Global markets react to US-China trade talks: Financial markets respond with cautious optimism

Global markets react to US-China trade talks: Financial markets respond with cautious optimism

Global financial markets are currently abuzz with cautious optimism as trade negotiations between the United States and China kicked off with a positive tone at Lancaster House in London. The first day of talks has sparked hope among investors, who have been eagerly awaiting signs of détente in the long-standing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

US President Donald Trump has fuelled this optimism, noting that the negotiations are “doing well,” a statement that has reverberated across financial hubs worldwide. This development is particularly significant given the historical backdrop of US-China trade relations, which have been fraught with challenges over the past decade.

Since 2018, the two nations have engaged in a series of retaliatory tariffs, impacting billions of dollars in goods and sending shockwaves through global supply chains. The spectre of an all-out trade war has loomed large, threatening economic growth and market stability. The current round of talks, which builds on the progress made in Geneva last month, offers a glimmer of hope for de-escalation and a potential resolution that could bolster confidence in the global economy.

The negotiations are delving into critical issues with far-reaching implications. A key focal point is the US signalling a willingness to lift restrictions on certain technology exports, a move that could significantly benefit American tech firms reliant on international markets. In exchange, China appears poised to ease limits on rare earth shipments, vital materials that underpin industries such as electronics, renewable energy, and defence.

This quid pro quo underscores the high stakes involved—technology exports are a cornerstone of US economic competitiveness, while rare earths are indispensable for modern manufacturing. Should these talks succeed, the ripple effects could stabilise bilateral trade and alleviate some of the pressures that have weighed on global markets for years.

Financial markets respond with cautious optimism

The positive signals emanating from London have already begun to influence financial markets. On Monday, US stock indices closed mostly higher, reflecting a measured but hopeful response from investors. The Nasdaq Composite led the gains, rising 0.31 per cent, buoyed by its heavy weighting in technology stocks that stand to benefit from eased trade restrictions.

The S&P 500 edged up by 0.09 per cent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average held steady, suggesting a wait-and-see approach among some market participants. This mixed performance highlights a broader sentiment of cautious optimism—investors are encouraged by the trade talk developments but remain mindful of the need for tangible outcomes.

In the bond market, US Treasury yields dipped as investors sought to strike a balance between risk and safety. The two year Treasury yield fell by 4.0 basis points, and the 10-year yield dropped by 2.0 basis points. This decline indicates that, despite the upbeat trade news, some investors are still hedging their bets by turning to the relative security of government bonds. The interplay between risk assets, such as stocks, and safe-haven assets, like bonds, illustrates the nuanced mood in the markets—hopeful yet prudent.

Currency and commodity markets have also been affected. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, slipped 0.25 per cent to close at 98.94. A weaker dollar often boosts commodities priced in the greenback, and this was evident as gold rose 0.8 per cent and Brent crude oil gained 0.7 per cent.

These upticks reflect reduced demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, a shift driven by the improved risk sentiment stemming from the trade talks. Meanwhile, Asian equity markets opened higher on Tuesday, riding the wave of optimism, and US equity index futures suggest Wall Street is poised for a positive start, indicating that the momentum is carrying forward.

Bitcoin in focus: Consolidation and bullish signals

Amid these global developments, Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is carving out its own narrative. Currently in a consolidation phase with a market capitalisation of approximately US$2.15 trillion, Bitcoin is holding steady above the US$100,000 mark, trading around US$108,000.

Investor sentiment remains robustly bullish, supported by a prevalent “buy the dip” strategy, where price declines are seen as buying opportunities. This resilience is noteworthy, especially as Bitcoin navigates a complex web of macroeconomic and geopolitical influences.

This week, the cryptocurrency market is laser-focused on upcoming US economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. These inflation indicators could have significant implications for Bitcoin’s trajectory.

If the data reveal a continued slowdown in inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting, it might pave the way for a more dovish monetary stance. A less hawkish Fed could further weaken the dollar, enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative asset and potentially driving its price higher.

