Tag Archives: crypto

Crypto-gold correlation hits 69%: Where smart money is rotating next

Crypto-gold correlation hits 69%: Where smart money is rotating next

Traditional markets and digital assets surged in a rare display of synchronised strength. The S&P 500 climbed 0.81 per cent or 58.47 points to reach a record 7,259.22. This upward move coincided with the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.03 per cent to 25,326.13. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.73 per cent to close at 49,298.25. These numbers reflect a broader trend of institutional confidence. Investors poured capital into risk assets as geopolitical tensions eased and corporate earnings exceeded expectations. The market is not just rising. It is evolving.

The semiconductor industry was the primary driver of this equity surge. The PHLX Semiconductor Index jumped 4.2 per cent to a record high. Individual companies within this sector demonstrated extraordinary momentum. Intel shares soared 13 per cent to an all-time high following reports that Apple might utilise Intel chipmaking services for its main processors. This potential partnership signals a significant shift in the global supply chain for high-performance computing. Micron also contributed to the sector dominance by surging nearly 11 per cent after the company launched new high-capacity solid-state drives.

AMD followed this trend in extended trading with a six per cent pop. The firm reported an earnings beat and provided strong forward guidance for the coming months. These movements highlight how deeply the market values the physical infrastructure that powers modern intelligence. Corporate health appears widespread. Approximately 85 per cent of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have delivered earnings beats. Aggregate 1st-quarter growth currently stands at a projected 28 per cent year-over-year.

Geopolitical developments provided a necessary tailwind for these financial gains. Markets gained confidence from reports that a ceasefire between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf remains firm. This de-escalation in a critical maritime corridor pulled oil prices lower and significantly reduced immediate fears regarding global inflation. A calmer macro environment typically boosts risk appetite. We saw this reflected in the performance of major indices worldwide.

While the global sentiment remained positive, regional central bank actions introduced some local pressure. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates to 4.35 per cent on 5 May. Governor Bullock issued a warning regarding ongoing inflationary pressures within the Australian economy. Despite this domestic headwind, the ASX 200 opened 0.43 per cent higher on Wednesday morning. It followed the strong lead from Wall Street.

Economic data from other regions further supported the narrative of global resilience. Hong Kong reported a gross domestic product for the 1st quarter that reached a nearly five-year high. The region’s economy surged 5.9 per cent year-on-year. This provides evidence of a recovery in major Asian financial hubs.

Meanwhile, the fixed-income market showed that participants are balancing this strong economic data against future policy paths. US 10 year Treasury yields remained elevated near 4.44 per cent. Traders weighed the strength of the economy against the potential for future interest rate adjustments. This level of yield suggests that while investors seek growth in equities, they also maintain a cautious outlook on the long-term cost of capital.

The cryptocurrency market mirrored the strength of traditional equities. It rose 1.29 per cent to a total valuation of US$2.68T within a 24-hour window. This rally is primarily motivated by the strategic evolution of the Telegram ecosystem and its associated network. Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced on 4 May that the messaging application will officially replace the independent TON Foundation. It now acts as the primary driver and largest validator for The Open Network.

This governance shift represents a fundamental change in how the network operates. Telegram slashed transaction fees 6 fold. By leveraging its base of nearly 1,000,000,000 users, Telegram removed significant uncertainty regarding the network utility. Investors responded with enthusiasm. The price of $TON surged by 25.74 per cent. Trading volume for related tokens like $NOT spiked by 545 per cent.

This corporate takeover of a decentralised network serves as a powerful catalyst for the broader digital asset space. Direct corporate backing validates the ecosystem’s utility for micro-transactions and specialised applications. Market participants shifted capital into this ecosystem. Analysts now watch for a sustained daily close above US$2 to confirm the breakout’s longevity. The rally also benefited from a strategic pivot by the Ethereum Foundation.

