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How the Gulf conflict recast risks for Asian investors in Dubai

How the Gulf conflict recast risks for Asian investors in Dubai
Asian digital entrepreneurs that once saw Dubai as a safe, well-connected base for global expansion are now reassessing that view after the US-Israel war on Iran exposed vulnerabilities in the city’s appeal as a financial and technology hub.
For many investors and founders from India, China and Southeast Asia, the strain is not just about physical security but also about what disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has revealed about liquidity, credit and market confidence.

Dubai has in recent years positioned itself as a premier global hub for digital businesses focused on technologies such as artificial intelligence, fintech and blockchain, helped by policies including 100 per cent foreign ownership and tax incentives.

But the Iran conflict – during which Tehran has targeted cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi with drone and missile attacks – has left many businesses facing not only a security threat, but also higher borrowing costs and greater uncertainty over capital flows, according to analysts.

Last month, the central bank of the United Arab Emirates announced a “resilience package” to provide liquidity support and bolster the banking sector, but analysts said the broader ecosystem still faced challenges in maintaining liquidity and building resilient supply chains.

“For technology companies, the risks are less about physical infrastructure and more about financial infrastructure, especially as broader tensions affect market confidence or key routes like the Strait of Hormuz,” said Rafiza Ghazali, managing director for consumer banking at Fasset, a banking and investment platform focused on emerging markets.

The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war sent oil prices soaring by 60 per cent to around US$100 per barrel within a month and spurred severe liquidity crunches in the freight market. It also increased operational risks and regulatory compliance challenges.

While a shaky US-Iran ceasefire has allayed some investor concerns, uncertainty remains about whether this pact will hold and lead to a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

“While it is difficult to precisely predict outcomes at this stage, any constraints are likely to be episodic and sentiment-driven rather than sustained,” Ghazali said. “I would view this more as a stress test rather than a structural shift.”

The demand for cross-border financial services would remain over the longer term, he said, adding that companies that had built strong fundamentals would remain resilient.

Dubai has attracted substantial amounts of Asian capital in recent years, with India the biggest single source of foreign direct investment into the emirate in 2024, accounting for 21.5 per cent of total inflows, according to official data. Dubai said total FDI reached 52.3 billion dirhams (US$14 billion) last year.

Many Asian financial and digital firms now use Dubai as a base for expansion across the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, often setting up in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), the city’s main financial hub. DIFC says it serves a 77-country region and hosts more than 1,670 innovation and tech firms.

Some have expanded their presence there in recent months, including India’s Juspay, which opened its regional headquarters in DIFC in February, and Singapore-based Dymon Asia Capital, which opened its first Middle East office in Dubai in late 2024.

The war with Iran has also disrupted critical transport infrastructure, with Dubai International Airport temporarily suspending some operations after drone incidents and Jebel Ali Port, one of the world’s busiest, facing stoppages after attack-related damage and debris.

“Most critically, digital infrastructure such as data centres and cloud services has been directly targeted, threatening service continuity,” said Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based adviser to governments on blockchain and IT.

The six-week conflict was already beginning to shift sentiment among a section of Asian investors, though most saw the situation as a temporary setback rather than a permanent strategic shift, he added.

“Investor sentiment has shifted towards capital flight, with some wealthy Asians relocating liquid assets to Singapore or Hong Kong,” he said, adding that other locations such as India and select European gateways had also gained attention.

Business resilience

Lian said the overall resilience of the business ecosystem for investors in the UAE remained strong, although a prolonged conflict could amplify risks for Asian investment portfolios in the region.

“At this stage, you’re realistically looking at 20 to 40 per cent of previously accessible capital becoming difficult to access,” said Raj Kapoor, president of the India Blockchain Alliance, adding that this would affect start-ups at a growth stage, real estate players and venture capital firms in particular.

“If the conflict is short-lived, markets would normalise quickly and most of this capital ‘comes back,’ he said.

The key issue was not any single threat, but how multiple risks occurring simultaneously due to geopolitics and security exposure were amplifying impact and uncertainty, Kapoor said.

“Dubai has long been viewed as insulated from regional conflict, but recent Iranian threats and strikes targeting Gulf infrastructure, including energy assets and data centres, have tested that assumption,” he added.

Investors remain hopeful that the situation will eventually stabilise.

Sunyong Hwang, CEO of Abu Dhabi-based blockchain company NEXPACE, said the Gulf region had built itself into a meaningful destination for Asian digital entrepreneurs and investors because of regulatory clarity and government-led digital investment with a long-term vision.