Bitcoin’s price movements have also been influenced by underlying political factors. Recent tensions between President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk had previously cast a shadow over crypto pricing, but Bitcoin has since erased those losses, showcasing its capacity to rebound from external shocks. From a technical standpoint, the cryptocurrency is displaying encouraging signs.

It has recently broken above its 10-day and 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), key indicators of short-term momentum that suggest potential for further gains. Additionally, Bitcoin found support at its 50-day EMA, a level that has historically acted as a price floor during corrections, and it remains well above the psychologically significant US$100,000 threshold.

Recent price action has seen Bitcoin break out of a descending channel to the upside, a pattern that often signals the end of a retracement and the start of a new uptrend. For this rally to gain traction, Bitcoin must hold above approximately US$106,929, with the next target being its previous highs around US$112,030.

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s implied volatility has plummeted to its lowest level in a year, coinciding with the resumption of US-China trade talks. This drop suggests a period of market calm, possibly as traders adopt a wait-and-see stance pending the outcome of the talks. Historically, low volatility has often preceded sharp price movements, hinting at a potential breakout on the horizon.

Bitcoin’s growing allure as a neutral reserve asset amid geopolitical tensions adds another layer to its story. Some investors see it as a hedge against currency weaponisation and economic uncertainty, thanks to its decentralised nature and capped supply of 21 million coins. Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin is immune to government manipulation, making it an attractive option in a world of shifting power dynamics.

However, its historical volatility and regulatory uncertainties remain stumbling blocks for those skeptical of its reserve asset potential. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency’s staying power and increasing institutional embrace suggest it’s carving out a lasting role in the financial ecosystem.

BlackRock’s IBIT: A milestone in crypto adoption

A striking development in the cryptocurrency space is the meteoric rise of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). As the largest Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) on the market, IBIT has amassed US$70 billion in assets in just 341 days since its debut—a record-breaking feat that outpaces any other ETF in history.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas notes that IBIT achieved this milestone five times faster than State Street’s gold ETF, which took 1,691 days to reach a similar level. Among the 12 available Bitcoin ETFs, IBIT stands head and shoulders above competitors like Fidelity’s FBTC (US$20 billion) and Grayscale’s GBTC (just under US$20 billion).

This rapid ascent underscores a surging institutional appetite for Bitcoin and highlights the demand for regulated investment vehicles that simplify crypto exposure. For many investors, ETFs like IBIT eliminate the complexities of direct ownership—such as managing private keys or navigating exchanges—while offering a familiar entry point into the digital asset space. The success of IBIT is a clear sign that cryptocurrencies are becoming more entwined with traditional finance, bridging the gap between fringe innovation and mainstream acceptance.

Conclusion: A web of interconnected dynamics

The current economic landscape vividly illustrates the interconnectedness of global trade, financial markets, and cryptocurrencies. The positive tone struck in the US-China trade talks has injected a dose of optimism into risk sentiment, lifting stock markets, nudging bond yields lower, softening the dollar, and propping up commodities.

Simultaneously, Bitcoin is charting its own course, buoyed by technical strength, macroeconomic catalysts, and growing institutional interest epitomised by IBIT’s triumph.

As the trade negotiations—set to span at least two days—unfold and key economic data loom, the financial world remains on edge, poised for the next chapter in this multifaceted saga. Whether it’s the stabilisation of global trade or the maturation of the crypto market, these developments signal a pivotal moment in the evolution of our interconnected financial system.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-react-to-us-china-trade-talks-financial-markets-respond-with-cautious-optimism-20250610/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

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US-China trade deadline: Markets brace for impact

US-China trade deadline: Markets brace for impact

The Trump administration has issued a directive for countries to submit their best offers on trade negotiations by June 4, 2025, signalling an intent to expedite discussions with multiple trade partners. This deadline introduces a pivotal moment that could either pave the way for resolution or escalate existing frictions, further influencing market behaviour.

