Tag Archives: bitcoin

Why a strong jobs report hit Bitcoin and Ethereum harder than the stock market

Why a strong jobs report hit Bitcoin and Ethereum harder than the stock market

The cryptocurrency sector currently faces macroeconomic headwinds that dictate valuation changes across all major digital tokens. Bitcoin recently declined by 1.34 per cent to US$79,113.15 in a single 24-hour period. Ethereum followed a similar trajectory, dropping 1.17 per cent to trade at US$2,487.12. This synchronised pullback is clear evidence that digital assets no longer operate in an isolated ecosystem. Instead, they function as highly sensitive instruments that react directly to traditional economic indicators and central bank policies.

Market participants must understand these deep correlations to navigate the current environment successfully. Bitcoin currently demonstrates a 93 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week. This extremely high correlation perfectly illustrates my view that top-tier cryptocurrencies now function as macro assets that closely track shifts in liquidity and interest rate expectations.

A surprisingly strong United States employment report triggered this latest wave of selling pressure. The economy added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. This robust labour market information immediately altered market expectations regarding monetary policy. Traders now assign an implied probability of around 60 per cent to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Rising Treasury yields and a strengthening US Dollar naturally put pressure on risk assets across the board. Strong economic data directly contradicts participants’ hopes for a dovish pivot by the central bank.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum react identically to these shifting global liquidity expectations. The second-largest cryptocurrency mirrors this broader beta move, dropping in tandem with the leading digital coin. Buyers and sellers currently maintain a delicate equilibrium as institutional players digest the robust employment numbers. Market participants must recognise that traditional financial metrics currently dictate the pace of changes in digital asset valuations.

This macro-driven selling pressure quickly exposed fragile conditions within the derivatives sector. Bitcoin recently attempted to reclaim the crucial US$80,000 psychological resistance threshold but stalled near US$79,700. This technical rejection sparked a severe cascade of leveraged long liquidations. Total crypto derivatives liquidations hit US$208 million within a single 24-hour window. Overextended long positions accounted for US$119 million of this total selling volume. I always warn participants about the dangers of excessive leverage during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.

High leverage consistently amplifies routine pullbacks into violent localized crashes. This recent liquidation event clearly highlights the risks of overextending bullish positions in the face of strong economic data. Fragile derivatives conditions inevitably punish speculators who ignore the underlying macroeconomic reality. Overextended speculators suffered significant capital losses when the leading digital coin failed to sustain upward momentum above key psychological thresholds.

Bitcoin now faces several critical technical thresholds that will dictate its short-term trajectory. The asset must defend the immediate Fibonacci support at US$79,390, which marks the 61.8 per cent retracement level. A failure to hold this specific line invites a swift test of the recent swing low near US$78,685. The broader sector currently expects a consolidation range of US$78,000 to US$80,500. A definitive break below the US$78,000 support zone risks a deeper drop toward US$77,200 or potentially the US$77,200 to US$77,600 range.

Conversely, buyers who successfully reclaim the US$80,500 threshold could push the valuation toward a new target of US$82,000. Speculators must watch these boundaries closely to gauge underlying momentum and adjust their strategies accordingly. Participants should always respect these major technical barriers and avoid aggressive positioning until clear directional signals emerge from the daily charts.

Ethereum closely mirrors this broader beta move and reacts in the same way to the shifting global liquidity landscape. They currently consolidate within a tight technical range of US$2,450 to US$2,530. The daily relative strength index sits at 63.53, cooling off noticeably from previous overbought conditions. Daily trading volume also fell by 35 per cent, indicating a distinct slowdown in buying intensity across the network. I interpret these metrics as a sign that buyers and sellers currently maintain a delicate equilibrium near the US$2,500 threshold.

The network simply needs time to digest the strong August rally before committing to a definitive directional move. This consolidation phase allows the broader ecosystem to build a stronger foundation for future valuation appreciation. Institutional players utilise these quiet periods to accumulate positions without significantly impacting the daily order books.

Institutional demand provides a crucial foundation for Ethereum despite the current technical cooldown. United States spot ether exchange-traded funds attracted US$218.4 million in net inflows last week. This steady capital injection proves that large-scale players still accumulate the asset during valuation dips. Ethereum’s immediate path depends heavily on the US$2,475 support level and the US$2,550 resistance level.

