Tag Archives: crypto

Crypto’s fragile comeback: Oversold RSI, Solana ETFs, and the US$86K Bitcoin test

Crypto’s fragile comeback: Oversold RSI, Solana ETFs, and the US$86K Bitcoin test

Digital assets climbed 1.93 per cent, recovering from a steep seven-day slide that saw the sector shed 8.53 per cent of its value. This bounceback came against a broader backdrop of risk aversion. The S&P 500 fell 0.83 per cent, the NASDAQ dropped 1.21 per cent amid AI valuation concerns, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.07 per cent. The caution permeating traditional markets has spilt over into crypto, yet structural developments within the digital asset space, particularly around Solana, Binance, and technical positioning, provided enough tailwind for a short-term recovery.

The most potent catalyst emerged from the institutional front: the launch of spot Solana exchange-traded funds. Fidelity and Canary Capital debuted their Solana ETFs, FSOL and SOLC, on the NYSE and Nasdaq, respectively, drawing over US$30 million in first-day inflows. Unlike earlier crypto ETF structures that offered pure price exposure, these funds incorporate staking mechanisms, allowing investors to earn yield while holding the asset.

This innovation speaks directly to institutional appetite for income-generating digital assets in an environment where risk-free rates remain elevated but volatile. The inclusion of staking functionality elevates Solana beyond mere speculative exposure. It positions SOL as a yield-bearing asset within a broader portfolio framework, blurring the line between traditional fixed income and decentralised finance.

Crucially, Solana’s price held firm near US$183 despite Bitcoin’s recent turbulence, suggesting that ETF approval has conferred a degree of regulatory legitimacy not previously enjoyed by most altcoins. While Ethereum still commands the lion’s share of institutional attention among non-Bitcoin assets, Solana’s ETF momentum may signal a widening of the institutional aperture, potentially heralding the early stages of a broader altcoin renaissance if sustained.

Parallel to this structural shift, Binance continued to assert its dominance as the central node of global crypto liquidity. In the third quarter of 2025, Binance recorded net inflows of US$14.8 billion, a staggering 158 times more than its closest competitors. This figure is not merely a testament to user trust but reflects a deliberate strategy. The exchange has secured 21 regulatory licenses worldwide and holds US$31 billion in proof-of-reserves, positioning itself as a compliant gateway for both retail and institutional capital.

Recent partnerships, such as the integration with PayPay Japan, have further cemented its role in bridging mainstream finance with digital asset markets. In an environment where many crypto-native platforms struggle with regulatory headwinds and capital flight, Binance’s ability to attract and retain capital underscores a market preference for scale, security, and regulatory clarity, even within the centralised exchange model. This liquidity concentration has a direct impact on market dynamics.

Binance now accounts for 41 per cent of global crypto trading volume, according to BTCC data for 2025. Such dominance means that price discovery, especially during volatile periods, increasingly hinges on activity within Binance’s order books. The exchange’s inflows have effectively offset bearish sentiment elsewhere, including outflows from other crypto ETFs and risk-off behaviour in equities, acting as a counterweight to broader market pessimism.

From a technical standpoint, the rebound also found fertile ground in oversold conditions. The 14-day Relative Strength Index for the overall crypto market cap dipped to 34, entering territory historically associated with short-term buying opportunities.

Concurrently, the MACD histogram showed a narrowing of bearish momentum, falling to negative US$20.58 billion, a signal that downward pressure was beginning to ease. Traders responded swiftly, pushing the market higher in a classic relief rally. This technical bounce carries caveats. Perpetual futures funding rates across major assets remain subdued at a positive 0.0056 per cent, indicating that leverage appetite has not returned in force.

In other words, while spot traders capitalised on the dip, derivatives markets remain cautious, wary of committing to directional bets ahead of key macro events, including Nvidia’s earnings, which loom large given the chipmaker’s role as a bellwether for AI-driven equity performance. The absence of aggressive long positioning suggests that this rally is more a function of short-covering and mean reversion than a conviction-driven shift in sentiment.

Beneath these immediate drivers lies a more fragile undercurrent. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 16 out of 100, deep in extreme fear territory. This level of pessimism has historically preceded both capitulation events and eventual recoveries, but context matters. Today’s fear coincides with weakening global risk sentiment, driven by multiple crosscurrents. Treasury yields have dipped slightly, with the 10-year at 4.11 per cent and the 2-year at 3.57 per cent, reflecting safe-haven demand, yet the dollar remains flat, and the yen has weakened past 155 against the greenback on expectations of further Japanese stimulus.