At the heart of this economic narrative lies the ongoing US-China trade dispute, a saga that has seen periodic escalations and temporary reprieves over recent years. The latest chapter involves heightened rhetoric and the looming deadline set by US officials, which has rekindled fears of tariff impositions or retaliatory measures.

The Trump administration’s push to accelerate trade talks is a strategic move aimed at securing favourable terms swiftly, but it also amplifies the stakes. Investors are left to ponder whether this pressure will yield constructive agreements or deepen the divide, particularly with China, whose economic policies and responses remain critical variables in the global equation.

The uncertainty is palpable, as markets historically react sharply to any whiff of trade war escalation, given the interconnectedness of global supply chains and trade flows.

Simultaneously, the US factory sector has delivered a sobering reality check. Recent data revealed weaker-than-expected performance, with manufacturing activity faltering amid softening demand and supply chain pressures. This downturn is significant because the manufacturing sector serves as a bellwether for broader economic health in the United States, the world’s largest economy.

The disappointing figures have fuelled concerns that the US might be losing momentum at a time when global growth is already under scrutiny. This development not only contributes to the subdued risk sentiment but also raises questions about the Federal Reserve’s next moves, as policymakers weigh the balance between supporting growth and managing inflationary pressures.

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, a voting member of the 2025 Federal Open Market Committee, has offered a measured perspective on the situation. He suggested that the Fed could proceed with interest rate cuts if the uncertainty surrounding trade policy dissipates, a statement that hints at a readiness to ease monetary conditions under the right circumstances.

Goolsbee also remarked that recent economic data has shown “surprisingly little impact so far” from the trade tensions, implying that the US economy has, to some extent, weathered the storm thus far. This cautiously optimistic tone contrasts with the market’s unease, highlighting a disconnect between official assessments and investor sentiment that often characterises periods of transition.

Despite the overarching caution, US stock markets managed to defy gravity on Monday, closing the session in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 0.08 per cent, the S&P 500 climbed 0.41 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.67 per cent. This resilience is noteworthy, especially as the CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the “fear index,” eased to 18.36 from 18.57.

While still above its long-term average, the VIX’s decline suggests a slight tempering of immediate market anxiety. However, this uptick in equities stands in contrast to broader global trends, as Asian equity indices closed mostly lower and continued to slide into the next day, while US equity futures signalled a weaker opening ahead. This divergence underscores the uneven impact of risk sentiment across regions and asset classes.

The bond market, meanwhile, painted a different picture. US Treasury yields rose across the maturity spectrum, with the 30-year yield briefly touching the psychologically significant five per cent mark. The 10-year yield increased by 4.0 basis points to settle at 4.440 per cent, and the two year yield rose by 3.9 basis points to 3.937 per cent.

This upward movement in yields reflects a shift in investor expectations, potentially driven by concerns over inflation or anticipation of tighter monetary policy down the road. Higher yields typically indicate that bond investors are demanding greater compensation for holding government debt, a sign that confidence in the economic outlook might be wavering or that inflationary pressures are creeping into the calculus.

In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index experienced a notable decline, dropping 0.63 per cent to its lowest close since April 21, 2025. This weakening of the dollar is a critical development, as it influences everything from trade competitiveness to commodity pricing. The dollar’s slide could be attributed to the confluence of trade uncertainties and shifting monetary policy expectations, which have diminished its appeal as a safe-haven currency in this instance.

Conversely, gold seized the opportunity to shine, rebounding by a robust 2.8 per cent. This surge aligns with gold’s traditional role as a refuge during times of geopolitical tension and currency depreciation, reinforcing its status as a barometer of investor unease.

Commodities offered additional insights into the market’s mood. Brent crude oil prices climbed 2.9 per cent to US$65 per barrel, a move that defies the OPEC+ decision to unwind an additional 411,000 barrels per day of output cuts in July.

This rise suggests that factors beyond supply adjustments—such as demand expectations, geopolitical risks, or currency effects—are driving oil prices higher. The resilience of oil in the face of increased production highlights the complexity of the current environment, where traditional supply-demand dynamics are overlaid with broader macroeconomic currents.

