Tag Archives: bitcoin

92% of Bitcoin Liquidations Were Shorts: What Happens When the Squeeze Ends?

92% of Bitcoin Liquidations Were Shorts: What Happens When the Squeeze Ends?

Bitcoin rose 1.51% to $84,055.22 in 24 hours, and Ethereum rose 0.97% to $2,471.00. The total crypto market cap rose 1.36%. A rebound in technology and AI stock sentiment lifted risk appetite across both assets. Bitcoin showed a 79% correlation with the S&P 500, and its 24-hour correlation with the S&P 500 ETF SPY was 0.79. That shared direction matters. My view is that this rally is real but narrow and derivative-heavy. It supports a cautiously bullish stance, not a conviction breakout call.

The initial driver came from technology and AI sentiment. SpaceX revenue soared 161%, and Super Micro Computer offered positive guidance. Those earnings signals revived broader risk appetite, and that optimism flowed into crypto. Bitcoin’s tight link to the S&P 500 confirms that its short-term direction remains tied to traditional market sentiment, especially around growth and technology narratives. The next test comes from upcoming earnings at major technology firms such as Meta and Tesla. Those reports could sustain the current mood or reverse it. If you have been reading what I wrote recently, I said to treat technology earnings as a near-term macro input, not background noise.

Bitcoin also received a mechanical push from a short squeeze. The asset saw $84.26 million in total liquidations over 24 hours, and shorts made up 92% of that amount. Rising prices forced leveraged short sellers to buy back positions, and that forced buying created a feedback loop that accelerated the upward climb. This matters because derivative market mechanics amplified the rally, not just organic spot demand. That distinction shapes my view. A squeeze can drive a fast climb, but it can also increase volatility and leave the market vulnerable once forced buying runs out. Watch for sustained high funding rates or a sharp contraction in open interest, either of which could signal the squeeze is running out of fuel. This is more tactical rather than structural. A squeeze can pull price toward resistance, and it can also fade once the forced buying stops. I would give more weight to spot demand than to liquidation data when judging whether the rally can last.

On price structure, Bitcoin is testing the upper boundary of a well-defined $80,000 to $87,000 range. The 7-day simple moving average sits near $83,100. If Bitcoin holds above that level and breaks $87,000, it could target $88,000. A rejection could bring a retest of the $80,000 support. The near-term triggers are clear. A daily close above $84,200 would confirm near-term bullish momentum, while a close below $82,000 would signal bearish momentum. The key macro trigger is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on October 28. Bitcoin is consolidating and awaiting a macro catalyst for its next decisive move. I would want a decisive close above $87,000 after the Fed announcement before treating this as a breakout rather than a range trade. That plan keeps risk defined because the range gives both sides a clear line in the sand. My humble advice is not to chase the climb into $87,000 before the Fed meeting, and I would not treat a single close above $84,200 as proof of a new trend. The central bank decision deserves more weight than 1 session of price action.

Ethereum has its own supply-side catalyst. On October 20 to 21, Tom Lee’s Bitmine staked an additional 159,728 ETH worth approximately $390 million. That brought its total staked holdings to about 5.23 million ETH. This action locks a significant portion of supply, reduces potential sell pressure, and signals strong institutional belief in Ethereum as a yield-generating asset. Large long-term holders are actively choosing to earn yield rather than sell. That provides underlying demand support. The watch point is continued growth in the staking queue, which would indicate sustained demand to lock supply. It gives Ethereum a firmer floor than pure sentiment alone would provide, though a supply lock does not guarantee an immediate breakout.

Ethereum also benefited from the broader market lift. The total crypto market cap rose 1.36%, led by Bitcoin’s 1.51% gain. A rebound in global technology and AI sentiment supported the move, with strong earnings forecasts from companies such as SpaceX helping the mood. Ethereum saw $47.99 million in liquidations over 24h, with shorts comprising the majority. That suggests a squeeze added momentum. Ethereum did not rise alone. It benefited from a risk-on shift in correlated assets. The key watch point is how U.S. equity markets react to upcoming technology earnings from Meta and Tesla, as those reactions can provide continued correlation cues.

