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Asian markets flash red while US stocks climb, Bitcoin rebound: The divergence explained

Asian markets flash red while US stocks climb, Bitcoin rebound: The divergence explained

Markets found their footing today as a surprising burst of strength in American manufacturing activity recalibrated investor expectations across asset classes. The US ISM manufacturing survey for January delivered an unexpected leap from 47.9 in December to 52.6, well above the 48.5 estimate and the highest level since August 2022.

This single data point acted as an anchor for risk sentiment, lifting US equities: the Dow Jones climbed 1.05 per cent, the S&P 500 added 0.54 per cent, and the Nasdaq gained 0.56 per cent. Chipmakers and AI-related companies led the advance, while smaller-cap stocks surged sharply, reflecting a broadening of market participation beyond the narrow leadership that has characterized recent sessions. The VIX Index retreated to 16.34, signaling diminished anxiety among options traders even as the underlying catalyst suggested an economy with more momentum than previously assumed.

This resilience in risk assets despite stronger economic data presents a nuanced picture of market psychology. Typically robust manufacturing numbers would pressure equity valuations by reinforcing expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, yet Treasury yields absorbed the news with measured moves. The two-year yield rose 4.9 basis points to 3.572 per cent while the ten-year climbed 4.2 basis points to 4.277 per cent. The modest rate repricing suggests investors are separating near-term data strength from a firmly entrenched expectation of Federal Reserve easing later this year. Markets appear to be pricing a pause in early 2026, coinciding with Jerome Powell’s scheduled departure as Fed Chair in May, followed by two anticipated rate reductions in the second and third quarters. This forward-looking stance allows equities to rally on current strength while bonds gradually reposition in anticipation of eventual monetary accommodation.

The US dollar capitalised on this dynamic, strengthening against all G10 currencies with the Dollar Index climbing 0.66 per cent to 97.632. The greenback’s advance drew additional support from a pronounced sell-off in precious metals as investors rotated out of traditional safe havens. Gold tumbled 4.8 per cent to 4661 dollars per ounce while silver plunged 7 per cent to 79 dollars per ounce. This flight from metals into dollars created a self-reinforcing cycle of dollar strength visible in major pairs. The euro weakened against the dollar, closing at 1.1791, down 0.5 per cent, while the Japanese yen extended its decline, with USD/JPY rising 0.55 per cent to 155.63. Concerns about fiscal sustainability following projections of a strong election win for Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi added pressure on the yen, creating a divergence between US and Japanese monetary trajectories.

Commodities faced headwinds beyond the dollar’s strength. Brent crude fell 4.4 per cent to settle at 66 dollars per barrel as easing tensions between the US and Iran removed a geopolitical premium from oil prices. This move aligned with a cautiously negative outlook for crude given its sensitivity to diplomatic developments.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market staged a technical rebound, rising 2.65 per cent to a total valuation of 2.64 trillion dollars. This recovery followed a violent weekend deleveraging event that flushed over two and a half billion dollars in liquidations, primarily from overextended long positions. The bounce reflected an oversold condition rather than a fundamental shift with Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 holding at 85 per cent, underscoring the macro-driven nature of the move. Select altcoins, including Hyperliquid, surged on project-specific catalysts, but the broader market remains fragile, hinging on Bitcoin’s ability to defend the 73,000 to 78,000 dollar support zone.

Asian markets told a contrasting story opening the week deep in negative territory as regional investors trimmed risk exposure amid the precious metals collapse and crypto volatility. South Korea’s Kospi Index tumbled 5.3 per cent, triggering an intraday trading halt amid anxiety over potential US tariff actions. China’s Shanghai Composite fell 2.5 per cent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 2.2 per cent, reflecting regional sensitivity to shifts in global risk appetite. These losses highlighted the uneven nature of the global recovery, with emerging Asian markets reacting more sharply to risk-off signals than their US counterparts. Yet the divergence proved temporary as Asian indices traded higher by Tuesday morning, with US futures pointing upward, suggesting the initial sell-off represented an overreaction to weekend events rather than a structural breakdown.

