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Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off

Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off

Bitcoin’s recovery to its all-time high may be threatened by rising recession fears, which could ease if the United States and China begin tariff negotiations this month, research analysts told Cointelegraph.

Appetite for global risk assets such as Bitcoin may take another hit, with analysts from Apollo Global Management predicting a recession by the summer.

“Apollo predicting Summer Recession: Sharpest decline in earnings outlook since 2020,” cross-asset analyst Samantha LaDuc wrote in an April 26 X post.

The progress on the tariff negotiations may be the most significant factor impacting a potential recession and Bitcoin’s price trajectory, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

“May is seen as pivotal as Chinese shipments reach the US’s shores, and exemptions on some tariff categories such as auto parts and sub-USD-800 shipments from China/ Hong Kong expire,” Barthere told Cointelegraph, adding that a lack of negotiations in May could lead to an economic recession and “double-digit losses” for Bitcoin.

However, this is the least likely scenario, since neither China nor the US “ has an economic interest in the interruption of bilateral trade,” Barthere said, adding:

“Given this, the main tariff scenario is for the US reaching deals or at least ‘agreements in principle’ with its main trade partners, probably settling around the 10% reciprocal tariff ‘floor’.”

If that scenario plays out and trade tensions ease in May, Bitcoin is likely to revisit its all-time high, Barthere said.

The US has “proactively reached out to China through multiple channels,” for signaling its openness for tariff negotiations, Reuters reported on May 1, citing unnamed sources who spoke to state-affiliated Chinese media platform Yuyuan Tantian.

Bitcoin may rally despite recession

While most analysts hope to see trade negotiations in May alleviate economic concerns, Bitcoin may see more upside even in the face of a potential recession.

“Initially, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may experience volatility, dropping alongside risk assets like stocks due to investor sell-offs,” Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser, told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Historical data, such as Bitcoin’s recovery post-2020 recession, suggests it could rebound, especially if seen as a hedge against inflation.”

“In stagflation (high inflation and slow growth), Bitcoin, often compared to gold, may perform well, attracting investors seeking value preservation. Yet, its increased correlation with the stock market, particularly tech stocks, introduces uncertainty,” said Lian, adding that crypto investors should continue monitoring economic policy shifts to gauge market direction.

However, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with tech stocks adds uncertainty to that outlook. Following the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, Bitcoin surged more than 1,050%, climbing from $6,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That rally came after the Federal Reserve launched its $4 trillion asset purchase program in March 2020.

Other industry watchers remain concerned by the crypto market’s response to economic stagnation.

“If the analysts are correct about the recession (which is certainly not guaranteed), crypto markets will likely decline alongside broader risk-on assets and equities,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of blockchain oracle firm RedStone.

Kazmierczak said April’s “Liberation Day tariffs and trucking slowdown could create economic contagion that historically hits speculative assets hardest.”

“While crypto’s growing institutional adoption introduces some uncertainty, it’s not enough to overcome the fundamental risk-on classification that still dominates market behavior,” he added.

 

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-uncertainty-recession-us-china-trade-talks

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Trade War tensions escalate: How China’s jet ban and Bitcoin slips as supply outpaces demand

Trade War tensions escalate: How China’s jet ban and Bitcoin slips as supply outpaces demand

The global financial markets are navigating a turbulent landscape as of April 16, with risk sentiment taking a noticeable hit due to escalating trade tensions and mixed economic signals. I see a complex interplay of geopolitical manoeuvring, economic data, and market dynamics shaping investor behaviour. My perspective is that while short-term volatility is likely to persist, driven by trade war escalations and policy uncertainties, there are pockets of resilience and opportunity for those who can navigate the noise with discipline and foresight. The current environment underscores the importance of diversification, safe-haven assets, and a keen eye on macroeconomic indicators to weather the storm.

The ongoing tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China continues to dominate headlines and rattle markets. Reports that China has instructed its airlines to halt further deliveries from a major US jet manufacturer signal a deepening of retaliatory measures. This move is not just a symbolic gesture; it directly impacts a key American industry and could disrupt global supply chains in aviation, a sector already strained by post-pandemic recovery challenges.

The decision comes as part of a broader escalation, with China recently raising tariffs by up to 125 per cent on select US products in response to US tariffs announced earlier this month. These developments have contributed to a sharp decline in Wall Street, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropping 4.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively, in recent sessions. The MSCI U.S. index, down 1.2 per cent on April 15, reflects this pressure, particularly in sectors such as Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare, both of which shed 0.7 per cent. The trade war’s ripple effects are clear: uncertainty is eroding investor confidence, and companies exposed to international markets are bearing the brunt.