The cryptocurrency market, often a wild card in financial narratives, also made headlines. Bitcoin, after a meteoric 50 per cent surge over the past 45 days that propelled it to a record peak of US$111,880, shed nearly eight per cent in a sharp correction. This pullback, the first significant retreat since its April lows of US$74,501, follows a period of remarkably steady gains, as noted in the latest Bitfinex Alpha report.

Analysts have flagged potential turbulence in Bitcoin derivatives markets, where options open interest recently hit a staggering US$49.4 billion before retreating to US$39 billion post-May expiry. This peak, coupled with a spike in perpetual futures open interest near all-time highs, points to heightened speculative activity and a subsequent flushing out of leverage. Such dynamics suggest that Bitcoin traders are girding for volatility, a not-uncommon scenario for an asset known for its dramatic price swings.

Amid this turbulence, Strategy (MSTR), a firm with a well-documented Bitcoin strategy, doubled down on its commitment. The company acquired an additional 705 BTC for US$75 million, boosting its total holdings to 580,955 BTC at an average purchase price of US$70,023 per Bitcoin.

This latest purchase, executed at US$106,495 per BTC, was financed through at-the-market equity offerings via its perpetual preferred share classes STRK and STRF. Strategy’s unwavering accumulation reflects a belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value, even as short-term price fluctuations test the market’s resolve.

In a contrasting corporate narrative, Meta shareholders overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to consider Bitcoin as a treasury asset, with 95 per cent voting against it and less than one per cent in favour, per a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. This decisive rebuff underscores a preference for traditional financial strategies over speculative ventures into cryptocurrency.

Yet, Meta’s stock surged 3.6 per cent on news of its plan to deploy a fully AI-driven advertising engine by 2026, signaling that investors are far more enthusiastic about the company’s technological ambitions than its potential dalliance with Bitcoin.

In my view, the subdued global risk sentiment is a rational response to the twin pressures of US-China trade tensions and faltering US factory performance. The Trump administration’s June 4 deadline injects urgency into an already fraught situation, creating a high-stakes environment where outcomes remain uncertain.

A successful resolution could bolster confidence, but any misstep risks deepening economic fissures, particularly given China’s pivotal role in global trade. The manufacturing data, meanwhile, serves as a warning sign that the US economy may not be as robust as hoped, amplifying calls for policy intervention.

The Federal Reserve’s stance, as articulated by Goolsbee, strikes me as pragmatic yet cautious. The prospect of rate cuts contingent on trade clarity is a sensible approach, but the uptick in Treasury yields suggests that markets are already factoring in inflationary risks or a potential hawkish pivot. This tension between Fed rhetoric and market pricing could foreshadow challenges ahead, especially if economic indicators continue to soften.

Market reactions are a mixed bag. The resilience of US stocks is encouraging, but the broader global picture—evident in weaker Asian markets and US futures—hints at pervasive caution. The dollar’s decline and gold’s rally signal a flight to safety, while oil’s strength amid OPEC+ adjustments points to underlying demand or risk premiums at play.

In the crypto realm, Bitcoin’s correction feels like a natural pause after an extraordinary run, though Strategy’s steadfast accumulation contrasts sharply with Meta’s shareholder conservatism, illustrating divergent views on digital assets.

Ultimately, we’re in a period of flux where vigilance is paramount. Trade talks, economic data, and Fed decisions will steer the course, and while opportunities exist, the risks are equally pronounced. Investors would do well to stay informed and agile as this story unfolds.

 

Source: https://e27.co/us-china-trade-deadline-markets-brace-for-impact-20250603/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j

Economic headwinds: Trade wars, slowing growth, and China’s quiet nod to Bitcoin

Economic headwinds: Trade wars, slowing growth, and China’s quiet nod to Bitcoin

A rich tapestry of interconnected issues—global risk sentiment, Trump’s trade war, a slowing US economy, and Bitcoin’s potential as a reserve asset—that demand a thorough and nuanced analysis.