President Trump’s announcement of a US-India trade deal added a geopolitical dimension to the session. The agreement immediately lowers reciprocal tariffs with the US, reducing the US rate on Indian goods from 25 per cent to 18 per cent, while India eliminates its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on American products. This development signals a pragmatic recalibration of trade policy that could ease supply chain friction and support manufacturing activity going forward. The deal arrives at a time when markets are seeking catalysts beyond monetary policy to sustain economic momentum, making its timing particularly relevant for cyclical sectors like industrials and financials.

My perspective on this market configuration centres on sustainability. The rally in US equities driven by manufacturing strength and trade optimism faces a fundamental test in the months ahead. Strong data today supports risk assets, but persistent strength could delay the Fed easing cycle that markets have priced in for mid-year. The bond market’s muted reaction to the ISM surprise suggests investors believe this manufacturing rebound is isolated rather than the start of a broad-based acceleration. I view the current environment as a transitional phase in which markets balance near-term resilience against medium-term vulnerability, particularly in labour markets, where weakness is expected to manifest ahead of anticipated rate cuts.

The crypto rebound exemplifies this fragility. A 2.65 per cent gain after massive liquidations represents technical exhaustion, not renewed conviction. The market’s tight correlation with the S&P 500 confirms it is a risk asset rather than a diversifier. True stabilisation requires Bitcoin to hold above 78000 dollars and spot ETF outflows to moderate, neither of which has occurred decisively. Similarly, the dollar’s strength may prove temporary if Fed easing materialises as expected, though near-term momentum favours continued greenback resilience.

Looking forward, the path of least resistance for markets depends on whether the manufacturing rebound broadens into other sectors or proves ephemeral. Investors should monitor labour market indicators closely, as any deterioration would validate the Fed’s easing narrative, supporting both bonds and equities. In the interim, a barbell approach makes sense, overweighting quality fixed income with five to seven-year duration while maintaining exposure to select cyclicals and defensives within equities. The recovery remains uneven and fragile, but the combination of strong data trade progress and technical rebounds has created a window of stability that markets are using to reposition for the next phase of the cycle. How long this window remains open depends on whether economic strength proves durable or gives way to the softening that monetary policy anticipates.

 

Source: https://e27.co/asian-markets-flash-red-while-us-stocks-climb-bitcoin-rebound-the-divergence-explained-20260203/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Why Asian markets are rising while crypto quietly crosses a US$3 trillion threshold

Why Asian markets are rising while crypto quietly crosses a US$3 trillion threshold

Asian markets opened with cautious optimism on Monday, December 22, 2025, buoyed by a confluence of positive sentiment from US equities, a resilient crypto sector, and a series of incremental yet meaningful regulatory shifts in key financial jurisdictions.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed nearly two per cent, while both the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng posted gains, reflecting a broader regional momentum. Only Thailand bucked the trend, with its market expected to drift sideways amid thin holiday trading volumes and a calendar packed with festive closures. This regional advance mirrors a broader pattern, as US stock indices closed higher on Friday, December 19, setting the tone for the week ahead.

The S&P 500 rose 0.88 per cent to finish at 6,834.50, the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.31 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.38 per cent to close at 48,134.89. European markets, too, had shown strength earlier in December, with both the FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX registering gains.

This upward movement unfolds against the backdrop of a holiday-shortened trading week. US markets will close early on Wednesday, December 24, for Christmas Eve and remain shut on Thursday, December 25, for Christmas Day. Lower liquidity during this period often amplifies price swings, and market participants remain on alert for volatility spikes.

Yet investor sentiment appears anchored by the persistent hope of a “Santa Claus rally”, a historical tendency for equities to rise during the final five trading days of December and the first two of January. Futures markets reflected this optimism over the weekend, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures adding about 50 points, or 0.1 per cent, while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.3 per cent and Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, digital asset markets have seen a modest but notable uptick, with the overall crypto market rising 0.93 per cent over the past 24 hours. This move stems less from speculative euphoria and more from structural developments that signal a turning point in institutional acceptance. Two regulatory initiatives stand out as critical catalysts.