Across the Atlantic, the lack of progress in EU-US trade negotiations adds another layer of complexity. Despite hopes for a thaw in transatlantic relations, the talks have stalled, raising concerns about potential new tariffs or retaliatory measures from the European Union. This stagnation is particularly troubling given the EU’s economic challenges, including sluggish growth in Germany and fiscal pressures in France. The failure to reach a deal could exacerbate global trade fragmentation, forcing companies to rethink supply chains and pricing strategies.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s probe into tariffs on critical minerals introduces further uncertainty. Critical minerals, essential for technologies such as electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy systems, are already subject to supply chain vulnerabilities due to China’s dominance in processing. A US tariff on these materials could drive up costs for domestic manufacturers while potentially failing to reduce reliance on foreign supplies, as seen in past trade policies that misfired, like the copper tariffs criticised by analysts for their unintended economic blowback.

The technology sector, a cornerstone of global markets, is also feeling the heat. Nvidia’s six per cent drop in late trading on April 15, following US export restrictions on its H20 chips to China and Hong Kong, underscores the vulnerability of tech giants to geopolitical risks. These restrictions, imposed indefinitely, are a significant blow to Nvidia, which has relied on the Chinese market for a substantial portion of its revenue.

The broader implications for the semiconductor industry are concerning, as tit-for-tat measures could disrupt innovation and profitability across the sector. Asian equity indices, already under pressure from deteriorating trade relations, opened lower this morning, reflecting the market’s unease with these developments. The tech sector’s woes highlight a broader truth: in a globalised economy, no industry is immune to the fallout of trade wars.

Amid this gloom, there are glimmers of resilience. The US Financials sector, up 0.3 per cent, has held up well, buoyed by strong earnings from major banks as the first-quarter reporting season gains momentum. Positive earnings suggest that banks are navigating higher interest rates and economic uncertainty with relative ease, providing a stabilising force for markets. Across the pond, UK indices have been a bright spot, with the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 gaining 1.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively. The prospect of a US-UK trade deal, hinted at in recent discussions, has fueled optimism, as such an agreement could shield the UK from the worst of the global trade storm. However, I remain cautious about over-optimism here; trade deals are notoriously complex, and the UK’s exposure to EU markets means it’s not entirely insulated from broader trade tensions.

The bond market offers another lens into investor sentiment. US Treasuries saw a reprieve on April 15, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping three basis points to 4.33 per cent after a period of volatility. The two-year yield, however, ticked up slightly to 3.84 per cent, reflecting mixed expectations about Federal Reserve policy. Investors piling into Treasuries as a safe haven have driven yields lower in recent days, a trend that aligns with fears of a trade-war-induced recession. JPMorgan’s recent increase in recession odds to 60 per cent from 40 per cent underscores this concern, as analysts warn that sustained tariffs could tip the U.S. and global economies into contraction. The US Dollar Index’s 0.5 per cent gain, snapping a five-day losing streak, suggests some resilience in the greenback, likely driven by its safe-haven status. Gold, up 0.7 per cent, continues to benefit from this flight to safety, with prices holding near record highs. Brent crude, however, slid to US$61 per barrel, weighed down by the International Energy Agency’s downgraded oil demand forecast and the broader impact of trade tensions on global growth.

China’s economic data provides a counterpoint to the prevailing pessimism. First-quarter GDP growth of 5.4 per cent and stronger-than-expected March activity data beat forecasts, signaling that Beijing’s stimulus measures are gaining traction. Market participants anticipate further policy easing and fiscal expansion to counter the drag from US tariffs, which could stabilize China’s economy in the near term. However, the beat hasn’t translated into broader market optimism, as Asian equities remain under pressure.

This disconnect suggests that trade war fears are overshadowing positive economic signals, a dynamic that could persist unless there’s a de-escalation in US-China relations.

The cryptocurrency market, often seen as a barometer of speculative sentiment, is also grappling with challenges. Bitcoin’s price, at US$67,420 on April 16, is down slightly from US$67,800, with trading volume dropping 10 per cent in the last 24 hours.

Ki Young Ju’s observation that Bitcoin supply is outpacing demand, backed by on-chain data, points to a bearish tilt. The formation of a “death cross” in Bitcoin’s technical indicators—where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average—further signals potential downside. Ethereum, trading at US$1,603, is similarly under pressure, with its RSI at 44.34 and MACD indicating lingering bearish momentum. The broader crypto market’s struggles reflect a flight from riskier assets, exacerbated by the repeal of DeFi regulations, which has paradoxically triggered outflows rather than inflows. The shift of capital to Layer-2 solutions and other blockchains suggests that Ethereum’s dominance in decentralized finance is waning, adding to its price woes.

