Tag Archives: bitcoin

Fear Is High and Longs Got Flushed. Bitcoin Near a 12-Week Low. Is $70,000 the Next Line in the Sand?

Fear Is High and Longs Got Flushed. Bitcoin Near a 12-Week Low. Is $70,000 the Next Line in the Sand?

My point of view is straightforward. The recent Bitcoin drop looks like a macro-led repricing with a leverage amplifier, not a Bitcoin-only failure. Bitcoin fell 3.45% to $71,425.63 in 24 hours and traded near a reported 12-week low. The broader crypto market fell 2.66% to $2.39 trillion. Bitcoin underperformed the wider market and became the main drag. 

The primary force came from higher U.S. yields. A market recap on November 12 said hotter inflation pushed the U.S. 10-year yield above 5% as traders priced in more Fed hikes. That recap put Bitcoin down 4.3% near $71,400. The TLDR snapshot put Bitcoin down 3.45% to $71,425.63. The 2 snapshots differ slightly, and they point in the same direction. Higher yields can make speculative assets less attractive. Bitcoin’s outsized decline pulled the wider crypto market lower. Markets reacted to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s reported departure and uncertainty about potential selling tied to Strategy’s planned MSCI index removal. Those items remain reported market concerns, not proof of a single cause. 

The secondary force came from liquidations. Bitcoin long liquidations reached $252.84 million in 24 hours, up sharply from the prior period. Forced closures can add sell orders and deepen a decline. Liquidation data reflects and amplifies selling pressure. It does not establish the original cause. Market sentiment remained fearful, and major crypto sectors were down. That broad weakness supports the view that selling spread beyond Bitcoin. I treat the liquidation figure as evidence of leverage stress. The root cause looks more like higher yields and a market-wide move away from speculative assets. That distinction matters for the near term. A leverage flush can end once forced positions clear. A macro repricing can last longer if yields keep pressing speculative assets.

The 97% correlation with Gold strengthens my macro-first reading. A strong correlation between crypto and Gold indicates a shared macro repricing. I do not take that correlation as proof of causation, and I would not overstate it. It weakens the case for a Bitcoin-only narrative. If Bitcoin and Gold move together under yield pressure, the more reasonable explanation is a common macro driver, not a crypto-specific event. That is why I see the Nvidia and Strategy headlines as reported concerns that added uncertainty. They did not serve as confirmed triggers. The market recap put Bitcoin down 4.3% near $71,400, and the broader crypto market fell 2.66%, so Bitcoin’s drop was a larger force in the move. The market-wide weakness also tells me that traders reduced risk across crypto.

Near-term momentum looks weak. Bitcoin sits below the $73,936 daily pivot, and the reported 24-hour low was around $71,200. If Bitcoin holds near $71,200, it could attempt a rebound toward the pivot. A break below $70,000 risks extending losses. The total crypto market cap sits at $2.39 trillion, which is also the stated pivot level. If the market cap holds near $2.39 trillion and Bitcoin stabilizes, losses could ease. Continued yield pressure or a break below that level would keep downside risk elevated. I would watch whether Bitcoin selling and long liquidations cool. I would not treat oversold readings alone as proof of a bottom. Stabilization needs demand and calmer leverage.

The next daily U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flow report is a useful demand check. If flows improve and the market holds $2.39 trillion, selling pressure could fade. If flows stay weak alongside continued yield pressure, the outlook weakens. I also mark Strategy’s planned MSCI index removal on November 30, 2026 as a future watch item. The available material does not confirm a Bitcoin sale tied to that change. The potential selling impact remains uncertain. Any confirmed flows around the November 30 index change would matter more than headlines. The Nvidia CEO departure concern and the Strategy index concern both sit in the reported-concern category. They do not sit in the confirmed-catalyst category. I would keep that distinction clear when judging the next move.

My conclusion is that bearish pressure persists. Market-wide weakness and heavy long liquidations help explain the drop. The available evidence does not establish 1 definitive catalyst. The key watch over the next 24 to 48 hours is whether Bitcoin can hold above $71,200 and recover the $73,936 pivot. 

 

https://e27.co/fear-is-high-and-longs-got-flushed-is-us70000-the-next-line-in-the-sand-20261113/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Is Short Covering the Only Reason Bitcoin Moved Higher?