First, the US Federal Reserve has proposed a framework that would grant crypto firms access to its payment infrastructure through special-purpose accounts. Although still in the public consultation phase with comments due by early February 2026, this move represents a significant step toward integrating digital asset players into the mainstream financial plumbing of the United States.

Second, and perhaps more immediately impactful for Asia, Hong Kong’s Insurance Authority has unveiled draft rules that would permit insurers to allocate capital to crypto assets, provided they maintain a 100 per cent risk charge against such exposure. In practical terms, this means insurers would need to hold capital equal to the full value of any crypto position, making such investments expensive but legally viable for the first time under a formal regulatory framework.

Hong Kong’s proposal is not merely about crypto exposure. It also creates incentives for insurers to invest in infrastructure projects tied to Hong Kong or mainland China, including developments in the Northern Metropolis near the China border. This dual focus aligns with the city’s broader economic strategy of leveraging private capital to support public initiatives amid fiscal constraints.

Importantly, the regulator emphasised that its decisions were made independently, even as they dovetail with governmental priorities. Stablecoins receive differentiated treatment under the proposal, with risk charges linked to the fiat currencies they track, provided the issuer is regulated domestically. This nuance reflects a calibrated approach to risk differentiation, acknowledging that not all digital assets exhibit the same volatility or counterparty risk profiles.

From a market-structure standpoint, Hong Kong’s move could unlock substantial institutional capital. The territory hosts 158 authorised insurers, which collectively generated HK$635 billion (US$82 billion) in gross premiums in 2024. Even a modest one per cent allocation to crypto under the new rules could channel over US$800 million into the sector, not to mention potential flows into tokenised infrastructure assets.

However, the 100 per cent capital charge ensures that such allocations remain marginal rather than transformative in the near term. The proposal remains subject to public consultation from February through April 2026, and industry feedback may prompt adjustments, particularly given concerns that too few infrastructure projects currently qualify for preferential treatment.

The crypto market’s technical posture complements these regulatory tailwinds. The total market capitalisation has reclaimed its pivot point at US$3.01 trillion, bolstered by a bullish MACD crossover that added US$5.96 billion in histogram value. Yet caution remains warranted. The RSI-14 hovers at 42.98, signalling neutral rather than overtly bullish momentum, and resistance looms at the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of US$3.11 trillion.

Spot trading volume remains subdued, down 47 per cent compared to derivatives activity, suggesting that much of the current price action is driven by leveraged positions rather than genuine accumulation. This imbalance could make the market vulnerable to sharp corrections if sentiment shifts.

Sectorally, privacy-focused tokens and Binance ecosystem projects led recent gains, with Midnight’s NIGHT token surging 35 per cent. This indicates a broadening of risk appetite beyond Bitcoin, although Bitcoin’s dominance remains steady at 58.98 per cent. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index currently sits at just 17 out of 100, underscoring that despite pockets of strength, the market remains firmly in “Bitcoin Season.” Spot volume across altcoins has nonetheless improved by 45 per cent, indicating renewed liquidity in peripheral assets.

Commodities have also played a role in shaping the macro backdrop. Gold futures reached an unprecedented high of US$4,421 per ounce, while silver surged past US$69.27, both driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and the traditional year-end flight to safety. Oil prices rose nearly one per cent after the US announced the seizure of another Venezuela-linked tanker, reinforcing supply concerns. The ICE US Dollar Index ticked higher, reflecting the greenback’s relative strength, even as global risk assets advanced.

Despite recent equity rallies, some analysts warn that valuations in US markets appear stretched. The strong performance of the S&P 500’s information technology sector, which rallied two per cent on Friday, its best showing since November 24, may have already priced in much of the good news.

For the week ending December 19, the S&P 500 edged up just 0.1 per cent, the Nasdaq gained 0.5 per cent, and the Dow actually declined 0.7 per cent, breaking a three-week winning streak. This mixed performance suggests that while momentum exists, it is fragile and dependent on continued positive catalysts.