From my vantage point, the current market environment is a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global economies. Trade wars, once thought to be blunt but manageable tools, are proving to have far-reaching consequences, from aviation to technology to commodities. Investors are right to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries, but they should also remain vigilant for opportunities in resilient sectors such as Financials or regions such as the UK, where trade deal prospects offer a glimmer of hope. The cryptocurrency market’s struggles highlight the broader risk-off sentiment, but disciplined traders could find short-term opportunities in Bitcoin and Ethereum if technical indicators signal a reversal.

Looking ahead, the path forward hinges on policy decisions. A de-escalation in US-China trade tensions or progress in EU-US talks could restore confidence, but the Trump administration’s aggressive stance suggests more volatility lies ahead. The Federal Reserve, caught between inflationary pressures from tariffs and recession risks, faces a delicate balancing act.

My advice to investors is to stay diversified, monitor macroeconomic data like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey—which, despite improvement, still signals contraction—and keep a close eye on earnings reports for clues about corporate resilience. The markets are testing our patience, but with careful navigation, there’s still room to find value amidst the chaos.

 

 

Source: https://e27.co/trade-war-tensions-escalate-how-chinas-jet-ban-and-bitcoin-slips-as-supply-outpaces-demand-20250416/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

US-China trade war escalates: Markets and Bitcoin plummet

US-China trade war escalates: Markets and Bitcoin plummet

The US-China trade war and its ripple effects across markets, currencies, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are the key highlights. Today, on April 9, 2025, the world is holding its breath as the clock ticks toward a midnight deadline (ET) when the United States could impose a staggering 50 per cent hike in tariffs on Chinese goods, pushing levies to an unprecedented 104 per cent.

China’s Commerce Ministry has fired back with a resolute declaration: “If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.” This escalating tit-for-tat has plunged global risk sentiment into a tailspin, and from my vantage point, it’s clear that the fallout is reshaping the financial landscape in ways that are both profound and unpredictable.

Looking at the equity markets, where volatility has become the name of the game. The S&P 500, a bellwether of US economic health, experienced a rollercoaster session yesterday. It surged over four per cent in early trading, buoyed perhaps by fleeting optimism or speculative positioning, only to surrender those gains and close 1.6 per cent lower. This left it teetering on the edge of bear market territory—defined as a 20 per cent drop from its recent peak. The NASDAQ, heavily weighted with tech stocks sensitive to global trade dynamics, fared even worse, shedding 2.15 per cent after a similar wild swing from a four per cent gain.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 349 points, a decline that, while less dramatic in percentage terms, underscores the broad-based anxiety gripping Wall Street. The CBOE Volatility Index, often dubbed the “fear index,” spiked another 11.4 per cent to 52.33—a level that screams panic and reflects a market bracing for more turbulence. From my perspective, these gyrations aren’t just noise; they’re a visceral response to the uncertainty of a trade war that threatens to upend global supply chains and corporate earnings.

The bond market tells a complementary story. US Treasury yields presented a mixed picture yesterday, with the two-year yield retreating as investors sought short-term safety, while longer-term yields—like those on the 10-year note—climbed higher. This steepening of the yield curve followed a lacklustre auction of 3-year notes, which triggered a selloff in longer-dated bonds. To me, this suggests a market grappling with conflicting signals: fear of an economic slowdown driving demand for safe-haven assets, yet persistent inflationary pressures tied to tariffs keeping longer-term yields elevated.

The US Dollar Index weakened by 0.3%, a modest dip that nonetheless handed gains to safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Gold, often a barometer of global unease, held steady at US$2,983.27 per ounce—not a dramatic move, but a sign of its role as a quiet anchor amid the storm. Brent crude oil, however, slid 2.2 per cent to US$62.82 per barrel, reflecting fears that a trade war could sap global demand. As I see it, these asset movements paint a picture of a world economy on edge, with investors hedging bets and seeking shelter wherever they can find it.

Now, to Bitcoin, which has been a fascinating subplot in this saga. Just days ago, the cryptocurrency briefly breached the US$80,000 mark—a rally that sparked hope among bulls that it could defy the gathering storm. But that optimism has evaporated. As of April 8, Bitcoin had slipped below its US$76,000 support level, trading at US$76,193—a drop that erased much of the “Trump pump” gains from late last year. Technical analysts are pointing to a “death cross” forming on the charts, where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, a bearish signal that often heralds prolonged declines.