Geopolitical tensions between China and Japan continue to rattle Asian markets, as evidenced by the Nikkei’s 3.2 per cent drop just one day prior. Meanwhile, oil prices rose 1.1 per cent on renewed Russia sanctions risk, and gold gained as investors sought traditional hedges. In this environment, crypto’s 1.93 per cent gain appears resilient, but it remains tethered to the fate of broader risk assets, particularly tech stocks.

The critical question now is sustainability. Can altcoins, led by Solana, maintain upward momentum if Bitcoin retests its US$86,000 support level? The answer likely hinges on two variables: continued Solana ETF inflows and shifts in Bitcoin dominance. The ETH/BTC ratio, a traditional barometer of altcoin season potential, has yet to show convincing recovery, suggesting that capital rotation into alternatives remains tentative.

Moreover, while Solana’s ETF structure offers yield through staking, its long-term appeal will depend on consistent institutional adoption and regulatory stability, not just initial enthusiasm. Binance’s liquidity dominance provides a buffer, but it also concentrates systemic risk. Any regulatory misstep or loss of confidence in the exchange could trigger rapid outflows that overwhelm even robust technical setups.

In conclusion, the crypto market’s recent rebound is real but fragile. It draws strength from three distinct pillars: institutional validation via Solana ETFs, centralised liquidity via Binance’s inflows, and technical oversold conditions inviting short-term buyers. These bullish forces operate within a macro framework tilted toward caution, marked by AI valuation fatigue, geopolitical friction, and a risk-off posture in both equities and fixed income. The rally should not be mistaken for a trend reversal but rather a tactical pause in a broader correction.

For the rebound to evolve into a sustained recovery, it will need either a catalyst that reignites global risk appetite or evidence that crypto’s fundamentals, particularly around regulated yield and institutional adoption, are decoupling from traditional market sentiment. Until then, traders and investors alike must tread carefully, watching Solana ETF flows, BTC dominance, and the ever-sensitive US$86,000 Bitcoin support level as leading indicators of what comes next.

 

Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-fragile-comeback-oversold-rsi-solana-etfs-and-the-us86k-bitcoin-test-20251119/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
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Crypto crashes 13 per cent as Fed rate cut hopes fade, S&P 500 correlation hits 0.95

Crypto crashes 13 per cent as Fed rate cut hopes fade, S&P 500 correlation hits 0.95

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market shed 3.51 per cent, extending a punishing 13 per cent weekly decline driven by a confluence of macroeconomic headwinds, cascading derivatives liquidations, and a dramatic collapse in trader sentiment. This sell-off exemplifies how tightly interwoven crypto has become with traditional financial systems, particularly as correlations with equities have deepened to levels not seen in months.

Monday’s performance in US equities underscored this linkage, with the Dow Jones falling 1.18 per cent, the S&P 500 down 0.92 per cent, and the Nasdaq slipping 0.84 per cent, as technology stocks led the retreat. These losses emerged alongside diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which had previously provided some support to risk assets. The recalibration of Fed expectations followed strong US economic data, which reinforced concerns about persistent inflation and delayed the anticipated pivot toward monetary easing.

The shifting macroeconomic landscape was further reflected in movements across fixed-income and foreign exchange markets. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined modestly by 1.0 basis point to settle at 4.139 per cent, while the two-year yield edged higher by 0.4 basis points to 3.610 per cent, signalling a slight flattening of the yield curve. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index gained 0.29 per cent to close at 99.588, adding pressure on non-dollar assets.

Gold, often viewed as a safe haven, dropped 1.0 per cent to US$4044.96 per ounce, weighed down by both the stronger dollar and receding hopes for near-term rate cuts, which typically support precious metals by lowering opportunity costs. In energy markets, Brent crude settled slightly lower at US$64.20 per barrel, recovering marginally as loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export terminal following a brief suspension caused by a Ukrainian drone strike. Across Asia, equities finished the session mixed but turned lower in early Tuesday trading, though US index futures pointed to a modest recovery at the open, suggesting some short-term stabilisation may be on the horizon.