A break below US$2,475 risks a significant drop toward the next key Fibonacci support at US$2,292 or potentially down to US$2,400. A sustained break above US$2,530 would signal returning strength and trigger the next upward leg. Participants must monitor these specific thresholds to anticipate the next major valuation movement and position their portfolios effectively. Strict adherence to these technical boundaries allows speculators to manage risk efficiently during periods of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.

Underlying institutional strength also supports the broader Bitcoin ecosystem and prevents a total collapse in sentiment. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in a massive US$987 million last week. This remarkable inflow volume demonstrates that traditional finance participants continue to allocate capital to digital tokens despite short-term volatility. The entire crypto ecosystem now eagerly awaits the August Consumer Price Index report arriving on September 11.

This crucial inflation information will directly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and determine the next major sector trend. A hotter inflation print will cement fears of rate hikes and further pressure valuations. A cooler reading might relieve the current macro pressure and allow risk assets to rebound strongly. Observers must prepare for both scenarios before the official information release.

Digital tokens trade almost entirely on global liquidity conditions, interest rate trajectories, and institutional risk appetite. Patience and strict adherence to technical thresholds will consistently reward disciplined speculators in this highly sensitive macro environment. The ongoing stalemate between steady exchange-traded fund inflows and looming central bank uncertainty defines this moment. Traders must strictly manage their risk and avoid aggressive leverage until the macroeconomic picture is fully clear.

Market observers must recognise that traditional financial markets currently dictate the pace of changes in digital asset valuations. Investors who ignore this reality will inevitably suffer unnecessary portfolio drawdowns during periods of intense macroeconomic volatility. The September 11 inflation data will decide whether the market breaks down toward lower support zones or resumes its broader upward trajectory.

 

Source: https://e27.co/why-a-strong-jobs-report-hit-bitcoin-and-ethereum-harder-than-the-stock-market-20260908/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Bitcoin just broke US$81,000: The real reason is not what you think

Bitcoin just broke US$81,000: The real reason is not what you think

Bitcoin climbed 5.08 per cent over 24 hours to US$81,106.29, outpacing the broader crypto market’s 4.83 per cent advance to a US$2.72 trillion total capitalisation. The move did not happen in a vacuum. Bitcoin now trades with a 97 per cent correlation to the S&P 500 and an 86 per cent correlation to gold. Those figures reveal a macro-driven repricing rather than a crypto-specific breakout. When digital assets, equities, and bullion rise together, traders are responding to shifting expectations about Federal Reserve policy and global liquidity.

The main catalyst arrived from a dovish turn in rate expectations. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalled he would be inclined to support holding interest rates steady if inflation data improved. Before those remarks, markets priced in a 63 per cent chance of a September rate hike. Afterward, that probability fell to around 50 per cent. A pause in US-Iran tensions added further relief by easing oil price fears and removing a recent inflation headwind. The White House also contributed dovish comments, reinforcing the message that the Fed would not tighten aggressively.

With Treasury yields no longer threatening to surge, capital flowed back into equities and high-beta assets like Bitcoin. This repricing pushed Bitcoin into near lockstep with the S&P 500, confirming its current role as a macro-sensitive asset. The immediate trigger for the next move comes from the August Non-Farm Payrolls report due on September 4. Soft jobs data would strengthen the dovish case and could extend gains. A strong report would revive fears of a rate hike and put pressure on the entire complex.

The advance also received a powerful boost from a short squeeze in the derivatives market. Traders liquidated over US$415 million in Bitcoin short positions over 24 hours, with US$164 million of that total vanishing in just four hours. A separate measure showed Bitcoin liquidations hitting US$271 million in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for 95 per cent of the total, a 425 per cent surge.

Forced buying by traders covering bearish bets created a feedback loop that accelerated the price climb. This dynamic explains the speed and intensity of the move. The macro news lit the fuse, but leverage did the heavy lifting afterward. Crowded bearish positions unwound in a cascade, and each wave of forced buying pushed prices higher. That mechanical accelerator is not the same as organic spot demand, and it can reverse quickly if momentum stalls.

Sentiment indicators reflected the sudden shift. The Fear and Greed Index jumped to 78, signalling greed and overheated conditions. Influential market voices added fuel to the fire by declaring a crypto supercycle, which fed retail fear of missing out. Intense bullish social media narratives reinforced the move. This kind of euphoria often precedes volatility because latecomers chase the upswing after the initial institutional move.