From my vantage point, this reversal isn’t surprising. Bitcoin’s recent bounce felt more like a panic rally—fuelled by speculative fervor rather than fundamentals—than a sustainable trend. The harsh reality is that Trump’s tariffs, combined with China’s retaliatory measures, are creating a global financial crisis that even crypto can’t escape. The notion that Bitcoin is a decoupled asset, immune to traditional market forces, is being tested and, frankly, debunked in real time.

The cryptocurrency market’s woes extend beyond Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which had gained traction as a bridge between crypto and mainstream finance, are hemorrhaging capital. Data from Farside Investors shows US$256.6 million in outflows from these funds in April alone, with only one day of positive inflows so far. April 1 marked the largest single-day exodus at US$157 million, while BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, a heavyweight in the space, saw a US$65 million inflow on April 2 but also suffered the biggest intra-day loss.

This flight of capital reflects a broader investor unease, amplified by Trump’s tariff policies and the spectre of a US recession. Mark Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, recently weighed in, warning that these tariffs heighten the odds of an economic downturn south of the border—a view that aligns with growing chatter among economists and market watchers. For me, Carney’s comments underscore a critical point: the interconnectedness of global economies means that no asset class, not even crypto, can fully insulate itself from macroeconomic shocks.

The interplay between tariffs and Bitcoin is particularly intriguing. Some, like former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, had argued that cryptocurrencies might weather tariff-induced turbulence better than traditional assets, given their decentralised nature. But the data tells a different story. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a sentiment gauge, has plunged into “fear” territory, mirroring the VIX’s climb in traditional markets. Bitcoin’s correlation with equities, while not absolute, has tightened in recent weeks, suggesting it’s behaving more like a risk asset than a safe haven.

China’s “revenge” tariffs—reportedly an additional 34 per cent on US goods—have only deepened the gloom, raising the stakes in this trade war and threatening to disrupt everything from manufacturing to consumer prices. As I see it, the hope that crypto could serve as a hedge against such chaos is fading fast, replaced by a stark realisation that it’s caught in the same web of uncertainty as stocks and bonds.

Looking beyond the US, the global ramifications are equally stark. Asian equity indices opened lower today, tracking Wall Street’s losses and bracing for the tariff deadline. Japan and South Korea, key US allies, are reportedly in “highly tailored” deal talks with the White House, as President Trump’s economic adviser Kevin Hassett hinted at a broader tariff strategy still taking shape. Hassett told reporters that a plan is being prepared for Trump to decide “who and when” for these talks, but the situation remains fluid.

For me, this ambiguity is a double-edged sword: it keeps markets on tenterhooks, but it also opens the door to potential de-escalation if cooler heads prevail. Fed fund futures, meanwhile, are now pricing in four interest rate cuts for 2025—a dovish shift that signals growing recession fears, even as inflation risks from tariffs loom large. It’s a tightrope walk for the Federal Reserve, and one that could dictate the trajectory of both traditional and crypto markets in the months ahead.

So, what’s my take on all this? I see this as a pivotal moment—one where the hubris of protectionism is colliding with the fragility of a globalised economy. Trump’s tariffs, while rooted in a desire to bolster US manufacturing, risk igniting a wildfire of retaliation and economic contraction. The markets, from the S&P 500 to Bitcoin, are screaming for clarity, but none is forthcoming.

China’s resolve to “fight to the end” only heightens the stakes, promising a protracted battle that could drag down growth worldwide. For Bitcoin, the dream of it being a “digital gold” untethered from earthly woes feels increasingly distant; it’s a speculative asset caught in the crossfire, not a sanctuary. The US$256.6 million in ETF outflows this month is a testament to that reality—investors are spooked, and they’re voting with their wallets.

In the end, we’re left with a market wrap that’s less a conclusion and more a cliffhanger. Tonight’s tariff deadline could mark a turning point—or just another chapter in a saga of volatility.

My gut tells me we’re in for more rough seas, with the potential for a US recession casting a long shadow over 2025. Whether it’s the VIX at 52.33, Bitcoin at US$76,193, or the S&P 500 flirting with a bear market, the numbers don’t lie: fear is in the driver’s seat.

As I pen this on April 9, 2025, at 12:23 PM +08, the world watches and waits—and so do I, ready to chronicle whatever comes next.

 

Source: https://e27.co/us-china-trade-war-escalates-markets-and-bitcoin-plummet-20250409/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j