It recently moved its focus back toward Layer 1 development. This shift bolstered confidence across major networks. Social chatter continues to highlight regulatory progress regarding the Clarity Act. The crypto market currently has a 69 per cent correlation with Gold. This indicates that investors increasingly treat digital assets as tools for liquidity management and as a hedge against broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bitcoin specifically demonstrated institutional strength. It rose 1.39 per cent to US$80,930.74. This performance allowed the largest digital asset to outperform a broader market that had otherwise remained neutral. The primary driver for this move remains the persistent demand from US spot exchange-traded funds.

These funds recorded US$532M in net inflows on 4 May alone. This marked the 3rd consecutive day of net buying. Institutional accumulation in April reached US$2.44B. This stands as the strongest monthly performance since October 2025. With total assets under management for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds now sitting at US$104.99B, institutional demand effectively absorbs available supply. It provides a structural bid for the price.

Technical factors intensified the upward trajectory. The rally triggered a significant short squeeze. Over a 24-hour period, the market saw US$159.23M in Bitcoin liquidations. Short positions accounted for US$152.26M of that total. The price increase forced bearish traders to close their positions. This added further buying pressure to the market. This technical momentum helped bulls defend the critical support zone between US$80,500 and US$78,000.

De-escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz following US diplomatic efforts also improved risk sentiment. The market now faces a major technical test at the 200-day moving average near US$83,000. A daily close above this level could target the US$89,000 range. Failure to hold current support could lead to a deeper consolidation phase.

The immediate trend for both traditional and digital markets hinges on several upcoming triggers. Investors anticipate the start of Kevin Warsh’s term as Chair of the Federal Reserve on 15 May. This could provide clarity on the future of monetary policy. Additionally, a scheduled Binance Online livestream on 6 May may influence retail sentiment within the crypto sector.

The current market rise represents a clear case of powerful catalysts resonating within a constructive macro environment. Whether looking at the 13 per cent surge in Intel or the explosive momentum of the $TON ecosystem, the theme remains the same. Institutional participation and infrastructure development are replacing speculative cycles.

The market outlook remains bullish but requires selective risk management. The convergence of a 28 per cent corporate earnings growth rate and massive institutional inflows into Bitcoin suggests that the current uptrend has a solid fundamental basis. The elevated Treasury yields and upcoming technical resistance levels near the 200-day moving average for Bitcoin indicate that the path forward will require sustained momentum.

Bitcoin’s ability to hold above US$81,300 and Telegram’s success in integrating its massive user base into a decentralised network will likely determine the direction of the next leg of this global rally. Investors continue to monitor whether capital will continue to rotate into high-growth narratives or consolidate back into the core pillars of the financial system in the coming days. Regardless of short-term volatility, the events of 6 May 2026 demonstrate a market in which technology and institutional liquidity are increasingly unified.

Large Layer 1 networks are gaining momentum alongside this institutional growth. The Ethereum Foundation’s strategic pivot back to primary development bolstered confidence. Regulatory optimism regarding the Clarity Act adds another layer of support. These factors, combined with steady ETF inflows, provide a supportive macro backdrop for risk assets.

The market now awaits the next macro catalyst to determine if this bullish momentum can sustain itself through the middle of May.

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Washington’s Pivot From Policing Crypto to Owning It

Washington’s Pivot From Policing Crypto to Owning It

The year 2026 will likely be remembered as the moment the American financial apparatus finally stopped trying to build a wall around the digital asset derivatives market and instead decided to build a regulated highway through it.

For years, the United States watched from the sidelines as trillions of dollars in liquidity migrated to offshore jurisdictions, driven by a domestic regulatory vacuum that left “perpetual futures,” the lifeblood of crypto trading, in a frustrating gray area. As the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) prepares to unveil a definitive framework for these products, we are now witnessing a high-stakes land grab. Major players like Kraken, Coinbase, and even prediction markets such as Polymarket are no longer merely preparing; they are mobilizing vast amounts of capital to ensure they own the infrastructure of this new era. This is not simply a technical adjustment to the rulebook—it is a fundamental shift in how the U.S. understands financial innovation and risk.