The derivatives market will show whether leveraged speculation is stabilising or building toward another flush, as reflected in funding rates and open interest changes. The squeeze pushed prices higher, but the market now needs sustained spot buying and exchange-traded fund inflows to confirm the move as more than a one-day event.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin broke above the US$78,000 resistance with high volume, a bullish signal. The next major hurdle sits in the US$83,000 zone. That level aligns with long-term holder supply and previous rejection points. If Bitcoin holds above US$80,000, especially above the US$81,000 breakout level, the path could extend toward US$83,000 to US$85,000.

A clear break above US$83,000 would open the way toward the Fibonacci extension near US$86,500. If Bitcoin fails to hold above US$78,000, the surge likely came primarily from short covering and could fade. In that scenario, a pullback toward the US$78,000 to US$76,000 support zone would be the next test. The market needs a weekly close above US$81,000 to confirm the breakout and attract longer-term buyers.

Exchange-traded fund flows remain the key institutional signal. On September 2, spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of US$101 million. That is a positive sign, but one day does not establish a trend. If spot ETF inflows re-accelerate after the squeeze, they would provide fundamental support above US$80,000 and reduce the risk of a sharp reversal. Without that follow-through, the rally could lose steam once the forced buying from liquidations ends.

The market has seen this pattern before. Macro news triggers a spike, shorts get squeezed, and then the price drifts without new organic demand. The difference this time is the broader macro backdrop. If the Federal Reserve truly pivots to a dovish stance, the liquidity environment could support a longer rally. If the dovish signals prove temporary, the squeeze alone will not hold Bitcoin above US$80,000.

The near-term outlook is bullish but fragile. Bitcoin’s surge rests on two pillars: a macro reprieve and a violent short squeeze. The macro reprieve is real but depends on upcoming data. The August jobs report on September 4 will be the first test. Inflation data and Fed communications will follow.

Any hawkish surprise could unwind the rate cut expectations that underpinned this move. The second pillar, the short squeeze, has already spent much of its force. More than US$415 million in bearish positions are gone, and the Fear and Greed Index at 78 suggests the easy gains from sentiment reversal are behind us. The next leg higher requires spot buyers to step in with conviction.

From my perspective, Bitcoin’s 5.08 per cent move is a legitimate macro-driven breakout, but it is not yet a confirmed trend change. The 97 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 suggests this is a liquidity trade rather than a crypto-specific narrative. The US$101 million ETF inflow on September 2 is encouraging but insufficient on its own.

The real test is the US$83,000 resistance. If Bitcoin clears that level with sustained volume and ETF inflows accelerate, the path to US$86,500 becomes realistic. If Bitcoin rejects US$83,000 and falls back below US$78,000, the rally will look like a short-covering episode that ran out of fuel.

As I said, the next few days will reveal whether this is the start of a new leg or just a powerful bounce within a range. Watch the August jobs report, watch ETF flows, and watch how Bitcoin behaves around US$80,000 to US$81,000. Those signals will tell you more than any single price print.

 

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-just-broke-us81000-the-real-reason-is-not-what-you-think-20260904/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Can Bitcoin defend the critical US$76,500 foundation zone before the September 11 inflation data triggers another massive liquidation cascade?

Can Bitcoin defend the critical US$76,500 foundation zone before the September 11 inflation data triggers another massive liquidation cascade?

Bitcoin currently trades at US$77,374.70, down 1.73 per cent over the last 24 hours. Ethereum mirrors this weakness, sitting at US$2,418.53 after a 2.14 per cent decline. I view this synchronised pullback as a necessary sector correction rather than a fundamental breakdown. Institutional demand remains remarkably robust beneath the surface.

Traditional financial pressures currently dictate the short-term pricing action. Rising energy costs and shifting interest rate expectations create a hostile environment for risk tokens. Traders must navigate this complex landscape by focusing on underlying liquidity rather than daily valuation fluctuations. My analysis suggests that the current selling pressure merely flushes out excessive speculation before the next major directional move.

Global energy markets exert immense pressure on digital assets right now. Brent crude oil prices surged by over four per cent and now trade above US$92 per barrel amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. This energy spike directly fuels inflation concerns across traditional financial sectors. Bond investors reacted to this inflation threat by selling off government debt and pushing Treasury yields to multi-year highs. These rising borrowing costs naturally depress the valuation of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

Despite these intense economic headwinds, institutional buyers continue accumulating digital assets. United States spot exchange-traded funds recorded a massive US$216.7 million net inflow on September 1. This strong institutional demand provides a solid floor for prices. Bitcoin also currently exhibits a 90 per cent correlation with gold. This strong relationship highlights the shared role both assets play as geopolitical and inflation hedges. I believe this persistent institutional accumulation will overpower temporary macroeconomic fears once energy markets stabilise.