The crypto downturn lies a powerful macro risk-off dynamic that has pulled digital assets into the same downdraft affecting equities. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price correlation with the S&P 500 surged to 0.95, its highest since June 2025. This near-perfect synchronisation underscores how traders increasingly treat crypto not as an uncorrelated alternative asset but as a high-beta extension of the broader risk spectrum. The catalyst for this shift came from revised market pricing around Federal Reserve policy. Stronger-than-expected economic indicators have tempered expectations for a December rate cut, pushing the implied probability lower and driving the 10-year Treasury yield up by 14 basis points over recent sessions.

This tightening of financial conditions has hit speculative assets especially hard. Bitcoin’s breach below the psychologically critical US$91,500 level triggered a wave of algorithmic stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline and dragging down major altcoins such as Solana and Cardano, which posted weekly losses of 21.7 per cent and 22.4 per cent, respectively. The market now awaits pivotal upcoming events, the release of the November 20 Fed meeting minutes, and Nvidia’s earnings report on November 21, for further directional cues. Any sign of continued economic resilience or hawkish Fed rhetoric could prolong risk aversion.

Compounding the macro pressure, a violent unwind in crypto derivatives markets has magnified losses through forced liquidations. Trading volume in perpetual futures contracts spiked by 45.6 per cent to an astonishing US$423 trillion over 24 hours, reflecting frantic hedging and position adjustments. Simultaneously, total open interest in the derivatives market fell by 7.4 per cent, now standing at US$787 billion, down 8.4 per cent in a single day. This contraction signals a rapid deleveraging as overextended positions were forcibly closed. Options markets mirrored this bearish sentiment, with US$740 million in put options placed targeting a Bitcoin price of US$90,000 and Ethereum at US$2,800.

Funding rates for major altcoins also turned negative, with the average rate dipping to minus 0.0019775, which disincentivises holding long positions and encourages further shorting. This feedback loop of rising volatility, liquidations, and negative funding creates a self-reinforcing cycle that can deepen sell-offs beyond what fundamentals alone would justify. Market participants now watch open interest closely, as a continued decline could signal capitulation, potentially setting the stage for a relief rally once leverage is sufficiently purged.

Perhaps most telling is the collapse in market psychology, captured starkly by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which plunged to 15, entering “Extreme Fear” territory. This marks the lowest reading since March 2025, a period that ultimately coincided with a market bottom when Bitcoin found support near US$76,000. Retail investors, overwhelmed by the speed and severity of the decline, have fled to the perceived safety of stablecoins, pushing Tether’s dominance to 7.2 per cent, a 30-day high. Social sentiment has turned sharply negative, with average daily scores falling to 4.29 out of 10, and viral commentary reflecting deep pessimism toward even leading altcoins.

Phrases like “Solana’s fuel is running out” have gained traction, illustrating how quickly narrative momentum can reverse in stressed markets. Historically, sustained readings below 20 on the Fear & Greed Index have often preceded short-term bounces, as excessive fear creates oversold conditions ripe for contrarian positioning. However, such rebounds typically require a catalyst, and in the current environment, that catalyst remains uncertain.

Technically, Bitcoin’s daily RSI has plummeted to 9.05, a level that suggests extreme oversold conditions rarely seen outside major market dislocations. This raises the possibility of a reflexive bounce, particularly if macro conditions stabilise or if institutional buyers step in near key support levels. El Salvador recently deployed over US$100 million in purchases at the US$90,000 level, suggesting strong hands view this zone as a strategic entry point. Whether Bitcoin can hold this critical threshold in the face of ongoing liquidations and macro uncertainty will likely determine near-term market direction.

In summary, the current crypto sell-off is not an isolated event, but rather part of a broader reassessment of risk across global markets. It reflects the convergence of three powerful forces: a macro regime shift driven by sticky inflation and delayed monetary easing, a violent derivatives-driven deleveraging, and a collapse in market sentiment that has pushed fear to multi-month extremes.

