Tag Archives: bitcoin

Bitcoin just lost US$65,500 three times in a row and the Fed has not even spoken

Bitcoin just lost US$65,500 three times in a row and the Fed has not even spoken

The crypto market just reminded everyone who actually pulls the strings. Bitcoin slipped 2.45 per cent to US$63,555.73 over the past 24 hours, and Ethereum fell even harder at 3.24 per cent to US$1,884.62. The total crypto market cap dropped 2.36 per cent in the same window. These are not random numbers floating in a vacuum.

They tell a story about institutional money pulling back, leveraged traders getting wiped out, and an entire asset class holding its breath ahead of a Federal Reserve decision on July 29. I see this sell-off for what it truly is. This is not a crypto-specific failure. This is a macro-driven retreat, and anyone treating it as anything else is missing the bigger picture.

Let me start with the institutional side because that is where the real damage originated. US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled over US$465 million in outflows on July 23 and 24, snapping a seven-session inflow streak that had given bulls genuine hope just days earlier. These ETFs represent the pipeline through which traditional finance allocates capital into Bitcoin. When that pipeline reverses direction, it sends a clear signal that large allocators are stepping back from risk.

Ethereum felt the same pressure. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded US$70.7 million in outflows on July 24, breaking a five-day inflow streak of their own. Two major assets, two broken streaks, one common thread. Institutional buyers are pulling their chips off the table because they fear what the Fed might do next.

And that fear is not baseless. Markets are pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates, a scenario that would tighten financial conditions across every asset class. Crypto does not exist in isolation. When rate-hike anxiety grips equities and bonds, it grips digital assets too.

Bitcoin and Ethereum both moved in lockstep with the broader risk-off sentiment, which tells me this decline has very little to do with any fundamental weakness in either network. No coin-specific negative catalyst emerged. No hack, no regulatory crackdown, no protocol failure. Macro fear drove the selling from the top down, not crypto-native dysfunction.

The decline did not stop at institutional caution. Leverage made everything worse. Bitcoin saw US$50.37 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the majority of that damage. Ethereum experienced its own cascade of long liquidations after the price rejected the US$1,970 to US$1,980 resistance zone and lost the US$1,950 support level.

Once those leveraged longs started getting flushed, the selling accelerated mechanically. Margin calls do not care about your thesis or your conviction. They force liquidation at market price, and that creates a feedback loop that pushes prices lower faster than organic selling ever could. I have watched this pattern play out dozens of times. The initial move comes from macro fear, but the magnitude of the drop almost always comes from leverage unwinding.

The technical picture confirms what the flow data already suggests. Bitcoin failed three separate times to break through the US$65,500 resistance level. Three attempts, three rejections. That is not bad luck. That is a wall of selling pressure sitting at a specific price, and buyers simply could not generate enough force to push through it. The RSI14 reading of 29.16 now sits in oversold territory, which technically could precede a bounce.

I would caution against reading too much hope into that single indicator. Oversold conditions can persist longer than most traders expect, especially when the macro backdrop remains hostile. An RSI reading tells you momentum has stretched too far in one direction. It does not tell you when or if a reversal will arrive.

Ethereum faces its own technical crossroads. The rejection at US$1,970 to US$1,980 and the subsequent loss of US$1,950 paint a weak structure. The immediate support sits near US$1,880, aligned with the daily pivot point. Below that, the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$1,813 represents the next major floor. If ETH cannot defend US$1,880, I expect sellers to target US$1,813 aggressively. The structure right now favours the bears, and hoping for a different outcome does not change what the chart shows.

So where does this leave us? Everything hinges on July 29. The FOMC meeting is the single most important catalyst sitting in front of this market. If the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise and signals further rate tightening, Bitcoin could break below US$63,500 and open the door to a test of US$62,000.

Ethereum would likely follow, dragging the entire market deeper into risk-off territory. On the other hand, a dovish hold could trigger a relief rally. Bitcoin could grind back toward US$65,500, and Ethereum could reclaim US$1,950. The market has priced in fear. Any outcome softer than expected would give bulls the oxygen they desperately need.

My read is this. The next 24 to 48 hours will define the short-term trajectory for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. If Bitcoin holds above US$63,500 in the hours following the FOMC decision, consolidation between US$63,500 and US$65,500 becomes the most likely scenario.

If it breaks, another wave of liquidations could follow, and US$62,000 becomes the next magnet for price. For Ethereum, defending US$1,880 is the bare minimum requirement for any stabilisation thesis to hold. A break below that level invites a move toward US$1,813, and the selling pressure could intensify quickly.

I do not see a bullish setup forming here. The combination of institutional outflows, leverage flushing, repeated technical rejection, and an unresolved macro overhang creates a bearish pressure environment that will not resolve until the Fed speaks. The market needs clarity, and right now it has none.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-just-lost-us65500-three-times-in-a-row-and-the-fed-has-not-even-spoken-20260728/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Is Ether quietly stealing Bitcoin’s throne as the institutional favorite?