Is Short Covering the Only Reason Bitcoin Moved Higher?

Bitcoin gained 0.73% to $73,937.65 in 24 hours, and Ethereum gained 0.519% to $2,053.91. The total crypto market rose 0.45%. I read this move as a modest relief bounce after selling eased, not the start of a confirmed new trend. The figures support that view. Both assets moved with the wider market. Neither note shows a distinct asset-specific catalyst. Trading participation fell for both.

For Bitcoin, the main story is that selling pressure eased after hotter than expected U.S. inflation data pushed BTC lower on November 10. News coverage linked the November 11 rise to that easing pressure. Short liquidations suggest some traders had to close bearish positions, and that forced buying likely added to the move. Traders who had bet on further declines helped lift prices when they closed those bets. That kind of buying fades once the squeeze ends. It does not signal that long-term investors have turned more positive. This is not the same as a new bullish driver. It is a partial recovery after a selloff. Bitcoin trading volume fell 14.3% over 24 hours. That drop weakens the case for a durable move. A price gain on lighter participation can reflect reduced selling rather than strong new demand. Bitcoin’s 7-day change remained down 8.06%. The daily uptick therefore sits inside a weaker short-term backdrop.

The ETF flow data adds another caution. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $95 million in net outflows on November 10. Outflows remove a source of demand. They do not create fresh buying. One linked headline notes that ETF outflows hit a 4th day. I would treat that as a headwind, not a side detail. Bitcoin can rise while ETFs lose assets, but that combination makes the move less trustworthy. A 4th day of withdrawals points to persistent caution among ETF investors. That flow can weigh on spot prices when it continues. The market can absorb 1 day of outflows. A run of withdrawals sends a different message about demand. My view is that the market needs more than short covering and eased selling to call this a reversal. It needs stronger participation and steadier demand.

The technical picture gives a clear map. Bitcoin trades near $73,938. Its 7-day average is about $74,990. Its 200-day average is about $73,118. The recent swing low is $72,689. If Bitcoin holds above that low and retakes $75,000 to $76,000, the recovery could extend. If it breaks below $72,689, the market risks a move toward $70,000. I find the 1st condition more important than the daily gain. Holding the low would show buyers are still defending the recent range. Reclaiming $75,000 to $76,000 would show more than a brief rise. It would show that Bitcoin can overcome nearby resistance. Losing $72,689 would strengthen the downside case and make the current gain look like a brief pause.

Ethereum shows a similar but weaker picture. Ethereum gained 0.519% to $2,053.91. The note describes the move as broad-market beta. Ethereum moved in the same direction as Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. It did not show a distinct Ethereum-specific catalyst. Ethereum’s 24-hour volume fell 33.19%. That is a large drop, and it limits confirmation. The Fear reading of 27 reflects cautious sentiment, but it does not explain the price move. Ethereum is down 15.03% over 7 days. That weak weekly performance tempers the daily gain.

The Ethereum levels matter in the same way. If Ethereum holds the $2,005 to $2,040 support area, it could retest $2,119. A sustained break below $2,005 could expose $1,900. My view is that Ethereum’s small gain is more about the wider market than about Ethereum-specific demand. That makes it vulnerable if wider-market buying fades. A support hold would keep a recovery possible. A support break would shift attention to $1,900. The note calls the short-term picture neutral, and I agree. That neutral label fits the data. ETH has a nearby ceiling and a nearby floor. The distance between them is modest. A trader should wait for a break before treating either direction as a real signal. The weekly decline and lower participation keep the signal weak.

The macro calendar gives the next scheduled test. U.S. producer price data arrives on Friday, November 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Bitcoin’s note flags that data as the next macro trigger. I wouldn’t overstate one report, but it can shape near-term risk appetite. The recent CPI-driven selloff shows how macro data can move crypto prices. A softer producer price reading could help the rise. A hotter reading could revive selling pressure. The market should watch how Bitcoin and Ethereum react around their key levels after that data, not just the direction of the 1st move.

My overall point of view is cautious. Bitcoin’s 0.73% gain and Ethereum’s 0.519% gain look consistent with a broader market bounce after the CPI-driven selloff. Short covering likely amplified the move. Lower participation and ETF outflows argue against treating it as a confirmed trend reversal. Bitcoin faces resistance at $75,000 to $76,000 and support at $72,689. Ethereum faces resistance at $2,119 and support at $2,005 to $2,040. The key watch is whether Bitcoin can hold $72,689 and reclaim $75,000 to $76,000 after the November 13 producer price data. Ethereum needs to hold $2,005 for its own recovery to stay alive. Until participation improves and ETF flows stabilize, I would not make any serious moves. 