Ethereum now faces immediate resistance at the psychological $2,500 level. A sustained break above that level, especially on a daily close, could open the path to the 30-day simple moving average at $2,579. The scheduled activation of Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet upgrade on October 26 could renew developer and investor focus. Failure to hold $2,470 risks a pullback toward the recent low near $2,380. A daily close above $2,500 would confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below $2,380 would signal renewed weakness. My view is that Ethereum needs spot buying volume to accompany a break above $2,500. Without that volume, a rejection would suggest the rally came primarily from derivatives positioning and short covering.

My overall point of view is cautiously bullish on both assets, with a preference for patience over chasing. Bitcoin’s improved risk sentiment and a derivatives squeeze provided a clear catalyst, but the price stayed within a multi-week range and showed little breakout conviction. Ethereum’s substantial supply lock-up and favorable macro backdrop provide a solid floor, but it must break above $2,500 to sustain momentum. The key watch is whether Bitcoin can decisively close above $87,000 after the Fed’s policy announcement and whether Ethereum can break $2,500 with rising spot volume. If those conditions fail, both markets risk reverting to range midpoints or retesting support. The data supports a constructive stance, but not complacency. Macro sentiment and spot demand matter more than a short squeeze, and I’d track those most closely.

My stance leans toward selective exposure rather than aggressive accumulation. The data point to a constructive backdrop, but also to fragile momentum. A trader can respect the range, wait for confirmation, and let the Fed decision and spot volume decide the next leg.

 

https://e27.co/92-of-bitcoin-liquidations-were-shorts-what-happens-when-the-squeeze-ends-20261022/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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Institutional Buyers Face a Massive Test at the $81,000 Bitcoin Support Level