Is Ether quietly stealing Bitcoin’s throne as the institutional favorite?

Something feels off about last week in the world of crypto exchange-traded funds, and I think we need to talk about it honestly. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly US$8.05 billion in trading volume across the five sessions ending Friday. That marks their lowest total for a full trading week since October 2024. Let that sink in for a moment. We are looking at a nearly two-year low in activity for products that dominated headlines and attracted billions in capital throughout the prior cycle.

The funds drew just US$33.8 million in net inflows for the entire week, a figure that looks almost negligible when you consider that nearly US$500 million of inflows had accumulated through Wednesday before the final two sessions erased almost all of that progress. I find this pattern telling. It suggests that conviction among institutional allocators remains fragile, and that late-week profit-taking or risk-off positioning can undo days of accumulation in a matter of hours.

What makes this picture even more interesting is the contrast with spot ether ETFs. These funds attracted US$103.9 million in net inflows, more than three times what the bitcoin products managed, and they outperformed their larger counterparts for a second consecutive week. Over the past three weeks, ether funds have drawn nearly as much capital as bitcoin ETFs despite holding about one-eighth as much in net assets.

I read this as a clear signal that investors are hunting for the next leg of growth beyond bitcoin. They see Ethereum as the asset with more room to run relative to its current size, and the flow data confirms that appetite in no uncertain terms. The rotation is real, and it carries implications for how we think about portfolio construction in digital assets going forward.

Zooming out to the broader market, the total crypto capitalisation rose 1.31 per cent to US$2.23 trillion over the past 24 hours. The primary engine behind this move is regulatory optimism fuelling institutional flows. I also note a strong 73 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week, which tells me this is not purely a crypto-native rally.

Macro forces are pulling digital assets higher alongside equities, and any investor who treats crypto as a completely isolated asset class is missing half the story. The shared macro-driven move means that traditional risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, and equity market momentum all feed directly into crypto pricing right now.

The regulatory narrative deserves closer attention because I believe it represents the single most powerful catalyst available to this market. Social chatter is rife with rumours of a BlackRock XRP ETF filing, and the CLARITY Act has entered final Senate negotiations. Together, these developments are boosting sentiment for major digital commodities like ETH and XRP. The market is reacting to the prospect of reduced legal uncertainty and expanded ETF products beyond Bitcoin. I think the significance here is hard to overstate.

For years, regulatory ambiguity has kept large pools of institutional capital on the sidelines. If the CLARITY Act passes and establishes a clear digital commodity taxonomy, it removes one of the biggest objections that compliance teams at major firms have raised. We could see a structural shift in how traditional finance engages with crypto, and current pricing may reflect only a fraction of that potential.

Ethereum itself stands as the clearest beneficiary of this environment. ETH significantly outperformed the broader market over the past seven days, gaining 4.17 per cent compared to a 0.82 per cent advance for the wider crypto space. Social sentiment around Ethereum reads as extremely bullish, with traders highlighting positions like a US$63 million long that circulated widely across social platforms.

At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index climbed to 55, indicating that capital is rotating into higher-beta assets beyond the top two names. I see this as a healthy sign for market breadth. When Ethereum leads, and altcoins follow, it typically reflects genuine risk appetite rather than speculative froth concentrated in a single token. The ETH/BTC pair maintaining its strength would confirm continued altcoin leadership, and I will be watching that ratio closely in the sessions ahead.

Looking at the near-term technical picture, the market faces immediate resistance at the recent swing high of US$2.26 trillion. A break above this level, potentially triggered by confirmed positive regulatory news, could open a path toward US$2.32 trillion.

On the downside, failure to hold the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci support at US$2.21 trillion would suggest the current move lacks conviction and risk a pullback into consolidation. I view these levels as the battleground for the coming week. The bulls need a concrete catalyst to push through resistance, and the bears need only patience and a missed regulatory deadline to reclaim control.

My overall read on this market is cautiously bullish. The rise rests on a potent mix of regulatory hope and strong ecosystem performance, particularly from Ethereum. Sentiment has improved meaningfully, and the flow data into ether products supports the thesis that smart money is positioning ahead of clarity.

The move still needs to clear key technical hurdles to sustain momentum, and I do not take that requirement lightly. The question I keep returning to is whether the upcoming week will deliver the regulatory clarity the market is pricing in, or whether this turns out to be a classic buy-the-rumour setup that fades once headlines arrive.

I lean toward the former, but I would never bet the farm on legislative timelines. The data supports optimism. The calendar demands patience. And as always in this market, the traders who manage risk while staying engaged will fare far better than those who swing for the fences on a single headline.

 

Source: https://e27.co/is-ether-quietly-stealing-bitcoins-throne-as-the-institutional-favorite-20260727/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin volume drops 6.14%, and everyone calls a bottom, I disagree

Bitcoin volume drops 6.14%, and everyone calls a bottom, I disagree

Bitcoin sits at US$66,188.15 this morning, down 0.65 per cent over the past 24 hours, and the number tells only a fraction of the story. The cryptocurrency pulled back from a one-month high near US$67,000 as WTI crude oil surged above US$85 and then climbed further toward US$94 per barrel amid an escalating US-Iran conflict now in its second week.

