non-sustainable and are followed by sharp pullbacks. The deep pullback in TRUMP and Solana’s (SOL) volatility suggests that traders should exercise caution.

Can Bitcoin recapture its all-time high and trigger buying in altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) reversed strongly last week and broke above the moving averages, indicating that the break below 5,853 on Jan. 10 may have been a bear trap.

The 20-day exponential moving average (5,934) has flattened out, and the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into positive territory, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the zone between 6,050 and 6,100.

If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the index may form a range between 6,050 and 5,853. The next trending move is expected to begin on a break above 6,100 or below 5,773.

US Dollar Index price analysis

The US Dollar Index once again took support at the 20-day EMA (108.62) on Jan. 15, indicating that every minor dip is being purchased.

The RSI is showing signs of forming a negative divergence, suggesting that the bullish momentum is weakening. Sellers will have to yank the price below the 20-day EMA to open the doors for a deeper fall to 108 and then to the 50-day SMA (107.32).

Contrarily, a break and close above 110.17 will signal the continuation of the uptrend. The index could rally to 113.14 and eventually to 114.77. Buyers may find it challenging to clear the 114.77 hurdle.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($99,257) on Jan. 20 and skyrocketed to a new all-time high of $109,588.

If buyers maintain the price above $108,353, it will suggest the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The bulls will then try to thrust the price toward $126,706.

On the contrary, if the price fails to sustain above $108,353, it will suggest that the bears are fiercely defending the level. Sellers will have to pull the price below the moving averages to weaken the bullish momentum. The BTCUSDT pair could then consolidate between $109,588 and $90,000 for a few days.

Official Trump price analysis 

Due to the enormous popularity and volatility of the TRUMP memecoin, Cointelegraph is providing short-term analysis. A 30-minute chart has been used since there is little price history to look to for deeper insights.

The TRUMPUSDT pair has dipped below the symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling that the bulls are losing their grip. If the price maintains below the uptrend line, the pair could tumble to $38. This is a critical level to watch out for in the near term because a break below it may sink the pair to $24.

On the contrary, a strong bounce off the current level will suggest buying at lower levels. The bulls will then try to push the pair back into the triangle. Buyers will be back in command on a close above the downtrend line.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) bulls are defending the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern but are facing selling near the 50-day SMA ($3,537).

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($3,362) and the RSI near the midpoint indicate a slight edge to the bears. A break and close below $3,125 could accelerate selling, pulling the ETHUSDT pair toward $2,850.

Buyers will have to push and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA to indicate that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair could then rally to $3,745, which is likely to behave as a stiff hurdle.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) bounced off the breakout level of $2.91 on Jan. 20, indicating that the bulls are trying to flip the level into support.

The XRPUSDT pair is likely to pick up momentum after buyers push and sustain the price above the $3.40 overhead resistance. That could start the next leg of the uptrend toward the pattern target of $4.84.

The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA ($2.75). The pair may then sink to the 50-day SMA ($2.46). This is an important level to watch out for because a drop below the 50-day SMA could start a decline to $2.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) has been trading between the uptrend line and the overhead resistance at $745 for the past few days.

The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price rises above the moving averages, the BNBUSDT pair will again attempt to rally above $745. If that happens, the pair could surge to $794.

Contrarily, a break and close below the uptrend line will signal that the bulls are closing their positions. That could sink the pair to the $635 support, which is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls.

Solana price analysis

Solana has been hugely volatile for the past two days, indicating an intense battle between the bulls and the bears.

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($214) and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest that buyers are in command. A close above $260 improves the prospects of a retest of the all-time high at $295. If this level is scaled, the SOLUSDT pair may surge to $300 and eventually $375.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below $229, it will signal that the bulls are rushing to the exit. The pair may then drop to the 20-day EMA. A deep correction is likely to delay the start of the next leg of the uptrend.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been rising inside an ascending channel pattern for the past few days, indicating buying on dips and selling on rallies.

The 20-day EMA ($0.36) is flattening out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. If the price dips below the channel, the DOGEUSDT pair could slide to the $0.27 to $0.23 support zone. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the zone.

The bulls will be back in the driver’s seat on a close above the channel. That could clear the path for a rally to $0.48. Sellers are expected to vigorously defend the $0.48 level because a break above it may propel the pair to $0.59.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) has been trading inside the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.

It is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty as the flattish moving averages and the RSI just above the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.

If buyers drive the price above the triangle, the ADAUSDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $1.33. If this level is crossed, the rally could extend to $1.64. On the other hand, a break and close below the triangle could sink the pair to $0.80.

Chainlink price analysis

Chainlink (LINK) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($22.72) on Jan. 19, indicating that the sentiment remains positive, and traders are buying on dips.

The LINKUSDT pair rose above the $26 overhead resistance on Jan. 20, indicating that the bulls remain in control. If the price sustains above $26, the pair could retest the overhead resistance at $31.

Instead, if the price fails to maintain above $26, it will suggest selling on rallies. The bears will have to tug the price below the 20-day EMA to signal strength. That increases the risk of a fall to $20.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

 

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:a8013c3aa094b:0-price-analysis-1-20-spx-dxy-btc-trump-eth-xrp-bnb-sol-doge-ada-link/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Trump Vs. Harris: Crypto Experts Give Final U.S. Election Analysis

Trump Vs. Harris: Crypto Experts Give Final U.S. Election Analysis

In the build-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with all-time highs regarding the possibility that pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump would take the helm at the White House.