Institutional Buyers Face a Massive Test at the $81,000 Bitcoin Support Level
Bitcoin fell 2.28% to $81,370.58. The broader digital asset ecosystem mirrored this downward trajectory, dropping 2.22% to a total valuation of $2.74 trillion. An unexpectedly hot United States inflation report drove this widespread selloff across all major digital exchanges. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index data on October 14. This official government report showed the headline index rose 3.7% year-over-year, beating the consensus forecast of 3.6%. Core inflation also surprised veteran investors by rising 0.3% month-over-month, above the strict expectation of 0.2%. These stubborn inflation numbers immediately altered investor sentiment and sparked a broad retreat from speculative risk assets. Retail traders and large institutional funds reduced their exposure to protect their capital.
Investors now anticipate a much more hawkish stance from the central bank due to persistent, sticky inflation readings. Higher interest rates directly reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets and force capital into safer government bonds. Policymakers will likely maintain elevated borrowing costs for a significantly longer period to combat the stubborn price increases across the real economy. Traders eagerly await the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October 27 and October 28. The central bank committee will evaluate these fresh inflation metrics before making its final policy decision. Traditional equity exchanges and digital assets now move in near-perfect lockstep during major macroeconomic events. Bitcoin currently has a high correlation of 96.6% with the S&P 500 index. The total cryptocurrency space exhibits an even stronger 97% correlation with the broader stock market. Professional traders increasingly view digital assets as high-beta extensions of traditional technology equities. This tight mathematical relationship means any negative macroeconomic news instantly pressures token prices and forces algorithmic selling.
Technical indicators confirm the overwhelming bearish momentum across the entire digital asset landscape. Bitcoin recently broke below a very tight trading range and violated crucial historical support levels. Analysts previously identified the $81,900-$82,000 price range as a vital floor for the leading digital asset. The absolute failure to hold this specific area accelerated the downward price movement and triggered automated sell orders. The 50-day moving average currently sits at $82,636 and now acts as formidable overhead resistance for any attempted relief rallies. Aggressive short sellers completely control the immediate trend and actively push the price toward lower liquidity pools. If the asset fails to reclaim the broken support zone in the coming days, aggressive sellers will likely drive the price down to test the $78,000 mark. A deeper, more painful correction could easily push the valuation into the $78,000 to $79,250 support range, where long-term buyers might finally step in to accumulate more coins.
Excessive leverage in the complex derivatives market significantly amplified the recent drop in spot prices. The sudden macroeconomic shift forced the rapid liquidation of heavily leveraged trading positions across multiple global exchanges. Crypto derivatives platforms processed over $71.16 million in Bitcoin liquidations within a single 24-hour period. This massive forced selling represents a staggering 52.33% increase from the previous trading session. Bullish traders absorbed the vast majority of this financial pain, as long liquidations specifically totaled $59.15 million. These forced margin closures created a violent cascading effect that pushed the spot price even lower in a very short timeframe. The derivatives sector currently shows a positive funding rate of +0.0048%. This metric indicates that optimistic buyers still pay a premium to hold long positions despite the recent, severe price decline. Smart money traders need to see a complete stabilization in open interest to confirm the market has successfully flushed out the excess leverage and established a firm base.
The timing of this macroeconomic data release significantly worsened digital asset price action. The inflation report hit the trading desks during a period of notoriously thin weekend liquidity. Market makers and large institutional trading desks typically reduce their activity during Saturdays and Sundays. This lack of deep order book liquidity allows relatively small sell orders to cause massive price slippage. The combination of forced derivative liquidations and thin weekend order books created a perfect storm for volatility. Retail traders watched their portfolios shrink rapidly as the market lacked the necessary depth to absorb aggressive selling pressure. This structural market vulnerability highlights the immense risks of holding highly leveraged positions during major macroeconomic announcements. The total cryptocurrency capitalization faces its own critical technical test on the daily charts. The aggregate valuation recently defended the crucial $2.67 trillion support level against aggressive selling pressure from nervous participants looking to exit their risky bets.
Technical analysts recognize this specific price point as the exact 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent major swing high. A sustained break below this crucial floor would expose the entire digital asset ecosystem to severe downside risks and panic selling. Aggressive bears would then target the yearly swing low situated precisely at $2.6 trillion. Conversely, a successful and decisive defense of this support zone could spark a powerful relief rally across the board. Confident buyers might then push the total market capitalization back toward the 50% Fibonacci level at $2.77 trillion. The overall structural health of the digital asset ecosystem depends heavily on maintaining these aggregate valuation thresholds and demonstrating underlying buyer demand. The immediate future of the cryptocurrency sector hinges entirely on the upcoming economic data releases. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the highly anticipated Producer Price Index report later today, October 15, to provide further clarity on wholesale inflation trends.
This specific data point serves as the final major inflation metric before the central bank convenes for its crucial policy meeting. A softer reading could provide immediate relief to battered risk assets and spark a short-term technical rebound. Another hot inflation print will undoubtedly extend the current aggressive selloff and drive prices to new local lows. I view the current market environment as a classic macro downdraft, in which stubborn inflation fears trigger a distinct flight from risk. Institutional buyers must step in to defend the $81,000 support level and stabilize the bleeding across major trading pairs. The trading action will soon reveal whether smart money views this dip as a prime buying opportunity or if more deleveraging awaits impatient retail traders. Traders must closely monitor daily closing prices to confirm the prevailing directional trend. A daily close below $81,000 will confirm further downside toward lower support zones and validate the bearish thesis.

 

Source: https://e27.co/institutional-buyers-face-a-massive-test-at-the-us81000-bitcoin-support-level-20261015/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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The $84,245 Resistance Is Hours Away From Being Tested. Will Buyers Show Up or Fold?

The $84,245 Resistance Is Hours Away From Being Tested. Will Buyers Show Up or Fold?

Bitcoin rose 0.89% to $83,264.98 over the past 24 hours, a gain that looks modest compared with the 1.12% increase in the total crypto market cap. This relationship matters. The largest digital asset did not climb because of a regulatory breakthrough or a huge institutional purchase. It climbed because capital flowed into the asset class as a whole. That is beta-driven movement, and it reveals a market running on shared sentiment rather than independent conviction. The Fear and Greed Index sat at 54, a neutral reading that captures the mood well. Bitcoin dominance edged up to 59.8%, indicating that money still favors the largest token, while social sentiment for Bitcoin registered at 5.43 out of 10. Those numbers describe cautious participation, not aggressive risk-taking.