While technical indicators hint at potential exhaustion, any sustainable recovery will depend on a stabilisation in equity markets, a reduction in liquidation pressure, and a recalibration of Fed expectations. Until then, the path of least resistance for crypto remains downward, with US$90,000 standing as the last line of defence before deeper levels come into play.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-crashes-13-per-cent-as-fed-rate-cut-hopes-fade-sp-500-correlation-hits-0-95-20251118/

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
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Lian Argues Long-Term Shiba Inu Holders Show True Conviction in Crypto

Lian Argues Long-Term Shiba Inu Holders Show True Conviction in Crypto
  • Anndy Lian criticized the hype surrounding new meme-coin traders, highlighting the long-term commitment of Shiba Inu holders.
  • Lian emphasized that Shiba Inu holders have endured years of market volatility, showcasing true conviction in their investments.
  • Lian questioned the praise given to traders who experienced short-term losses in newly launched meme coins.
  • Shiba Inu experienced massive price fluctuations, with its value dropping nearly 90% from its all-time high.
  • Despite significant losses, many Shiba Inu holders have maintained their investments for over a year.

Blockchain advisor Anndy Lian has criticized the hype around new meme-coin traders, emphasizing the commitment of long-term Shiba Inu holders. Lian recently shared his views on social media, questioning the celebration of short-term speculators who endure brief losses in new tokens. According to Lian, it is the Shiba Inu holders who have weathered years of market volatility that deserve true recognition.

Shiba Inu’s History of Volatility

Shiba Inu has experienced dramatic price fluctuations since its launch in August 2020. The token started at an extremely low price of $0.000000000056. In October 2021, it reached an all-time high of $0.00008845, marking an astronomical surge.

However, Shiba Inu has faced a severe price drop from its peak. The coin has lost nearly 90% of its value, currently priced at $0.000009122. This ongoing volatility has led to many investors holding their positions through both rapid price increases and large drawdowns.

Despite the setbacks, many Shiba Inu holders have remained committed to their investments. Recent reports show that over 1.17 million holders have kept their Shiba Inu tokens for more than a year, enduring these market fluctuations. Lian applauds their persistence, suggesting they have displayed more conviction than short-term traders in newer meme coins.

New Meme Coin Traders and Short-Term Losses

Lian recently reacted to the celebration of a trader who suffered a $30,000 loss within 24 hours while holding a new Solana meme coin. The trader’s perseverance through this brief volatility was praised as a show of “conviction.” Lian, however, expressed skepticism, pointing out that a three-day-old token and a 24-hour loss pale in comparison to Shiba Inu’s years of market swings.

 

Lian argues that long-term Shiba Inu investors have endured much more substantial challenges. He believes their resilience, not the short-term speculative gains of new traders, should be celebrated.

“If holding a Solana meme coin through a $30,000 loss counts as conviction, Shiba Inu holders deserve Nobel prizes for their perseverance,” Lian stated.

This comparison highlights the differences between short-term speculators and long-term investors in the crypto market. While new meme coins like those on Solana can attract quick attention, they do not represent the same level of commitment shown by Shiba Inu’s longstanding supporters.

SHIB Price and Long-Term Commitment

Shiba Inu price continues to fluctuate, with a recent seven-day loss of 1.05% and a 13.94% drop over the past month. Despite the decline, Shiba Inu holders remain steadfast. Even with the challenges, many continue to hold their tokens, embodying the true spirit of long-term conviction.

Shiba Inu’s journey from humble beginnings to its peak and subsequent decline highlights the volatility of the crypto market. Investors who have stuck with the coin through thick and thin are a testament to the enduring power of long-term commitment. According to Lian, their ability to hold through such market turbulence stands as a model of true perseverance.

 

Source: https://parameter.io/lian-argues-long-term-shiba-inu-holders-show-true-conviction-in-crypto/

 

Anndy Lian is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur who is known for his work in the government sector. He is a best selling book author- “NFT: From Zero to Hero” and “Blockchain Revolution 2030”.

Currently, he is appointed as the Chief Digital Advisor at Mongolia Productivity Organization, championing national digitization. Prior to his current appointments, he was the Chairman of BigONE Exchange, a global top 30 ranked crypto spot exchange and was also the Advisory Board Member for Hyundai DAC, the blockchain arm of South Korea’s largest car manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. Lian played a pivotal role as the Blockchain Advisor for Asian Productivity Organisation (APO), an intergovernmental organization committed to improving productivity in the Asia-Pacific region.

An avid supporter of incubating start-ups, Anndy has also been a private investor for the past eight years. With a growth investment mindset, Anndy strategically demonstrates this in the companies he chooses to be involved with. He believes that what he is doing through blockchain technology currently will revolutionise and redefine traditional businesses. He also believes that the blockchain industry has to be “redecentralised”.

www.anndy.com
j j j