While polls are set to close on November 5, it could take days or even weeks for a winner to be declared, depending on how close the contest is.

If you are wondering whether now is a good time to buy Bitcoin, we have compiled all the information you need to know about the 2024 U.S. presidential election race.

Key Takeaways

  • The crypto markets nervously await the 2024 U.S. election outcome between Trump and Harris.
  • Polymarket favors Trump as the pro-crypto candidate, contrasting with traditional poll projections.
  • A Harris win may present a Bitcoin buying opportunity, while Trump could boost crypto optimism.
  • Key crypto experts share insights with Techopedia on the potential shift in the regulatory environment post-election.

The Tight 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Race

According to a poll by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, the 2024 U.S. presidential election race is the closest it has been in decades.

While odds on the crypto prediction market Polymarket showed Trump as a clear favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Trump at a 61% chance compared to Kamala Harris’ 39%, traditional pollsters and media houses expect a tighter contest.

Ahead of the November 5 voting deadline, NYT’s polls highlighted seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – that could decide the fate of the election.

As of November 5, Polymarket polls showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning in Pennsylvania. However, NYT and Siena College’s final set of polls said both Trump and Harris had a 48% chance each of winning in Pennsylvania.

In 2020, current U.S. president Joe Biden won the Pennsylvania state with a narrow 1.17% margin over Trump. The 2016 U.S. presidential election saw Trump win in Pennsylvania by a slender margin.

What Happens to Crypto Post-Election? Expert Analysis

Techopedia reached out to industry experts for exclusive insights on the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the crypto market.

Anndy Lian: Republican Majority in Congress is Key for Crypto Industry

Techopedia reached out to Anndy Lian, intergovernmental blockchain advisor and author of Blockchain Revolution 2030, for his thoughts on the U.S. presidential election race.

Firstly, Lian highlighted how crucial it was for the Trump-led Republican party to secure a majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress.

“For Republicans to effectively push through pro-crypto legislation, they really need to secure a majority in both houses. Without that majority, even a pro-crypto president might struggle to get meaningful bills passed.”

“So, while a Trump victory could spark optimism in the crypto space, the real key to unlocking potential growth lies in having a Republican majority in Congress.

“This combination could pave the way for policies that truly benefit the crypto market and help it thrive in the long run,” he added.

Next, we asked Lian what was in store for the crypto industry if Harris-led Democrats were to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“Harris has talked about supporting technological advancements, including digital assets, but there’s a concern that her policies might not stray far from the regulatory frameworks already in place.

“This could lead to an environment that focuses heavily on consumer protection and oversight, which might limit the more hands-off approach that many crypto advocates prefer.

“In the end, while a Democratic administration under Harris may not be as favorable for crypto as a Republican one, it doesn’t mean the industry is doomed.

The real question will be how her administration chooses to navigate the fast-changing world of cryptocurrencies.”

Finally, we asked Lian what he thought of the common notion that crypto regulations will change for the better no matter who wins the U.S. presidential elections.

“The idea that crypto regulations will improve regardless of who wins the presidency is an interesting one, but I think it oversimplifies a complex issue,” said Lian.

“The regulatory environment is influenced not just by the presidency but also by Congress, state governments, and international regulations.

“Even if there’s a general trend toward better regulations, the specifics will depend on the political climate and the priorities of those in power.”

10x Research: Harris Win Will Be Buying Opportunity

In a research note to Techopedia, 10x Research said the election outcome could hinge on “just one or two critical swing states”.

The Singapore-based crypto research firm noted that Bitcoin prices could slump 9% if Harris wins, while a Trump win could result in a 5% increase in Bitcoin prices.

10x Research added that a Harris win could present Bitcoin investors with a “buying opportunity.”

“The primary driver of this bull market, dating back to at least June 2023, has been the institutional adoption of Bitcoin, sparked by BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin Spot ETF…

“Even if Harris were to ‘remain’ U.S. President, the impact on Bitcoin would likely be minimal,” said 10x Research.

However, 10x Research noted that this “buying opportunity” is not applicable to other cryptocurrencies, especially Solana (SOL), as a Harris win would lower the chances of a Solana ETF being approved.

“Crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana) could be up +5% if Trump wins, Bitcoin might be down -9% if Harris wins, and Solana -15%. Hence, a long Bitcoin vs. short Solana could be a reasonable election trade,” said 10x Research.

The Bottom Line

The run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election has been incredibly interesting to observe as a crypto enthusiast.

Be it the newfound political importance of the crypto industry or the divergence between traditional polls and crypto platform polls, one thing is for certain: we will remember 2024 as the year crypto came of age.

As we conclude this article, we would like to remind readers that cryptocurrencies are volatile assets. Always do your own research before investing. The information in this guide does not constitute investment advice and is meant for informational purposes only.

 

 

 

Source: https://www.techopedia.com/trump-vs-harris-crypto-experts-final-election-analysis

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j