With markets in flux and new data points emerging daily, I’ll weave together the facts, figures, and broader implications to provide a comprehensive view of where we stand and where we might be headed. My perspective is informed not only by the latest market movements but also by a belief—echoed in my earlier writings—that corrections are a natural and necessary part of any asset’s journey toward a sustainable bull run.

Let’s begin with the global risk sentiment, which has noticeably pulled back in recent days. Investors, once buoyed by cautious optimism, are now paring back their enthusiasm as legal uncertainties surrounding President Trump’s trade war cast a shadow over the markets.

The trade war, a hallmark of Trump’s economic policy, has been a rollercoaster of tariffs, negotiations, and legal battles. Just when it seemed the bulk of his tariff agenda might unravel due to judicial challenges, a federal appeals court stepped in, offering a temporary reprieve by allowing the tariffs to remain in effect.

This ruling has had an immediate impact on equity markets. Overnight, the S&P 500 rose by 0.4 per cent, the Dow Jones by 0.3 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.4 per cent—modest gains that hinted at resilience. Yet, much of that advance was trimmed as the court’s decision sank in, reminding investors that the tariff saga is far from over. The prolonged uncertainty is a weight on market sentiment, as the specter of future legal reversals looms large, threatening to disrupt supply chains and corporate planning further.

Compounding this unease is the state of the US economy, which is showing unmistakable signs of strain. Data reveals that the economy shrank at the start of the year, a contraction driven by weaker consumer spending and a more pronounced drag from trade than initially estimated. Consumer spending, the backbone of the US economy, is faltering as households feel the pinch of higher costs—some of which can be traced back to the tariffs themselves.

Businesses, too, are grappling with increased input costs and disrupted trade flows, which have dampened investment and growth. This economic slowdown is not just a domestic concern; it reverberates globally, amplifying the risk-off mood as investors reassess their exposure to US assets.

Across the globe, other economic signals are adding layers of complexity. In Japan, inflation has surged to its highest level in two years, fueled by rising energy prices and persistent supply chain bottlenecks. This inflationary spike, paired with robust wage growth, is stoking speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might raise interest rates in the second half of 2025.

For years, the BOJ has maintained an ultra-accommodative stance, but these pressures may force a pivot. If the BOJ does tighten policy, it could strengthen the yen, shift capital flows, and influence global bond yields—a development that would ripple through markets already on edge.

In the bond market, we’re seeing a clear flight to safety. US Treasuries have rallied, with the 2-year yield dropping by 5.2 basis points and the 10-year yield falling by 5.9 basis points. This uptick in Treasury prices reflects growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates to counteract the economic slowdown. The latest labor market data bolsters this view: recurring applications for US jobless benefits have spiked to their highest level since November 2021, hinting at a potential rise in unemployment.

For traders, this is a red flag—a sign that the Fed may need to step in sooner rather than later to shore up the economy. Lower yields on Treasuries signal not just a haven demand but also a recalibration of monetary policy expectations, with implications for everything from mortgage rates to corporate borrowing costs.

Turning to currencies and commodities, the picture is equally telling. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has held steady in early trading, down just 0.6 per cent, a resilience that underscores its safe-haven status amid global turmoil. Gold, another classic refuge, has climbed above US$3,300 per ounce, up 0.9 per cent, as investors seek to diversify and hedge against both inflation and uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Brent crude has slipped 1.2 per cent to just below US$65 per barrel, a decline tied to worries about slowing demand—particularly from a faltering US economy—and anticipation of OPEC+ decisions on output. These commodity shifts highlight the push-and-pull between haven assets and growth-sensitive ones, a dynamic that mirrors the broader risk sentiment.