In summary, the current market environment reflects a delicate balance between optimism and caution. Regulatory progress in both Washington and Hong Kong provides a foundational boost to crypto’s institutional legitimacy, even if near-term capital flows remain constrained by stringent requirements. Equity markets ride the seasonal hopes of a Santa Claus rally, supported by tech strength but shadowed by valuation concerns. Commodities signal underlying geopolitical unease.

And while Bitcoin briefly touched US$89,000, the broader crypto market’s resilience hinges on whether it can sustain levels above the critical US$3.03 trillion mark, the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level and maintain its tight correlation with the Nasdaq-100, which currently stands at +0.61 over the past seven days.

The central question now is whether Hong Kong’s regulatory blueprint will evolve from a symbolic gesture into a genuine conduit for institutional capital. The answer will depend not only on the final rulemaking but also on how global insurers interpret the risk-return calculus under a 100 per cent capital charge.

If even a fraction of the sector’s US$82 billion in annual premiums flows into crypto or tokenised infrastructure, it could mark the beginning of a new phase of market maturation, one where digital assets transition from speculative instruments to legitimate components of diversified institutional portfolios.

Until then, markets will remain in a holding pattern, lifted by regulatory tailwinds but grounded by structural constraints.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

US consumer confidence dips: How it’s hitting Asian stocks, crypto and beyond

US consumer confidence dips: How it’s hitting Asian stocks, crypto and beyond

The situation unfolding on Wednesday, March 26, 2025, paints a fascinating picture of cautious optimism tempered by uncertainty and shifting economic winds. Asian stocks traded in a tight range today, reflecting a market caught in a tug-of-war between faint glimmers of hope and the looming shadows of US policy shifts under President Donald Trump.

Investors seem to be searching for a foothold, grappling with weaker US consumer confidence and the unpredictable spectre of Trump’s forthcoming tariff plans. Let’s dive into this complex landscape and unpack what’s driving these movements, how they’re rippling across asset classes, and what it all might mean for the weeks ahead.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, a broad barometer of regional equity performance, managed to snap a three-day losing streak with a modest 0.3 per cent gain. It’s a small victory, but one that comes with a caveat: the index lost much of its early momentum as the trading session wore on.

This tepid performance suggests that while there’s some resilience in Asian markets, there’s no clear consensus among investors about where things are headed. The backdrop to this indecision is a US economy showing signs of strain. Consumer confidence in the United States has slumped to a four-year low, with the Conference Board’s latest reading dropping to 92.9 in March from 100.1 in February.

This decline, driven in part by fears of a recession and inflationary pressures tied to Trump’s tariff rhetoric, is casting a long shadow over global markets. For Asian economies, many of which rely heavily on exports to the US, this weakening demand signal is a red flag that’s hard to ignore.

Meanwhile, the specter of Trump’s tariff policies continues to dominate headlines and trading floors alike. With his administration signaling “Liberation Day” on April 2—a date tied to significant tariff announcements—markets are bracing for potential upheaval.

Trump has hinted at reciprocal tariffs, including fresh levies on pharmaceuticals and autos in the near future, as well as secondary tariffs on countries buying oil or gas from Venezuela. These moves, while aimed at bolstering US manufacturing, could disrupt global supply chains and hit Asian exporters hard. The uncertainty is palpable, and it’s no surprise that Asian stocks are struggling to find a decisive direction.

Yet, amidst this unease, there are pockets of strength. Australia’s ASX 200 futures, for instance, are pointing to a brighter start, up 47 points or 0.58 per cent as of 8:30 am AEDT. This uptick suggests that some investors are betting on resilience in commodity-driven markets, perhaps buoyed by surging copper prices in the US, which hit a record high as traders price in the impact of potential import tariffs.

Over in the US, equity markets are showing a different kind of stability. The S&P 500 notched its third consecutive day of gains on Tuesday, though the session was relatively quiet and rangebound. This steady climb follows a volatile period earlier in the month, when tariff fears and economic slowdown concerns sent stocks into a correction. The calm may be deceptive, however, as the 2025-26 US budget announcement last night offered little in the way of surprises.