“Geopolitical uncertainty tests those foundations, and we continue to monitor developments closely,” he said.

“From our perspective, however, our global headquarter presence in Abu Dhabi has always been rooted in long-term strategic orientation. That calculus does not change in the face of short-term disruption.”

 

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3349694/how-gulf-conflict-recast-risks-asian-investors-dubai?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Asian markets flash red while US stocks climb, Bitcoin rebound: The divergence explained

Asian markets flash red while US stocks climb, Bitcoin rebound: The divergence explained

Markets found their footing today as a surprising burst of strength in American manufacturing activity recalibrated investor expectations across asset classes. The US ISM manufacturing survey for January delivered an unexpected leap from 47.9 in December to 52.6, well above the 48.5 estimate and the highest level since August 2022.

This single data point acted as an anchor for risk sentiment, lifting US equities: the Dow Jones climbed 1.05 per cent, the S&P 500 added 0.54 per cent, and the Nasdaq gained 0.56 per cent. Chipmakers and AI-related companies led the advance, while smaller-cap stocks surged sharply, reflecting a broadening of market participation beyond the narrow leadership that has characterized recent sessions. The VIX Index retreated to 16.34, signaling diminished anxiety among options traders even as the underlying catalyst suggested an economy with more momentum than previously assumed.

This resilience in risk assets despite stronger economic data presents a nuanced picture of market psychology. Typically robust manufacturing numbers would pressure equity valuations by reinforcing expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, yet Treasury yields absorbed the news with measured moves. The two-year yield rose 4.9 basis points to 3.572 per cent while the ten-year climbed 4.2 basis points to 4.277 per cent. The modest rate repricing suggests investors are separating near-term data strength from a firmly entrenched expectation of Federal Reserve easing later this year. Markets appear to be pricing a pause in early 2026, coinciding with Jerome Powell’s scheduled departure as Fed Chair in May, followed by two anticipated rate reductions in the second and third quarters. This forward-looking stance allows equities to rally on current strength while bonds gradually reposition in anticipation of eventual monetary accommodation.

The US dollar capitalised on this dynamic, strengthening against all G10 currencies with the Dollar Index climbing 0.66 per cent to 97.632. The greenback’s advance drew additional support from a pronounced sell-off in precious metals as investors rotated out of traditional safe havens. Gold tumbled 4.8 per cent to 4661 dollars per ounce while silver plunged 7 per cent to 79 dollars per ounce. This flight from metals into dollars created a self-reinforcing cycle of dollar strength visible in major pairs. The euro weakened against the dollar, closing at 1.1791, down 0.5 per cent, while the Japanese yen extended its decline, with USD/JPY rising 0.55 per cent to 155.63. Concerns about fiscal sustainability following projections of a strong election win for Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi added pressure on the yen, creating a divergence between US and Japanese monetary trajectories.

Commodities faced headwinds beyond the dollar’s strength. Brent crude fell 4.4 per cent to settle at 66 dollars per barrel as easing tensions between the US and Iran removed a geopolitical premium from oil prices. This move aligned with a cautiously negative outlook for crude given its sensitivity to diplomatic developments.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market staged a technical rebound, rising 2.65 per cent to a total valuation of 2.64 trillion dollars. This recovery followed a violent weekend deleveraging event that flushed over two and a half billion dollars in liquidations, primarily from overextended long positions. The bounce reflected an oversold condition rather than a fundamental shift with Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 holding at 85 per cent, underscoring the macro-driven nature of the move. Select altcoins, including Hyperliquid, surged on project-specific catalysts, but the broader market remains fragile, hinging on Bitcoin’s ability to defend the 73,000 to 78,000 dollar support zone.

Asian markets told a contrasting story opening the week deep in negative territory as regional investors trimmed risk exposure amid the precious metals collapse and crypto volatility. South Korea’s Kospi Index tumbled 5.3 per cent, triggering an intraday trading halt amid anxiety over potential US tariff actions. China’s Shanghai Composite fell 2.5 per cent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 2.2 per cent, reflecting regional sensitivity to shifts in global risk appetite. These losses highlighted the uneven nature of the global recovery, with emerging Asian markets reacting more sharply to risk-off signals than their US counterparts. Yet the divergence proved temporary as Asian indices traded higher by Tuesday morning, with US futures pointing upward, suggesting the initial sell-off represented an overreaction to weekend events rather than a structural breakdown.