The broader market data reinforces that picture. Total crypto market cap rose 0.79% to $2.8 trillion in the same window. That figure and the 1.12% rise in the wider crypto market tell slightly different stories depending on the measure, but both point in the same direction. Buyers are present. They are not rushing. In my assessment, this is a low-conviction advance. It can continue as long as macro conditions remain calm, and it can reverse quickly if a stronger force arrives.

Market structure offered secondary support. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rose 3.78%, a moderate increase that suggests growing participation without dangerous leverage. More importantly, 24-hour liquidations fell 73.85% to $44.26 million. That drop in forced selling points to a less crowded market. The recent past was far more violent. A leverage flush across crypto derivatives cleared roughly $696 million in positions over 24 hours, mostly from longs. Bitcoin slipped below $83,000 during that episode and then reclaimed the level. The current data shows a market that has absorbed the flush and now carries lighter positioning. That condition reduces the immediate risk of a liquidation cascade.

Technical levels gave traders a clear map. Bitcoin held above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $82,877. That level comes from the recent swing low at $80,963 to the swing high at $84,061. Respect for that retracement signals that buyers remain willing to step in at key zones. The $82,500 area has become the line in the sand for the short term. If price stays above it, the recovery structure remains intact, and a retest of resistance near $84,245 becomes realistic. A decisive break below $82,500 would weaken that structure and expose the next major support near $81,500. Glassnode has cited that level as the average cost basis for US spot ETF investors. It has already formed support 2 times in recent sessions, which gives it added weight. ETF holders who bought near that average cost are watching closely, and a sustained breach could push them to protect capital.

Sector rotation added another layer. Privacy assets surged by 3.96%, indicating that risk appetite extends beyond Bitcoin. Major narratives such as Layer 1 posted only modest gains. Positive ecosystem news also helped. Ripple partnered with Stripe-owned Privy to bring embedded wallets to the XRP Ledger. That integration will allow developers to add XRPL wallets to applications without having to build the infrastructure themselves. It supports XRP, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, and other assets on the network. The collaboration also extends to emerging use cases, such as AI agents making payments via the x402 protocol. This news is specific to 1 ecosystem, but it adds to the broader sense that crypto infrastructure continues to mature even as prices trade in a range.

The total market cap is testing its pivot point at $2.8 trillion. Immediate Fibonacci resistance sits at $2.85 trillion. Support rests near $2.76 trillion. Those levels frame the near-term battle. A sustained move above $2.85 trillion would confirm that buyers are willing to push beyond the current range. A failure to hold $2.8 trillion would suggest the advance lacks staying power.

The immediate trigger is the September US Consumer Price Index report due today, October 14. Economists expect headline inflation to rise from 3.4% to roughly 3.6% or 3.7% year over year. Core inflation is expected to hold near 2.4% to 2.5%. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on October 27 and 28 looms large, and this inflation print will shape rate expectations before that decision. A softer reading could support risk assets and give Bitcoin the momentum to challenge $84,245. A hotter reading could trigger a sell-off that pushes price below $82,500 and toward $81,500.

My own view is that this is a holding pattern. The market is coiled for a directional move once the data lands. Traders have not committed heavily to either side. The decline in liquidations means the fuel for a sharp forced move has diminished. That does not remove volatility. It changes its character. The market is more likely to respond to the CPI print with a sustained trend than a violent whipsaw.

Bitcoin’s path depends on whether inflation data confirms the disinflation story that has supported risk assets this year or introduces fresh uncertainty. If Bitcoin holds $82,500 after the release and pushes above $84,245, it would signal that buyers are willing to commit at higher prices. If it breaks below $81,500, the conversation shifts to deeper support and a more defensive posture. For now, the range between $82,500 and $84,245 defines the near term. The total market cap needs to sustain above $2.8 trillion to keep the broader advance alive. A cooler CPI print could provide the clarity for a breakout. A hot print could reinforce the range and send traders back to support. This is a market waiting for macro data to choose a direction, and the next few hours will matter far more than the modest gain of the past day.

 

Source: https://e27.co/the-us84245-resistance-is-hours-away-from-being-tested-will-buyers-show-up-or-fold-20261014/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author. The latest book is Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence.

www.anndy.com
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