Most measures had been telegraphed well in advance, leaving markets with no major catalysts to spark a breakout—or a breakdown. Treasury yields are creeping higher, with the 10-year note edging up slightly, while the dollar has paused its four-day rally. It’s a holding pattern of sorts, with investors seemingly waiting for Trump’s next move to dictate the narrative.

Switching gears to the cryptocurrency market, there’s a different story unfolding—one of recovery and cautious optimism. Bitcoin, the bellwether of the crypto world, is hovering around US$87,000 today after clawing back four per cent over the past three days. Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP are also finding support at key technical levels, hinting at a potential rebound. This resilience comes despite the broader market uncertainty, and it’s worth noting that Trump’s tariff plans could have a dual-edged impact here.

On one hand, heightened volatility from trade disruptions might drive safe-haven flows into Bitcoin; on the other, a stronger dollar—often a byproduct of protectionist policies—could cap crypto gains. Traders are keeping a close eye on April 2, when Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements could send shockwaves through digital assets, much as they’re expected to do with traditional markets.

The Solana ecosystem, meanwhile, is generating its own buzz. Solana’s price is sitting around US$142 today, up seven per cent this week, and the platform is gaining traction among institutional heavyweights.

BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, known as BUIDL, has just launched on Solana, marking a significant expansion from its Ethereum roots. With assets under management surpassing US$1.7 billion, BUIDL’s move to Solana underscores the blockchain’s growing appeal for its speed and scalability.

Adding fuel to this fire, Fidelity has filed for a spot Solana ETF with Cboe Global Markets, a development that’s bolstering SOL’s bullish outlook. These moves by asset management giants signal a broader trend: institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum is accelerating, and Solana is positioning itself as a prime beneficiary. For investors, this could mean more upside potential, though the tariff wildcard looms large over the entire crypto space.

Contrast this with Ripple’s XRP, which is struggling to capitalise on what should have been a positive development. On Tuesday, Ripple announced it would drop its cross-appeal against the SEC, effectively ending a four-year legal saga that culminated in a US$125 million judgment last August. This resolution should have cleared a major overhang for XRP, potentially paving the way for ETF filings or broader adoption.

Yet, the token’s price has remained stubbornly muted. Why the lackluster response? It could be that the market had already priced in this outcome, or perhaps the broader uncertainty around US regulatory policy under Trump is keeping a lid on enthusiasm. Whatever the reason, XRP’s inability to rally stands in stark contrast to Solana’s momentum, highlighting the uneven recovery across the crypto landscape.

Back in the equity world, individual stock movements are adding texture to the broader narrative. ANZ, one of Australia’s big four banks, saw an abrupt 3.1 per cent sell-off toward the close on Tuesday, a move that caught some traders off guard. It’ll be intriguing to see if it can bounce back today, especially given the positive tilt in ASX 200 futures.

The sell-off might reflect profit-taking after a strong run, or it could hint at sector-specific concerns—perhaps tied to tariff impacts on Australia’s trade-heavy economy. Either way, it’s a reminder that beneath the surface of index-level stability, there’s plenty of churn and opportunity for the astute observer.

I see a world in transition—one where old certainties are giving way to new risks and opportunities. Asian stocks’ tight trading range reflects a market that’s hesitant but not defeated, caught between US economic headwinds and the promise of regional resilience. The surge in copper and the steadying S&P 500 suggest that some investors are willing to bet on a soft landing, even as consumer confidence wanes.

In the crypto space, Solana’s rise and XRP’s stagnation highlight the power of institutional momentum versus regulatory fatigue. And looming over it all is Trump’s tariff agenda, a wild card that could either ignite a global trade war or fizzle into pragmatic compromise.

My gut tells me we’re in for more volatility before clarity emerges, but for those with a keen eye and a steady hand, there’s plenty of potential to navigate this storm. The next few weeks, particularly around April 2, will be pivotal—mark your calendars and keep your wits about you.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/us-consumer-confidence-dips-how-its-hitting-asian-stocks-crypto-and-beyond-20250326/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j