President Trump’s announcement of a US-India trade deal added a geopolitical dimension to the session. The agreement immediately lowers reciprocal tariffs with the US, reducing the US rate on Indian goods from 25 per cent to 18 per cent, while India eliminates its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on American products. This development signals a pragmatic recalibration of trade policy that could ease supply chain friction and support manufacturing activity going forward. The deal arrives at a time when markets are seeking catalysts beyond monetary policy to sustain economic momentum, making its timing particularly relevant for cyclical sectors like industrials and financials.

My perspective on this market configuration centres on sustainability. The rally in US equities driven by manufacturing strength and trade optimism faces a fundamental test in the months ahead. Strong data today supports risk assets, but persistent strength could delay the Fed easing cycle that markets have priced in for mid-year. The bond market’s muted reaction to the ISM surprise suggests investors believe this manufacturing rebound is isolated rather than the start of a broad-based acceleration. I view the current environment as a transitional phase in which markets balance near-term resilience against medium-term vulnerability, particularly in labour markets, where weakness is expected to manifest ahead of anticipated rate cuts.

The crypto rebound exemplifies this fragility. A 2.65 per cent gain after massive liquidations represents technical exhaustion, not renewed conviction. The market’s tight correlation with the S&P 500 confirms it is a risk asset rather than a diversifier. True stabilisation requires Bitcoin to hold above 78000 dollars and spot ETF outflows to moderate, neither of which has occurred decisively. Similarly, the dollar’s strength may prove temporary if Fed easing materialises as expected, though near-term momentum favours continued greenback resilience.

Looking forward, the path of least resistance for markets depends on whether the manufacturing rebound broadens into other sectors or proves ephemeral. Investors should monitor labour market indicators closely, as any deterioration would validate the Fed’s easing narrative, supporting both bonds and equities. In the interim, a barbell approach makes sense, overweighting quality fixed income with five to seven-year duration while maintaining exposure to select cyclicals and defensives within equities. The recovery remains uneven and fragile, but the combination of strong data trade progress and technical rebounds has created a window of stability that markets are using to reposition for the next phase of the cycle. How long this window remains open depends on whether economic strength proves durable or gives way to the softening that monetary policy anticipates.

 

Source: https://e27.co/asian-markets-flash-red-while-us-stocks-climb-bitcoin-rebound-the-divergence-explained-20260203/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why Asian markets are rising while crypto quietly crosses a US$3 trillion threshold

Why Asian markets are rising while crypto quietly crosses a US$3 trillion threshold

Asian markets opened with cautious optimism on Monday, December 22, 2025, buoyed by a confluence of positive sentiment from US equities, a resilient crypto sector, and a series of incremental yet meaningful regulatory shifts in key financial jurisdictions.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed nearly two per cent, while both the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng posted gains, reflecting a broader regional momentum. Only Thailand bucked the trend, with its market expected to drift sideways amid thin holiday trading volumes and a calendar packed with festive closures. This regional advance mirrors a broader pattern, as US stock indices closed higher on Friday, December 19, setting the tone for the week ahead.

The S&P 500 rose 0.88 per cent to finish at 6,834.50, the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.31 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.38 per cent to close at 48,134.89. European markets, too, had shown strength earlier in December, with both the FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX registering gains.

This upward movement unfolds against the backdrop of a holiday-shortened trading week. US markets will close early on Wednesday, December 24, for Christmas Eve and remain shut on Thursday, December 25, for Christmas Day. Lower liquidity during this period often amplifies price swings, and market participants remain on alert for volatility spikes.

Yet investor sentiment appears anchored by the persistent hope of a “Santa Claus rally”, a historical tendency for equities to rise during the final five trading days of December and the first two of January. Futures markets reflected this optimism over the weekend, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures adding about 50 points, or 0.1 per cent, while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.3 per cent and Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, digital asset markets have seen a modest but notable uptick, with the overall crypto market rising 0.93 per cent over the past 24 hours. This move stems less from speculative euphoria and more from structural developments that signal a turning point in institutional acceptance. Two regulatory initiatives stand out as critical catalysts.

First, the US Federal Reserve has proposed a framework that would grant crypto firms access to its payment infrastructure through special-purpose accounts. Although still in the public consultation phase with comments due by early February 2026, this move represents a significant step toward integrating digital asset players into the mainstream financial plumbing of the United States.

Second, and perhaps more immediately impactful for Asia, Hong Kong’s Insurance Authority has unveiled draft rules that would permit insurers to allocate capital to crypto assets, provided they maintain a 100 per cent risk charge against such exposure. In practical terms, this means insurers would need to hold capital equal to the full value of any crypto position, making such investments expensive but legally viable for the first time under a formal regulatory framework.