The numbers provide a staggering sense of why this shift is happening now. In 2025, perpetual futures trading volume reached $61.7 trillion, dwarfing the $18.6 trillion recorded in spot trading. For the uninitiated, the “perp” is the ultimate trading instrument because it never expires, allowing traders to maintain positions indefinitely while using significant leverage. Until recently, U.S. regulators viewed this as a retail catastrophe waiting to happen. By forcing these trades offshore, the U.S. did not protect its citizens; it merely exported both tax revenue and oversight. The current urgency from CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, who in March signaled that a framework could arrive within weeks, is a tacit admission that the policy of “regulation by enforcement” has failed to stem global demand.

To understand the scale of this ambition, one need only look at the checkbooks of the industry’s giants. Kraken’s parent company, Payward, recently executed a $550 million acquisition of Bitnomial, a U.S.-regulated derivatives venue. This was not a purchase of technology so much as a purchase of time and legitimacy. By acquiring an entity that already holds the necessary “full stack” of CFTC licenses—specifically the Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) designations—Kraken has effectively bypassed the grueling 180-day application process and positioned itself to offer “true” perps the moment the ink dries on the new rules. Coinbase has been equally aggressive, though more creative, offering “perpetual-style” five-year contracts with 10x leverage as a placeholder. This tactical maneuvering makes clear that the industry no longer views regulation as an obstacle to avoid, but as a moat to build.

The path to entry for new exchanges is far steeper than it was in the early, unregulated days of the crypto boom. The 2026 regulatory landscape, shaped by the CLARITY and GENIUS Acts of late 2025, demands a level of institutional fortification that will likely gatekeep the market to only the most well-capitalized firms. To operate as a DCM, an exchange must now demonstrate it has a 12-month runway of projected operating expenses funded by liquid financial assets. If that exchange also wishes to act as a DCO—clearing and settling its own trades—the capital requirements become even more stringent. It must maintain sufficient resources to withstand a default by its largest participant under extreme market conditions. This “full-stack” requirement is a deliberate move by the CFTC to ensure that the flash crashes and contagion events of the previous decade remain a relic of the past.

The financial barriers do not stop at operating expenses. The introduction of specific capital charges for crypto assets held by Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) marks a new era of “haircut” mathematics. Under the guidelines, any FCM holding proprietary Bitcoin or Ethereum inventory must take a 20% capital charge to account for volatility. Even the use of payment stablecoins as collateral, while a welcome advancement for liquidity, comes with variable haircuts reviewed monthly. This creates a revealing paradox: the U.S. is finally allowing perpetual futures, but only by wrapping them in the same heavy-duty armor worn by traditional Wall Street clearinghouses. For the retail trader, this means more security; for the exchange, it means a significantly higher cost of doing business.

The most intriguing development may be the entry of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi into the leveraged trading space. In April, these platforms announced plans to expand into perpetuals, signaling a convergence between event-based betting and traditional financial derivatives. This emerging 24/7 trading environment for tech stocks and crypto, which Polymarket is championing, challenges the very notion of market hours that has governed the New York Stock Exchange for more than a century. If a trader can hedge exposure to a tech stock via a perpetual contract on a Sunday afternoon in response to a geopolitical shock, the traditional Monday morning opening bell begins to look increasingly obsolete. This is the “perpetual motion” of modern finance—a market that never sleeps, governed by code and cleared by heavily regulated domestic entities. For context, I remain skeptical of this shift.