Equity markets outside the US are feeling the strain as well. Asian shares fell in early trading, reflecting the global contagion of uncertainty, while US equity index futures suggest a 0.3 per cent lower open for American stocks. This synchronised retreat underscores how interconnected today’s markets are—legal rulings in Washington, economic data from Tokyo, and policy whispers from Beijing can collectively sway sentiment from Wall Street to Shanghai.

And then there’s Bitcoin, which brings us to one of the most fascinating subplots in this narrative. China’s International Monetary Institution (IMI), a state-backed think tank housed within the prestigious Renmin University, has quietly thrust Bitcoin into the spotlight. In a republished article, the IMI describes Bitcoin as “transitioning from a speculative asset to a strategic reserve asset.” This is no small statement, even if it stops short of an official endorsement.

The IMI, founded in 2009 to explore monetary finance theory and policy, carries weight—its leadership includes senior academics and advisers with ties to China’s policymaking elite. For a country that has historically cracked down on cryptocurrencies, this subtle nod to Bitcoin’s potential is a seismic shift. It’s not a central bank proclamation or a legislative green light, but it’s a policy-side whisper that could signal a rethinking of Bitcoin’s role in global finance.

Why does this matter? If China—or any major economy—were to seriously consider Bitcoin as a reserve asset, it could reshape the global monetary order. Reserve assets, traditionally dominated by the US dollar, gold, and a handful of other currencies, underpin central banks’ ability to manage liquidity and stabilise economies.

Bitcoin, with its decentralised nature and finite supply, offers a radical alternative—one that could hedge against dollar dominance or inflationary pressures from fiat currencies. The IMI’s commentary might be a trial balloon, testing the waters for how such a move would be received. Given China’s economic clout, even a gradual embrace of Bitcoin could spur other nations to follow suit, amplifying its legitimacy and value.

Bitcoin’s price action, meanwhile, is a microcosm of its broader journey. After hitting a new all-time high of US$111,970, it pulled back to around US$105,500, a drop of over 1.5 per cent. This retreat isn’t surprising—price discovery phases are inherently volatile, marked by sharp rallies and corrections as investors cash in profits and reposition.

The open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has soared, with BTC option contracts reaching a record US$46.2 billion, a sign of heightened speculation and hedging. Yet, profit-taking remains below extreme levels, suggesting that the market isn’t yet overheated. Glassnode analysts, whose data I trust for its rigour, see this pullback as a healthy part of Bitcoin’s maturation.

Their Relative Unrealised Profit metric shows the asset nearing a “euphoric phase,” with unrealised gains spiking above the +2 standard deviation band. These phases often bring rapid price swings and volatility, but they’re typically short-lived, paving the way for the next leg up.

This brings me to my own view, one I’ve articulated before in an X post: for Bitcoin to hit a “super bull run season,” we need corrections—ideally a minimum of 30 per cent. I stand by that assessment. The current dip, while notable, is modest in the grand scheme of Bitcoin’s cycles. Historically, Bitcoin has endured drawdowns of 40 per cent or more during bull markets, only to rebound stronger.

A deeper correction would shake out weak hands, reset expectations, and set the stage for sustainable growth—potentially pushing Bitcoin past US$150,000 or higher in the next phase. The IMI’s musings, combined with global uncertainty, could fuel that narrative, positioning Bitcoin as both a speculative play and a strategic asset for institutions.

Trump’s trade war and a slowing US economy are stoking risk aversion, driving investors toward Treasuries and gold while equities falter. Japan’s inflationary pressures hint at tighter policy ahead, adding another variable to the mix. And Bitcoin, buoyed by China’s subtle nudge and its own market dynamics, is carving out a unique space—one that blends speculative fervour with strategic potential.

I see opportunity amid the chaos. The corrections we’re witnessing, whether in stocks or crypto, are pruning the market for what could be a transformative next chapter. For Bitcoin, the path to reserve status is still hypothetical, but the conversation has begun—and that alone is a story worth watching.

 

Source: https://e27.co/economic-headwinds-trade-wars-slowing-growth-and-chinas-quiet-nod-to-bitcoin-20250530/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

j j j