Hong Kong’s proposal is not merely about crypto exposure. It also creates incentives for insurers to invest in infrastructure projects tied to Hong Kong or mainland China, including developments in the Northern Metropolis near the China border. This dual focus aligns with the city’s broader economic strategy of leveraging private capital to support public initiatives amid fiscal constraints.

Importantly, the regulator emphasised that its decisions were made independently, even as they dovetail with governmental priorities. Stablecoins receive differentiated treatment under the proposal, with risk charges linked to the fiat currencies they track, provided the issuer is regulated domestically. This nuance reflects a calibrated approach to risk differentiation, acknowledging that not all digital assets exhibit the same volatility or counterparty risk profiles.

From a market-structure standpoint, Hong Kong’s move could unlock substantial institutional capital. The territory hosts 158 authorised insurers, which collectively generated HK$635 billion (US$82 billion) in gross premiums in 2024. Even a modest one per cent allocation to crypto under the new rules could channel over US$800 million into the sector, not to mention potential flows into tokenised infrastructure assets.

However, the 100 per cent capital charge ensures that such allocations remain marginal rather than transformative in the near term. The proposal remains subject to public consultation from February through April 2026, and industry feedback may prompt adjustments, particularly given concerns that too few infrastructure projects currently qualify for preferential treatment.

The crypto market’s technical posture complements these regulatory tailwinds. The total market capitalisation has reclaimed its pivot point at US$3.01 trillion, bolstered by a bullish MACD crossover that added US$5.96 billion in histogram value. Yet caution remains warranted. The RSI-14 hovers at 42.98, signalling neutral rather than overtly bullish momentum, and resistance looms at the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of US$3.11 trillion.

Spot trading volume remains subdued, down 47 per cent compared to derivatives activity, suggesting that much of the current price action is driven by leveraged positions rather than genuine accumulation. This imbalance could make the market vulnerable to sharp corrections if sentiment shifts.

Sectorally, privacy-focused tokens and Binance ecosystem projects led recent gains, with Midnight’s NIGHT token surging 35 per cent. This indicates a broadening of risk appetite beyond Bitcoin, although Bitcoin’s dominance remains steady at 58.98 per cent. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index currently sits at just 17 out of 100, underscoring that despite pockets of strength, the market remains firmly in “Bitcoin Season.” Spot volume across altcoins has nonetheless improved by 45 per cent, indicating renewed liquidity in peripheral assets.

Commodities have also played a role in shaping the macro backdrop. Gold futures reached an unprecedented high of US$4,421 per ounce, while silver surged past US$69.27, both driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and the traditional year-end flight to safety. Oil prices rose nearly one per cent after the US announced the seizure of another Venezuela-linked tanker, reinforcing supply concerns. The ICE US Dollar Index ticked higher, reflecting the greenback’s relative strength, even as global risk assets advanced.

Despite recent equity rallies, some analysts warn that valuations in US markets appear stretched. The strong performance of the S&P 500’s information technology sector, which rallied two per cent on Friday, its best showing since November 24, may have already priced in much of the good news.

For the week ending December 19, the S&P 500 edged up just 0.1 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.5 per cent, and the Dow actually declined 0.7 per cent, breaking a three-week winning streak. This mixed performance suggests that while momentum exists, it is fragile and dependent on continued positive catalysts.

In summary, the current market environment reflects a delicate balance between optimism and caution. Regulatory progress in both Washington and Hong Kong provides a foundational boost to crypto’s institutional legitimacy, even if near-term capital flows remain constrained by stringent requirements. Equity markets ride the seasonal hopes of a Santa Claus rally, supported by tech strength but shadowed by valuation concerns. Commodities signal underlying geopolitical unease.

And while Bitcoin briefly touched US$89,000, the broader crypto market’s resilience hinges on whether it can sustain levels above the critical US$3.03 trillion mark, the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level and maintain its tight correlation with the Nasdaq-100, which currently stands at +0.61 over the past seven days.

The central question now is whether Hong Kong’s regulatory blueprint will evolve from a symbolic gesture into a genuine conduit for institutional capital. The answer will depend not only on the final rulemaking but also on how global insurers interpret the risk-return calculus under a 100 per cent capital charge.

If even a fraction of the sector’s US$82 billion in annual premiums flows into crypto or tokenised infrastructure, it could mark the beginning of a new phase of market maturation, one where digital assets transition from speculative instruments to legitimate components of diversified institutional portfolios.

Until then, markets will remain in a holding pattern, lifted by regulatory tailwinds but grounded by structural constraints.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j