Critically, the debate over investor protection remains the primary friction point. There is ample reason for concern about the risks of 50x leverage being marketed to retail investors. While the new framework is expected to include mandatory risk tests and knowledge requirements—similar to those pioneered by Robinhood in Europe—the question of whether retail traders should have access to such leverage at all remains unresolved. The CFTC’s 23 Core Principles for DCMs, which include strict market surveillance and safeguards against manipulation, are designed to protect the integrity of the market. They cannot, however, protect traders from their own miscalculations. The move toward monthly proof-of-reserves reporting and the issuance of 1099-DA tax forms suggests that the shadow elements of crypto are being pulled into the light, but the underlying volatility of these assets cannot be regulated away.

The gray area that Bitnomial exploited in 2025 through the self-certification process proved to be a necessary catalyst. It demonstrated that a U.S. platform could offer these products without systemic collapse, provided it adhered to the Commodity Exchange Act. That precedent has forced the SEC and CFTC into a degree of regulatory harmonization that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. By classifying assets like BTC and ETH as digital commodities, the U.S. has finally provided the jurisdictional clarity institutional investors have long demanded. This clarity does not merely benefit exchanges; it anchors liquidity within the U.S. legal system, where it is subject to stress testing and audit requirements.

In my view, the aggressive positioning of these exchanges reflects a broader vote of confidence in the American regulatory system’s ability to eventually get it right. The capital requirements—such as the 8% client asset buffer for bank-affiliated FCMs—are steep, but they are the price of admission to the world’s most lucrative financial marketplace. We are moving away from a world of loosely defined crypto exchanges toward one of digital asset derivatives powerhouses that resemble the Chicago Mercantile Exchange more than the offshore platforms of 2021. This transition will likely accelerate market consolidation, as smaller players struggle to meet the 12-month capital reserves and rigorous cybersecurity safeguards now required.

As we look toward the formal rollout of the CFTC framework in the coming weeks, the narrative is no longer about whether crypto will be integrated into the U.S. financial system, but how quickly that integration will occur. The perpetual nature of these contracts offers a fitting metaphor for the industry itself: a market that has sustained itself through pressure and volatility, now seeking permanence within a formal system. The race is on, the capital is committed, and for the first time in a decade, the rules of the game are being written in plain view.

 

Source: https://intpolicydigest.org/washington-s-pivot-from-policing-crypto-to-owning-it/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j

Stocks hit record highs while US$300M in crypto longs get liquidated: What’s next?

Stocks hit record highs while US$300M in crypto longs get liquidated: What’s next?

While major US stock indexes closed at all-time highs, capping off their best monthly performance since 2020, the digital asset space is currently digesting a sharp, painful correction in leverage. This split personality in the market suggests that while institutional capital remains confident in the earnings power of megacap technology firms, speculative traders in the crypto derivatives market are being forced to reset their risk exposure.

The narrative of the day is not one of universal fear, but rather a selective rotation in which fundamental earnings in stocks are overpowering macroeconomic headwinds, while crowded speculative positions in crypto are being flushed out by technical resistance levels.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant deleveraging event over the last 24 hours, characterised by a violent flush of long positions. Data indicates that approximately US$326.71 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with the overwhelming majority of this pain concentrated on the buy side. Specifically, US$285.87 million of these liquidations came from long positions, compared with just US$40.84 million from short positions. This means that roughly 87.5 per cent of the liquidated value resulted from traders betting on price increases who were forced out of their positions as prices dipped.

The brunt of this activity hit the two largest assets by market capitalisation. Ethereum saw roughly US$308.85 million in liquidations, while Bitcoin saw about US$204.96 million across major venues such as Binance, Hyperliquid, OKX, and Bybit. Some broader estimates place the total liquidation figure closer to US$500 million over a similar window, underscoring the intensity of the sell-off.

This liquidation cascade was not driven by a fundamental collapse in the value of these assets but rather by a technical failure at key resistance levels. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to sustain a break above the US$77,000-US$80,000 range. This area has become a formidable ceiling where profit-taking by short-term holders meets dense clusters of leveraged long risk around the US$74,000 to US$75,000 levels.