 

https://e27.co/is-short-covering-the-only-reason-bitcoin-moved-higher-20261112/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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CPI at 0.4% Broke Bitcoin’s $73,000 Floor. What Happens if the Fed Goes Bigger?

CPI at 0.4% Broke Bitcoin’s $73,000 Floor. What Happens if the Fed Goes Bigger?

As anticipated yesterday, Bitcoin fell below $73,000 and touched a nearly 3-month low after the October U.S. CPI report came in hotter than forecast. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month against a 0.3% expectation, while core CPI rose 0.3% against a 0.2% expectation. Bitcoin was down 1.89% to $73,601.89 over 24h in the available data, and the broader crypto market fell 2.14% over the same period. The decline looked largely market-linked rather than tied to a Bitcoin-specific announcement, and the inflation surprise gave sellers a clear macro reason to act.

The Federal Reserve effect did most of the initial damage. A hotter inflation reading revived bets that the Fed will raise rates or keep them high at its December meeting. Higher rates lift yields on cash and government bonds, and that raises the opportunity cost of holding an asset that produces no cash flow. Bitcoin sits at the speculative end of the risk curve, so it absorbs that shift quickly. The CPI report changed rate expectations, and rate expectations changed the relative appeal of Bitcoin against safer yield-bearing assets. I see this as the primary trigger because it was measurable, immediate, and broad enough to hit crypto alongside other rate-sensitive assets.

Leverage turned the macro shock into a violent flush. Over $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions disappeared within 24h, and roughly 88% of those liquidations hit long positions. A long liquidation closes a bet on higher prices and sells the underlying asset to cover the loss. That selling pushes the price lower, which triggers more liquidations, which produces more selling. The available data also shows about $178 million in crypto long positions closed within 1 hour after the CPI release, while BTC liquidations totaled $204.41 million over 24h. The inflation report did not create that fragility. It exposed it.

Institutional demand had already lost some of its cushion. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded record net outflows of $1.28 billion in a single week, led largely by BlackRock’s IBIT fund. The available data also shows $201 million in net outflows on November 9. Those withdrawals matter because ETFs had provided a visible source of steady buying support. Public companies added to the supply side by unloading roughly $869 million worth of Bitcoin. That corporate selling reinforced the impression that large holders were trimming exposure into weakness rather than adding.

The broader risk backdrop made the crypto move worse. A chip-led selloff sent the Nasdaq 100 tumbling 6.4%, and Bitcoin moved with tech-correlated assets. Headlines about stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and a high-profile independent board investigation into Nvidia’s CEO further dampened global risk appetite. The correlation data supports that read. Crypto showed an 83% correlation with the S&P 500 and a 95% correlation with gold, consistent with broad cross-asset repricing. The Fear and Greed Index sat at 26, which reflects defensive sentiment rather than causal panic. I would treat the correlations as evidence of shared pressure.

My own view is that the CPI report deserves its place as the primary reason, but the severity of the drop came from the interaction between that report and the market’s internal weaknesses. Leverage was elevated, ETF flows had turned negative, and corporate treasuries were reducing exposure. The tech selloff and geopolitical headlines then turned a macro repricing into a fuller risk-off cascade. In that sense, the CPI was the spark, and the dry kindling was already stacked.

The near-term outlook remains cautious. Bitcoin is near its 200-day simple moving average at $73,136, with a recent swing low around $72,689. A hold above $73,136 and a reclaim of $74,000 to $75,000 could support a rebound. A break below $72,689 risks further weakness. The total crypto market cap sits at $2.45T as the current pivot, and a move back toward $2.52T would suggest the selloff is easing. The next spot ETF flow reports offer a measurable demand check. I see the bias as bearish while price stays below $74,000 to $75,000.

The key question is whether Bitcoin can hold near $73,000 and whether ETF flows show buyers returning.

 

https://e27.co/cpi-at-0-4-broke-bitcoins-us73000-floor-what-happens-if-the-fed-goes-bigger-20261111/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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