The broader crypto market cap slipped 0.47 per cent alongside Bitcoin, volume contracted 6.14 per cent, and Bitcoin dominance held near 59 per cent with no meaningful capital rotation into altcoins. On the surface, this looks like a gentle consolidation after a recovery rally from July lows.

But when I step back and look at the full macro picture unfolding on July 23, 2026, I struggle to share the optimism that we have found a floor. The global factors stacking up right now suggest Bitcoin has more downside to endure before any sustainable recovery takes shape.

The oil story dominates everything else at this moment. Crude prices above US$94 per barrel represent the highest levels since June, and they carry direct implications for inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. The US-Iran conflict shows no signs of de-escalation as it enters its second week, which means supply disruption risks remain firmly on the table. Higher energy costs feed into transport, manufacturing, and consumer prices across the board. Airlines already face margin compression.

Treasury yields hover near 2026 peaks as bond markets price in the possibility that the Fed keeps rates higher for longer. The July 28 FOMC meeting looms as the next critical catalyst, and if the statement hints at delayed rate cuts or, worse, another hike, risk assets, including Bitcoin, will absorb the blow directly. Bitcoin in this environment behaves exactly like a leveraged tech stock rather than a decoupled store of value, and that correlation works against holders when macro conditions deteriorate.

The equity backdrop reinforces my caution. Wall Street benchmarks finished lower overnight, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slipping as megacap tech earnings delivered mixed signals. Tesla fell around four per cent after missing both revenue and margin estimates. Alphabet reported strong Q2 cloud growth but slid in extended trading as investors baulked at plans to increase capital expenditures. Yes, Super Micro Computer surged 20 per cent on strong AI server margin forecasts, but that single bright spot does not offset the broader disappointment.

The AI narrative that has propped up markets for over one year now faces scrutiny on whether spending translates into returns. When growth stocks wobble, Bitcoin wobbles harder. The 6.14 per cent drop in crypto trading volume suggests buyers have stepped back and lack the conviction to defend current levels. This is not the behaviour of a market that has found its bottom.

Technically, Bitcoin tests its daily pivot near US$66,103 right now. The immediate Fibonacci support sits at US$64,750, representing the 23.6 per cent retracement level. Below that, the US$63,000 to US$63,400 zone serves as the next meaningful floor. Overhead, the 100-day EMA near US$68,000 caps any rally attempt. The structure looks neutral on paper, but I read it as fragile.

A close below US$64,750 opens the trapdoor toward US$63,000, and given the macro headwinds I just described, I think that break becomes more probable with each passing day of elevated oil prices and unresolved geopolitical tension. The recovery channel from July lows remains intact for now, but channels break, and they tend to break in the direction of the prevailing macro wind.

Grayscale research head Zach Pandl offers a more constructive view, suggesting Bitcoin’s recent price low might hold if the Federal Reserve ends interest rate hikes and economic growth remains stable. He treats Bitcoin as a mature asset influenced by growth and Fed policy, rather than by the traditional four-year cycle model, which would predict a longer bear market and deeper declines.

Grayscale also points to the CLARITY Act and Strategy’s improved financial position, including a US$216 million Bitcoin sale that strengthened cash reserves and reduced forced selling risks, as structural positives. I respect that framework, but it relies on the Fed cooperating and growth holding steady. With oil above US$94 and inflation concerns resurfacing, the Fed has every reason to stay hawkish. The conditions Pandl requires for a bottom simply do not exist right now.

SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci argues that Bitcoin will grind higher from here and cannot get much worse. I appreciate the sentiment, but the global picture tells a different story. Mixed Asian markets preparing for a cautious open, a steady US Dollar against the Yen and Euro that signals continued risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions with no resolution timeline all point toward sustained pressure. The AI boom cushions some of the blow in equities, but it does not immunise crypto from a liquidity squeeze if yields push higher.

Here is where I land. Bitcoin at US$66,188.15 reflects a market in pause, not a market in recovery. The 0.65 per cent daily decline understates the vulnerability beneath the surface. Oil above US$94, an active US-Iran conflict, disappointing tech earnings, yields at 2026 peaks, and an FOMC meeting five days away create a cocktail of risk that has not fully priced into crypto.

The 6.14 per cent volume decline confirms that participants are waiting on the sidelines rather than accumulating. Bitcoin dominance at 59 per cent shows no rotation, no excitement, no fresh capital entering the ecosystem. I do not think we have bottomed.

The US$64,750 level will face a serious test before July ends, and if the FOMC disappoints or oil pushes toward US$100, the US$63,000 zone becomes the realistic near-term target. Patience, not optimism, serves holders best in this environment. The macro picture has not given us permission to call a bottom, and until it does, every rally toward US$68,000 looks like a selling opportunity rather than a breakout.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-volume-drops-6-14-and-everyone-calls-a-bottom-i-disagree-20260723/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j