When the price rejected this resistance, market mechanics triggered a cascade of margin calls, forcing traders to sell and driving prices further into the liquidation maps. Ethereum appeared even more technically fragile, trading below key moving averages and failing to hold resistance before rolling over. The result was a classic long squeeze, in which the market punished overly optimistic leverage rather than reflecting a change in the underlying spot demand for the assets.

In stark contrast to the volatility in digital assets, the traditional stock market rallied to record highs, driven by robust earnings reports that seem to justify lofty valuations. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted their best monthly gains in six years, fueled by the continued dominance of megacap technology firms. Alphabet led the charge with a 10 per cent surge after reporting a strong Q1 revenue beat and announcing an aggressive capital expenditure guidance of up to US$190 billion for 2026.

Amazon also contributed significantly to the rally, reporting a 17 per cent revenue increase to US$181.5 billion and seeing its cloud computing division, AWS, accelerate growth to 28 per cent. Apple shares also rose in extended trading following a positive revenue forecast. These results suggest that despite high interest rates, the biggest tech companies are generating enough cash flow to support massive investment cycles.

The enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is not without its sceptics, even within the stock market. The same theme of AI capital expenditure that boosted Alphabet caused sell-offs in other tech giants. Meta Platforms and Microsoft fell 8.6 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively, as investors reacted negatively to disappointing user growth and the high memory costs associated with their massive AI spending. NVIDIA also dipped four per cent due to broader scrutiny regarding AI capital expenditures rather than any company-specific bad news.

This indicates a growing bifurcation in the tech sector where investors are beginning to demand proof of return on investment for the billions being poured into AI infrastructure. The market is no longer rewarding spending for the sake of spending. It is rewarding spending that translates into revenue growth, as seen with Amazon and Alphabet.

The macroeconomic backdrop for these divergent market moves remains complex and somewhat contradictory. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold for a third straight meeting as inflation remained above the three per cent mark, a level that is still uncomfortably high relative to the central bank’s targets. Despite this, the US economy grew at a 2.0 per cent rate in Q1 2026, showing resilience that supports the stock market rally.

Geopolitical tensions are adding a layer of volatility that cannot be ignored. Brent crude oil settled near US$110 per barrel after surging past US$114 amid concerns over potential US strikes on Iran and the United Arab Emirates’ announced exit from OPEC. Additionally, currency markets saw wild swings, with the Japanese yen reaching 157.14 per dollar following a suspected intervention by the Ministry of Finance. These factors create an environment where capital is expensive and global stability is fragile, which helps explain why leverage in the crypto market is so vulnerable to sudden shocks.

Looking ahead, the derivatives market metrics will be the primary indicator of where volatility might spike next. Despite the recent wipeout of long positions, total derivatives open interest remains elevated at approximately US$493.1 billion, having risen roughly two to four per cent over the last day. Perpetuals open interest alone sits near US$489.52 billion.

Crucially, average funding rates have flipped modestly negative, signalling that traders are leaning more defensively after the flush. The key dynamic to watch is whether this open interest continues to fall, indicating deeper, healthier deleveraging, or if it quickly rebuilds near resistance levels. If leverage bleeds down while prices remain stable, it sets the stage for a sustainable move higher. If high leverage and positive funding rates return too quickly, the market risks another sharp squeeze in either direction.

The current market environment suggests a period of digestion and selection. The stock market is proving that earnings power can currently override macroeconomic fears, pushing indexes to new highs even as oil prices surge and the Fed holds rates steady. The crypto market, conversely, is undergoing a necessary technical reset.

The next phase of this cycle will depend on whether the AI spending boom continues to deliver the revenue growth seen by Amazon and Alphabet, or if the costs highlighted by Meta and Microsoft begin to weigh down the broader market. Until then, the divergence between record-high stocks and flushing crypto leverage defines the risk landscape of May 2026.

 

Source: https://e27.co/stocks-hit-record-highs-while-us300m-in-crypto-longs-get-liquidated-whats-next-20260501/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j