Excessive leverage amplified the recent decline in Bitcoin’s price and triggered a violent liquidation cascade. Total perpetual open interest surged 18.72 per cent within a single 24-hour period before the sector reversed. This massive buildup in leveraged positions left the environment highly vulnerable to sudden valuation shifts. The subsequent decline in valuation triggered US$98.71 million in total liquidations.

Long positions bore the brunt of this flush, accounting for US$85.34 million of the liquidation selling. This derivative unwind accelerated the downward momentum, pushing Bitcoin into technically weak territory. The asset is currently testing the lower Bollinger Band near US$77,473, while the relative strength index sits at a weak 40.85. These technical indicators confirm bearish short-term momentum.

The crucial pivot point rests at US$77,382. Bitcoin must reclaim the US$78,262 level to shift the trend back in favour of buyers. A failure to hold the US$76,500 to US$77,000 foundation zone risks a deeper drop toward US$75,000. Market participants now eagerly await the August employment report and the September 11 inflation data to gauge future monetary policy.

Ethereum experienced an even more violent unwind in its derivatives as the broader sector retreated. The second-largest cryptocurrency broke below the critical US$2,400 support level, triggering a massive wave of liquidation selling. Data show that traders lost over US$70 million on long positions in a single hour during this flash crash. The specific Ethereum network recorded US$32.78 million in direct liquidations as the valuation plummeted.

High leverage in the system acted as a powerful accelerator, turning a modest pullback into a sharp decline. This leverage flush occurred alongside intense economic and geopolitical pressures. United States markets currently price in a 67 per cent chance of a September Federal Reserve rate hike. This hawkish monetary expectation pressures all risk assets and forces investors to seek safety.

Ethereum moved strictly as a high-beta risk asset during this downturn and maintained a nearly 1:1 correlation with Bitcoin over the last 24 hours. This synchronised movement proves that chain-specific fundamentals remain intact while macro factors drive the broader sector narrative.

Technical charts for Ethereum reveal a critical juncture for buyers and sellers. The asset is currently testing major support at the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of US$2,340. Bulls must defend this specific valuation point to prevent a much deeper correction.

A successful defence of this foundation level could spark a rebound toward the US$2,500 to US$2,540 resistance zone where significant liquidation clusters currently sit. The daily moving average convergence divergence indicator is on the verge of a bearish crossover, signalling weakening upward momentum. The underlying sector structure from the June low remains completely intact despite the recent volatility.

Traders should closely monitor the open interest metrics to determine if market participants are rebuilding leveraged bets or actively de-risking their portfolios. The United States Non-Farm Payrolls report on September 4 will be the next major economic catalyst. A strong employment print could reinforce hawkish expectations from central banks and sustain downward pressure on digital assets.

The current environment is a classic clash between resilient underlying demand and overwhelming short-term economic headwinds. The path of least resistance currently points downward until key technical foundation levels hold or global financial fears subside. The massive exchange-traded fund inflows prove that large financial institutions still view digital assets as a strategic priority. This structural floor prevents a complete sector collapse and ensures that any major dip will attract aggressive buying interest.

The recent liquidation cascade successfully cleared out over-leveraged speculators and created a healthier foundation for future valuation appreciation. Exchanges always experience violent shakeouts before establishing new long-term trends. This temporary weakness merely separates serious long-term holders from nervous speculators. Savvy investors should use this volatility to accumulate positions rather than panic and exit the space entirely.

The future direction of the digital asset space hinges on upcoming economic data releases and the ability of major cryptocurrencies to defend critical support zones. Bitcoin must hold the US$76,500 to US$77,000 range to avoid a drop to US$75,000. Ethereum needs to reclaim and hold above US$2,400 to invalidate the bearish breakdown.

A break below the US$2,340 Fibonacci level will undoubtedly trigger the next major downward leg. I remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term trajectory of these assets despite the current bearish pressure. The fundamental adoption trends remain incredibly strong while the speculative froth slowly dissipates.

Traders who respect these technical boundaries will capture the most significant gains when the broader financial climate eventually improves and institutional capital returns to the forefront. Patience and strict risk management will reward market participants who navigate this challenging financial environment successfully.

 

Source: https://e27.co/can-bitcoin-defend-the-critical-us76500-foundation-zone-before-the-september-11-inflation-data-triggers-another-massive-liquidation-cascade-20260902/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j